Značka: stocks

Terra (LUNA) at risk of 50% drop if bearish head-and-shoulders pattern plays out

Terra (LUNA) may fall to nearly $25 per token in the coming weeks as a head-and-shoulders (H&S) setup develops, indicating a 50% price drop, according to technical analysis shared by CRYPTOPIKK.H&S patterns appear when the price forms three peaks in a row, with the middle peak (called the “head”) higher than the other two (left and right shoulders). All three peaks come to a top at a common price floor called the “neckline.”Traders typically look to open a short position when the price breaks below the H&S neckline. However, some employ a “two-day” rule where they wait for the second breakout confirmation when the price retests the neckline from the downside as resistance, before entering a short position.Meanwhile, the ideal short target for traders comes out to be at length equal to the maximum distance between the head and the neckline. In LUNA’s case, the price has now been heading toward the same H&S short target, currently near $25, as shown in the chart below.LUNA/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingViewMeanwhile, the volume recorded during the H&S breakout appears consistent, underscoring that the ongoing downtrend has enough bearish sentiment. This raises risks of further declines in the Terra market.LUNA’s daily momentum indicators, primarily the relative strength index (RSI) and the money flow index (MFI), have both entered their respective oversold regions, which some might consider to be a buy signal. CRYPTOPIKK recognized that they could prompt the LUNA price to rebound but said “the trend still seems [to be] heading down.”Where’s the bottom?The bearish outlook appears as LUNA trades under the pressure of strong macroeconomic catalysts, mainly the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to unwind its $120 billion a month asset purchasing program entirely by March, followed by the first interest rate hike from its current near-zero levels.Tightening monetary policies had started hurting assets that had been bullish when these policies were loose. That includes some sections of the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin (BTC). So, LUNA seems to have been tailing Bitcoin’s losses against the ongoing market uncertainty, especially as it sits atop a year-over-year profit of 3,200% versus BTC’s 11.50% gains.Related: Defying the bear market, this automated strategy is up 15% so far in 2022LUNA/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewIn its short history as a financial asset, LUNA’s downtrends have typically come to exhaustion as it tests its 50-week simple moving average (50-week SMA; the blue wave in the chart below) as support. That price floor was near $30 at the press time.LUNA/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingViewMeanwhile, on the daily timeframe chart, LUNA has been testing its 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA) for a potential rebound. Should it happen, LUNA’s next upside target appears to be near $75, as shown in the chart above.Conversely, a decisive move below the 200-day EMA wave may trigger the H&S setup toward $25.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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House members call for an end to lawmakers trading stocks — is crypto next?

Congresspeople currently HODLing or actively trading in crypto may have to stop doing so while in office if recent pushes to ban lawmakers from investing in stocks gain enough support.In a Monday letter addressed to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, 27 members of the U.S. House of Representatives called for action “to prohibit members of Congress from owning or trading stocks.” Among the bipartisan group of lawmakers who signed onto the letter was Illinois congressperson Bill Foster, who is also a member of the Congressional Blockchain Caucus. In addition, the letter seems to have support from politicians diametrically opposed on major issues like Progressive Democrat Rashida Tlaib and Republican Matt Gaetz, who is reportedly under investigation by the Justice Department for allegedly violating sex trafficking laws and obstruction of justice.Members of Congress are currently allowed to buy, sell and trade stocks and other investments while in office, but are also bound to disclose such moves by the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act, or STOCK Act, passed in 2012. This piece of legislation requires lawmakers to report any purchase, sale or exchange over $1,000 within 30 to 45 days but provides minimal financial and legal consequences for not filing in time. The Monday letter noted that the STOCK Act “had been violated hundreds of times just since 2020.” “It’s clear the current rules are not working,” said the letter to Pelosi and McCarthy. “Congress should close these loopholes by simply banning members from owning or trading individual stocks while in office. In addition to ensuring that members’ access to information doesn’t advantage them over the public when trading stocks, as the STOCK Act sought, this would end the potential corruption of lawmakers pursuing policy outcomes that benefit their portfolios.”The House members added:“There is no reason that members of Congress need to be allowed to trade stocks when we should be focused on doing our jobs and serving our constituents. Perhaps this means some of our colleagues will miss out on lucrative investment opportunities. We don’t care. We came to Congress to serve our country, not turn a quick buck.”Senators Jon Ossoff and Mark Kelly proposed a similar piece of legislation for the U.S. Senate on Jan. 12. Ossoff referenced a survey from the advocacy group Convention of States Action, which found that roughly 76% of voters said that lawmakers and their spouses had an “unfair advantage and should not be allowed to trade stocks while serving in Congress.”Speaker Pelosi does not seem to have responded to the letter from House members. However, when questioned about a possible ban on lawmakers being allowed to trade stocks in December, she said “we’re a free-market economy — they should be able to participate in that.”Democratic lawmaker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — whose name did not appear on the letter to Speaker Pelosi and Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy — said in December she believed members should neither hold nor trade individual stocks, hinting that to do so would allow them to “remain impartial about policy making.” She added that she extended this belief to holding digital assets and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC). Related: House memo details Congress’ priorities ahead of crypto CEO hearingCointelegraph reported last Tuesday that seven members of Congress from both the Senate and House had declared investments in crypto during their time in office. Among lawmakers with the highest reported exposure were New Jersey Representative Jefferson Van Drew and Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, who disclosed a 2020 investment of $250,000 in a trust operated by Grayscale, and a 2021 BTC purchase of up to $100,000, respectively.Cointelegraph reached out to Representative Bill Foster for comment, but did not receive a response at the time of publication.

