Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin is now in its longest-ever 'extreme fear' period

Bitcoin is now in its longest-ever 'extreme fear' period

Uverejnil používateľ | júl 15, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) may have avoided fresh losses since falling to $17,600 last month, but the sentiment is on the floor.Now, one classic crypto market mood gauge is showing just how long and hard the average investor has suffered.70 days of “extreme fear”While crypto market sentiment was already “comparable to funeral” before the start of 2022, the subsequent price drawdown in Bitcoin and altcoins produced cold feet like never before.This has now been quantified by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a tool that takes multiple sources into account to create an overall score of how the markets are feeling. As of July 15, Fear & Greed has spent 70 days in its lowest bracket — “extreme fear” — marking of a new bearish record.The Index consists of five such brackets, with the others being “fear,” “neutral,” “greed” and “extreme greed.”A score below 25/100 on its normalized scare corresponds to “extreme greed,” and it is that score zone that has characterized the past two months. The last time that the market was more optimistic than “extreme fear” was on May 5 — days before the Terra (LUNA) — now called Terra Classic (LUNC) — debacle.Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.meCommenting on the data, Philip Swift, creator of on-chain analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin, noted that this “extreme fear” period is longer than even those surrounding the 2018 Bitcoin bear market and March 2020 cross-market crash.Fear & Greed Index: we have now had the longest ever period of Extreme Fear…70days!!! Live chart: https://t.co/Jr5151zN7IPotential for a near-term reversal for #Bitcoin soon? pic.twitter.com/thyUtLeRP9— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) July 15, 20222022, despite its bearish overtones, has nonetheless not been without its exuberant phases. The last time that the Index was in its “greed” or “extreme greed” zone — which tends to suggest an overheated market — was in March this year.Research eyes “sign of potential breakout”Looking to what could aid Bitcoin and altcoins’ recovery, research firm Santiment, meanwhile, believes that crypto correlation to traditional assets must come down.Related: Bitcoin whales still ‘hibernating’ as BTC price nears $21KWhile already dropping, BTC must continue to strike out on its own and avoid the knee-jerk reaction to central bank monetary tightening over inflation.”Crypto grows at its most rapid pace when having very little correlation with equities,” it argued in a Twitter post on July 14. “After yesterday’s CPI report, $BTC & alts have been recovering while the SP500 & Gold drop. If they stay uncorrelated, it’s a good sign of a potential breakout.”Crypto market cap comparison chart. Source: Santiment/ TwitterA more striking inverse correlation to eye has been between crypto and the U.S. dollar, currently near twenty-year highs against a basket of trading partner currencies.The U.S. dollar index (DXY) continues to trade at around 108 after hitting multiple peaks throughout the week, data from TradingView shows.U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin whales still 'hibernating' as BTC price nears $21K

Bitcoin whales still 'hibernating' as BTC price nears $21K

Uverejnil používateľ | júl 15, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) hit $21,000 for the first time in several days on July 15 as markets enjoyed what one trader called “summer relief.”BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewAltcoin rebound eyed as BTC price adds 11%Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD grinding higher overnight to just tap the $21,000 mark on Bitstamp on the day.A noticeable change of tact had set in after initial losses on the back of forty-year highs for the United States’ Consumer Price Index (CPI). Versus the July 13 lows, BTC/USD was thus up 11%.”Summer relief time,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized.Popular trader Crypto Tony was also in the mood for modest optimism on short timeframes, eyeing a move to $21,700 for profit-taking.$BTC / $USD – Update Stuck hovering around the EQ currently of the range. I am still in my long and looking for a flip so we can push up to my final range target of $21,700 Invalidation point now $19,600 pic.twitter.com/Q8e0oy4UuV— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) July 15, 2022″If we get this, then Alts can continue to enjoy a nice pump and relief rally,” he added in a further tweet.Many major altcoins had responded well to the uptick in BTC price action, with Ether (ETH) making a noticeable rebound to cap over 12% daily gains.Others in the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap also fared well, with only Solana (SOL) nonetheless managing to beat ETH over the past 24 hours.ETH/USD thus succeeded in avoiding a return below the psychologically significant $1,000 level.ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingViewWhales “waiting for moment to wake up”Meanwhile, on-chain data suggested that the largest Bitcoin hodlers were in no mood to act at current prices.Related: Bitcoin price spikes to $20K as whale-bought BTC confirms supportIn a Twitter thread on July 14, BlockTrends analyst Caue Oliveira highlighted what he described as “hibernation” continuing among whale wallets.”Whales remain in hibernation, waiting for the right moment to wake up,” he observed. “Institutional movements, or commonly called ‘whale activity’ can be tracked based on the transaction volume moved over a short period of time, both denominated in BTC and USD.”An accompanying chart showed a distinct lack of large-volume transactions on the network in recent months, with only the Terra LUNA blowout causing a temporary trend break.”Here we have a clear view of the low institutional activity, almost non-existent after the month of May, which was briefly awakened during the LUNA crash but which returned to hibernation,” Oliveira added.Bitcoin spent output value bands annotated chart. Source: Caue Oliveira/ TwitterThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin analysts weigh sub-$17.5K dip after 'weak' BTC price bounce

