Značka: Markets

Total crypto market-cap hits $850M as Bitcoin and altcoins recover from FTX’s collapse

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization gained 2% in the past seven days, reaching $850 billion. Even with the positive movement and the ascending channel that was initiated on Nov. 20, the overall sentiment remains bearish and year-to-date losses amount to 63.5%.Total crypto market cap in USD, 4-hour. Source: TradingViewBitcoin (BTC) price also gained a mere 2% on the week, but investors have little to celebrate as the current $16,800 level represents a 64% drop year-to-date. Bankrupt exchange FTX remained at the centerpiece of the newsflow after the exchange hacker continued to move portions of the stolen $477 million in stolen assets as an attempt to launder the money. On Nov. 29, analysts alleged that a portion of the stolen funds were transferred to OKX.The FTX saga has made politicians shout louder in their calls for regulation. On Nov. 28, the European Central Bank (ECB) president Christine Lagarde called regulation and supervision of crypto an “absolute necessity.” The United States House Financial Services Committee Chair Maxine Waters announced that lawmakers would explore the collapse of FTX in a Dec. 13 inquiry.On Nov. 28, Kraken, a U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange, agreed to pay more than $362,000 as part of a deal “to settle its potential civil liability” related to violating sanctions against Iran. According to the United States Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, Kraken exported services to users who appeared to be in Iran when they engaged in virtual currency transactions.The 2% weekly gain in total market capitalization was impacted mainly by Ether’s (ETH) 7% positive price move. The bullish sentiment also significantly impacted altcoins, with 6 of the top 80 coins rallying 10% or more in the period.Weekly winners and losers among the top 80 coins. Source: NomicsFantom (FTM) gained 29.3% amid reports that the Fantom Foundation generates consistent profits and has 30 years of runway without selling any FTM tokens.Dogecoin (DOGE) rallied 26.8% as investors increased expectations that Elon Musk’s vision for Twitter 2.0 will include some form of DOGE integration.ApeCoin (APE) gained 15.6% after the community-led DAO made up of ApeCoin holders launched its own marketplace to buy and sell NFTs from the Yuga Labs ecosystem.Chainlink (LINK) rallied 11.1% ahead of its staking services beta-version launch on Dec. 6, boosting holders’ reward-earning opportunities.Leverage demand is balanced between bulls and bearsPerpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) demand more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when shorts (sellers) require additional leverage, causing the funding rate to turn negative.Perpetual futures accumulated 7-day funding rate on Nov. 30. Source: CoinglassThe 7-day funding rate was near zero for Bitcoin, Ether and XRP, so the data points to a balanced demand between leverage longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers). The only exception was BNB, which presented a 1.3% weekly funding rate for those holding leverage shorts. Although it’s not burdensome to sellers, it reflects investors’ unease about buying BNB at the current price levels.Traders should also analyze the options markets to understand whether whales and arbitrage desks have placed higher bets on bullish or bearish strategies.The options put/call ratio shows moderate bullishnessTraders can gauge the market’s overall sentiment by measuring whether more activity is going through call (buy) options or put (sell) options. Generally speaking, call options are used for bullish strategies, whereas put options are for bearish ones.A 0.70 put-to-call ratio indicates that put options open interest lag the more bullish calls by 30% and is therefore bullish. In contrast, a 1.20 indicator favors put options by 20%, which can be deemed bearish. BTC options open interest put-to-call ratio. Source: Laevitas.chEven though Bitcoin’s price failed to break the $17,000 resistance on Nov. 30, there was no excessive demand for downside protection using options. As a result, the put-to-call ratio remained steady near 0.53. The Bitcoin options market remains more strongly populated by neutral-to-bearish strategies, as the current level favoring buy options (calls) indicates.Despite the weekly price rally on select altcoins and even the 7.1% gain in Ether price, there have been no signs of sentiment improvement according to derivatives metrics. There’s balanced demand for leverage using futures contracts, and the BTC options risk assessment metric did not improve even as Bitcoin’s price tested the $17,000 level.Currently, the odds favor those betting that the $870 billion market capitalization resistance will display strength but a 5% negative move toward the $810 billion support is not enough to invalidate the ascending channel, which could give bulls the much-needed room to eradicate the contagion risks caused by FTX’s insolvency. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Don't’ believe the hype — Bitcoin price rally to $17K reflects improving sentiment

