Značka: BTC price

Bitcoin sees worst monthly close in 2 years as traders watch $16.7K

Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to flip $17,000 to support on Dec. 1 after sealing its lowest monthly close in two years.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin gains inch up as November endData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling $17,100 in a second intraday charge at higher levels. The pair managed to avoid losses as the monthly candle closed, instead seeing solid daily gains of around 4.5% for Nov. 30.Nonetheless, Bitcoin shed 16.2% for the month, making November 2022 its worst since 2019.BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: CoinglassThe more buoyant mood coincided with comments from the United States Federal Reserve. In a speech on inflation and the labor market, Chair Jerome Powell openly stated that smaller interest rate hikes could begin as soon as December.“Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with uncertain lags, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt,” he said. “Thus, it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down. The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.” Powell characteristically cautioned on heralding a full turning point in policy, something markets had been keenly awaiting throughout the year.“Given our progress in tightening policy, the timing of that moderation is far less significant than the questions of how much further we will need to raise rates to control inflation, and the length of time it will be necessary to hold policy at a restrictive level,” he added.Nonetheless, stocks reacted positively, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index ending the day up 3.1% and 4.4%, respectively, in line with Bitcoin.No euphoria among tradersIn responses of their own, meanwhile, crypto market commentators were equally cool on the immediate prospects despite the moderate month-end gains.Related: Bitcoin capitulation 4th-worst ever as BTC hodlers lose $10B in a weekCrypto Tony warned that bulls were “getting cocky” into December, and that now was not a suitable blind entry point.“Now is not the time to go all in, thinking this is the bottom on Crypto,” he told Twitter followers.“We have yet to see : – A macro higher high and higher low (Market structure trend change) – Bull volume coming in – Spot buys on the increase – Completed corrective structure.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/ TwitterA key level to hold for continuation of the “bullish market structure,” he added, was $16,700.Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, agreed on the importance of an area focused on $16,700 for his own strategy.The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Bitcoin capitulation 4th-worst ever as BTC hodlers lose $10B in a week

Bitcoin (BTC) hodlers have capitulated more than at almost any point in Bitcoin’s history this month.Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode confirms that the November 2022 BTC sell-off was the fourth-largest ever.Bitcoin investors see multi-billion-dollar lossesIn the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” Glassnode got to grips with the impact of the FTX debacle on BTC investors.The results have been mixed, it reveals, with a major loss of confidence, on one hand, triggering loss-making divestment of funds, while “strong accumulation” has also occurred.For those entering BTC in current conditions, however, life has been anything but easy.“One consistent event which motivates the transition from a bear back towards a bull market is the dramatic realization of losses, as investors give up and capitulate at scale,” Glassnode explained. “November has seen the fourth largest capitulation event on record, recording a 7-day realized loss of -$10.16B. This is 4.0x larger than the peak in Dec 2018, and 2.2x larger than March 2020.”Bitcoin realized loss 7-day sum annotated chart (screenshot). Source: GlassnodeWhile the dollar-value capitulation can be explained thanks to BTC/USD trading five times higher than in late 2018 and 4.5 times higher than in March 2020, it is no secret that cold feet have characterized crypto markets since FTX imploded.As Cointelegraph reported, directly following the event, hodlers were sitting on 50% of the BTC supply at an unrealized loss.Glassnode referenced Bitcoin’s adjusted market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio, which shows that coins moving on-chain are returning loss-making levels rarely seen before in what it calls “peak under-performance.”Adjusted MVRV ratio is the relationship between the market value of BTC and its realized value, minus the profit impact of coins dormant for seven years or longer.“This metric is currently returning a value of 0.63 (average unrealized loss of 37%), which is very significant since only 1.57% of trading days in bitcoin history have recorded a lower Adjusted MVRV value,” the newsletter stated. “In other words, if we discount profit held across the presumably lost supply, the current market is the most underwater it has been since the near pico-bottom set in Dec 2018 and Jan 2015.”Bitcoin adjusted MVRV ratio annotated chart (screenshot). Source: GlassnodeBuying the dip like it’s December 2018“The Week On-Chain” nonetheless contains some good news for market participants.Related: Bitcoin shrugs off BlockFi, China protests as BTC price holds $16KDespite the previous losses, hodlers have been accumulating BTC aggressively since — and the trend is encompassing everyone, from the smallest “shrimps” to the largest whales.“From a comparative point of view, the recent strong accumulation score following the recent sell-off resembles that of late 2018,” Glassnode stated.It added that similar black swan events in Bitcoin’s past, including recent ones such as the collapse of Terra’s LUNA, sparked similar investor reactions.An accompanying chart, the seven-day moving average (MA) of the Accumulation Trend Score, showed current conditions as purple — characteristic of mass accumulation. Yellow, conversely, points to mass distribution of BTC on the market.Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score (7-day MA) annotated chart (screenshot). Source: GlassnodeThe views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Bitcoin shrugs off BlockFi, China protests as BTC price holds $16K

