Značka: Markets

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading roughly 40% below its October 2025 record high near $126,000 despite its ongoing recovery.BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingViewStill, some of the cryptocurrency’s loudest bulls, including billionaire investor Tim Draper and Fundstrat’s co-founder Tom Lee, have not backed down from their $250,000 year-end prediction, a target that would require more than a threefold rally from current levels.Is that realistic, or is Bitcoin’s latest drawdown a warning that the cycle has already peaked?Key takeaways:Bitcoin’s selloff may resume due to a bearish continuation setup.Halving and midterm election fractals appear bearish for the BTC price in 2026.Veteran trader warns of more BTC price declinePeter Brandt, a veteran futures market trader, highlighted a maturing bear flag channel on the Bitcoin daily chart, which could keep BTC’s odds of rising toward $250,000 this year low.As of Tuesday, BTC was showing signs of a pullback after testing the flag’s upper boundary near $79,500 as resistance. The cryptocurrency risks declining toward the flag’s lower boundary around the $69,000 level by May if the correction persists.Those of you predicting $250,000 in 2026 need to stop with the mushroomsThis is called a channel While it does not preclude further price gains, it is NOT a bullish bottoming patternSource: XA bear flag fully resolves when the price decisively breaks below the lower boundary and drops to a level at length equal to the height of the previous downtrend.A break below the flag’s lower trend line may push the BTC price under $50,000 if the technical setup plays out as intended.BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingViewBitcoin halving fractals show the bear market is midwayBTC’s price cycles have historically followed a clear pattern tied to its halvings every four years. Cycle peaks have consistently occurred 12 to 18 months after the event. In 2012, the peak arrived in 12 months. The 2016 halving saw its top in 17 months, while the 2020 halving peaked after 18 months. The April 2024 halving fits this timeline. Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, roughly 17–18 months later. Bitcoin price performance since halvingNow, in late April 2026 (over 24 months post-halving), BTC trades around $77,000, down 38%–40% from that peak. This alignment suggests the 2025 high may represent the cycle top, casting doubt on new highs for the remainder of 2026.Bitcoin sell-off may resume in MayA chart by analyst Merlijn The Trader is adding to the cautious narrative, pointing to a recurring “Sell in May” pattern in US mid-term election years. For instance, BTC dropped 61% in 2014, 65% in 2018, and 66% in 2022, each beginning around May of the election years. BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: TradingView/Merlijn The TraderApplying a similar framework to 2026, Merlijn projected a potential decline of over 60%, which would place BTC near the $30,000 level.In a February report, Capital Group analysts Matt Miller and Chris Buchbinder said midterm elections often raise uncertainty over congressional control and policy direction. As campaign rhetoric heats up in the spring, investors tend to cut risk, slow buying, and brace for volatility.That backdrop weakens the case for Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by year-end, even though several analysts, including those from Bernstein, see room for a more modest rebound toward the $100,000–$150,000 range. This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

Ether (ETH) analysts have mapped out key ETH price levels to watch over the next few weeks, with a focus on the $2,000 psychological level.Key takeaways:Dropping below the 200-day simple moving average at $2,220 could confirm more downside for Ether.ETH faces stiff resistance at $2,400, a level that must be reclaimed by the bulls. Ether price stuck between two key levelsData from TradingView showed the ETH/USD pair trading below $2,300, down 5% over the last two days and erasing all gains made over the weekend. This meant that the price remained wedged between the 100-day exponential moving average at $2,350 and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2,220, as shown in the chart below.This suggested that Ether could consolidate within these trend lines for a few more days before a decisive move.Telegram trading resource Technical Crypto Analyst said that after losing the support trendline at $2,300, “we can probably expect Ethereum to drop, and it might even hit the lower support level in the next few days,” adding: “A solid breakdown with good volume would confirm this.”ETH/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe analyst was referring to two immediate support zones: the $2,200 area, where the 50-day and 100-day SMAs converge, and the psychological level at $2,000.“ETH has dropped below the $2,300 level,” said fellow analyst Ted Pillows in a Tuesday post on X, adding:“The next crucial support zone is $2,200 which could be a level for a short-term bounceback.”A key buy zone to watch below that is the $1,800-$1,750 area, which aligns with the multi-year low reached on Feb. 6.In a recent post on X, trader Daan Crypto Trades said that the key levels to watch were $2,100 as support and the resistance at $2,800, which ETH price has “respected” well over the past few years.ETH/USD daily chart. Source: X/Daan Crypto TradesAs Cointelegraph reported, a daily close below the moving averages around $2,200 would bring the next line of defense at $2,000 into focus.Ethereum price must reclaim $2,400 to continue recoveryAs Cointelegraph also reported, Ether’s bullish case hinges on flipping the resistance at $2,400 into support, where the realized price currently is.