Značka: BTC price

Bitcoin will see ‘long bear market’ says trader with BTC price stuck at $19K

Bitcoin (BTC) failed to reclaim recent losses into July 2 as traders prepared for stagnant price action to continue.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView”Downtrend acceleration” still in forceData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a limp BTC/USD as it chopped around the $19,000 mark into the weekend.The Wall Street trading week had finished without surprises, with United States equities practically stagnant — providing little impetus for crypto volatility. The U.S. dollar index, or DXY, fresh from a retest of twenty-year highs, ran out of steam to circle 105 points.U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewOrder book data from largest global exchange Binance showed BTC/USD caught between buy and sell liquidity close to spot price, ensuring a lack of volatility until traders maneuvered or added significantly to bids or asks.BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material IndicatorsZooming out, the outlook hardly seemed any more optimistic for bulls.For popular trading account Altcoin Sherpa, current conditions promised an extended period of uninspiring performance from Bitcoin which could last much of 2022.“Its gonna take months to chop around and accumulate once the bottom is found,” it told Twitter followers.“And the bottom might not even come for another few months from today. Hunker down for a long bear market IMO.”The sentiment was echoed by trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who argued that Bitcoin had not yet made new macro lows or started to consolidate.#BTC may still very well be in the “Downtrend Acceleration” phase of its correctionBut this phase will precede the “Multi-Month Consolidation” phaseWhich will precede the “New Macro Uptrend” phase$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 1, 2022“Deleverage yourself. Get your Bitcoin into cold storage. Sit tight,” Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at research firm Glassnode added.Will volume all-time highs echo 2018?The next week or two could prove to be this cycle’s lows, meanwhile, lending a degree of hope to those concerned that the bottom is still months away.Related: Price analysis 7/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, LEO, SHIBIn a Twitter thread on the day, economist, trader and entrepreneur Alex Krueger noted that volume denominated in BTC hit all-time highs last month.”As a general rule, trading volume is the highest when markets capitulate,” he explained.As a general rule, trading volume is the highest when markets capitulate, and such capitulation creates major bottoms.This weekly chart includes the aggregated bitcoin volume for most BTC pairs (spot & perpetuals across exchanges).Volume hit its all time high two weeks ago. pic.twitter.com/6ONLibQiL2— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) July 2, 2022

In the 2018 bear market, he added, the volume all-time high in fact occurred several weeks before the price bottom, and should this time follow the trend, July could be the site of the next.Previously, Rekt Capital had argued that buy-side volume had not been strong enough to sustain fresh price upside in the long term, while also highlighting the 2018 volume moves.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price: June close barely beats 2017 high as Coinbase Premium flips positive

Bitcoin (BTC) finished June 2022 just below $20,000 after a last-minute pump saw bulls escape 40% monthly losses.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewAnalyst: Bitcoin could stay “boring” for monthsData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD spiking higher into the monthly close, which came in at $19,924 on Bitstamp.With that, the pair narrowly avoided its first-ever monthly close below a previous halving cycle’s all-time high. On Bitstamp in November 2017, Bitcoin reached approximately $19,770.Right on time. #BTC pic.twitter.com/KxZiOF0kF8— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) June 30, 2022The success was at best touch-and-go for a market which nonetheless sealed its worst monthly losses since September 2011, these coming in at around 37.3%. It was also short lived, with BTC/USD diving toward $19,000 at the time of writing on July 1.“Steadily carving out a cycle bottom here,” Philip Swift, indicator creator and analyst at trading suite Decentrader summarized in part of Twitter comments after the close.Bitcoin’s weakness came as United States equities saw dismal results of their own. Q2 2022, commentators noted, was the worst since 1970 for the S&P 500, while the Nasdaq saw its weakest H1 since 1998.“Adjusted for inflation, 2022 first half S&P 500 down 25-26%, and Nasdaq down 34-35%, Bitcoin down 64-65%,” Big Short investor Michael J. Burry reacted. “That was multiple compression. Next up, earnings compression. So, maybe halfway there.”Burry had previously forecast that U.S. monetary policy, currently fixed on driving up interest rates to fight inflation, would be forced to change course before the end of the year.”Bottoming/accumulation signals everywhere, Major funds/lenders going bust, Worst quarter ever, Nocoiner haters dunking on us, Whole timeline saying this time is different,” William Clemente, lead insights analyst at Blockware, told Twitter followers. “If we are finding an accumulation zone, will likely still see months of boring & capitulation through time.”BTC/USD monthly returns chart. Source: CoinglassCoinbase Pro buyers step up, metric suggestsAmong institutional investors, however, there was fresh evidence that BTC was a “buy” at $20,000.Related: ‘Can’t stop, won’t stop’ — Bitcoin hodlers buy the dip at $20K BTCAs noted by on-chain anaytics platform CryptoQuant, the so-called “Coinbase Premium” returned to positive territory for the first time in two months on June 30.The Premium is the difference between the BTC price on major exchange Binance and U.S. exchange Coinbase’s institutional arm, Coinbase Pro.When positive, it means that investors are paying more on Coinbase Pro, suggesting heightened demand. The Premium stood at 0.217 as of June 30.Coinbase Premium vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: CryptoQuant”This uptick does not indicate a bull run but obviously, it tells us there are institutional buyers in this price range,” CryptoQuant’s CEO, Ki Young Ju, commented on the data.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin nears worst monthly losses since 2011 with BTC price at $19K