Bitcoin (BTC) held crucial $16,000 support into Nov. 29 as bulls weathered ongoing FTX fallout and macro triggers.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewTrader teases BTC long as $16,500 reappearsData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed BTC/USD leaving lower levels untouched overnight.The pair had seen a flash downturn after the Nov. 27 weekly close thanks to uncertainty from China over COVID-19 measures.A recovery nonetheless took the market higher, with $16,500 coming into play at the time of writing. As Cointelegraph reported, traders and analysts had warned that it was all but essential to preserve current support, with a violation opening up the road to $14,000 or lower.Popular trader Crypto Tony even felt comfortable going long BTC on the day.“Flipping the EQ would be a safer long entry, but keeping this open with a tight stop loss is the best way for me,” he revealed to Twitter followers.An accompanying chart identified support and resistance zones in play on midrange timeframes.BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/ TwitterEven fresh repercussions over the FTX debacle failed to dent Bitcoin’s performance. Meanwhile, these came in the form of a bankruptcy filing and lawsuit from crypto lender BlockFi.The latest in a chain reaction sparked by FTX going under, the news came alongside a surprise resumption of salary payments by the defunct exchange.“Makes sense after this bounce, as we’ve created a HL on Bitcoin and aiming at resistance again,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, continued about a higher low (HL) on the 4-hour chart:“Taking out the range between $16.5-16.8K would trigger continuation towards $18K.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/ TwitterChina woes cool ahead of Fed Powell speechChina meanwhile formed the main macro focus on the day, with anti-lockdown protests’ impact on market sentiment nonetheless seeming to ease.Related: New BTC miner capitulation? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekAsian markets bounced back strongly, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 5.2% at the time of writing and the Shanghai Composite Index gaining 2.3%.Hang Seng Index (HSI) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView“We do not expect China policy to publicly shift away from the Zero Covid stance, however, we could see some easing of the policy privately and in localized areas,” Mohit Kumar, an analyst at investment banking firm Jefferies, wrote in a note quoted by Bloomberg.Nov. 30 looked set to be the key trading day of the week, with Bitcoin’s monthly close accompanied by a speech from Jerome Powell, Chair of the United States Federal Reserve.The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Bitcoin will ‘teleport’ to $14K or worse if BTC breaks $16K — Analyst

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered above $16,000 on the Nov. 28 Wall Street open as analysts diverged on what to expect from the next market move.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin spot price near key supportData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD maintaining the $16,000 support level at the time of writing amid misgivings over China’s impact on risk assets.After a modestly higher weekly close, the pair still lacked volatility as one commentator warned of a “teleport” toward $12,000 should $16,000 break.“When it breaks below 16k, it teleports to 12k-14k,” Il Capo of Crypto insisted.Popular Twitter account Credible Crypto asked where the volatility had gone, while Crypto Tony likewise identified $16,000 as a line in the sand for his own trading strategy.“Finally some movement .. Stop loss firmly remains at $16,000, but will close if hit and look for shorts if we then proceed to close below the support zone and flip into resistance,” part of a tweet read on the day. BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/TwitterFellow trader Pentoshi meanwhile focused on macro triggers as Chinese protests over the country’s COVID-19 containment strategies weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500, he predicted, was due a rejection next, setting the tone for a long-term downtrend to continue.S&P 500 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingView$19,500 could become the new BTC price ceilingOthers drew attention to the upcoming monthly close amid a lack of catalysts elsewhere at the start of the week.Related: New BTC miner capitulation? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekBeyond a source of potential volatility, trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin’s monthly closing price would determine its longer-term price range.“When BTC lost the ~$19500 level as support… It broke down into the ~$13900-$19500 Monthly Range,” he explained on the day. “Monthly Candle Close is coming up soon. A Monthly Close below ~$19500 would likely confirm the ~$13900-$19500 Range as its new playground.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/TwitterBTC/USD was down around 21% for the month of November at the time of writing, marking its worst November performance since its last bear market year in 2018. BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: CoinglassCointelegraph previously outlined potential bottom targets for the pair, among them those based on performance during previous bear markets.The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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New BTC miner capitulation? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) prepares to exit a grim November just above $16,000 — what could be on the menu for BTC price this week?In a time of what analyst Willy Woo has called “unprecedented deleveraging,” Bitcoin is far from out of the woods after losing over 20% this month.The impact of the FTX implosion remains unknown, and warning signs continue to flow in even after the first wave of crypto business bankruptcies.In particular this week, eyes are on miners, who are seeing profits squeezed by falling spot price and surging hash rate.Upheaval is in the air, and should another “capitulation” among miners occur, the entire ecosystem could be in for a further shock.As “max pain” looms for the average hodler, Cointelegraph takes a look at some of the main factors affecting BTC/USD in the short term.Bitcoin miners due “capitulation” — analystLike others, Bitcoin miners are seeing a major squeeze when it comes to selling accumulated BTC at a profit. It remains to be seen exactly how much financial pain the average miner is in, but one classic metric is preparing to call “capitulation” once more.Just months after the last such period, Hash Ribbons is warning that conditions are again becoming unsustainable.Hash Ribbons uses two moving averages of hash rate to infer conclusions about miner participation in the Bitcoin network. Crossovers of the trend lines denote capitulatory and recovery phases.For Kripto Mevismi, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, the time is approaching for the former to reappear.“So right now bitcoin difficulty is really high for miners so that means; costs are getting higher and doing business in this kind of environment is getting harder,” he wrote in a blog post. “That’s why miners do not work in full force. If they have efficient- new generation mining machines, they put them into work but that’s all. Inflation is high and people feels effect of living costs, bitcoin price is declining, mining cost and difficulty is getting higher. Tough environment for miners.”Bitcoin Hash Ribbons chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoinKripto Mevismi added that a significant change in mining difficulty could help the situation. Estimates from BTC.com for the next adjustment on Dec. 6 put the difficulty drop at 6.4% at the time of writing. Should it go to fruition, it will be the largest such drop since July 2021.BTC.com and others likewise estimate that hash rate is now declining from record levels as miners wind down operations.Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: BTC.comBTC/USD eyes volatility into monthly closeBTC/USD managed to stave off significant weekly losses at the latest candle close on Nov. 27.At around $16,400, the weekly close was a whisker higher than the previous week, with the pair still circling two-year lows, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewWith a lack of volatility characterizing intraday price action, traders and analysts remain cautious on the next step.“It’s a long holiday weekend so expect things to get interesting as we move towards the Weekly and Monthly close,” on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators wrote in part of a tweet last week.A subsequent post reiterated that the Nov. 30 close would likely spark fresh instability, with BTC/USD currently 21.25% down versus the start of the month.This makes November 2022 Bitcoin’s worst November since its previous bear market year in 2018, data from Coinglass confirms.BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: CoinglassOn shorter timeframes, popular trader Crypto Tony meanwhile highlighted $16,000 as a key zone to flip for higher levels to enter next, while keeping mindful of the longer-term trend.BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/ Twitter“Lower highs along with consolidating below a major resistance zone. If you want to enter safely, wait for a flip of the lows,” he summarized at the weekend.BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/ TwitterAs Cointelegraph extensively reported, Bitcoin’s next bear market bottom is the discussion point of the moment at present, and certain targets have become more popular than others.One vocal commentator calling for further downside, Il Capo of Crypto, thus reiterated his opinion that $12,000 could be next for BTC/USD.Highlighting the relationship between perpetual futures trading volume and spot price, he warned that current market structure was not supportive of further gains.“12000-14000 is likely. 40-50% drop for altcoins,” he stressed.Under the Bitcoin sea, hodlers accumulateBig or small, the population of the Bitcoin ecosystem is “aggressively” adding to its BTC exposure this month. In a positive sign for a future supply squeeze — where demand comes up against a larger portion of illiquid supply — accumulation appears to be gathering pace.According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, it is retail investors mostly responsible for the current trend.The smaller investors, referred to variously as “crabs” and “shrimps” depending on wallet balance, are increasing in numbers.“Bitcoin Shrimps (< 1$BTC) have added 96.2k $BTC to their holdings since FTX collapsed, an all-time high balance increase. This cohort now now hold over 1.21M $BTC, equivalent to 6.3% of the circulating supply,” Glassnode showed in a Twitter thread about the phenomenon.Bitcoin shrimp net position change chart. Source: Glassnode/ TwitterA further post noted:“Crabs (up to 10 $BTC) have also seen aggressive balance increase of 191.6k $BTC over the last 30-days. This is a convincing all-time-high, eclipsing the July 2022 peak of 126k $BTC/month.”Bitcoin "crab" net position change chart. Source: Glassnode/ TwitterAs Cointelegraph reported, part of the increase in smaller wallet numbers could be down to exchange users withdrawing funds to private storage.Woo flags inbound "max pain"For Willy Woo, the analyst behind popular statistics resource Woobull, on-chain metrics are pointing to Bitcoin’s next macro bottom being imminent.Highlighting three of them this weekend, Woo showed that to all intents and purposes, Bitcoin is behaving exactly as it did in the pit of previous bear markets.The portion of the BTC supply held at an unrealized loss, for example, is approaching macro lows, a phenomenon covered by the “Max Pain” model.