Značka: exchange

BTC price sees 'double top' before FOMC — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) begins a key week of internal and macroeconomic events still trading above $20,000.After its highest weekly close since mid-September, BTC/USD remains tied to higher levels within a macro trading range.Bulls have been keen to shift the trend entirely, while warnings from more conservative market participants continue to call for macro lows to enter next.So far, a tug-of-war between the two parties is what has characterized BTC price action, and any internal or external triggers have only had a temporary effect. What could change that? The first week of November contains a key event which has the potential to shape price behavior going forward — a decision by the United States Federal Reserve on interest rate hikes.In addition to other macroeconomic data, this will form the backdrop to overall market sentiment beyond crypto.Bitcoin will further see a monthly close during the week, this apt to spark last-minute volatility despite October 2022 being one of the quietest on record.Cointelegraph takes a look at these and several other factors impacting BTC/USD in the coming days.FOMC countdown enters final daysThe headline story of the week comes courtesy of the Fed and the meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).On Nov. 1-2, officials will make a decision on the November benchmark interest rate hike, this overwhelmingly priced in at 0.75%.While this will match the Fed’s previous two hikes in September and July, respectively, markets will be watching for something else — subtle hints of a change in quantitative tightening (QT).The rates decision is due Wednesday at 2pm Eastern time, along with an accompanying statement and economic projections.Fed Chair Jerome Powell will then deliver a speech at 2:30pm, this completing the backdrop to market reactions.As Cointelegraph reported, there is already talk that subsequent rate hikes will begin to trend towards neutral, marking the end of an aggressive policy enacted almost a year ago.For Bitcoin and risk assets in general, this could ultimately provide some serious fuel for growth as conditions loosen. Looking at the short term, however, commentators expect a standard reaction to the upcoming FOMC announcement.“Think we see a little pullback this week which is pretty typical when the FED will be announcing rates,” popular trading account IncomeSharks summarized to Twitter followers. “4h showing a double top and downtrend break.”An accompanying chart showed the expected retracement to be followed by more potential upside going forward.BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: IncomeSharks/ TwitterAn alternative perspective came from analyst Kevin Svenson this weekend, who warned that with inflation expectations “increasing,” there was little reason to hope for a rate hike decrease in the near future.“Every time the Stock Market rallied up in this current downtrend, it did so with the expectation of a FED pivot,” he noted. “Inflation expectations increasing recently making a FED pivot less likely. The trend is ur friend? If so, Stocks find another lower high after FOMC.”Svenson continued that should the Fed surprise with a lower hike than 0.75%, bullish momentum should “take over.”“Obviously, this could be wrong if the FED does a “soft pivot” and goes for 50 basis points,” he added. “If that occurs, the market would get excited and bullish speculation would take over for the time being.”According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the chances of a lower hike than 0.75% are currently 19%. Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME GroupIn a summary of the FOMC event, popular analyst @Tedtalksmacro meanwhile drew similarities with Svenson’s take.“There’s lots of talk about a ‘pivot’ or that ‘the Fed are breaking things and need to stop hiking.’ But, the data says otherwise and points to nothing other than hawkishness again this week,” it said.”Clear double top” sparks BTC downside talkBitcoin managed to avoid major volatility as it closed the weekly candle at around $20,625 on Bitstamp, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.That in itself was noteworthy, marking the highest weekly candle close in six weeks for BTC/USD.BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewThe daily chart meanwhile retains the 100-day moving average as current resistance.BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) with 100MA. Source: TradingViewNonetheless, the long-established trading range the pair has acted in for months on end remains firmly in place, and even last week’s push higher failed to produce a significant paradigm shift.For analyst Mark Cullen, it is thus a question of “wait and see” when it comes to Bitcoin’s next move.In fresh analysis on Oct. 31, he noted BTC/USD had returned to a familiar Fibonacci level based on last week’s upside while continuing to range.“Bitcoin pulled back to the 20.4k level at the 61.8 of the last push up & has held it so far,” he explained. “With the FOMC meeting this week, i wonder if BTC just range between here & 21k until a catalyst pushes it in one direction or the other. Levels are clear, sit & wait.”Tedtalksmacro drew a similar conclusion on macro markets in general — they expect the “same old hawkishness” from the Fed, and thus even FOMC delivering no surprises should be enough for last week’s bullish tone to continue.