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Bitcoin shoots to $44,000 as US inflation hits 7.8% in December

The latest figures from the United States Bureau of labor statistics show that the (Consumer Price Index) CPI hit 7% in December. Bitcoin (BTC) was volatile prior to the announcement, fluctuating over $2,000 from lows of $41,000 to $43,000 on Wednesday morning. Upon release of the figures, the price continued its upward climb, touching $44,000. Prior to the announcement, Twitter was rife with speculation. According to a poll by @coinbureau, 53% of his 580,000 followers expected CPI to overshoot the consensus estimation of 7% inflation.Macroeconomic specialist and cryptocurrency soothsayer Lyn Alden was on the money.December CPI comes out tomorrow and has a decent shot at reaching 7%+ year-over-year.But then unless monthly inflation accelerates from here, the year-over-year figure will likely peak within Q1 2022. pic.twitter.com/7hjA3ehAXI— Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) January 11, 2022The graph for inflation from the FED over the past 10 years is eye-opening. Since the pandemic, marked in grey, the inflation level plummeted before beginning a dizzying climb to 7%.Related: Bitcoin crash ahead? Expert warns higher inflation could whip BTC price to $30KCastle Island Ventures’ Nic Carter was more tongue-in-cheek prior to the data update. In anticipation of more inflation rises, he joked that he was “looking forward to the inflationista cope if CPI prints double digits”. Inflation rates have become of paramount concern to developed countries around the world, but particularly for the United States. 7% is the highest inflation rate since the 1980s. Traditional markets including the S&P kicked off in the green, up 0.36%, while BTC was up 2.8% during the morning’s action.

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IMF: Bitcoin matured to ‘an integral part of digital asset revolution’

Crypto is no longer an obscure asset class within the financial ecosystem, but a growing correlation with the stock market undercuts the “investment hedge” role of Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies, according to new International Money Fund (IMF) research.A blog post accompanying the survey highlights new risks associated with the growing interconnectedness between virtual assets and financial markets. Penned by IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department director Tobias Adrian as well as economist Tara Iyer and Research deputy division chief Mahvash S. Qureshi, the article claims that the increasing correlation between crypto assets and stocks “limits their perceived risk diversification benefits and raises the risk of contagion across financial markets.”“Crypto assets such as Bitcoin have matured from an obscure asset class with few users to an integral part of the digital asset revolution,” the article read, adding that this transition comes along with financial stability concerns. Nothing that BTC and Ether (ETH) rarely correlated with major stock indexes before the pandemic, the authors agreed that crypto assets helped diversify risk for investors by acting as a hedge against swings in other asset classes. “But this changed after the extraordinary central bank crisis responses of early 2020,” the article reads, adding that crypto and stocks surged hand in hand as investors’ risk appetite grew.60-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and S&P 500 index. Source: IMFThe correlation coefficient between BTC and the S&P 500 index has jumped 3,600%, going from 0.01 to 0.36 after April 2020. This means that the two asset classes have been more closely rising and falling together since the coronavirus pandemic.Related: What should the crypto industry expect from regulators in 2022? Experts answer, Part 1With stronger correlation comes greater risks for Bitcoin, according to IMF experts. The growing interconnectedness between crypto and equity markets would permit the transmission of shocks that can destabilize financial markets. Noting that crypto assets are no longer on the fringe of the financial system, the authors summarized:“Given their relatively high volatility and valuations, their increased co-movement could soon pose risks to financial stability especially in countries with widespread crypto adoption.”The experts further called for a coordinated global regulatory framework “to guide national regulation and supervision and mitigate the financial stability risks stemming from the crypto ecosystem.”Last month, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath made a similar call for a global policy regarding crypto. She argued that if countries were to ban crypto then they would not have any control over offshore exchanges that are not subject to their country’s regulations.

