Značka: Markets

Bitcoin (BTC) is coiling below its 2026 open days before the Q3 candle close as new resistance caps BTC price upside.Key points:Bitcoin seals its highest weekly close since late January at $84,450 but drops to one-week lows of $82,557 after liquidity shifts on exchange order books.Markets see 70% odds of a 0.25% Fed interest-rate hike in October prior to this week’s August PCE inflation and September nonfarm payrolls data.Bitcoin must defend $82,500 to repeat its 2022 bear-market recovery pattern, says analysis by Rekt Capital.BTC price upside cools with Q3 gains above 40%Bitcoin saw downside pressure after Sunday’s weekly close as crypto joined US stock-market futures in falling on the potential for fresh US strikes on Iran.BTC/USD fell under $83,000 to reach one-week lows, per data from TradingView. At $84,450, the weekly close was still the pair’s highest since late January.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewOn low time frames, bands of liquidity that were added and then removed from exchange order books present an artificial barrier to further BTC price upside. On Monday, $30 million in ask liquidity appeared clustered at around $85,700, per data from CoinGlass, with spot price immediately accelerating its decline as a result. BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlassThe coming week will feature two more key candle closes. Wednesday marks both the monthly close for September and the Q3 quarterly close. Both are set to occur around significant BTC price levels. Above current spot price lie the 2026 yearly open at $88,700 and the cost basis for US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors around $86,000. Below lie the cost basis for Bitcoin corporate treasuries at $80,500 and the True Market Mean, the aggregate cost basis for active investors, near $76,700.Bitcoin’s most recent buyers, who acquired BTC between one and four weeks ago and who traditionally react more to sudden price volatility, remain in aggregate profit, with a cost basis at $78,300, per data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.Bitcoin investor cost basis by age (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantBTC/USD remains up by just over 40% this quarter, representing its best Q3 performance since 2017. The figure is significantly higher than the pair’s average Q3 performance, which since 2013 has been just 8.6%. By contrast, Q4 returns have averaged 77% over the same period, CoinGlass shows.BTC/USD quarterly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassHawkish rate bets persist ahead of US PCE, jobs dataKey US inflation data is due for release in the coming days as markets double down on hawkish Federal Reserve policy expectations.On Wednesday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index print for August is expected at 3.6% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. PCE is known to be the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge, something that chair Kevin Warsh confirmed during his keynote speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium last month.After the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25% at its September meeting, markets were already pricing in further hikes through the end of the year. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows majority odds favoring a fresh 0.25% hike at the Fed’s October meeting, followed by a pause in January before hikes resume in March.Odds of a 0.25% hike in October have increased from 57.7% a week ago to 70.3% as of Monday.Fed target-rate probability comparison for October FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupMarket expectations remain highly sensitive to developments around the US-Iran war and associated volatility in oil prices. On the weekend, US president Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest ceasefire proposal while refusing to rule out further military action. WTI crude oil returned to $95 per barrel as a result, gaining 3% on Monday.Speaking to Reuters, Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, warned that oil-supply woes were continuing to dictate the market move despite modest improvements in transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil gateway.“While greater flows through ​the Strait of Hormuz is easing some of the upward pressure on prices, the bigger picture is that the oil market remains in a deficit,” he said.CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewOn Friday, US nonfarm payrolls data for September presents a further opportunity for risk-asset volatility. As Cointelegraph reported, the numbers for August came in far above expectations at 162,000 jobs added, boosting hawkish Fed bets as it appeared that the labor market was weathering accelerating inflation better than expected. Estimates see the US economy having added 83,000 jobs last month.Bitcoin recovery hinges on $82,500 support, analysis says Bitcoin now faces a challenge to preserve $82,500 as support, says price analysis comparing its latest breakout to its recovery from the 2022 bear market.Related: Bitcoin ETFs draw $2.4B in biggest inflow week since October 2025Trader and analyst Rekt Capital continues to monitor an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the weekly chart — a classic bullish reversal structure — for signs that the 2026 bear market is over. As that structure played out, long-term accumulation was also underway.In 2023, BTC/USD completed the inverse head and shoulders to enter a sideways range immediately above it, which lasted for much of 2023. Here, accumulation around $30,000 provided the fuel for the bull market’s next phase.“In this cycle, the ~$82500 level is the analogous level to the very top of the 2022 Accumulation Pattern,” Rekt Capital explained. For history to repeat itself, price would need to retain the $82,500 level in order to confirm its latest inverse head-and-shoulders reversal, going on to build what Rekt Capital calls a “reaccumulation range” above.“Fail to turn $82500 into support however and there’s a chance Bitcoin reverts back into the $60k – $80k Range and retraces within it,” he added.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.comPreviously, Cointelegraph reported on various onchain indicators mimicking behavior that accompanied the end of the 2022 bear market.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to weekly lows on Monday as upside momentum gave way to liquidity hunting on exchange order books.Key points:Bitcoin reversed downward after over $30 million in ask liquidity was added to exchange order books at around $85,700.Crypto and US stock-market futures dropped after US president Donald Trump refused to rule out further strikes on Iran.Analysis by markets commentator Aksel Kibar warned that Bitcoin risked returning to its sub-$80,000 range.Liquidity manipulation halts BTC price upsideData from TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping below $82,700 for the first time since Sept. 21.BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAfter posting its highest weekly close since late January at around $84,450, the pair failed to mount another test of its eight-month highs above $87,000 seen last week. Instead, a large patch of ask liquidity appeared, with over $30 million clustered around $85,700. Sudden, conspicuous liquidity at a price level often signals a calculated attempt by large traders to influence price direction. BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlassData from CoinGlass showed the drop liquidating nearby long positions, totaling around $70 million over 24 hours at the time of writing.Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassBitcoin weakness accompanied downside in US stocks futures after president Donald Trump refused to rule out further military strikes on Iran.“I don’t want to say that. I don’t want to say that. I mean, it’s possible, but I just don’t want to say that,” he said at the PGA Tour Presidents Cup on Sunday, quoted by Fox News.Nasdaq futures were down 0.9% on the day at the time of writing, while WTI crude oil passed $95 per barrel for the first time since Sept. 24.CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewYearly open next challenge for Bitcoin bullsThe $85,700 level blocked a renewed push toward the 2026 year-open level at $88,700, where price stalled last week.Related: Here’s what happened in crypto todayPrior to the weekly close, trader Aksel Kibar warned that Bitcoin’s performance did not resemble a “decisive breakout,” even prior to dropping below $83,000.“Hesitant price action here can result in price returning inside the range,” he wrote in a post on X, referring to the area between $60,000 and $80,000 where BTC/USD traded for much of 2026.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Aksel Kibar on X.com