Bitcoin (BTC) drifted further downhill into the June 30 Wall Street open as United States equities opened with a whimper.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewU.S. dollar returns to multi-decade highsData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it abandoned $19,000 to hit its lowest in over ten days.Bulls failed to preserve either $20,000 or $19,000 at the hands of limp U.S. stock market moves, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index down 1.8% and 2.6% respectively at the time of writing.At the same time, the U.S. dollar once again staged a comeback to fix a trajectory toward twenty-year highs seen this quarter.The U.S. dollar index (DXY) was above 105.1 on the day, coming within just 0.2 points of its highest levels since 2002.U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView”The US dollar (DXY) looks set to test highs last seen in December 2002 as the short-term downtrend is broken convincingly amid risk markets’ continued crumble,” researche and trader Faisal Khan summarized on Twitter.Data on inflation meanwhile once more suggested the worst could be behind the market.Peak #inflation? The inflation rate most closely watched by Fed showed that price pressures were a bit tamer: May PCE was a bit soft, w/headline +6.3% YoY (flat vs April, below +6.4% expected) & core +4.7% (from +4.9% in Apr & below +4.8% forecast). Bonds rally w/US 10y down 7bps pic.twitter.com/FFgb6du6dS— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) June 30, 2022As Cointelegraph reported, however, central banks began to acknowledge that the low rates seen before COVID-19 may never return.Bulls’ worst month in 11 yearsWith the majority of on-chain metrics now at historic lows, price data hinted how far BTC could theoretically go in a bear market increasingly unlike the rest.Related: No flexing for Bitcoin Cash users as BCH loses 98% against BitcoinShould it close at current levels of $19,000, BTC/USD would seal monthly losses of over 40% for June 2022.That would make it the worst June ever and the heaviest monthly losses since September 2011, data from TradingView and on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass confirms. Even March 2020 and the 2018 and 2014 bear markets were less severe on monthly timeframes. 40% drops were last seen when BTC/USD traded at $8.BTC/USD monthly returns chart. Source: CoinglassThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price drops 3% to ten-day lows as Ethereum inches closer to $1K

Bitcoin (BTC) lost 3% in an hour and Ether (ETH) drifted toward $1,000 on June 30 as pessimism took control of crypto markets.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewTraders eye “sweep of lows” for BTCData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $19,224 on Bitstamp during Asian trading, its lowest since June 19.A lack of momentum on upticks combined with a failure to reclaim critical support at the 200-week moving average set the scene for fresh weakness on Bitcoin. The largest cryptocurrency thus dived to the support area defined a day prior by Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe.In fresh analysis on the day, meanwhile, traders toyed with the idea of a relief bounce towards $20,000. I expect more range trading within this prices as breakouts and breakdowns take longer to happen and prices are getting pretty extended from their averages.#BTC using this hourly 50MA for short term retraces of this downtrend, so I’d expect a reversion pretty soon to that mean. pic.twitter.com/ImYg5udA5I— pedma (@pedma7) June 30, 2022“We’re looking for a sweep of the lows and a reclaim before we consider longing because this is a very strong downtrend and we first want to see some strength,” trading platform Cryptop told Twitter followers in part of a new update.News that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had rejected a request by Grayscale to turn its Bitcoin investment instrument, the Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) into an exchange-traded fund (ETF) meanwhile did not help sentiment.Regulatory pressure had also come from the European Union, which voted to increase restrictions on crypto movements in the bloc.“The agreement extends the so-called ‘travel rule’, already existing in traditional finance, to cover transfers in crypto assets. This rule requires that information on the source of the asset and its beneficiary travels with the transaction and is stored on both sides of the transfer,” a press release about the move explained. “Crypto-assets service providers (CASPs) will be obliged to provide this information to competent authorities if an investigation is conducted into money laundering and terrorist financing.”Sentiment gauge the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 11/100, or “extreme fear,” at the time of writing.Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.meUNUS SED LEO gains as Bitfinex longs coolAltcoins predictably continued the depressed mood on the day, with ETH/USD targeting $1,000 support for the first time in ten days.Related: Price analysis 6/29: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, SHIB, LEOETH/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewOnly major exchange Bitfinex’s UNUS SED LEO (LEO) token continued to buck the trend conspicuously, gaining 3.5% on the day and extending monthly returns to above 20%.The platform had previously made the news for the exponential growth of its BTC/USD long positions, these since plateauing in the second half of June.BTC/USD longs 1-day candle chart (Bitfinex). Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin holds $20K as ECB warns inflation may never return to pre-COVID lows

