Autor Cointelegraph By Yashu Gola

Can Bitcoin break out vs. tech stocks again? Nasdaq decoupling paints $100K target

Can Bitcoin break out vs. tech stocks again? Nasdaq decoupling paints $100K target

Uverejnil používateľ | feb 20, 2022 |

A potential decoupling scenario between Bitcoin (BTC) and the Nasdaq Composite can push BTC price to reach $100,000 within 24 months, according to Tuur Demeester, founder of Adamant Capital.Bitcoin outperforms tech stocksDemeester depicted Bitcoin’s growing market valuation against the tech-heavy U.S. stock market index, highlighting its ability to break out every time after a period of strong consolidation. “It may do so again within the coming 24 months,” he wrote, citing the attached chart below.BTC/USD vs. Nasdaq Composite weekly price chart. Source: Tuur Demeester, StockCharts.comBTC’s price has grown from a mere $0.06 to as high as $69,000 more than a decade after its introduction to the market, as per data tracked by the BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin (BLX). BTC/USD versus Nasdaq Composite monthly price chart. Source: TradingViewThat amounted to around a 64.50 million percent increase in Bitcoin’s price since 2010. In comparison, Nasdaq’s returns in the same period come to be nearly 650% — from 20.99 points on June 22, 2020, to 171.54 as of Feb. 18, 2022. As a result, Bitcoin’s market cap has grown to $755 billion compared to Nasdaq’s $28.68 billion.Will Bitcoin decouple from tech stocks again?Bitcoin’s history so far has witnessed multiple periods of its strong correlation with U.S. tech stocks. For instance, earlier this month, the cryptocurrency’s correlation efficiency with Nasdaq reached 0.73, almost near its five-year high of 0.74 in 2020, as per data from Bloomberg.Bitcoin and tech stocks price performance since. September 2017. Source: BloombergBTC’s price per token dropped from its record high of $69,000 to below $33,000 last month amid a selloff across broader risk-on markets. The decline was accompanied by the Federal Reserve’s decision to aggressively raise benchmark rates against rising consumer prices, which reached their four-decade high in January 2022.Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck Associates, anticipated Bitcoin to fall alongside Nasdaq and other U.S. stock indexes, albeit more severe. However, he notes that Bitcoin’s volatility has been in a downtrend in recent years. In comparison, Nasdaq 100 has been exhibiting more standard deviation moves than its five-year average. The outlook portrays that Bitcoin has been gradually improving to become a dependable safe-haven asset against rising inflation. As a result, its correlation with risk-on assets, such as tech stocks could decline. Related: U.S. inflation breaks 40-year record: Can Bitcoin serve as a hedge asset?”It’s correlated for now,” said James Butterfill, head of research at data analytics firm CoinShares, told Bloomberg, adding that the cryptocurrency is “quite sensitive to rising interest rates” fears. He noted:”But what happens in a situation where you have a policy mistake, i.e. the Fed hikes too aggressively, for instance, or they don’t hike aggressively enough, and there’s an inflation problem. That would actually probably be much more supportive of Bitcoin and less supportive for equities.”Additionally, Joey Krug, CEO of Pantera Capital — a crypto-focused hedge fund, anticipates the decoupling to happen in the “next number of weeks,” noting that “crypto will begin to trade on its own.”That $100K BTC price targetDemeester cited Bitcoin’s ability to consolidate around $50,000 despite reeling under the pressure of its correlation with Nasdaq as one of the primary reasons why it could embark on a run-up toward $100,000.Related: https://t.co/0qBrwPQCLe— Tuur Demeester (@TuurDemeester) February 19, 2022The price target came in line with what Goldman Sachs anticipated at the beginning of 2022. The investment giant, which manages $1.2 trillion worth of assets globally, noted that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 if it takes some part of the market share of gold, a traditional safe-haven asset. Today, Bitcoin’s market cap is just under 6% of gold’s.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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XRP 'mega whales' scoop up over $700M in second-biggest accumulation spree in history

XRP 'mega whales' scoop up over $700M in second-biggest accumulation spree in history

