Značka: Markets

Bitcoin (BTC) is completing a “perfectly fractal” reversal pattern that a well-known analyst hopes could end the bear market.Key points:Bitcoin is on the final leg of what could become a major “W”-shaped reversal pattern.John Bollinger suggests that its success could “break” the downtrend in place since October 2025.Institutional interest slowly returns as newly reclaimed $60,000 holds.John Bollinger hints BTC price “W” reversal could break bearsIn X posts on Friday, John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, eyed a “W”-shaped double bottom on BTC/USD.“$BTC has seen a series of bullish patterns broken, evidence of the power of the downtrend,” he commented. “Will this ‘W’ be the one that breaks the trend?”“W”-shaped reversals involve two swing lows with a rejected rebound in between, with price ultimately breaking through that rejection level to form a new uptrend.Bollinger uploaded a chart showing how neatly the current setup aligns with the lower band of the Bollinger Bands indicator on daily time frames.“Note that it is perfectly fractal. The are small ‘w’s at the nadirs and a small ‘m’ at the apex,” he added, also pointing to a “W” on the weekly chart.BTC/USD one-day chart with Bollinger Bands. Source: John Bollinger/XBollinger has been bullish on BTC for some time. In early May, he revealed a new long position via his Bitcoin investment vehicle.As Cointelegraph reported, an increasing number of price indicators are flashing signals not seen since the last bear market in 2022. Despite this, market participants broadly believe that the next macro bottom is still to come and is due in Q3 or later.Bitcoin ETF inflow comes amid major supply “absorption”Continuing, analyst Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, stressed the significance of re-emerging institutional buyer interest.Related: Bitcoin price tags $62.3K nine-day high after global stocks hit historic recordOn Friday, the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw their first net inflows in ten days.“Bitcoin is in the late stage of the bear cycle, but the ETF segment has for the first time signaled that the pressure is easing,” he summarized on X.US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows. Source: Axel Adler Jr./XTrader Daan Crypto Trades acknowledged that while the $220 million inflows were “not massive,” they could have implications for BTC price support going forward.“Also good to note how price has been holding this ~$60K region regardless of the many outflows. That will become meaningful if price does bounce further into next week as it means a lot of absorption has taken place,” he told X followers.

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied, $50 short of $63,000, on July 3, and Ether (ETH) outperformed the wider market, pushing to $1,775. The end-of-week rally comes a few days after BTC fell to a 21-month low and ETH sank to fresh year-to-date lows. Highlighting the negative sentiment, the Crypto Fear & Greed index registered “Extreme Fear” at 11 out of 100. Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.meThat gap between the “Extreme Fear” reading and Friday’s bullish market activity is worth noting. On July 2, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) took in a net $221.7 million, their largest single-day inflow since early May and a break from 10 consecutive days of outflows. Spot Bitcoin ETF netflows. Source: SoSoValue.comFutures markets fuel Bitcoin and Ether gainsThe leverage side of the crypto market looks more one-sided than the spot buying data alone would suggest. “Funding,” the periodic payment traders holding bets on higher prices make to traders betting on lower prices when the market leans bullish, has stayed positive for the past eight days and has been climbing throughout this period. Bitcoin open interest, funding rate. Source: HyblockThe total amount of outstanding leveraged Bitcoin positions is also near its highest level in the past several days, even though the price has mostly moved sideways. Leverage building up without price making much progress is generally viewed as a caution sign rather than confirmation that a rally is underway. Related: Bitcoin holds $61K after US jobs data report, AI sector weakness: Did BTC bottom?Can bulls keep their pace? Looking at the next few trading sessions, a few reference points stand out. On the cautious side, whether Bitcoin holds above roughly $61,000, where a large cluster of leveraged buy positions sits, matters, and so does whether Wednesday’s ETF inflow turns out to be a one-day event or the start of a new trend. On the more encouraging side, a move back above $62,500 would put Bitcoin within reach of price levels where leveraged short positions become more exposed, and continued positive buying activity alongside a still-growing pool of leveraged positions would extend the pattern seen over the past few days. Bitcoin liquidation heatmap. One-month view. Source: HyblockThe overall market read is mixed rather than clearly bullish or bearish. Spot buying and a rebound in ETF flows suggest sentiment may be improving faster than the fear-and-greed number implies, but a market this deeply fearful and this leveraged toward higher prices tends to be more fragile. The upcoming US holiday-weekend stretch of typically thinner trading adds another layer of uncertainty to the current setup.