Bitcoin (BTC) held steady at just above $20,000 after the June 29 Wall Street open as Europe’s chief banker admitted the world would “never” return to low inflation.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewLagarde on inflation: “I don’t think we’re ever going back”Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD looking unvolatile but precarious as it stuck in a narrow range on the day.United States equities markets were likewise calm after Asian trading had seen fresh losses. In Europe, meanwhile, comments from central bankers set the macro tone.In particular, Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank (ECB), appeared to state that inflation would remain high indefinitely.”I don’t think we’re going back to that period of low inflation,” she said during a press conference at the ongoing ECB Forum event in Sintra, Portugal.Joining her was Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, who sounded similarly downbeat on the prognosis while promising to not rest until inflation matched the bank’s 2% target.”That is our aim, that is our intention; we think there are various pathways to achieve that, to achieve the path back to 2% inflation while sustaining a strong labor market. We believe we can do that, that’s our aim; there’s no guarantee that we can do that,” he said.Bitcoin bulls defend 2017 topBitcoin was unresponsive to the comments, which preceded fresh U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data by around two weeks.For Bitcoin analysts, meanwhile, the focus was on the June monthly close.On-chain analytics resource Material Indicators eyed a breakout now due “very soon” as the monthly candle was all but doomed to disappoint.”Bulls are defending the 2017 Top, but with one day to go it’s going to be almost impossible to print a green Monthly candle,” it told Twitter followers.”Still a chance for green on the Weekly. Expecting volatility. One way or another, Bitcoin is going to breakout or breakdown very soon.”An accompanying chart showing the order book of major exchange Binance confirmed the buy and sell interest on BTC/USD focusing right at current prices.BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ TwitterAs Cointelegraph reported, June 2022 was already on track to be the worst month since 2018.#Bitcoin resting on support here (also marked in tweets previous days), but still looking tricky. Needs more confirmation (for instance breaking $20.2K) if we want to look upwards.If support doesn’t hold, $19.3K area next. pic.twitter.com/N6atAXrOZ4— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 29, 2022Prices continues to roast corporate investorsElsewhere, MicroStrategy upped its Bitcoin corporate treasury with a fresh 480 BTC purchase, a moved lauded by commentators.Related: No flexing for Bitcoin Cash users as BCH loses 98% against BitcoinSmaller compared to some buy-ins, MicroStrategy and CEO Michael Saylor were running conspicuously against claims that the company may get liquidated on a $205 million loan taken out for BTC acquisition.”Although this recent buy of 480 BTC from Saylor may be relatively small, I think it sends a message more than anything,” William Clemente, lead insights analyst at Blockware, reacted. “Despite all the criticism and claims he’s ‘getting liquidated’ from bears, he’s not going anywhere and is sticking to his long term allocation strategy.”A look at monitoring resource Bitcoin Treasuries nonetheless showed MicroStrategy down a combined $1.4 billion on its inventory, with number two placed Tesla down almost 50%.Payment network Square also remained down $60 million on its $220 million allocation.Major publicly traded companies’ BTC treasury data (screenshot). Source: Bitcoin TreasuriesThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price limps under $20K as Asia extends global stocks weakness

