Značka: Markets

Bitcoin (BTC) hit ten-day lows at Tuesday’s Wall Street open as BTC price action followed a US stocks sell-off.Key points:Bitcoin price action reacts to contagion from an Asia stocks sell-off as it hits US markets.Chip makers are at the epicenter of the reversal with South Korea’s KOSPI Index closing the day down 10.8%Crypto long liquidations pass $500 million in 24 hours.Semiconductor giants fuel major Asia stock comedownSemiconductor-led losses from Asia spilled over into US trading. South Korea’s KOSPI Index finished the day down 10.8% in a single session, fueled by 14.8% losses for chip-maker SK Hynix, while Japan’s memory manufacturer Kioxia Holdings fell 18.3% on the day.In the US, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index was down just over 1% at the time of writing. Notably, semiconductor manufacturer Micron Technologies, which fell by more than 10% at the open, erased a rebound and saw its lowest levels since May 22.Micron Technologies one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewSemiconductor stocks are contending with intensifying scrutiny over the sustainability of hyperscaler capital expenditure. Investors increasingly question whether the underlying economics of AI infrastructure buildouts can justify their scale. Combined 2026 capex guidance from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta is now tracking toward $725–730 billion, with Wall Street projecting that figure could climb toward $900 billion in 2027. Alphabet posted its first cash burn on record in the second quarter, at $5.9 billion, even as its cloud unit posted 82% growth.Layered on top of the financing concerns are competitive pressures on US-based AI companies from Chinese startups. Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 open source model, first launched two weeks ago, was benchmarked competitively against top proprietary systems from Anthropic and OpenAI. This has intensified questions about the return profile assumed by the spending commitments of Western hyperscalers, given their capabilities may be replicated at a fraction of the cost.Crypto short liquidations pass $500 millionToday’s sell-off in the semiconductor and AI sector has not left Bitcoin unscathed. Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping below $63,000 for the first time since July 17.BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCrypto markets saw elevated long liquidations on the back of the day’s reversal, with data from CoinGlass putting these in excess of $510 million over 24 hours.Related: Markets eye Bank of Japan meeting on Friday as yen repeats 40-year US dollar lowsCryptocurrency liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassOn Monday, crypto analytics platform CoinAnk warned of the risk of a long liquidation “cascade” below $64,700.“Extremely large long liquidity has accumulated below this level,” it commented.CoinAnk added that to the upside, little resistance remained, with the area between $65,800 and $66,200 being a “major short liquidation zone.”

Digital infrastructure company Core Scientific more than doubled its second-quarter revenue as rapid growth in its artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC) colocation business continued to reshape its earnings profile following its pivot beyond Bitcoin mining.The company reported Tuesday that Q2 revenue increased to $164.2 million, up from $78.6 million a year earlier. Colocation revenue accounted for $136.7 million of the total, compared with just $10.6 million in the same period last year, while gross profit increased to $70 million from $5 million.Despite the revenue surge, Core Scientific reported a net loss of $1.15 billion, driven primarily by a non-cash accounting charge related to the rising value of outstanding warrants as its share price increased.The results underscore how several Bitcoin mining companies have diversified into AI and HPC infrastructure, seeking more stable, long-term revenue streams as demand for data center capacity surges.Once one of the world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin miners, Core Scientific now generates the bulk of its revenue from colocation services while maintaining a comparatively modest Bitcoin treasury of fewer than 1,000 BTC, according to industry data.Core Scientific shares fell more than 4% following the earnings release, trimming its year-to-date gains.Core Scientific (CORZ) stock is up 36% this year. Source: Yahoo FinanceRelated: CoreWeave shows how crypto-era infrastructure quietly became AI’s backboneAMD partnership expands AI footprintAlongside its earnings, Core Scientific announced a partnership with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), the semiconductor company that designs CPUs and AI-focused graphics processors competing with Intel (INTC) and Nvidia (NVDA).The agreement could ultimately support up to 2.5 gigawatts of leasable data center capacity. It is initially anchored by 15-year agreements covering 530 megawatts across several US sites beginning in 2027, with the potential to expand over time.Core Scientific said the broader partnership has the potential to generate more than $14 billion in contracted base revenue, while its total leased customer power capacity now stands at roughly 1.1 GW, representing more than $24 billion in potential contracted revenue.Earlier this month, IREN disclosed $2.8 billion in cloud contracts with AI developers, while Hut 8 unveiled a $9.8 billion lease agreement with an unnamed customer for capacity at its AI data campus.Related: Crypto market breakout could accelerate as AI trade cools, analyst says