“Bitcoin bottom is getting close under the Max Pain model. Historically BTC price reaches macro cycle bottoms when 58%-61% of coins are underwater (orange). Green shading adjusts for the coins locked up inside GBTC Trust,” Woo explained alongside a chart. Bitcoin Max Pain annotated chart. Source: Willy Woo/ TwitterContinuing, he noted that the MVRV Ratio value for BTC/USD is also targeting a “buy” zone, which has historically given investors maximum profit potential.MVRV is Bitcoin’s market cap divided by realized cap — the aggregate price at which each Bitcoin last moved. The resulting number has delivered buy and sell zones corresponding to price extremes.“MVRV ratio is deep inside the value zone,” Woo’s commentary stated. “Under this signal we were in already bottoming (1) until the latest FTX white swan debacle brought us back into a buy zone (2).”Bitcoin MVRV annotated chart. Source: Willy Woo/ TwitterWoo’s third chart, Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), was recently covered by Cointelegraph.“Use these charts at your own discretion, we are in an unprecedented time of deleveraging,” he added, cautioning that “Past cycles do not necessarily reflect future ones.”Macro mood rocked by China protestsSome key economic data from the United States is due this week, but crypto analysts are more focused on China. With an already fragile status quo hanging on inflation trends, unrest in the world’s factory could unsettle market performance, some warn.China is in the grip of a wave of protests against the government’s policy on COVID-19, with multiple cities defying lockdowns to demand an end to “COVID zero.”With this in mind, risk assets could be in for a rough ride if the situation spirals out of control.“Crucial area of Bitcoin couldn't break, so we're still consolidating within that range. On support now,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, explained. “If this is lost, I'd expect new lows to be seen on the markets, probably depending on China & FTX contagion this week.”Even mainstream media were warning of potential repercussions on the day, with John Toro, head of trading at exchange Independent Reserve, telling Bloomberg that “elevated contagion risk is being profiled into the cryptocurrency complex.”Asian stock markets were modestly down on the day, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.6% and 0.75%, respectively at the time of writing.Hang Seng Index 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingViewBitcoin bottoms in crude oilOn a related macro note, Bitcoin is now in line for “outperformance” in U.S. dollar terms, one well-known analyst has said.Related: Bitcoin may need $1B more on-chain losses before new BTC price bottomIn WTI crude oil terms, BTC price action is already at a macro low — and history calls for a resurgence, which includes a significant appreciation trend against USD.“We're finally at channel bottom,” TechDev confirmed at the weekend. “Bitcoin's crude oil (energy) purchasing power topped in April 2021. Now looks poised for another leg of outperformance (and rise in USD value).”BTC/WTI annotated chart. Source: TechDev/ TwitterAn accompanying chart drew specific parallels to Bitcoin’s performance at the pit of the last bear market in late 2018.As Cointelegraph reported, meanwhile, TechDev is far from the only voice calling for upside to characterize BTC price action going into the new year.The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Bitcoin 'millionaire' wallets drop 80% in year of BTC price bear market

Bitcoin (BTC) millionaires are becoming an increasingly rare breed as numbers fall 80% in a year.According to the latest data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, there are now just 23,000 wallets with a BTC balance worth $1 million or more.1 year, 90,000 fewer million-dollar BTC walletsIn yet another indication of how far the crypto market has fallen since Bitcoin’s last all-time highs, Bitcoin millionaires have been seriously feeling the pinch.Glassnode, which tracks multiple cohorts of BTC wallets, confirms that as of Nov. 25, there were 23,245 with a balance worth over $1 million. Contrast that with the scene from Nov. 8, 2021, when the tally hit its peak as BTC/USD approached its latest $69,000 all-time high — then, there were 112,898 “millionaire” wallets.Bitcoin wallets with a balance of $1 million or more chart. Source: GlassnodeSuch addresses have fallen in line with spot price itself, subject to modest selling by owners at various points of Bitcoin’s year-long bear market.Millionaire wallet numbers are down around 79% in that period, while BTC/USD saw a maximum drawdown of 77% this month, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin address numbers in “up only” modeAs Cointelegraph reported, meanwhile, the picture looks somewhat different in BTC terms. Since the FTX implosion, certain classes of wallet have been accumulating.Related: How low can the Bitcoin price go?In addition, as noted by co-founders of trading suite Decentrader this week, exchange users withdrawing funds to private storage and consolidating wallets likely account for the significant increase in wallets with 1 BTC or more.As of Nov. 27, these totaled over 952,000 — a record in Bitcoin’s history.Bitcoin wallets with a balance of 1 BTC or more chart. Source: GlassnodeGlassnode nonetheless shows that even the smallest classes of investor — those with 0.01 BTC or more in their wallets — have also grown in numbers recently.Overall, however, addresses with a non-zero balance have been in decline since Nov. 18, its data shows — a comparatively rare trend break last seen in April 2021.Bitcoin addresses with a non-zero balance chart. Source: GlassnodeThe views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Bitcoin price consolidation has shifted traders to these 4 altcoins

