Autor Cointelegraph By Yashu Gola

HYPE, the native token of decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, jumped more than 23% in the past 24 hours, climbing toward $47 on Friday to hit its highest level since October 2025.HYPE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewWhat is driving the sudden HYPE rally, and does the token have enough momentum to extend its bull run in the coming days?Key takeaways:This week’s multiple US spot HYPE ETF launches have strengthened the token’s institutional-demand narrative.Coinbase becoming Hyperliquid’s USDC treasury deployer boosts HYPE prices.HYPE ETF launches fuel institutional demand hopesThe biggest immediate catalyst behind HYPE’s rally appears to be the arrival of US-listed Hyperliquid exchange-traded products.On Friday, Bitwise launched its spot Hyperliquid ETF, trading under the ticker BHYP on the NYSE. HYPE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewThe fund gives investors regulated exposure to HYPE and intends to stake a portion of its holdings through Bitwise’s in-house staking division. Its sponsor fee is set at 0.34%, with a full waiver for the first month on the first $500 million in assets.The launch follows 21Shares’ Hyperliquid ETF, THYP, which debuted on Nasdaq on Tuesday. A day later, onchain data resource Lookonchain claimed that wallets linked to venture capital firm a16z had purchased nearly $67.5 million worth of HYPE tokens. Source: XThe purchases reportedly took place in the month leading up to the ETF launches, adding to signs of growing institutional interest in Hyperliquid.Sustained upside through May will likely depend on whether the HYPE ETFs attract meaningful inflows rather than simply generating launch-week speculation. As of Friday, they were managing $3.17 million worth of assets, according to SoSoValue data.US spot HYPE ETFs net flows. Source: SoSoValueCoinbase, Circle deal adds structural tailwind for HYPE rallyHYPE’s rally also gained momentum after Coinbase announced on Thursday that it had become the official treasury deployer of USDC on Hyperliquid.The deal strengthens USDC’s role as the main collateral and quote asset across Hyperliquid’s onchain markets. The stablecoin already accounts for roughly $5 billion in supply on Hyperliquid, making it the dominant stablecoin in the ecosystem, according to DefiLlama.Stablecoin market cap on Hyperliquid. Source: DefiLlamaUnder the upgraded AQAv2 framework, Coinbase is expected to share the vast majority of reserve-yield revenue from USDC deployed on Hyperliquid with the protocol.Circle will also serve as the technical deployer for USDC on Hyperliquid and has committed to stake 500,000 HYPE tokens.”It’s an admission that Hyperliquid is too dominant in perps to displace, so better to align and capture distribution,” analyst Aylo said in a Thursday post, adding:”We should see an increase of ~$140M+ in annualised revenue which will be used to buyback HYPE.”CLARITY Act progress adds regulatory tailwindHYPE’s rally also came as US crypto regulation showed signs of progress. On May 14, the Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act in a 15–9 vote, marking a key step for a bill that aims to define when digital assets fall under securities or commodities rules.The update improved sentiment across crypto markets, sparking intraday rallies in Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP and other top coins.Still, the CLARITY Act is not law yet. The bill now heads to the Senate, where it will likely need broader bipartisan support to overcome procedural hurdles. If it passes the Senate, lawmakers would still need to reconcile it with the House version before sending a final bill to President Donald Trump for approval.HYPE rising wedge warns of 30% price correctionHYPE’s ongoing upside momentum remains inside what appears to be a rising wedge pattern, confirmed by the price trending inside two converging, upward-sloping trend lines.In technical analysis, such a wedge typically plays out when the price breaks below its lower trend line and falls to the level at a length equal to the structure’s maximum height.HYPE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewApplying this rule to the HYPE chart brings its downside target to the $26.5–$31.20 range, depending on the potential breakdown point, as shown above. That means a potential 30%-45% correction by June or July.Conversely, a decisive breakout above the rising wedge’s upper boundary may invalidate the bearish setup altogether, pushing HYPE’s price toward the $59–$60 range, aligning with the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level shown below.HYPE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingViewHYPE’s daily relative strength index (RSI) also supports the short-term bullish case. The indicator remains below the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting the price still has room to extend its rally.

