Značka: FOMC

Ethereum options data shows pro traders expect strong resistance at $3,600

Ether (ETH) price has bounced 13% from its Jan. 9 low at $2,950, but it seems premature to call the move a cycle bottom. Instead, the larger bearish movement has prevailed and although it looks primarily correlated to Bitcoin (BTC) price, regulatory concerns and a tighter United States Federal Reserve policy have also been blamed for the movement.BTC and Ether have been under pressure since regulators focused their attention on stablecoins. On Nov. 1, the U.S. Treasury Department urged Congress to ensure that stablecoin issuers are regulated similarly to U.S. banks. ETH/USD price at FTX. Source: TradingViewCurrently, the descending channel formation initiated in mid-November shows resistance at $3,850 resistance. The average network transaction fees have also risen back above $50 and the longer that the Ethereum 2.0 upgrade takes to occur, the better the situation will be for competing chains.Regardless of the rationale behind Ether’s 28% price drop over the past six weeks, bulls missed the opportunity to secure a $300 million profit in the Jan. 14 weekly options expiry. Unfortunately for them, this $4,500 and higher scenario seems unfeasible at the moment.Ether options aggregate open interest for Jan. 14. Source: Coinglass.comThe call-to-put ratio shows an 89% advantage for bulls because the $380 million call (buy) instruments have a larger open interest versus the $200 million put (sell) options. The current 1.89 measure is deceptive because the recent Ether price drop caused most of the bullish bets to become worthless.For example, if Ether’s price remains below $3,300 at 8:00 am UTC on Jan. 14, only $24 million worth of these call (buy) options will be available, but there is no value in having the right to buy Ether at $3,300 if it is trading below that price.Related: Cointelegraph Consulting – A look at Terra’s ecosystemBears need ETH price below $3,300 to secure a $65 million profitBelow are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of option contracts available on Jan. 14 for bulls (call) and bear (put) instruments vary depending on the expiry ETH price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:Between $3,100 and $3,300: 7,400 calls vs. 27,800 puts. The net result favors bears by $65 million.Between $3,300 and $3,500: 22,200 calls vs. 19,300 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.Above $3,500: 32,500 calls vs. 15,600 puts. The net result is $60 million favoring the call (bull) instruments.This crude estimate considers call options being used in bullish bets and put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.For instance, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining a positive exposure to Ether above a specific price. But, unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.Bulls don’t stand a chanceEther bulls would have had a decent $300 million advantage if the price held above $4,500. However, the current scenario requires a 6% positive move from $3,300 to $3,500 to generate a $60 million advantage. Considering there are less than 12 hours until Friday’s options expiry, bulls will likely concentrate their efforts on keeping the price above $3,300 to balance out the scales. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Data shows Bitcoin traders’ neutral view ahead of Friday’s $750M BTC options expiry

Bitcoin (BTC) has bounced 11% from the $39,650 low hit on Jan. 10 and, currently, the price is battling with the $44,000 level. There are multiple explanations for the recent weakness, but none of them seem sufficient enough to justify the 42% correction that took place since the Nov. 10 all-time high at $69,000.At the time (Nov. 12), negative remarks from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) were issued at the rejection of VanEck’s physical Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). The regulatory body cited the inability to avoid market manipulation due to unregulated exchanges and heavy trading volume based on Tether’s (USDT) stablecoin.Then, on Dec. 17, the U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council recommended that state and federal regulators review regulations and the tools that could be applied to digital assets. On Jan. 5, BTC price corrected again after the Federal Reserve’s December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) session, which confirmed plans to ease debt buyback and likely increase interest rates.Regarding derivatives markets, if Bitcoin price trades below $42,000 by the Jan. 14 expiry, bears will have a $75 million net profit on their BTC options.Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Jan. 14. Source: CoinglassAt first sight, the $455 million call (buy) options are overshadowing the $295 million puts, but the 1.56 call-to-put ratio is deceptive because the 14% price drop over the last three weeks will likely wipe out most of the bullish bets.If Bitcoin’s price remains below $44,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Jan. 14, only $44 million worth of those call (buy) options will be available at the expiry. There is no value in the right to buy Bitcoin at $44,000 if BTC is trading below that price.Bears might bag a $75 million profit if BTC is below $42,000Here are the four most likely scenarios for the $750 million options expiry on Jan. 14. The imbalance favoring each side represents the theoretical profit. In practice, depending on the expiry price, the quantity of call (buy) and put (sell) contracts becoming active varies:Between $40,000 and $43,000: 480 calls vs. 2,220 puts. The net result is $75 million favoring the put (bear) options.Between $43,000 and $44,000: 1,390 calls vs. 1,130 puts. The net result is balanced between call and put options.Between $44,000 and $46,000: 1,760 calls vs. 660 puts. The net result is $50 million favoring the call (bull) options.Between $46,000 and $47,000: 1,220 calls vs. 520 puts. The net result is $125 million favoring the call (bull) options.This crude estimate considers put options being used in neutral-to-bearish bets and call options exclusively in bullish trades. However, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.For instance, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining a positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price. But, unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.Related: Traders say Bitcoin run to $44K may be a relief bounce, citing a repeat of December’s ‘nuke’ Bulls need $46,000 for a decent winThe only way bulls can score a significant gain on the Jan. 14 expiry is by sustaining Bitcoin’s price above $46,000. However, if the current short-term negative sentiment prevails, bears could easily pressure the price down 4% from the current $43,800 and raise the profit by up to $75 million if Bitcoin price stays below $42,000.Currently, options markets seem balanced, giving bulls and bears equal odds for Friday’s expiry.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price bounces to $41.5K, but derivatives data shows traders lack confidence

