Značka: BTC price

Here are levels to watch as Bitcoin fights to avoid $30K July repeat

Bitcoin (BTC) could well continue falling in the short term now that $40,000 support has disappeared, fresh analysis warns.In its latest market update on Friday, trading suite Decentrader analyst Filbfilb raised concerns that the day’s $290 million in liquidations was not enough to avert a fresh tumble.Next stop $33,000 if leverage unwindsAfter reversing at $38,250 overnight, BTC/USD looked decidedly unhealthy at the time of writing, putting in fresh lows prior to the Wall Street open. Cross-crypto liquidations passed $720 million on the day, but for Filbfilb, this is historically a meager tally, and with liquidity likely concentrated below $38,000, the chances of a cascade being triggered are obvious.”Liquidations since the push below $40k have been low so far, virtually not even registering on the chart in the grand scheme of things. At the same time, funding remains relatively flat, meaning the bears are winning against margin traders who are almost all underwater,” he wrote.”We have been talking about the liquidity which likely lies below $38K for some time.”Should spot price begin to unwind leveraged positions there, the next stop for “relief” lies at $33,000. The update continued:”If the $38k level is lost with some increased momentum, we are expecting a liquidation event similar to that of 4th December 2021 and a move towards $33k in the first instance, possibly tagging the 100 Week Moving Average, at c.$31,500, but $33,000k also being a potential level for some relief.”Such an outcome would place Bitcoin on track for a copycat finish to that from July, the month in which it put in a floor just below $30,000 — near its 2021 opening price — before recovering.BTC/USD annotated chart showing liquidity in blue (screenshot). Source: DecentraderDaily close above $40,000 required to usher in reboundMeanwhile, to secure further upside, things would need to change significantly.Related: Crypto liquidations pass $700M as altcoins take a hit from Bitcoin sinking below $40KAn uptick would have to be accompanied by negative funding rates, showing that shorters were in suitable disbelief at the staying power of a rebound. The ratio of long to short positions should also decline in step, Filfilb argued.A daily close above $40,000, he concluded, would go some way to permitting such a scenario.At the time of writing, BTC/USD circled $37,900 as volatility once again increased, data from  Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed. BTC/USD 1-minute candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

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Bitcoin fundamentals diverge from BTC price dip as difficulty hits new all-time high

Bitcoin (BTC) may have tanked to six-month lows this week, but under the hood, the network is now verifiably stronger than ever.Data from on-chain monitoring resources including Glassnode and BTC.com confirms that as of Friday, the Bitcoin network difficulty is at a new all-time high.Difficulty passes 26 trillion for the first timeThe difficulty, which expresses how much miners need to work to solve the equations to process transactions on the blockchain, is arguably the most important of fundamental Bitcoin network components.The metric automatically adjusts to increase or decrease mining effort according to miner participation — the more competition among miners, the higher the difficulty.This has the effect of keeping mining stable regardless of factors such as sentiment, price or unintended incidents.After dipping in mid-2021, difficulty took the rest of the year to bounce back, with the latest automated readjustment adding 9.32% to the previous level. With that, it entered unexplored territory above 26 trillion.Commenting on the event, cryptocurrency journalist and commentator Colin Wu noted that the increase is the highest in over half a year, with BTC.com data confirming that late August saw the last adjustment of more than 10%.BTC price dip fails to break miner resolveThe difficulty thus logically followed hash rate higher, this having continually set new record highs last year. Related: Breaking ‘bear market’ in Bitcoin demand will spark next BTC price surge — AnalystsHash rate, an estimate of the processing power dedicated to the blockchain by miners, currently sits at 192 exahashes per second (EH/s), having briefly reached 218 EH/s on Jan. 10, according to MiningPoolStats. Bitcoin hash rate for week beginning Jan. 17 (screenshot). Source: MiningPoolStatsAs Cointelegraph often reports, an old mantra among age-old hodlers is that “price follows hash rate,” this trend nonetheless taking a back seat for many as fundamentals move in the opposite direction to spot price.Growing hash rate thus implies that on longer timeframes, miner optimism over the profitability of their operations remains. Calculations last week revealed their break-even point to lie at around $34,000.