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'Most bullish macro backdrop in 75 years' — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week in a strange place — one which is eerily similar to where it was this time last year.After what various sources have described as an entire twelve months of “consolidation,” BTC/USD is around $42,000 — almost exactly where it was in week two of January 2021.The ups and downs in between have been significant, but essentially, Bitcoin remains in the midst of a now familiar range.The outlook varies depending on the perspective — some believe that new all-time highs are more than possible this year, while others are calling for many more consolidatory months.With crypto sentiment at some of its lowest levels in history, Cointelegraph takes a look at what could change the status quo on shorter timeframes in the coming days.Will $40,700 hold?Bitcoin saw a trying weekend as the latest in a series of abrupt downward moves saw $40,000 support inch closer.Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $40,700 on major exchanges before bouncing, a correction which has since held.Ironically, it was that very level which was in focus on the same day in 2021, that nonetheless coming during what turned out to be the more vertical phase of Bitcoin’s recent bull run.Last September also returned the focus to $40,700, which acted as a turning point after several weeks of correction and ultimately saw BTC/USD climb to $69,000 all-time highs.Now, however, the chances of a breakdown to the $30,000 zone are unreservedly higher among analysts.“Weekly Close is just around the corner,” Rekt Capital summarized alongside a chart with target levels. “Theoretically, there is a chance that $BTC could perform a Weekly Close above ~$43200 (black) to enjoy a green week next week. Weekly Close under ~$43200 however & BTC could revisit the red area below.”BTC/USD annotated candle chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ TwitterBitcoin ultimately closed at $42,000, since hovering at around that level in what could turn out to be some temporary relief for bulls.“I think market puts in a lower high,” fellow trader and analyst Pentoshi forecast, adding that he believes $40,700 will ultimately fall.An increasingly alluring target, meanwhile, lies at last summer’s $30,000 floor.Consensus forms over dire outlook for cashThe macro picture this week is particularly complicated for risk asset fans, with Bitcoin and altcoins no exception.What the future holds, however, varies considerably from one pundit to another.The United States Federal Reserve is broadly seen to start raising interest rates in the coming months, this making investors de-risk and causing a headache for crypto bulls. “Easy money,” which began flowing in March 2020, will now be much harder to come by.The bearish viewpoint was summarized neatly by ex-BitMEX CEO, Arthur Hayes, in his latest blog post last week.“Let’s forget what non-crypto investors believe; my read on the sentiment of crypto investors is that they naively believe network and user growth fundamentals of the entire complex will allow crypto assets to continue their upward trajectory unabated,” he wrote. “To me, this presents the setup for a severe washout, as the pernicious effects of rising interest rates on future cash flows will likely prompt speculators and investors at the margin to dump or severely reduce their crypto holdings.”This week sees the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data for December released, numbers which will likely feed into the story of surprise inflation gains.Hayes is far from alone in worrying over what the Fed may bring to crypto this year, with Pentoshi among others likewise calling a temporary end to the bull run.“And the final question is, can crypto ignore the Fed if it decides to go all out wielding a deflationary machete? I doubt it,” analyst Alex Krueger concluded in a series of tweets on the issue this weekend. “‘Don’t fight the Fed’ applies both ways, up and down. If the Fed is *too hawkish* then Houston, we have a problem.”There were some optimists left in the room. Dan Tapiero, Founder and CEO of 10T Holdings, told followers to “ignore” the recent rout and focus on an unchanged long-term investment opportunity.“Most bullish macro backdrop in 75 years,” he said. “Booming economy supported by massive negative real rates. Fed will never equalize rates with inflation. Stay long stocks and Bitcoin and ETH. Hodl through short term volatility. Real Dollar cash savings will continue to lose value.”Here’s a look at the Effective Fed Funds Rate and Inflation Rates when the Unemployment Rate was at 3.9%, as it is today.Find the outlier… pic.twitter.com/zU1zRj1uXC— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) January 7, 2022Tapiero highlighted data compiled by Charlie Bilello, founder and CEO of Compound Capital Advisors.RSI hits two-year lowsAmid the gloom, not everything is pointing to a protracted bearish phase for Bitcoin specifically.As Cointelegraph has been reporting, on-chain indicators are calling for upside in droves — and historical context serves to support those demands.This week, it’s Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) which continues to headline, reaching its lowest levels in two years.#Bitcoin RSI has been this low just 2 other times in the last 2 years. Looks like a bottom is near and bounce due. Let’s see pic.twitter.com/qhQ1pD8yEl— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) January 9, 2022

RSI is a key metric used to determine whether an asset is “overbought” or “oversold” at a given price point.Plumbing the depths at $42,000 suggests that such a level really is considered too extreme by the market, and a rebound should occur to balance it. By contrast, last January, RSI was sky high and conversely well within “overbought” territory, while BTC/USD traded at the same price.“The Bitcoin RSI is on the lowest point in 2 years on the daily. March 2020 & May 2021 were the last ones. And people flip bearish here / want to short,” a hopeful Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe commented.BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) with RSI. Source: TradingViewCointelegraph noted similarly bullish hints on the monthly RSI chart last week.Hash rate recoups Kazakhstan lossesAnother blip from last week already “curing itself” comes from the realm of Bitcoin fundamentals. After hitting new all-time highs throughout recent weeks, Bitcoin’s network hash rate took a hit when turbulence in Kazakhstan comprised internet availability.Kazakhstan, home to around 18% of hash rate, has since stabilized, allowing the hash rate to mostly return to prior levels of 192 exahashes per second (EH/s).At one point down to 171 EH/s, responses to what may have reminded some of last May’s China mining ban appear to have lifted hash rate and preserved record-breaking miner participation.Bitcoin’s network difficulty, despite the upheaval, still managed to put in a modest increase this weekend and is currently on track to do so again at its next automated readjustment in just under two weeks.Live Bitcoin hash rate chart screenshot. Source: MiningPoolStats“Going up forever,” on-chain analyst Dylan LeClair commented about the classic mantra, “price follows hash rate.”For context, China’s mining rout caused hash rate to decline by 50%. It took around six months to recoup the losses.“What if…?”Someone who has long been saying that it’s high time for a Bitcoin trend reversal is quant analyst PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow-based BTC price models.Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, LINK, ICP, LEO, ONECurrently weathering a test of his creations — and the accompanying storm of social media criticism — PlanB nonetheless remains more optimistic than most when it comes to mid to long-term price action.“I know some people have lost faith in this bitcoin bull market,” he acknowledged this weekend. “However we are only halfway into the cycle (2020-2024). And although BTC experiences some turbulence at $1T, the yellow gold cluster at S2F60/$10T (small black dots are 2009-2021 gold data) is still the target IMO.”Stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) chart. Source: PlanB/ TwitterHe was referring to the stock-to-flow value for Bitcoin, gold and other assets as part of his stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) model, which calls for an average BTC/USD price of $288,000 during the current halving cycle.Closer to home, however, a more simplified comparison between Bitcoin this cycle and its two previous ones saw a feasible trajectory beginning with a U-turn now. What if … pic.twitter.com/te36HkFAbQ— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) January 9, 2022

