Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week above $20,000 but heading for a new bearish record as a key support level remains out of reach.After a calm weekend punctuated by a brief spike to near $22,000, BTC/USD is back near the Friday closing price of CME futures markets.A “round trip” thus allows traders to pick up where they left off at the end of last week’s final Wall Street trading session, but what could lie in store in the coming days?A familiar cocktail of macro threats and ongoing bearish tendencies make the current climate far from ideal for the average hodler. Despite seeing some relief last week, crypto markets continue to bear the brunt of cold feet, which have defined macro sentiment increasingly throughout 2022.With the June monthly close fast approaching, meanwhile, Bitcoin faces a few days of reckoning amid what could be its worst monthly performance since 2018.Cointelegraph takes a look at five potential market triggers for the week ahead as inflation rages and crypto struggles to regain its footing.Traders expect July to provide BTC price “catalysts”“Apathetic” is a good word to describe the general sense of resignation among Bitcoin traders this week.While the weekend spared the average hodler more unwelcome surprises, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, the fact remains that BTC/USD is far from where anyone wants it to be — even in a bear market.With the key 200-week moving average (WMA) out of reach, there is precious little bullish sentiment out there, as evidenced by the “extreme fear” of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index still firmly in control.Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me“BTC will capitulate in the next 6 months & hit cycle bottom (anywhere between $14-21k), then chop around in $28-40k in most of 2023 and be at ~$40k again by next halving,” Venturefounder, contributing analyst at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, summarized in part of a Twitter update on June 27.Venturefounder’s thesis is indicative of a broader belief that the bottom is not yet in for Bitcoin, and that any relief moves are exactly that — distractions on the way to lower levels which suck capital out of market newbies and weak hands.Expectations are that the first week of July could provide the next major bout of volatility across crypto and risk assets.“Not much happening overnight on Bitcoin but am expecting quite a slow week due to the lack of catalysts currently,” popular trader Crypto Tony confirmed. “July will be more of an action packed month for volatility due to the catalysts upcoming.”For Arthur Hayes, former CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, the first week of next month is a period where macro stars will align to punish hodlers once again. In a blog post earlier in June, he flagged the United States Federal Reserve’s outsized rate hike and balance sheet reduction as providing the key backdrop to a risk asset nightmare.“By June 30 (second quarter end), the Fed will have enacted a 75bps rate hike and begun shrinking its balance sheet. July 4 falls on a Monday, and is a federal and banking holiday. This is the perfect setup for yet another mega crypto dump,” Hayes warned.A “wild ride to the downside” thus could be just days away.As Cointelegraph reported, popular consensus for a genuine price bottom focuses on the area between $14,000 and $16,000, but $11,000 has also made an appearance, this corresponding to an 84.5% drawdown versus Bitcoin’s most recent all-time high.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewHow normal is this bear?While some panic sell their BTC, analysts are striving to show that so far, there is nothing unusual about the scope of the Bitcoin bear market.Among them is on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which in its recent research piece, “A Bear of Historic Proportions,” called for calm on sub-$20,000 BTC.“Bear market lows have historically been established with BTC drawdowns of -75% to -84% from the ATH, and taking a duration of 260-days in 2019-20, to 410-days in 2015,” it wrote. “With the current drawdown reaching -73.3% below the Nov-2021 ATH, and taking a duration between 227-days and 435-days, this bear market is now firmly within historical norms and magnitude.”What singles out the current climate is not Bitcoin itself, but investors’ reactions to price changes. Despite losses remaining within historical norms, sales of BTC at a loss have eclipsed previous records.“The recent price collapse through to the $20k region was punctuated with the largest daily USD denominated realized loss in history,” Glassnode noted. “Investors collectively locked in a loss of -$4.234B in a single day, which is a 22.5% increase from the previous record of $3.457B set in mid-2021.”In BTC terms, the losses amount to the third-largest in Bitcoin’s history.Bitcoin net realized profit/loss annotated chart (screenshot). Source: GlassnodeBTC risks first monthly close below 200WMAWith three days left before the June monthly close, things are either looking worrying or “interesting” for Bitcoin depending on one’s perspective.With the bear market in full swing, BTC/USD remains below a key trendline that has supported it during previous macro lows. The 200-week moving average (WMA), which has never decreased in value, currently sits at $22,430.In previous bear markets, as Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin has retained the 200WMA as support while wicking below it to put in floor prices. This time, however, the level is flipping to resistance as bulls’ attempts to follow historical norms repeatedly fail. As such, the end of the month could be “interesting,” says Stock-to-Flow price model creator PlanB, as it would mark the first monthly close under the 200WMA ever.An accompanying chart uploaded on June 26 shows Bitcoin’s relationship to the 200WMA versus the distance from its block halving events, these delineating the four-year cycles, which contain the bear market paradigms previously referred to.This is getting interesting! If BTC does not close June above 200WMA ($22K) that would be the first monthly close below 200WMA ever. 4 days to go .. pic.twitter.com/YtshVcIpks— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 26, 2022Meanwhile, Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, noted further unusual bearish traits currently characterizing the BTC price.In addition to being under the 200WMA, he notes, BTC/USD Is also below its realized price and deep in the “buy” zone of the Mayer Multiple metric. As Cointelegraph recently reported, the Mayer Multiple shows how far the price below its 200-day moving average and thus how likely a buy at a specific level would be to generate asymmetrical returns.