Japan’s central bank is in focus this week as its next interest-rate meeting comes amid new 40-year yen lows against the US dollar.Key points: The Japanese yen is approaching new 40-year lows against the US dollar, nearly beating its latest record from last week.The Bank of Japan will decide on interest-rate changes on July 31, with rates already at 1%, their highest since September 1995.Analysts have been warning that the yen carry trade could unwind again, repeating a major crypto headwind from 2024.Dollar-yen seeks to reclaim 40-year recordData from TradingView showed USD/JPY approaching 164 on Tuesday, just a fraction below new 40-year highs seen last week.USD/JPY 12-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe yen’s status as a funding currency is making BoJ monetary policy have an outsized influence on global markets. Japan’s currency markets are characterized by minimal capital controls and unmatched liquidity among non-dollar currencies. Japan’s persistent current account and trade surpluses in earlier decades along with systemically low interest rates have made JPY the most important global funding currency. However, since Japanese inflation picked up in 2022, this has created the risk of carry trade unwinds accompanied by a liquidity crunch. On Thursday and Friday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will decide on whether to adjust its benchmark rate, which at 1.0% is currently at its highest since 1995.Markets expect rates to stay the same, with market-implied probabilities of a rate hold at 98%, given that policymakers enacted their latest raise in June. Prediction service Polymarket puts the odds of no change at 99% as of Tuesday.At the time, however, the BoJ suggested that fresh hikes would come later. In a summary from the June meeting, it referenced inflationary trends in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), coupled with historically low rates in place for the past three decades, as grounds for the change.“As for the future conduct of monetary policy, given that underlying CPI inflation has been approaching 2% and financial conditions have been accommodative, it is appropriate for the Bank to continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation, in response to developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions,” BoJ said.Since then, a concurrent headwind, the weakening of the yen, has gathered pace, staying above the key 160 level against the dollar despite a dip following the June rate hike.The BoJ previously noted the potential for a weaker yen to weigh on CPI growth, constricting consumer spending power.“Attention should also be paid to the point that, with firms’ behavior shifting more toward raising wages and prices recently, exchange rate developments are, compared to the past, more likely to affect prices, and that such moves could affect underlying CPI inflation through changes in inflation expectations,” its Outlook for Economic And Prices document, issued after its April meeting, read.Yen carry trade unwind risks global spreadFor crypto traders, developments in the yen are of key importance.  The yen carry trade, which can act as a liquidity source for crypto markets, is heavily influenced by BoJ moves to stabilize the yen’s exchange rate against the dollar. As Cointelegraph reported, interventions in August 2024 sparked a snap “unwinding” of the carry trade, with an immediate detrimental impact on Bitcoin and altcoins.Related: Rate path still divides investors: Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekNow, with USD/JPY building on new 40-year highs, concerns of a repeat are growing.“That trade only works if two conditions remain intact. Japanese interest rates remain exceptionally low. The yen remains broadly stable or continues depreciating,” analyst Ricky Ho wrote in his latest X commentary on Monday.Ho said that carry-trade unwinds are “rarely gradual” thanks to high amounts of leverage deployed by participants. He warned that any changes in BoJ policy could thus have wider-reaching consequences for a global economy already accustomed to the Japanese economic status quo.“Ultimately, we think investors remain too focused on whether the BOJ hikes in September, October or December. The more important issue is that the direction of policy has fundamentally changed,” Ho said.

