Autor Cointelegraph By Yashu Gola

XRP (XRP) has rallied more than 30% in the last three months, and fresh technical and on-chain signals suggest the XRP/USD pair may have more upside ahead.XRP/USD daily chart. Source: TradingViewKey takeaways:Exchange outflows, positive whale flows and strong ETF demand raise XRP’s bullish outlook.A wedge setup sees the price rising roughly 30% by June.Nearly 35 million XRP in exchange outflows boost upside caseAs of Saturday, XRP Ledger (XRPL) had recorded nearly 35 million XRP in exchange outflows in the last 24 hours, logging its sixth-largest daily outflow of the year, according to Santiment.Large exchange outflows typically suggest investors are moving tokens into private wallets or custody, reducing the amount of XRP immediately available for sale. Earlier this year, these spikes preceded modest rallies in the XRP price.XRP Ledger exchange outflows versus XRP price. Source: SantimentIn March, a similar spike in exchange outflows preceded a roughly 20% rebound in XRP. February’s outflow surge was followed by an even stronger move, with XRP rising about 48&–50%.Those precedents strengthen the view that the latest withdrawal spike may lead to higher XRP prices in May.Also, US-based spot XRP ETFs have witnessed three consecutive weeks of net inflows, totaling about $82.88 million as of Saturday, according to SoSoValue data. The streak pushed the total assets under management to $1.1 billion.XRP ETF weekly net flows. Source: SoSoValueThis indicates an increased institutional appetite for XRP products.Positive whale flows reinforce upside sentimentXRP whale flows have also flipped positive, according to CryptoQuant data, suggesting larger wallets are now accumulating rather than distributing.The 90-day moving average of XRPL whale flows has moved back above zero after spending much of early 2026 in negative territory.XRP whale flow 30DMA. Source: CryptoQuantHistorically, positive whale-flow regimes have preceded stronger XRP price trends, including the May–July 2025 rally.The shift supports the broader accumulation narrative already visible in exchange outflows and ETF inflows.XRP wedge setup hints at 30% rally nextXRP’s technical structure supports the upside case.The XRP/USD pair has spent the past two years inside a falling wedge, defined by two downward-sloping, converging trend lines. Its April rebound from the lower trend line support now raises the odds of a move toward the upper boundary.XRP/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingViewThat target zone aligns with the 50-week EMA and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near $1.87–$1.89, about 30% above current levels, by June.Related: XRP holders back in profit as price eyes potential 55% breakoutConversely, a decisive break below the wedge’s lower trend line risks invalidating the bullish narrative altogether.It may instead raise the odds of the price declining toward the $0.98 mark, aligning with the wedge’s apex point and the 0.786 Fib line.

