Autor Cointelegraph By Yashu Gola

Polygon reaches level that last time triggered a 275% MATIC price rally — will history repeat?

Polygon (MATIC) price reversed course to the upside on May 10 after testing $0.794 as its interim support, thus rising by up to 25% to $0.99. The rebound occurred a day after the token slumped over 17% to reach $0.787, its lowest level since July 2021, amid a global market crash led by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish policies.MATIC price rebounded after undergoing five days of relentless declines, attracting buyers around the same support level that had preceded a 275% bull run last year.MATIC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewA previous retest of the $0.787-level in July 2021 and the 0.786 Fib line (near $0.61) of the Fibonacci retracement graph — drawn from the $0.002-swing low to 2.86-swing high — followed up with MATIC rising to its record high of $3 by December 2021. Therefore, MATIC/USD might undergo a similar, sharp upside retracement in the coming weeks after rebounding from the same support confluence.MATIC fundamentals: then and nowHowever, a lot has changed in terms of market fundamentals between July 2021 and May 2022 that may influence MATIC traders’ behavior. For instance, MATIC’s price boom occurred last year as demand for layer-2 solutions increased due to Ethereum’s skyrocketing gas and transaction costs. As a result, popular decentralized finance (DeFI) applications, including decentralized exchange SushiSwap (SUSHI), liquidity service Curve (CRV), and lending platform Aave (AAVE), expanded their operations in the Polygon chain.The total value locked inside Polygon liquidity pools. Source: Defi Llama But 2022 has been a bad year for cryptos. The Fed’s decision to hike interest rates followed by the unwinding of their $9 trillion balance sheet has prompted investors to reduce their exposures to riskier assets. Unfortunately, the prospect of excess cash leaving the market has hurt MATIC, whose year-to-date paper returns were nearly 65% below zero as of May 10.Unfortunately, the prospect of excess cash leaving the market has hurt MATIC, whose year-to-date paper returns were nearly 65% below zero as of May 10.Related: 10-month BTC price lows spark $1B liquidation as Bitcoin eyes $35K CME futures gap”This is a risk-off across all asset classes, including crypto,” Daniel Ives, strategist at Wedbush Securities, told the Financial Times, adding that digital asset investors have “nowhere to hide.” He added:”Some investors are playing crypto like a hedge against inflation, but it’s trading like the Nasdaq’s Siamese twin.”Silver lining amid chaos: MetaOn May 9, Polygon CEO Ryan Watt announced that they are partnering with Meta to create a nonfungible token (NFT) platform for Facebook and Instagram. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg also confirmed that they have been “testing digital collectibles for creators and collectors to showcase NFTs on Instagram,” adding that similar features would come to Facebook soon. The hype could help MATIC form a strong price floor.Massive.— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 9, 2022But from a technical perspective, MATIC risks bearish continuation toward $0.615 in May. MATIC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewMeanwhile, a bullish confirmation looks less likely to appear unless the token reclaims its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave) near $1.37 as support.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Ethereum rises vs. Bitcoin despite crypto market rout — will ETH/BTC gain 50% by June?

Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH) has grown stronger against its rival for the top position — Bitcoin (BTC) — despite an ongoing crypto market rout. But can the ETH/BTC pair continue to rally in the coming months? Let’s look at the charts.Ethereum pares YTD losses vs. Bitcoin ETH/BTC gained 5.5% between the May 9 low of 0.0720 and the May 10 high of 0.0759. ETH also rebounded by almost 9.75% against the U.S. dollar, and Bitcoin underwent a similar upside retracement in the same period.ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingViewThe gains across the pairs appeared after a brutal selloff witnessed across the past 24 hours. The drop sent Ether to its worst levels since January 2022 and Bitcoin below $30,00 for the first time since July 2021. The situation was similar in the traditional markets, with the U.S. benchmark index, S&P 500 (SPX), slumping 3.2% to its lowest level in 2022.On the other hand, the dollar reached its two-decade high, reinstating its “safe-haven” status in times of market turmoil. Moreover, the cryptocurrency equivalent USD-pegged stablecoins witnessed a similar surge in demand. $USDT Exchange Outflow Volume (7d MA) just reached a 3-month high of 34,010,868.697 USDTView metric:https://t.co/D90kNIpU2J pic.twitter.com/Xzb5DEXaqs— glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) May 10, 2022ETH price technicals hint at breakoutETH/BTC’s gains brought its close to testing its multi-month horizontal trendline as resistance, which appears to constitute an “ascending triangle” pattern.Ascending triangles are typically trend continuation patterns, meaning they send the price in the direction of its previous trend. ETH/BTC weekly price chart featuring ‘ascending triangle’ breakout. Source: TradingViewAs a rule of technical analysis, a decisive breakout above the triangle’s upper horizontal trendline shifts traders’ profit target to a length equal to the structure’s maximum height. ETH/BTC eyes a similar breakout move above its horizontal trendline resistance near 0.110 BTC, up over 50% from May 10’s price. Related: Analyst claims that exchanges sell your Bitcoin, crypto trading platforms respondConversely, an upside rejection near the horizontal trendline could have ETH/BTC pursue a pullback move towards the triangle’s rising lower trendline, also coinciding with its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave) near 0.067. That is down 11.25% from May 10’s price.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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SHIB price eyes 30% drop with Shiba Inu's massive triangle breakdown underway