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Crypto liquidations pass $700M as altcoins take a hit from Bitcoin sinking below $40K

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed lower on Friday after an overnight bout of volatility sent the largest cryptocurrency to six-month lows.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView$40,000 optimism unwindsData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reversing at $38,250 after shedding over $4,000 in hours.Circling $39,000 at the time of writing, traders were reeling from the sudden downside, which came just as BTC had hit multi-day highs, passing $43,000.Liquidations across trading platforms were thus predictably significant. For Bitcoin and altcoins combined, 24-hour position unraveling totaled $725 million, with BTC positions accounting for $292 million.The vast majority of the casualties were long positions, a sign that the area around $40,000 had attracted considerable faith as a solid support line.Crypto liquidations chart. Source: CoinglassAs Cointelegraph reported, Friday’s options expiry, involving the open interest of nearly $600 million, was considered the main culprit for sparking the volatility. By contrast, outside triggers such as Russia’s proposed blanket ban on crypto trading and mining appeared to have little to no impact.“$42.4-42.7K couldn’t continue to hold for Bitcoin, so a nuke towards the other side of the region and, most likely, continuation towards even further downwards momentum and lower lows – > happened,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe explained.The move had been long in coming, with more conservative analysts predicting a return closer to or even below $30,000 throughout January.Ether returns to established supportAltcoins, meanwhile, took a noticeably harsher hit as Bitcoin fell.Out of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, 10% drops were commonplace and rebounds limited, with only Terra (LUNA) reining in losses to under 5%.Related: Breaking ‘bear market’ in Bitcoin demand will spark next BTC price surge — AnalystsEther (ETH) fell to crucial support around $2,800, the site of an all-time high from last April, to cap weekly losses approaching 15%.ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

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Bitcoin shrugs off Russia crypto ban fears as BTC price nears $43.5K

Bitcoin (BTC) surged on the Wall Street open on Jan. 20 as news that Russia was planning to “ban” cryptocurrency failed to impact price performance.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBTC price climbs $2,500 in 24 hoursData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD adding $1,500 over several hours on Thursday, continuing the upside move, which began with a bounce off $41,000.At the time of writing, the pair was acting above $43,000, having reached highs of $43,468 on Bitstamp.That peak represented an eclipse of resistance immediately above the $43,000 mark, and investors are now watching to see whether Bitcoin can hit higher targets.”A weekly close just like this (i.e. above ~$43,100) would be enough for BTC to build on this early bullish momentum and move higher,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital argued in his latest Twitter update.””Still a few days left for the weekly close to confirm this but so far, so good.”Bitcoin trying to break out of 2+ month-long downtrend pic.twitter.com/VaQynQgT05— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) January 20, 2022Others zoomed out further, with fellow analyst William Clemente noting a possible breakout of a downtrend in place since early December.The action came despite fresh desires to clamp down on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency more broadly from Russia’s central bank, with comments calling for a blanket ban on circulation and usage as well as mining.Unlike similar announcements — and reiterations of those announcements — by China, the market was entirely unfazed by the plans, something which was not lost on pundits.”Russia is looking to repeat the mistakes of China,” analyst and podcast host Scott Melker, known as the “Wolf of All Streets,” reacted.A $34 million hack of trading platform Crypto.com likewise failed to dent enthusiasm.Altcoins seize a chance to moveOptimism also extended to altcoins as Bitcoin moved up, with Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL) and Terra (LUNA) leading the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap.Related: Breaking ‘bear market’ in Bitcoin demand will spark next BTC price surge — AnalystsETH/USD added around 3% on the day, making the chances of a $3,000 retest at least temporarily less likely.ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView”Very good movements on the markets,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized.