Ethereum’s record 32.33% staking ratio is shrinking liquid supply, reducing sell pressure and potentially supporting an ETH price recovery over time.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a preferred Wall Street metric to measure investor sentiment and market risk, dropped by over 45% in under a month. For Bitcoin (BTC), this could be a significant bullish signal.VIX daily performance chart. Source: TradingViewKey takeaways:Bitcoin may rise toward $82,700 if VIX keeps underperforming.BTC’s upside outlook gets a boost from Strategy’s BTC buying spree.Weakening VIX hints at BTC rising to $82,700Often called Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” the VIX tracks how much volatility traders expect in the S&P 500 index over the next 30 days.When the index rises, it usually signals rising stress and risk aversion across markets. When it falls, it suggests investors are becoming more comfortable owning riskier assets such as stocks and crypto.History suggests that a VIX drop of 40% or more is bullish for Bitcoin.For instance, BTC rallied approximately 40% during April 2025–May 2025, with its gains aligning with the VIX’s 70% dip.BTC/USD and VIX daily chart. Source: TradingViewSimilarly, a 46% VIX drop during the October–November 2025 period coincided with a 12% BTC gain.Even the recent 42%–47% VIX decline has coincided with an 8%–9% BTC price rebound, improving the bullish backdrop for Bitcoin in the coming days.BTC’s next upside target appears to be around the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA, the blue line) at around $82,700 by early May.What happens to Bitcoin if VIX starts rising?A rising VIX is typically bearish for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, that correlation broke briefly in March, according to a chart highlighted by wealth management firm Swissblock.BTC and VIX rose in tandem during the US–Iran escalation in March. In comparison, the broader risk market, including US equities, underperformed.Bitcoin and VIX performance comparison. Source: SwissblockOne potential catalyst behind Bitcoin’s resilience may have been Strategy’s aggressive BTC buying, which has absorbed the equivalent to nearly 30 weeks of new coin supply since March.Related: Saylor teases ‘bigger’ BTC buy days after floating semi-monthly dividends“Bitcoin has already shown inherent strength in a very complex environment”, Swissblock said, adding:“Do not be surprised if it starts to outperform on its own again.”Nonetheless, any slowdown in Strategy’s buying could weaken Bitcoin’s support during periods of rising VIX, increasing the risk of downside.Multiple analyses suggest BTC may drop below $50,000 in 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC) rose 2.66% to around $75,800 on Monday after Strategy disclosed a $2.54 billion purchase, the company’s third biggest ever, and equivalent to about 2.5 months of new BTC supply.However, several indicators suggest the rally may fizzle out.BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingViewKey takeaways:Poor macro conditions can spark BTC price pullback if Strategy’s buying slows.Bitcoin’s technical setup hints at a potential dip toward $67,000–$69,000.Strategy may halt BTC purchases this weekStrategy funded most of its latest 34,164 BTC purchase through its preferred stock, Stretch (STRC), which generated over $2.17 billion through at-the-market share sales between April 13 and April 19.Source: Strategy’s SEC FilingsThat accounted for roughly 86% of the total amount spent, while sales of its Class A common stock, MSTR, added another $366 million.STRC lets Strategy raise cash for Bitcoin when it trades at or above $100. Stronger prices mean easier fundraising and more BTC buying. In 2026, STRC enabled the purchases of 77,000 BTC, ten times more than all the ETFs combined, per River data.Bitcoin ownership YTD change. Source: RiverBut STRC has been trading below its $100 par value since April 15, which may limit Strategy’s ability to keep raising cash to purchase more Bitcoin this week.STRC weekly estimates. Source: STRC.LIVEIn past episodes, pauses in Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases have coincided with BTC price slumps.For instance, on average, BTC’s price has dipped by roughly 30% when STRC traded below its $100 par value.BTC/USD vs. STRC daily performance chart. Source: TradingViewA 30% dip will take Bitcoin’s price to $53,000 when measured from current levels.Source: XThe halt appears alongside weakening risk sentiment, with US stock indexes falling amid doubts over the US–Iran peace deal.Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones daily performance charts. Source: TradingViewUS President Donald Trump said it was “highly unlikely” he would extend the two-week truce if no agreement is reached before it expires on Wednesday.Any signs of an extended Middle East conflict may weigh on BTC’s prices.BTC flag pullback hints at $67,000–$69,000Bitcoin’s current chart structure shows classic flag consolidation, with price now drifting toward the pattern’s lower boundary. This setup raises the risk of a pullback toward the $67,000–$69,000 region in April, if support gives way.BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingViewAt the same time, downside may remain limited as the 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) EMAs continue to act as dynamic support levels. Holding above these averages would signal underlying demand, increasing the chances of a rebound.Related: Adam Back says current demand is ‘almost’ enough to send Bitcoin to $1MIf that happens, BTC could attempt a breakout above the flag’s upper trend line, effectively invalidating the bearish setup.Such a move would open the door for a recovery toward the 200-day EMA (blue), currently near $82,750.As Cointelegraph reported, breaking the resistance near $78,000 is now a top priority for the bulls.

RavenDAO’s RAVE token lost over 98% of its value over the weekend, and the hourly chart now warns of another massive drop in the coming days.Key takeaways:RAVE chart hints at 50%-plus drop nextOn the hourly chart, RAVE continues to trade inside a descending channel, with lower highs and lower lows forming between two downward-sloping trend lines.As of Monday, the spot price was retreating after testing the channel’s upper boundary, a sign that sellers remain active on rallies. If that rejection holds, RAVE could slide toward the channel’s lower trend line in the near term.RAVE/USD hourly chart. TradingViewA Fibonacci extension drawn from the latest bounce at the lower boundary to the recent pullback from the upper boundary points to the 1.618 extension as the next bearish objective.That level comes in near $0.30, implying a further 55%–58% decline from current prices in April or by May.Notably, the same setup correctly anticipated Sunday’s drop toward $0.49, reinforcing the channel’s relevance.RAVE/USD daily chart. Source: TradingViewMeanwhile, the 20-hour exponential moving average at $0.96 and the 1.0 Fib line at $0.94 continue to cap upside attempts. Unless the bulls reclaim these levels decisively, the broader bias remains tilted to the downside.Market manipulation claims add to RAVE risksRAVE’s technical weakness is unfolding alongside mounting allegations of market manipulation, with market watchers comparing it to the LUNA and WAVES pump-and-dumps from 2022.Onchain investigator ZachXBT described the token’s explosive rally and subsequent collapse as a “blatant” pump-and-dump, allegedly orchestrated across major exchanges including Binance, Bitget and Gate.io.Source: ZachXBTHe flagged roughly 23 million RAVE tokens (worth around $23 million) moving from a team-linked multisig wallet to Bitget deposit addresses shortly before a 40% flash crash, and has since maintained a $25,000 bounty for whistleblowers.RaveDAO has denied any involvement.Related: FOMO, lax rules are fueling the crypto crime supercycleStill, ZachXBT has doubled down on his claims, arguing that over 90% of the token’s supply may be controlled by insiders, raising concerns about liquidity concentration and price control.Source: XA few days ago, RaveDAO revealed plans to sell portions of unlocked tokens to fund operations, marketing and hiring. The team said it is considering price- or performance-based lock mechanisms to better align incentives, adding that “building a movement requires resources.”