Key takeaways:Solana’s tokenized assets and memecoin revival drove SOL to a 30-day high at $83.Bullish leveraged appetite cooled sharply, suggesting traders are hesitant to bet on further gains to $90.Solana’s SOL token jumped to its highest mark in over 30 days on Friday at $83, marking a decoupling from the altcoin market. SOL’s rally gained steam from a surge in tokenized trading volume on Solana, inflows of stablecoin liquidity, and an unexpected comeback in memecoin activity. Can SOL reclaim the $90 level?Total altcoin market capitalization, USD (left) vs. SOL/USD (right). Source: TradingViewSOL’s bullish momentum ignited on June 23, coinciding with cumulative tokenized stock transfers on Solana surpassing $10 billion. The launch of SpaceX shares trading by Backpack propelled Solana’s decentralized finance (DeFi) utilization. In contrast, the broader altcoin market extended its downtrend, hitting the lowest level since December 2023.30-day tokenized assets net flows ex-stablecoins, USD. Source: RWA.xyzTokenized assets on the Solana network surged to a record-high $3.5 billion on Wednesday, up from $2.7 billion one month prior. The recent boost came from corporate credit tokens and stock market indexes, such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100. According to RWA.xyz data, Solana leads with 294,274 active addresses in the tokenized industry, followed by Ethereum with 204,955.Memecoins, prediction markets surge may push SOL toward $90The airdrop of The Black Bull (ANSEM) memecoin on Sunday re-ignited interest in the sector. The token, launched on Pump.fun, reached a $60 million market capitalization on Tuesday. The anonymous developer directed some 65% of the supply to the crypto influencer Ansem’s public wallet. The distribution lacked transparency, but involved 74,000 addresses over the initial 3 days.Top 7-day performances of Solana tokens. Source: CoinRankingMultiple memecoins on Solana surged on the back of the memecoin airdrop, but the biggest winner was the Pump.fun platform token (PUMP). The 27% weekly gains were enough to send PUMP back into the top-100 crypto rankings, with a $630 million market capitalization. ANSEM memecoin extended its gains on Friday, reaching an all-time high market capitalization of $112 million.The launch of World prediction markets integrated on Phantom wallet has created expectations for increased Solana activity. The project gathered nearly $890,000 in total value locked in two days and aims to compete with the extremely successful Polymarket amid the World Cup betting frenzy. Jupiter has also unveiled its prediction markets under beta test on June 29.Related: US dominates Polymarket political bets despite geoblock–ReportSOL perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: LaevitasThe appetite for bullish leveraged positions has vastly declined since Wednesday, when SOL’s price crossed above $75 for the first time in 30 days. SOL futures annualized funding rate dropped to 3% on Friday from an 11% peak two days prior. Under neutral conditions, the indicator should range from 6% to 12% to offset the capital cost.Investors are not comfortable betting on a SOL rally to $90 merely on the back of a temporary memecoin demand surge. Unless there is sustainable demand for blockchain activity, there are no apparent drivers for SOL to further widen its performance gap relative to the remaining altcoins.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw new July highs on Friday as bulls kept pushing over the US holiday period.Key points:Bitcoin sustains upside momentum as BTC price action nears its 200-week moving average.That trend line now forms the centerpoint of a “strong resistance area.”Global equities hit record levels as Fed rate-hike odds simmer on weaker jobs data.Bitcoin buyers “chasing” as BTC price eyes key trend lineData from TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $62,295 on Bitstamp, its highest since June 24.BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewUS markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday, with the Dow Jones closing at record highs the day prior.  As noted by trading resource The Kobeissi Letter, the global stock market cap also hit new all-time highs.“Global equities are in the midst of one of the most powerful rallies in history,” it wrote in a post on X.Source: The Kobeissi Letter/XCommenting on the latest BTC price action, X commentator Exitpump eyed “controlled slow buying” on exchanges.“Looks good for continuation higher, although keeping in mind 62K – 62.5K as a strong resistance area,” they told X followers.BTC/USD order-book data. Source: Exitpump/XTrader Daan Crypto Trades focused on the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $62,652, for the weekly candle close.“It is key for BTC now to hold this breakout and maintain its low timeframe bullish market structure,” he commented, calling the current trading zone “important.”BTC/USDT perpetual contract one-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/XFed rate-hike headwinds slowly coolOn the back of weak US nonfarm payrolls data, which helped fuel the crypto rebound, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company noted that expectations for Federal Reserve policy remained conservative. Related: Bitcoin supply metric prints first ‘buy’ signal since late 2022 as bear market continues“The knee-jerk reaction from investors was to push stock index futures higher, signaling a regime where bad economic news is good for stocks due to the impact on the rate outlook,” it wrote in its latest Mosaic Chart Alerts update.Mosaic referred to interest-rate changes from the Fed, with potential hikes forming a headwind for crypto and risk assets.The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed roughly equal odds of a pause or hike at the Fed’s September meeting, with rates staying at current levels until then.Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group“The reality is that the payrolls report reflects a “Goldilocks” figure for the average stock, which isn’t too cold to stoke growth fears and not too hot to pull additional rate hikes forward,” it summarized about the jobs figures.