Bitcoin (BTC) returned under $20,000 on June 29 as analysts stayed hopeful of a trip higher.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewTraders looks to $19,500 for supportData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it crossed below the $20,000 mark for the first time in nearly a week in Asian trading hours.The weakness followed rangebound behavior near $21,000, this characterizing a market still in tune with moves in global equities.The S&P 500 had finished its previous session down 2%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 3%. On the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was likewise 2.1% lower, while China’s Shanghai Composite Index traded down 1.4%.With few bullish cues coming from macro, Bitcoin thus had little stopping it from revisiting the lower end of a range in place for several weeks.“Bitcoin is giving that correction, was anticipating a potential low at $20.3K,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe wrote in part of his latest Bitcoin-focused Twitter update. “We get $20.1K as that’s the second important one… Would like to see it hold here and see additional confirmation on LTF. If it doesn’t, $19.3-19.5K next for support.”Zooming out, other sources were still optimistic about the potential for an assault on resistance further up.For on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators, this could still come in the form of challenging the 200-week moving average, a key bear market support level, which had begun to function as resistance in June.Trend Precognition is flashing a pretty strong Long signal on the #BTC Weekly chart. Signal won’t print until the W candle closes, but indicates that we could see a run at the 200 WMA this week. Happy to test the lows first. For me, sub $17.5k invalidates. #NFA pic.twitter.com/hvs1as44qG— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) June 28, 2022Stocks continue downhillFocusing on macro, commentators argued that with little certainty about economic strength available, risk assets such as crypto would continue to suffer on longer timeframes.Related: 3 charts showing this Bitcoin price drop is unlike summer 2021The mood followed a prediction from Big Short investor Michael J. Burry that the U.S. Federal Reserve would abandon its inflation-busting quantitative tightening (QT) policy in 2022 and return to more accommodative conditions.“Deflationary pulses from this- – > disinflation in CPI later this year — > Fed reverses itself on rates and QT — > Cycles,” part of a tweet published June 27 reads.Only a clear boon for risk assets would therefore cut Bitcoin and altcoins some slack, popular Twitter account TXMC Trades responded, this perspective echoing views of various commentators including former BitMEX CEO, Arthur Hayes.Despite the dreams of decouploors, #Bitcoin is unlikely to grow in a sustained way unless the economy also shows significant improvement, as they are undeniably linked.With regional data slipping toward contraction, the near term path remains unattractive. https://t.co/qpuPsYm07P pic.twitter.com/WT3TjKHiKD— TXMC (@TXMCtrades) June 28, 2022

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Different this time? 'Almost all' Bitcoin metrics are now hinting at a price bottom

Bitcoin (BTC) played wait-and-see with traders on June 28 as Wall Street opened to flat performance.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBollinger eyes “logical place” for Bitcoin bottomData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling $21,000 on Bitstamp, refusing to commit to a firm trend.The pair nonetheless avoided fresh signs of weakness, leading Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe to believe that an attack on important levels — notably the 200-week moving average near $22,400 — could be next. #Bitcoin bounced upwards after sweeping the lows at $20.6K.Honestly, was expecting a further correction towards $20.3K. Still long on my positions on $FTM, $ADA, $AVAX & $ETH, as I’m still assuming we’ll see continuation towards $22.4K and possibly $23.1K. pic.twitter.com/dbwYQiuZZL— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 28, 2022″In the past, Bitcoin has been a steal under its realized price, i.e., aggregate cost basis of all coins in supply. The realized price is currently sitting at around $22,500,” popular trading account Game of Trades added.While few expected a clear bullish trend to emerge, long-term perspectives also placed importance on current price levels.Among them was John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger bands volatility indicator, who in a fresh take on BTC/USD flagged the culmination of a trend years in the making. The next move, he suggested, could well be higher after a “picture perfect” double top pattern on Bitcoin in 2021.Picture perfect double (M-type) top in BTCUSD on the monthly chart complete with confirmation by BandWidth and %b leads to a tag of the lower Bollinger Band. No sign of one yet, but this would be a logical place to put in a bottom.https://t.co/KsDyQsCO1F— John Bollinger (@bbands) June 27, 2022

Research: “Almost all” Bitcoin metrics at all-time lowsFurther analysis of whether the bottom is in for Bitcoin came from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode as the week began.Related: 3 charts showing this Bitcoin price drop is unlike summer 2021In its latest weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” Glassnode dissected a raft of on-chain metrics in various stages of signaling a bottom formation.In an unprecedented macro environment, however, nothing was certain.”Within the current macroeconomic framework, all models and historical precedents are likely to be put to the test,” it concluded. “Based on the current positioning of Bitcoin prices relative to historical floor models, the market is already at an extremely improbable level, with only 0.2% of trading days being in similar circumstances.”It noted that those who had bought BTC in 2020 and 2021 had provided the driving force behind recent selling.”Almost all macro indicators for Bitcoin, ranging from technical to on-chain, are at all-time lows, coincident with bear market floor formation in previous cycles. Many are trading at levels with just single-digit percentage points of prior history at similar levels,” the newsletter added.Sentiment was no different on the day, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 10/100 or “extreme fear,” also constituting a classic reversal level in bear markets gone by.Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.meThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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3 charts showing this Bitcoin price drop is unlike summer 2021