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Breaking 'bear market' in Bitcoin demand will spark next BTC price surge — analysts

Bitcoin (BTC) demand has been in a “bear market” for a whole year, but a surge is most likely what will spark a new price run up.That’s according to prominent economics analyst Lyn Alden, who in a Twitter debate this week bet on demand snowballing and lifting BTC price action.Back: Watch supply & demand for BTC price cuesResponding to a survey by stock-to-flow model creator PlanB, Alden said that a demand transformation is more likely to cause a BTC price boom than multiple other events favored by bulls.These include the United States approving a spot price-based exchange-traded fund (ETF), a country following El Salvador to make Bitcoin legal tender, advancements in the Lightning Network and the knock-on effect of Bitcoin’s recent Taproot upgrade.Bitcoin Twitter survey (screenshot). Source: PlanB/ TwitterInstead, Alden agreed with Blockstream CEO Adam Back that significant change will come as a result of a positive feedback loop of supply and demand.Back described the process as a “supply squeeze as ever more coins move to cold storage, continued buying, price run up then chased by reflexivity.”“Reflexivity” refers to the mutually beneficial relationship of fundamentals and market expectations once an asset starts moving which triggers stronger and stronger performance.This.— Lyn Alden (@LynAldenContact) January 20, 2022Analyzing the current state of supply against demand, however, Alden confirmed that 2021 had done little to change the status quo since the first quarter.“BTC has been in a bear market in terms of demand since Q1 2021, back when ARKK peaked,” she argued alongside data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. “However, the supply side has been unusually tight for this cycle, holding up price to a surprising degree, even touching slight new highs at one point since then. Dry kindling, no spark.”Bitcoin active supply annotated chart. Source: Lyn Alden/ Twitter’Uncertain monetary policy’ hinders trend breakAs Cointelegraph reported, Alden is not the only market commentator eyeing supply factors to add fuel to Bitcoin’s unlit fire this year.Related: Bitcoin will emerge stronger after stocks dip ‘10%–20%’ — Bloomberg analystEven on a short-term basis, a modest uptick in demand could transform the trend as exchange reserves dwindle and long-term holders control a proportion of the overall BTC supply which is near all-time highs.The result, one analyst said this week, could even be a copycat move similar to October 2020 — the springboard for BTC/USD beating its previous all-time highs from 2017.Responding to Alden, popular trader and analyst William Clemente said that he “completely agreed” with the perspective.“Supply-side looks great, holding behavior is strong,” part of his own post read. “The qualitative view of Bitcoin’s float is very much in bull’s favor, problem is lackluster of demand, likely because of uncertainty around monetary policy.”

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Bitcoin bounces at $41K as optimism increases over stocks correlation

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded strongly from $41,000 during Jan. 20 as bears hoping for a step into lower territory stayed disappointed.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD adding $1,000 after dipping to near the $41,000 mark for the first time since Jan. 11.In what could be a temporary reprieve, Bitcoin nonetheless stayed rangebound, with no noticeable attacks on resistance — behavior all too familiar for spot traders in recent days.”Good bounce from Bitcoin, but I’d be happier if we reclaim $42.4K region,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized in his latest Twitter update.In a previous post on the day, Van de Poppe highlighted $38,000 as an “ultimate” line in the sand that needs to hold should a fresh breakdown occur.”The ultimate test for Bitcoin is the area between $38-40K. Holding there would confirm buyers stepping in + bullish divergence for a reversal,” he added.Others were confident in the market’s current strength, given a similiar bounce on U.S. stocks prior to the Wall Street open.I don’t trust this #BTC dump We’re still at the golden pocket, got some bull div & SPX just pumped 40 handles off the lowThink we pump from here pic.twitter.com/O81srkoXWR— CRG (@MacroCRG) January 19, 2022Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on forecasts for Bitcoin relative to stock market performance, with well-known analyst Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence predicting that the broader correlation between crypto and equities would continue through this year.Nonetheless, another topic of interest this week focuses on a divergence in performance between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, with proponents hoping that BTC would definitively “decouple” from the index’s downward trend.Ethereum follows Bitcoin closer to major supportOn altcoins, only Terra’s LUNA token was able to stand out from sideways action on the day, up 7% and above $80.Related: Here’s why Binance Coin is 33% down from its all-time highEther (ETH), the largest altcoin by market cap, shed 1.2% in the 24 hours to the time of writing, slowly drifting back towards $3,000.ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewIn his latest YouTube update, Van de Poppe gave a target of $2,800 for a short-term floor on ETH/USD, noting that its relative strength index was apt to provide a “bullish divergence” for price in the coming days.