“Nothing new is bullish — as the market seems prepared for all of the hawkishness that we have heard so far,” he concluded. “Expect volatility this week and if everything goes smoothly, for a really, really hated rally.”Crypto trader and analyst Il Capo of Crypto meanwhile called the two spikes above $21,000 in recent days a “clear double top” for Bitcoin.His target of a reversion to downside and new macro lows, possibly coming in at $14,000, remains in force.BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Il Capo of Crypto/ TwitterToo early to bottomComparisons between this year and 2018, Bitcoin’s last bear market, are abundant currently — but it may be a case of “too much, too soon.”In analysis released late last week, on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant argued that while Bitcoin is putting the pieces of the puzzle in place to bottom out, the market is not there yet.“Similar to the bottoms in 2015 and 2018-2019, bitcoin prices have been trading in a narrow range (between $18,000 and $20,000 for almost two months),” it began. “Price volatility has also dropped to one of its lowest levels ever and surged. When price volatility was this low in the past, it typically indicated that the downward trend was about to end. But in 2018, low price volatility was swiftly followed by a 50% price drop from $6.5k to $3.2k in just one month.”CryptoQuant flagged two important on-chain metrics — MVRV and UTXO Realized Cap — supporting the theory that the next bear market bottom is still a way off.MVRV divides Bitcoin’s market cap by realized cap, and is “useful,” in the words of popular analyst Willy Woo, for detecting overbought oversold conditions, as well as macro tops and bottoms.UTXO Realized Cap is the price at which different cohorts of bitcoins were transferred compared to the prior time, giving an insight into profit and loss.“MVRV and UTXO Realized Cap 6 months and older Age Bands show that the price of bitcoin is in the value range,” CryptoQuant continued. “However, a reasonable length of time needs to pass before the 1-3 months UTXO Age Band Realized Price is overtaken for a prolonged growth trend. Currently, this level is at $21,264.”As such, levels above $21,000 need to hold for the trend to change, and so far, that line in the sand has proven impossible to hold for hours, let alone weeks.“We have seen that market bottoms can be correlated with unusually low volatility in bitcoin prices,” CryptoQuant concluded. “Nevertheless, many of the on-chain measures we have examined still do not support the conclusion that the price has reached its bottom and is rising.”Bitcoin UTXO Realized Cap annotated chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantSupply shock risk highest since 2017Bitcoin dormant for up to a decade has been on the move recently, but overall, the BTC supply is becoming more and more illiquid.Fresh data this week provides the latest hint that an increase in buyer interest could spark a considerable supply squeeze and associated price hike.Highlighting data from on-chain analytics firm Coin Metrics, Jack Neureuter, a researcher at Fidelity Digital Assets, revealed that the percentage of the supply moved in the past year is now at an all-time low.33.7% of all available BTC has left its wallet since the end of October 2021, this also accounting for the increased volumes around November’s $69,000 all-time high.“Put another way, 2/3 of $BTC supply hasn’t moved the past 365 days,” Neureuter added in comments. “Marginal trading drives prices over the short-term, but large imbalances between supply and demand tend to do so in the long-term.”Bitcoin % supply last moved in past year chart. Source: Jack Neureuter/ TwitterSeparate data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode meanwhile shows that the chances of a supply shock are rising.Its Illiquid Supply Shock Ratio metric, which models the phenomenon, has been trending higher throughout 2022, and is currently at levels not seen since Bitcoin’s all-time high from the last halving cycle in 2017.Bitcoin Illiquid Supply Shock chart. Source: GlassnodeSentiment hits six-week highs with pricePerhaps unsurprisingly, crypto market sentiment has improved thanks to last week’s price increases.Related: BNB jumps to new BTC all-time high as Elon Musk’s Twitter fuels DOGE bullsIn a sign of how much — or little — it takes to flip sentiment around, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit its highest levels in six weeks over the weekend.Fear & Greed uses a basket of factors to determine how bullish or bearish the mood in crypto is, and whether the market is due for a bounce or correction as a result.At 34/100, sentiment even managed to escape the “extreme fear” zone, which has become commonplace in 2022.Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.meMoreover, data from analytics firm Santiment suggested that long-term holders are planning to hodl through volatility.“With Bitcoin back above $20.7k, traders appear to be content with long-term holding as coins continue moving away from exchanges,” it wrote in a tweet at the weekend.Santiment additionally showed that the ratio of the BTC supply on exchanges was now at its lowest since 2018 — the year of the last macro bear market bottom. “With the ratio of $BTC on exchanges down to 8.3%, it’s the lowest seen in 4 years. October has been a big outflow month,” the post stated.Bitcoin exchange supply annotated chart. Source: Santiment/ TwitterThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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A record 55,000 Bitcoin, or over $1.1 billion, was just withdrawn from Binance