Bitcoin (BTC) sought to build on local highs at Monday’s Wall Street open as US stocks opened in the green.Key points:Bitcoin approached new local highs with the start of the week’s first US trading session.Stocks also opened higher amid relief over a hiatus in the US-Iran war and potential progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.BTC price action defended two daily moving averages on Sunday’s weekly close.Bitcoin follows stocks higher as Iran news offers risk-asset tailwindData from TradingView showed BTC/USD spiking to near $66,000 as markets reacted to a pause in strikes between the US and Iran. BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAdditional reports cited an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman announcing that Tehran and Oman were “trying to establish mechanisms regarding maritime traffic” through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route currently closed.US WTI crude oil fell toward $82 per barrel on Monday before a modest rebound. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index were both up by around 0.3% at the time of writing.CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAcknowledging a potential stumbling block in the form of higher US bond yields, trading company QCP Capital voiced that they were anticipating tailwinds for the crypto market going forward. “Digital assets have generally outperformed equities in July despite a more challenging macro backdrop,” the firm wrote in its latest Market Color analysis. “BTC and ETH are up approximately 11.6% and 24.6% month-to-date, respectively, even as higher Treasury yields and periodic risk-off sentiment have weighed on broader markets.”QCP referenced developments around the CLARITY Act, a key piece of proposed crypto legislation still under consideration.“Market attention also remains on developments surrounding the proposed CLARITY Act, which continues to be closely followed by digital asset participants given its potential implications for the US regulatory framework,” it continued.BTC price support holds but remains fragileAmong Bitcoin traders, caution mixed with quiet optimism over BTC price action on shorter time frames.Related: Rate path still divides investors: Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekCrypto trader and analyst Michaël Van de Poppe highlighted that BTC was holding the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) as support. These stood at $64,289 and $63,261, respectively.“This is a strong signal for the markets to be betting on the long side of this asset, however, it’s still a little fragile,” he wrote in ongoing updates on X. “I’d much prefer to see a strong move to $66,000-67,000 over the next 1-3 days to see a continuous bid coming in.”BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël Van de Poppe on X.comData from CoinGlass showed crypto short liquidations spiking as the market rose, with these nearing $250 million over a 24-hour period.BTC/USD vs. crypto liquidations (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Bitcoin (BTC) heads into the end of July juggling volatility catalysts as the Federal Reserve reacts to US inflation.Key points:The Fed will deliver its latest decision on interest rates as US bond yields spike, with markets seeing a September hike as likely. June PCE inflation is due on Thursday after hitting a three-year high of 4.1% last monthSigns of a shift in the equities uptrend places the focus on Bitcoin’s macro correlation.Whales exchange inflows cool by 44% since June Markets remain split on rate outlookAttention turns once more to the US Federal Reserve this week, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), chaired by Kevin Warsh, set to announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, July 29.A combination of geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation pressures has reshaped expectations for Fed policy and put the possibility of further rate hikes back on the table as the US 2-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.3% last week. The latest data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently sees a 31% chance of a hike this week, with a hike at the September meeting having odds as high as 50%.Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME GroupThese rate hike expectations were tempered slightly as oil prices dropped 8% in the early hours of Monday as the US and Iran paused strikes. Rate hike odds therefore shifted from 37.4% to 33.7%. Ongoing developments in the Middle East thus continue to introduce volatility into the macroeconomic outlook, even as PPI inflation data released earlier in the month came in below expectations.Fed target rate probability comparison for July FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupCommenting, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company also noted a pending upward breakout in 30-year bonds. Although the long end of the bond curve now plays a diminished role in funding the US government, this could notionally add to pressure on Warsh as he shapes his language at the post-FOMC press conference.