Autor Cointelegraph By Yashu Gola

This Bitcoin price fractal from 2018 could trap bulls, sink BTC price to $25K — analyst

This Bitcoin price fractal from 2018 could trap bulls, sink BTC price to $25K — analyst

Uverejnil používateľ | feb 16, 2022 |

A recent price recovery in the Bitcoin (BTC) market risks getting erased due to an eerie fractal from 2018.Bitcoin price cycle similaritiesFirst spotted by CryptoBullet, an independent market analyst, the fractal shows Bitcoin recreating an inverse head-and-shoulders (IH&S) pattern that preceded its price decline toward $3,100 later in December 2018. As a result, anticipations that BTC’s price will undergo similar declines in 2022 might grow. That is primarily because of the strikingly similar price trends between the pric downtrends in 2018 and 2021-2022. For instance, Bitcoin formed two higher highs in April and May 2018 around $10,000 before plunging below $6,000 in July while constructing the IH&S pattern. BTC/USD daily price chart featuring IH&S fractal from 2018. Source: TradingViewInterestingly, in October 2021-February 2022, Bitcoin underwent an identical price trajectory, forming two higher highs — near $65,000 in April and $69,000 in November. Later, the price corrected to below $33,000 in early February while forming another IH&S pattern. With IH&S being a bullish reversal pattern, BTC now awaits a breakout move towards or above $50,000. A similar technical setup shared by market analyst Lark Davis projects Bitcoin above $60,000.#bitcoin forming a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern with a price target over 60k. Valid on break of orange line which is just beyond key area of resistance. pic.twitter.com/ijjZPzm6cB— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) February 16, 20222018 BTC price fractal risks trapping bullsBut a climb to $50,000 — or even $60,000 — may not absolve Bitcoin from its prevailing bearish bias. If the 2018 fractal repeats itself religiously in 2022, BTC’s likelihood of falling toward $25,000 appears higher, as explained in the chart below.BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewNotably, the 2018 price action saw Bitcoin breaking out to the upside after its IH&S formation, reaching almost $10,000. In doing so, BTC’s price briefly reclaimed its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave) as support, only to break below it later. As it did, the price further declined towards the 200-week EMA (the blue wave) near $3,000, where it bottomed out in December 2018.Applying the same fractal to the ongoing price action, Bitcoin might end up closing above its 50-week EMA, eventually hitting levels in the $50,000-$60,000 range. Nonetheless, it will move back below the red wave, and extend its decline towards the 200-week EMA, which sits near $25,000.The negative outlook aligns with what Ari Rudd, an independent market analyst, shared in a Twitter thread on Feb. 14. As Cointelegraph covered, the chartist cited Logarithmic Fractal Growth and moving average ribbon supports,  suggesting that BTC’s price might fall to the $24,000-$27,000 range in the coming months.Not another 2018?On the brighter side, Bitcoin has been treading ahead against more optimistic fundamentals than in 2018. Notably, BTC’s price has rallied from under $4,000 in March 2020 to as high as $69,000 in November 2021, amid an increase in retail and institutional adoption led by macroeconomic risks such as higher inflation.Inflation hit 7.5% in January. Highest in four decades. It continues to accelerate. The best way to shield yourself from this pernicious, silent tax on your life’s work — your blood, sweat, and tears — is bitcoin.— Cameron Winklevoss (@cameron) February 10, 2022

A November 2021 opinion editorial penned by Bloomberg Opinion’s John Authers points out that headline inflation, the consumer price index (CPI), rose roughly 28% in the past ten years. But denominating the same gauge in Bitcoin returned 99.99% deflation. But the mathematics came with a warning.”If you put all your life savings into bitcoin a decade ago, well done. Should you do that now? Perhaps not,” wrote Authers, adding: “Over the last 10 years, bitcoin has delivered a lot of deflation, including 76% in the last 12 months alone, but also a couple of terrifying episodes when annual inflation ran at more than 200%.”Interestingly, the “terrifying episodes” occurred during the bearish cycles of 2015 and 2018.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Warren Buffett invests $1B in Bitcoin-friendly neobank, dumps Visa and Mastercard stocks

Warren Buffett invests $1B in Bitcoin-friendly neobank, dumps Visa and Mastercard stocks