Bitcoin (BTC) bear markets come in many shapes and sizes, but this one has given many reason to panic.BTC has been described as facing “a bear of historic proportions” in 2022, but just one year ago, a similar feeling of doom swept crypto markets as Bitcoin saw a 50% drawdown in weeks.Beyond price, however, 2022 on-chain data looks wildly different. Cointelegraph takes a look at three key metrics demonstrating how this Bitcoin bear market is not like the last.Hash rateEveryone remembers the Bitcoin miner exodus from China, which effectively banned the practice in one of its most prolific areas.While the extent of the ban has since come under suspicion, the move at the time saw huge numbers of network participants relocate — mostly to the United States — in a matter of weeks. As a result, Bitcoin’s network hash rate — the computing power dedicated to mining — roughly halved. At the time, this was unprecedented, while miners felt that they had no choice but at least temporarily to cease operations.This time around, it is not red tape but simple math threatening miners. The BTC price dip to 19-month lows has put mounting pressure on the profitability of mining operations. As Cointelegraph reported, however, a mass capitulation event may not necessarily occur, even at current levels, amid suggestions that miners who needed to sell BTC inventory have already done so. Hash rate supports that thesis, having dipped by a maximum of around 20% from all-time highs before rebounding, according to estimates from data resource MiningPoolStats.Bitcoin estimated hash rate chart (screenshot). Source: MiningPoolStatsActive addressesThe July 2021 drawdown was accompanied by a slowdown in Bitcoin network activity. Active addresses, as measured by on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, saw a noticeable drop through June last year before rebounding in line with price in Q3.This time, no such dip has taken place, indicating that the market is more occupied in moving their BTC. This has a number of implications — hodlers may have become sellers due to low prices; traders may be seeking to profit from volatility; others may be looking to “buy the dip.”It is worth noting, however, that overall on-chain volume remains low, and that means that buy-side support is likely insufficient to end the downward price trend, analysts argue.Bitcoin active addresses chart. Source: CryptoQuantExchange reservesFinally, and despite the broadly lower volumes mentioned above, Bitcoin exchanges are losing coins around $20,000 — and fast.Related: These 3 metrics suggest the Bitcoin price crash is not overNormally, price collapses trigger inflows to exchanges as panicking traders prepare to sell or short. This time, it would appear, really is different in that respect, as exchange users are removing coins from accounts, not loading up.21 major exchanges tracked by CryptoQuant currently have a balance of 2.419 million BTC, down from 2.544 million at the start of Q2. Exchange reserves last year conversely rose throughout the Q2 downtrend, only resuming their own drop as BTC/USD recovered.Bitcoin exchange reserves chart. Source: CryptoQuantThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Terra's LUNA2 skyrockets 70% in nine days despite persistent sell-off risks

The price of Terra (LUNA2) has recovered sharply nine days after falling to its historic lows of $1.62. On June 27, LUNA2’s rate reached $2.77 per token, thus chalking up a 70% recovery when measured from the said low. Still, the token traded 77.35% lower than its record high of $12.24, set on May 30.LUNA2’s recovery mirrored similar retracement moves elsewhere in the crypto industry with top crypto assets Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) rising by approximately 25% and 45% in the same period.LUNA2/USD four-hour price chart versus BTC/USD. Source: TradingViewLUNA2 price rally could trap bullsThe recent bout of buying in the LUNA2 market could trap bulls, given it has come as a part of a broader correction trend.In detail, LUNA2 appears to be forming a “bear flag” pattern, a bearish continuation setup that appears as the price consolidates upward inside a parallel ascending channel after undergoing a large move downside.Bear Flags resolve after the price breaks below the channel’s lower trendline. As a rule of technical analysis, their breakdown takes the price to the level at a length equal to the size of the previous downside move (called “flagpole”), as shown in the chart below.LUNA2/USD daily price chart featuring ‘bull flag’ setup. Source: TradingViewLUNA2, now trading near its Bear Flag’s upper trendline (~$2.40), could undergo an imminent pullback toward the pattern’s lower trendline near $2. If accompanied by an increase in volume, an extended price correction would put LUNA2 at risk of crashing to $1.30, down almost 50% from June 2’s price. LUNA2 is riskyLUNA’s depressive technical outlook also takes cues from its controversial history.Notably, LUNA2 came to existence in late May as a means to compensate investors who had suffered losses during the collapse of Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin, now called TerraClassic USD (USTC).Meanwhile, the almost-worthless old version of LUNA2, named LUNA, started trading as an independent token under the revamped brand called “Terra Classic (LUNAC).”LUNA2 opened across major exchanges with a 483% spike to $12.24, only to give up all the gains in a massive correction move later. Mati Greenspan, the founder of crypto research firm Quantum Economics, noted that nobody in their right mind would want to invest in LUNA2 after the LUNAC collapse.LUNA/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingViewThat leaves LUNA2 in the hands of hardcore holders who want to recoup their Terra losses entirely and speculators who want to place excessively leveraged bets on its day-to-day volatile price moves. Related: Bitcoin price dips under $21K while exchanges see record outflow trendInterestingly, such speculations are also leading LUNAC and USTC’s market cap higher.LUNAC and USTC market cap. Source: CoinMarketCapThe market capitalization of LUNAC, despite being dead in theory, has risen by 75% to $594 million on June 27, after reaching as low as $339 million on June 12. Similarly, USTC’s market valuation has rallied from $13 million to $96 million in the same period.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price dips under $21K while exchanges see record outflow trend