“The 30-year Treasury yield is also testing a key breakout level once again. In May, the 30-year yield saw a false break above the 5% level which has served as resistance since late 2023,” it summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic.US 30-year bond-yield data. Source: Mosaic Asset CompanyEven before the latest turmoil, new Fed chair Warsh had steered clear of dovish language on the economy and kept his post-FOMC statement and press conference notably brief.“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy,” he said at the time.PCE inflation seen falling from three-year highBeyond the FOMC, markets will be watching the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index on Thursday for fresh signals over the impact of the US-Iran war on inflation trends. The June print of the index, currently sits at three-year highs.PCE volatility can have a snap impact on risk-asset performance as traders reprice potential Fed reactions. June’s release coincided with Bitcoin dropping to macro lows around $58,000.Prefacing its latest analysis, the International Monetary Economics Network (IMEN) predicted that PCE would be moderately lower compared to May’s 4.1% year-on-year tally. “U.S. inflation: We currently expect June PCE inflation to be 3.7% year‑over‑year,” it wrote on X. US PCE inflation data (screenshot). Source: Bureau of Economic AnalysisCorrelation between Bitcoin and equities remains absentOn higher timeframes, correlations between Bitcoin and major equity indices have largely disappeared. Data from TradingView currently puts the daily correlation between BTC/USD and the S&P 500 with a 20-week loopback window as practically absent, at its lowest levels since March. Against the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, meanwhile, its current correlation coefficient of 0.11 was last observed in mid-February. While correlations on the weekly timeframe move slowly, bearish geopolitical and macro events have the potential to make the two asset classes move in lockstep again. BTC/USD one-week chart with rolling 20-week stocks correlation. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewFor now, corporate earnings in the US have continued to surpass expectations. However, given the historically high valuations, this is unlikely to shield the market from potential pullbacks. Several major US tech stocks saw significant drawdowns last week. The Magnificent 7 falling by an aggregate 5.3% through Friday after $GOOGL and $TSLA had already suffered sell-offs earlier in the week.In spite of this, “Alphabet, $GOOGL , is the single largest margin contributor after significantly beating earnings estimates,” the Kobeissi Letter commented on the topic at the weekend. “Meanwhile, 86% of reporting S&P 500 firms have so far beaten EPS estimates, while 80% have exceeded revenue expectations. AI is driving historic earnings growth.”S&P 500 net profit-margin data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X.comMosaic Asset Company highlighted the risks that the rate environment may exert on US equities.  “Rising rates across the yield curve could keep pressuring stock prices, where indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq peaked in early June and are now losing key support levels. At the same time, market breadth is deteriorating while the backdrop for seasonality is transitioning from a bullish tailwind to bearish headwind. Seasonality during mid-term election years also tends to produce lower average returns and larger drawdowns.”With these emerging hurdles, the S&P 500 is at risk of losing its bullish setup altogether, Mosaic warns.“The S&P already lost one key support level with the 50-day moving average (MA – black line). If trendline support in the triangle gives way, that could set up a test of the 200-day MA (green line) that’s currently near the 7,000 level (or 5% downside from current levels),” it added alongside an explanatory chart.S&P 500 data. Source: Mosaic Asset CompanyOn shorter time frames, the picture remains fluid, with a pause in hostilities between the US and Iran providing a bullish impulse across risk assets. US WTI crude oil dropped as low as $83 per barrel to start the week, having previously eyed $95.“The market is beginning to price-in a peace deal again,” Kobeissi responded.CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView“Boring” BTC price range tests 50-month trend lineBitcoin went on to seal new local highs after Sunday’s weekly close, reaching $65,680 on Bitstamp. Still in a familiar range, BTC/USD battled its 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) trend line, having previously flipped it to resistance in a copycat move from the 2022 bear market.BTC/USD one-day chart with 50-month EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCommenting on the current market setup, trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged resurgent sell-side pressure.“The more seller-dominant the volume becomes while Bitcoin is at resistance, the greater the chances for a rejection from here,” he warned X followers on Sunday.Rekt Capital brought the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) into the equation, describing price as “sandwiched” between it and its 50-month counterpart.