Uverejnil používateľ | feb 15, 2022 |

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway dumped a portion of its Visa and Mastercard holdings and increased exposure in Nubank, the largest fintech bank in Brazil that’s also popular among the country’s Bitcoin investors.In a securities filing late Feb. 14, the industrial conglomerate disclosed that it had purchased $1 billion worth of Nubank Class A stock in Q4/2021. On the other hand, it sold $1.8 billion and $1.3 billion worth of Visa and Mastercard stock, respectively, signaling a shift away from credit companies to gain exposure in their fintech rivals.Buffett, the so-called “Oracle of Omaha,” is popular for his cautious approach to investing, particularly in the market’s hottest sectors such as fintech. The veteran investor had also downplayed emerging decentralized finance solutions like Bitcoin (BTC), ridiculing it as an asset that “does not create anything.”But Berkshire’s new stake in Nubank shows that Buffett has been softening up to fintech lately. In detail, the firm had invested $500 million in the startup in July 2021. Its returns on the said investment amounted to $150 million in December 2021 after Nubank debuted on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).$NU Buffett-backed Nubank stock set for NYSE debut as IPO pricing valued company at about $41.5 Billion.The company raised $2.60 Billion as it sold 289.15 Million shares in IPO. Berkshire bought 10% of the shares in the offering.#fintechnews pic.twitter.com/HTujZZvCtJ— InvestingDesk (@InvestingDesk) December 9, 2021So far, Buffett has not shown any intention to sell his position in Nubank.The Buffett-Bitcoin connectionBuffett’s additional investment into Nubank shows his acknowledgment of the fintech sector’s underlying theme the digitization of financial services, as well as his willingness to associate with companies that are involved in the cryptocurrency sector.In detail, Easynvest, a trading platform that Nubank acquired in September 2020 has been actively offering a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) since June 2021. Dubbed QBTC11, the ETF is backed by QR Asset Management and is listed on the B3 stock exchange, the second-oldest bourse in Brazil.Thus, it appears that Nubank, which remains exposed to the emerging crypto sector via Easynvest, could use the additional revenue opportunities to benefit its top investor, Warren Buffett, despite his views that Bitcoin is a “rat poison squared.”That is primarily because of the growth of crypto-related investment products in 2021. Notably, their numbers doubled in the year, rising from 35 to 80, as per Bloomberg Intelligence data, while the total valuations of the assets they held reached $63 billion versus $24 billion at the start of 2021.Cash flowing into crypto funds doubled in 2021. Source: Bloomberg IntelligenceEmily Portney, chief financial officer at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. — another firm in Buffett’s investment portfolio — noted that digital assets could become a “meaningful source of revenue” for investment banking firms as Bitcoin investment vehicles become more mainstream.Related: Bitcoin’s 30% recovery in two weeks has BTC whales back in accumulation modeMeanwhile, Leah Wald, chief executive of crypto-asset manager Valkyrie Investments, predicted an increase in the capital flows into crypto-related investment vehicles, saying they have become a “phenomenon that’s starting to take off,” before commenting:”If you look at inflows from a volume perspective, not only has it been steady even with the price corrections that Bitcoin is notoriously famous for, but you’re seeing a lot of institutions jump in.”Buffett’s portfolio full of crypto-loving companiesWhile Buffett might not invest in Bitcoin directly, he is already gaining indirect exposure as companies in his portfolio foray into the crypto sector.For instance, in October 2021, just a month before Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $69,000, fifth-largest U.S. bank U.S. Bancorp launched a cryptocurrency custody service for its institutional investment managers, noting that they witnessed an increase in demand from their “fund services clients” over the last few years.Similarly, in another announcement made October 2021, Bank of America launched a cryptocurrency research initiative, citing “growing institutional interest.” Months before, BNY Mellon announced that it would hold, transfer and issue Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies for its asset-management clients. Announcing the creation of the BNY Mellon Digital Assets unit – A team dedicated to building the first multi-asset custody and administration platform for traditional and digital assets, including #cryptocurrencies. https://t.co/aZ7wMfAXqg pic.twitter.com/L54TFVpJNv— BNY Mellon (@BNYMellon) February 11, 2021

“The Nubank investment can be tagged as Buffett’s way of supporting the fintech/crypto world without taking back his criticisms of the past,” asserted Greg Waisman, co-founder and chief operating officer of crypto wallet service Mercuryo, adding that the Berkshire boss is now backing the “digital currency ecosystem indirectly.””Even an indirect exposure is bound to increase the positive sentiment that may push more investors into the space.”The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin bull trap? 3 indicators that predict BTC price falling to $24K-27K this year

Bitcoin bull trap? 3 indicators that predict BTC price falling to $24K-27K this year