Bitcoin (BTC) sold off into the June 27 Wall Street open as United States equities fell.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView$25,000 eyed as bulls’ line in the sandData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD following stock markets downhill as the last week of June began.At the time of writing, the pair traded below $21,000, having hit its lowest in three days after a broadly stable weekend.Amid a general lack of bullish conviction among traders, expectations for a further drop stayed present, with Bitcoin still below the crucial 200-week moving average (WMA) at $22,430.”Bitcoin says NO against $21K support. That’s all fine. We have got levels structured,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe wrote in a Twitter debate on the day.A further post argued that further lows would come to entice traders to open long positions. Support lay at $20,325 and around $20,100, and should neither hold, a dip toward $19,000 could result.Fellow trader and analyst Credible Crypto, meanwhile, laid down the requirements to be sure that this month’s $17,600 lows would not be challenged. For him, a trip to the low $30,000 range would need to ensue.”If we manage to reclaim $25,000, push up to the low $30,000s — $28, $29, $30,000 — at that point, I don’t think we’re going to see new lows,” he said in a video update.”So if we’re going to see new lows, I’d expect it to happen before we reclaim $25,000.”Bitcoin remained on track to close its first month ever under the 200WMA on the day, singling out the current bear market among previous ones.BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 200WMA. Source: TradingViewBTC drains from exchange walletsMeanwhile, evidence of investors buying the dip continued to mount.Related: Google users think BTC is dead — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekAfter whales made the headlines for adding coins around $20,000, exchanges more broadly saw major decreases in BTC supplies in recent days.According to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, June 26 saw the largest cumulative change in BTC not kept on exchanges.The 30-day average change in supply kept on exchanges was down 153,849 BTC as funds moved elsewhere.Bitcoin exchange net position change chart. Source: GlassnodeAs Cointelegraph reported, metrics such as the Mayer Multiple continue to show the potential for outsized gains by buying BTC at current levels.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Google users think BTC is dead — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week above $20,000 but heading for a new bearish record as a key support level remains out of reach.After a calm weekend punctuated by a brief spike to near $22,000, BTC/USD is back near the Friday closing price of CME futures markets.A “round trip” thus allows traders to pick up where they left off at the end of last week’s final Wall Street trading session, but what could lie in store in the coming days?A familiar cocktail of macro threats and ongoing bearish tendencies make the current climate far from ideal for the average hodler. Despite seeing some relief last week, crypto markets continue to bear the brunt of cold feet, which have defined macro sentiment increasingly throughout 2022.With the June monthly close fast approaching, meanwhile, Bitcoin faces a few days of reckoning amid what could be its worst monthly performance since 2018.Cointelegraph takes a look at five potential market triggers for the week ahead as inflation rages and crypto struggles to regain its footing.Traders expect July to provide BTC price “catalysts”“Apathetic” is a good word to describe the general sense of resignation among Bitcoin traders this week.While the weekend spared the average hodler more unwelcome surprises, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, the fact remains that BTC/USD is far from where anyone wants it to be — even in a bear market.With the key 200-week moving average (WMA) out of reach, there is precious little bullish sentiment out there, as evidenced by the “extreme fear” of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index still firmly in control.Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me“BTC will capitulate in the next 6 months & hit cycle bottom (anywhere between $14-21k), then chop around in $28-40k in most of 2023 and be at ~$40k again by next halving,” Venturefounder, contributing analyst at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, summarized in part of a Twitter update on June 27.Venturefounder’s thesis is indicative of a broader belief that the bottom is not yet in for Bitcoin, and that any relief moves are exactly that — distractions on the way to lower levels which suck capital out of market newbies and weak hands.Expectations are that the first week of July could provide the next major bout of volatility across crypto and risk assets.“Not much happening overnight on Bitcoin but am expecting quite a slow week due to the lack of catalysts currently,” popular trader Crypto Tony confirmed. “July will be more of an action packed month for volatility due to the catalysts upcoming.”For Arthur Hayes, former CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, the first week of next month is a period where macro stars will align to punish hodlers once again. In a blog post earlier in June, he flagged the United States Federal Reserve’s outsized rate hike and balance sheet reduction as providing the key backdrop to a risk asset nightmare.“By June 30 (second quarter end), the Fed will have enacted a 75bps rate hike and begun shrinking its balance sheet. July 4 falls on a Monday, and is a federal and banking holiday. This is the perfect setup for yet another mega crypto dump,” Hayes warned.A “wild ride to the downside” thus could be just days away.As Cointelegraph reported, popular consensus for a genuine price bottom focuses on the area between $14,000 and $16,000, but $11,000 has also made an appearance, this corresponding to an 84.5% drawdown versus Bitcoin’s most recent all-time high.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewHow normal is this bear?While some panic sell their BTC, analysts are striving to show that so far, there is nothing unusual about the scope of the Bitcoin bear market.Among them is on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which in its recent research piece, “A Bear of Historic Proportions,” called for calm on sub-$20,000 BTC.“Bear market lows have historically been established with BTC drawdowns of -75% to -84% from the ATH, and taking a duration of 260-days in 2019-20, to 410-days in 2015,” it wrote. “With the current drawdown reaching -73.3% below the Nov-2021 ATH, and taking a duration between 227-days and 435-days, this bear market is now firmly within historical norms and magnitude.”What singles out the current climate is not Bitcoin itself, but investors’ reactions to price changes. Despite losses remaining within historical norms, sales of BTC at a loss have eclipsed previous records.“The recent price collapse through to the $20k region was punctuated with the largest daily USD denominated realized loss in history,” Glassnode noted. “Investors collectively locked in a loss of -$4.234B in a single day, which is a 22.5% increase from the previous record of $3.457B set in mid-2021.”In BTC terms, the losses amount to the third-largest in Bitcoin’s history.Bitcoin net realized profit/loss annotated chart (screenshot). Source: GlassnodeBTC risks first monthly close below 200WMAWith three days left before the June monthly close, things are either looking worrying or “interesting” for Bitcoin depending on one’s perspective.With the bear market in full swing, BTC/USD remains below a key trendline that has supported it during previous macro lows. The 200-week moving average (WMA), which has never decreased in value, currently sits at $22,430.In previous bear markets, as Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin has retained the 200WMA as support while wicking below it to put in floor prices. This time, however, the level is flipping to resistance as bulls’ attempts to follow historical norms repeatedly fail. As such, the end of the month could be “interesting,” says Stock-to-Flow price model creator PlanB, as it would mark the first monthly close under the 200WMA ever.An accompanying chart uploaded on June 26 shows Bitcoin’s relationship to the 200WMA versus the distance from its block halving events, these delineating the four-year cycles, which contain the bear market paradigms previously referred to.This is getting interesting! If BTC does not close June above 200WMA ($22K) that would be the first monthly close below 200WMA ever. 4 days to go .. pic.twitter.com/YtshVcIpks— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 26, 2022Meanwhile, Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, noted further unusual bearish traits currently characterizing the BTC price.In addition to being under the 200WMA, he notes, BTC/USD Is also below its realized price and deep in the “buy” zone of the Mayer Multiple metric. As Cointelegraph recently reported, the Mayer Multiple shows how far the price below its 200-day moving average and thus how likely a buy at a specific level would be to generate asymmetrical returns.“Such events in the past have only occurred for 13 out of 4,360, representing 0.2% of all trading days,” Checkmate wrote in part of a tweet.#Bitcoin is trading below the following models which have coalesced around bear market floors in the past:200W moving averageRealized Price0.6 x Mayer MultipleSuch events in the past have only occurred for 13 out of 4,360, representing 0.2% of all trading days. pic.twitter.com/DtWGMrL2U2— _Checkɱate ⚡ (@_Checkmatey_) June 26, 2022

