Značka: stock-to-flow

Bitcoin sees record Stock-to-Flow miss — BTC price model creator brushes off FTX 'blip'

Bitcoin sees record Stock-to-Flow miss — BTC price model creator brushes off FTX 'blip'

podľa | nov 19, 2022 | 0 |

Bitcoin (BTC) is now further than ever from its target price according to the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model.The latest data shows that BTC/USD has deviated from planned price growth to an extent never seen before.Stock-to-Flow sets grim new recordWith BTC price suppression ongoing in light of the FTX scandal, an already bearish trend has only strengthened.This has implications for many core aspects of the Bitcoin network, notably miners, but some of its best-known metrics are also feeling the heat.Among them is S2F, which is seeing its price forecasts come under increasing strain — and criticism.Enjoying great popularity until Bitcoin’s last all-time high in November 2021, the model uses block subsidy halving events as the central element in plotting exponential price growth through the years.S2F allows for significant price deviations and is not “up only” — but even accounting for these, current targets are far higher than spot price.According to dedicated monitoring resource S2F Multiple, Bitcoin should trade at just over $72,000 on Nov. 19, giving a multiple of -1.47.On Nov. 10, the multiple reached -1.5 — a record negative reading in S2F’s lifetime — as the FTX impact hit the market.Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Multiple chart. Source: S2F Multiple/ TwitterPlanB: “Feels like the world has ended”An alternative iteration of S2F model deviation from analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin produced similar conclusions about this month’s price action.Related: Bitcoin price may still drop 40% after FTX ‘Lehman moment’ — Analysis“Price has now strayed further below the S2F line than ever before,” its creator, Philip Swift, wrote in part of an accompanying Twitter post. “Currently a variance of -1.26 vs. the previous all-time low of -1.21 back in 2011.”Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/ TwitterNonetheless, PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst responsible for the creation — and now, defense — of S2F, remains cool on its utility.“It feels like the world ended, but FTX will probably be just a small blip on the long term radar,” he argued in his own tweet.PlanB has fielded increasingly strong accusations over the model in 2022, these including claims that its basis is fraudulent.In response to the increasing deviation between target and spot price, he maintained that even a comparatively wide range for price to act within and still keep the model valid was still more useful than no insight at all.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Čítaj viac
BTC price recovers to 3-day highs as new whale support forms at $19.2K

BTC price recovers to 3-day highs as new whale support forms at $19.2K

podľa | jún 20, 2022 | 0 |

Bitcoin (BTC) held steady at the June 20 Wall Street open as nervous traders waited for a short-term trend decision.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewTrader flags Bitcoin “macro bottoming period”Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD climbing to just shy of $21,000 at the time of writing, a three-day high.The weekend had spooked the majority of the market and liquidated speculators with a trip to $17,600, marking Bitcoin’s lowest levels since November 2020. Now, with United States equities cool at the start of the week, comparative calm characterized the largest cryptocurrency.“Nice reaction off of the bottom of our 16-20k demand zone,” popular trading account Credible Crypto commented on the weekend’s price action. “12 hours of bleeding erased in 2. No confirmation this is the reversal yet though. Focus on key HTF levels and don’t get too caught up staring at the red 5 minute candles- they can be erased in an instant.”When in doubt, zoom out — Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) June 20, 2022The idea of focusing on HTF, or higher timeframe price structures was shared by various commentators as the week began.“BTC is in a macro bottoming period for this cycle,” fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital continued. “Over the next years, investors will be rewarded for buying here. Yet, many still wait for $BTC to go even lower to buy. It’s like waiting for Summer to come, and finally it’s 33C outside but now we hope for 35C.”Rekt Capital additionally described a $20,000 BTC price as a “gift” to buyers.“BTC data science shows that anything below $35,000 is an area that has historically yielded outsized ROI for long-term Bitcoin investors,” part of a tweet on the day read.On-chain analytics resource Whalemap meanwhile highlighted dip-buying by major investors at levels below the seminal $20,000.New whale level has formed over the weekend’s dump.The accumulation is quite large, >100k BTC, and happened on the 18th of June. Prior to that, a large portion of Dec 2018 Bitcoins have moved from the previous 4k bottom… Could be OTCLooks like a great short-term support pic.twitter.com/rJbV26ZifG— whalemap (@whale_map) June 20, 2022