“Continued price compression here is unsustainable and will eventually force major volatility,” he forecast. “And if the seller volume keeps coming in at this rate, then there’ll likely be a breakout on seller volume to precede a rejection from this local resistance area.”BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.comBinance whale inflows nearly halve since mid-JuneCommenting on the FOMC meeting and its impact on crypto markets, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant sees a potential knock-on effect for sell-side pressure on major exchanges.Related: BTC supply in profit eyes 60%, but analysis hints recovery may ‘roll back over’According to their data, BTC inflows from whales to Binance, have dropped by up to 44% since June 12, while retail inflows fell 22%.“This leaves retail inflows at roughly twice the level of whale inflows, with a gap of $3.9 billion,” contributor Amr Taha wrote in a blog post on Monday. “The divergence suggests that the composition of BTC transfers into Binance has shifted: retail participants are currently significantly more active than whales in sending BTC to the exchange.”Bitcoin whale inflows to Binance (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantTaha described the FOMC meeting as a “major macro catalyst” that could reshape the approach of all investor cohorts to the market.“With retail inflows now running at 2x whale inflows, Wednesday’s Fed decision could provide an important test of whether the current divergence between the two BTC cohorts persists or begins to converge,” he concluded.As Cointelegraph reported, Binance saw single-day withdrawals of over 9,000 BTC last week.

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US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) logged $70.62 million in net outflows on Friday, ending a five-day inflow streak.Ethereum funds saw $211.25 million in net inflows over the previous five sessions from July 17 to Thursday, according to SoSoValue data. They still posted $103.9 million in net inflows for the week ended Friday.Despite the outflows, Ethereum ETFs extended their weekly inflow streak to three straight and have attracted $337.74 million in net inflows so far in July.Spot crypto ETF flows have become one of the market’s most closely watched gauges of demand for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) through traditional investment products. Although other jurisdictions, including Hong Kong, have launched similar funds, US-listed ETFs account for the vast majority of assets and trading volumes.Daily spot Ethereum ETF net flows from July 17 to July 24. Source: SoSoValueBitcoin ETFs also end week with outflowsThe reversal followed a similar pattern in Bitcoin ETFs, which ended a seven-day inflow streak on Thursday and recorded another $240.08 million in net outflows on Friday.Bitcoin ETFs also extended their net inflow streak to three consecutive weeks, adding $103.90 million during the week ended Friday and $233.96 million so far in July. They followed a record June, when $4.5 billion flowed out of the funds. BTC traded just under $64,000 at the time of writing, tumbling from the week’s high of $66,892 on Tuesday, according to CoinGecko. ETH traded at $1,837, down from Wednesday’s weekly high of $1,954.Related: Bitcoin falls under $64K as surging US bond yields boost Fed rate-hike oddsJapan’s crypto reforms fuel $18.4 billion Bitcoin ETF forecastFollowing Japan’s recent overhaul of its crypto regulations, which is widely viewed as laying the groundwork for future spot Bitcoin ETFs, crypto management platform XWIN estimated that a mature Japanese spot Bitcoin ETF market could reach about $18.4 billion, equal to roughly 0.13% of the country’s $14.6 trillion in household financial assets.In an analysis posted at CryptoQuant, XWIN said the estimate assumes demand from existing crypto holders, new retail investors using brokerage accounts and institutional allocators. The report pointed to the US market as an example, noting that spot Bitcoin ETFs excluding Grayscale’s GBTC have accumulated roughly 1 million Bitcoin, demonstrating how regulated ETF products can connect traditional finance with digital assets.“The key is access,” XWIN said, adding that a Japanese spot Bitcoin ETF would allow investors to gain Bitcoin exposure through familiar brokerage and custody systems. It characterized the $18.4 billion figure as “an achievable upper-end market scenario.”Magazine: A quantum roadmap would push Bitcoin much higher: Charles Edwards