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What bear market? Current BTC price dip still matches previous Bitcoin cycles, says analyst

Bitcoin (BTC) has “at least one more upward impulse to come” before reaching this halving cycle’s all-time high, new research maintains.In a series of tweets about the current state of BTC price action, popular analyst TechDev argued that contrary to many opinions, there is nothing unusual about BTC/USD in 2022.Bitcoin in 2021: Nothing to see hereWith a drawdown of 40% from November’s all-time highs of $69,000 still ongoing, sentiment has likewise taken a hit — “extreme fear” still characterizes both Bitcoin and altcoin markets.For TechDev, known for his optimistic takes on the Bitcoin outlook, there is nonetheless nothing to worry about.Analyzing new wallet addresses relative to price behavior, he showed that last year’s scenario — new address numbers making lower highs while price makes higher highs — is far from unique.”In 4 out of the 6 corrections we saw divergence where price made higher highs and new addresses made lower highs,” comments on two posts read.”…To me, all 6 are running corrections, also supported by declining volume.”That low volume has previously made the headlines as part of concerns that BTC/USD may see unduly significant moves thanks to a lack of liquidity.Overall, however, price behavior relative to Fibonacci levels has stayed well within historical norms, TechDev added, and there is thus no reason to assume that another all-time high will not come before a bearish phase ensues.”Our current correction (since Feb 2021) is taking place between the same two-cycle log fibs as a running correction has always taken place, with locally declining volume and new addresses,” he concluded.Bitcoin new addresses (2 week moving average) vs. BTC/USD chart with Fibonacci levels. Source: TechDev/ TwitterA recovery in waitingAs Cointelegraph reported, interest has broadly fallen away from Bitcoin throughout the past year, specifically when it comes to retail investors.Related: Top or bottom? Traders at odds over whether Bitcoin will keep risingSeasoned traders remain primed, however, with leverage still near all-time highs and institutions tipped to begin reentering the market.In Q4, TechDev meanwhile began highlighting trends in Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) which again showed that a higher all-time high should be due.RSI remains significantly “oversold” for BTC/USD, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, something which in times past has unanimously resulted in a reversal and upside price pressure.BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) with RSI. Source: TradingView

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Bitcoin stays in tight range as analyst eyes potential 'interesting week' in BTC