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a tight range since Thanksgiving Nov. 24, as traders are uncertain about the next directional move. Usually, in a bear market, analysts tend to become uber-bearish and project targets that tend to scare away investors.The failure of Bitcoin to start a strong recovery has given rise to several bearish targets, which extend up to $6,000 on the downside. Although anything is possible in a bear market, traders who have a long-term view could try to accumulate fundamentally strong coins in several tranches. Because a bottom will only be confirmed in hindsight and trying to time it is usually a futile exercise.Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360In a bear market, all coins do not bottom at the same time. Hence, along with keeping an eye on the broader cryptocurrency market, traders should closely follow the coins of their choice. The cryptocurrencies that lead the market out of the bear phase generally tend to do well when the next bull market begins. Let’s look at the charts of the cryptocurrencies that are trying to start an up-move in the short term.BTC/USDTBitcoin has been consolidating between $15,588 and $17,622 for the past few days. The relative strength index (RSI) has formed a bullish divergence, suggesting that the selling pressure could be reducing.BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe relief rally could face stiff resistance in the zone between the 20-day exponential moving average ($17,065) and $17,622. If the price turns down from the overhead zone, the BTC/USDT pair could extend its stay inside the range for some more time.If buyers catapult the price above the overhead zone, it will suggest that the downtrend may be ending. The 50-day simple moving average ($18,600) may act as a minor hurdle but if crossed, the up-move could reach the psychological level of $20,000.Alternatively, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below $15,588, it could signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could then drop to $13,554.BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewThe moving averages on the 4-hour chart have flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This balance could tilt in favor of the bulls if they push the price above $17,000. The pair could then rise to the overhead resistance at $17,622.Instead, if the price slips below $16,000, the pair could drop to the critical support zone between $15,588 and $15,476. A break below this zone could accelerate selling and start the next leg of the downtrend.DOGE/USDTDogecoin (DOGE) broke above the overhead resistance at $0.09 on Nov. 25 but the bears pulled the price back below the level on Nov. 26. Buyers regrouped and pushed the price above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.10 on Nov. 27.DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bears may again try to stop the recovery near $0.10 but if bulls do not allow the price to break below $0.09, the DOGE/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.12. If this level is also scaled, the pair may continue its uptrend toward $0.16.On the other hand, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that bears continue to view the rallies as a selling opportunity. The pair could then decline to $0.09. If this support gives way, the 50-day SMA ($0.08) could be challenged.DOGE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewBuyers have pushed the price above the range, which suggests the start of an up-move. The strong rally pushed the RSI into deeply overbought levels, suggesting a minor correction or consolidation in the near term.If the price turns down from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of $0.10 but rebounds off the breakout level, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive and traders are buying on dips. The bulls will then try to resume the uptrend. The target objective of the breakout from the range is $0.12.This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and re-enters the range. The pair could then drop to the 50-SMA.LTC/USDTLitecoin’s (LTC) breakout above the overhead resistance at $75 is the first indication of a potential trend change. The bears tried to pull the price back below $75 and trap the aggressive bulls but the buyers held their ground. LTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe bulls will try to propel the price above the overhead resistance at $84. If they succeed, it could signal the start of a new uptrend. The rising 20-day EMA ($67) and the RSI near the overbought zone indicate the path of least resistance is to the upside. The LTC/USDT pair could then rally toward the target objective of $104.Conversely, if the price turns down from $84, the pair could slide to the $73 to $75 support zone. If this zone breaks down, the pair could slide to the 20-day EMA. The bears will have to pull the price below this support to trap the aggressive bulls.If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again try to kick the pair above $84 and start the uptrend.LTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewThe 4-hour chart shows that the price broke and closed below the 20-EMA but the bears could not build upon this advantage. The bulls purchased this dip and nudged the price back above the 20-EMA. Both moving averages are sloping up and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating that buyers have a slight edge.There is a minor resistance at $80, but if bulls thrust the price above this level, the pair could rise to $84. The pair could then attempt a rally to $96. If bears want to invalidate this view in the short term, they will have to pull the pair below $73.Related: Bitcoin mining revenue lowest in two years, hash rate on the declineLINK/USDTChainlink (LINK) has been range-bound between $5.50 and $9.50 for the past many weeks. The strong rebound off the support at $5.50 on Nov. 21 suggests that bulls are aggressively buying the dips to this level.LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe 20-day EMA ($6.74) has started to turn up and the RSI has risen into the positive territory, indicating a minor advantage to the bulls. If the price sustains above the 50-day SMA ($7.15), the likelihood of a rally to $8.50, and thereafter to $9.50, increases.Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bears are active at higher levels. The LINK/USDT pair could then again drop toward the support at $5.50 and consolidate near it for a few more days.LINK/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewThe strong rebound off the $5.50 level is nearing the overhead resistance at $7.50. If the price turns down from this level and breaks below the 20-EMA, the pair could drop to the 50-SMA. A break below this support could keep the pair stuck between $5.50 and $7.50 for some time.Another possibility is that the price turns down from $7.50 but rebounds off the 20-EMA. The bulls will then again try to drive the price above $7.50 and start the northward march toward $8.50.APE/USDTApeCoin (APE) has been consolidating in a large range between $3 and $7.80 for the past several months. The bears tried to sink the price below the support of the range but could not sustain the lower levels. This suggests strong demand at lower levels.APE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewSustained buying pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($3.47) on Nov. 26, indicating that the bulls are on a comeback. There is a minor resistance at the 50-day SMA ($4.06), but if bulls clear this roadblock, the APE/USDT pair could rise to the downtrend line. If the price turns down from the downtrend line, the pair could decline to the 20-day EMA. If the pair rebounds off this level, it will suggest that the sentiment has shifted from selling on rallies to buying on dips. That could improve the prospects of a break above the downtrend line. The pair could then climb to $6.On the contrary, if the price turns down from the downtrend line and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the pair could again slide to the strong support at $3.APE/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingViewThe moving averages on the 4-hour chart have started to turn up and the RSI has jumped into the overbought territory, indicating that bulls have a slight edge. The recovery could face resistance at $4 but if bulls do not allow the price to dip below the moving averages, the up-move may reach the downtrend line.This positive view could be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 50-SMA. Such a move will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. The pair could then drop to $3.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Will Bitcoin hit $110K in 2023? 3 reasons to be bullish on BTC now

Bitcoin (BTC) may follow stocks on a “massive bull run” as the weekly chart delivers a unique sign of strength.The latest analysis from several well-known crypto names suggests it is time to give up the bear market narrative.Despite everyone talking about a new macro BTC price low, possibly at $12,000, new perspectives demand a rethink.Be it thanks to macro or just good old Bitcoin price cycles, there are three new reasons to flip bullish on Bitcoin in its current state near two-year lows.Stocks rally could produce $110,000 BTC priceFirst in line is a theory involving a macro market catalyst, courtesy of macro analyst, Henrik Zeberg.In a tweet from Nov. 24, Zeberg maintained that Bitcoin is still acting just like other risk assets — but notably, “not like gold.” With the FTX scandal weakening the correlation between BTC and stocks, there is nonetheless no reason to abandon the idea that it will return.For Zeberg, a rising tide lifts all boats, and a final rally throughout the risk asset field could take BTC/USD over $100,000.“Bitcoin moves as a Risk Asset (not like Gold!). When SPX explodes higher in Blow-Off Top towards 5700 – 6000 target area – Bitcoin should reach 90k – 110k,” he wrote:“Final rally before Deflationary Bust!”An accompanying chart appeared to put the rally beginning at the start of 2023.BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 annotated chart. Source: Henrik Zeberg/ TwitterIndicator bull div echoes March 2020Back to crypto-centric triggers and on-balance volume (OBV) is one of the indicators giving a taste of possible bullish times to come.According to popular trader Alan Tardigrade, now is the time to pay attention as the BTC/USD weekly chart has printed 20 weeks of bullish divergence. “This indicates the weakening of downtrend momentum,” part of accompanying Twitter comments read:“$BTC may pick up a Massive Rally.”BTC/USD annotated chart with OBV. Source: Alan Tardigrade/ TwitterA move to the upside would correspond to Bitcoin’s behavior after the March 2020 COVID-19 cross-market crash.OBV acts as a cumulative measure of buy and sell pressure by keeping a running tally of volume across a given time period. It is similar to cumulative volume delta, but encompasses more than simply bid and ask trades.Trader: RSI bull div is first for BitcoinOBV is not the only bullish divergence making waves in Bitcoin analytics circles.Related: Bitcoin exchanges see 180K BTC supply decrease amid Mt. Gox BTC salesFor Bitcoin trader and technical analyst Mags, a phenomenon playing out for the first time in Bitcoin’s history is the event to monitor going forward.Again consulting the weekly chart, Mags noted that the BTC/USD relative strength index (RSI) is now printing a bullish divergence on weekly timeframes — something never seen before, not even at previous bear market lows.“Every Bull Market Peak $BTC formed a bearish divergence on RSI followed by a bear market correction!” he explained:“This the first time ever BTC is printing a bullish divergence on WEEKLY. Probably nothing.”BTC/USD annotated chart with . Source: Mags/ TwitterThe views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Bitcoin price still due $12K dip, says trader as ETF guru backs GBTC