Bitcoin (BTC) price gained 6.1% between Nov. 28 and Nov. 30 after briefly testing the $17,000 support. Favorable regulatory winds might have helped fuel the rally after the Binance exchange announced the acquisition of a regulated crypto exchange in Japan on Nov. 30.Bitcoin 12-hour price index, USD. Source: TradingViewBinance shut its operations in Japan in 2018 after being warned by the Japan Financial Services Agency for operating without a license. The acquisition of Sakura Exchange BitCoin would mark the re-entry of Binance in the Japanese market.Furthermore, Gemini exchange announced new regulatory approvals in Italy and Greece on Nov. 30. The exchange was granted registration as a virtual currency operator with Italy’s payments services regulator. Gemini was approved as an exchange and custodial wallet provider in Greece.However, not everything has been positive on the regulatory front. In separate letters from Nov. 28, Ron Wyden, chair of the United States Senate Finance Committee, requested information from six cryptocurrency exchanges. The lawmaker targeted the necessity of “consumer protections along the lines of the assurances that have long existed for customers of banks, credit unions and securities brokers.”Wyden requested the six firms provide answers by Dec. 12 on safeguards of consumer assets and market manipulation. The Senate Agriculture Committee has also scheduled a hearing to explore the collapse of FTX on Dec. 1.During these events, Bitcoin has been trying to break above $17,000 for the past eighteen days, so some selling pressure clearly remains above that level. The most likely culprit is the risk of capitulation from Bitcoin miners after they’ve seen their profits squeezed by falling spot prices and surging Bitcoin mining difficulty. Cointelegraph noted that Bitcoin miners face a significant squeeze after expecting to sell accumulated BTC at a profit.Let’s look at crypto derivatives data to understand whether investors remain risk-averse to Bitcoin.Futures markets are no longer in backwardationFixed-month futures contracts usually trade at a slight premium to regular spot markets because sellers demand more money to withhold settlement for longer. Technically known as contango, this situation is not exclusive to crypto assets.In healthy markets, futures should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium, which is enough to compensate for the risks plus the cost of capital.Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.chConsidering the data above, derivatives traders have improved their expectations and the Bitcoin futures premium is no longer negative — meaning the demand for bullish and bearish leverage is equally balanced. Still, the present 0% premium is far from the 4% threshold for bullishness, indicating professional traders’ reluctance to add leveraged long (bull) positions.Another notable development is the long-to-short ratio improving over the past two days. To exclude externalities that might have solely impacted the quarterly contracts, traders should analyze the top traders’ long-to-short ratio. The metric also gathers data from exchange clients’ positions on the spot and perpetual contracts, which better informs how professional traders are positioned.Exchanges’ top traders Bitcoin long-to-short ratio. Source: CoinglassEven though Bitcoin failed to break $17,000 on Nov. 30, professional traders slightly increased their leverage long positions according to the long-to-short indicator. For instance, the Binance traders’ ratio improved from 1.07 on Nov. 28 and presently stands at 1.10.Similarly, OKX displayed a modest increase in its long-to-short ratio, as the indicator moved from 0.98 to the current 1.03 in two days. The metric slightly declined to 1.02 at the Huobi exchange and this shows that traders did not become bearish after the latest resistance rejection.The absence of negative price moves is a bullish indicatorTraders should not conclude that the absence of futures premium reflects worsening market conditions because the broader data from the long-to-short ratio has shown whales and market makers adding leverage longs.The Bitcoin price movement has been surprisingly positive considering the recent negative newsflow and fear relating to the potential of a regulatory crackdown and miners’ ability to withstand a more extended crypto winter.It will likely take longer for investors to regain confidence and feel that the current contagion risks are over. As a result, bears could continue to exert pressure and sustain Bitcoin below $17,000 in the short-term.The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Kraken cuts workforce by 30% in an effort to survive crypto winter

Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken announced on Nov. 30 that it has made one of its “hardest decisions”  and is cutting down its global workforce by approximately 1,100 people, comprising approximately 30% of its total workforce, amid current market conditions.According to CEO and co-founder Jesse Powell, Kraken had to triple its workforce due to the fast-growing crypto ecosystem, and the current pullback takes the size of the company’s team back to where it was 12 months ago. Powell shared in a tweet, “Macro was already tough and we held out but recent industry woes diminished near-term optimism about a crypto rebound.”Rough day at @krakenfx. Headcount rolled back 12 mos. Macro was already tough and we held out but recent industry woes diminished near-term optimism about a crypto rebound. Better positioned now. Glad we were able to take good care of our former colleagues. Been a privilege. ‍♂️ https://t.co/xfwShapS2N— Jesse Powell (@jespow) November 30, 2022Lower trading volumes and fewer client sign-ups amid turbulent market conditions have contributed to Kraken’s decision to cut down its expenses by slowing down hiring efforts and avoiding large marketing commitments. According to the exchange, these changes are necessary “to sustain the business for the long-term while continuing to build world-class products and services in selective areas that add the most value for our clients.”The company stated that employees being let go were given a decent severance package, which includes separation pay covering 16 weeks of base pay, performance bonuses, four months of healthcare coverage including counseling, immigration support and career support, among other benefits. Related: US lawmaker questions major crypto exchanges on consumer protection amid FTX collapseEarlier this year in June, Kraken announced that it would continue to hire over 500 roles in various departments amid a market downturn. The company’s hiring efforts were at the time in stark contrast to major layoff announcements from major blockchain firms such as Coinbase and BlockFi.In support of the decision to continue to expand its staff earlier in the year, Kraken had said: “We have not adjusted our hiring plan, and we do not intend to make any layoffs. We have over 500 roles to fill during the remainder of the year and believe bear markets are fantastic at weeding out the applicants chasing hype from the true believers in our mission.”Current layoffs, however, show a contrasting picture from the CEO’s statements made in June, when he took the opportunity to throw shots at supposed “woke activists” while discussing the company’s decision to hire hundreds of new employees.

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Price analysis 11/30: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, MATIC, DOT, LTC, UNI