Bitcoin analysts weigh sub-$17.5K dip after 'weak' BTC price bounce

Uverejnil používateľ | júl 14, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) avoided losses as United States equities dived on the July 14 Wall Street open, but traders remained nervous.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewAnalyst: “No way” Bitcoin bottomed at $17,500Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it lingered around $20,000 on the day.Wall Street opened with losses, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index both down around 1.8% at the time of writing.Bitcoin nonetheless managed to hold its own as the largest cryptocurrency’s correlation to stocks fell to its lowest levels of 2022 so far.That said, few were willing to say that the worst was over for hodlers.”This has been a weak rebound so far. Another possible bearish continuation…,” macro analyst Aksel Kibar summarized to Twitter followers.Popular analyst and social media personality Michael Suppo meanwhile expected a lower low than June’s near $17,500 levels thanks to a cocktail of macroeconomic factors.”No way is $17.5k the bottom for Bitcoin,” he wagered.Others hoped that higher support levels would hold before any retest of existing multi-month lows.13.7K is a possibility that we’ve been watching for 10 months now. #Bitcoin will not hit 13.7K unless we lose 19.5K as support.19.5K is holding really well so far. The bottom is likely in or very close to being in but most will miss the bottom while waiting for lower prices pic.twitter.com/AJF5ye0ntn— Steve Courtney ~ Crypto Crew University (@CryptoCrewU) July 12, 2022″BTC has experienced most of its Downtrend Acceleration phase,” fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital continued with a slightly more optimistic perspective. “Once this phase is finished, the Multi-Month Consolidation phase will follow.”US dollar cools after yet another recordThe macro story on the day remained the U.S. dollar, which continued to hit new 20-year highs against a basket of trading partner currencies.Related: How Bitcoin’s strong correlation to stocks could trigger a drop to $8,000Those included the euro and Japanese yen, both of which fell to their lowest since the start of the century against USD. EUR/USD fell below parity.The dollar keeps strengthening, with DXY now at its highest level since 2002. This is a euro story, with fears of recession growing on the heels of a potential gas cutoff, and a yen story, with Japan’s extreme monetary policy divergence. But it’s also the stuff-a-mattress trade pic.twitter.com/tfk9GvTqOM— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) July 12, 2022

At the time of writing, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) circled 108.9 after hitting its peak of 109.29.U.S. dollar Index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView”No one wants fire insurance during a flood, and no one wants dollar value insurance with the Fed pumping $DXY via rates hikes and recession,” Reddit and Twitter user TheHappyHawaiian commented in part of a post discussing the impact of a strong dollar on silver prices.As Cointelegraph reported, TheHappyHawaiian also stated that the Federal Reserve would soon have no choice but to reverse the rate hikes or risk “blowing up” the economy.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin fights key trendline near $20K as US dollar index hits new 20-year high