Cointelegraph is committed to providing independent, high-quality journalism across the crypto, blockchain, AI, and fintech industries.All news, reviews, and analyses are produced with full journalistic independence and integrity. For more details on our standards and processes, please read our Editorial Policy.

Cointelegraph is committed to providing independent, high-quality journalism across the crypto, blockchain, AI, and fintech industries.All news, reviews, and analyses are produced with full journalistic independence and integrity. For more details on our standards and processes, please read our Editorial Policy.

Cointelegraph is committed to providing independent, high-quality journalism across the crypto, blockchain, AI, and fintech industries.All news, reviews, and analyses are produced with full journalistic independence and integrity. For more details on our standards and processes, please read our Editorial Policy.

Bitcoin (BTC) had a volatile Thursday during US hours as the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note climbed to its highest level in nearly two decades. After briefly falling below $83,000, BTC struggled to reclaim $84,500. Ondo Finance (ONDO), meanwhile, was among the top-performing altcoins.Key points: Bitcoin briefly fell below $83,000 before stabilizing near $84,500 amid rising bond yields.Ondo’s token reclaims $0.50 for the first time since December 2025 as BlackRock-backed Ondo Intelligent Portfolios launch on Ethereum and BNB Chain.The US 10-year Treasury yield climbs to 5.18%, its highest since July 2007, while the 30-year yield reaches 5.46%.US 10-year Treasury gains 70 basis points this month, hits 5.18%The US 10-year Treasury yield rose more than 4 basis points to 5.18% on Thursday, its highest level since July 2007, according to TradingView data. The 30-year yield hit 5.46%, reclaiming 2004 highs.US 10-year note yield. Source: TradingViewThe climb came on the day the US Treasury was scheduled to buy back up to $6 billion in bonds maturing in roughly 20 to 30 years, part of an expanded program aimed at improving liquidity in long-dated debt markets.International bond markets also weakened, while the Japanese yen (JPY) came under renewed pressure. Mohamed A. El-Erian, president of Queen’s College Cambridge, wrote on X: “Flying under many radars for now, but probably not for long: The Japanese Yen has weakened back to 159 per U.S. dollar (CNBC chart), approaching the established FX intervention zone.”He continued: “This matters far beyond Japan for a key reason right now: Japanese foreign exchange intervention typically involves selling US securities to buy Yen, potentially adding yield pressures to an already sensitive Treasury market.”Higher yields make government bonds more attractive and can weigh on non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin. Even so, BTC has extended its August rally, challenging bearish predictions tied to Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle.ONDO token among top performers, reclaims $0.50 levelThe tokenized real-world asset (RWA) token ONDO was among the top gainers in the last 24 hours and rose back to the psychological $0.5 level, according to CoinGecko data. ONDO 1-year price chart. Source: CoinGeckoDespite the recent failure of the CLARITY Act to pass through a procedural vote in the US Senate, the token managed to reclaim a level last traded in December 2025. Related: CLARITY vote failure could stoke more crypto PAC spending in key racesThe rally came as BlackRock-backed Ondo Intelligent Portfolios launched on Thursday. While most RWA products focus on tokenizing individual stocks and commodities, the new offering allows non-US users to buy tokenized shares in diversified portfolios.The tokens went live on Ethereum and BNB Chain, with settlement handled through CoW Protocol, CoW DAO said on X. The first three tokens track model portfolio strategies developed by BlackRock for Ondo: BLKHIon (High Income), BLKDIGon (Diversified Growth) and BLKGRWon (High Growth).