Uverejnil používateľ | feb 18, 2022 |

XRP addresses that hold at least 10 million native units have returned to accumulating more in the past three months, a similar scenario that preceded a big rally for the XRP/USD and XRP/BTC pairs in late 2020.The return of XRP ‘mega whales’ A 76% spike in XRP “mega whale” addresses since December 2021 has been noted by analytics firm Santiment showing that they added a total of 897 million tokens, worth over $712 million today, to their reserves.The platform further highlighted that the XRP accumulation witnessed in the last three months was the second-largest in the coin’s existence. The first massive accumulation took place in November-December 2020 that saw whales depositing a total of 1.29 billion XRP to their addresses.XRP supply into addresses holding more than 10 million native units. Source: SantimentInterestingly. the spike in XRP supply into the whale addresses coincided with a price bounce against Bitcoin. The XRP/BTC exchange rate surged by nearly 150% to as high as 3,502 satoshis between Nov. 1, 2020, and Nov. 24, 2020.XRP also strengthened against the dollar as with XRP/USD rallies by more than 250% to $0.82 in the same November period. As a result, the recent uptick in whales-led accumulation raised possibilities of a similar upside trend in the XRP market, Santiment hinted.Nonetheless, it is vital to mention that XRP’s massive boom in November 2020 came primarily in the wake of Ripple’s move to purchase $46 million worth of XRP to “support healthy markets.”XRP price holding rebound gainsThe recent bout of XRP accumulation among whales partially appeared alongside a recovery over the past weeks. XRP’s price rebounded by as much as 65% to $0.91, less than three weeks after bottoming out at $0.55 on Jan. 22, 2022. Nonetheless, as of Friday, the price had fallen back to near $0.77, suggesting that bulls reeled under the pressure of the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave in the chart below).XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewCointelegraph discussed a similar pullback setup in its analysis last week, suggesting that a selloff near the 50-week EMA could trigger an extended downside move toward the 200-week EMA (the blue wave) near $0.54. Conversely, the setup also indicated that a decisive move above 50-day EMA might push the price to its multi-month descending trendline resistance near $1.Related: XRP gains 30% after Ripple gets permission to explain ‘fair notice defense’ vs. SECThe price action on shorter-timeframe charts also suggests an imminent rally toward $1. For instance, XRP has been forming what appears to be a bull pennant setup on a four-hour chart, confirmed by an ongoing consolidation in a symmetrical triangle.XRP/USD four-hour chart featuring bull pennant setup. Source: TradingViewA basic rule of the bull pennant setup is that it prompts the price to go higher once it decisively breaks above the structure’s upper trendline, and thus eyeing levels above $1. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Fidelity analyst: Bitcoin price up-down debate ‘mostly noise,’ watch network’s Apple-esque growth

Fidelity analyst: Bitcoin price up-down debate ‘mostly noise,’ watch network’s Apple-esque growth

