Autor Cointelegraph By Yashu Gola

Boom or bust? Is there a way for Bitcoin price to hit $100K in 2022?

The internet is filled with Bitcoin (BTC) price forecasts. For example, some analysts believe that the flagship crypto will hit $1 million per coin in the next 10 years, while others think BTC price will eventually drop to zero.Without dwelling on predictions that are five or more years ahead of us, let us focus on what Bitcoin could do, say, in the next six months? Again, the forecasts vary drastically. For instance, Antoni Trenchev, the founder of Nexo Finance, sees Bitcoin price hitting $100,000 by mid-2022.On the other end of the spectrum is Sussex University professor Carol Alexander, who thinks Bitcoin price could drop to as low as $10,000, thereby wiping out all the gains it had made in 2021.Bitcoin has been trending almost in the middle of these two extremely far predictions and at press time the cost to purchase one BTC is close to $36,500 at Coinbase.BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewBitcoin’s circulation will increase on an average of 6.25 BTC per 10 minutes until the next halving in early 2024. This means miners will produce about 900 BTC every day. As a result, by the end of June 2022, there will be a total of 162,900 BTC created into the year.This would push the total Bitcoin supply in circulation to about 19.078 million BTC. If BTC price is $100,000 by then, its total market capitalization would be nearly $2 trillion, up 128.50% from the year’s opening valuation near $875 billion.Conversely, a drop to $10,000 would push the Bitcoin market capitalization of the total circulated tokens down to over $190 billion, down $685 billion, or about 78%, from this year’s open.So the biggest question that comes to mind after looking at these mind-boggling predictions is whether it is even possible for Bitcoin to move violently towards either of the targets mentioned above. In my opinion, the answer is a BIG YES, mainly because BTC price has been notoriously volatile in the past.Bitcoin quarterly returns. Source: CoinglassOne question to consider is whether or not investors are ready to inject almost a trillion dollars into the Bitcoin market across the next six months? Trenchev believes they may because of the “cheap money” factor.Sovereign currency devaluation remains a catalystInvestors will have noticed that the U.S. dollar’s valuation has been recovering lately. A popular economic indicator, dubbed as the “U.S. dollar index,” measures the greenback’s strength against a weighted basket of six foreign currencies — the Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), Pound Sterling (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Swedish Krona (SEK), and Swiss Franc (CHF) — surged over 7% to 96.22 last year.U.S. dollar index weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewIt’s also worth noticing that the dollar’s valuation has surged only against fiat currencies, but against commodities, the greenback has been losing battle after battle. For instance, a recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report indicates that consumers paid 7% higher for everyday items in December 2021 than they did 12 months ago. In other words, the inflation in the world’s largest economy has risen to the levels never seen before 1982.This shows the dollar is nothing but the best weak boxer in a ring competing with the six weakest boxers. Sure, the greenback has been winning rounds against them all, but it has also been running away from the real competition. Speaking of competition, let’s compare its value against a scarcer asset, gold.Fiat currencies versus Gold since 1900. Source: VOIMAThe image above also shows that almost all the fiat currencies have lost their sheen against gold. The big elephant in the room is inflation, which benefiting investors that have been hoarding the precious metal — or any hard money equivalent — against the current bearish trend in currencies like the dollar.Currently, there is about $40 trillion circulating across markets, which includes all the physical money and the money deposited in savings and checking accounts. Meanwhile, investments, derivatives and cryptocurrencies are above $1.3 quadrillion.So yes, there are enough greenbacks available in the market to pump the Bitcoin market by another trillion dollars, such that its cost per unit rises to $100,000 in the next six months.Why hasn’t BTC hit $100,000 already?Before even entertaining that argument, it is wiser to look at Bitcoin’s market cap performance over the years.BTC/USD six-month market