Značka: BTC price analysis

This Bitcoin price metric just hit 'oversold' for only the 7th time in 8 years

A Bitcoin (BTC) price metric which made BTC “look seriously cheap” at $56,000 is now in rare oversold territory.In a tweet on Dec. 6, Philip Swift, Philip Swift, creator of analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin, returned to potentially bullish signals coming from Bitcoin’s Advanced NVT Signal.Advanced NVT deflates in Bitcoin price routAdvanced NVT calculates whether Bitcoin is overbought or oversold at a certain price point using market capitalization and network volume.In late November, when BTC/USD had already fallen to $56,000, Swift suggested that a bounce was due.The metric subsequently continued to fall in line with spot price thanks to last Friday’s liquidation cascade. A possible plus, however, lies in the return of “oversold” cues from NVT — something which has only occurred six times since 2015.“A lot of fear in the market currently, which makes me bullish. Lots of indicators suggest we are near a bottom,” he said.“Advanced NVT Signal looks at price relative to onchain transactions. It has only been this oversold a few times before, each time resulting in a strong bounce.”Bitcoin advanced NVT signal annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/ TwitterThe strength of such a bounce nonetheless may have already faded, with Bitcoin reversing after around 6% overnight gains to $51,500 on Bitstamp.Trader to BTC buyers: Wait a week to “avoid chop”At press time, $51,000 formed a focus, amid heavy indications from commentators that fresh downside could soon enter.Related: Bitcoin could ‘drive people nuts’ for months with $53K BTC price ceiling — analyst“Buy in low to mid 40’s. Not get trapped,” trader and analyst Pentoshi advised Twitter followers.I can see $BTC short term trading back towards 52k but I think if you wait a few days/week you’ll avoid chop. Buy in low to mid 40’s. Not get trapped. Don’t see a reason to take new longs here atm. Going to wait for a new trade to come to me pic.twitter.com/NS7J0PainD— Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) December 6, 2021As Cointelegraph reported Monday, meanwhile, there are plenty of reasons to separate spot price action from underlying strength in Bitcoin.Among them is all-time high hash rate, along with a broad lack of selling — smaller hodlers, by contrast, have been adding to their positions throughout the past week.Only whales appear to be hedging their bets, as evidenced by exchange flow data.

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Bitcoin could 'drive people nuts' for months with $53K BTC price ceiling — analyst

Bitcoin (BTC) may spend “months” ranging between recent $42,000 lows and $53,000 and cause panic in the process, popular analysts warned on Dec. 6.Discussing the BTC price outlook on Twitter, Scott Melker, known as the Wolf of All Streets, said that ranging behavior could last well into 2022.Bitcoin price bottoms could sink still deeperAfter failing to reclaim even $50,000 after last week’s crash, BTC/USD is spawning bearish sentiment this week.As sentiment sits deep within in the “extreme fear” zone, Melker joined those steering clear of the sky-high short-term price predictions that were previously ubiquitous.”My general view. >53K again resumes the bullish case. 42K again puts 28K back in play,” he summarized. “Everything between the two numbers now is ranging chop that will drive traders into a panic. People will be extremely bullish at 53K and bearish at 42K if either is reached.”A further post put the timeframe for such price action to play out at “a few months.””December has a high probability of range-bound chop, the ideal time to take some time off from the charts, make a few well-thought-through trades, and recharge for next year,” filbfilb, co-founder of trading platform Decentrader, continued.Their comments mimic those of fellow popular trader Pentoshi, who made waves on Dec. 6 while acknowledging that Bitcoin could still dip to $30,000.Wouldn’t be surprised if this happens for $btc. It’s a real possibility. I would be prepared for it https://t.co/Qw4XggiDdV— Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) December 6, 2021That would place BTC/USD de facto back at its 2021 starting position and over 50% down against the year’s all-time highs.”Trading at a decent discount”Dec. 6’s Wall Street open, meanwhile, had barely any impact on Bitcoin, markets remaining comparatively steady as stocks saw a light move higher.Related: BTC sentiment ‘comparable to a funeral’ — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this weekAs critics took aim at Bitcoin’s alleged lack of ability to act as a store of value, proponents looked for clues as to whether the market was fairly valued after the sell-off.For analyst Willy Woo, the on-chain data said it all.”We’re currently trading at a decent discount,” he revealed, highlighting the Bitcoin Supply Shock Valuation (SSV) metric.SSV looks at the last time on-chain demand matched current levels, with the implication being that prices should be higher under current circumstances.This model does a look back on previous times that #bitcoin had similar on-chain demand.We’re currently trading at a decent discount.It’s a model for investors, not traders who can easily be liquidated well before the model plays out. pic.twitter.com/w9byxBiX6M— Willy Woo (@woonomic) December 6, 2021

Woo had previously noted that the most recent dip was accompanied by smallscale investors increasing their BTC exposure.

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