Autor William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) could reach its new “macro bottom” by September, as price action continues to surprise traders.Key points:Bitcoin may “front run” exchange order-book liquidity to produce a bear-market low between $50,000 and $60,000.A trader sees “complete disbelief” if price reverses with only a partial liquidity grab.”Aggressive” shorting from Binance traders returns on low time frames.BTC price bottom could spark “complete disbelief”New analysis from pseudonymous trader Killa on Friday focuses on a sub-$60,000 liquidity grab next quarter.Crypto exchange order-book liquidity is key to short-term price moves, as large-volume traders coerce the market into wiping nearby positions, causing volatility.Killa, however, is looking at the longer-term picture — many expect BTC/USD to drop as low as $50,000 to take liquidity before bouncing, data shows.“At some point, $BTC is going to front run major HTF liquidity,” he told followers in a post on X. “Just like the market front ran the 140K liquidity above, it can do the exact same thing on the downside, leaving many in complete disbelief.”Bitcoin order-book liquidity data. Source: Killa/XAn accompanying chart from CoinGlass shows the main area of interest between $50,000 and $60,000. If it gets taken, Killa argues, it would lay the foundation for the end of the bear market.“I’m not saying we won’t sweep below 60K, but it’s something worth considering. Markets have a habit of front running the levels everyone is focused on,” they continued. “Because if this particular liquidity below 60K gets grabbed, there’s a very good chance the next major pool that forms between July and September never gets filled, marking the macro bottom.”Binance BTC shorts become “aggressive”As Cointelegraph reported, others have questioned the staying power of current support around the $60,000 mark.Related: Bitcoin market cap rebound to take ‘5-10 years’ after dropping 10 places since mid-2025Traders are poised for a snap collapse, with Daan Crypto Trades warning that the situation could “get ugly” if nearby trend lines fail to hold.“Bulls need to hold that $61K-$62K region otherwise things get ugly real quick I think. But for now, still at support,” he summarized on X.BTC/USD perpetual swap contract four-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/XOn Thursday, commentator Exitpump flagged “aggressive” short positioning by traders on Binance, saying that the short-term price outlooks “looks bearish” as a result.BTC/USD 10-minute chart with order-book data (Binance). Source: Exitpump/X

Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 10 places by market capitalization in a year as the bear market heavily punishes crypto.Key points:Bitcoin has dropped to 15th place in the world’s largest assets by market cap.Bitcoin’s market cap is down 50% from its all-time highs in October last year.Market cap could take a decade to rebound to its position from April 2025.Bitcoin market cap may be out of the top five until 2036Data from monitoring resource Companies Market Cap now places BTC as the 15th largest macro asset.The largest cryptocurrency currently has a market cap of $1.287 trillion — around 25% below its position a year ago, data from TradingView confirms. Versus its all-time high in October last year, Bitcoin’s market cap is down 50%.Bitcoin market cap one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe performance means that within the context of global assets, BTC has slid 10 places since May 2025.“For reference, it was 5th place in April 2025, with a market cap of $1.86T, surpassing Alphabet, Google, Silver and Amazon at the time,” ColinTalksCrypto, creator of the YouTube channel of the same name, commented in a post on X.ColinTalksCrypto predicted Bitcoin returning to the top five, but not for many years.“This is the nature of a volatile asset that outpaces other assets in the long run,” he concluded. “I expect BTC will reach the top 5 (again) within 5-10 years.”Source: Companies Market CapTrader: Bitcoin bear market almost 70% completeIn April 2025, BTC/USD put in its low of the year amid uncertainty over US international trade tariffs.Related: Can BTC rebound to $69K as oil price plunges? Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekAt around $74,500, the low was unchallenged until early this year, while in February, a new bottom zone was established that is now acting as a local price ceiling.“The February BTC floor is acting as the June ceiling,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital summarized in an X post on Thursday.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAs Cointelegraph reported, opinions differ over whether BTC price action will continue its rebound from multiyear lows or drop again to resume the bear market.Rekt Capital is among those who see the bearish trend continuing, in line with historical patterns.“Bitcoin will very soon be 70% through its current Bear Market,” he told X followers this week.