“This is a very important psychological factor,” CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 said in a recent X post, adding:“Breaking through that line signifies that whales are transitioning to a profitable position.”ETH realized price. Source: CryptoQuantWith whales back in a profitable position, it would “provide grounds for their buying power to become stronger,” the analyst added.Related: Ethereum’s EEZ could pull other blockchains into its orbitMeanwhile, Ether’s liquidation map reveals that a break above $2,400 would trigger over $1.94 billion in short liquidations across all exchanges.ETH exchange liquidation map. Source: CoinGlassThis means a significant amount of bearish bets risk liquidation on a move higher, opening the way to a sharper upward cascade if the recovery resumes.This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

Bitcoin bulls fell $515 short of their $80,000 target after BTC (BTC) topped out at $79,485 on Monday, but a potential upside is that the brief pullback provides a necessary retest of key underlying levels. In technical analysis, a break of structure is generally followed by a support-resistance retest as swing traders take profits at preset levels that align with metrics such as the Fibonacci retracement, exponential moving averages, Bollinger Bands, order book structure, and more. The support-resistance flip is also a feature traders look for to confirm that a longer-term resistance (in this case) has turned into support. When confirmed, it gives some traders the confidence to open new positions at the S/R level as they believe the break of structure and retest marks either the completion or the start of a trend reversal. After managing the first decisive breakout from the 3-month-old channel, Bitcoin retested the channel resistance (at $76,688) that had pinned down every BTC rally since Feb. 8. A deeper retest could see the price drop to the 20-day moving average at $75,250, and then confirmation of the S/R flip would entail daily candle closes above the former trendline resistance. BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingViewOutside of the naked price action from the candlestick chart, the long-to-short delta (heatmap below) shows longs currently with the advantage, with a -$38.6 million delta, and the figure widens to -$153 million if BTC rises to $77,500. BTC/USD long-short delta. Source: HyblockEssentially, the SR flip from the Monday US morning session liquidated long positions down to $76,500, potentially confirming the trendline resistance as support. As the price rebounds, the chart shows shorts having significantly more leveraged exposure at risk.Related: Bitcoin shorts create $1.4B liquidation risk: Is a price squeeze to $80K next?Bulls may succeed in pushing the price through the most immediate overhead shorts and returning BTC to its range highs below $80,000, but the aggregate orderbook set at 2.5% to 5% shows a wall of asks stacked from $79,700 to $80,000. This suggests that clearing the $80,000 level could remain a challenge in the short-term.BTC/USDT orderbook bids and asks. Source: TRDR.ioThis article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

Key points:Bitcoin continues to face resistance near $79,500, but the trajectory remains up as long as the price holds above $76,000.Most major altcoins are not showing any directional bias, suggesting a near-term consolidation.Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to rise above $79,500, but the bears held their ground. BTC investor and author Michael Terpin told Cointelegraph that BTC risks falling to $57,000 in October 2026, based on a study of the “historical average” drawdown of about 1 year from a market-cycle top. Terpin added that BTC will have to rise above $100,000 for the bull market to resume.Another negative view came from Bitcoin analyst Matthew Hyland, who said in a post on X that the “larger expected consensus outcome for BTC is another leg lower by October.” Veteran trader Peter Brandt also opined in an X post that BTC may form “an investable low” in September or October.Crypto market data daily view. Source: TradingViewWhile several analysts expect a fall in BTC, crypto sentiment platform Santiment has a different view. Santiment said in a post on X that BTC wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have added 40,967 BTC since April 10, while retail investors holding less than 0.1 BTC have accumulated 46 BTC during the same period. If whales continue to buy and retail investors book profits, that may signal a long-term bull run.Could BTC and the major altcoins rebound off the support? Let’s analyze the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out. S&P 500 Index price predictionThe S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose to a new all-time high on Friday, indicating that the bulls are in command.SPX daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe upsloping 20-day exponential moving average (6,948) and the relative strength index (RSI) near the overbought zone suggest the up move may continue. The next levels to watch on the upside are 7,500 and then 7,877.Sellers will have to swiftly yank the price back below the 20-day EMA to weaken the bullish momentum. If they manage to do that, the index may tumble to the 50-day simple moving average (6,795).US Dollar Index price predictionThe US Dollar Index (DXY) reached the moving averages, where the bears are posing a stiff challenge.DXY daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe bears will attempt to push the price toward the 97.74 level, where buyers are expected to step in. However, if the bears push the