Autor Marcel Pechman

Bitcoin bounces off new 2026 price lows: Will US stock weakness push BTC lower?

Bitcoin bounces off new 2026 price lows: Will US stock weakness push BTC lower?

Uverejnil používateľ | jún 25, 2026 |

Key takeaways:Surging spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and a put-heavy options expiry point to fading institutional demand.Risk-reward shifts toward tech stocks, leaving crypto traders to seek catalysts beyond macroeconomic tailwinds.Bitcoin (BTC) traded down 9% in three days, hitting its lowest level since September 2024. The $58,000 retest triggered over $1 billion in liquidations across bullish BTC leveraged positions. Despite a modest recovery to $59,500, Bitcoin traders remain uneasy as the S&P 500 index and gold prices fully erased their intraday losses.Bitcoin/USD (orange) vs. gold/USD & Nasdaq 100 futures (green). Source: TradingViewThe market downturn on Thursday lined up with the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which showed a 4.1% increase in May from the prior year. Yet as Crude Brent oil prices pulled back to $75 from $95 just one month earlier, investors grew more confident that inflation had peaked. As a result, the cash freed up by lower energy costs is boosting the stock market.Shares of Micron, Sandisk, Applied Materials. Source: TradingViewThe tech sector kept delivering strong surprises, with Micron Technology (MU) jumping 16% after solid quarterly earnings and Sandisk (SNDK) riding along with an 18% gain. Applied Materials (AMAT) rose 10% thanks to its new chipmaking tools. Investors’ renewed faith in the sector also mirrors the US government administration’s recent emphasis.Fixed income offers a more compelling hedge alternativeEven if Bitcoin does not directly compete with the artificial intelligence sector, traders’ risk-reward views have likely tilted toward stocks. This shift followed the US government taking a 9.9% stake in Intel, proposing $2 billion for quantum computing firms, opening federal lands for data center projects, and setting a framework for “frontier models” releases.Investors worried about inflated AI valuations after Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX) shares fell 32% from their peak can find comfort in 5-year US Treasuries yielding 4.15%. Demand for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin faded as traders now see an 80% chance of US interest rate hikes by December, up from 68% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValueBitcoin’s appeal also took a hit from the massive $469 million net outflows in spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Wednesday. The metric serves as a key proxy for institutional demand. Sentiment worsened further as Strategy (MSTR) now sits on a huge unrealized loss after buying $64.1 billion worth of Bitcoin since 2020.Related: 21shares trims 2026 crypto forecasts despite institutional adoption gainsStrategy (MSTR) Bitcoin reserves and cash position, USD. Source: StrategyThe upcoming $13 billion Bitcoin options expiry on Friday heavily favors put (sell) instruments. Most neutral-to-bullish strategies will likely expire worthless, since 78% of call (buy) options are priced at $72,000 or above. Put options open interest on Deribit will exceed call options by $3.4 billion.Bitcoin’s price momentum shows little tie to stocks due to heavy ETF outflows, a bearish options expiry skew and Strategy’s mounting unrealized losses. Bitcoin traders must now hunt for unique catalysts beyond equity market tailwinds to spark a turnaround.

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Bitcoin nearly loses $59K as DXY surges: Are traders bracing for more pain?

Bitcoin nearly loses $59K as DXY surges: Are traders bracing for more pain?