Key pointsBitcoin fell below $84,000 as the US 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007.An analyst put the odds of an October Fed hike above 70% as the Treasury prepared a bond buyback of up to $6 billion.Bitcoin has closed September higher for three straight years, while October has averaged a 19.92% gain, per CoinGlass data.Bitcoin fell below $84,000 during Asian trading hours on Thursday, slipping to $83,200 after the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007.The 10-year yield closed Wednesday at 5.11%, up from 4.96% Tuesday, and reached 5.13% intraday. CME attributed the bond selloff partly to stronger US business data and rising oil prices.“BTC has held up well even with surging rates and a strong USD,” James Stanley, senior market analyst for global macro at FOREX.com wrote Wednesday. Stanley identified $82,833 as the next level to watch if the pullback deepens.The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.1%, reaching its highest level since 2007. Source: TradingViewRising Treasury yields offer investors higher returns on government debt and can raise borrowing costs, potentially weighing on Bitcoin and other risk assets.The US Treasury announced Wednesday a $6 billion ceiling for its Thursday buyback of bonds with roughly 20 to 30 years remaining, part of an expanded program intended to improve liquidity in long-dated debt.Related: Bitcoin ETFs add $347M as BTC falls below $84K after topping $87KFed hike bets test Bitcoin’s $84,000 footingBas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager at DHF Capital, said stronger US business activity and elevated energy prices had increased expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening.“Markets now assign around a 70% probability for a hike in October, up from roughly 55% yesterday, while expectations of additional tightening over the coming months have also increased. This repricing continues to underpin both Treasury yields and the dollar,” Kooijman said in a market analysis shared with Cointelegraph on Thursday.Less than five weeks out from the Oct. 28 meeting of US policymakers, CME Group’s Fedwatch tool shows a 75.3% probability of a hike to 4.00-4.25% Related: Institutions held crypto through 50% drawdown, Bitwise findsAn October hike would raise short-term borrowing costs, potentially raising the cost of dollar-funded leveraged Bitcoin trades.BTC could feel the pressure before any decision if new data pushes yields and the dollar higher.“Resilient labor data or further hawkish signals could extend the rise in yields and support the dollar, while softer figures could prompt traders to scale back expectations of an October move and limit the currency’s gains,” Kooijman said.As “Red September” colors the leaves, Bitcoin stays greenBitcoin traders call the months “Red September” and “Uptober” because of their opposing track records. Bitcoin fell in five straight Septembers from 2017 through 2021, while October finished higher in 10 of the 13 completed years according to data compiled by CoinGlass.September has the lowest average return of any month in its table, at -2.34%. Source: CoinGlassHowever, Bitcoin has not closed September in the red since 2022. It gained in September 2023, 2024 and 2025, and is up 7.35% so far this month.October has averaged a 19.92% increase, second only to November. But “Uptober” failed to deliver last year, when Bitcoin fell 3.69%.Magazine: Winners and losers of the SEC’s new tokenized stocks rules