price below the 97.74 level, the index may sink toward the 96.21-95.55 support zone.On the upside, the bulls will need to sustain prices above the moving averages to increase the likelihood of a rally toward the 100.54 level. The bears will attempt to keep the index inside the 95.55 to 100.54 range by selling near the overhead resistance.Bitcoin price predictionBTC has been sustaining above the breakout level of $76,000, indicating that the bulls are not hurrying to book profits.BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the positive zone signal that the path of least resistance is upward. If buyers thrust the price above $80,000, the BTC/USDT pair may skyrocket to $84,000. Time is running out for the bears. They will have to quickly pull the BTC price below the 20-day EMA to gain the upper hand. The pair may then decline to the 50-day SMA ($71,820), signaling that the bears are active at higher levels.Ether price predictionEther (ETH) remains above the 20-day EMA ($2,295), but bulls have failed to push it above the $2,465 resistance.ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewSellers will attempt to strengthen their position by pulling the ETH price below the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, it suggests the ETH/USDT pair may remain within the ascending channel for a while longer.Buyers will have to thrust the price above the resistance line to seize control. The pair may then soar to $3,050. Sellers will be back in the driver’s seat on a close below the support line.XRP price predictionXRP (XRP) remains stuck inside the $1.27 to $1.61 range, indicating buying on dips and selling on rallies.XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe 20-day EMA ($1.40) has started to turn up gradually, and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating that the bulls have a slight edge. There is minor resistance at $1.51, but if it is crossed, the XRP/USDT pair may reach the downtrend line. A break and close above the downtrend line signals a potential trend change. The pair may then rally to $2.Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will attempt to pull the XRP price back below the moving averages, retaining the pair inside the range.BNB price predictionBNB (BNB) is finding support at the moving averages, but the bulls have failed to trigger a strong bounce off them.BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBuyers will need to drive the BNB price above $654 to signal strength. The BNB/USDT pair may then test the $687 resistance level, a critical level to watch. If buyers pierce the $687 level, the pair may jump to $730 and then to $790.Instead, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below the moving averages, it suggests the pair may remain within the $570 to $687 range for a few more days.Solana price predictionSolana (SOL) continues to trade near the moving averages, indicating a balance between supply and demand.SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThere is a minor obstacle at $90.73, but if that level is broken, the SOL/USDT pair may reach the $98 resistance. Sellers are expected to defend the $98 level with all their might, as a close above it opens the doors for a rally to $117.Alternatively, if the SOL price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance and breaks below $82.94, it suggests that the bears are attempting to take charge. The pair may then collapse to the $76 support.Related: First 21-week trend line reclaim since October 2025: Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekDogecoin price predictionDogecoin (DOGE) has been gradually moving higher but is expected to face selling in the $0.10 to $0.11 zone.DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIf the DOGE price turns down from the overhead resistance zone, it is expected to find support at the moving averages. A sharp bounce off the moving averages increases the possibility of a rally to the $0.12 level.Contrarily, if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages, it signals that the bears remain sellers on rallies. The DOGE/USDT pair risks resuming the downtrend if the $0.09 support breaks down. Hyperliquid price predictionHyperliquid (HYPE) resumed its northward march after breaking above the $41.88 resistance on Sunday.HYPE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe uptrend is facing selling pressure in the $43.76 to $45.77 zone, as seen in the long wick on the candlestick. Sellers will attempt to sink the HYPE price below the 20-day EMA ($41.25), opening the door to a drop toward the 50-day SMA ($39.50). Conversely, if the price rises above the current level or the 20-day EMA and breaks above $45.77, it signals that the bulls remain in control. That may propel the HYPE/USDT pair toward the $50-$51.43 resistance zone.Cardano price predictionCardano (ADA) has been clinging to the moving averages for several days, improving the prospects of an upside breakout.ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe downtrend line is the crucial resistance to watch out for as a close above it signals a potential short-term trend change. The ADA/USDT pair may surge to $0.32, then to $0.37.On the contrary, if the ADA price turns down sharply from the downtrend line, it suggests that the bears are aggressively defending the level. The pair may then slump to the $0.22 support.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell more than 2% on Monday as US-Iran war nerves again guided macro markets.Key points:Bitcoin gave back early-week gains as its downside extended toward 3% on Monday.Two key moving averages hang in the balance amid macro uncertainty over the war in Iran.Bulls need to clear the low $80,000 area next, says market analysis.Crypto exec: Bitcoin needs to clear bull market support bandData from TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting local lows of $76,567 on Bitstamp, giving back earlier gains.