Bitcoin (BTC) may reach $100,000 by June as Strategy’s renewed buying power and falling stablecoin dominance suggest liquidity is returning to crypto.Key takeaways:Michael Saylor’s Strategy may purchase at least 3,127 BTC this week via the sales of STRC shares.Falling crypto market dominance of USDT and USDC stablecoins increases BTC’s odds of reaching $100,000.Strategy resumes Bitcoin buying as STRC stock reclaims $100 parStrategy’s preferred stock, Stretch (STRC), has reclaimed its critical $100 par value, restoring one of the company’s funding mechanisms for Bitcoin purchases, data from STRC.LIVE shows.As of Wednesday, STRC was trading around $100.01, with estimates suggesting the preferred-share program has already unlocked enough buying power for Strategy to acquire at least 3,172 BTC this week.Strategy’s weekly BTC buying estimates via STRC stock sales. Source: STRC.LIVEThat is nearly 235% of Bitcoin’s newly mined supply over the same period.Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation model becomes significantly more efficient whenever STRC trades at or above par. In those conditions, the company can issue preferred shares more aggressively, raise fresh capital, and redirect proceeds into Bitcoin.Since February, the company has added roughly 101,700 BTC, lifting its holdings to nearly 819,000 BTC as of May 11 from about 717,000 BTC in mid-February. Source: XBitcoin rose more than 40% over the same stretch, underscoring how Strategy’s latest accumulation wave has coincided with BTC’s broader recovery.”STRC raised $5.58 billion YTD since January,” market analyst Pio Vincenzo said in a Wednesday post, adding that MSTR may raise “another $20 billion by the end of the year.”Related: Strategy CEO Phong Le says company will sell BTC only in specific casesFalling stablecoin dominance is bullish for Bitcoin’s priceAnother bullish signal is coming from the stablecoin market.The combined dominance of Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC is showing signs of topping near the 10%–11% resistance zone, according to a fractal analysis shared by analyst MikybullCrypto.Net USDT and USDC’s crypto market dominance monthly chart. Source: TradingView/MikybullCryptoStablecoin dominance measures how much of the crypto market is sitting in digital dollars. When it falls, it usually means capital is rotating back into Bitcoin and other crypto assets.Past cycles show a similar pattern. During 2022–2024, stablecoin dominance dropped nearly 70% while Bitcoin rose by around 600%. Similarly, in 2021, a 54% drop in stablecoin dominance aligned with BTC’s 525% price gains. Net USDT and USDC’s crypto market dominance vs. BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingViewOn average, stablecoin dominance has fallen by 61.3%, while Bitcoin has rallied by around 560% in the same period.”BTC therefore has a higher chance for a sustained bullish reversal on the weekly chart,” MikybullCrypto said, adding:”Reaching $100k this quarter seems likely.”On the flip side, Bitcoin upside continues to show signs of exhaustion near its 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA, the blue line) at around $82,000.BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingViewFailing to break above this resistance increases the odds of sell-offs in the coming weeks, with a potential rising wedge pattern hinting at a drop under $70,000 by June.