Key pointsBitcoin fell below $84,000 as the US 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007.An analyst put the odds of an October Fed hike above 70% as the Treasury prepared a bond buyback of up to $6 billion.Bitcoin has closed September higher for three straight years, while October has averaged a 19.92% gain, per CoinGlass data.Bitcoin fell below $84,000 during Asian trading hours on Thursday, slipping to $83,200 after the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007.The 10-year yield closed Wednesday at 5.11%, up from 4.96% Tuesday, and reached 5.13% intraday. CME attributed the bond selloff partly to stronger US business data and rising oil prices.“BTC has held up well even with surging rates and a strong USD,” James Stanley, senior market analyst for global macro at FOREX.com wrote Wednesday. Stanley identified $82,833 as the next level to watch if the pullback deepens.The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.1%, reaching its highest level since 2007. Source: TradingViewRising Treasury yields offer investors higher returns on government debt and can raise borrowing costs, potentially weighing on Bitcoin and other risk assets.The US Treasury announced Wednesday a $6 billion ceiling for its Thursday buyback of bonds with roughly 20 to 30 years remaining, part of an expanded program intended to improve liquidity in long-dated debt.Related: Bitcoin ETFs add $347M as BTC falls below $84K after topping $87KFed hike bets test Bitcoin’s $84,000 footingBas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager at DHF Capital, said stronger US business activity and elevated energy prices had increased expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening.“Markets now assign around a 70% probability for a hike in October, up from roughly 55% yesterday, while expectations of additional tightening over the coming months have also increased. This repricing continues to underpin both Treasury yields and the dollar,” Kooijman said in a market analysis shared with Cointelegraph on Thursday.Less than five weeks out from the Oct. 28 meeting of US policymakers, CME Group’s Fedwatch tool shows a 75.3% probability of a hike to 4.00-4.25% Related: Institutions held crypto through 50% drawdown, Bitwise findsAn October hike would raise short-term borrowing costs, potentially raising the cost of dollar-funded leveraged Bitcoin trades.BTC could feel the pressure before any decision if new data pushes yields and the dollar higher.“Resilient labor data or further hawkish signals could extend the rise in yields and support the dollar, while softer figures could prompt traders to scale back expectations of an October move and limit the currency’s gains,” Kooijman said.As “Red September” colors the leaves, Bitcoin stays greenBitcoin traders call the months “Red September” and “Uptober” because of their opposing track records. Bitcoin fell in five straight Septembers from 2017 through 2021, while October finished higher in 10 of the 13 completed years according to data compiled by CoinGlass.September has the lowest average return of any month in its table, at -2.34%. Source: CoinGlassHowever, Bitcoin has not closed September in the red since 2022. It gained in September 2023, 2024 and 2025, and is up 7.35% so far this month.October has averaged a 19.92% increase, second only to November. But “Uptober” failed to deliver last year, when Bitcoin fell 3.69%.Magazine: Winners and losers of the SEC’s new tokenized stocks rules

Cointelegraph is committed to providing independent, high-quality journalism across the crypto, blockchain, AI, and fintech industries.All news, reviews, and analyses are produced with full journalistic independence and integrity. For more details on our standards and processes, please read our Editorial Policy.

None of the 15 institutions interviewed by asset manager Bitwise cut their crypto allocations during a roughly 50% market drawdown, while several bought more.Every institution in the group that owned crypto held Bitcoin (BTC), usually as its largest and longest-held position, while Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) were smaller bets with shorter investment horizons and conditions for selling.Bitwise’s Institutional Crypto Adoption Report draws on interviews conducted in late March and April amid a market decline that began in October 2025. The interviews included investment professionals at endowments, foundations, public pensions, sovereign wealth funds, multi-family offices, investment consultants and public companies.When asked what could prompt them to sell, none of the institutions cited falling prices. Instead, respondents pointed to a regulatory reversal, an industry-wide credibility crisis or a failure of their investment thesis. Some said they would sell Ether or Solana if growth in network use failed to benefit the tokens.Related: Bitwise launches first Lighter ETP amid Hyperliquid rivalryCrypto allocations among those with exposure ranged from 0.5% to 13% of investable assets, though most were between 1% and 2%. Bitwise said almost every institution interviewed either used spot crypto exchange-traded funds or planned to, with some investors shifting from private placements or direct custody toward ETFs.A 13F data report from CoinShares published in June found that professional investors’ reported US spot Bitcoin ETF exposure fell 17% in the first quarter. Hedge funds and brokerages accounted for roughly 96% of the reduction, while banks added exposure.Bitcoin leads institutional conviction as ETH, SOL face ‘prove it’ testFor almost all the Bitcoin holders interviewed, it was their first, largest and longest-held crypto asset. Most treated BTC as a store of value, often alongside gold.Conviction around ETH and SOL was less consistent. Several institutions said they could exit ETH or SOL over the next few years if growth in areas such as stablecoins, decentralized finance and tokenization failed to translate into value accruing to the assets themselves.One institution that held neither Ether nor Solana had used DeFi applications extensively but saw no clear way that activity would benefit the underlying tokens, according to Bitwise.Magazine: Winners and losers of the SEC’s new tokenized stocks rules

