Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin spikes above $22.2K as Fed votes for 75-basis-point rate hike

Bitcoin spikes above $22.2K as Fed votes for 75-basis-point rate hike

Uverejnil používateľ | júl 27, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) charged above $22,000 on July 27 after the United States Federal Reserve enacted another major interest rate hike.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewFed: “Appropriate” to keep hiking after JulyData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reacting positively to confirmation that the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) had unanimously voted to hike the Fed funds rate by 75 basis points.”The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run,” a press release stated. “In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.”Markets had already expected that 75 basis points would be the Fed’s next move. Commentators, however, increasingly considered the implications of the central bank’s balancing act between taming inflation and avoiding recession going forward.”Watch the Fed abandon forward guidance and rate commitments and embrace data-dependency. This cycle of hikes ends at 2 pm tomorrow. Buy bonds,” David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research & Associates, stated the day prior.Looking farther out, meanwhile, Wall Street macro strategist David Hunter forecast continued relief for risk assets. More pertinent was a bet that recent lows would not repeat, a potential boon for Bitcoin bulls given the cryptocurrency’s ongoing correlation to equities markets.”No matter what the Fed decides today (75 or 100bps), the market is poised for a move higher to S&P 4150–4200 & then maybe a sharp, short pullback to 3800 before a much bigger, more sustainable rally to 6000 gets underway,” he told Twitter followers. “The lows are in.The market not likely to undercut the June lows.”At the time of writing, volatility characterized spot markets as BTC/USD flitted around $22,000. Fed chair Jerome Powell was due to begin a press conference at the time of writing, his language apt to add further head or tailwinds to the market trajectory.”In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in May,” the press release additionally confirmed.Traders bet on a Bitcoin boostAnalyzing the market setup, meanwhile, bullish consensus among traders was palpable.Related: Will the Fed prevent BTC price from reaching $28K? — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekAnalyst Dylan LeClair noted long positions building on derivatives exchange FTX in the hours prior to the decision.Some big $BTC bulls on FTX going into FOMC pic.twitter.com/CWAE0BxGKZ— Dylan LeClair (@DylanLeClair_) July 27, 2022As Cointelegraph reported earlier, the institutional sentiment was seen to be improving over the second half of July, according to research from analytics firm Arcane Research.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin futures data shows 'improving' mood' despite -31% GBTC premium

Bitcoin futures data shows 'improving' mood' despite -31% GBTC premium

Uverejnil používateľ | júl 27, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) traders may be nervous going into the Federal Reserve rate hike decision, but research suggests that the bulls are broadly gaining ground.In a fresh update on July 26, analytics firm Arcane Research flagged what it calls “improving” sentiment among institutional traders.Caution mixed with “improving sentiment”While attention has focused on the likelihood of a deeper macro low for BTC/USD to come, it appears that not every investor cohort is ready to run for the exit.Even at current prices 70% below all-time highs, the mood among institutions is strengthening. For Arcane, the proof is in the rising premium being paid by CME Bitcoin futures clients.This premium, while still low by historical standards, has been sloping upward through the second half of July.”Basis premiums are now sitting at similar levels on CME and the offshore exchanges, indicating that the market sentiment is balanced among different groups of traders,” the update read.”While the basis premium on CME has grown, it’s still just 2.2%, a relatively low level historically. This indicates that although sentiment is improving, traders still exercise caution.”Bitcoin futures premium comparison chart (screenshot). Source: Arcane ResearchIn a similar trend, funding rates across derivatives platforms are currently slightly negative, pointing to a conservative view of future price action on the part of traders. A deeply negative average funding rate would suggest that the overriding view is that a price crash is due.”Still, funding rates are considerably higher than for most of June when contagion effects ravaged the market,” Arcane continued.As Cointelegraph reported, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index also continues to provide a commentary on growing investor confidence, recently ending its longest-ever stint in its lowest “extreme fear” zone.Arcane meanwhile voiced caution about the extent of leverage in operation on the market expressed in “elevated” open interest.”This high leverage makes the market vulnerable to either a short or long squeeze should a significant price movement occur on either side,” it added.No let-up for the GBTC “premium”Still struggling in the current environment, little signs of improvement are visible for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).Related: Sub-$22K Bitcoin looks juicy when compared to gold’s market capitalizationThe giant Bitcoin fund still had a negative “premium” of over 30% as of July 27, marking some of its steepest discounts to the Bitcoin spot price in history.According to data from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass, GBTC’s discount stood at 31.75% on the day, the equivalent of buying Bitcoin at around $14,700.As Cointelegraph previously noted, Grayscale is currently involved in legal action against US regulators over their refusal to allow a Bitcoin spot-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) on the market. GBTC, once able, should be converted to such an ETF product, the firm has said.GBTC premium vs. asset holdings vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: CoinglassThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin heads into FOMC day on 24-hour highs amid concern over $24.3K top