Bitcoin (BTC) has shrugged off the weakness in the United States equities markets and is attempting to start a recovery on Nov. 30. Buyers are attempting to achieve a monthly close above $17,000. This suggests that the selling that had picked up due to the FTX crisis may be reducing.Usually, smaller investors panic and dump their holdings in a bear market but it has been the opposite with Bitcoin investors. According to Glassnode data released on Nov. 27, investors holding less than one Bitcoin, also called shrimps, bought 96,200 Bitcoin since the FTX crash. Along similar lines, investors holding between 1 to 10 Bitcoin, classified as crabs, bought 191,600 Bitcoin over the past 30 days. This shows investors are continuing to accumulate at lower levels.Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360However, a sharp recovery in Bitcoin’s price is unlikely for some time. Trading firm QCP Capital believes that the United States Consumer Price Index data on Dec. 13 and the U.S. Fed’s policy decision on Dec. 14 could act as risk factors because many investors could be “forced to continually sell assets to raise liquidity.” QCP expects the situation to turn around only in the second or third quarter of next year after the Fed possibly pivots and releases liquidity in the system.Could Bitcoin lead the cryptocurrency markets higher? Let’s study the charts of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.BTC/USDTBitcoin turned up from $15,995 on Nov. 28 and broke above the developing descending triangle pattern on Nov. 30. This invalidated the bearish setup and may have attracted buying from the bulls who are trying to push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($16,910).BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewA close above the 20-day EMA will be the first sign that the bears may be losing their grip. The BTC/USDT pair could then rally to $17,622 and later to the 50-day simple moving average ($18,434). The sellers are expected to defend this zone with vigor.If the price turns down from the overhead zone but bounces off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bulls are buying the dips. That could increase the possibility of a rally to $20,000 and then to $21,500.Another possibility is that the price turns down from $17,622. If that happens, it will suggest that the pair may consolidate between $15,476 and $17,622 for some more time.ETH/USDTEther (ETH) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($1,234) on Nov. 26 but the bulls arrested the decline at $1,151 on Nov. 28. This indicates a pick-up in demand and a sign that the sentiment could be turning positive.ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewBuyers have pushed the price above the 20-day EMA and will next attempt to break above the 50-day SMA ($1,335). If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could rally to the resistance line of the descending channel. This level may attract strong selling by the bears because a break above the channel could indicate a possible trend change.To invalidate this bullish view, the bears will have to defend the 50-day SMA and pull the price back below $1,051. The pair could then decline to the support line of the channel.BNB/USDTBNB (BNB) bounced off the moving averages on Nov. 29 but the bulls are struggling to build upon this move. This suggests that bears are likely to pose a strong challenge between $300 and $318.BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA ($292) is flattening out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. The advantage could tilt in favor of the buyers if they catapult the price above $318. That could clear the path for a rally to $338 where the bears may again erect a stiff barrier.This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and plummets below the moving averages. The pair could then decline to the support at $258. XRP/USDTThe bulls successfully defended the retest of the breakout from the symmetrical triangle on Nov. 28. This is a positive sign as it shows that traders are buying the dips in XRP (XRP).XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bounce has reached the overhead resistance at $0.41, which is an important level to keep an eye on. If bulls catapult the price above this resistance, the XRP/USDT pair could attempt a rally to $0.45 and then to $0.51.On the other hand, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that the bears are aggressively selling near $0.41. They will then again try to pull the price inside the triangle. If they can pull it off, the pair could drop to $0.34. ADA/USDT Cardano (ADA) remains in a downtrend but the bullish divergence on the RSI suggests that the bearish momentum may be weakening.ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bulls will have to thrust and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.32) to signal strength. If they do that, the ADA/USDT pair may start a recovery to the downtrend line. The 50-day SMA ($0.36) may act as a resistance but is likely to be crossed. Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that bears are selling on minor rallies. The bears will then try to resume the downtrend and sink the price to the support line.DOGE/USDTDogecoin (DOGE) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($0.09) on Nov. 28, indicating that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying the dips.DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI above 60 suggest that bulls have the upper hand. Buyers are trying to extend the recovery to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.11 and next to the 61.8% retracement level of $0.12. The sellers are likely to mount a strong defense in this zone. If the price turns down from it, the DOGE/USDT pair could again drop to the 20-day EMA.On the contrary, if buyers thrust the price above the overhead zone, the pair could complete a 100% retracement and rally to $0.16.MATIC/USDTPolygon (MATIC) remains stuck between the 20-day EMA ($0.88) and the uptrend line. The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bulls are trying to drive the price above the moving averages and gain the upper hand. If they succeed, the MATIC/USDT pair could climb to $0.97 and then rally to $1.05. This level could again attract selling by the bears but if bulls clear this hurdle, the bullish momentum could pick up.This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price turns down from the moving averages and slides below the uptrend line. The pair could then drop to the important support at $0.69.Related: FTM price rebounds 50% as Fantom reveals 30 years runway (without having to sell its token)DOT/USDTPolkadot (DOT) turned up from $5.06 on Nov. 28, indicating that bulls are attempting to form a low at $5. The price reached the 20-day EMA ($5.52) on Nov. 30, which is likely to act as a formidable resistance. The RSI has formed a bullish divergence as it has not tracked the DOT/USDT pair lower. This indicates that the selling pressure could be weakening and increases the likelihood of a break above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($6) and later attempt a rally to the downtrend line. Alternatively, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are viewing the relief rallies as a selling opportunity. A break below $5 could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The next support on the downside is $4.32.LTC/USDTThe long tail on Litecoin’s (LTC) Nov. 28 candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. This suggests that buyers are trying to flip the breakout level of $75 into support. LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe rising 20-day EMA ($69) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate the path of least resistance is to the upside. Buyers will have to push the price above $84 to start a new up-move, which could reach $104.Instead, if bulls fail to propel the price above $84, the bears will again try to sink the LTC/USDT pair below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, several aggressive bulls may get trapped resulting in long liquidation. The pair may then fall to the 50-day SMA ($60). UNI/USDTThe bulls are buying the dips to the support line of the symmetrical triangle pattern. This is a positive sign as it indicates demand at lower levels. Buyers are trying to strengthen their position by pushing Uniswap (UNI) above the 20-day EMA ($5.67).UNI/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe RSI has risen close to the midpoint, indicating that the bearish momentum may be weakening. If buyers sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, the UNI/USDT pair may attempt a rally to the resistance line of the triangle. A break above the triangle will suggest a potential trend change.Contrarily, if the price fails to rise above the moving averages, it will suggest that the bears continue to sell on rallies. They will then again try to pull the price below the triangle and open the doors for a decline to $4.60 and then $3.33.The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Ethereum derivatives look bearish, but traders believe the ETH bottom is in