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered near $43,000 on Jan. 17 as “boring” price action combined with signs that the market could be stabilizing.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewLeverage comes off all-time highsData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD staying firmly within its established trading range between $40,000 and $45,000.With few surprises expected thanks to the Wall Street holiday, traders took the opportunity to call for a level-headed approach on focus on altcoins.Bitcoin is down a few hundred dollars! Quick, someone come up with a narrative for this incredible crash and spread it around the media and twitter!(This is sarcasm, nothing is happening, Bitcoin is sideways and boring)— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) January 17, 2022Popular analyst William Clemente meanwhile highlighted Bitcoin bouncing along an ascending trendline this month, this soon to approach a turning point as part of a wedge construction.”Should be an interesting week,” he forecast.Beyond spot price, data showed that market composition still employed near all-time high leverage, this only just beginning to reduce in week two of January.Such leverage prevalence previously sparked concerns that a liquidity cascade could be made all the more real, with a significant move up or down hitting traders.”The highly increased leverage ratio of Bitcoin that since some days remains at an all-time high is showing concerns that a massive volatility increase will follow up,” commentator Vince Prince warned on the day. “Technically if Bitcoin breaks the $40,000 level this will trigger a big chunk of stop-losses.”Bitcoin leverage ratio chart. Source: CryptoQuantCardano stands out among altcoinsOn the topic of altcoins, meanwhile, some moves diverged from the flat performance seen more broadly.Related: BTC ‘likely’ to repeat Q4 2020 move — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this weekThe top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap were led by Cardano (ADA), which conspicuously bucked the sideways trend to post daily gains of almost 9% at the time of writing. This placed ADA/USD at a three-week high.”Crucially, the market psychology is working on $ADA again,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized. “Last weeks the sentiment was comparable to a graveyard and expectations were that it would go south. Now, the sentiment is switching and the hype is getting back in.”ADA/USD 1-day candle chart (Coinbase). Source: TradingViewFurther down, Litecoin (LTC) managed 4.5% gains in some brief respite for hodlers.$LTC / $BTCLitecoin’s friend intervened, told him life was worth living and said “think of your family.”Litecoin said “NOT TODAY” and stepped back from the ledge. Another bounce at strong support. A break of the blue resistance should send this flying. Not there yet. https://t.co/CvJtodHwNB pic.twitter.com/VOC5psrUhF— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) January 17, 2022

“Another bounce at strong support. A break of the blue resistance should send this flying. Not there yet,” trader, analyst and podcast host Scott Melker added about the LTC/USD pair.