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe pair had managed a weekly candle close above a key moving average — something that market participants had hoped would allow it to avoid a fresh retracement.“Bitcoin just reclaimed the 21W EMA for the first time since Oct 2025,” trader Ryan Hogue noted in a post on X. “$84.5K (200DMA) looks like the next stop this week.”BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Ryan Hogue/XNic Puckrin, CEO and cofounder of crypto education platform Coin Bureau, added that Bitcoin reclaiming its bull market support band — two moving averages of which the 21-week EMA is one — was now key.“We are right in the middle of the Bull Market Support Band. This has historically served as a key support for bull markets. We broke below the band in October last year,” he told X followers. “While 80k is acting as a resistance right now, if we flip the band to support, it would point to a major macro-bullish shift.”BTC/USD one-day chart with bull market support band. Source: Nic Puckrin/XCrypto markets “shaping up for more upside”Uncertainty over progress between the US and Iran on ending the war nonetheless directed Bitcoin lower at the Wall Street open, along with US stocks.Related: First 21-week trend line reclaim since October 2025: Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekOil conversely began to gain, with WTI crude reaching $97.50 per barrel to near two-week highs.CFDs on US WTI crude oil four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCommenting, trading company QCP Capital suggested that Iran’s foreign minister flying to Russia for talks with President Vladimir Putin was “reviving concerns of broader geopolitical alignment and escalation, and adding to market uncertainty.”“Whether the next leg higher proves to be another classic bull trap or a more durable recovery will hinge on BTC’s ability to close above 82k,” it wrote in its latest Market Color analysis.QCP added that corporate earnings represented another source of potential risk-asset volatility for the week ahead.BTC/USDT six-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/XElsewhere, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe was confident about a breakout beyond the current multimonth trading range.“The markets are still shaping up for more upside, and it’s still holding crucial levels,” he wrote on the day. “I think that we’ll see $85-88K in May and correct/consolidate from there.”This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

Bitcoin (BTC) counts down the final days of April with a fresh attack on $80,000 as price teases key breakouts.Bitcoin sees its first weekly close above a key trend line since October 2025.Liquidity grabs ramp up as traders eye a potential support retest closer to $70,000.The Federal Reserve interest-rate decision and inflation data form macro volatility catalysts.Analysis sees the “end of capitulation” on Bitcoin as institutions shore up the market.US manufacturing data could allow BTC/USD to avoid a retest of its macro lows.Bitcoin closes above 21-week trend line for the first time in six monthsBitcoin may have failed to tap $80,000 or even hold its latest gains, but the weekly close was still significant.After a last-minute push higher, BTC/USD managed to close out the weekly candle just above a key trend line, data from TradingView confirms.BTC/USD one-hour chart with 21-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThis was its 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) — a resistance feature on the chart in place since October 2025. The last weekly close above it was when the pair traded at nearly $115,000.As Cointelegraph reported, the 21-week EMA was already on the radar for trader and analyst Rekt Capital. A weekly close above it, he argued last week, was a prerequisite for avoiding a support retest of $73,000.“Unless BTC is able to reclaim the 21-week EMA as support… Then this EMA could indeed force BTC into a post-breakout retest of the top of the Double Bottom price broke out from last week,” he told X followers.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/XThe 21-week EMA currently forms the upper boundary of Bitcoin’s bull market support band, together with the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) at $76,550.Similarly, it was in October last year that price completed a weekly close fully above the band’s two trend lines.Last week, trader Daan Crypto Trades said that such an event “could confirm the end of this down trend and further relief bounce.”BTC/USD one-week chart with bull market support band. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewLiquidity grabs drive low-time frame BTC price actionOn short time frames, the BTC price landscape is offering traders mixed signals.As overall strength persists despite geopolitical uncertainty, bulls continue to struggle with reclaiming key support lines.“Some great momentum on $BTC lately, however there are some crucial levels to consider,” crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe commented in his latest analysis on X.Van de Poppe said that price breaking through $79,000 opens up the path to levels up to $100,000, which will nonetheless “take time.”“If there’s no clear breakout at $79K, it wouldn’t be surprising to expect some period of consolidation before there’s another test of the resistance,” he reasoned.