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen record buying activity as BTC/USD returns to six-week highs.The latest data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows more BTC leaving major exchange Binance in a single day than ever before.Binance finishes the day 55,000 BTC lighterDespite warnings that a macro bottom may not yet have occurred, Bitcoin investors have wasted no time snapping up BTC above $20,000.The past two days’ gains delivered a sea change to exchange user behavior, with BTC balances dropping across the board.As the largest exchange by volume, Binance was of particular interest and saw a net position change of over 55,000 BTC on Oct. 26 — the most ever.The outflows beat all other buying sprees, including the $17,600 dip in June this year and the March 2020 crash.Bitcoin exchange netflow (Binance) chart. Source: CryptoQuantCryptoQuant contributor Binh Dang further noted that derivatives platform outflows were setting multi-month records.“In 1 year from now, yesterday was the day with the biggest number of coins moved out of the derivatives exchange: 71,579 Bitcoin,” he wrote in one of the firm’s Quicktake posts, noting that internal moves could have made up some of the total.“That number contributes to bringing the outflow of BTC from derivatives exchanges to 94,024 Bitcoin. This is the most significant number since July. This amount has helped drastically reduce the total reserves on derivatives exchanges after spiking since Bitcoin’s price dropped in May.”Dang added that such derivatives outflows had once accompanied decreased sell-side pressure on Bitcoin more broadly.“While there is still a lack of on-chain confirmation of Bitcoin bottoming, looking back at the history of late 2018, we will see the difference,” he concluded. “In the strongest price declines in the two years before 2020, and 2021, each appearance of a strong downtrend on derivative reserve showed a similar decrease in selling pressure. How about this time?”Bitcoin derivative exchange netflow chart. Source: CryptoQuantGains have “not changed” Bitcoin bear marketTurning to exchanges’ stock of BTC, from Oct. 25 through Oct. 26, the major platforms tracked by CryptoQuant saw around 42,500 BTC in net outflows.Related: Why is the crypto market up today?Unlike with Binance, cross-platform position change did not set a global record, with June remaining higher.Bitcoin exchange netflow chart. Source: CryptoQuantSumming up, fellow CryptoQuant contributor IT Tech warned that the good times may not last long. The United States Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates could deliver an unwelcome pivot.“For me it could mean that is some kind of fake pump before FOMC meetings 2.11.2022,” he wrote in a further Quicktake. “DXY is going down and helped S&P500 and Bitcoin grown up. Be careful because we are still in Bear market and one small pump not changed this.”The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Capitulation or profit-taking? Bitcoin whale moves 32K BTC dormant since 2018

Bitcoin (BTC) worth over $600 million moved for the first time since the last bear market on Oct. 18, analysis has revealed.In a Twitter thread, monitoring resource Whalemap flagged a transaction involving 32,000 BTC.Buyer could be “willing to acquire” 32,000 BTC at $19,000In the latest sign that current spot price is affecting the behavior of even longer-term holders, a whale entity who purchased BTC near the pit of the last bear market appears to have sold.According to Whalemap, 32,000 coins left their wallet for the first time since December 2018 this week.“32,000 Bitcoins belonging to a whale wallet moved yesterday. They were dormant since Dec 2018,” the Whalemap team wrote in accompanying commentary. While it is unknown exactly what was behind the decision, Whalemap was quick to argue an alternative perspective to the classic bear market narrative — major investors capitulating at the lows. The team added:“Transactions like this usually signify OTC trades, meaning someone is willing to acquire those 32k bitcoins right now.” Despite BTC/USD being down over 70% from all-time highs, the 32,000 BTC stash would have made a significant profit, having been purchased at $3,900.Four years later, they are worth $612 million versus the roughly $124 million paid.Bitcoin whale outflows annotated chart. Source: Whalemap/ TwitterContinuing, Whalemap noted that due to the popularity of the 2018 lows as a buy-in point, that price zone represents a significant area of support.“Not many people know about this but a lot of Bitcoin was accumulated by whales exactly in the region that the above transaction is coming from,” it wrote. “Even right now, 337k of accumulated BTC is still being HODLed in those wallets. A super important area in BTC land to keep ur [eye] on.”Bitcoin wall inflows annotated chart. Source: Whalemap/ TwitterExchange balances accelerate fallSigns that even $19,000 is becoming popular as a BTC trading or investment play are coming from exchanges this month. Related: Here’s what could spark a ‘huge BTC rally’ as Bitcoin clings to $19KData from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that over the past few days, major exchanges have seen their BTC balances decreasing more per day relative to the previous month than at any time since mid-July.The 19 trading platforms tracked by Glassnode were down roughly 100,000 BTC in the past 30 days on both Oct. 18 and Oct. 19.The last date that exchanges ended the day with more BTC than they started with versus a month prior was Oct. 8.Bitcoin exchange 30-day net position change chart. Source: GlassnodeExchanges’ total balance was just over 2.34 million BTC as of Oct. 19, down from 2.46 million at the end of September.Bitcoin exchange balance chart. Source: GlassnodeThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Mt. Gox trustee releases repayment procedures update