Uverejnil používateľ | feb 18, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) continued its decline further into the week as BTC clung to the $40,000 support level on Feb. 18. BTC price up-down debate “mostly noise” While many analysts anticipated BTC’s price to fall toward $30,000 next, mostly based on technicals, Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity Investments lambasted the downside bias, calling it “mostly noise.”Bitcoin has been in a choppy trading range for almost a year now, bouncing between 30k and 65k. The up-or-down debate continues to be a favorite hobby for many, but it’s mostly noise. For Bitcoin, the network is what matters. Let’s dig deeper. pic.twitter.com/ipWumuRSya— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) February 17, 2022Bitcoin vs. Apple stock price similaritiesThe director of Global Macro published a series of tweets late Thursday, focusing on Bitcoin’s network growth since its inception as a decentralized medium of exchange. In doing so, he compared the cryptocurrency’s network effect with that of Apple, a trillion-dollar tech giant.“Apple’s price has grown 1457x since 1996, while its price-to-sales ratio has grown 30 times,” wrote Timmer, adding: “If the growth in valuation is an exponent of the growth in sales (per Metcalfe’s Law), then price should increase as an exponent of both metrics.”Apple’s price and valuation since 1996. Source: FidelityApplying the same metrics on the Bitcoin network returned impressive growth. For instance, Fidelity found that Bitcoin’s price had surged 640,633x since its inception until the end of 2021. While its price-to-network ratio, a supposed equivalent of the price-to-sales ratio, came out to be 52, up almost 867 times in the same period. Bitcoin’s size and valuation. Source: Fidelity“If we apply Metcalfe’s Law and calculate the square of 867, we get 751,111,” noted Timmer, highlighting that it is “roughly in line with the 640,633x realized price gain.”The stark similarities in the rise of Bitcoin and Apple networks — based on their price and price-to-sales/network ratios — prompted Timmer to hint at long-term growth in the Bitcoin market. Additionally, the veteran analyst pitted demand curves of mobile phone subscriptions and internet adoption against Bitcoin to draw similar conclusions, suggesting that BTC’s price would rally above $100,000 in the future.Bitcoin vs. mobile phone and internet users’ demand model. Source: FidelityLong-term BTC setups back in focusLike Timmer, other analysts also projected the ongoing decline as corrections that typically appear in a long-term bull market.For instance, BTCfuel, an independent market analyst, shared a bullish outlook, citing a fractal from 2013. Related: Crypto ‘best place’ to store wealth during Fed rate hike: Pantera CEONotably, Bitcoin in 2022 appears to be stuck below the same moving averages as it was in 2013. And since BTC broke above the said resistance areas eight years ago, its probability of repeating the same price action this year appeared higher, as per BTCfuel.Bitcoin daily price chart 2013 vs. 2022. Source: TradingView“Resumption soon,” the analyst wrote.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin 'whales' and 'fishes' pause accumulation as markets weigh March 50bps hike odds

Bitcoin 'whales' and 'fishes' pause accumulation as markets weigh March 50bps hike odds

Uverejnil používateľ | feb 17, 2022 |

An uptick in Bitcoin (BTC) supply to whales’ addresses witnessed across January appears to be stalling midway as the price continues its intraday correction toward $42,000, the latest data from CoinMetrics shows.Whales, fishes take a break from BitcoinThe sum of Bitcoin being held in addresses whose balance was at least 1,000 BTC came to be 8.10 million BTC as of Feb. 16, almost 0.12% higher month-to-date. In comparison, the balance was 7.91 million BTC at the beginning of this year, up 2.4% year-to-date.Bitcoin supply in addresses with balance greater than 1,000 BTC. Source: CoinMetrics, MessariNotably, the accumulation behavior among Bitcoin’s richest wallets started slowing down after BTC closed above $40,000 in early February. Their supply fluctuated within the 8.09-8.10 million BTC range as Bitcoin did the same between $41,000 and $45,500, signaling that demand from whales has been subsiding inside the said trading area.A similar outlook appeared in addresses that hold less than 1 BTC, also called “fishes,” showcasing that they had halted the accumulation of Bitcoin in February as its price entered the $41,000-45,500 price range. Looks like the accumulation trend is stalling with #BTC around $44k:No breakout for the whales addresses.Plateau for the small fish.I guess everyone is cautious while waiting to see what the FOMC will do next. pic.twitter.com/Ou8w1t7U5m— ecoinometrics (@ecoinometrics) February 17, 2022 Ecoinometrics’ analyst Nick blamed the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening plans for making Bitcoin whales and fishes “cautious,” reiterating his statements from last week, wherein he warned that “if Bitcoin has greatly benefited from quantitative easing, it can also be hurt by quantitative tightening.””This is why inflation not showing any sign of slowing down is a big deal.”No “dot plot” yetOn Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes of its January meeting, revealing a group of thoroughly alarmed central bank governors looking more prepared to hike rates too much to contain inflation. As for how fast and how far the rate hikes would go, the minutes did not leave any hints.To hike or not to hike? The Fed keeps Bitcoin markets in limbo. https://t.co/O0ty3kHKc8 pic.twitter.com/R4io3NMLia— Cointelegraph Markets (@CointelegraphMT) February 17, 2022