Uverejnil používateľ | feb 14, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) looks ready to fall below $30,000 in the coming months, per a confluence of historically accurate technical indicators brought forth by popular analyst Ari Rudd.The independent market analyst published a thread on Feb. 14, explaining why Bitcoin’s ongoing price recovery — from below $33,000 on Jan. 24 to around $42,000 today — might not have strong legs. In doing so, Rudd presented at least three long-term technical setups with extremely bearish outlooks.They are listed as follows:1. Bitcoin LFG modelRudd’s Logarithmic Fractal Growth (LFG) is a Bitcoin price prediction model that relies on BTC’s fractals that consist of “logarithmic scales on both axes.” It then projects where Bitcoin may go next based on its historical price actions.The analyst applied the LFG model on a monthly BTC/USD chart.As shown in the chart below, the LFG levels had posed as accumulation/distribution zones for traders during the previous bearish cycles. So, Rudd noted that Bitcoin still had to fall to the lowermost level range, a so-called buy-area that had coincided with bottoms during the 2018 and 2020 price crashes.BTC/USD monthly chart featuring the LFG model. Source: Ari Rudd, TradingView”We are a few months away from reaching the accumulation phase,” Rudd stressed, adding that: “Best possible scenario for buy opportunities will be 24-27K levels.”2. Ribbon supportLike the LFG model, moving average ribbons have coincided accurately with the end of Bitcoin’s bearish cycles, including 2018 and 2020, on a quarterly timeframe.In detail, these ribbons represent a range of moving averages (MAs) that enables traders to identify key resistance and support areas by looking at prices in relation to the MAs. Each of Bitcoin’s top-to-bottom trends earlier has exhausted near its so-called “ribbon support.” With the cryptocurrency undergoing another price correction from its $69,000-top, the analyst suggests that its strong bounce from near $33,000 could turn out to be a bull trap because the price is “due to retest the Ribbon support on [the] quarterly chart.”BTC/USD quarterly price chart featuring moving average ribbons. Source: TradingViewAs a result, the moving averages ribbon indicator risks sending Bitcoin to $25,000 or below.3. Weekly ribbon resistance, RSIAnother moving average ribbon indicator, but on weekly timeframes, has been instrumental in capping Bitcoin’s ongoing price rebound. Related: ‘Up only’ for BTC fundamentals — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this weekThe “strong resistance,” as Rudd hinted, provided further bearish sentiment if coupled with Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index (RSI). BTC/USD weekly price chart featuring ribbon resistance and RSI. Source: TradingViewRSI gives traders cues about bullish and bearish price momentum. Rudd noted that the buying momentum weakened around a downward sloping RSI trendline, hinting at potential selloffs ahead for the BTC/USD pair.A bullish takeaway, meanwhileIn contrast to the bearish technical indicators mentioned above, there are several Bitcoin on-chain indicators providing an interim bullish outlook. As Cointelegraph covered earlier, Bitcoin addresses that hold at least 1,000 BTC witnessed have added more tokens to their balances during the recent upside retracement, signaling that the richest crypto investors have been backing the BTC’s rebound move. Bitcoin balance on exchanges. Source: GlassnodeAdditionally, the amount of Bitcoin held by exchanges dropped Sunday to its lowest levels in over three years, data from Glassnode shows, in a continuing bullish downtrend that remains intact since the March 2020 bottom. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Can XRP price reach $1 after 25% gains in one week? Watch this key support level

Can XRP price reach $1 after 25% gains in one week? Watch this key support level

Uverejnil používateľ | feb 13, 2022 |

XRP price has continued to bounce back after falling by more than 70% in a correction between April 2021 and January 2022.Why the XRP/USD 50-week EMA is keyOn Feb. 13, XRP/USD reached as high as $0.916, above its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave) around $0.833. The upside move, albeit not decisive, opened possibilities for further bullish momentum, mainly owing to a historical buying sentiment around the said wave.XRP/USD weekly price chart featuring 50-week EMA. Source: TradingViewFor instance, traders had successfully reclaimed the 50-week EMA as support in the week ending July 27, 2020, more than a year after flipping the wave as resistance. Later, XRP’s price rallied by more than 820% to $1.98 in April 2021, its best level in more than three years.Conversely, during the bearish cycles between 2018 and 2020, XRP’s 50-week EMA acted as a strong resistance level on multiple occasions. That showed the wave’s ability to withstand bullish recovery sentiments, such as the one witnessed during the current price rebound.Can XRP retake $1? XRP now needs to hold decisively above its 50-week EMA, which could have it reclaim $1 in the sessions ahead.The level, which sits around 25% above the current price levels, coincides with XRP’s two key resistance targets. The first is the multi-month downward sloping trendline that has been capping the token’s upside bias since April 2021XRP/USD weekly price chart featuring upside target. Source: TradingViewMeanwhile, the second target is the 0.382 Fib line of the Fibonacci retracement level drawn between $2.70-swing high and $0.10-swing low, also having a history of limiting XRP’s strong trends by acting as both support and resistance.Still a lower high, the $1-level does not promise to take XRP out of its correction bias. Instead, it may bring opportunities for traders to secure their interim profits, thus exposing XRP to a pullback toward an imminent support target near $0.71, as per the Fibonacci retracement graph. The bears’ case Conversely, failure to obtain a decisive close above the 50-week EMA resistance could have XRP eye a pullback toward its 200-week EMA (the blue wave) near $0.54.This move risks trapping the price inside a range defined by 50-week EMA as resistance and 200-week EMA as support, which may result in a further breakout to the downside. The bearish outlook appears out of a fractal from June 2018-June 2019 session, as shown in the chart below.XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewNotably, XRP’s run-up to its record high of $3.55 in January 2018 coincided with its weekly relative strength index (RSI), forming a lower high, thus confirming a bearish divergence. Later, the price declined below its 50-week EMA but picked support from its 200-week EMA. The RSI’s fall also exhausted near 37, just above its oversold reading of 30.XRP trended sideways inside the said moving average range, while the RSI maintained a reading above 37. Nonetheless, in June 2019, the price broke below the 200-day EMA support, extending its decline to as low as $0.10 as of March 2020.Related: XRP gains 30% after Ripple gets permission to explain ‘fair notice defense’ vs. SECIf the fractal plays out as it did in 2018-2019, XRP would risk breaking below its 200-week EMA support near $0.54 in the coming sessions. Such a move may shift XRP’s interim downside target to the 0.786 Fib line near $0.43, according to the Fibonacci retracement graph painted from $0.14-swing low to $1.52-swing high.XRP/USD weekly price chart featuring downside targets. Source: TradingViewMeanwhile, a further break below $0.43 would put the next downside target at $0.22, a level with a history of high-volume trading activity.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Polygon price risks 50% drop as MATIC paints inverted cup and handle pattern