A separate model, the floor model, which demanded $135,000 per bitcoin by the end of December, has now been discarded after failing to hit its target for the first time ever in November.

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New year, same 'extreme fear' — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) begins its first full week of 2022 in familiar territory below $50,000.After ending December at $47,200 — far below the majority of bullish expectations — the largest cryptocurrency has a lot to live up to as signs of a halving cycle peak remain nowhere to be found.With Wall Street set to return after stocks conversely ended the year on a high, inflation rampant and interest rate hikes looming, 2022 could soon turn out to be an interesting market environment, analysts say.So far, however, all is calm — BTC/USD has produced no major surprises for weeks on end.Cointelegraph takes a look at what could change — or continue — the status quo in the coming days.Stocks could see 6 months of “up only”Look no further than the S&P 500 for an example of the state of play when it comes to U.S. equities.The index achieved no fewer than 70 all-time highs in 2021, rounding out the year with a flourish, even as risk assets looked far less appetising.Bitcoin was among them, trailing below the $50,000 mark with the only noticeable events coming in the form of peaks and troughs around thin holiday liquidity.With that said, central bank policy is widely tipped to provide a potential cat among the pigeons in the coming months. The Federal Reserve has signaled two interest rate hikes this year, and the market’s ability to absorb them is seen as a key test for asset performance.For the first chunk of the year, however, it may well be a continuation of the latest flavor of “business as usual” — stocks adding to all-time highs.“History suggests the beginning of rate rise regimes actually result in stock market strength for 6 months,” Charles Edwards, founder of asset manager Capriole, noted in a series of tweets this week. “10 of the 13 regimes (77%) since the 1950s had positive stock market returns over the first six months, averaging +5.1%. We are approaching the start of a new regime now.”Edwards said that while such circumstances are generally “good” for Bitcoin, upheaval further down the line would likely mean that stocks take a beating in the long term thanks to the rate hikes.“Without significantly higher economic growth (yet to be seen), it is unlikely any rate rise programs by the Fed will have a long runway,” he continued. “Bitcoin will be volatile in this period, both an effect of stock market volatility, but also from sharp Fed course corrections.”Inflation will be on the radar again next week, with Jan. 12 scheduled for the latest U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data for December.U.S. inflation chart. Source: Tradingeconomics.com$40,000 stays support floorBitcoin spot price action has provided precious little by way of interesting cues lately, staying in a well-defined range.A tussle between bulls and bears has in fact been somewhat underwhelming in nature beyond rhetoric found on social media — volumes are thin, interest from retail low, and large players continue to maintain sell levels nearby.Two levels I find important for #Bitcoin.▫️ $48,000, the one we’re currently rejecting on.▫️ $49,400, the one that caused the latest correction and should flip for a bullish test of potentially mid $55k. pic.twitter.com/zISQu2IcDV— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 2, 2022Responding to levels to watch from Cointelegraph contributor Micha¹el van de Poppe Sunday, popular trader and analyst TechDev agreed that $48,000 represents “a little brick wall.”To the downside, Van de Poppe said that he was eyeing the area between $40,000 and $42,000, with action above that corresponding to “accumulation.”Bitcoin, however, has a habit of upending even the strongest trend at the least expected moment.For fellow trader Pentoshi, there is little cause for celebration at levels much below $60,000, these last appearing over a month ago.“I will long logical areas in a downtrend. I will be macro bearish until 58-60k reclaim. And bullish at local areas,” he summarized about his position over the weekend.Pentoshi and others urged a pivot to Ether (ETH) on the basis of altcoin strength, thus providing a convenient way to “de-risk” with Bitcoin underperforming.That strength is captured in Bitcoin’s market cap dominance, which has now slipped under 40% for the first time since May, data from TradingView shows.Bitcoin dominance 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingViewOn-chain metrics predict “sustainable price trend”For those looking for a silver lining to the uninspiring price action, on-chain metrics provide no shortage of relief.The further away the market gets from last month’s snap correction, the more enticing Bitcoin looks as an investment punt based on historical trends.In its latest newsletter issued Dec. 31, Capriole director Ryan McCoy highlighted the shifting tide in investor selling habits as aligning with the latter stages of previous corrections.Of particular interest is Short Term Holder spent profit output ratio (SOPR) from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which shows the extent of gains or losses from recently-spent coins — specifically those which last moved in the past 155 days.Currently with a median score below 1, SOPR shows that coins spent at a loss are declining in numbers — a potential form of seller exhaustion.“Typically, when this metric starts to bottom and then rise, a more sustainable price trend has begun,” McCoy explained. “The 30-day median is still below 1 (implying that the average price of the coins moved is lower than the price they were purchased at), but signs of life like this after a substantial corrective event suggest we are likely in the latter stages of the current correction.”Bitcoin short-term holder SOPR (30-day moving average) chart. Source: CaprioleCointelegraph has reported extensively on hodlers’ habits when it comes to BTC, and long-term investors remain steadfast in their conviction not to sell. “Despite the -38% drop since November, Long-Term Holders continue to diamond hand Bitcoin,” McCoy summarized.“The last time Bitcoin was at $47K, long-term holdings were 10% lower. To date there has been insignificant distribution despite the volatility. That’s bullish.”Fundamentals have (almost) never been betterContinuing the positivity, network fundamentals underscore the strong belief of another cohort of essential Bitcoin market participants.Miners, despite seeing all-time highs of $69,000, are accumulating, not selling, their coins.At the same time, the network hash rate is at all-time highs of its own, these last seen in March and April before the upheaval of the Chinese ban sparked months of migration.Should the old adage of “price follows hash rate” remain true, miners’ faith in long-term profitability of Bitcoin provides a key indicator of where the market is going.“Metrics like this are effectively old-guard fundamental outlook material and are largely overlooked by newer and sexier methods of explaining price dynamics, supply and demand, but cannot be ignored for their ability to explain institutional and infrastructural support for securing the protocol that at this point effectively underpins the entirety of the crypto economy,” Capriole added.Bitcoin hashrate chart. Source: MiningPoolStatsHash rate is currently over 190 exahashes per second (EH/s), according to estimates from MiningPoolStats.Later this week, meanwhile, Bitcoin network difficulty is set to increase by around 2.4%. Bitcoin difficulty chart. Source: BlockchainThis reflects the competitiveness of the current mining landscape, and difficulty should shortly tackle 25 trillion again for the first time since the pre-China peak, data from Blockchain shows.With every increase, difficulty reinforces network security, creating an even more robust ecosystem.How sustainable is “extreme fear” this time?Bitcoin sentiment began 2022 with serious cold feet, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index measuring “extreme fear.”Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, LUNA, FTM, ATOM, ONEAs Cointelegraph reported, investor emotions have become highly sensitive to even smaller price movements within the current range.Fear & Greed reflects this, moving up 8 points since the weekend despite price action offering little change.At the time of writing, the Index measured 29/100, nevertheless in the “fear” zone. Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.meAs noted by on-chain analytics resource Ecoinometrics, meanwhile, such sentiment has historically failed to play out for long.“Bitcoin is back in extreme fear. Historically that means there is limited downside at 30 days,” it tweeted alongside a chart compiling the index and BTC/USD.Crypto Fear & Greed Index vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Ecoinometrics/ Twitter