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly reached its lowest level in five months this Monday at $39,650, marking a 42.6% drawdown from the all-time high present on Nov 22, 2022. Some argue that a “crypto winter” has already begun citing the $2.1 billion leverage-long aggregate crypto futures contracts that were liquidated over the past seven days.Bitcoin/USD price at FTX. Source: TradingViewThe descending channel guiding Bitcoin’s negative performance for the past 63 days indicates that traders should expect sub-$40,000 prices by February.Confidence from investors continued to decline after the United States Federal Reserve’s December FOMC session on Jan. 5. The monetary policy authority showed commitment to decrease its balance sheet and increase interest rates in 2022.On Jan. 5, Kazakhstan’s political turmoil added further pressure to the markets. The country’s internet was shut down amid protests and this caused Bitcoin’s network hashrate to tumble 13.4%. Futures traders are still neutralTo analyze how bullish or bearish professional traders are, one should monitor the futures premium , which is also known as the “basis rate.”The indicator measures the difference between longer-term futures contracts and current market levels. A 5% to 15% annualized premium is expected in healthy markets, which is a situation known as contango.This price gap is caused by sellers demanding more money to withhold settlement longer and a red alert emerges whenever this indicator fades or turns negative, which is a scenario known as “backwardation.”Bitcoin 3-month future contracts basis rate. Source: Laevitas.chNotice how the futures market premium did not trade below 7% over the past couple of months. This is an excellent indicator considering the absence of Bitcoin price strength during this period.Options traders are not as bullishTo exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument, one should also analyze the options markets.The 25% delta skew compares similar call (buy) and put (sell) options. This metric will turn positive when fear is prevalent because the protective put options premium is higher than similar risk call options.The opposite holds when greed is the prevalent mood which causes the 25% delta skew indicator to shift to the negative area.Deribit Bitcoin options 25% delta skew. Source: laevitas.chReadings between negative 8% and positive 8% are usually deemed neutral. The last time the 25% delta skew indicator entered the “fear” range at 10% was on Dec 6, 2022.Related: Bitcoin drops below $40K for first time in 3 months as fear set to ‘accelerate’Thus, options markets’ traders are at the very edge of the neutral-to-bearish sentiment because the indicator currently stands at 8%. Moreover, buying protective put options is becoming more expensive, so market markers and arbitrage desks are not confident that $39,650 was the bottom.Overall, the sentiment is pessimistic and the $2.1 billion in aggregate futures contracts liquidations signal that derivatives traders’ longs (buyers) are quickly losing confidence. Only time will tell where the exact bottom is, but presently, there is not an indication of strong support coming from pro traders.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Markets rally after FOMC meeting, but Bitcoin bears still have a short-term advantage