Bitcoin fights key trendline near $20K as US dollar index hits new 20-year high

Uverejnil používateľ | júl 14, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) found a new focus just under $20,000 on July 14 as U.S. dollar strength hammered out yet another two-decade high.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewDXY moves bring yen, euro into focusData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD rebounding from lows sparked by a fresh 40-year high for U.S. inflation as per the Consumer Price Index (CPI).After briefly dipping under $19,000, the pair took a flight above $20,000 before consolidating immediately below that psychologically significant level.For on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators, it was now “do or die” for BTC price action when it came to a key rising trendline in place since mid-June.On the day, that trendline stood at around $19,600, with BTC/USD now preserving it as support.Gut check time for #Bitcoin bulls fighting for the trend line. #FireCharts pic.twitter.com/AUJmKXClU9— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) July 13, 2022Significant gains meanwhile looked less likely for crypto markets thanks to the day once more being ruled by the U.S. dollar. After tanking following the CPI print, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) returned with a vengeance to post its highest levels since 2002 — a phenomenon which had characterized much of the year.The new peak measured 108.64, an increase of over 1% versus the 24-hour lows.U.S. dollar Index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewBeyond the short-term negative impact for Bitcoin and risk assets, USD strength was also bad news for other major world currencies, with the Japanese yen particularly in focus for BTC commentators”Yen getting battered again today. Bank of Japan frozen in place, waiting for Fed reversal. Until then, they will continue to destroy their currency because they have no other option,” popular Twitter account Stack Hodler argued on the day. “BoJ + Yen is a glimpse into the future for ECB + Euro. Are you seeing why Bitcoin matters yet?”As Cointelegraph reported, some believe that the Fed will likewise have no choice but to halt inflation-busting interest rate hikes toward the end of 2022.”In response to today’s CPI print which showed broad-based and accelerating inflation, short-term FF futures moved upward implying peak FF of 3.68% by 12/22 with the @federalreserve immediately thereafter cutting rates to reach 2.9% by 1/24,” investor and hedge fund manager Bill Ackman wrote in part of a Twitter thread in reaction to the CPI data.”Implicitly the market expects a more aggressive Fed will push us into recession by year end and then cut rates in response.”Little belief in an altcoin rebirthTurning to altcoins, flat progress over the past 24 hours was no reason to assume prices could not drop more, one analyst warned.Related: How Bitcoin’s strong correlation to stocks could trigger a drop to $8,000In fresh updates on the day, Il Capo of Crypto predicted bearish moves for at least two tokens in the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap.Ether (ETH), for example, was threatening a return to a three-figure price tag.$ETHTesting previous ATH as resistance and forming a corrective move. Bearish.Clean break below $1k = $600-700 pic.twitter.com/5qRscCVQ5G— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) July 14, 2022

Cardano (ADA) faced an even worse situation after fall through support, which had been tested six times in as many weeks.”Support broken and now tested as resistance. Very bearish,” he commented.Data from research firm Santiment nonetheless shed light on the potential for a possible rebound of an altcoin, which had “dropped harder than most” this year. #Cardano’s price is down 69% in 2022, and this has caused social sentiment toward the #8 market cap asset to drop harder than most. The last time the crowd was this negative in Jan, $ADA rebounded +24% in 5 days until sentiment turned positive again. https://t.co/4BLpLNDraG pic.twitter.com/mJgnhtpB1V— Santiment (@santimentfeed) July 13, 2022

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin tanks on highest CPI data since 1981 as BTC price dips under $19K

Bitcoin tanks on highest CPI data since 1981 as BTC price dips under $19K

Uverejnil používateľ | júl 13, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) fell $800 in minutes on July 13 as the latest United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in far ahead of estimates.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewDollar smashes new 20-year highs on hot CPIData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it dived under $19,000 minutes after the June CPI print, which put U.S. inflation at 9.1%.Expectations had favored 8.8% CPI year-on-year, this still being the highest reading since the start of the 1980s.Consumer Price Index (CPI) chart (screenshot). Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsWith inflation all but guaranteeing further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, the mood among risk assets — including crypto — swiftly turned sour.”Peak inflation is here with CPI coming in at 9.1%,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe reacted, adding that $19,500 should have held for BTC/USD to avoid “cascading south some more.”U.S. dollar Index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewThe knock-on effect of the CPI numbers was also seen in the U.S. dollar. After the release, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) spiked to new twenty-year highs, forcing the euro below parity as a result.OUCH! #Euro drops below Dollar parity for the first time in 20yrs. pic.twitter.com/pqwAHMtTjm— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) July 13, 2022″Only 12 out of the last 110 years had inflation above 9%,” Charles Edwards, CEO of crypto asset manager Capriole, continued.”If inflation was still calculated the same as it was four decades ago, today’s reading would likely dwarf the others.”At the time of writing, BTC/USD traded back above $19,000, with volatility set to continue into the start of trading on Wall Street.ETH price back targeting three figuresAltcoins, already falling in line with BTC prior to the CPI event, also gave up recent gains.Related: Ethereum price risks ‘bear flag’ breakdown, 20% drop against BitcoinConspicuous was Ether (ETH), which threatened to go below $1,000 for the first time since June 30.ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingViewOther coins in the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap were down 3%–4% on the day, practically all of the losses coming after the data release.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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