Bitcoin (BTC) bounced off week-to-date lows into Wednesday’s Wall Street open as corporate sell pressure returned to the radar.Key points:Bitcoin sees a new low for the current weekly candle with the Fed FOMC meeting due in hours.Analysis warns that markets remain concerned over Strategy potentially selling more BTC.Fed chair Kevin Warsh faces a tough balancing act at his first interest-rate decision.Strategy selling still impacting Bitcoin price strengthData from TradingView showed BTC/USD heading higher after dropping to $64,500 on Bitstamp.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe pair saw ongoing weakness ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s interest-rate meeting, scheduled for 2pm Eastern time. As Cointelegraph reported, such events tend to trigger BTC price downside.In its latest Market Color analysis, trading company QCP Capital said that the BTC price outlook was clouded by more than just the Fed.“While broader markets continue to trade higher on optimism across multiple fronts, BTC remains stuck below the 66k level,” it wrote. “The underperformance has been driven in part by concerns that Strategy may need to sell more Bitcoin to fund dividend payments, especially after buying back $1.5 billion of its 2029 Convertible Senior Notes.”Source: CointelegraphQCP explained that contingency measures by technology company Strategy had “extended its runway” in terms of liquidity after selling 32 BTC in May, but markets remained wary of potential problems further down the line.“In the short term, we think this overhang may continue to prevent Bitcoin from fully participating in the broader macro optimism. However, as Strategy continues to issue shares and lengthen its runway, that optimism may eventually catch up to BTC,” it continued.“For now, the macro tide has turned more supportive, but Bitcoin still has one very specific overhang to work through.”Fed’s Warsh faces “difficult opening act”On the Fed, meanwhile, QCP joined those putting the focus on new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh.Related: Can BTC rebound to $69K as oil price plunges? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week“Warsh takes the stage at his first Fed meeting as Chair today,” it stressed.“Previous expectations had positioned him as dovish and more inclined toward rate cuts, but the economic backdrop has shifted materially.”QCP described a “difficult opening act” for Warsh, who should balance inflationary trends with pressure to cut rates from president Donald Trump.“Today’s meeting will therefore be about more than the rate decision,” it continued, referring to outgoing chair, Jerome Powell. “It will be Warsh’s first opportunity to secure buy-in from Powell and the rest of the Board, while establishing himself as a credible and independent Fed Chair.”Fed target rate probabilities for Wednesday FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupData from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed no odds of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cutting rates.Andre Dragosch, European head of research at crypto asset manager Bitwise, noted that markets increasingly expected a rate hike by the end of the year — a clear would-be headwind for crypto and risk assets.“IMO still a lot of monetary policy uncertainty around the question whether Warsh is rather hawkish or dovish amid the rise in inflation,” he wrote in a post on X.Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $65,000 on Wednesday as traders predicted the impact of a key macro event.Key points:Bitcoin approaches the next Fed interest-rate decision near important support.BTC price analysis warns that “bearish” moves typically accompany FOMC days.$55,000 remains on the table as a target next.BTC price analysis: FOMC could “set the tone” for JuneData from TradingView showed intraday lows of $64,782 on Bitstamp.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe US Federal Reserve was due to decide on changes to interest rates at 2pm Eastern time — a move that formed the week’s main volatility catalyst.The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would be the first under new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, making his remarks at the subsequent press conference just as important as the overall outcome.As Cointelegraph reported, Warsh had been under pressure to cut rates despite the inflationary impact of the US-Iran war.“FOMC could set the tone for the rest of the month,” trader Killa wrote in an X post on the topic.Killa noted that BTC price action tended to weaken around Fed decisions.“Right now, BTC is forming a bullish narrative into the event, but as I always say, the outcome is usually priced in before the news is released,” they continued.