Vasja Zupan, president of Dubai-based Matrix exchange, told Cointelegraph that the Fed fund futures market now sees a 50% possibility of a 50bps rate hike in March, a drop from the previous 63%. But the minutes themselves do not discuss a 0.5% interest rate increase anywhere.”Of course, the mixed macroeconomic outlook has left Bitcoin’s most influential investors — the whales and long-term holders — in the dark,” asserted Zupan, adding: “The top cryptocurrency has been cluelessly tailing day-to-day trends in the U.S. stock market. However, I see it as weighted and not long-term significant, especially as the Fed bosses—hopefully—shed more light on their dot-plot after the March hike.”Strong hodling sentimentResearcher Willy Woo provided a long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin, noting that its recent price declines, including the 50% drawdown from $69,000, were due to selling in the futures market, not on-chain investors.Bitcoin demand/supply among holders versus futures market. Source: Willy Woo”In the old regime of a bearish phase (see May 2021), investors would simply sell their BTC into cash,” Woo wrote in a note published Feb. 15, adding: “In the new regime, assuming the investor wants to stay in cash rather than to rotate capital into another asset like equities, it’s much more profitable to hold onto BTC while shorting the futures market.”Related: Bitcoin briefly dips below $43K as Fed says rate hike ‘soon appropriate’As Glassnode further noted, in the May-July 2021 session, investors’ de-risking in the Bitcoin futures market coincided with a sale of coins in the spot market, which was confirmed by a rise in net coin inflow to exchanges. But that is not the case in the ongoing price decline, as shown in the chart below.Bitcoin exchange net position change. Source: Glassnode”Across all exchanges we track, BTC is flowing out of reserves and into investor wallets at a rate of 42.9k BTC per month,” Glassnode wrote, adding: “This trend of net outflows has now been sustained for around 3-weeks, supporting the current price bounce from the recent $33.5k lows.”The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Terra's Mirror Protocol shows first signs of bottoming after price gains 30% in 48 hours

Terra's Mirror Protocol shows first signs of bottoming after price gains 30% in 48 hours

Uverejnil používateľ | feb 16, 2022 |

Mirror Protocol, a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol built atop the Terra blockchain, was among the biggest gainers in the last 48 hours, primarily as its native token MIR rallied by over 30% to $1.48, its highest level since Jan. 22.MIR/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingViewHas Mirror Protocol bottomed out?MIR price rose despite an absence of concrete fundamentals, a sight pretty common across crypto assets. As a result, its rally may have been purely technically-driven, especially because it originated after MIR had dropped by more than 90% in value from its May 2021 high near $13, making the token extremely oversold.IncomeSharks, an independent market analyst, called MIR’s rebound move a “no brainer,” noting that its multi-month drop had left bulls with “tighter stop-loss,” i.e., a strategy that traders apply to limit losses when the price falls below a specific price target.But the Mirror Protocol token could still be bottoming out, IncomeSharks added while citing MIR’s on-balance volume (OBV). In detail, OBV measures a running total of positive and negative volume. Therefore, the indicator rises when volume on up days is higher than the volume on down days. Conversely, OBV falls when volume on down days is higher. A rising OBV reflects positive volume pressure that can lead to higher prices. “Large green volume candles coming in near the bottom, super trend 1/2 flipping bullish while OBV is breakout out and showing strength,” tweeted IncomeSharks on Wednesday.MIR/USD four-hour price chart featuring OBV. Source: IncomeSharks, TradingViewDouble bottomMore cues for an extended rebound in the Mirror Protocol market came from a bullish reversal pattern.Notably, MIR appeared to have been forming a double bottom, a technical setup that occurs at the end of a downtrend and signals that bears, who were in control of the market so far, have been losing momentum. Notably, the pattern looks like the letter “W” due to its two-touched lows and a change in the direction from downtrend to uptrend.MIR/USD daily price chart featuring ‘double bottom’ setup. Source: TradingViewA basic tenet of the double bottom pattern is that a successful break above its upper trendline tends to send the price further upward — by as much as the maximum distance between its upper and lower levels. Thus, applying the same definition to MIR’s double bottom setup returns with $1.73 as its bullish target.Related: Mirror opens access to its blockchain blogging platform to allAdditionally, MIR’s daily relative strength index (RSI), a momentum oscillator indicator, shows that it has been treading inside a neutral territory — with a reading around 54. Therefore, the Mirror Protocol token still has room to grow unless its RSI reading reaches 70, a sell signal.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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