“In that case, there’s a level that I prefer to see hold: $73.5k+.”BTC/USDT six-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/XEarlier, Cointelegraph reported on expectations of a fresh BTC price comedown and even new macro lows. Van de Poppe added that such an outcome could occur should the $73,000 area fail.Continuing, trader CrypNuevo suggested that liquidity grabs could bring about that trip to the lower end of the $70,000-$80,000 corridor. After the weekly close, BTC/USD took out late shorts above $79,000 before rapidly heading downward, liquidating newly placed longs, data from CoinGlass shows.BTC 24-hour liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass“Price could take the upside liquidations first in a range highs deviation, before going for the lower ones at $70k mid-range,” CrypNuevo predicted.He added that both $70,000 and $80,000 had an “interesting amount” of potential liquidations to offer.BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CrypNuevo/XPowell’s final Fed FOMC meeting brings stocks warningWith markets still unsure of the roadmap for the US-Iran war, risk appetite is nonetheless “returning,” analysis says.This week has begun with the hope of further negotiations to end the conflict, this time thanks to an Iranian proposal.Bitcoin appeared to find reason for relief on the news, hitting new multimonth highs before quickly retracing. “Risk appetite continues to grow rapidly in this market,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in an X response as BTC/USD neared $79,500.Macro volatility is set to continue in the coming days, thanks also to US macroeconomic events.Wednesday will see the Federal Reserve’s next decision on interest-rate changes, and markets will be watching Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for cues when it comes to future policy.Fed target rate expectations for Wednesday’s FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group FedWatch ToolThe war has added new inflation risks for the US, and Thursday’s release of the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge should reflect its impact on the trend.This week also marks the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting with Powell as Chair, ahead of the assumed takeover by Kevin Warsh.“New Fed chairs have a history of being greeted with market volatility,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company noted in the latest edition of its regular analysis series, The Market Mosaic.An accompanying chart put the average S&P 500 drawdown in the year a new Fed chair takes over at 20%.S&P 500 drawdowns under new Fed chairs. Source: Mosaic Asset CompanyBTC price analysis sees “structural bottom” in placeBitcoin near $80,000 has led analysts to suggest that the “end of capitulation” is already here.In one of its QuickTake blog posts on Monday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant pointed to institutional investors as the key supporting factor during the 2026 bear market.“During the Hormuz Shock, large investors refused to sell their Bitcoins and the panic in derivatives was irrelevant, as institutional conviction was already cemented,” contributor GugaOnChain summarized.In early February, CryptoQuant argued, when BTC/USD briefly fell to near $60,000, a “purge” of low-conviction investors had already been underway for several months.“Operators took profits, purging weak hands and retreating the support to $54.5K,” GugaOnChain continued, referring to Bitcoin investors’ average cost basis, also known as realized price. “In practice: the retail that paid the speculative premium at $90K entered absolute panic with the free fall. Forced to sell at a loss, they returned their Bitcoins to the Smart Money in the $62K zone, establishing an early support above the fair price.”Bitcoin realized price data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantCryptoQuant described the “apex” of the process occurring in February, with a recovery underway ever since.“The apex of this purge occurred on February 5, 2026, consolidating the ground zero of this Bear Market. With the Spot squeezed at $62.8K and the Realized Price (RP) at $55.3K, the deviation was only 1.34%,” GugaOnChain explained, calling a “structural bottom.” “Unlike the absolute capitulation of 2022, when the price crossed below the network’s base, this time the panic stalled at a 13% distance from the Wall. Institutional capital erected a concrete floor before the abyss, exhausting the selling power of investors without conviction.”Bitcoin realized-price data ordered by date coins moved onchain. Source: CryptoQuantUS macro data may save Bitcoin from new bear-market lowThroughout the current macro volatility, US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has formed a key upside catalyst for crypto and risk assets.Related: Bitcoin Bull Score hits six-month high as 2022 bear-market fears lingerThis is set to continue, with PMI entering an “expansion” phase for the first time since 2022.For commentator Matthew Hyland, this now has implications for Bitcoin price action for the rest of 2026. In this bear-market year, BTC/USD should find a bottom in Q4, matching 2022 — but PMI should change the landscape.“Because of the strength of the PMI expansion trigger along with the other 10+ signals I do not believe the ‘4 year cycle’ works out as most expect,” he wrote on X.BTC/USD versus US PMI data. Source: Matthew Hyland/XInstead of beating its February lows, Bitcoin should instead put in “higher low” near $60,000, contrary to the majority’s expectations. Supporting this, Hyland made reference to “10+ signals” showing that the new bottom is already in place.“My invalidation would be a severe black swan something worse than the past few months however black swans are NOT likely so Its low percentage odds of being invalidated and not favorable to happen,” he added.