cap chart featuring $100B+ in rallies. Source: TradingViewIn the six-month timeframe chart above, one can see that there has not been a single instance wherein the Bitcoin market capitalization had risen by over $1 trillion. Similarly, there also has not been a single case where Bitcoin’s market valuation dropped by more than $190 billion in six months, as required in the event of a BTC price drop to $10,000.Despite not rising or falling drastically, the Bitcoin market — as per historical data — attracts more capital in that it spits out, indicating why its price per unit has rallied by more than 14,250% to date since January 2014.Now, returning to the “why-it-has-not-happened” argument, there seems to be only one answer: uncertainty. And uncertainty has many branches, ranging from regulatory troubles to fears that the Bitcoin market may need a correction after rallying for almost two years in a row.The Fed’s “taper tantrum” is impacting investor confidenceThe most commonly discussed reason for Bitcoin’s recent drop from $69,000 to $34,000 is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to end its $120 billion a month asset purchasing program sooner than anticipated. This is expected to be followed by at least three interest rates hikes from their current near-zero levels.These loose monetary policies ended up injecting about $6.5 trillion since the coronavirus-induced global market crash in March 2020. As a result of the excess liquidity, the dollar’s value dropped while riskier assets, including Bitcoin, became ballistically bullish. According to Crossborder Captial founder Micheal Howell, the excess funds in the market ‘had to go somewhere.’M2 money supply weekly chart. Source: TradingViewAs the Fed unwinds its quantitative easing policy to tame inflation, it effectively removes the excess dollars from the market. And as the markets — hypothetically — run out of cash, they raise it by selling their most profitable investments, be it stock, real estate, Rolex watches or crypto.Therefore, the next six months could turn out to be a seesaw between those who need cash and those who don’t. Inflation led by the dollar devaluation could keep many investors from selling their assets, including Bitcoin. But with the Fed switching off its liquidity plug, crypto markets could face difficulties in attracting new money.This leaves Bitcoin with investors and firms that have excess cash in their treasuries and have been looking to deploy them into easily liquefiable assets. So far, Bitcoin has attracted big names like Tesla, Square, MicroStrategy, and others. So naturally, it would take at least a popular Wall Street firm’s willingness to add Bitcoin to its treasury to enable BTC’s push toward $100,000.Waiting on the retail boomMeanwhile, as inflation creeps into people’s everyday lives, their likelihood of adopting hard assets to protect their savings could also mean a boon for the Bitcoin market. For instance, BTC’s climb to $69,000 last year coincided with an unprecedented spike in retail interest, per a Grayscale Investment report.Related: Retail is pushing the Bitcoin price up, says Ledger CEOThe U.S. firm surveyed 1,000 investors and found that 59% were interested in investing in Bitcoin. Meanwhile, 55% said they had purchased the assets between December 2020 and December 2021.Bitcoin addresses with a non-zero BTC balance. Source: GlassnodeWhether boom or bust, here’s what needs to happenIf, Bitcoin were to reach $100,000 by the end of June 2022, here’s what would need to happen. The M2 money supply remains at an all-time high.The planned interest rate hikes fail to keep inflation below the Fed’s 2% target.The number of non-zero Bitcoin wallets continues to rise to new record highs.More companies add BTC to their treasuries.Meanwhile, Bitcoin could crash to $10,000 if:Long-term investors decide to dump Bitcoin to raise cash.Regulatory issues and a sharp correction in equities prices weighs on crypto pricing.Some unforeseen market manipulation or black swan event tanks BTC price like the March 2020 flash crash.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bearish chart pattern hints at $70 Solana (SOL) price before a possible oversold bounce