Uverejnil používateľ | jún 24, 2026 |

Key takeaways:Cooling oil prices and a multi-month high for the US dollar are keeping intense pressure on non yield-bearing assets.Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows paired with Strategy’s slowest buying pace in 18 months signal short-term downside risks.Bitcoin (BTC) traded down to $59,060 on Wednesday despite the sharp retreat in oil prices. Inflationary pressures eased following a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, which temporarily reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin traders fear that the bounce back to $60,000 might not last long as the US dollar strengthened.US dollar strength index (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingViewThe US dollar jumped to its highest level against a basket of foreign currencies in 13 months, indicating growing confidence in the US economy. Typically, this metric shows a negative correlation with Bitcoin’s price, as some investors view the cryptocurrency as a hedge against inflationary pressures traditionally driven by high oil prices.Gold (left) vs. Brent Crude oil, USD. Source: TradingViewGold prices fell below $4,000 for the first time in 7 months as Brent crude oil plummeted below $74, nearing levels seen prior to the conflict in Iran. Investors signaled lower demand for scarce assets despite moderate anxiety about tech-sector cash flows amid increased capital expenditure by AI hyperscalers.Bitcoin investment thesis weakened by reduced inflation perspectives and AI sector growthInflation will take time to cool down to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) target of 2%, leading traders to anticipate interest rates remaining higher for longer, which ultimately favors fixed-income investments. The latest US Labor Department unemployment benefit claims data fell by 4,000 from the prior week, further confirming that the economy is not slowing.US expanded Monetary Base (M2), USD. Source: Fed St LouisRegardless of investors’ risk assessments of the profitability of AI infrastructure investments, US government debt has been driving up liquidity over the past 3 years. Data released on Tuesday revealed that the US expanded Monetary Base (M2) increased to $23.05 trillion in May, up from $22.8 trillion the prior month.Related: Lyn Alden tips Bitcoin outperforming gold over next ‘two to three years’While there is no short-term correlation between the amount of money in circulation and Bitcoin’s price, investors will eventually seek gains elsewhere if higher demand for fixed income causes diminished yields. For now, the tech sector remains investors’ largest bet, weakening the case for alternative scarce assets such as Bitcoin.Micron (MU US), the computer memory and data storage manufacturer, reported strong quarterly earnings on Wednesday. Micron’s market capitalization has grown to $1.16 trillion, following a 265% gain over 6 months. More impressively, chipmakers SK Hynix and Samsung now account for 40% of the entire South Korean stock market, according to CNBC.Strategy (MSTR US) Bitcoin reserve changes, BTC. Source: StrategyThe slowdown in Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisition pace has likely contributed to the weaker market sentiment. The company, led by Michael Saylor, reported adding 520 BTC during the week ending June 21, marking its lowest weekly intake in 18 months. Moreover, $300 million of the net proceeds from MSTR’s stock issuance during the period were used to replenish its cash position.Bitcoin’s negative performance on Wednesday partly reflects macroeconomic conditions, with gold prices also affected. However, heavy net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and disappointment that Strategy’s stock trades below its Bitcoin reserve acquisition cost have added significant pressure. Thus, further downside from the $59,000 level should not be ruled out.

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$170M Ether longs liquidated as crypto market tumbles: Is ETH doomed?

$170M Ether longs liquidated as crypto market tumbles: Is ETH doomed?