“Such events in the past have only occurred for 13 out of 4,360, representing 0.2% of all trading days,” Checkmate wrote in part of a tweet.#Bitcoin is trading below the following models which have coalesced around bear market floors in the past:200W moving averageRealized Price0.6 x Mayer MultipleSuch events in the past have only occurred for 13 out of 4,360, representing 0.2% of all trading days. pic.twitter.com/DtWGMrL2U2— _Checkɱate ⚡ (@_Checkmatey_) June 26, 2022

Bitcoin dominance dives from multi-month highIt was only recently that altcoins were suffering even more than Bitcoin due to upheaval from multiple major projects including Terra and Celsius.Now, however, the tables are turning — Bitcoin dominance has reversed after spiking this year, leading to suggestions that altcoins could be the place to be in the short term.“Bitcoin dominance is moving down strongly. The advantage lies with altcoins right now,” popular Twitter account BTCfuel summarized.After reaching an 11-month high of 48.36% on June 11, Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market cap has declined to 43.46% at the time of writing — a noticeable shift in under three weeks.For veteran trader Peter Brandt, Bitcoin’s relative strength versus alts could have more significance than meets the eye for bulls.“This chart could be the big ‘tell,’” he argued about the market cap dominance data. “A decisive close back above 50% would be huge positive.”Others are meanwhile confident that despite the latest reversal, it is not altcoins’ time to shine in any meaningful way going forward.According to Venturefounder, holding BTC is still an investor’s best bet.#Bitcoin dominance peaked at 48% and started going down again: but imo it’s definitely NOT the beginning of #ALTSEASON. Rest assured in a cycle-end bearmarket #BTC shall remain the best bet over #altcoinsSuch event has happened multiple times during the 2018 cycle as well. pic.twitter.com/SJQolLNvy6— venturef◎undΞr (@venturefounder) June 27, 2022

“Normal bear market narrative altcoins bleed more heavily Bitcoin,” trading suite Decentrader added in separate comments on the latest dominance action. “However, for the last 2 weeks altcoins (generally) have out performed. So either: ‘This time is different’ or ‘This won’t last.’ Dominance remains in 40-48% range.”Bitcoin dominance 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingViewBitcoin goes mainstream again — for the wrong reasonsBitcoin is more popular among mainstream internet users than at any time in over a year — but is it something worth celebrating?Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, UNI, XLM, THETA, HNTData from Google Trends confirms that more people have been googling “Bitcoin” this month than at any point since May 2021.Worldwide Google search data for “Bitcoin.” Source: Google TrendsThen, as now, however, BTC price action was targeting long-term lows, rather than highs, indicating that it is bearish events that trigger mainstream interest.Last November’s all-time high, by comparison, looks like a blip on the radar when it comes to search interest.Not a capitulation pic.twitter.com/rmp7ukK1HU— JACKIS (@i_am_jackis) June 26, 2022

As such, activity for phrases such as “Bitcoin is dead” has spiked, this noted by social media users as a possible sign that the market is in a “capitulation” phase.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) made the most of weekend volatility on June 26 as a squeeze saw BTC/USD reach its highest in over a week.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView”Unusual whale activity” flaggedData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed the largest cryptocurrency as it hit $21,868 on Bitstamp.Just hours from the weekly close, a reversal then set in under $21,500, Bitcoin still in line to seal its first “green” weekly candle since May.The event followed warnings that volatile conditions both up and down could return during low-liquidity weekend trading. On-chain data nonetheless fixed what appeared to be buying by Bitcoin’s largest-volume investor cohort prior to the uptick.”Unusual whale activity detected in Bitcoin,” popular analytics resource Game of Trades observed. “The supply held by entities with balance 1k-10k BTC just saw a huge spike in demand. Let’s watch if the trend confirms.”An accompanying chart from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode showed shifting up markedly from around the time BTC/USD hit lows of $17,600 this month.BTC supply held by entities with 1,000-10,000 BTC annotated chart. Source: Games of Trades/ TwitterAs Cointelegraph reported, whales had eagerly purchased BTC below $20,000, forming new support clusters in the process.CME futures gap looms largeFor others, however, conservative views on price action remained the norm.Related: Bitcoin gives ‘encouraging signs’ — Watch these BTC price levels nextCointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe eyed the need to crack $21,600 definitively in order to secure the chances of further upside. Additionally, last week’s closing price of $21,100 on CME Group’s Bitcoin futures could provide a short-term target.”Standard weekend fake-outs happening and probably ending at CME close at $21.1K for Bitcoin,” he forecast on the day. “No clear breakout above $21.6K at this point, yet.”CME Bitcoin futures 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewThe monthly close was still on course to cement Bitcoin’s worst June on record with monthly losses of almost 33%. Along with May 2021, this would also be the worst-performing month since before the 2018 bear market bottom, data from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass confirms.Bitcoin monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: CoinglassThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) focused on $21,000 into the weekend amid warnings that volatility could still consume the market before Monday.