Solana (SOL) price may fall to $70 a token in the coming weeks as a head and shoulders setup emerged on the daily timeframe and possibly points toward a 45%+ decline.The chart below shows that SOL price rallied to nearly $217 in September 2021, dropped to a support level near $134 and then moved to establish a new record high of $260 in November 2021. Earlier this week, the price fell back to test the same $134-support level before breaking to a 2022 low at $87.73.SOL/USD weekly price chart featuring head and shoulders setup. Source: TradingViewThis phase of price action appears to have formed a head and shoulders setup, a bearish reversal pattern containing three consecutive peaks, with the middle one around $257 (called the “head”) coming out to be higher than the other two around the $200 to $210 (left and right shoulders). Meanwhile, SOL’s three peaks have stood atop a common support level at $134, called the “neckline.” A fall below it signals an extended downtrend to the level at length equal to the maximum distance between the head and the neckline. In SOL’s case, the distance is around $137, which puts its head and shoulders price target at nearly $170.The trend so farThe bearish outlook came as SOL price dropped by more than 22% this week and currently the altcoin is around 55% from its record high, much in line with other large-cap digital assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). BTC/USD vs. ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewAt the center of the ongoing crypto market decline is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to unwind its $120 billion a month asset purchasing program followed by three or more interest rate hikes spread throughout 2022. The central bank’s loose monetary policies had assisted in pumping the crypto market’s valuation from $128 billion since March 2020 to as high as $3 trillion in Nov. 2021. Therefore, the evidence of tapering has been influencing investors to limit their exposure in over-pumped markets, including Solana, which had gained nearly 12,500% since March 2020.As a result, if the crypto market continues declining in the sessions ahead, SOL will also be at risk of validating its head and shoulders setup.SOL’s short term outlookWhile SOL’s longer timeframe chart leans toward a prolonged bearish setup, its short-term outlook looks comparatively bullish. Related: Bitcoin dumps to hit six-month lows near $38KSOL/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingViewThat is primarily due to two factors. First, SOL price has fallen to a critical support level of $116 that was instrumental in limiting its downside attempts in September 2021. And second, its daily relative strength index (RSI) dropped to below 30 — a classic buy signal.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Cardano goes ‘full send’ with a 50% ADA rally ahead of SundaeSwap launch

Cardano (ADA) traded within striking distance of its three-week high  at the start of this week, leading some investors to suggest that a trend reversal was in order. In reality, the bullish momentum is primarily connected to an anticipation of the upcoming decentralized exchange (DEX) called SundaeSwap.ADA price rose by nearly 12% on Jan.17 to reach an intraday high of $1.60, a day after SundaeSwap announced the launch of its “fully-functional beta decentralized exchange (DEX).” Nonetheless, the upside swing also came as a part of a wider rebound trend wherein ADA jumped by almost 50% in just seven days.ADA/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingViewIn detail, ADA’s rebound began almost in sync with similar retracement moves across the cryptocurrency market. That included Bitcoin (BTC), which sharply reversed its trend on Jan. 10 after its price dipped to as low as $39,650. At press time, BTC price trades at $41,500.ADA initially tailed the crypto market’s reversal, but later continued its upside momentum on its own after taking cues from the euphoria surrounding the SundaeSwap DEX launch on Jan. 20. As a result, ADA emerged as one of the best performers among the top-ten cryptocurrencies based on a 24-hour adjusted timeframe.Top 10 cryptocurrencies in the past 48 hours. Source: MessariWhat makes SundaeSwap bullish for ADA?SundaeSwap’s official DEX launch announcement included evidence of greater demand for ADA tokens in the future and this is typically a bullish signal for investors.The moment we’ve all been waiting for has finally come!We’re excited and proud to share that SundaeSwap and the ISO will be launching on the evening of Thursday, January 20th (EST)! Check out the article below! https://t.co/8oDYU6i3k9 pic.twitter.com/upgNZx2xH2— SundaeSwap Labs (@SundaeSwap) January 15, 2022The DEX platform also introduced its native SUNDAE token and discussed three ways to distribute it among users: via an initial stake offering (ISO) round, yield farming and direct exchange-based conversion. Discussing the ISO round, SundaeSwap explained