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BTC 'likely' to repeat Q4 2020 move — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week facing multiple hurdles but with strong internal support — can old resistance below $50,000 finally fall?A correction event now almost in its third month is frustrating many, but conditions may soon be right for a fresh charge against opportunistic bears, an increasing number of analysts are saying.With inflation running hot and United States lawmakers set to make the Bitcoin mining debate public this week, there are plenty of potential pitfalls in store.Nonetheless, it’s beginning to feel like Bitcoin is at the point where it is capable of producing a classic surprise when the majority of the mainstream economy least expects it.Cointelegraph takes a look at five factors worth paying attention to when charting BTC price action over the coming week.Bitcoin retains key weekly close levelBitcoin looks decidedly uninterested in tackling even local resistance levels as the week begins.After a rangebound weekend with little unique price action, BTC/USD is putting in lower lows on short timeframes while avoiding key zones around $44,000.With Wall Street closed for a holiday, Monday could shape up to offer more of the same before markets provide direction.Bitcoin did, however, manage to close out the week at exactly the crucial point identified by trader and analyst Rekt Capital as useful for aiding bullish momentum.“A Weekly Close above ~$43100 (black) would be a good sign of confirmation for BTC to continue higher from here,” he wrote Sunday alongside an accompanying price chart. “By turning black into support on the Weekly, $BTC would confirm a re-entry into its ~$43100-$51800 range.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ TwitterA subsequent dip took the largest cryptocurrency lower, with $42,337 on Bitstamp the local floor for Monday at the time of writing.Also cautiously optimistic is fellow popular trader Crypto Ed, who is eyeing a potential replay of last week’s run above $44,000, something that bears subsequently quashed.”Although it’s early but this looks like the start of continuation of last weeks move. Fingers crossed!” he summarized in part of his latest Twitter update.Last week, meanwhile, Cointelegraph reported on sentiment favoring an upside breakout as an eventual outcome of the current ranging behavior.Congress to discuss “cleaning up” crypto miningThe “stage is being set” in more ways than one this week as the topic of inflation returns to haunt U.S. markets and politics alike.Amid a fresh flurry of headlines about how inflation is hitting consumers, the highest consumer price index (CPI) print in 40 years is already hitting President Joe Biden’s approval ratings.Reining in the 7% year-on-year CPI increase could see the Federal Reserve enact no fewer than four key rate hikes in 2022 alone, Goldman Sachs forecast last week. This in turn places more pressure on weary consumers.“The stage is being set in the coming weeks,” Pentoshi argued.Closer to home, this week will see U.S. lawmakers discuss the alleged environmental impact of cryptocurrency mining.With a significant chunk of the Bitcoin hash rate now coming from the U.S., any hostile policies will matter more than most when it comes to sentiment. A repeat of the China exodus from May 2021 — and its knock-on effect for hash rate and network security — will not be welcomed by anyone.Hash rate, as Cointelegraph noted, is now back at all-time highs, fully recovered from last year’s events.The Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee hearing is due to take place on Thursday, and is titled “Cleaning Up Cryptocurrency: The Energy Impacts of Blockchains.”The hearing will be livestreamed in real time on the day.Bitcoin “a bonfire covered in gasoline”Bitcoin volatility is plumbing multi-year lows — encouraging for its acceptance as a mainstream asset, but not something many expect to last.According to the Bitcoin Volatility Index, which calculates the standard deviation of daily BTC returns for the last 30 and 60 days, Bitcoin is at its least volatile since November 2020 at 2.63%.Current price movements are thus similar to before BTC/USD entered price discovery after cracking its $20,000 all-time high from 2017.For trader, entrepreneur and investor Bob Loukas, the stage is now set for a potential repeat of those events.“Remember when everyone was loading up BTC options in Sept/Oct for the super cycle. Those are probably down 80+%,” he commented, noting that derivatives traders from before the current $69,000 all-time highs are likely more than disappointed. “Vol dropping speaks to consolidating period, likely similar outcome period leading into Oct 20′ move. But think still time to grind in this BTC range.”Bitcoin Volatility Index chart. Source: Buy Bitcoin WorldwideWhile “exciting” price moves are yet to reappear after December’s drawdown, however, they are now all the more likely thanks to Bitcoin’s supply becoming increasingly inaccessible. “With illiquid supply at ATH’s for this cycle, Bitcoin is essentially a bonfire covered in gasoline,” market commentator Johal Miles argued. “The slightest whiff of demand will bring roaring flames.”As Cointelegraph reported, BTC is being ferreted away into cold storage out of the grip of speculators.Interest “quiet ever since” early 2021Amid questions over the absence of retail investors even after a 40% price drawdown, new data shows that the sector has in fact had little interest in Bitcoin for an entire year.Eyeing new entities appearing on the blockchain, Glassnode analyst TXMC Trades showed just how quiet Bitcoin has really been in terms of retail adoption since January 2021.A look at the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) of new entities coming on chain reveals that the last major surge ended at the start of Q1 last year.Since then, despite two new all-time price highs, new entity numbers have fallen and returned to standard rates normally seen after bull cycle peaks.“Bitcoin bull/bear markets have a distinct on-chain activity profile,” TXMC explained on Twitter.“…Activity wise, the last bull run ended in January 2021. It’s been quiet ever since.”Bitcoin new entities chart (30-day EMA). Source: TXMC Trades/ TwitterThe data underscores how the average investor has all but forgotten Bitcoin, even as it swept new highs and institutional activity remained strong.Interest levels from Google users adds to the trend, with search rates for “Bitcoin” worldwide at levels previously the norm in December 2020.Worldwide Google search data for “Bitcoin.” Source: Google TrendsMiners, although being far from underwater at current price levels, are also getting less income from transaction fees than at any point since late 2020 — just 1.08%.“This is an indicator that retail is not in yet… Although price is really similar to early 2021 When retail?” Twitter-based on-chain analyst Blockwise queried this weekend, presenting further Glassnode data.Bitcoin miner transaction fee revenue percentage annotated chart (7-day MA). Source: Blockwise/ TwitterBe afraid, be “extremely” afraidBitcoin’s new year “extreme fear” continues — and if on-chain behavior is anything to go by, it’s set to remain the dominant sentiment force.Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, NEAR, ATOM, FTM, FTTAccording to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment via a basket of factors to assess just how traders are likely to act at a given price point, things have rarely looked more bleak.Since late December, the Index has characterized the status quo as “extreme fear,” and so far, no price shifts have managed to alter it.The same is true this week, with Fear & Greed at 21/100 — well within the “extreme fear” bracket.Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.meSimilarly, data covering BTC moved at a profit or loss shows timidity among transactors, with precious little profiteering to be seen. Such behavior is common during price dips and was seen last year during the summer as BTC/USD fell and bottomed at around $30,000.Bitcoin realized profit/ loss ratio annotated chart. Source: On-Chain College/ Twitter“This is the real Fear & Greed Index,” popular Twitter account On-Chain College commented, uploading the data, which comes from Glassnode’s realized profit/ loss ratio indicator.