Ether (ETH) rallied 5.5% in the early hours of Nov. 29, reclaiming the critical $1,200 support. However, when analyzing a broader time frame, the 24% negative performance in the past 30 days significantly impacts investors’ sentiment. Moreover, investors’ mood worsened after BlockFi filed for bankruptcy on Nov. 28.Newsflow remained negative after the United States Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced a settlement with Kraken exchange for “apparent violations of sanctions against Iran.” In a Nov. 28 announcement, the OFAC said Kraken had agreed to pay more than $362,000 as part of a deal “to settle its potential civil liability.”Moreover, on Nov. 28, institutional crypto financial services provider Silvergate Capital denied rumors of significant exposure to BlockFi’s bankruptcy. Silvergate added that its losses are lower than $20 million in digital assets and reiterated that BlockFi was not a custodian for its crypto-collateralized loans.Traders are afraid that Ether could drop below $800 if the bear market continues, but some are also questioning the risk of invalidation. One example comes from crypto Twitter trader @CryptoCapo_:I have spent hundreds of hours analyzing the market to come to the conclusion that:Capitulation is a matter of time. $BTC should reach 12ks, $ETH 600-700, altcoins should drop 40-50% and shitcoins 50%+.I won’t post any more here until confirmation or invalidation.Good luck!— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) November 28, 2022Let’s look at Ether derivatives data to understand if the worsening market conditions have impacted crypto investors’ sentiment.Pro traders are slowly exiting panic levelsRetail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. They are professional traders’ preferred instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a perpetual futures contract.The two-month futures annualized premium should trade between +4% to +8% in healthy markets to cover costs and associated risks. Thus, when the futures trade at a discount versus regular spot markets, it shows a lack of confidence from leverage buyers — a bearish indicator.Ether 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.chThe above chart shows that derivatives traders remain bearish as the Ether futures premium is negative. Nevertheless, it at least has shown some modest improvement on Nov. 29. Bears can highlight how far we are from a neutral-to-bullish 0% to 4% premium, but the aftermath of a 71% drop in one year holds great weight.Still, traders should also analyze Ether’s options markets to exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument.Options traders do not expect a sudden rallyThe 25% delta skew is a telling sign when market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.In bear markets, options investors give higher odds for a price dump, causing the skew indicator to rise above 10%. On the other hand, bullish markets tend to drive the skew indicator below -10%, meaning the bearish put options are discounted.Ether 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.chThe delta skew has gone down in the past week, signaling that options traders are more comfortable offering downside protection. As the 60-day delta skew stands at 18%, whales and market makers are pricing higher odds of price dumps for Ether. Consequently, both options and futures markets point to pro traders fearing a retest of the $1,070 low is the natural course for ETH.From an optimistic perspective, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that the November 2022 sell-off was the fourth-largest for Bitcoin (BTC). The movement has led to a 7-day realized loss of $10.2 billion. Consequently, odds are the capitulation for Ether holders has passed and those placing bullish bets right now — defying the ETH derivatives metrics —will eventually come out ahead.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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This simple Bitcoin options strategy allows traders to go long with limited downside risk

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls were hopeful that the Nov. 21 dip to $15,500 would mark the cycle bottom, but BTC has not been able to produce a daily close above $17,600 for the past eighteen days. Traders are clearly uncomfortable with the current price action and the confirmation of BlockFi’s demise on Nov. 28 was not helpful for any potential Bitcoin price recovery. The cryptocurrency lending platform filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the United States a couple of weeks after the firm halted withdrawals.In a statement sent to Cointelegraph, Ripple’s APAC policy lead Rahul Advani said he expects the FTX exchange bankruptcy to lead to greater scrutiny on crypto regulations.” Following the event, several global regulators pledged to focus on developing greater crypto regulation.Unfortunately, there is no way to know when investors’ sentiment will improve and trigger a new bull run. Despite this, for traders who believe BTC will reach $20,000 by Dec. 30, there is a low-risk options strategy that could yield a decent return with limited risk.How pro traders use the bullish Iron Condor strategyBuying Bitcoin futures pays off during bull markets, but the issue lies in dealing with liquidations when BTC price goes down. This is why pro traders use options strategies to maximize their gains and limit their losses. The bullish skewed Iron Condor strategy can maximize profits near $21,000 by the end of 2022 and it limits losses if the expiry price is below $18,000. It is worth noting that Bitcoin traded at $16,168 when the pricing for this model happened.Bitcoin options Iron Condor skewed strategy returns. Source: Deribit Position BuilderThe call option gives its holder the right to acquire an asset at a fixed price in the future. For this privilege, the buyer pays an upfront fee known as a premium.Meanwhile, the put option allows its holder to sell an asset at a fixed price in the future, which is a downside protection strategy. On the other hand, selling this instrument (put) offers exposure to the price upside.The Iron Condor consists of selling the call and put options at the same expiry price and date. The above example has been set using the Dec. 30 contracts, but it can be adapted for other timeframes.As shown above, the target profit area is $18,350 to $24,000. To initiate the trade, the investor needs to short (sell) 2 contracts of the $20,000 call option and two contracts of the $20,000 put option. Then, the buyer must repeat the procedure for the $22,000 options, using the same expiry month.Buying 5.8 contracts of the $18,000 put option to protect from an eventual downside is also required. Lastly, one needs to purchase 5.3 contracts of the $24,000 call option to limit losses above the level.Related: Kraken settles with US Treasury’s OFAC for violating US sanctionsThis strategy yields a net gain if Bitcoin trades between $18,350 and $24,000 on Dec. 30. Net profits peak at 0.485 BTC ($7,860 at current prices) between $20,000 and $22,000, but they remain above 0.10 BTC ($1,620 at current prices) if Bitcoin trades in the $18,350 and $23,600 range. The investment required to open this Iron Condor strategy is the maximum loss, hence 0.103 BTC or $1,670, which will happen if Bitcoin trades below $18,000 on Dec 30. The benefit of this trade is that a wide target area is covered while providing a 475% return versus the potential loss.The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin capitulations abound — Data shows realized and unrealized losses at record-highs

Being three weeks removed from the FTX collapse, Bitcoin (BTC) analysts are combing through data to decipher whether more selling will continue or if a bear market floor has been reached. One thing miners, short-term and long-term holders have in common is they are losing in the Bitcoin market right now. According to on-chain analysis from Glassnode, the scale of both realized and unrealized losses amongst Bitcoin holders is one of the heaviest capitulation events in BTC’s history. Capitulation is hindering all groups from the increasing number of bankruptcies and dwindling miner revenue. Bitcoin’s realized losses fourth largest on record while unrealized losses increaseNovember recorded $10.8 billion in 7-day realized losses for Bitcoin. The largest recorded realized loss in Bitcoin’s history is June 2022 when $19.8 billion was recorded. Such losses show that a large volume of Bitcoin has changed hands at discounted prices.Bitcoin realized 7-day losses. Source: GlassnodeA popular crypto investing saying is “you cannot lose if you do not sell.” Unrealized losses track the entire Bitcoin market versus total market capitalization. The November 2022 56% unrealized loss is the largest in the current bear market. In 2014-2015, unrealized losses hit an all-time high for Bitcoin holders at 86%. The current unrealized losses are the fourth largest in Bitcoin’s history.According to Glassnode analysts: “This metric has recently peaked at 56%, which is the highest for this cycle, and comparable to prior bear market floors.”Bitcoin unrealized losses 7-day moving average. Source: GlassnodeBlock times slow down as Bitcoin miners struggle Bitcoin investors are not the only group capitulating in the current market. Bitcoin miners are struggling to remain profitable with the depressed prices.There it is. Hash Ribbon miner capitulation confirmed. Triggered by the $10B FTX fraud and subsequent collapse, Bitcoin miners are now going bust and Hash Rate is trending down. pic.twitter.com/TorX7PzrNu— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) November 28, 2022Since Bitcoin miners are under pressure to remain financially viable, this affects the BTC mining hash rate. A reduction in Bitcoin’s hash rate slows down BTC transactions. According to HashRate Index, block times reached over 11 minutes. Bitcoin’s hashrate is dropping like a rock↘️Bitcoin’s 7-day average hashrate is currently 236 EH/s, a 14% decrease from its 274 EH/s ATHBlock times are sluggish as a result: 11 minutes and 12 seconds on average this epochhttps://t.co/JN7OmpJ8X0 pic.twitter.com/ckxqEqOGqX— Hashrate Index (@hashrateindex) November 28, 2022