that it would distribute 5% of the total SUNDAE supply via five epochs. Each epoch represents a five-day reward cycle wherein users delegate their ADA tokens into a stake pool.”If you want to make sure you qualify for all five ISO reward rounds, you must have ADA staked with eligible SPOs [Stake Pool Operators] before 21:45 UTC on January 25,” the DEX’s announcement read, adding:”Your reward will be calculated based on the snapshot taken at that time, and at the same time at each subsequent epoch boundary.”Meanwhile, the yield farming program saw SundaeSwap adding four ADA-based liquidity pools: SUNDAE/ADA, LQ/ADA, WMT/ADA and CARDS/ADA. The DEX also allocated 500,000 SUNDAE per day from January through June.ADA to $2?The SundaeSwap-led bounce pushed ADA toward its 100-day exponential moving average (100-day EMA; the blue wave) near $1.57.ADA/USD daily price chart featuring 100-day EMA resistance. Source: TradingViewAdditional bullish cues have also been coming from the anticipated launch of Pavio, Cardano’s first metaverse undertaking.Pavio is a Decentraland-like virtual land startup with some 100,000 land parcels, each being minted as a unique nonfungible token (NFT) with coordinates. The advent of the Metaverse in the crypto sector in the past months and Cardano’s involvement in it may boost demand for ADA further.Related: Meta poaches staff from Microsoft and Apple for metaverse plansThis raises the possibility for Cardano to close above its 100-day EMA resistance wave, thus shifting the next upside target toward the 200-day EMA near $2.Conversely, risks of an overall crypto market crash led by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tapering programs this year could spoil ADA’s bullish setup to an extent. “While ADA is far from its peak, the prospect of obtaining more scalability as part of its 2022 roadmap explains why investors appear to be betting big on Cardano. This point was also noted by Liam Bussel, the chief marketing officer of Cardano-native DEX WingRiders in a statement to Cointelegraph.Bussel said,”In a world characterized by high performance and novel use cases, Cardano will be able to keep up and lead the pack. As a result, a weekly closing above $1.80 is likely, barring any last-minute profiteering by sellers.”The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Dogecoin leaps 25% after Musk announces DOGE payments for Tesla merch

Dogecoin (DOGE) prices rose substantially on Jan. 14 as Elon Musk announced that Tesla would start accepting it as payment for merchandise. Tesla merch buyable with Dogecoin— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 14, 2022After the announcement, DOGE price jumped nearly 13%, hitting a 30-day high of $0.2150. Its upside move came as a part of a larger intraday rally that already was taking place before Musk’s Dogecoin tweet went viral. The DOGE price went up by over 25% on Jan. 14 before correcting lower to $0.1986 on profit-taking.DOGE/USD hourly price chart. Source: TradingViewBetter than BitcoinTesla’s integration of a DOGE payment option on its online shopping portal came almost a month after Musk shared his willingness to accept the cryptocurrency as payment on a test basis.At the center stage of Musk’s love for DOGE was its “better-than-Bitcoin” features, primarily as a payment option due to its lower electricity consumption. In excerpts from Musk’s statements to Time Magazine, he explained that:”Fundamentally, Bitcoin is not a good substitute for transactional currency. Even though it was created as a silly joke, Dogecoin is better suited for transactions.”The billionaire entrepreneur further stressed that Bitcoin’s cost per transaction is high while its transactional volume is low compared to DOGE. As a result, Bitcoin could be well off being a store-of-value asset. On the other hand, DOGE could keep on encouraging people to spend.What’s next for DOGE?The latest round of buying in the Dogecoin market somewhat subsided as DOGE tested a multi-month resistance trendline for a topside breakout.In detail, DOGE price rally was rammed into a descending trendline resistance that had been capping its upside attempts since May 2021. On Jan. 14, the trendline again became instrumental in sending DOGE from its intraday top of $0.2150 to $0.1958, as shown in the chart below.DOGE/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingViewMeanwhile, the Dogecoin’s 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the orange wave) also played a key role in limiting its gains on Jan. 14. Together, the resistance confluence hinted that DOGE price may pull back from its ongoing uptrend in the coming sessions. Related: Dogecoin creator slams Mozilla for pausing crypto donationsShould this happen, the token will look poised to test its 50-day EMA (the velvet wave) as support, with the possibility to extend its correction towards $0.1367 due to its recent history as support.DOGE/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingViewConversely, a decisive breakout above the descending trendline resistance and the 200-day EMA could have traders eye $0.30 as their next upside target in the Dogecoin market. The area surrounding the $0.30-level had earlier served as resistance.