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed glued to $78,000 on Friday with markets “awaiting clarity” from the US-Iran war.Key points:Bitcoin stalls in its bid to recapture $80,000, as US stocks tread water.Strong earnings are needed to sustain the equities push, says analysis.BTC price support is at risk of giving way next.Bitcoin joins risk assets “chopping sideways”Data from TradingView tracked flat BTC price action into the week’s last Wall Street trading session. BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAmid a lack of fresh geopolitical cues, risk-asset catalysts presented a mixed picture, leading to sideways movements for US stocks. WTI crude oil, after nearing a rematch with the $100 mark, cooled to $95.CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView“$BTC & Stocks started the week off strong as metals have sold off. But as $OIL has been starting to move again the past few days, risk assets have stalled and are now chopping sideways,” trader Daan Crypto Trades responded in a post on X. “Market is eagerly awaiting clarity from the conflict in the middle east. The longer it drags on and oil keeps moving higher, the more pressure will be put on these.”Macro asset price comparison. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/XThe day prior, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company said that positive earnings figures would be essential to sustain continued upside for stocks, with the S&P 500 already hitting new record highs.“With the first quarter reporting season about to pick up, it will be crucial to monitor forward earnings estimates for any changes in trend since the start of the year,” it wrote in its latest analysis.S&P 500 one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAnalyst “surprised” that BTC price support holdingFocusing on BTC/USD, trading resource Material Indicators hinted at early signs of a deeper retracement next.Related: Bitcoin price set for best gains since Q4 2024 with $77.5K monthly close“Bid liquidity at $76.5k already rugged, as predicted yesterday, and LTF order flow is trending down,” it wrote on X, referring to data from one of its proprietary trading tools.Material Indicators added that it was “surprised” that bid liquidity below spot price had not been pulled.BTC/USDT order-book liquidity data with whale orders. Source: Material Indicators/XTrading account JDK Analysis referenced a “news-driven pump” as further evidence that the low-time frame rally was overextended.“The profile shows $BTC at the upper value extreme of the past two days,” an X thread read, analyzing exchange order-book data.BTC/USDT order-book data (Bybit). Source: JDK Analysis/XThis article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped from near three-month highs on Thursday as attention turned to the weekly close.Key points:Bitcoin retraces after its latest trip to its highest levels in several months.The upcoming weekly candle close is of particular interest as price eyes its bull market support band.A macro lull comes ahead of a deluge of US inflation data next week.Bitcoin bull market support band returns after six monthsData from TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping to $77,200 prior to the Wall Street open.The pair hit $79,500 the day prior, marking its highest levels since the last day of January as the $80,000 mark remained narrowly out of reach.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView“$BTC just keeps taking out the highs, taking out short stops without following through,” trader Jelle commented on the latest price action in a post on X. “Been a while since we saw PA like that; usually means liquidity is being generated for a larger position. The question is, when will they step on the gas?”BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Jelle/XAs Cointelegraph reported, multiple resistance levels remain in play in the current spot price zone, with the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) proving hard to flip to support. Bitcoin last traded above that trend line in October 2025.With that, another chart feature finally making a comeback after a six-month absence is Bitcoin’s bull market support band.Formed by the 21-week EMA and the 20-week simple moving average (SMA), the support band was lost as support soon after Bitcoin’s latest all-time highs.“$BTC Attempting to break back above the bull market support band,” trader Daan Crypto Trades confirmed. “Eyes on the weekly close this weekend, as it will be an important one. Bitcoin has not traded above its bull market support band since October 2025.”BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/XFed policy, oil seen as next crypto catalystsMacro markets provided little volatility on the day, with few cues from the US-Iran war.Related: Bitcoin Bull Score hits six-month high as 2022 bear-market fears lingerThe coming week was due to see key US macroeconomic data prints released, along with the latest interest-rate announcement from the Federal Reserve.As Cointelegraph previously noted, markets saw little chance of Fed easing policy until the end of 2027 as geopolitical uncertainty raised the odds of inflation making a comeback.The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the chances of the Fed changing rates at next week’s meeting at practically zero.“The cleanest tells from here are still oil and policy. Oil below $100 would support the relief case, while clearer Fed signalling would help compress the policy premium,” trading company QCP Capital wrote in its latest “Market Color” analysis on Wednesday. “Until then, the broader message remains the same: risk has stepped back from the brink, but the underlying macro and geopolitical overhang has not been cleared.”Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME GroupThis article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