“If recent history is any indication, we have generated far more bearish reactions than bullish ones.”BTC/USD chart with FOMC meetings marked. Source: Killa/XOn Tuesday, Bitcoin already experienced a loss of momentum, even as stocks headed higher on Iran relief. Analysis had already warned that price would likely stall above $67,000 as demand remained subdued.“We need to maintain bullish market structure from here… (64K). If not, there’s a strong chance we revisit the $60K lows after this pivot,” Killa warned.Bitcoin trader preserves $55,000 targetOther perspectives included a “short-term bounce” for Bitcoin before the resumption of the bear market.Related: Bitcoin miner ‘capitulation’ comes as trader sees later 2026 bear-market bottom“FOMC meeting is happening today, exactly when the US-Iran peace deal is very close,” Niels, cofounder of marketing agency STABL, told X followers. “IMO, Bitcoin could show some strength but eventually it’s going to $55,000.”BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Niels/XA more optimistic take came from analytics account Cryptic Trades, which saw the rebound continuing after the FOMC.BTC/USD, it said, had rejected at two key moving averages that together form Bitcoin’s daily bull market support band.BTC/USD one-day chart with bull market support band. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView“However, after this pullback, the next big leg up is coming,” Cryptic Trades predicted.BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Cryptic Trades/X

Bitcoin (BTC) dropped back to $66,000 after Tuesday’s Wall Street open as stocks locked in fresh gains.Key points:Bitcoin cools its rebound, even as stock continue higher on US-Iran peace plans.Oil prices hit their lowest levels in three months, but crypto struggles to leverage the tailwinds.BTC price takes still see $70,000 as the limit for the current push higher.BTC price dips with oil as stocks head out in frontData from TradingView showed BTC price action coming off its highest levels in nearly two weeks.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewHopes that a US-Iran peace deal would go ahead kept equities bullish, with the S&P 500 adding over 1.5% on the day, while US WTI crude oil hit three-month lows.“News of an peace deal between the U.S. and Iran has made headlines frequently in the past. But this time, both sides along with other parties involved with negotiations are confirming the deal,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic. “That’s leading to a spillover effect in the stock market, where oil prices and longer-dated bond yields are both pulling back. A negative correlation between stocks and oil prices means the drop in energy prices is a tailwind for equities.”S&P 500 vs. WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBitcoin nonetheless brought back its own divergence from other risk assets, and traders avoided bets on major BTC price upside.“$BTC Has moved up further back into its range,” Daan Crypto Trades wrote in his latest analysis on X. “I would not be surprised if we hang around this big area for a few more weeks at least. Especially with Summer coming up and lower liquidity/volatility.”BTC/USDT perpetual contract one-day chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/XTrader Roman joined those putting the area around $70,000 as a likely local top target.“Still eyeing the 70k level for our bounce to be completed.,” he told X followers.“Hourly TFs look good to continue a bit higher. There aren’t any ‘issues’ that I see yet to stop this bounce.”Bitcoin trader calls “classic market psyop”As Cointelegraph reported, other market analysis has cast doubt over the strength of $60,000 as long-term support, arguing that the bear market is too young to be over yet.Related: Bitcoin analysis warns over BTC price rejection as $67K approachesCountering this, trader Killa suggested that both market makers and trading algorithms had lured traders into betting on new lows that would never come.“Just another classic market psyop,” they summarized alongside a chart of order-book liquidity data.BTC/USD order-book liquidity data. Source: Killa/XData from CoinGlass put 24-hour crypto short liquidations at $230 million at the time of writing.Cryptocurrency liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassCommenting, trader Lennaert Snyder said that price was headed into a “high-time frame sell zone,” targeting $68,000 for Tuesday.“The liquidity sub 63.6K looks too juicy to not mitigate, but for the quality short I’d prefer that push to the upside first,” he wrote on X.BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: Lennaert Snyder/X