Despite the current challenges, analysts believe that capitulation is healthy for starting the next bull run. Glassnode notes:“One consistent event which motivates the transition from a bear back towards a bull market is the dramatic realization of losses, as investors give up and capitulate at scale.”With so many groups currently at a loss at this stage of the bear market post-FTX collapse, Bitcoin and overall market sentiment will need to improve to spur new money to drive a bull run. Without improved sentiment, the capitulation may not match previous Bitcoin cycles. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Bitcoin’s bottom might be below $15.5K, but data shows some traders turning bullish

Bitcoin (BTC) bears have been in control since Nov. 11, subduing BTC price below $17,000 on every 12-hour candle. On Nov. 28, a drop to $16,000 shattered bulls’ hope that the 7% gains between Nov. 21 and Nov. 24 were enough to mark a cycle low at $15,500.The most likely culprit was an unexpected transfer of 127,000 BTC from a Binance cold wallet on Nov. 28. The huge Bitcoin transaction immediately triggered fear, uncertainty and doubt, but the Binance CEO, Changpeng Zhao, subsequently announced it was part of an auditing process.Regulatory pressure has also been limiting BTC’s upside after reports on Nov. 25 showed that cryptocurrency lending firm Genesis Global Capital and other crypto firms were under investigation by securities regulators in the United States. Joseph Borg, director of the Alabama Securities Commission, confirmed that its state and several other states are investigating Genesis’ alleged ties to securities laws violation.On Nov. 16, Genesis announced it had temporarily suspended withdrawals, citing “unprecedented market turmoil.” Genesis also hired restructuring advisers to explore all possible options, including but not limited to a potential bankruptcy, as reported by Cointelegraph on Nov. 23.Let’s look at derivatives metrics to better understand how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.Margin markets show leverage longs at a 3-month high Margin markets provide insight into how professional traders are positioned because it allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their positions.For instance, one can increase exposure by borrowing stablecoins to buy Bitcoin. On the other hand, Bitcoin borrowers can only short the cryptocurrency as they bet on its price declining. Unlike futures contracts, the balance between margin longs and shorts isn’t always matched.OKX stablecoin/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKXThe above chart shows that OKX traders’ margin lending ratio increased from Nov. 20 to Nov. 27, signaling that professional traders increased their leverage longs during the 6% dip toward $15,500. Presently at 34, the metric favors stablecoin borrowing by a wide margin — the highest in three months — indicating traders have kept their bullish positions.Leverage buyers ignored the recent dip to $15,500The long-to-short metric excludes externalities that might have solely impacted the margin markets. In addition, it gathers data from exchange clients’ positions on the spot, perpetual and quarterly futures contracts, thus offering better information on how professional traders are positioned.There are occasional methodological discrepancies between different exchanges, so readers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.Exchanges’ top traders Bitcoin long-to-short ratio. Source: CoinglassEven though Bitcoin failed to break above the $16,700 resistance, professional traders have kept their leverage long positions, according to the long-to-short indicator.For instance, the ratio for Binance traders improved somewhat from 1.00 on Nov. 21, but ended the period at 1.05. Meanwhile, Huobi displayed a more substantial increase in its long-to-short ratio, with the indicator moving from 1.01 to 1.08 in the seven days until Nov. 28.At crypto exchange OKX, the metric slightly decreased from 0.99 on Nov. 21 to 0.96 on Nov. 28. Consequently, on average, traders are confident enough to keep adding leverage to bullish positions.Related: US House committee sets Dec. 13 date for FTX hearingThe $16,200 support showed strength, suggesting that traders are turning bullishThese two derivatives metrics — margin and top trader’s long-to-short — suggest that size leverage sellers did not back the Bitcoin price correction to $16,000 on Nov. 28.A bearish sentiment would have caused the margin lending ratio to go below 15, pushing the long-to-short ratio much lower. It is important to note that even pro traders can misinterpret the market, but the present reading from the derivatives market favors a strong $16,000 support.Still, even if the price revisits $15,500, bulls should not be concerned as the derivatives indicators withheld neutral-to-bullish on Nov. 21 and further improved during the week.The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Price analysis 11/28: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, MATIC, DOT