Uverejnil používateľ | jún 24, 2026 |

Key takeaways:Negative ETH futures funding rates and six weeks of spot ETF outflows highlight a fragile investment climate.Ethereum’s 53% market share in DeFi keeps it well-placed for a recovery, even as negative news continues to batter the network.Ether (ETH) price faced a 5% correction on Tuesday, erasing gains from the previous 12 days. The move triggered $170 million in liquidations of bullish leveraged ETH positions, putting traders on alert. Disconcerting news that the Ethereum Foundation was laying off 20% of its staff contrasts with optimism surrounding an upcoming network upgrade, but should ETH traders be worried?ETH perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: LaevitasDemand for bearish ETH positioning briefly surged on Tuesday as the perpetual futures annualized funding rate flipped into deeply negative territory, meaning shorts (sellers) paid to keep their positions open. The current 3% level signals a lack of confidence from bulls, but it should not come as a surprise given Ether’s recent weakness.ETH/USD (orange) vs Total crypto capitalization (blue). Source: TradingViewEther price declined by 20% over 30 days, slightly worse than the 17% drop in the broader cryptocurrency market capitalization. Part of the move ties to investors’ fear over ongoing peace negotiations between the US and Iran. Moreover, high costs of artificial intelligence build-out have led investors to act more cautiously.Ethereum leads DeFi even as activity slumpsThe overall weakness in the decentralized applications (DApps) industry has led multiple projects to shut down, while the aggregate total value locked (TVL) shrank by 23% in three months. Lower demand for blockchain data processing weakens the case for ETH investment, although the Ethereum network’s leadership in TVL and activity should not be understated.Blockchains ranked by Total Value Locked, USD. Source: DefiLlamaEthereum’s $38 billion decentralized finance (DeFi) TVL represents a 53% market share, signaling institutional investors’ preference. Additionally, when including its layer-2 scaling solutions, the Ethereum ecosystem accounts for 43% of decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes. However, Ethereum faces criticism for relatively low 30-day fees of $11 million.Despite controlled ETH issuance at 0.8% equivalent annual inflation, the staking reward rate was 2.7%, lower than the US money market yield. Adding to investors’ concerns, the publicly listed company BitMine (BMNR US) held $9.3 billion in unrealized losses on its ETH reserves. The company, led by its Chairman Tom Lee, continues to increase its position.Even though there is no imminent risk of BitMine being forced to reduce its ETH holdings, the situation likely deters institutional investors’ appetite. More concerningly, US-listed Ether spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted net outflows for six consecutive weeks. Regardless of the rationale behind the move, the constant selling pressure undermined traders’ sentiment.Related: Morgan Stanley amends Ethereum, Solana ETFs to reveal record cheap feesUS-listed spot Ether ETFs weekly net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValueA total of $910 million has left the US-listed spot Ether ETFs since mid-May, reducing total net assets to $9.4 billion. The downturn in the cryptocurrency market coincided with the Ethereum Foundation’s (EF) organizational restructuring due to a 40% budget cut. The EF announced on Tuesday that 20% of its workforce was let go.Still, Ethereum’s development does not depend solely on EF’s work, and the upcoming Glamsterdam protocol upgrade is expected to reduce centralization by splitting block creation while improving security and execution efficiency through parallel transaction processing.At least in relative terms, ETH stands well-positioned to capture the eventual comeback in DApp demand, given the Ethereum network’s dominance in institutional investor activity.

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Bitcoin funding rate hits 2-week high: Is $70K next?

Bitcoin funding rate hits 2-week high: Is $70K next?

Uverejnil používateľ | jún 23, 2026 |

Key takeaways:The Bitcoin funding rate climbed to 7%, showing confidence, but spot ETF outflows keep a $70,000 breakout on hold for now.Strong order-book bids and lower oil prices helped, but weakness across stocks, bonds, and gold signals a preference for cash.Bitcoin (BTC) flirted with the $65,500 level on Monday after US Vice President JD Vance said that the Strait of Hormuz remains open amid “encouraging progress” on talks with the Iranian delegation in Switzerland. Bitcoin traders showed signs of optimism through growing demand for bullish leveraged positions, raising the question of whether $70,000 is next.Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: LaevitasThe Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate jumped to 7% on Monday, its highest level in nearly three weeks. Although still within the neutral 6%-12% range, the indicator reflects growing confidence among bulls. Part of the optimism likely stemmed from Brent crude oil prices declining to $77.50, their lowest level since March.Crude Brent oil, USD (left) vs. Nasdaq 100 futures (right). Source: TradingViewThe Nasdaq 100 Index posted a modest 1% decline as artificial intelligence stocks weakened. SpaceX (SPCX US) shares dropped 13% after the company announced plans to raise debt despite holding more than $100 billion in cash. Investors fear the sector will need higher investments for longer before turning profitable.Bitcoin options premium put-to-call ratio at Deribit, USD. Source: LaevitasDemand for put (sell) options outpaced call (buy) instruments by over two times on Monday, signaling stronger demand for downside price protection. The indicator has leaned toward bearish strategies since Friday, reversing the trend from the prior week. Strategy eases concerns, but stocks and bonds signal increased riskPart of traders’ concerns stemmed from weakness in Strategy’s (STRC US) valuation. Shares of Strategy traded 13% below the $64.1 billion cost to acquire BTC 847,363. Despite holding a comfortable $6.75 billion in debt, investors feared the company would need to sell reserves. Those concerns eased somewhat as Strategy announced a $300 billion additional cash position.Aggregated Bitcoin orderbook 1% liquidity delta, USD. Source: CoinGlassBids on major exchanges’ Bitcoin order books exceeded offers by $12 million on Monday, reversing the weekend trend. Consequently, Bitcoin’s failure to hold the $65,000 level should not signal weakness, especially since gold traded down 0.9% on Monday while investors sold US government bonds.Related: Bitcoin tipped for $66K top as trader flags ‘suspicious’ BTC price gainsGold/USD (left) vs. US 5-year Treasury yield (right). Source: TradingViewHigher yields on US Treasuries signal that investors demanded higher returns to hold those bonds, whether driven by inflation or by the anticipation of dilution from rising US government debt levels. The simultaneous weak performance across stocks, bonds, and gold points to a preference for cash positions, creating a cautious backdrop for Bitcoin.Weak demand for US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continues to weigh on investor sentiment after six weeks of outflows. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $228 million in net outflows the prior week, according to CoinGlass data. Consequently, the odds of a short-term Bitcoin rally to $70,000 look limited.