Bitcoin dominance dives from multi-month highIt was only recently that altcoins were suffering even more than Bitcoin due to upheaval from multiple major projects including Terra and Celsius.Now, however, the tables are turning — Bitcoin dominance has reversed after spiking this year, leading to suggestions that altcoins could be the place to be in the short term.“Bitcoin dominance is moving down strongly. The advantage lies with altcoins right now,” popular Twitter account BTCfuel summarized.After reaching an 11-month high of 48.36% on June 11, Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market cap has declined to 43.46% at the time of writing — a noticeable shift in under three weeks.For veteran trader Peter Brandt, Bitcoin’s relative strength versus alts could have more significance than meets the eye for bulls.“This chart could be the big ‘tell,’” he argued about the market cap dominance data. “A decisive close back above 50% would be huge positive.”Others are meanwhile confident that despite the latest reversal, it is not altcoins’ time to shine in any meaningful way going forward.According to Venturefounder, holding BTC is still an investor’s best bet.#Bitcoin dominance peaked at 48% and started going down again: but imo it’s definitely NOT the beginning of #ALTSEASON. Rest assured in a cycle-end bearmarket #BTC shall remain the best bet over #altcoinsSuch event has happened multiple times during the 2018 cycle as well. pic.twitter.com/SJQolLNvy6— venturef◎undΞr (@venturefounder) June 27, 2022