Bitcoin (BTC) has added another bear-market bottom signal this month as analysis draws comparisons to November 2022.Key points:Bitcoin adds to its list of bear-market bottom signals with a key supply ratio “buy” trigger.A bear-market floor could still be some time off, analysis says, with supply held at a loss still relatively low.Demand is the missing piece of the puzzle to shore up a bullish rebound.Bitcoin profit metric echoes 2022 bear-market bottom zoneIn a blog post on Friday, crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, confirmed the return of a key Bitcoin buy signal.Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio, which measures the proportion of the BTC supply which last moved in profit or loss, is back in negative territory for the first time in nearly four years.“The ratio dropped into deeply negative territory and then crossed back above the signal threshold on the rebound, which caused the model to print BUY on several sessions in late June and early July,” Adler wrote. “This is the first buy trigger since November 2022, which was the bottom of the previous bear cycle.”Bitcoin Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio. Source: CryptoQuantUTXO Supply Ratio cues do not imply that a macro bottom has arrived, but occur “near cyclical lows.”“Confirmation would be the ratio holding above zero together with rising price. The negative scenario is a move back into negative territory without price support,” Adler explained.A missing piece of the puzzle involves supply being held at a loss, which has not yet reached the levels seen during previous bear markets.Adler forecast that the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of supply in loss should hit its bear-market reversal target within two months.“Until then, it is more accurate to treat capitulation as a process rather than a completed fact,” he continued.Bitcoin supply in loss. Source: CryptoQuantSignals will not “stop BTC from going lower”On the topic of UTXO Supply, fellow CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost also eyed a potential market inflection point this week.Related: Bitcoin bear market ‘dead’ after first TD9 reversal signal since July 2022 fires“Since it depends on the profit and loss of UTXOs, it can very well signal something during either a sharp drop or a sharp rise. That said, in terms of cyclicality, it wouldn’t be inconsistent to think that the end of this bear market could be approaching,” he wrote in a Quicktake blog post on Wednesday. “This won’t stop BTC from going lower, but we now have several signals pointing to seller exhaustion. The next step is a renewal of demand, and that could take some time.”As Cointelegraph reported, BTC price expectations tend to favor a bear-market bottom coming in Q3 or later.