PlanB: Bitcoin is simply “oversold”Bitcoin heading below its prior halving cycle all-time high meanwhile increased pressure on the popular Stock-to-Flow BTC price models — and criticism of them.Related: ‘Worst quarter ever’ for stocks — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekAs market analyst Zack Voell openly called S2F a “scam” on social media, quant analyst PlanB, its creator, maintained that the theory behind it remained sound.”Most indicators (S2F, RSI,200WMA, Realized etc) are at extreme levels,” he explained in part of a Twitter post on June 18. “Does that mean that all indicators are ‘invalidated’ ‘debunked’? No. Investing is a game of probabilities and indicators give situational awareness: BTC is oversold.”Voell’s comments had come after BTC/USD dipped below the second standard deviation band relative to the S2F predicted price for the first time.Bitcoin isn’t dead.But the Stock-to-Flow scam absolutely is. pic.twitter.com/ZYZ0NR8n92— Zack Voell (@zackvoell) June 19, 2022

As PlanB noted, Bitcoin’s relative strength index, or RSI, was at its lowest levels in history over the weekend. A classic overbought vs. oversold indicator, RSI essentially suggests that BTC/USD is trading much lower than its fundamentals warrant, based on historical context.BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with RSI. Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Čítaj viac
Bitcoin bounces to $30.7K as analyst presents Stock-to-Flow BTC price model rehash

Bitcoin bounces to $30.7K as analyst presents Stock-to-Flow BTC price model rehash

podľa | jún 3, 2022 | 0 |

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh local highs overnight into June 3 after United States equities cut losses.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewWall Street provides short-term reliefData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining steadily to hit $30,670 on Bitstamp before consolidating. The mood among stocks was more solid during the June 2 session, with the S&P 500 reclaiming the majority of its lost ground over the past month. The Nasdaq Composite Index ended up 2.7%.Analyzing the crypto market cap compared to the Nasdaq, popular analyst TechDev noted what could be an incoming inflection point.Potentially interesting. #BTC / $NDQ pic.twitter.com/i0k8oEyhw3— TechDev (@TechDev_52) June 2, 2022Fellow trader and analyst Pentoshi meanwhile issued a sobering outlook for the S&P 500 on weekly timeframes going forward.My current working theory for #SPX and markets in general is this. I had talked about 3840 in the past being a key spotI believe we just had our swing low and that the next weekly will look like the red part drawn on the chart w/ a higher low than last week and thus risk on ST https://t.co/o7uv2b40BF pic.twitter.com/TOOn6KP9Th— Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) May 22, 2022

Bitcoin itself continued to face calls for a retracement, which would eclipse May’s $23,800 lows.Crypto Tony still targeted between $22,000 and $24,000, demanding a break of a trendline currently near $32,500 to consider long scalping.“Bitcoin held the $30K level, so long would still be intact from the $29.3K region,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe meanwhile added on his short-term strategy. “Now flipping $30.3K would be continuation towards $31.8K possible.”At the time of writing, BTC/USD lay at around $30,500.Timmer: Bitcoin supply and demand needs “fresh take”Zooming out, one on-chain analyst became the latest to take on the increasingly controversial Stock-to-Flow (S2F) BTC price model.Related: This classic Bitcoin metric is flashing buy for first time since March 2020Having failed to validate its $100,000 end-of-year prediction in 2021, Stock-to-Flow has become increasingly sidelined as its creator, PlanB, fields criticism.While acknowledging the model’s potential shortcomings, Jurrien Timmer, head of global macro at on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, revisited it, offering a tweak which he argued would serve to increase its utility.“It’s time for a fresh take on Bitcoin’s supply/demand dynamics,” a dedicated Twitter thread began.Timmer proposed taking into account Bitcoin’s supply curve to produce a more conservative trajectory for price growth. The result, he considered, had retroactively already captured BTC price action more accurately than the raw S2F predictions.The close-up below shows that this more modest supply model has been (in hindsight) more accurate than the original S2F’s projections for this halving cycle. /15 pic.twitter.com/65WgS4Hody— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 2, 2022

“If accurate, It suggests still robust but less pie-in-the-sky upside than before. Maybe even several years of sideways, in line with the halving cycle, and likely continued volatility,” he continued. PlanB had noted that the May monthly close had been Bitcoin’s lowest since December 2020.As Cointelegraph reported, the next block subsidy halving event is increasingly figuring as a line in the sand for a return to bullish strength.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Čítaj viac
Načítava

Získaj BONUS 8 € v Bitcoinoch

nakup bitcoin z karty

Registrácia Binance

Burza Binance

Aktuálne kurzy