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Shiba Inu (SHIB) fetches 30% gain on Robinhood listing rumor and bullish chart pattern

Shiba Inu (SHIB) seems to be preparing for a bullish breakout as a falling wedge pattern begins to form.The price of SHIB has been trending lower inside an area defined by two contracting trendlines while accompanying a decline in trading volume. That shows that investors have been less concerned about the downtrend.  As a result, falling wedges typically provide an ideal springboard for an upside break once the price closes above the structure’s upper trendline. On Thursday, SHIB showed signs of following a similar topside break.SHIB/USDT daily price chart featuring a falling wedge. Source: Fiery Trading Notably, the token briefly closed above the falling wedge’s upper trendline, hitting an intraday high of $0.00003290. The upside move raised anticipation that SHIB would continue its trend higher in the coming sessions, with Fiery Trading analysts noting that an ongoing bullish retracement across the crypto market would further boost the altcoin’s upside bias.The analysts said,”With the entirety of the crypto market seeing strong bullish moves, it’s to be expected that SHIBA will follow. This token is currently trading near the top resistance of the pattern so that a breakout might occur soon. Look for a daily close above the resistance.”The next upside target for SHIBA decisive move above the falling wedge’s upper trendline could have traders eye for a bullish confirmation near $0.00003929. Simply put, if the price of SHIB breaks above $0.00003929, a previous level of resistance, traders may end up placing upside bets toward the level that comes at a distance equal to the maximum gap between the upper and lower trendline ($0.00004240). SHIB/USDT daily price chart featuring a falling wedge setup. Source: TradingViewAs a result, the potential falling wedge breakout could put the price of SHIB en route to $0.00008026, as shown in the chart above. Conversely, a pullback move from the wedge’s upper trendline could have SHIB retest the structure’s lower trendline around $0.00002350 support.Potential Robinhood listing backs the current rallySHIB’s bullish setup emerged primarily after it rebounded by nearly 30% in three days.At the core of SHIB’s sharp retracement were a few fundamental catalysts. These include speculation about the token’s listing on Robinhood, a zero-commission trading app with over $14 million in average daily volume. SHIBA INU ROBINHOOD LISTING SAID TO COME AS EARLY IN FEBthis is about 6 months too late— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 12, 2022Additionally, SHIB also rallied higher in line with a bounce-back across crypto markets on Wednesday, with top digital asset Bitcoin (BTC) rebounding by more than 12% and Ether (ETH) rising by nearly 18% in the past three days.Related: Five coins that saw huge gains in 2021While it is likely that SHIB’s price boomed due to excessive speculation, Vladimir Kardapoltsev, CEO of blockchain wallet company PointPay, noted that its potential to log more gains in 2022 was huge due to SHIB investors’ recent holding pattern.”It is worth mentioning that in just over five weeks, the average holding duration for Shiba coins on Coinbase Global has climbed from 6 to 32 days,” he told Cointelegraph, adding that “people have been hoarding SHIB because of Shiba Inu’s willingness to become more than just a Dogecoin-like meme token.”Kardapoltsev said,”There are several critical criteria that investors and potential buyers should consider when determining the price of SHIB in 2022. Shibarium, the gaming video game Oshiverse, and ShibaSwap have all contributed to Shiba Inu’s surging pricing, placing it ahead of competitors such as Dogecoin, which is still a meme currency play with minimal development.”The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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