Key takeaways:Soft US jobs market data triggered a rotation of capital from overheated AI stocks into Bitcoin and gold.Bitcoin onchain indicators hint at seller exhaustion while the decline in oil prices opens room for monetary expansion.Bitcoin reclaimed the $61,000 mark following a disappointing US job market report. Traders grew less certain of a near-term interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) given the worsening labor data. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index sold off, fueling hopes of a capital rotation favoring Bitcoin.Nasdaq 100 Index futures (blue) vs. Bitcoin/USD (orange). Source: TradingViewThe Nasdaq 100 Index erased gains from the three prior days, while Bitcoin distanced itself from Wednesday’s $57,750 low. US non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, missing the 113,000 expected, according to Yahoo Finance. The US Labor Department also revised data for April and May downward by 74,000 jobs.Gold prices reacted positively on Thursday, hinting at potential bullish momentum for scarce assets. The weak economic data prompted investors to cut odds of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes by September to 54% from 64% the prior day, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, crude WTI oil prices stabilized below $70, opening the door for possible economic stimulus measuresGold/USD (red) vs. Crude WTI oil (teal). Source: TradingViewOil prices dropped after the Qatar Foreign Ministry cited “positive progress” in the latest round of discussions between US and Iranian representatives on Wednesday. Gold recovered some of the 8% losses accumulated over the prior two weeks, a possible sign that investors anticipate a less tight monetary policy and further FED balance sheet expansion.US Federal Reserve total assets, USD millions. Source: FED St LouisThe Federal Reserve balance sheet stagnated at $6.73 trillion, although its mandate allows for $40 billion monthly purchases in short-term Treasuries and bonds. Weak job market data and reduced inflationary pressure are widely seen as catalysts for accelerated liquidity injection, creating incentives to invest in scarce assets, including gold and Bitcoin.Overheated AI stocks clash with Bitcoin flashing a bottomWeakness in the AI sector, especially among chipmakers, has led traders to anticipate capital shifting toward alternative assets. Shares of SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, and Applied Materials saw intraday losses of 9% or higher on Thursday. In contrast, Bitcoin is showing signs of seller exhaustion two months after rejection at $82,500.Related: Bitcoin tops $60K amid Fed inflation talks–Is bull trap or $65K next?Source: X/gaah_imOnchain analyst and CryptoQuant author gaah_im said that Bitcoin’s realized profit-to-loss ratio has hit its lowest level since 2022. The net percentage of supply in profit relative to the total supply has turned negative, which historically has marked cycle bottoms with “extreme precision,” according to the analyst. In essence, onchain data hints at further Bitcoin upside.Part of Bitcoin’s recent weakness stems from traders’ disappointment with Strategy. Despite a healthy 8% net leverage and $56.8 billion in enterprise value, holders faced dilution from accelerated MSTR share issuance used to buy back some debt and cover dividends on preferred stocks.If weakness in the AI sector accelerates, some of that money will likely rotate into gold and Bitcoin, making a near-term recovery to $70,000 possible.

Bitcoin (BTC) passed $62,000 at Thursday’s Wall Street open as crypto reacted to weak US employment figures.Key points:US nonfarm payrolls data delivers a crypto market boost as job additions for June fall short.Investors eye an easing in the inflation outlook as optimism over BTC prices increases.Crypto begins its forecast “green July” by liquidating nearly $500 milllion of short positions.Bitcoin gains amid “volatile situation” for US labor marketData from TradingView showed new July highs of $62,137 on Bitstamp, with BTC/USD up nearly 4% on the day.BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe latest nonfarm payrolls data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the US added far fewer jobs than expected in June, at 57,000 versus the anticipated 114,000.“Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in June,” an official news release stated.US unemployment data. Source: BLSThe jobs numbers painted a weak picture of the labor market — a potential tailwind for risk assets should the Federal Reserve loosen financial policy as a result.“May’s jobs number was also revised down by -43,000 jobs,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in a reaction on X. “The labor market remains in a volatile situation.”As Bitcoin and altcoins headed higher, crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe was among those shifting toward a more optimistic mid-term market view.“Inflation expectations have come down. Now, unemployment drops too. It’s at its lowest level in close to a year. Those are strong, public signals about the direction of the markets,” he told X followers. “I don’t think we’ll see another drop on Bitcoin if Bitcoin can clearly break through $65,000 from here.”Bitcoin “buyers are back and strong”Other market participants also drew attention to Bitcoin bulls’ newfound strength.Related: Bitcoin bear market ‘dead’ after first TD9 reversal signal since July 2022 fires“Price drilling through large asks on Binance perps orderbook is actually sign of strength. Plus, we have chasing bids supporting aggressive buyers,” commentator Exitpump reported about exchange order-book data. “Buyers are back and strong.”BTC/USDT chart with order-book liquidity data. Source: Exitpump/XData from CoinGlass put 24-hour crypto short liquidations at nearly $450 million at the time of writing. BTC/USD vs. cryptocurrency liquidations (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass“Welcome to green July,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital continued.As Cointelegraph reported, Rekt Capital expects a July relief rally for Bitcoin before bear-market momentum resumes in August.An accompanying chart, which featured the 21-month and 50-month exponential moving averages (EMAs), drew comparisons to the 2022 bear market, with the implication that the cycle lows were still to come.