Bitcoin (BTC) fell more than 1.6% on Friday as its latest price correction accelerated after Wall Street opened.Key points:Bitcoin price downside pressure mounts on the back of multiple macro headwinds.US bond yields further a hawkish pivot in Fed interest-rate expectations.BTC price analysis sees a Binance “plunge protection team” attempting to shore up the market.Analysis warns US bond yields now “well above” targetData from TradingView showed BTC/USD approaching $64,000 as bulls struggled to preserve recent gains.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewGeopolitical tensions and macroeconomic headwinds weighed on crypto markets as appetite for risk assets faded.Trading firm Mosaic Asset Company said rising US Treasury yields were a key driver of the sell-off.“Massive moves are underway across the yield curve despite a weaker than expected consumer inflation report,” it wrote, referring to the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.Mosaic said the two-year yield was particularly prone to influence the outlook on Federal Reserve interest-rate changes, with risk assets suffering as a result of additional hikes.“The 2-year yield that tends to lead fed funds is now at 4.31% and sits well above the Federal Reserve’s target range,” it continued.US two-year Treasury yield one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed that markets still expected the Fed to leave rates unchanged next week, while pricing in a 0.25% hike in September as one of two increases expected before the end of 2026.Mosaic added that those expectations were “placing downward pressure on stock indexes.”Fed target-rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupBitcoin price “plunge protection team” returnsIn ongoing market monitoring, crypto trader Killa said BTC was repeating a familiar short-term trading pattern.Related: BTC supply in profit eyes 60%, but analysis hints recovery may ‘roll back over’“Textbook setup on $BTC. Seen this occur numerous times,” they said on X, repeating a post from early June in which they identified a “plunge protection team” active on the largest crypto exchange Binance.A chart accompanying the post showed layers of bid liquidity below the spot price, with its owners potentially not planning for the positions to be filled.BTC/USDT chart with order-book liquidity data. Source: Killa on X.comAnalytics account Wealthmanager focused on $64,000, warning that a break below that level would “invalidate” the low-timeframe market structure.Trader and analyst Rekt Capital, meanwhile, doubled down on the theory that BTC/USD was repeating behavior from its 2022 bear market, rejecting from the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) at $65,950.“Bitcoin hasn’t really offered any evidence to the contrary. Still following 2022 historical tendencies,” he summarized.BTC/USD one-month chart with 21, 50EMA. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are back in aggregate profit, but onchain data suggests it’s too early to confirm a new bull market.Key points:Bitcoin supply profitability is improving, but the trend must prove its staying power before confirming a market recovery, says CryptoQuant.Supply in profit is now approaching 60%, up from its 2026 low near 46% less than a month ago.Long-term holder onchain losses continue to dominate — a caveat in a bullish recovery. Bitcoin profit metrics risk second false breakoutAccording to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin supply in profit rebounded above the 50% mark in July.Bitcoin supply in profit. Source: CryptoQuant“Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit (%), the share of Bitcoin worth more than its acquisition price, has climbed to 57.5% as of July 22, up from 46.2% on June 30, the 2026 low,” CryptoQuant contributor thechessONCHAIN summarized.Bitcoin supply in profit data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantWith nearly 60% of the BTC supply now in profit, the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders (LTHs) is also improving. LTHs are entities whose Bitcoin has remained dormant for at least six months. SOPR measures the proportion of LTH coins moving onchain at a higher price relative to their previous transaction. Values above 1 indicate coins moving onchain mostly in profit, while values below 1 indicate LTH investors are moving coins at a loss, potentially indicating capitulatory activity.ThechessONCHAIN explained that previous bear markets have only ended when both supply in profit and LTH-SOPR meet specific requirements.The 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of LTH-SOPR should remain above 1 without falling below that level for weeks on end, while total supply in profit should be above 64%. “This cycle already produced one failed attempt: from April 28 to June 1 the LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 days, Supply in Profit reached 67%, and both rolled back over,” TheChessOnChain noted.Since then, the 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for more than 50 days.Bitcoin LTH-SOPR chart with 30-day SMA. Source: CryptoQuantBTC investment recovery stays fragileAs Cointelegraph reported earlier, Bitcoin supply in loss crossed the 50% mark in June, a threshold that has historically preceded bear-market bottoms.Related: Bitcoin will get ‘lift’ from Hyperliquid, Robinhood in next crypto bull market: Bitwise execHere, too, the data reveals similarities among Bitcoin bear markets, with the 50% loss mark sparking the final countdown to a BTC price cycle bottom in previous years.Demand, meanwhile, appears mixed, with weak spot-market interest meeting a rebound in institutional BTC allocation.