China witnessed a spike in Covid cases and that has resulted in strict lockdown restrictions in several parts of the country. This triggered widespread protests in China and has possibly pulled the global stock markets lower. In addition to the turmoil in China, the cryptocurrency markets, which are already in a bear grip, are reeling under pressure from the Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing by BlockFi and its subsidiaries. Bitcoin (BTC) is down 21% in November, on track to its worst November performance since 2018.Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360The sharp fall in Bitcoin’s price has drastically reduced the number of wallets holding more than $1 million worth of Bitcoin. There were 112,898 millionaire wallets on Nov. 8, 2021, but Glassnode data shows that as of Nov. 25, only 23,245 wallets boast of a Bitcoin balance worth $1 million or more.Could the weakness in the S&P 500 index (SPX) pull Bitcoin below $16,000? Let’s study the charts to find out.SPXThe recovery in the S&P 500 index has risen close to the downtrend line. The bears are likely to defend this level as they had done on two previous occasions.SPX daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe sellers will have to sink the price below the 20-day exponential moving average (3,922) to tilt the short-term advantage in their favor. Post that, the index could drop to the 50-day simple moving average (3,794) and later to 3,700.Contrarily, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance but bounces off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that traders continue to buy on dips. That could improve the prospects of a break above the downtrend line. If that happens, the index could rise to 4,300. Such a move will suggest that the downtrend has ended.DXYThe U.S. dollar index (DXY) turned down from 108 on Nov. 21, indicating that the sentiment has turned bearish and the traders may be using the rallies to lighten long positions and establish short positions.DXY daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe downsloping 20-day EMA (108) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative territory indicate that bears are in command. If bears succeed in pulling the price below 105, the selling could intensify and the index may slide to 103.50 and then 102.On the other hand, if the rebound off $105 sustains, the recovery could reach the 20-day EMA. If the relief rally again faces rejection at this level, the likelihood of a break below 105 increases.On the upside, buyers will have to pierce the resistance at 108 to signal a strong comeback. The index could then rise to the uptrend line where it may face tough resistance from the bears.BTC/USDTBitcoin’s relief rally could not even reach the 20-day EMA ($16,972), indicating that traders are hesitant to buy at higher levels. The sellers will now try to pull the price to the crucial support at $15,476.BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe BTC/USDT pair is forming a descending triangle pattern, which will complete on a break and close below $15,476. This negative setup has a target objective at $13,330.The downsloping moving averages indicate advantage to bears but the bullish divergence on the RSI suggests that the bearish momentum could be weakening.If the price turns up and breaks above the downtrend line, it could invalidate the negative setup. That could open the doors for a possible rally to the overhead resistance at $17,622. Buyers will have to kick the price above this level to indicate that the downtrend could be ending.ETH/USDTEther (ETH) reached the 20-day EMA ($1,233) on Nov. 26 but the bulls could not propel the price above it. This suggests that the bears continue to defend the 20-day EMA vigorously. ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe sellers may try to pull the price to the support line of the descending channel pattern, which is close to the psychologically critical level of $1,000. Buyers are likely to defend this level with all their might but they will have to clear the overhead obstacle at the 20-day EMA to start a sustained recovery. The ETH/USDT pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($1,337) and subsequently to the resistance line.On the downside, a break and close below the channel could accelerate selling and sink the pair to the June low at $881.BNB/USDTBNB’s (BNB) recovery turned down from $318 on Nov. 26 and plunged back below the breakout level of $300 on Nov. 28. BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bears will try to solidify their position by pulling the price below the moving averages. If they succeed, it will suggest that the break above $300 may have been a bull trap. The BNB/USDT pair could then decline to $275 and later to $258.If the price turns up from the moving averages, it will suggest that lower levels are attracting buyers. The pair could then again rise to $318. If bulls drive the price above this resistance, the pair could rally to $338.XRP/USDTXRP (XRP) rose above the overhead resistance of $0.41 on Nov. 25 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick.XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThis may have attracted selling by the bears who pulled the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.39) on Nov. 28. The price has dipped to the breakout level from the symmetrical triangle. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break below it will suggest that the XRP/USDT pair may extend its stay inside the $0.30 to $0.41 range for a few more days. The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI near 45 suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened in the near term.Buyers will have to push and sustain the price above $0.41 to signal the start of a new up-move.ADA/USDT Cardano’s (ADA) relief rally could not even reach the 20-day EMA ($0.33), indicating a lack of demand at higher levels.ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bears will try to build upon their advantage and resume the downtrend by pulling the ADA/USDT pair below the support near $0.30. If they do that, the pair could drop to the support line where buyers may step in and arrest the decline.This bearish view could invalidate in the near term if the price rebounds off the support near $0.30 and rises above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then attempt a rally to the downtrend line, indicating that the bears may be losing their grip.Related: New BTC miner capitulation? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekDOGE/USDTDogecoin (DOGE) soared above the psychological level of $0.10 on Nov. 27 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. Profit booking pulled the price back into the range on Nov. 28.DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA ($0.09) is gradually sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that buyers have a slight edge. If the price springs up from the 20-day EMA, the bulls will try to resume the up-move by pushing the DOGE/USDT pair above $0.11. If they manage to do that, the rally could reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.12.On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages, it will suggest that the break above the range may have been a bull trap. The pair could then drop to the support at $0.07. MATIC/USDTBuyers are struggling to push Polygon (MATIC) above the 20-day EMA ($0.88). This suggests that bears are viewing the relief rallies as a selling opportunity.MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe MATIC/USDT pair could again drop to the uptrend line. This level has acted as a strong support on four previous occasions, hence the bulls will again try to defend it aggressively. If the price bounces off the uptrend line, the pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.90). A break above this level will suggest that the bulls are on a comeback. The pair could then rise to $0.97. On the contrary, if the price breaks below the uptrend line, the pair could drop to the important support at $0.69. DOT/USDTPolkadot (DOT) is in a strong downtrend. Attempts by the bulls to start a recovery fizzled out at $5.53 on Nov. 24. This suggests that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bears have pulled the price near the crucial support at $5. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if they fail to do that, the DOT/USDT pair could resume the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $4.06.Alternatively, if the price turns up from the current level or rebounds off $5, it will suggest demand at lower levels. Buyers will again try to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($5.57) and extend the relief rally. The pair could then rise to $6.50.The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price consolidation has shifted traders to these 4 altcoins