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has been in a down-trend since the $69,000 all-time high on Nov. 10, when the the Labor report showed inflation pushing above 6.2% in the United States. While this news could be beneficial for non-inflationary assets, the VanEck physical Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) denial by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Nov. 12 threw some investors off-guard.Bitcoin/USD price on Coinbase. Source: TradingViewWhile the ETF request denial was generally expected, the reasons given by the regulator may be worrisome for some investors. The U.S. SEC cited the inability to avoid market manipulation on the broader Bitcoin market due to unregulated exchanges and heavy trading volume based on Tether’s (USDT) stablecoin.Analyzing the broader market structure is extremely relevant, especially considering that investors closely monitor meetings held by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Regardless of the magnitude of the upcoming tapering in the Fed’s bond and assets repurchase program, Bitcoin’s movements have been tracking the U.S. Treasury yields over the past 12 months.Bitcoin/USD at FTX (orange, left) vs. U.S. 10-year Treasury Yields (blue, right). Source: TradingViewThis tight correlation shows how decisive the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has been with riskier assets, including Bitcoin. Moreover, the yield decline over the past three weeks from 1.64 to 1.43 partially explains the weakness seen in the crypto market.Obviously, there are cother factors in play, for example, the market pullback on Nov. 26 was primarily based on concerns over the new COVID-19 variant. Regarding derivatives markets, a Bitcoin price below $48,000 gives bears complete control over Friday’s $755 million BTC options expiry.Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Dec. 17. Source: Coinglass.comAt first sight, the $470 million call (buy) options overshadow the $285 million put (sell) instruments, but the 1.64 call-to-put ratio is deceptive because the 14% price drop since Nov. 30 will likely wipe out most of the bullish bets.If Bitcoin’s price remains below $49,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Dec. 17, only $28 million worth of those call (buy) options will be available at the expiry. In short, there is no value in the right to buy Bitcoin at $49,000 if it is trading below that price.Bears are comfortable with Bitcoin below $57,000Here are the three most likely scenarios for the $755 million Friday’s options expiry. The imbalance favoring each side represents the theoretical profit. In other words, depending on the expiry price, the quantity of call (buy) and put (sell) contracts becoming active varies:Between $45,000 and $47,000: 110 calls vs. 2,400 puts. The net result is $105 million favoring the put (bear) options.Between $47,000 and $48,000: 280 calls vs. 1,900 puts. The net result is $75 million favoring the put (bear) instruments.Between $48,000 and $50,000: 1,190 calls vs. 1,130 puts. The net result is balanced between call and put options.This crude estimate considers call options being used in bullish bets and put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. However, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.For instance, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining a positive exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) above a specific price. But, unfortunately, there’s no easy way to estimate this effect.Bulls need $48,000 or higher to balance the scalesThe only way for bulls to avoid a significant loss in the Dec. 17 expiry is by sustaining Bitcoin’s price above $48,000. However, if the current short-term negative sentiment prevails, bears could easily pressure the price down 4% from the current $48,500 and profit up to $105 million if Bitcoin price stays below $47,000.Currently, options markets data slightly favor the put (sell) options, thus creating opportunities for additional negative pressure.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin struggles to hold $47K as Fed meeting adds to 'extreme' BTC market panic

Bitcoin (BTC) sought cues from the United States Federal Reserve on Dec. 14 as markets waited anxiously for news on policy. BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBTC higher lows remain safeData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD continuing in a range around $47,000 as Wall St. opened Wednesday.The pair had hit local highs of $48,785 on Bitstamp overnight but was down 3% at the time of writing ahead of a key Fed meeting.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will begin discussions at 2 pm Eastern Time, with expectations focusing on interest rates, inflation and asset purchase tapering.A hawkish stance is foremost in analysts’ minds, this potentially causing pain for risk asset holders in the short term should the Fed’s approach become less liberal.”Markets are forward looking. Crypto even more so bc it’s not under anyone’s control. It’s the only free market left in the world,” popular crypto trader Pentoshi summarized in a Twitter discussion on the issue. “The Fed is still adding to it’s balance sheet but at a decreased rate. Smart money prepped last month. Slow money this week.”Traditional markets were similarly directionless, with the S&P 500 down 0.22% on the day.As Cointelegraph reported, with Bitcoin underperforming compared to what many assumed Q4 2021 would look like, consensus is building that 2022 will form the market cycle peak for both BTC and altcoins.”The panic & bearish sentiment towards BTC is extreme right now. But there’s nothing extreme about this -38% retrace,” fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital reiterated. “Over the years, BTC has retraced 30-40% many times in Bull Markets In fact, $BTC retraced -53% this past May -38% isn’t extreme.” Rekt Capital previously noted that that a close above $42,300 still represents a higher low formation for BTC/USD.Fear is all aroundOn altcoin markets, the mood was more pronounced in its skew to the downside.Related: Bitcoin sheds ‘dumb money’ as retail buys most BTC since March 2020 crashOut of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap, all except Solana (SOL) were mildly in the red on daily timeframes.Dogecoin (DOGE), fresh from its Tesla publicity the before, managed to secure around half of its 25% gains.”Right now, people are easily selling their bags as they are convinced a huge drop will happen tonight,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe argued.The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 28/100, up from 21/100 on Tuesday, marking a transition from “extreme fear” to “fear” within its own range reflective of Bitcoin’s recent moves.Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

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