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Bitcoin holds $48K as final Wall Street session caps 60% YTD gains for BTC

Bitcoin (BTC) chipped away at its latest gains on Dec. 31 as the final trading session of 2021 opened on Wall St.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin posts 60% year-to-date gainsData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked BTC/USD as it meandered around the $48,000 mark, having reached multi-day highs of $48,550 hours earlier.The uptick had coincided with the December expiry on Bitcoin options, by far the biggest date on the options calendar at nearly $6 billion. Conspicuous buying was recorded on U.S. professional exchange Coinbase Pro in the run-up to the event.With stocks heading higher in Asia, all eyes were on the potential for a final flourish against a background of concern over inflation in 2022.The S&P 500 broke its 70th all-time high of the year Thursday at 4,806 points, but next year could look very different for equities thanks to the Federal Reserve. For Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, the future was bright — at least for H1.”A lot of people think we might give some of this back as we enter the new year,” he told Bloomberg. “That could happen, but I think we’re going to maybe go above 5,000 during the first half of the year on excitement that finally we may be moving Covid from a pandemic to an epidemic and on the realization that inflation is moderating.”BTC/USD looked set to end the year around $19,000 higher than its starting position. Zooming out, Scott Melker, the popular trader and podcast host known as the Wolf of all Streets, argued that the long-term BTC/USD spoke for itself.”You want to zoom out and feel bullish? Take a gander at the BTC yearly chart. Up Only,” he said as part of Twitter comments Friday. BTC/USD 1-month candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewAt least $100,000 by December 2022Also in a celebratory mood, meanwhile, was PlanB, the quant analyst well known for his enduring but increasingly controversial stock-to-flow Bitcoin price models.Related: Bitcoin can hit $333K ‘parabolically’ if this BTC price fractal plays outReflecting, he noted that Bitcoin was up 60% in USD terms in 2021, with stocks at 27% and gold trailing with -4%.Despite being nowhere near where he hoped it would be, BTC/USD remains true to stock-to-flow’s permitted deviation, and thus in line to hit its predicted average price of $100,000 by 2024.An accompanying survey from earlier in the week which garnered almost 180,000 responses revealed that the majority of respondents believe that, one year from now, Bitcoin will trade somewhere between $100,000 and $200,000.Bitcoin Twitter survey. Source: Twitter

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Bitcoin daily losses near $4K as S&P 500 hits 69th all-time high of 2021