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Bitcoin miners can take fresh 20% BTC price hit before capitulating, data shows

The Bitcoin (BTC) mining business is bigger than ever at current price levels, and new data shows just how unlikely a mass miner sell-off really is.As noted by popular Twitter account @venturefounder on Jan. 14, even at $42,000, the BTC/USD trading pair is around 20% above miners’ cost price.Miner capitulation behind “worst” BTC price dipsDespite falling a full $27,000 below all-time highs, BTC is more enticing than ever for miners. Hash rate, an estimate of the total processing power dedicated to mining, reached new all-time highs this week.Those concerned that a fresh BTC price dip could pressure miners into selling, meanwhile, received fresh assurances via data covering how much BTC/USD should trade at for them to break even.Referencing the BTC production cost indicator from Charles Edwards, CEO of asset manager Capriole, venturefounder revealed that the breakeven point currently stands at $34,000.”The worst dumps Bitcoin ever had were due to miners capitulation (December 2018, March 2020), when BTC fell below production costs, it is at risk for miner capitulation,” he added in comments. “BTC was at risk for miner capitulation at $30k in May. The current production cost is $34k, 20% below current price.”Bitcoin production cost annotated chart (screenshot). Source: @venturefounder/TwitterAs such, there is no reason for miners to sell thanks to the profitability — as well as future perspective — of their operations.In a Medium post about his indicator from 2019, Edwards additionally noted that transaction fees awarded to miners give them an additional cushion against spot price incursions below production cost.”Historically, the electrical cost to produce a Bitcoin has represented a price floor in the Bitcoin market price,” another insight reads.Mining shrugs off spot price moves this yearAs Cointelegraph reported, miners are indeed voting with their wallets as BTC consolidates below $50,000.Related: Bitcoin cycle is far from over and miners are in it for the long haul: Fidelity reportRather than selling, miners en masse have been accumulating BTC more this month and last than during the highs.This speaks both to a healthy balance sheet and resolve over the future — fears of economic difficulties on the horizon are not currently weighing on the mining sector.Bitcoin hash rate chart. Source: BlockchainGoing forward, current worst-case scenario estimates among well-known analysts foresee a BTC price floor no lower than $30,000.