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a tight range since Thanksgiving Nov. 24, as traders are uncertain about the next directional move. Usually, in a bear market, analysts tend to become uber-bearish and project targets that tend to scare away investors.The failure of Bitcoin to start a strong recovery has given rise to several bearish targets, which extend up to $6,000 on the downside. Although anything is possible in a bear market, traders who have a long-term view could try to accumulate fundamentally strong coins in several tranches. Because a bottom will only be confirmed in hindsight and trying to time it is usually a futile exercise.Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360In a bear market, all coins do not bottom at the same time. Hence, along with keeping an eye on the broader cryptocurrency market, traders should closely follow the coins of their choice. The cryptocurrencies that lead the market out of the bear phase generally tend to do well when the next bull market begins. Let’s look at the charts of the cryptocurrencies that are trying to start an up-move in the short term.BTC/USDTBitcoin has been consolidating between $15,588 and $17,622 for the past few days. The relative strength index (RSI) has formed a bullish divergence, suggesting that the selling pressure could be reducing.BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe relief rally could face stiff resistance in the zone between the 20-day exponential moving average ($17,065) and $17,622. If the price turns down from the overhead zone, the BTC/USDT pair could extend its stay inside the range for some more time.If buyers catapult the price above the overhead zone, it will suggest that the downtrend may be ending. The 50-day simple moving average ($18,600) may act as a minor hurdle but if crossed, the up-move could reach the psychological level of $20,000.Alternatively, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below $15,588, it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $13,554.BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewThe moving averages on the 4-hour chart have flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This balance could tilt in favor of the bulls if they push the price above $17,000. The pair could then rise to the overhead resistance at $17,622.Instead, if the price slips below $16,000, the pair could drop to the critical support zone between $15,588 and $15,476. A break below this zone could accelerate selling and start the next leg of the downtrend.DOGE/USDTDogecoin (DOGE) broke above the overhead resistance at $0.09 on Nov. 25 but the bears pulled the price back below the level on Nov. 26. Buyers regrouped and pushed the price above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.10 on Nov. 27.DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bears may again try to stop the recovery near $0.10 but if bulls do not allow the price to break below $0.09, the DOGE/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.12. If this level is also scaled, the pair may continue its uptrend toward $0.16.On the other hand, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that bears continue to view the rallies as a selling opportunity. The pair could then decline to $0.09. If this support gives way, the 50-day SMA ($0.08) could be challenged.DOGE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewBuyers have pushed the price above the range, which suggests the start of an up-move. The strong rally pushed the RSI into deeply overbought levels, suggesting a minor correction or consolidation in the near term.If the price turns down from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of $0.10 but rebounds off the breakout level, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips. The bulls will then try to resume the uptrend. The target objective of the breakout from the range is $0.12.This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and re-enters the range. The pair could then drop to the 50-SMA.LTC/USDTLitecoin’s (LTC) breakout above the overhead resistance at $75 is the first indication of a potential trend change. The bears tried to pull the price back below $75 and trap the aggressive bulls but the buyers held their ground. LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bulls will try to propel the price above the overhead resistance at $84. If they succeed, it could signal the start of a new uptrend. The rising 20-day EMA ($67) and the RSI near the overbought zone indicate the path of least resistance is to the upside. The LTC/USDT pair could then rally toward the target objective of $104.Conversely, if the price turns down from $84, the pair could slide to the $73 to $75 support zone. If this zone breaks down, the pair could slide to the 20-day EMA. The bears will have to pull the price below this support to trap the aggressive bulls.If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again try to kick the pair above $84 and start the uptrend.LTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewThe 4-hour chart shows that the price broke and closed below the 20-EMA but the bears could not build upon this advantage. The bulls purchased this dip and nudged the price back above the 20-EMA. Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating that buyers have a slight edge.There is a minor resistance at $80, but if bulls thrust the price above this level, the pair could rise to $84. The pair could then attempt a rally to $96. If bears want to invalidate this view in the short term, they will have to pull the pair below $73.Related: Bitcoin mining revenue lowest in two years, hash rate on the declineLINK/USDTChainlink (LINK) has been range-bound between $5.50 and $9.50 for the past many weeks. The strong rebound off the support at $5.50 on Nov. 21 suggests that bulls are aggressively buying the dips to this level.LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA ($6.74) has started to turn up and the RSI has risen into the positive territory, indicating a minor advantage to the bulls. If the price sustains above the 50-day SMA ($7.15), the likelihood of a rally to $8.50, and thereafter to $9.50, increases.Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. The LINK/USDT pair could then again drop toward the support at $5.50 and consolidate near it for a few more days.LINK/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewThe strong rebound off the $5.50 level is nearing the overhead resistance at $7.50. If the price turns down from this level and breaks below the 20-EMA, the pair could drop to the 50-SMA. A break below this support could keep the pair stuck between $5.50 and $7.50 for some time.Another possibility is that the price turns down from $7.50 but rebounds off the 20-EMA. The bulls will then again try to drive the price above $7.50 and start the northward march toward $8.50.APE/USDTApeCoin (APE) has been consolidating in a large range between $3 and $7.80 for the past several months. The bears tried to sink the price below the support of the range but could not sustain the lower levels. This suggests strong demand at lower levels.APE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewSustained buying pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($3.47) on Nov. 26, indicating that the bulls are on a comeback. There is a minor resistance at the 50-day SMA ($4.06), but if bulls clear this roadblock, the APE/USDT pair could rise to the downtrend line. If the price turns down from the downtrend line, the pair could decline to the 20-day EMA. If the pair rebounds off this level, it will suggest that the sentiment has shifted from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That could improve the prospects of a break above the downtrend line. The pair could then climb to $6.On the contrary, if the price turns down from the downtrend line and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the pair could again slide to the strong support at $3.APE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewThe moving averages on the 4-hour chart have started to turn up and the RSI has jumped into the overbought territory, indicating that bulls have a slight edge. The recovery could face resistance at $4 but if bulls do not allow the price to dip below the moving averages, the up-move may reach the downtrend line.This positive view could be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 50-SMA. Such a move will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. The pair could then drop to $3.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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DeFi sparks new investments despite turbulent market: Finance Redefined