A Bitcoin (BTC) whale is now down about $13 million as BTC price has rebounded by around 40% from its February lows. However, the trader continues to stand by the short position.Key takeaways:A trader known as “pension-usdt.eth” is short 1,000 BTC worth roughly $81 million using 3x leverage.The BTC short position will be fully liquidated at $100,810, while Kalshi bettors now assign a 50% probability of BTC reaching $100,000 in 2026.Nearly $81 million risks liquidation if BTC hits $100,000Known by the moniker ‘pension-usdt.eth,’ the trader is short 1,000 BTC, worth about $81.06 million, with 3x cross leverage, according to data gathered by HypurrScan.IO.The position, with exposure of over $80.87 million, was opened when BTC was trading for $67,990. As of Tuesday, the cryptocurrency had risen to around $81,000–$82,000, leaving the short position down just shy of $13 million.BTC and ETH short positions of pension-usdt.eth as of May 12. Source: HypurrScan.IOThe trader also holds a 20,000 Ether (ETH) short worth about $46.1 million, bringing total bearish exposure to more than $127 million.Funding from both short BTC and ETH positions has added over $125,000, though that is dwarfed by the unrealized loss.The drawdown is notable because pension-usdt.eth once had 20 straight wins and a win rate above 85%, said data resource Lookonchain in its April post. Nonetheless, the trader confirmed that he is “still short,” and that “the trade makes sense.”Source: XThe comments came as Bitcoin showed signs of upside exhaustion near a strong resistance confluence. This resistance level includes the 200-day simple moving average (200-day SMA, blue line) and the upper boundary of a rising wedge pattern, both around $82,430. BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingViewA successful resolution of the wedge pattern will increase Bitcoin’s odds of dropping toward the measured target around $71,500. The trader’s unrealized loss on the 1,000 BTC short would shrink to roughly $3.5 million if that happens.Analyst Crypto Kid further stressed that a rejection from the 200-day SMA has historically signaled prolonged bear markets.”The last two times this retest occurred at the same point in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, we dropped an average of 68%,” he said in a Monday post.BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingViewA similar drawdown from current levels would send the BTC price under $30,000, turning pension-usdt.eth’s trade into a profit of roughly $38 million.Analysts say Bitcoin’s structure no longer resembles prior bear marketsSome analysts argue that the current Bitcoin setup no longer resembles previous bear-market conditions.Analyst CRG noted that during the 2022 bear cycle, Bitcoin did not post a single daily close above the Ichimoku cloud. This zone often serves as dynamic resistance in downtrends and support in uptrends.BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView/CRGBTC’s eventual breakout above the cloud marked the start of a “new bull market.”As of May, BTC was already trading comfortably above the daily cloud. For CRG, that weakens the bearish comparison with the last cycle.BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView/CRGPierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, echoed a similar view, arguing that the current bear market has “materially decoupled from past cycles.”Bitcoin drawdown from all-time highs to cycle lows. Source: Pierre RochardIn a Tuesday post, Rochard said Bitcoin’s relative strength likely comes from a combination of steady ETF inflows and continued accumulation by Bitcoin treasury companies such as Strategy.Related: Bitcoin price eyes $96K as institutions absorb 500% of daily BTC supplyOn Kalshi, a prediction market platform, bettors now see 50% chance of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 in 2026. Bitcoin price targets for 2026. Source: KalshiPension-usdt.eth’s $81 million Bitcoin position will be liquidated entirely if the BTC price reaches $100,810.