Bitcoin (BTC) was rejected near $87,000 on Wednesday as onchain data showed negative spot demand.Key points:Bitcoin suffered a correction below $84,000 around Wednesday’s Wall Street open, causing $280 million in long liquidations over the course of four hours.Analysis saw $82,000 as key support to hold in the event of a further breakdown.Bitcoin cumulative spot demand remained negative on a rolling 30-day time frameBTC price falls toward $84,000, nears week-to-date low Data from TradingView tracked a second attempt to break beyond $87,000 before BTC/USD fell to local lows under $84,000 into the Wall Street open.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThese levels marked the upper and lower boundaries of a narrow intraday range. Liquidity thickened on both sides of the spot price as traders attempted to force a breakout from the sideways range. Data from CoinGlass tallied liquidations over the four hours prior to the time of writing at $280 million.BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlassCommenting on the current landscape, trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged $82,000 as a level for bulls to hold should the low-timeframe structure break down.“For bullish continuation and to avoid reverting back into the $60k-$80k Range, Bitcoin would need to stay above or at minimum successfully retest ~$82k on any future dip,” he wrote in a post on X.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.comAs Cointelegraph reported, the current range has implications for certain investor cohorts. The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have their aggregate cost basis at just below $86,000.Earlier, analysis highlighted $90,000 as the likely next area in which BTC/USD will consolidate due to the increased likelihood of profit-taking by traders.Spot demand shows only modest improvementDespite gaining over 35% since the week beginning Aug. 17, Bitcoin faces an ongoing struggle to attract spot-market demand.Related: Crypto metric signals altseason as Bitcoin market-cap share stalls below 60%In its latest research, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant claimed that interest was still largely confined to derivatives markets.“The negative value of $BTC spot demand has narrowed slightly, while futures demand continues to increase. Total demand is also showing a slight recovery compared to the previous day,” it reported in a blog post on the day.An accompanying chart showed that cumulative 30-day apparent spot demand measured -180,000 BTC as of Tuesday. Negative values reflect supply outpacing demand over the 30-day lookback period.“Although total demand remains in negative territory, the trend is shifting toward the positive. If the current momentum persists, spot demand will also flip to positive. That moment will mark the beginning of a more significant rally,” CryptoQuant added.Bitcoin spot vs. futures apparent demand (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin (BTC) faces its “next real test” at $90,000 as traders continue to return to unrealized profit.Key points:Bitcoin profit-takers may stall BTC price upside at $90,000, CryptoQuant predicts.Onchain signals, including price reclaiming its 365-day moving average at $80,500, led analysts to call the start of the next bull market.CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju sees future cycle tops and bottoms as shallower thanks to institutional ownership.Profit-taking means “natural pause” for BTC price at $90,000In its latest weekly report issued on Tuesday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant warned that the area around $90,000 will bring increased odds of profit-taking should price reach it.Bitcoin traders’ realized price — the average acquisition price of BTC that last moved onchain between one and three months ago — currently sits at $64,300. CryptoQuant data shows upper and lower bands around this level, signifying profit or loss margins for this cohort of the supply. The “upper band” for profit-taking sits at $90,300, or 40% above the realized price.“The upper band coincides with the $88K–$90K on-chain supply cluster, making it the next resistance to clear. Historically, as price approaches the upper band, trader profit margins stretch and selling can intensify — a natural pause point within an uptrend, not a reversal,” CryptoQuant analysts stated.Bitcoin trader realized price data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantThe report describes the path between current spot price at $86,000 and the profit-taking zone as “largely clear” while seeing no return to bear-market conditions.“The bull market is confirmed. Technicals, valuation and on-chain data now point the same way — up,” it continued, echoing a previous assertion from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.In an X post this week, Ki saw future Bitcoin price cycles becoming less extreme than previous ones thanks to a shift from retail to institutional BTC ownership. “Today, a much larger market and growing institutional ownership are dampening both extremes. The same forces that limit the upside also soften the downside,” he wrote.Bitcoin profitability stabilizes in 2026Ki noted that during the 2026 bear market, Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio did not fall below its breakeven point of 1 at any point, signaling that the broader investor base remained in aggregate profit throughout — a clear contrast to prior macro downtrends.Related: Bitcoin adds to bull-market hopes as price metric prints fourth-ever bullish crossAs Cointelegraph reported, MVRV has now crossed above its 365-day moving average — an event that signaled the end of both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.Bitcoin MVRV ratio. Source: CryptoQuantNew capital inflows to Bitcoin remain notably high this month. The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net inflows of $1.7 billion for the first two days of the week, per data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors. Monday’s $999 million tally constituted the largest single-day total since October 2025.Bitcoin ETF netflows data. Source: Farside Investors