“And once Bitcoin turns the 50 EMA into new resistance on this relief rally, it will likely enter additional Bearish Acceleration over time,” Rekt Capital added in a separate X post.BTC/USD one-month chart with 21, 50EMA. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Key takeaways:Persistent spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and US dollar strength reduce the odds of a quick bounce to $65,000.Strong AI sector earnings momentum and higher fixed-income returns pull capital from Bitcoin and gold.Bitcoin (BTC) reacted positively to US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks on stubborn inflation. Despite the gains on Wednesday, traders fear that incentives for fixed-income investments and strong earnings momentum in tech stocks will continue to pressure non-yield-bearing assets like cryptocurrencies.US 5-year Treasury yield (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD. Source: TradingViewThe US 5-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.22%, meaning traders demanded higher returns to hold government bonds. Even as inflation eventually eases and WTI crude oil prices fell to a 4-month low, investors anticipate monetary expansion. Regardless of how the Fed manages interest rates and its balance sheet, the US Treasury dictates debt issuance trends.Implied odds of FED interest rates on Sept. 16. Source: CME FedWatch ToolUS government bond futures implied 64% odds of interest rate hikes by September, up from 23% one month prior. The higher expected return on fixed-income investments came as the US dollar strengthened against other major global fiat currencies, which is especially concerning for alternative hedges such as gold and Bitcoin.Gold/USD (left) vs. US dollar strength (DXY). Source: TradingViewDespite the gains on Wednesday, gold prices are down 12% in two months, while the US dollar strength (DXY) nears its highest mark in one year. This vote of confidence in the US economy partly stems from AI sector strength, evident in the 25% gains in the Nasdaq 100 index. However, some specific tech sub-sectors have recently signaled weakness, which could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin and gold.Could the AI sector cool off act as a catalyst for Bitcoin?Micron (MU US) and SanDisk (SNDK US) shares saw intraday losses exceeding 9% on Wednesday after competitors SK Hynix (000660 KR) and Samsung (005930 KR) announced plans to expand capacity. Still, the move can hardly be deemed a trend reversal as the iShares SOX Semiconductor Index ETF (SOXX US) gained 78% in three months.Continued outflows from US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have shattered bulls’ hopes, reinforcing a negative price spiral as negative news gets amplified while positive events barely register. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValueRegardless of the rationale behind the sales, Bitcoin’s weakness, 53% below its all-time high, does not inspire confidence in the $60,000 support level.Strategy (MSTR US) increased its cash position to restore a healthy 17 months of dividend coverage on Monday. However, Strategy’s variable-rate Stretch preferred stock (STRC US) continued to trade far from the $100 target required for additional issuances. The STRC dividend rose to 12% from 11.5%, which was apparently not enough to entice more buyers.Related: Bitcoin just $5K away from ‘best investment opportunity’ of bear marketBitcoin might have temporarily benefited from Fed Chair Warsh’s concerns about persistent inflation, but rising expectations for higher interest rates and strong earnings momentum in the AI sector may continue to exert negative pressure on Bitcoin. As a result, a sustainable rally to $65,000 could take longer.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded as high as $60,200 on Wednesday, up about 2.7% over the past 24 hours after falling to a 21-month low of $57,737 earlier in the session. Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) also gained, up 3% and 4.85%, respectively. The bounce took place amid deep investor caution, with sentiment trackers gauging the balance of fear and greed in crypto markets currently reading around 11 out of 100, in “Extreme Fear” territory. Despite the rebound from the yearly low, Bitcoin remains down roughly a third since the start of the year. Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.meBitcoin dip-buyers overshadowed by fear of future sellingInvestors’ cautious stance shows up differently depending on what data is analyzed. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen more money leave than enter in recent weeks, including a reported $4.5 billion total outflow in June, the largest since the funds launched. At the same time, onchain data shows that long-term holders added roughly 270,000 BTC over the past two weeks. That is generally read as a sign that some bigger investors see the recent decline as an opportunity rather than a reason to sell. Looking at the past few days, one useful gauge is the funding rate. That figure has stayed positive for three straight days, meaning bets on rising prices have remained crowded even as Bitcoin fell to new lows. When leverage builds up on one side of the market like this while price is weak, it can add to volatility, since more traders become exposed to being forced out of their positions if the market moves further against them. Bitcoin open interest, funding rate. Source: HyblockLiquidations continue to define the price actionA broader look at where leveraged positioning is concentrated, combining data from three major exchanges over the past week, shows the heaviest concentration of positioning is roughly between $57,000 and $60,500, which closely wraps around the range Bitcoin has traded in since late June. That concentration thins out noticeably above about $61,000 to $62,000, and again below about $55,000 to $56,000. Bitcoin liquidation heatmap, 3-day look back. Source: HyblockIn practical terms, most of the leverage that could be forced to unwind sits close to the current price rather than in a distant zone, so a decisive move beyond roughly $61,000 on the upside, or $56,000 on the downside, is where forced position closures would likely have the most room to accelerate a move.The view for the next 24 hours leans neutral and a genuine shift in positioning would likely need to show up as rising leveraged positioning alongside a rising Bitcoin price, a combination that has not yet appeared in the data.