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewS&P 500 sees second best week of 2022Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD broadly higher in its recent trading range after U.S. stocks ended the week strong.As noted by markets commentators Holger Zschaepitz, the S&P 500 sealed its second best week of 2022, indicative of modest relief across risk assets.In case you missed it: S&P 500 has gained >6% in 2nd-best week of 2022 as disinflationary forces gather steam & #Fed tightening expectations recede. Investors now see the key interest rate at only 3.4% at the end of 2022, a full 35bps lower than at the start of the week. pic.twitter.com/pE4TsrXXAp— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) June 25, 2022Bitcoin was on track to log slights gains at its weekly close, the first weekly green candle — albeit small — since May.Before then, however, anything could happens, according to on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators (MI).Referencing recent weekend price action, MI recommended Twitter followers not to be complacent in the absence of weekday volume.”If BTC can take out the 200 WMA there is room to run,” part of one post read. “Wknds have been wild so buckle up. A retest of the lows can come as fast as a rip to $24k.”An attached chart of order book data from largest global exchange Binance offered a glimpse into buy and sell plans from traders. Below spot price, there was little support in terms of volume until $19,000, while conversely, heavy resistance lay just north of $22,000. Binance BTC/USD order book data chart. Source: Material Indicators/ TwitterThat level marked the key 200-week moving average (WMA) for BTC/USD, this being necessary for bears to reclaim to change the trend, various sources believe.Altcoins set for first green week since MarchAltcoins were also calm on the day while eyeing an impressive week of gains within the gloomy overall macro market context.Related: Ethereum price breaks out as ‘bad news is good news’ for stocksIn the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap, several tokens stood around 30% higher than seven days previously at the time of writing.Among them was Ether (ETH), up 28% and lingering around $1,200.In a dedicated order book post, MI noted that ETH/USD had also performed a retest of the 200WMA, but that trouble could still lie ahead.#ETH with a legit retest of the 200 WMA on volume of the latest Trend Precognition signal. Want to see next week’s candle w/ a clean open and close above it without another sweep of the lows to validate. Concerned the 21 WMA will cross the 100 WMA and trigger another dump. #NFA pic.twitter.com/aLOXFideJX— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) June 24, 2022

Elsewhere, Shiba Inu (SHIB) was up 50% versus last week, while Polygon (MATIC) stole the show with 70% weekly gains.MATIC/USD 1-day candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingViewFor Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, there was still every reason to enter crypto markets now.”From an investment thesis (all things ceteris paribus), it’s a great period to look for those altcoins that you want to have,” he told Twitter followers. “In 2021, everyone dreamed of buying those at those low price values. Now the chances are there and people don’t dare to make the decision. Typical.”On the weekly basis, the altcoin market cap was up $37 billion over the week, set for its first green candle since March.Altcoin market cap 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) headed toward the upper end of its trading range on June 24 as optimism crept back into traders’ forecasts.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin price “ready for $23,000″Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a broadly stable BTC/USD as it hit local highs of $21,425 on Bitstamp.The pair had shifted higher since wicking below the $20,000 on June 22, with United States equities similarly cool going into the weekend.“Bitcoin ready for $23,000,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe announced to Twitter followers on the day.At just above the crucial 200-week moving average (WMA), $23,000 formed a popular upside target for commentators — and sellers.As noted by trading suite Decentrader, whales on exchange Bitfinex had set asks in that area, providing the potential for BTC/USD to “fakeout” above the 200WMA in the event of a squeeze.“The 200WMA has great historical significance having held up price in previous bear markets, and will be of major interest to traders when price revisits it,” Decentrader wrote in its latest market update, echoing popular sentiment.“Over at Bitfinex where we know the whales particularly like to dominate, there is a significant wall of asks at $23,000 just above the 200WMA level. There is no guarantee that those asks will stay there or cannot be broken when price reaches them. But it is worth noting them and therefore being aware of a potential fakeout risk around the 200WMA that may reject price on its first attempt to break through.”The firm added that overall, while crypto was “not out of the woods,” the market was giving signals that were “encouraging for the bulls.”Trader targets $1,500 for EthereumAltcoins meanwhile stole the show on low timeframes as the week came to a close.Related: Bitcoin miner ‘capitulation event’ may have already happened — ResearchEther (ETH), the largest altcoin by market cap, gained almost 10% on the day to climb above $1,200.XRP and Solana (SOL) performed even better, both with daily gains in double figures and the latter knocking on weekly returns of nearly 30%.SOL/USD 1-hour candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingViewThe sea of green was omnipresent among the top fifty cryptocurrencies by market cap, with only UNUS SED LEO (LEO) bucking the trend, trading down 5.8% at the time of writing.“Great market environment here, as markets are continuing the upwards momentum,” Van de Poppe said in a separate update, adding that ETH/USD could hit $1,500 “during the coming weeks.”ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.