Welcome to Finance Redefined, your weekly dose of essential decentralized finance (DeFi) insights — a newsletter crafted to bring you significant developments over the last week.The prolonged crypto winter aided by the collapse of FTX has kept investors from backing a new protocol that merges DeFi and the foreign exchange market. A new Cosmos blockchain-based DeFi protocol has caught the eyes of investors who have put $10 million behind the project.Cardano-based leading stablecoin ecosystem Ardana abruptly stopped its development after several launch delays. However, the project remains open-source for others to add to it until they restart the development process.Aave community has now proposed a governance change after a failed $60 million short attack. The short attack was later traced to the Mango Markets exploiter, as one of the wallets involved in the attack belonged to the same exploiter.The crypto market remained turbulent throughout the week and the majority of the top 100 DeFi tokens traded in red, barring a few.DeFi protocol raises $10M from Bitfinex, Ava Labs despite turbulent marketOnomy, a Cosmos blockchain-based ecosystem, just secured millions from investors for the development of its new protocol. The project merges DeFi and the foreign exchange market to bring the latter on-chain.According to the developers, the latest funding round garnered $10 million from big industry players such as Bitfinex, Ava Labs, the Maker Foundation and CMS Holdings, among others.Continue readingLeading Cardano stablecoin project shuts down after excruciating launch delaysOn Nov. 24, Ardana, a leading DeFi and stablecoin ecosystem building on Cardano, abruptly halted development, citing “funding and project timeline uncertainty.” The project will remain open-source for builders while treasury balances and remaining funds will be held by Ardana Labs “until another competent dev team in the community comes forward to continue our work.”The move came as a shock to many due to the sudden nature of the announcement. However, it appears that issues were already present for some time. Beginning July 4, Ardana has held an ongoing initial stake pool offering, or ISPO, to fund its operations. Unlike traditional fundraising mechanisms, developers do not receive the Cardano (ADA) delegated by users but instead the staking rewards. Continue readingAave proposes governance changes after failed $60M short attackOn Nov. 23, one day after Mango Markets’ exploiter Avraham Eisenberg attempted to use a series of sophisticated short sales to exploit decentralized finance protocol Aave, project contributors put forth a series of proposals to deal with the aftermath. As told by protocol engineering developer Llama and financial modeling platform Gauntlet, both of whom are deployed on Aave.Llama wrote that the user had been liquidated but at the cost of $1.6 million in bad debt, likely due to slippage. “This excess debt is isolated only to the CRV market,” the firm wrote. “While this is a small amount relative to the total debt of Aave, and well within the limits of Aave’s Safety Module, it is best practice to recapitalize the system to make whole the CRV market.” Continue readingCrypto awakening: Researcher explains ETH exodus from exchangesNansen research analyst Sandra Leow posted a thread on Twitter unpacking the current state of DeFi with a specific focus on the movement of Ether (ETH) and stablecoins from exchanges.As it stands, the Ethereum 2.0 deposit contract contains over 15 million ETH, while some 4 million Wrapped Ether (wETH) is held in the wETH deposit contract. Web3 infrastructure development and investment firm Jump Trading holds over 2 million ETH tokens and is the third largest holder of ETH in the ecosystem.Continue readingDeFi market overviewAnalytical data reveals that DeFi’s total value locked plunged below $40 billion. Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show that DeFi’s top 100 tokens by market capitalization had a volatile bearish week due to the FTX saga, with the majority of the tokens bleeding throughout the week.Curve DAO Token (CRV) was the biggest gainer among the top 100 DeFi tokens, registering a surge of 23.8% over the past week, followed by Chainlink (LINK) with an 8% surge. The rest of the tokens in the top 100 traded in red on the weekly charts.Thanks for reading our summary of this week’s most impactful DeFi developments. Join us next Friday for more stories, insights and education in this dynamically advancing space.

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$15.5K retest is more likely, according to Bitcoin futures and options

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading near $16,500 since Nov. 23, recovering from a dip to $15,500 as investors feared the imminent insolvency of Genesis Global, a cryptocurrency lending and trending company. Genesis stated on Nov. 16 that it would “temporarily suspend redemptions and new loan originations in the lending business.” After causing initial mayhem in the markets, the firm refuted speculation of “imminent” bankruptcy on Nov. 22, although it confirmed difficulties in raising money. More importantly, Genesis’ parent company Digital Currency Group (DCG) owns Grayscale — the asset manager behind Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which holds some 633,360 BTC. Contagion risks from the FTX-Alameda Research implosion continue to exert negative pressure on the markets, but the industry is working to improve transparency and insolvency risks. For example, on Nov. 24, crypto derivatives exchange Bybit launched a $100 million fund to help market makers and high-frequency trading institutions struggling with financial or operational difficulties.More recently, on Nov. 25, Binance published a Merkle Tree-backed proof of funds for its Bitcoin deposits. Moreover, the exchange outlined how users can use the mechanism to verify their holdings. There’s no doubt that centralized institutions must embrace transparency and insurance mechanisms to regain investors’ trust. First, however, one must analyze Bitcoin derivatives markets to fully understand how professional traders are digesting such news.Futures market discount improved slightly but remains far from bullishFixed-month futures contracts usually trade at a slight premium to regular spot markets because sellers demand more money to withhold settlement for longer. Technically known as contango, this situation is not exclusive to crypto assets.In healthy markets, futures should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium, which is enough to compensate for the risks plus the cost of capital. The opposite, when the demand for bearish bets is exceptionally high, causes a discount on futures markets — known as backwardation.Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.chConsidering the data above, it becomes evident that derivatives traders flipped bearish on Nov. 9, as the Bitcoin futures premium flipped negative. Yet, according to futures markets, the $15,500 dip on Nov. 21 was not enough to instill additional demand for leveraged short positions. Option markets confirm the bearishnessTraders should analyze options markets to understand whether Bitcoin will likely retest the $15,500 support. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers are overcharging for upside or downside protection.The indicator compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options and will turn positive when fear is prevalent because the protective put options premium is higher than risk call options.In a nutshell, the skew metric will move above 10% if traders fear a Bitcoin price crash. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 10% skew.Bitcoin 60-day options 25% delta skew: Source: LaevitasAs displayed above, the 25% delta skew has been above the 10% threshold since Nov. 9, indicating options traders are pricing a higher risk of unexpected price dumps. Currently at 18%, it signals investors are fearful and reflects a lack of interest in offering downside protection.Related: How bad is the current state of crypto? On-chain analyst explainsA surprise pump will likely cause more impactConsidering that both Bitcoin futures and options markets are currently pricing higher odds of a downside, there is no reason to believe that an eventual retest of the $15,500 bottom would cause massive liquidations.Furthermore, the slight reduction in the futures discount shows bears lack the confidence to open leverage shorts at current price levels. Even though Bitcoin derivatives data remains bearish, the surprise of an eventual bull run to $18,000 is likely to cause more havoc. But, for now, bears remain in control according to BTC futures and options data.The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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