Bitcoin (BTC) could see further upside volatility as several technical indicators suggested the BTC price was due for a “powerful“ upward move.Key takeaways:Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands indicator now sees the potential for a massive price breakout.BTC price needs to overcome resistance at $80,000 for more upside. Bollinger Bands suggest Bitcoin’s “bull run is next”Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands have reached their tightest point ever on the monthly time frame, signaling that volatility should be expected soon.Related: Bitcoin ‘Bull Score’ hits six-month high as 2022 bear-market fears lingerBollinger Bands (BB) is a technical indicator used by traders to assess momentum and volatility within a certain range.The “tightest Bitcoin monthly Bollinger band squeeze, ever,” said analyst Cantonese Cat in an X post on Wednesday.“​​This will lead to a very powerful move when it expands,” the analyst added.The BTC/USD pair gained about 230% between December 2023 and August 2025 to its current all-time high of $126,000, after breaking above the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands.Similar occurrences in 2020 and 2016 triggered the previous bull runs that saw BTC price rally more than 520% and 4,400%, respectively.BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewMeanwhile, Coinvo Trading shared a chart showing that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI has dropped to its lowest level since late 2022.This coincided with the BTC/USD drop to a multi-year support trend line, an occurrence that has previously marked Bitcoin’s macro bottoms.The last time this happened was at the bottom of the 2022 bear market, preceding a 350% BTC price rally to its previous all-time high of $73,800, reached in March 2024.“The same exact trendline, the same oversold RSI, the same outcome,” Coinvo Trading said, adding:“Bull run is next in line.”BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: Coinvo TradingAs Cointelegraph reported, several Bitcoin metrics, including a bullish MACD crossover on the weekly chart, suggest that a BTC price breakout is about to begin. Bitcoin must reclaim $80,000 nextBitcoin’s 6% rally over the last three days saw the BTC/USD pair fill the $74,000-$77,000 CME gap created over the weekend.Traders are now looking at the next CME gap above $80,000, formed in early February.BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: X/NicMC Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said resistance at $79,000 could temporarily “stall” Bitcoin’s upward momentum“Likely we’ll test it first, come back down for a little, find extra stamina, and then we’ll push through to $86K.”BTC/USD daily chart. Source: X/Michael van de PoppeMeanwhile, Bitcoin’s whale order book showed “heavy sell pressure” between $78,000-$80,000, reinforcing the significance of this resistance level.Bitcoin whale order book. Source: CoinGlassAs Cointelegraph reported, a close above the $76,000-$78,000 resistance zone would confirm that the buyers are in control, clearing the path for a potential rally to $84,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) price metrics are showing relief this month, but the risk of repeating the 2022 bear market remains.Key points:Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index combined price metric reaches its highest levels since October last year.The relief may be short-lived, analysis warns, pointing to the 2022 bear market.Crypto sentiment reaches its most bullish since January, per the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.Bitcoin Bull Score Index ditches “bearish” zoneNew data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant place the spotlight on the Bitcoin Bull Score Index (BSI).Bitcoin has finally entered “neutral” territory with its push to $78,000, the latest BSI data confirms, with the Index climbing to its highest since October 2025.BSI incorporates nine price metrics to give an overall impression of performance. Since the bear market began, it has been sharply bearish — just as in the early stages of the previous bear market four years ago.“First time in this bear market that the Bull Score Index enters neutral zone (50),” CryptoQuant contributor Julio Moreno noted in an X post on Wednesday.Bitcoin Bull Score Index. Source: CryptoQuantMoreno cautioned that despite the pressure being off for now, BSI also had a brief cooling-off period before the 2022 bear market continued.“In March 2022, the Bull Score entered neutral territory for about a week, and then the price resumed its decline,” he added.Should history repeat, attention will be on the Index’s performance into the April monthly close, as BTC/USD attempts to break out of a multi-month range.Examining BSI readings last week, with price around $74,000, CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain described a “balance between supply and demand forces.”“On the other hand, the current BSI reading shows that the market is still far from the area of strong optimism (above 60), which typically indicates strong bullish conditions, while also remaining above the zone of extreme pessimism (clearly below 40),” they wrote in a “QuickTake” blog post. “This places the market in a transitional phase, as investors await new catalysts to determine the next direction.”Sentiment edges to most bullish since JanuaryOther signs of a broader market recovery come from crypto trader sentiment.Related: BTC price due new highs: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week🚨 UPDATE: Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 32 (Fear) today, a notable recovery from Extreme Fear at 23 last week. pic.twitter.com/lmjfjh0Ui3— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) April 22, 2026