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped nearly $4,000 on Dec. 28 as the market offered a sharp reminder that the bull run would need to wait. BTC analysts eyes $44,000BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting lows of $48,335 on Bitstamp at Dec. 28’s Wall Street open.The pair had passed $52,000 the previous day, this marking a three-week high, before pressure from sellers halted progress.At the time of writing, Bitcoin circled $49,000 as traders took the opportunity to remind audiences of Bitcoin’s ongoing active range.”Humans get bullish at resistance. It’s a thing,” Scott Melker summarized.”Still ranging. Nothing has changed.”The $52,000 trip indeed failed to attack any of the price levels previously identified as turning points, notably $53,000 — Bitcoin’s $1 trillion market cap mark.Popular trader Pentoshi meanwhile identified $44,000 as a potential floor should the downward trend accelerate. Slightly longer timeframes offered a similar outlook based on recent behavior.BTC 4hr:Fulcrum around which price has been pivoting.Bounce or back to the bottom of the channel? pic.twitter.com/BTJR5rN87I— Nunya Bizniz (@Pladizow) December 28, 2021Zooming out, however, and there were bearish considerations on the horizon. William Clemente, the lead insights analyst at Blockware, identified a potential repeat of behavior immediately after 2017’s old all-time high, which led to an entire year of a bear market.”Judgment day is coming for BTC,” he warned in Twitter comments.Concerns loom over miracle equities readoutsBitcoin thus presented a contrast to macro Dec. 28 as the S&P 500 hit its 69th all-time high of the year.Related: Veteran Bitcoin hodlers are still selling record low amounts of BTC despite 70% gains in 2021Almost a record in itself, stock market exuberance was already ruffling feathers among pundits concerned about a potential chasm between the numbers and empirical reality.Just to put things into perspective: The S&P 500 may close today at another ATH, it would be the 69th ATH this year, 2nd most ever only behind 77 ATHs in 1995, but the average S&P 500 comp is down 18% from its ATH, suggesting a massive amount of weakness underneath the surface. pic.twitter.com/3RsPFP1Ajs— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) December 27, 2021

As Cointelegraph reported, the United States Federal Reserve will have a decisive role to play in shaping 2022’s market climate when it comes to Bitcoin’s performance.In the meantime, however, BTC/USD faces a low-liquidity — and thus potentially high-volatility — holiday season.

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Countdown to the yearly close: 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week near $51,000 as the end of 2021 draws near and traders down tools for the holidays.After a $50,000 Christmas, Bitcoin continues to take stock of a year in which it has gone from $29,000 to $69,000 and halfway back again.Expectations were certainly not for such eerie calm to round out December — a blow-off top, the majority argued, should have already taken the market to $100,000 and beyond.Instead, after dipping to $41,800, a slow grind through familiar territory is how Bitcoin appears to be finishing off what has been a post-halving year full of surprises.With mixed emotions characterizing the end of Q4, Cointelegraph takes a look at what could shape BTC price action for the remaining few days of 2021.Bitcoin on shorter timeframes: “Gently does it”Despite concerns that thin liquidity could spark increased spot price volatility during the holiday season, so far, the opposite is true — Bitcoin is quiet, possibly too quiet.The weekend saw little by way of unusual price moves, with a brief dip below $50,000 subsequently returning to the upside.At the time of writing, $51,000 is forming a focus once more, with limited action up or down, data fro Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows. BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewFor popular Twitter trader Pentoshi, this was reason enough to lie in wait for the more important $53,000 zone to return before acting.“Eyes still on 49.2 and 53-55k range per prev charts (contested territories),” he confirmed late on Sunday.He noted the “clean” nature of BTC/USD on weekly timeframes, with the pair just above the midpoint in a multi-month range with $58,000 as its upper bound and $32,000 as its lower bound.$58,000, he added in comments, could be the “most defining spot” for chartists in 2022.Cautious in the short term, meanwhile, was filbfilb, co-founder of trading platform Decentrader, who despite flagging multiple bullish signals on Christmas Day warned that current BTC/USD levels may be something of a bull trap.Unfortunately, PA now looks trappy at these highs, caution advised.— filbfilb (@filbfilb) December 25, 2021For him, the 50-day moving average, currently at $54,700, would be a bullish trigger point for the new year.Stock-to-flow lives to fight another yearThey may be facing a barrage of criticism, but the perennial stock-to-flow Bitcoin price models — and their creator, PlanB — refuse to give up.According to tracking account S2F Multiple, BTC/USD should ideally be trading at above $97,000 this week, but reality has other ideas.With the latest drawdown from all-time highs, Bitcoin is challenging the capabilities of a model series that has so far never been invalidated.This has provided for contention — stock-to-flow uses two standard deviation bands around a key trajectory to monitor price, and Bitcoin currently sits between them. While in fact nowhere near invalid, the model has courted claims that its range of acceptable price action is too wide to be useful.These were exacerbated when PlanB appeared to say that he would abandon the models should BTC/USD not trade at $100,000 by the end of 2021. “To be clear: I have no doubt whatsoever that bitcoin S2FX is correct and #bitcoin will tap $100K-288K before Dec2021,” he wrote in part of comments in early November.He subsequently retracted those claims, stressing that the standard deviation bands would dictate any technical invalidation. As such, stock-to-flow (S2F) and its spin-off stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX), both remain in play.“Imagine thinking a model that has stayed within 1 standard deviation band for 3yrs has failed,” he countered. “IMO we are in the exact same spot as March 2019 when I published S2F model: at the low end of the 1sd band. DYOR. Look at the chart. Your choice.”Bitcoin stock-to-flow chart as of Dec. 27. Source: Buy Bitcoin WorldwideS2F requires an average $100,000 price tag for Bitcoin this halving cycle, while S2FX ups that to $288,000.PlanB’s floor model, also accurate throughout Bitcoin’s history, failed to track the monthly close for the first time in November.Beware the open interest time bombBitcoin spot price action could give everyone a headache on thin holiday volumes, but a key area to watch is derivatives.After the clearout earlier this month, open interest in Bitcoin futures has been creeping back up. This in and of itself is unremarkable, but should expanding open interest combine with a conversely declining price, the stage is set for pain, filbfilb warns.Most of the time risk can be found in OI: price up, OI up ok, price down OI down not so bad, prices down OI flat / up, get rekt.— filbfilb (@filbfilb) December 26, 2021