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Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $65,000 on Thursday as US stocks slid amid another round of escalation in Iran.Key points:Several days of US-Iran escalation are beginning to take their toll on crypto and stock market performance.Bitcoin sees three-day lows under $65,000 as traders diverge on the near-term outlook.A 21-day moving average trend line becomes important nearby support.Bitcoin wobbles as Iran destabilizes stocks, oil and US bond yieldsData from TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting three-day lows of $64,799 on Bitstamp.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewRisk assets felt the strain on the day as US President Donald Trump warned that he would blame Iran for recent Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabian commercial vessels.In a post on Truth Social, Trump said that he was “very disappointed” in the Houthis, referencing attacks on US ships from 2025.Source: Donald Trump on Truthsocial.comBy the close of New York trading, the S&P 500 had fallen 1.2% and the Nasdaq had shed 2.2%, while oil prices rallied to their highest since early June, with Brent crude topping $100 a barrel.CFDs on Brent crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView“Inflation expectations and interest rates are rising sharply again,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in a response on X.Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision, data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed an increasing chance of officials hiking by 0.25% — traditionally a headwind for crypto markets. Odds neared 40% on Thursday, while a week prior, they were closer to 12%.Fed target-rate probability comparison for July FOMC meeting. Source: CME GroupKobeissi, meanwhile, noted 18-month highs in US 10-year bond yields in a sign of fresh economic strain.Related: Bitcoin will get ‘lift’ from Hyperliquid, Robinhood in next crypto bull market: Bitwise execBTC price analysis offers hope of $73,000Bitcoin traders showed an increasing split over what short-term BTC price action would bring.Commentator Exitpump argued that the Bitcoin relief rally is likely to end by late July, reinforcing an established theory that has already gained traction.“July rally is coming to end, price is at resistance, close your longs, go short once price breaks below 65K,” they told X followers late on Wednesday.BTC/USDT perpetual contract four-hour chart. Source: Exitpump on X.comOthers were more hopeful, with trader Jelle arguing that price was “still making progress.”“Clear this local area and that void towards $70k opens up – could be a quick move to form the new range. Patience remains my game,” he reported.BTC/USD chart. Source: Jelle on X.comAccording to crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe, the 21-week simple moving average (SMA) at $64,073 was key.“Theoretically, the target area for Bitcoin is reached. However, as long as this stays above the 21-Day MA, I’m sure there will be a higher valuation for Bitcoin in the near-term,” an X post on the day stated, adding:“It’s facing the final hurdle for a big breakout, which is the $68,000 resistance zone. It’s been tested once, and this is the second test that we’ll be facing.”BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe on X.comVan de Poppe gave a $73,000 target should bulls successfully break through resistance.

Cointelegraph is committed to providing independent, high-quality journalism across the crypto, blockchain, AI, and fintech industries.All news, reviews, and analyses are produced with full journalistic independence and integrity. For more details on our standards and processes, please read our Editorial Policy.