Mt. Gox trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi released updated information on Wednesday regarding the rehabilitation plan for creditors of the long-defunct crypto exchange. According to the file, the restriction reference period starts on September 15. During the phase, “the assignment, transfer or succession, provision as collateral, or disposition by other means of rehabilitation claims are prohibited.”Kobayashi confirmed that creditors have until September 15 to submit claims regarding funds lost when the early crypto exchange collapsed in 2014:”During the Assignment, etc. Restriction Reference Period, the Rehabilitation Trustee will cease accepting applications for claim transfer procedures through the Rehabilitation Claim Filing System.”The document is unclear about the deadline for the restriction period but confirms that it will be followed by the first entire repayment to creditors, as outlined in the Rehabilitation Plan approved by roughly 99% of the eligible users affected by the case.The file also stated that if a notice of transfer is submitted during the restriction period, the trustee may be unable to determine whom to repay:”This may result in rehabilitation creditors being unable to receive their preferred Repayments, the Repayment date being delayed significantly compared to other rehabilitation creditors, or at worst, the Repayment amount may be deposited with the Tokyo Legal Affairs Bureau in accordance with laws and regulations.”Earlier this week, Twitter rumors about a 137,000 BTC dump put pressure on crypto markets. Creditors later dismissed the speculation on social media. Mt. Gox was one of the earliest cryptocurrency exchanges, and at one time facilitated more than 70% of all trades made within the blockchain ecosystem. Following a major hack in 2011, the site subsequently collapsed in 2014 due to alleged insolvency; the fallout affected about 24,000 creditors and resulted in the loss of 850,000 BTC. In November 2021, the exchange’s trustee confirmed that the rehabilitation plan was in Japan’s court system. It is one of the final steps in a long process that began in 2018 with a petition to compensate creditors.

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Huobi gets green light as exchange provider in Australia

Crypto exchange Huobi can begin offering cryptocurrency exchange services in Australia after its registration as a digital currency exchange provider with the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (AUSTRAC) on Aug. 1. This means Huobi can now offer fiat to cryptocurrency trading services in the country.Cointelegraph has reached out to Huobi to ascertain whether it will be able to offer full exchange services. The company initially indicated it would focus on providing OTC services after receiving its registration.The exchange continues to look at broadening its horizons and is also eyeing a move into the American market. Huobi formed an American subsidiary, HBIT, in July 2022. It has received a Money Services Business license, with the company hoping to launch exchange services in the future.Huobi also scored licenses in New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates in June 2022. Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) granted the exchange provisional approval to begin offering its services in the country. Huobi’s local entity will offer a full suite of cryptocurrency exchange products and services, which will operate under a test-adapt-scale model as part of the process of becoming licensed. Related: US expansion for Huobi a step closer after it secures a FinCEN licenseThe company had its struggles in Thailand during the same month, eventually shuttering after failing to comply with Thai Securities and Exchange Commission regulations.Huobi was forced to relocate to Gibraltar in late 2021 following the latest Chinese crackdown on cryptocurrency use in the country. The British Overseas Territory has become an attractive location for cryptocurrency businesses and service providers.

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