He reasoned, however, that nuances mean the relationship between price and open interest moves is not as simple, but would “save” traders’ positions in volatile periods.Concerns have subsided, meanwhile, following the flushing out of excessive leverage across derivatives markets in the $42,000 rout.Despite leverage since returning, funding rates are neutral at $50,000, a conspicuous change from just several weeks ago, and confidence is building that sustained price upside can now continue as a result.On-chain indicators governing buyer and seller behavior, meanwhile, are also showing signs of a potential turnaround.“Big thing I keep my eyes on is for when the trend for both net realized profit and loss decrease to low levels,” Twitter account On-Chain College noted Sunday, highlighting data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. “Tells me that sellers may be exhausted, and we potentially could have more drastic price movement if buyers step in.”Bitcoin net realized profit/ loss annotated chart. Source: On-Chain College/ TwitterLiquidity caution spills over to macroMacro markets presented a now standard range of risk issues for the holiday break, these nonetheless also apt to cause greater than average moves thanks to reduced liquidity. Chart traders bewareThe last half of December is a time when chart pattern breakouts should be viewed with great suspicion. Many false breakouts occur during thinly traded holiday periods. pic.twitter.com/jdUvk6pxye— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) December 20, 2021

The prognosis for the coming days was thus “either the headline reel will spur ugly intraday moves on holiday-thinned liquidity, or volatility will remain so flatline, that if it were an ECG, the doctors and nurses would be yelling code blue,” Bloomberg quoted Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at forex broker Oanda, as saying.Such headlines could revolve around Coronavirus or China, with Asian stocks down Monday and European indexes looking peaky at the open.U.S. equities hit fresh all-time highs in the run-up to the Christmas break, capping a momentous year in which the S&P 500 alone saw 68 new records.The U.S. dollar, however, is yet to recover its previous intense uptrend, with the U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) treading water into the end of the year. This could provide at least some respite for Bitcoin traders should stocks also benefit.DXY remains near its highest since June 2020.U.S. dollar currency index (DXY) 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingViewBitcoin “melts faces when people least expect it”Bitcoin traders are getting more, not less, fearful as 2021 fades.Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, MATIC, NEAR, ATOM, HNTAs per the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a popular sentiment gauge which factors in a range of variables to produce an overall impression of trader emotions, the market is far from out of the woods — even above $50,000.As of Monday, Fear & Greed stands at 40/100, characterizing “fear,” having hit highs of 45/100 last week.Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.meThe Index has shown that sentiment has been particularly sensitive to even small price fluctuations since the rout. The implication is therefore that jitters could spark more emotional trading reactions, and a price event could result in a snowball effect up or down.Under normal circumstances, however, a mass capitulation event only occurs during periods of “extreme greed,” in which the Index measures 90/100 or more.Taking a more optimistic tone, meanwhile, Blocksteam CSO Samson Mow argued that most lay market paritcaptans are too gloomy this Christmas.Lots of bearish sentiment in response to my tweet, plus many can’t seem to understand it either (bUt iT WaS 50k a wHiLe aGo), which makes me think we’re going to have some massive green candles soon. #Bitcoin usually melts faces when people least expect it. https://t.co/UiK91ij9Qn— Samson Mow (@Excellion) December 24, 2021

“Bitcoin usually melts faces when people least expect it,” he said during a Twitter discussion.

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Argo Blockchain among most traded stocks by Fidelity customers

