Značka: Stimulus

Bitcoin derivatives metrics reflect traders’ neutral sentiment, but anything can happen

Bitcoin’s (BTC) last daily close above $45,000 was 66 days ago, but more importantly, the current $39,300 level was first seen on Jan. 7, 2021. The 13 months of boom and bust cycles culminated with BTC price hitting $69,000 on Nov. 10, 2021.It all started with the VanEck spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund being rejected by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Nov. 12, 2020. Even though the decision was largely expected, the regulator was harsh and direct on the rationale backing the denial.Curiously, nearly one year later, on Nov. 10, 2021, cryptocurrency markets rallied to an all-time high market capitalization at $3.11 trillion right as U.S. inflation as measured by the CPI index hit 6.2%, a 30-year high.Inflation also had negative consequences on risk markets, as the U.S. Federal Reserve acknowledged on Nov. 30, 2021, that inflation is more than just a “transitory” problem and hinted that tapering could occur sooner than expected.More recently, on March 10, the U.S. Senate passed a $1.5 trillion package, which now awaits President Joe Biden’s signature. The new money is the first budget increase since former President Donald Trump left office.Data shows pro traders are not willing to hold leveraged longsTo understand how professional traders are positioned, including whales and market makers, let’s look at Bitcoin’s futures and options market data. The basis indicator measures the difference between longer-term futures contracts and the current spot market levels. The Bitcoin futures annualized premium should run between 5% to 12% to compensate traders for “locking in” the money for two to three months until the contract expiry. Levels below 5% are extremely bearish, while the numbers above 12% indicate bullishness.Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.chThe above chart shows that this metric dipped below 5% on Feb. 11 and hasn’t yet shown signs of confidence from pro traders.Still, one would not be wrong in assessing that an eventual break of the $44,500 resistance would catch those investors off guard, creating a strong buying activity to cover short positions.Options traders are less worried about further downside riskCurrently, Bitcoin seems pretty undecided near $40,000, making it difficult to discern a direction in the market. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers overcharge for upside or downside protection.If those traders fear a Bitcoin price crash, the skew indicator will move above 10%. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 10% skew. That is precisely why the metric is known as the pro traders’ fear and greed metric.Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.chAs displayed above, from Feb. 28 until March 8, the skew indicator ranged between 7% and 11%. Albeit not precisely signaling fear, these option traders were overcharging for downside protection by a wide margin.Related: Bitcoin spikes above $40K as Russia sees ‘positive shifts’ in Ukraine war dialogueThe past three days showed a remarkable improvement and currently, the 4% delta skew shows more of a balanced situation. From the BTC options markets perspective, there’s a similar risk for unexpected upward and downward price swings.The mixed data from Bitcoin derivatives offer an interesting opportunity for bulls. The cheap futures premium offers long leverage opportunities at a relatively low cost and the downside protection is running at its lowest level in thirty days.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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3 reasons why Ethereum price can drop below $3K by the end of 2021

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) reached an all-time high around $4,867 earlier in November, only to plunge by nearly 20% a month later on rising profit-taking sentiment. And now, as the ETH price holds $4,000 as a key support level, risks of further selloffs are emerging in the form of multiple technical and fundamental indicators.ETH price rising wedgeFirst, Ether appears to have been breaking out of “rising wedge,” a bearish reversal pattern that emerges when the price trends upward inside a range defined by two ascending — but converging — trendlines.Simply put, as the Ether price nears the Wedge’s apex point, it risks breaking below the pattern’s lower trendline, a move that many technical chartists see as a cue for more losses ahead. In doing so, their profit target appears at a length equal to the maximum wedge height when measured from the breakout point.ETH/USD weekly price chart featuring Rising Wedge. Source: TradingViewAs a result, Ether’s rising wedge downside target comes out to be near $2,800, also near its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA). Bearish divergenceThe bearish outlook in the Ether market appears despite its ability to bear the massive selling pressures felt elsewhere in the cryptocurrency market in recent weeks.For instance, Bitcoin (BTC), the leading crypto by market cap, fell by 30% almost a month after establishing its record high of $69,000 in early November, much higher than Ether’s decline in the same period. That prompted many analysts to call Ether a “hedge” against the Bitcoin price decline — also as ETH/BTC rallied to its best levels in more than three years.But it does not take away the fact that Ether’s recent price rally has coincided with a decline in its weekly relative strength index (RSI), signaling a growing divergence between price and momentum.ETH/USD weekly price chart featuring divergence between price and RSI. Source: TradingViewAdditionally, the recent ETH price pullback also had the RSI oscillator fall below 70, a classic sell indicator.Fed “dot plot”More downside cues for Ether come ahead of the Federal Reserve two-day policy meeting starting on Dec, 14 when the U.S. central bank will discuss how quickly it may need to taper its $120 billion a month asset purchasing program to gain enough flexibility for potential rate hikes next year.Just last month, the Fed announced that it would scale back its bond-buying at the pace of $15 billion per month, suggesting that the stimulus would eventually cease by June 2022. Nonetheless, a string of recent market reports showing a tightening jobs market and persistently mounting inflationary pressures prompted the Fed officials to end tapering “perhaps a few months sooner.”20 CenBanks hold meetings next week as inflation keeps rising w/final decisions for 2021 due at Fed, ECB, BoJ, BoE which together responsible for half of world econ. CenBank balance sheets have risen in lockstep to ATHs, but now there could be divergence. https://t.co/GgOLGCNbjR pic.twitter.com/mrrhwUVcet— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) December 12, 2021Market anticipations also adjusted, with a Financial Times survey of 48 economists anticipating the stimulus to end by March 2022 and most respondents favoring a rate hike in the second quarter.The period of loose monetary policies after March 2020 has been instrumental in pushing the ETH price high by over 3,330%. Therefore, the increasing likelihood of tapering can certainly put the brakes on the current rally, if not the bull market as a whole, according to some ana.From there I expect a very aggressive approach from the Fed because they’ll recognize we are in a bubble and something extreme needs to be done.Then we get our multi-year bear market.— K A L E O (@CryptoKaleo) December 10, 2021

Markets anticipate the Fed will update its policy statement and summary of economic projections (SEP) this week. In doing so, more central bank officials would adjust the “dot plot” to favor an earlier-than-anticipated rate hike against rising inflation.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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