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$13B Bitcoin options expiry looms: Will bulls endure more pain in June?

$13B Bitcoin options expiry looms: Will bulls endure more pain in June?

Uverejnil používateľ | jún 19, 2026 |

Key takeaways:Puts (sell) options dominate the June 26 expiry with net advantages of $1B to $3.4B, leaving bulls exposed.Despite Strategy buying BTC again, heavy call (buy) positioning above $72,000 will likely reinforce bearish momentum.$13 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) options open interest is set to expire on June 26, potentially giving bears fresh ammunition for more downside pressure on BTC price. Bitcoin’s 14% price drop in June so far has caught bulls flat-footed, since most call (buy) options were stacked at $68,000 or higher. Will this monthly expiry open the door for a July recovery?Deribit options dominate the scene with $10.4 billion in open interest, representing a 79% market share. OKX sits in second at 6%, followed by Binance and CME at 5% each, and Bybit with 4%. It’s worth digging into how Deribit traders are positioned ahead of the monthly expiry.Bitcoin June 26 options open interest at Deribit, BTC. Source: DeribitTotal call options open interest at Deribit hit $6 billion, but 78% of that sits at $72,000 or higher. With less than a week to go, the effective open interest will likely shrink fast. In contrast, out of the $4.5 billion in put (sell) options open interest, only 28% hinge on Bitcoin falling to $57,000 or below. This setup makes matters significantly worse for bulls overall.Bitcoin bulls made the wrong call on Strategy and US regulationSome of the bulls’ over-the-top optimism traces back to Strategy’s (MSTR US) aggressive BTC buying spree in April and May. The firm added 62,841 BTC in just four weeks, helping push prices above $73,000 in May. But sentiment soured as US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows kick off in mid-May.US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs weekly net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValueHopes for quick passage of the Digital Asset PARITY Act in the United States also faded. The bill would have spared mining and staking rewards from taxes until sold. The market took another hit from Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC and the resulting ETF outflows, even as excitement around tech stocks grew after Google (GOOG US) and Nvidia’s (NVDA US) cash raises.Related: Bitcoin decouples from tech stocks–Is $60K BTC’s next stop?Bulls still have time to cut losses, but puts clearly hold the stronger hand right now. Here are four likely scenarios for Friday’s BTC options expiry at Deribit based on current price trends:Between $57,000 and $61,000: The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $3.4 billion.Between $61,001 and $65,000: The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $2.7 billion.Between $65,001 and $69,000: The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $1.7 billion.Between $69,001 and $71,000: The net result favors the put (sell) instruments by $1 billion.Even a 12% rally from the current $63,000 level won’t flip the June expiry in favor of calls. While this doesn’t lock in bear control for July, the expiry outcome will probably weigh on bullish sentiment heading into the new month.

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