Financial services company Fidelity Investments’ U.K. arm reported that over the last 12 months, customers were most interested in trading shares of crypto mining firm Argo Blockchain. In a Thursday report, Fidelity said Argo Blockchain ranked third among the top five stocks most actively traded by its customers in 2021 — the others were Rolls-Royce, British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines, oil giant BP and Lloyds Banking Group. Argo, which Fidelity described as a “trending” stock, also ranked third among stocks traded by Self-Invested Personal Pension, or SIPP, investors. However, the financial services company hinted that Argo may not make the top five next year. According to Fidelity, “new arrivals” knocked the mining firm off the list of most actively traded stocks in December, including COVID-19 test manufacturer Genedrive, fast-fashion retailer Boohoo Group and engineering firm Smiths Group.One of the first crypto mining firms to be listed on the London Stock Exchange in 2018, Argo Blockchain has steadily expanded its operations. Argo became more accessible to U.S. investors through a public listing on the Nasdaq in September. In addition, the firm is currently constructing a facility on a 320-acre land plot in West Texas, aiming for “access to up to 800 [megawatts] of electrical power” to mine Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies. Helios Update! Our Head of Design & Construction, Matt Nackino, walks us through an update of where things are at with our Helios facility build. #ARB $ARBK pic.twitter.com/cdzzcd9v4b— Argo (@ArgoBlockchain) December 20, 2021According to data from its website, Argo’s facilities in North America are currently using 45 MW of electricity to generate more than 1.6 exahashes per second of Bitcoin. As of the end of November, the company reported it had generated 1,831 BTC and held 2,317 Bitcoin or “Bitcoin Equivalent” — roughly $93 million and $118 million at the time of publication, respectively.Related: Argo Blockchain mines record 597 BTC during Q3 2021Shares of Argo are currently trading on the London Stock Exchange at a price of $130.10, having fallen more than 65% since reaching an all-time high of $380.96 in February.

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Missed out on hot crypto stocks in 2021? It paid just to buy Bitcoin and Ethereum, data shows

Bitcoin (BTC) may have fluctuated in price this year, but BTC remains a better play than the biggest crypto stocks.New data currently circulating shows that for all the growth in the industry surrounding Bitcoin, it still pays simply to buy and hold.Stocks fail to compete with BTC, ETHLooking at the stock performance of firms with the largest BTC allocations on their balance sheets, it becomes immediately apparent that it was more profitable to hold BTC than those equities — at least this year.“Buying crypto stocks to outperform coins is hard,” Three Arrows Capital CEO Zhu Su commented alongside comparative performance data from Bloomberg.Both Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) have fared significantly better than stocks from companies such as MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN), despite the successes of both in 2021.Crypto stocks vs. BTC vs. ETH chart. Source: Zhu Su/ TwitterThe figures highlight the differences between traditional and crypto markets, the latter having a degree of freedom of expression long absent from equities, commodities and other assets.“Markets are forward looking. Crypto even more so bc it’s not under anyone’s control. It’s the only free market left in the world,” popular trader and analyst Pentoshi noted earlier this month.For retail entities in particular, a dollar-cost averaging strategy involving allocation into BTC, mitigating short-term volatility, thus looks all the more attractive.Miners struggle against BTCFurther data from the largest publicly-traded mining corporations supports the trend. Related: Bitcoin nears $50K — Here are the BTC price levels to watch nextVersus their inception and even stock price at the time of their initial public offering (IPO), the vast majority are significantly lower in BTC terms.Only BitFarms (BITF) is currently turning a profit as of December.Miner stocks vs. BTC comparison chart. Source: Dylan LeClair/ TwitterNevertheless, the extent of progress among United States mining industry participants has been eye-opening, and as Cointelegraph reported, listing deals continue to flow in.Texas, looking to become a mecca for mining, could see demand for power jump several fold by next year.

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Historically accurate 'momentum indicator' hints at possible Bitcoin breakout ahead

Bitcoin (BTC) could see a “massive bullish move” if a classic trigger from the 2021 bull run repeats this week.In a tweet on Dec. 16, on-chain analyst Matthew Hyland, known by the Twitter handle Parabolic Matt, drew attention to Bitcoin’s momentum indicator.Momentum indicator hints at potential “massive bullish move”While still under $50,000, Bitcoin has already broken out of a long-term downtrend on the momentum indicator, which measures closing prices against those from a period in the past.Two such breakouts have occurred this year, and after each one, BTC/USD went on to see considerable upside.“The previous two times it broke out of a multi-month downtrend this year, a massive bullish move followed,” Hyland wrote as part of comments.BTC/USD vs. momentum indicator annotated chart. Source: Matthew Hyland/ TwitterWhile not a guarantee of “up only” price action, the momentum data joins a large number of on-chain metrics flashing bull signals this month — a list that keeps growing.Hyland is known for his highly optimistic price forecasts, and last month caused a stir by predicting that Bitcoin would hit $250,000 in January 2022 while invalidating one of the popular stock-to-flow price models.#Bitcoin bottom structure on the RSI and Momentum indicators (daily time frame) look very similar to what occurred in September before the reversal up started•Momentum has broken out•RSI needs a close above resistance to confirm breakout•Bitcoin price waiting to breakout pic.twitter.com/XDwiUsSj2U— Matthew Hyland (@Parabolic_Matt) December 15, 2021In further analysis, he noted that both the momentum indicator and Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) on daily timeframes are mimicking behavior from September, when the market put in a local bottom before rising to current $69,000 all-time highs.Dollar dives post FedSpot price action was meanwhile quieter on Dec. 15, Bitcoin lingering around $49,000 despite a conspicuous drop in the U.S. dollar.Related: Bitcoin sheds ‘dumb money’ as retail buys most BTC since March 2020 crashThe U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), which measures USD against a basket of trading partner currencies, reversed its extended bull run last week, with Dec. 1 seeing a pronounced comedown, data from TradingView shows.DXY 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingViewTraditionally inversely correlated with BTC, DXY’s drop follows a boost for crypto and equities alike courtesy of the Federal Reserve.

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