Shiba Inu (SHIB) price dropped by over 10% to $0.00001641 on May 9 amid a broader crypto market decline. This year, SHIB’s returns were 50% below zero, one of the worst performances by a top-ranking cryptocurrency in 2022.Last week, luxury fashion brand Gucci named Shiba Inu in the list of tokens it would accept for payments in five of its U.S.-based stores. Nonetheless, the bulls have ignored the major adoption news as SHIB price continues to fall under macro and technical pressures.SHIB/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingViewShiba Inu triangle breakdownThe prospect of Shiba Inu facing more yearly losses increases as it stays on the path toward its “symmetrical triangle” breakdown target near $0.00001197.The level, which sits around 30% below today’s price, results from a technical rule that measures symmetrical triangles’ profit targets by adding the maximum distance between the structure’s upper and lower trendline to the breakout/breakdown point. SHIB/USD weekly price chart featuring ‘symmetrical triangle’ breakout. Source: TradingViewNevertheless, SHIB’s shorter-timeframe charts reflects an interim bullish bias.Short-term 20% bounce in play SHIB has dropped near the red horizontal line near $0.00001667, which has served as an accumulation zone for traders three times since October 2021. For instance, Shiba Inu had rallied by over 100% two weeks after testing the $0.0000167-level as support in January 2022.The level also coincides with the lower trendline of the descending parallel channel, as shown in the chart below. As a result of this confluence, SHIB eyes a price rebound, with the channel’s upper trendline near $0.00002000 acting as the interim upside target for the May-June period.SHIB/USD daily price chart featuring descending parallel channel setup. Source: TradingViewMeanwhile, SHIB’s daily relative strength index (RSI) has dipped below 30, an oversold territory that could further catalyze a short-term rebound.Nonetheless, macroeconomic catalysts — primarily a hawkish Federal Reserve — continue to pose downside risks for the crypto market, including SHIB. So price rallies are likely to sell off at higher levels, thus keeping SHIB on track toward its triangle breakdown target near $0.00001197.Bright future promisedShiba Inu’s developer Shytoshi Kusama offered a bright outlook for the project in what appeared to be an effort to pent-up the market demand for SHIB tokens.Related: Shiba Inu has a new use case — Buying land in SHIB: The MetaverseThe developer noted that Playside, an Australia-based video gaming firm, would feature Shiba Inu-themed nonfungible tokens (NFT) — called Shiboshi — on their upcoming metaverse game of the same name. He also noted that Shiba Inu would release the documentation of their layer-2 blockchain, Shibarium, by “this month or next.”I updated the Shiboshi chat recently but I’m sure we will be seeing more from Playside soon as we near the final triad of production.— Shytoshi Kusama™ (@ShytoshiKusama) May 7, 2022The disclosures came after an Ethereum whale bought 74 billion SHIB (worth $1.23 million at press time).The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Monero avoids crypto market rout, but XMR price still risks 20% drop by June