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed undecided at the Nov. 24 Wall Street open as one trader reinforced a $12,000 BTC price target.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBTC price “main target” for bottom $12,000-$14,000Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling $16,500 as an eerie calm continued on the market.The pair nonetheless failed to convince analysts that better times were on the way, and popular commentator Il Capo of Crypto suggested that it was only a matter of time before downside resumed.On both high timeframes (HTF) and low timeframes (LTF), the picture looked bleak.“Htf: lower lows and lower highs after breaking a monthly redistribution range. Below June’s low and at supply zone. Ltf: weak trend caused by a short squeeze (bull trap). Volume dying,” he summarized to Twitter followers on the day. “12000-14000 remains the main target for a local bottom formation.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Il Capo of Crypto/ TwitterAs Cointelegraph reported, multiple BTC price forecasts continue to call for a sub-$14,000 bear market bottom.Replying to Il Capo of Crypto, meanwhile, fellow analyst Gert van Lagen offered a potential upside resistance/ support flip at $18,100 as a bullish cue.BTC/USD rising from current levels to hold there, he wrote, would make the recent two-year low of $15,480 a “triple bottom” for 2022.“It qualifies indeed only if 18.1k gets broken,” Van Lagen stressed.Analyst: “99.9% chance” GBTC Bitcoin existsWithin crypto circles, the fate of Digital Currency Group (DCG), its subsidiary, Grayscale and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) continued to constitute a major talking point.Related: Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest adds more Bitcoin exposure as GBTC, Coinbase stock hit new lowsOne of the latest contributions came from Bloomberg Intelligence exchange-traded fund (ETF) analyst James Seyffart, who in a dedicated Twitter thread said that despite market nerves, voluntary liquidation of the $10.5 billion GBTC was “unlikely.”“That just doesn’t seem like its on the table to me,” he wrote.Acknowledging frustration at the fund’s discount to the Bitcoin spot price, Seyffart concluded that ultimately, given the material available, there was a “99.9% chance” that it held the BTC it claimed via custodian Coinbase.The GBTC spot price discount was at 39.2% as of Nov. 24, data from monitoring resource Coinglass showed.GBTC premium vs. asset holdings vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: CoinglassThe views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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BTC price holds $16K as analyst says Bitcoin fundamentals 'unchanged'

Bitcoin (BTC) lingered near $16,500 at the Nov. 23 Wall Street open as United States markets awaited Thanksgiving cues.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewGrayscale, GBTC still dominate crypto moodData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD shunning volatility after fresh two-year lows the day prior.The pair left analysts guessing the day before U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, with crypto commentators still focused on Digital Currency Group (DCG).Potential liquidity problems with DCG-owned Genesis Trading continued to agitate those already expecting further losses across Bitcoin and altcoins.As Cointelegraph reported, concerns had already spread to doubt the future of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), the largest Bitcoin institutional investment vehicle with assets under management worth over $10 billion.On Nov. 22, ex-Grayscale CEO Barry Silbert released a letter to DCG shareholders, widely shared on social media, seeking to shore up morale.“Not sure how to interpret the mixed reports around DGC, GENESIS, Grayscale, but Barry Silbert’s letter yesterday gave the crypto market some hopium,” analytics resource Material Indicators wrote in part of a Twitter thread on the day.It added that announcements on GBTC could nonetheless come after hours in a potential volatility catalyst.An accompanying chart of buy and sell pressure on the largest global exchange Binance showed strong resistance in place at just below $17,000. On the buy side, only $15,000 presented any solid support at the time of writing, with the bulk at $14,000.BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/Twitter“Never have seen sentiment this bad”Commenting on the general state of the crypto market after the FTX debacle, meanwhile, popular commentator William Clemente said that sentiment should not be confused with Bitcoin’s underlying strength.Related: Bitcoin may need $1B more on-chain losses before new BTC price bottom“Never have seen sentiment this bad,” he acknowledged. “Concerns about every centralized company in the industry, people giving up, losing hope, depression. Meanwhile the fundamentals of Bitcoin are completely unchanged. Posting this to revisit when BTC is pushing to new highs in a few years.”According to classic yardstick the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, there was nonetheless room to fall, with a score of 22/100 still more than double that which traditionally accompanies bear market bottoms.Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me“The word dead has been rapidly circulating around crypto platforms in November,” research firm Santiment added in insights of its own on Nov. 22. “As one of the more bearish sentiment words, this is a sign of traders giving up on markets rebounding. Ironically, this capitulation is historically when markets rebound.”The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Bitcoin price returns to $16K amid warning over BTC whale selling