Bitcoin (BTC) has delivered a key trend change setup in the latest sign that the macro downtrend could soon reverse.Key points:Bitcoin is seeing its first “perfected” TD9 indicator downtrend setup on monthly time frames since mid-2022.While not a “buy signal” on its own, the move marks a key inflection phase in the bear market, analysis suggests.RSI divergences continue to gain sway among those eyeing the final stages of the 2026 market downturn.BTC price “perfected” TD9 setup echoes final bear-market stagesIn an X post on Tuesday, analyst Tony Severino flagged a “perfected” buy signal on the TD9 indicator.TD9 is a derivative of the Tom DeMark Sequential market timing indicator, which alerts traders to potential trend changes. Here, price triggers a notable signal when nine candles in a row close higher (in an uptrend) or lower (in a downtrend) than the closing price four candles prior.“Bitcoin has ‘perfected’ a TD9 buy setup on the monthly,” Severino commented alongside data from TradingView.BTC/USD one-month chart with TD9 indicator data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe setup is Bitcoin’s first in several years on monthly time frames, with the last TD9 downtrend signal coming in July 2022.At the time, BTC/USD spent another five months ironing out its bear-market bottom, and as Severino notes, a completed TD9 setup does not “necessarily mean that the bottom is in.”“Not a buy signal by itself. But if it holds into the close, it’s the kind of thing you pay attention to,” Tony Carrera, host of the Proof of Pain podcast, wrote in a further X post. “TD 9s are where you stop chasing fear, zoom out, and ask: Is this where $BTC reminds everyone what happens when they think it’s dead?”RSI divergences spark “good odds” for Bitcoin’s bullish comebackAs Cointelegraph reported, consensus among market participants still favors new macro lows coming before the bear market truly reverses.Related: Bitcoin just $5K away from ‘best investment opportunity’ of bear marketTargets differ, with $55,000 now popular, while BTC price cycle comparisons put the current bear market at just over two-thirds complete.By contrast, bullish divergences across multiple time frames are locking in on the relative strength index (RSI) — a classic hint that trend change is due.“Not sure I have ever seen more confirmed and potential bullish divergence with oversold RSI on more time frames, ever,” trader, analyst and podcast host Scott Melker told X followers on Wednesday. “Divs building over multiple time frames is my favorite signal. Good odds.”BTC/USD one-day chart with four-hour, one-day, one-week RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $60,000 at Wednesday’s Wall Street open as stocks moved higher and US dollar strength fell.Key points:Bitcoin catches an early tailwind at the start of July’s first US trading session, rising with stocks.US dollar strength cools as analysis sees an increasingly “crowded” USD long trade.Bitcoin traders maintain faith that July will form a relief-bounce monthly candle.BTC price eyes 3%+ daily gainsData from TradingView showed BTC/USD spiking to $60,475 on Bitstamp, taking daily gains to nearly 3%.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe new monthly candle had started with a bump and a trip to new multiyear lows for the pair, and 24-hour crypto long liquidations totaled more than $200 million at the time of writing, per data from CoinGlass.BTC/USD vs. cryptocurrency liquidations (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass“$BTC showing a lovely pump this NY session,” trader Lennaert Snyder wrote in a response on X.Snyder expected a low-time frame reversal to kick in, with an accompanying chart showing “exhaustion” to hit before price reached $60,700.BTC/USDT one-hour chart. Source: Lennaert Snyder/XFellow trader Daan Crypto Trades saw a potential breakout on the cards should price attack either end of its low-time-frame range.