“Normal bear market narrative altcoins bleed more heavily Bitcoin,” trading suite Decentrader added in separate comments on the latest dominance action. “However, for the last 2 weeks altcoins (generally) have out performed. So either: ‘This time is different’ or ‘This won’t last.’ Dominance remains in 40-48% range.”Bitcoin dominance 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingViewBitcoin goes mainstream again — for the wrong reasonsBitcoin is more popular among mainstream internet users than at any time in over a year — but is it something worth celebrating?Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, UNI, XLM, THETA, HNTData from Google Trends confirms that more people have been googling “Bitcoin” this month than at any point since May 2021.Worldwide Google search data for “Bitcoin.” Source: Google TrendsThen, as now, however, BTC price action was targeting long-term lows, rather than highs, indicating that it is bearish events that trigger mainstream interest.Last November’s all-time high, by comparison, looks like a blip on the radar when it comes to search interest.Not a capitulation pic.twitter.com/rmp7ukK1HU— JACKIS (@i_am_jackis) June 26, 2022

As such, activity for phrases such as “Bitcoin is dead” has spiked, this noted by social media users as a possible sign that the market is in a “capitulation” phase.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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BTC price tops 10-day highs as Bitcoin whale demand sees 'huge spike'

Bitcoin (BTC) made the most of weekend volatility on June 26 as a squeeze saw BTC/USD reach its highest in over a week.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView”Unusual whale activity” flaggedData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed the largest cryptocurrency as it hit $21,868 on Bitstamp.Just hours from the weekly close, a reversal then set in under $21,500, Bitcoin still in line to seal its first “green” weekly candle since May.The event followed warnings that volatile conditions both up and down could return during low-liquidity weekend trading. On-chain data nonetheless fixed what appeared to be buying by Bitcoin’s largest-volume investor cohort prior to the uptick.”Unusual whale activity detected in Bitcoin,” popular analytics resource Game of Trades observed. “The supply held by entities with balance 1k-10k BTC just saw a huge spike in demand. Let’s watch if the trend confirms.”An accompanying chart from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode showed shifting up markedly from around the time BTC/USD hit lows of $17,600 this month.BTC supply held by entities with 1,000-10,000 BTC annotated chart. Source: Games of Trades/ TwitterAs Cointelegraph reported, whales had eagerly purchased BTC below $20,000, forming new support clusters in the process.CME futures gap looms largeFor others, however, conservative views on price action remained the norm.Related: Bitcoin gives ‘encouraging signs’ — Watch these BTC price levels nextCointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe eyed the need to crack $21,600 definitively in order to secure the chances of further upside. Additionally, last week’s closing price of $21,100 on CME Group’s Bitcoin futures could provide a short-term target.”Standard weekend fake-outs happening and probably ending at CME close at $21.1K for Bitcoin,” he forecast on the day. “No clear breakout above $21.6K at this point, yet.”CME Bitcoin futures 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewThe monthly close was still on course to cement Bitcoin’s worst June on record with monthly losses of almost 33%. Along with May 2021, this would also be the worst-performing month since before the 2018 bear market bottom, data from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass confirms.Bitcoin monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: CoinglassThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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