Bitcoin (BTC) headed higher into the Nov. 22 Wall Street open after setting another two-year low.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewThanksgiving buywall appears at $12,000Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it recrossed the $16,000 mark, having set lows of $15,480 on Bitstamp.Momentum took the pair to $16,189 before consolidating, marking gains of 3.7% versus the day’s lows.Talk among analysts remained tied to the Digital Currency Group (DCG) family, including Grayscale, currently at the center of rumors over fallout from defunct exchange FTX.For monitoring resource Material Indicators, a “guard rail” bid at $12,000 could ultimately be what protected the market should a major capitulation occur over the Thanksgiving holiday period.“Over $300M in BTC bid liquidity between here and $12k,” it commented on a post by CryptoQuant contributor Maartunn. “This new $70M buy wall could be a guard rail for the holiday week, it could be related to speculation on a Grayscale announcement or something else. Regardless, we always keep an eye on new fat buy walls.”BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Maartunn/ TwitterMaartunn had uploaded a heatmap of the Binance order book, showing various active buy and sell levels.As Cointelegraph reported, meanwhile, downside targets for BTC/USD mostly focused on $14,000 or under as the week began.BTC hodlers feel the pressureOther growing concerns centered on long-term holders (LTHs) of Bitcoin.Related: Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest adds more Bitcoin exposure as GBTC, Coinbase stock hit new lowsIn its latest weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” analytics firm Glassnode warned that “non-trivial spending” from old hands was on the increase.“Their supply has declined by 84,560 BTC post-FTX, which remains one of the most significant declines in the last year,” it noted, adding that the decline was “still underway.”Likewise, the largest BTC investors, whales, were also net distributing coins to the market, this coming despite previous data showing that certain entities had already begun buying the dip.“The Whale cohort are in a mode of net distribution at present, sending between 5k and 7k in excess BTC into exchanges,” Glassnode added. “Meanwhile, the flight of coins off exchanges by almost all cohorts is at an all-time high. The whirlwind impact of the FTX collapse continues to play out, and it remains to be seen just how extensive the shake-up to investor confidence has been.”BTC supply held by LTHs annotated chart (screenshot). Source: GlassnodeThe views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Bitcoin price levels to watch as traders bet on sub-$14K BTC

Bitcoin (BTC) held steady at the Nov. 21 Wall Street open following a weekly close at levels not seen since late 2020.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hovering above $16,000 after dipping below the level overnight.Sentiment remained on a knife edge as rumors over crypto business conglomerate, Digital Currency Group (DCG) continued to swirl. Concerns focused on the $10.5 billion investment vehicle, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), with unsubstantiated talk of possible liquidity problems surfacing across social media.Coinbase, the GBTC custodian, reportedly confirmed its Bitcoin holdings — over 635,000 BTC — were safe and present on the day.GBTC was just one of multiple potential victims in the ongoing meltdown of exchange FTX and its related businesses, however, and crypto prices remained highly sensitive to the topic.Traders and analysts thus lined up to deliver short-term BTC price targets, these perhaps unsurprisingly being mostly to the downside.Anbessa: $14,600, $15,300, $17,580Popular Twitter commentator Anbessa laid out the case for BTC/USD retesting lower levels next, but also offered a reentry level should market strength return.Updating a Twitter discussion with an annotated chart, he highlighted $14,600 as a “most primed” area to increase BTC exposure.“Time has passed, and the plan hasn’t changed. The re-entry is a bit lower now (descending trendline support),” he summarized in accompanying comments.If Bitcoin were to halt its descent now, Anbessa said that a reentry point would be just below $17,600 — the site of June’s previous macro low. BTC/USD would need to flip it to support for the strategy to be valid.BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Anbessa/ TwitterThe London Crypto: $12,000, $175,000Like several others, The London Crypto, partner of exchange ByBit, believes that the ultimate bear market low lies around $12,000 for Bitcoin.He arrived at the calculation using historical drawdowns from all-time highs.For every cycle low, there is a high, however, and optimistic The London Crypto was not shy about predicting the good times returning around Bitcoin’s next block subsidy halving.“BTC has made a 77% correction in this bear market, compared to 84% in 2013 and 83% in 2017,” he noted. “Studying our previous cycles high vs lows, we can estimate the low for this bear to be the $10k-$12k range, followed by a high of $175k in 2024-2025.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: The London Crypto/ TwitterSheldon the Sniper: $12,000-$13,000His sentiment was shared by Sheldon the Sniper on the day, who gave a rough target of $12,000-$13,000.A bounce past $18,000 would trigger “offloading” of his BTC portfolio, a further tweet stated, with several downside targets crystalizing at the same time.These came in the form of various support zones at $14,013, $12,846, $11,747 and $10,594.“Drop may happen before offload zone but lets see,” he added.BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Sheldon the Sniper/ TwitterRekt Capital: Key weekly levels Analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile flagged important support and resistance zones in the form of closing prices on the weekly chart.Related: GBTC next BTC price black swan? — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekAt $16,250, BTC/USD closed its latest weekly candle over $1,000 below “key resistance” at $17,322, he warned.Uploading a summary chart, further important levels were $13,910 to the downside and $23,300 to the upside.“New BTC Weekly Close occurs below the key resistance,” he noted. “Price has performed a small rejection but no substantial downside follow-through as of yet.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ TwitterThe views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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