Značka: prediction

Bitcoin $100K possible by chipping away at gold’s market share: Goldman Sachs

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to close 2021 above the long-expected $100,000 level, but experts believe the psychological horizon is still achievable by taking gold’s market share, albeit over a more extended period.In a note released to investors on Tuesday, Goldman Sachs co-head of global FX and EM strategy Zach Pandl hypothesized that if the largest cryptocurrency could overtake 50% of the store of value market share over the next five years, BTC price would increase to just over $100,000, marking a compound annualized return of 18%.While the current market cap of BTC is close to $884 billion, Goldman Sachs estimates the float-adjusted market cap of Bitcoin is under $700 billion, accounting for one-fifth of the “store of value” market. The said market is not crowded, though. The only other participant of Goldman’s store of value market is gold, with an available investment at $2.6 trillion.Despite its ups and downs, Bitcoin still managed to top Goldman Sachs’ 2021 return scorecard with over 60% yearly returns. Gold is placed at the bottom in the same chart with a 4% yearly loss.Yearly returns scorecard. Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment ResearchRelated: Wait-and-see approach: 3/4 of Bitcoin supply now illiquidGoldman Sachs experts believe that the demand for BTC will not be harmed by the hot debate surrounding the Bitcoin network’s energy consumption. While a recent study claims the Bitcoin ecosystem consumes eight times the energy of Google and Facebook combined, New York Digital Investment Group estimates that Bitcoin mining will not represent more than 0.4% of global electricity consumption over the next decade.As detailed in a Cointelegraph New Year Special, Bitcoin saw a bumpy ride over the last year. Many experts believed that $100,000 was an easy target for the flagship cryptocurrency for 2021. However, BTC closed the year around $47,000 after touching an all-time high around $69,000 in November, falling short of analysts’ ambitious target.

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Historically accurate 'momentum indicator' hints at possible Bitcoin breakout ahead

Bitcoin (BTC) could see a “massive bullish move” if a classic trigger from the 2021 bull run repeats this week.In a tweet on Dec. 16, on-chain analyst Matthew Hyland, known by the Twitter handle Parabolic Matt, drew attention to Bitcoin’s momentum indicator.Momentum indicator hints at potential “massive bullish move”While still under $50,000, Bitcoin has already broken out of a long-term downtrend on the momentum indicator, which measures closing prices against those from a period in the past.Two such breakouts have occurred this year, and after each one, BTC/USD went on to see considerable upside.“The previous two times it broke out of a multi-month downtrend this year, a massive bullish move followed,” Hyland wrote as part of comments.BTC/USD vs. momentum indicator annotated chart. Source: Matthew Hyland/ TwitterWhile not a guarantee of “up only” price action, the momentum data joins a large number of on-chain metrics flashing bull signals this month — a list that keeps growing.Hyland is known for his highly optimistic price forecasts, and last month caused a stir by predicting that Bitcoin would hit $250,000 in January 2022 while invalidating one of the popular stock-to-flow price models.#Bitcoin bottom structure on the RSI and Momentum indicators (daily time frame) look very similar to what occurred in September before the reversal up started•Momentum has broken out•RSI needs a close above resistance to confirm breakout•Bitcoin price waiting to breakout pic.twitter.com/XDwiUsSj2U— Matthew Hyland (@Parabolic_Matt) December 15, 2021In further analysis, he noted that both the momentum indicator and Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) on daily timeframes are mimicking behavior from September, when the market put in a local bottom before rising to current $69,000 all-time highs.Dollar dives post FedSpot price action was meanwhile quieter on Dec. 15, Bitcoin lingering around $49,000 despite a conspicuous drop in the U.S. dollar.Related: Bitcoin sheds ‘dumb money’ as retail buys most BTC since March 2020 crashThe U.S. dollar currency index (DXY), which measures USD against a basket of trading partner currencies, reversed its extended bull run last week, with Dec. 1 seeing a pronounced comedown, data from TradingView shows.DXY 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingViewTraditionally inversely correlated with BTC, DXY’s drop follows a boost for crypto and equities alike courtesy of the Federal Reserve.

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Bitcoin could 'drive people nuts' for months with $53K BTC price ceiling — analyst

Bitcoin (BTC) may spend “months” ranging between recent $42,000 lows and $53,000 and cause panic in the process, popular analysts warned on Dec. 6.Discussing the BTC price outlook on Twitter, Scott Melker, known as the Wolf of All Streets, said that ranging behavior could last well into 2022.Bitcoin price bottoms could sink still deeperAfter failing to reclaim even $50,000 after last week’s crash, BTC/USD is spawning bearish sentiment this week.As sentiment sits deep within in the “extreme fear” zone, Melker joined those steering clear of the sky-high short-term price predictions that were previously ubiquitous.”My general view. >53K again resumes the bullish case. 42K again puts 28K back in play,” he summarized. “Everything between the two numbers now is ranging chop that will drive traders into a panic. People will be extremely bullish at 53K and bearish at 42K if either is reached.”A further post put the timeframe for such price action to play out at “a few months.””December has a high probability of range-bound chop, the ideal time to take some time off from the charts, make a few well-thought-through trades, and recharge for next year,” filbfilb, co-founder of trading platform Decentrader, continued.Their comments mimic those of fellow popular trader Pentoshi, who made waves on Dec. 6 while acknowledging that Bitcoin could still dip to $30,000.Wouldn’t be surprised if this happens for $btc. It’s a real possibility. I would be prepared for it https://t.co/Qw4XggiDdV— Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) December 6, 2021That would place BTC/USD de facto back at its 2021 starting position and over 50% down against the year’s all-time highs.”Trading at a decent discount”Dec. 6’s Wall Street open, meanwhile, had barely any impact on Bitcoin, markets remaining comparatively steady as stocks saw a light move higher.Related: BTC sentiment ‘comparable to a funeral’ — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this weekAs critics took aim at Bitcoin’s alleged lack of ability to act as a store of value, proponents looked for clues as to whether the market was fairly valued after the sell-off.For analyst Willy Woo, the on-chain data said it all.”We’re currently trading at a decent discount,” he revealed, highlighting the Bitcoin Supply Shock Valuation (SSV) metric.SSV looks at the last time on-chain demand matched current levels, with the implication being that prices should be higher under current circumstances.This model does a look back on previous times that #bitcoin had similar on-chain demand.We’re currently trading at a decent discount.It’s a model for investors, not traders who can easily be liquidated well before the model plays out. pic.twitter.com/w9byxBiX6M— Willy Woo (@woonomic) December 6, 2021

Woo had previously noted that the most recent dip was accompanied by smallscale investors increasing their BTC exposure.

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