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed roughly 40% from its February lows, bringing the price back to a critical resistance zone that could determine whether the bear market continues or finally ends.Key takeaways:Bitcoin fell 2.25% to around $80,500 after failing once again to break above its 200-day EMA resistance.Previous rejections from the same technical level triggered Bitcoin declines of 25% and 36%.Bitcoin bulls must decisively break key trend lineAs of Monday, BTC/USD was down 2.25% near $80,500, erasing its overnight gains as buyers once again failed to clear the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA, blue line).The level has capped Bitcoin’s rebound attempts since November 2025. Each rejection from the 200-day EMA has preceded steep drawdowns of 25% and 36%, respectively, putting the average decline near 30%.BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingViewIn his Monday post, analyst Brett said breaking above the 200-day EMA, currently near $82,580, could be “the end of the bears.” But given Bitcoin’s ongoing pullback, the prospects of BTC falling further in the coming sessions appear higher. BTC’s price could fall toward $56,600 from current levels if it repeats its average 30% drawdown from the 200-day EMA rejection zone.BTC price “lifetime support” model shows $56,000 floorThe $56,600 level aligns closely with Bitcoin’s broader macro support range. A new Bitcoin Lifetime Support Model, highlighted by analyst PlanC, places BTC’s long-term upper support band near $57,110. The lower support was roughly around the $46,760 level.Bitcoin lifetime support model. Source: Coin Metrics/PlanCThe model averages Bitcoin’s lifetime simple moving average with its single-, double-, triple- and quadruple-EMAs, then plots a 10% band around the result.Historically, similar lifetime support zones have acted as macro bear-market floors. That means Bitcoin’s immediate setup remains bearish, but a decline toward the mid-$50,000s would still place BTC near a major long-term support area.Bitcoin’s still unresolved bear flag pattern also hints at a potential drop below $60,000 in the coming weeks, as shown below.BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingViewBitcoin’s 2026 rebound mirrors past cycle bottomsDespite the near-term bearish setup, Bitcoin’s latest rebound from the 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA, blue line) is flashing a historically bullish signal.BTC bounced by over 38% after testing the 200-week SMA near $61,000. This blue level closely aligns with major cycle bottoms seen in 2018 and during the March 2020 crash.BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingViewIn both prior instances, Bitcoin briefly dipped toward or below the 200-week SMA before staging a sustained recovery toward the 50-week SMA (red). Related: Analyst says Bitcoin’s $60K bottom signals weaken bear-market forecastBitcoin’s next upside target could be near $94,700, up roughly 17% from current price levels, if the fractal continues to play out. A move that high could support Brett’s view that the bear market is nearing its end.The bullish outlook is also backed by strong fundamentals, including aggressive whale accumulation that recently absorbed nearly 500% of Bitcoin’s newly issued supply.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has fallen more than 35% against Bitcoin (BTC) over the past year, and the downtrend may still have further to go.Key takeaways:ETH may plunge another 40% as it mirrors the 2025 bear trend setup.Rising Ether reserves on Binance, even as Bitcoin reserves decline, add to the case for further ETH downside.ETH risks 40% decline after topping near multi-year trend lineETH/BTC remains stuck below a multi-year descending trend line that has capped every breakout attempt since 2022, including one that preceded the nearly 70% decline between 2024 and 2025. ETH/BTC monthly chart. Source: TradingView A similar setup now appears to be taking shape again.After retesting the same trend line in August 2025, ETH/BTC was rejected near a confluence of resistance that included the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-month exponential moving average (50-month EMA, red). The pair has since turned lower and slipped back below its 20-month EMA (green) support near 0.034 BTC, a sign that sellers continue to dominate the trend.The next major downside target for 2026 comes in around 0.0176 BTC if the weakness persists. This level, down about 40% from current rates, aligns with the 2020 cycle bottom.Exchange reserves highlight ETH-BTC divergenceExchange data points to persistent sell-side risk for Ether. As of May, ETH reserves on Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by volume, had climbed to 3.62 million ETH, accounting for roughly 24.6% of all Ether held across exchanges, according to data resource CryptoQuant.Ethereum reserves on Binance. Source: CryptoQuantIn comparison, Bitcoin reserves on Binance have fallen. Bitcoin reserves on Binance. Source: CryptoQuantRising exchange balances usually signal that more tokens are available for sale, which can weigh on price when demand is not strong enough to absorb the added supply. Falling reserves, on the other hand, often suggest coins are being moved off exchanges for longer-term holding.In that sense, Binance reserve trends reinforce the broader market picture: Ether is facing relatively higher available supply, while Bitcoin is showing signs of tighter exchange-side liquidity. Related: Four signs that show Ethereum’s rally is exhausted at $2.4KEthereum’s weakness reflects a broader shift in fundamentals. For years, Ether has lagged behind Bitcoin in part because Ethereum’s “ultrasound money” narrative has lost momentum. BTC, on the other hand, continues to draw strength from corporate accumulation led by firms like Strategy and its growing integration into Wall Street portfolios.