Monero (XMR) has shown a surprising resilience against the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policies that pushed the prices of most of its crypto rivals — including the top dog Bitcoin (BTC) — lower last week. XMR’s price closed the previous week 2.37% higher at $217, data from Binance shows. In comparison, BTC, which typically influences the broader crypto market, finished the week down 11.55%. The second-largest crypto, Ether (ETH), also plunged 11% in the same period.XMR/USD vs. BTC/USD vs. ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewWhile the crypto market wiped off $163.25 billion from its valuation last week, down nearly 9%, Monero’s market cap increased by $87.7 million, suggesting that many traders decided to seek safety in this privacy-focused coin. XMR near critical supportMonero started the new week with a selloff, with XMR plunging by nearly 4% to around $208 on May 9.The decline brought the token near its key support level — the 50-week exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave in the chart below) near $214. The wave also coincides with another price floor — the 0.618 Fib line of the Fibonacci retracement graph drawn from the $38-swing low to the $491-swing low.XMR/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewInterestingly, XMR’s price drop is part of a pullback move that began April 21 from about $290. In turn, the reversal to the downside surfaced amid a falling wedge breakout whose upside target comes to be around $490.  That could result in either of these two outcomes: XMR breaks below its support confluence around $214 to test the wedge’s upper trendline as support (which also coincides with the token’s 200-week EMA near $161.50); OR the token rebounds from the support confluence and continue its move towards the wedge’s technical upside target near $490.The overall crypto market trend looks biased towards bears in a higher interest rate environment. This, coupled with Monero’s erratic but consistent positive correlation with Bitcoin, could eventually weigh XMR lower, resulting in a decline toward the wedge’s top around $160 in Q2, down about 20% from today’s price. XMR’s correlation with Bitcoin. Source: TradingViewStrong XMR fundamentalsXMR’s bearish setup could see a period of price spikes as Monero inches closer to its tentative hard fork, scheduled for July 16.Related: Making crypto conventional by improving crypto crime investigations worldwideA testnet version of the same technical upgrade expects to come out on May 16, according to Monero’s GitHub post. The team behind the project has confirmed that the hard fork would improve Monero’s network security while cutting fees. #Monero has a network upgrade (hardfork) on July 16th 2022 at block 2668888.Privacy and performance will be improved! The update includes: Ring sizes will increase from 11 to 16 View tags to speedup wallet/node syncMultisig fixesBulletproof++more!#xmr $xmr pic.twitter.com/jZ5ouk1uqo— John Foss (@johnfoss69) April 17, 2022Meanwhile, demand for Monero expects to rise higher in 2022 due to its promise of providing anonymity. For instance, XMR emerged as a choice of crypto among ransomware attackers, with a CipherTrade study showing a 500% increase in the token’s usage in 2021. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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LUNA drops 20% in a day as whale dumps Terra's UST stablecoin — selloff risks ahead?

Terra (LUNA) has plunged significantly after witnessing a FUD attack on its native stablecoin TerraUSD (UST).The LUNA/USD pair dropped 20% between May 7 and May 8, hitting $61, its worst level in three months, after a whale mass-dumped $285 million worth of UST. As a result of this selloff, UST briefly lost its U.S. dollar peg, falling to as low as $0.98.UST daily price chart. Source: TradingViewExcessive LUNA supplyLUNA serves as a collateral asset to maintain UST’s dollar peg, according to Terra’s elastic monetary policy. Therefore, when the value of UST is above $1, the Terra protocol incentivizes users to burn LUNA and mint UST. Conversely, when UST’s price drops below $1, the protocol rewards users for burning UST and minting LUNA.Therefore, during UST supply reduction, LUNA’s valuation should decrease. Similarly, when UST’s supply expands, LUNA’s valuation increases, notes Will Comyns, a researcher at Messari.The chart below shows an ongoing downtrend in the daily UST supply, coinciding with a relative increase in daily LUNA supply. On May 8, UST’s market underwent contraction for the first time in two months, dropping by 28.1 million below zero. Simultaneously, LUNA’s supply expanded by over 436.75 million above zero.Daily change in LUNA and UST supply. Source: SmartStake.ioThe excessive daily supply against what appears to be a lowering or stable market demand may have pushed LUNA’s price lower.More pain for Terra ahead?Terra’s ongoing price decline prompted LUNA to retest a support confluence consisting of its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $56 and a multi-month upward sloping trendline.Interestingly, the ascending trendline constitutes a rising wedge pattern in conjugation with another upward trending line above. Rising wedges are bearish reversal setups, so their occurrence on Terra’s weekly chart suggests more downside is probable.LUNA/USD weekly price chart featuring ‘rising wedge’ setup. Source: TradingViewAs a rule of technical analysis, a rising wedge breakdown pushes the price lower by as much as the maximum distance between the structure’s upper and lower trendline. Related: Luna Foundation Guard acquires additional 37,863 BTC as part of reserve strategyThus, if LUNA breaks below its wedge from its current support confluence, accompanied by an increase in volumes, its price would risk falling to around $22.50, down over 60% from today’s price.Conversely, a rebound from the support confluence would have LUNA positioned for a run-up toward the wedge’s upper trendline — above $130, a new record high.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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