“Let’s see if this turns this $58K-$61K area into a range for the time being,” he told X followers on the day. “I think there’s a good chance that the next attempt at the range high or low will cause a decisive break and bigger move.”BTC/USDT perpetual contract one-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/XBitcoin appeared to benefit from a drop in US dollar strength, with the US dollar index (DXY) reversing from local highs of 101.6 at the open.US dollar index (DXY) one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewStock markets trended higher after some initial volatility, in part fueled by Meta stock, which added over 11% in the first hour.Commenting on DXY, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter warned that a broader dollar trend change could come “soon.”“The long US Dollar trade is crowded: Speculative long positioning in the US Dollar surged to +$34.3 billion as of June 23rd, the highest in 18 months,” it reported on X.US dollar long position data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/XBitcoin July relief rally becomes “base case”Other market participants continued to call for a BTC price relief rally through July.Related: Bitcoin just $5K away from ‘best investment opportunity’ of bear market“Bitcoin Monthly close below its long-term trendline,” trader Titan noted alongside the one-month BTC/USD chart. “My base case: a relief rally in July before the downtrend resumes.”BTC/USD one-month chart. Source: Titan/XTrader and analyst Rekt Capital reiterated his belief that July would offer the opposite of June’s downside before a return to bearish moves in August.“Red June. Green July. Red August. This is what Bitcoin price history suggests,” he summarized on the day. “Bitcoin could possibly see some downside wicking below the new Monthly Open in early July. But history suggests price should be able expand to the upside as the month progresses.”

Bitcoin (BTC) is fast approaching a buying level that analysts describe as a top “investment opportunity.”Key points:Bitcoin only needs to dip another $5,000 to hit a buy-in level that has always marked the bear-market bottom zone.This “best” area to invest is now on the radar of traders and analysts alike.PlanB describes a return below the level as “likely” during the 2026 bear market.BTC price nears a classic bear-market buy-in zoneData from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that BTC/USD is less than 10% away from its aggregate realized price.Realized price is the average price at which the BTC supply last moved onchain, and currently sits at around $53,300. BTC/USD has not traded below it since the end of its last bear market in 2022, according to data from TradingView.“Looking back, every recurring bear market has brought a bleak period when Bitcoin fell below its realized price, and that has been the best Bitcoin investment opportunity,” CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Sunmoon commented.BTC/USD one-week chart with realized price data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewRealized price comes in various iterations, reflecting the aggregate cost basis of various Bitcoin investor cohorts.Market participants, however, are eagerly awaiting the return of the broader cost basis, given its role as a potential bear-market bottom marker.“If that moment comes again, where price falls below the realized price, invest for the new cycle,” CryptoQuant suggested.Bitcoin will “likely” fall under realized priceIn recent months, PlanB, the pseudonymous creator of the Stock-to-Flow BTC price models, has listed a drop below the realized price as one of two key conditions that must be met to secure a trend reversal.Related: Bitcoin price risks drop below $58K as US dollar hits 40-year high against yenThe other, closing candles below the 200-week moving average (WMA), began several weeks ago.“Market is 50/50 on if February $60k was the bottom, or the bear will continue,” he wrote in an X post at the start of June. “IMO data is telling us that we have not seen bottom formation yet, and that there is a >50% probablility that we go lower (below 200wma $61k or realized price $53k).”Bitcoin realized price data. Source: PlanB/XIn a later post, PlanB added that Bitcoin would “likely bottom below” the realized price.Continuing on realized price, commentator Aaron Bennett said that a drop to the key level was still possible despite the presence of institutional holders who were absent from previous bear markets.“I’d be surprised if we don’t touch this, or go below it for a few weeks,” he told X followers last week.