According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a classic lagging indicator that uses a basket of factors to reflect the mood among investors, conditions are at their least negative since mid-January.Fear & Greed measured 32/100 on Wednesday — still within its “fear” zone while like BSI also approaching the “neutral” bracket.The Index value has nearly tripled in a little over a week.Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Market analysts said Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest rally to $78,000 means that the “uptrend has began,” but the upside could be capped at $84,000, based on several key metrics.Key takeaways:Bitcoin profitability suggests BTC rally “has begun” Bitcoin’s recent price recovery toward $76,000 has pushed it more than 26% above its sub-$60,000 multi-year low reached on Feb. 6.This was accompanied by an increase in the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which hit an eight-month high of 2.87, after dropping as low as 0.62 in early February.Related: Bitcoin risks losing $70K as Strategy’s STRC slips below $100SOPR is a metric used to show whether Bitcoin investors have made a profit or loss compared to when they first held Bitcoin. This ratio has historically marked the short-term bottom for BTC when it hits its lowest point.“The $BTC SOPR Ratio shows that $BTC has already broken out of the bottom and is rising,” CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 said in a Tuesday post on X, adding:“The bottom for $BTC was formed last February. The rally is already in progress.”Bitcoin SOPR. Source: CryptoQuantSimilarly, Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), the difference between total profits and losses currently held by investors, has flipped positive for the first time since early January.This suggests that the downtrend for Bitcoin has ended, and the “real rally of this cycle has begun,” CW8900 said in another X post.Bitcoin NUPL. Source: CryptoQuantThis structurally resembles conditions seen in early stages of previous bull markets, where the NUPL recovered from extended periods below zero as Bitcoin embarked on a sustained rally.1.1 million BTC at $84,000 could trigger sell-offAccording to Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution data, investors hold approximately 1.1 million BTC at an average cost of $84,000, creating a potential resistance zone. This concentration suggests many investors may sell at break-even, potentially stalling Bitcoin’s upward momentum.Bitcoin cost basis distribution chart. Source: GlassnodeAs Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s immediate resistance is at $78,000, where the true market mean currently sits.The US spot Bitcoin ETF cost basis at $83,100 is seen as the next key hurdle. BTC: Average cost basis of US spot ETFs. Source: GlassnodeAnalyst AlphaBTC said the BTC/USD pair might rise higher to fill the CME gap at $84,000, which was created at the start of February.BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: AlphaBTCAs Cointelegraph reported, a close above the $76,000-$78,000 resistance zone would confirm that the buyers are in control, clearing the path for a potential rally to $84,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) sought to match ten-week highs on Tuesday as market participants bet on a new short squeeze.Key points:Bitcoin is due a fresh short squeeze as funding rates uniquely stay negative as price grinds higher, say market pundits.Short-term targets include a trip to $85,000 in the coming weeks.Bitcoin bulls still need to clear the nearby 21-week trend line keeping price pinned since October 2025.“Cannon is loaded” for Bitcoin short squeezeData from TradingView showed BTC/USD approaching $77,000 for the first time this weekly candle.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewA slight comedown into the Wall Street open meant that price continued to coil below a large area of resistance.Mixed signals over the US-Iran war continued on the day, with Iran denying that its delegations had arrived in Pakistan for a new round of negotiations with the US. As Cointelegraph reported, markets offered only a muted reaction to the latest closure of the Strait of Hormuz oil route.Among Bitcoin traders, a sense of cautious optimism was slowly growing.“A period of consolidation, but clearly upwards pattern,” crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe wrote in an X post. “This means that there’s likely more upside to come for Bitcoin towards the $85,000 area.”Van de Poppe gave a time frame of “two to three weeks” for that level to come into focus, reiterating earlier comments about Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq.BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/XOthers focused on ongoing negative funding rates on exchanges, despite price rising.“We’ve never actually gotten one when the chart was grinding up. NEVER. It only occurred during the local BOTTOMS,” trader Osemka noted on X alongside charts showing past negative funding periods.Osemka suggested that “something is brewing beneath” the surface, just as BTC/USD eyed a reclaim of lost support.Binance BTC/USDT futures 1-day chart. Source: Osemka/XResponding, crypto market intelligence platform Decode agreed, seeing the potential for another short squeeze.“What this tells you is that the market is heavily short and bearish, and Bitcoin is setting up for a short squeeze. The cannon is loaded, bulls just need to light the fuse…,” it told X followers.CME gap thins with BTC up against resistanceMultiple lines in the sand for bulls lie immediately above the spot price.Related: Bitcoin can grow ‘probably a lot bigger’ than $30T+ gold market — AnalysisThese include the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), true market mean, and average buy-in price for investors of the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).BTC/USD one-day chart with 21-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewTrader Daan Crypto Trades observed that price had also filled the latest weekend “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market.“$BTC Closed a big part of the gap from this weekend but still not everything. Market still just following the headlines and no $STRC raises for now. So we will just patiently wait and see,” he commented.CME Bitcoin futures one-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X