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Bitcoin dips below $42K as new forecast says breakout 'most probable outcome' for BTC price

Bitcoin (BTC) returned closer to $40,000 on Thursday as $44,000 resistance proved too much for bulls to overcome.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBuying another dipData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD shedding around 4% in 24 hours Friday.The pair had topped $44,450 on Bitstamp before the retracement kicked in, this seeing local lows of $41,780.While disappointing for those hoping that the worst of the pullback was over, analysts appeared unsurprised by the move, which they said could resolve via a fresh test of $40,000 support.Pretty much the path for #Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/VY0BkTXYOM— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 14, 2022Popular trader Pentoshi also appeared to get his wish, BTC “sweeping” lows below $42,000 in what he had previously identified as a prime opportunity for entry. $46,000, he added, could be next.Looming large, however, was another “death cross” chart construction on BTC/USD, a classic signal warning of bearish conditions.As Cointelegraph previously reported, a death cross occurs when the declining 50-day moving average crosses under the 200-day moving average. The feature is somewhat rare but has not always resulted in bearish behavior thereafter.BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) with 50-day, 200-day moving averages. Source: TradingViewUpside conclusion still on the cardsLooking ahead, analysts at trading suite Decentrader remained bullish on mid-term price action, acknowledging that another dip into the $30,000-$40,000 range may yet occur.Related: Top or bottom? Traders at odds over whether Bitcoin will keep risingThe two-month downtrend from early December was ripe for disruption, they argued in a market update issued Friday, and the upside was “likely” over a cascade lower.”It is our view that we may need to see some further ranging between $44,000 and potentially $38,000 before an eventual breakout. This ranging is likely to cause more pain and misery for any traders who try to impatiently front-run major moves before they are ready,” the update summarized. Encouraging, Decentrader added, was funding rates slowly becoming more consistently negative as sentiment finally flipped to expecting further downside — healthy conditions for a squeeze to the upside.”Given the current fundamentals of Bitcoin and the size and consistency of the downtrend over the past 2 months, we do believe that a move out of the range to the upside is the most probable outcome eventually.”BTC funding rates chart. Source: Coinglass

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Bitcoin sells off after $44K resistance tap, eliciting scrutiny from options traders

Bitcoin (BTC) fell more than 2% from local highs during Jan. 13 in the latest move to keep market participants guessing about what’s to come for the largest digital asset. BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView“One step at a time”Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked the pullback for BTC/USD after the pair hit its highest levels in more than a week.A trip to $44,450 on Bitstamp after the Wall Street open was followed by an hourly candle that at one point sparked losses of $1,500.A fresh sign that rangebound activity remains the order of the day for Bitcoin, bulls were disappointed after multiple calls for a fairly easy squeeze toward $46,000.For popular trader and analyst Scott Melker, “There was still no clear sign of direction.”“Still just chopping sideways,” he told Twitter followers on the day, noting that Bitcoin had swept lows with its sub-$40,000 dive earlier in the week, which was also in line with his own predictions.Fellow Twitter account Daan Crypto Trades further highlighted $45,700 as an upside target important for a resistance/support flip.“The $45.7K level is the next area of interest that’s on my radar. It will be key to flip that level for the bulls,” he wrote. “BTC looks great on LTF but still has a lot of work to do on HTF to call this a proper reversal. One step at a time.”Others were more hopeful of a paradigm shift coming in the mid-term.“Over the coming days and weeks, BTC may reveal a new market structure in which case it would be well worth paying close attention to it,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital forecast.Related: Traders say Bitcoin run to $44K may be a relief bounce, citing a repeat of December’s ‘nuke’Options traders come under the spotlightNew research also suggested the reason that $40,000 was short-lived as a dip and $44,000 conversely became an area of resistance afterward.According to crypto trading firm QCP Capital, the determining factor lies in options markets, which have now become significant enough to have a “material impact” on BTC price action.“For instance, one key reason for the lack of follow through in BTC and Ether below $40,000 and $3,000 is possibly the few large players owning strikes around those levels,” a Telegram update explained. “They naturally create support as they bid for spots to trade the delta there. And when they take profit on those option positions, the upside impact on the market is very clear as well.”“Additionally, a sharp options player who had bought 42,000 January calls started taking profit on those around the $44,000 spot level, naturally creating some resistance there.”Options open interest remains far from 2021’s all-time highs, data from Coinglass shows.Bitcoin options open interest chart. Source: Coinglass

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