Polygon price risks 50% drop as MATIC paints inverted cup and handle pattern

Uverejnil používateľ | feb 12, 2022 |

Polygon (MATIC) has dropped by more than 40% from its record high of $2.92, established on Dec. 27, 2021. But if a classic technical indicator is to be believed, the token has more room to drop in the sessions ahead.MATIC price chart painting classic bearish patternMATIC’s recent rollover from bullish to bearish, followed by a rebound to the upside, has led to the formation of what appears like an inverted cup and handle pattern — a large crescent shape followed by a less extreme upside retracement, as shown in the chart below.MATIC/USD three-day price chart featuring inverted cup and handle pattern. Source: TradingViewIn a “perfect” scenario, inverted cup and handle setups set the stage for a downturn ahead. As they do, the price tends to fall towards levels that are at length equal to the maximum distance between the setup’s top and bottom, when measured from the breakout level.Therefore, if MATIC breaks bearish out of its “handle” range, i.e., a drop accompanied by an increase in volumes, it may fall toward $0.86, nearly 50% below its current prices, in the future.Polygon bullish scenarioPolygon’s extremely bearish outlook emerged amid a broader crypto market correction in 2022.Top tokens Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) trimmed nearly 11% and 22% off their market valuations year-to-date. Their plunge also triggered similar downside moves elsewhere in the crypto market, with its overall valuation falling to $1.878 trillion on Feb.11 from $2.190 trillion at the beginning of this year.Polygon’s market capitalization dropped to $12.96 billion from $18.10 billion, with MATIC’s per token price plunging over 30% to $1.734 in the same period. Nonetheless, a technical support confluence kept the token’s bullish hopes alive.In detail, two support levels in the form of MATIC’s 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave in the chart below) and a multi-month upward sloping trendline (purple) helped MATIC limit its bearish bias. MATIC/USD daily price chart featuring its key support levels. Source: TradingViewThe Polygon token has been again testing the support confluence for a potential price rebound ahead. However, it appears that an upside retracement would have MATIC retest an imminent resistance level above in the form of a negative sloping trendline (blacked). As a result, a bullish setup could emerge only on a decisive rebound, i.e., price rising alongside trading volumes.If not, MATIC would risk validating the inverted cup and handle pattern above which, according to veteran analyst Tom Bulkowski, has a 62% success rate.Strong on-chain dataMATIC serves as the currency of the Polygon ecosystem with its primary use cases involving fees and staking. Users can choose Polygon for its ability to process Ethereum transactions faster and at a cheaper rate. Related: Polygon raises $450M in Sequoia-led funding roundFor that reason, Polygon’s daily active addresses (DAA) now averages around 300,000 a day compared to 759 at the beginning of 2021, according to data provided by PolygonScan.com.Polygon daily active addresses. Source: PolygonScan.comAnalysts at Panther Research considered a rising DAA as bullish for MATIC, citing Ethereum as their benchmark, whose increasing DAA has been correlating with a rise in ETH prices. Ethereum active addresses. Source: GlassnodeExcerpts from their note:”Given how closely Ethereum’s network adoption and Polygon’s are related, coupled with the fact that Polygon’s PoS Sidechain is set to overtake moving forward and as more solutions are deployed by L1s, it would be reasonable to anticipate that the MATIC token is set to gain value in time to come.”The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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