Bitcoin heads into FOMC day on 24-hour highs amid concern over $24.3K top

Uverejnil používateľ | júl 27, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to claw back losses on July 27 as a macro day of reckoning arrived for risk assets.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewAnalysis: $24,300 resistance “not a good sign”Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed a 24-hour high for BTC/USD prior to the day’s Wall Street open.The pair had sunk below $21,000 in the first portion of the week, heightening nervousness among traders already wary of potential headwinds from the United States Federal Reserve.Likely chop for equities going into FOMC which expected $BTC and crypto chop around also today pic.twitter.com/GDj0GwlDXy— Rager (@Rager) July 26, 2022July 27 is set to reveal the Federal Open Markets Committee’s (FOMC) next base rate hike, expectations flitting between 75 and 100 basis points in size but favoring the former. Both, however, are likely unfavorable for crypto, as they reflect worries over both inflation and a willingness to bring the economy closer to recession to tame it.“I will remain in my short while we are below the range high at $22,200,” popular analyst Crypto Tony summarized in part of his latest Twitter post on the day. “Reclaiming the range high would result in a long position being opened as long as we remain above.”Others looked beyond the Fed event to warn that even Bitcoin’s recent trip to multi-week highs was not enough to change its overall bearish trend.“Rejection for Bitcoin despite the absence of supply at $24k is not a good sign,” on-chain monitoring resource Whalemap concluded. “Neither TA nor on-chain volume profile saw this level as resistance with realised price bands being the only one hinting on a possible rejection.”An accompanying chart of realized price by address — a breakdown of at what price different groups of BTC last moved — showed the relative absence of resistance at Bitcoin’s $24,280 local top. Bitcoin’s combined realized price sat at $21,800 at the time of writing, data from analytics firm Glassnode confirmed.Bitcoin realized price annotated chart. Source: Whalemap/ TwitterA “one-off” rate hikDiscussing the potential impact of the Fed further, meanwhile, trading firm QCP Capital said that historical precedent was in fact on the side of hodlers.Related: Will the Fed prevent BTC price from reaching $28K? — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekFed Chair Jerome Powell, staff predicted, would aim to reassure markets that future rate hikes would not be as drastic as this on”Every FOMC meeting this year has seen a positive immediate market reaction to the rate decision. We expect the same for this one,” they wrote in their latest market update released to Telegram channel subscribers.”Additionally, there is a good chance that Powell will indicate that this 75 bps hike is a one-off and that the Fed will be reverting to 50 bps on account of slowing growth and inflation easing up (with commodity prices falling across the board). Markets will react positively to this.That does not mean, however, that the rate announcement would be without its market jitters.”From a volatility perspective, every FOMC this year has been a disappointment with front-end implied [volatility] dropping hard right after,” QCP added. “Markets have been much more sensitive to data releases than FOMC. Realized volatility has been consistently higher post-CPI than post-FOMC.”QCP was referring to recent U.S. inflation data releases in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) monthly prints.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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IMF recession warning sees Bitcoin dip under $21K amid fresh $1M BTC price forecast

IMF recession warning sees Bitcoin dip under $21K amid fresh $1M BTC price forecast

Uverejnil používateľ | júl 26, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $21,000 for the first time in eight days on July 26 as Wall Street prepared for a decision on United States’ anti-inflation policy.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewFed jitters test market resolveData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD ending a period of sideways action on the Wall Street open, hitting lows of $20,788 on Bitstamp.Against its highs of $24,280 on July 20, the pair was now down over 14% as nerves across risk assets heightened in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates due July 27.The higher the base rate hike by the Fed, the more problematic the outlook for crypto investors as more tightening would mean more conservative conditions prevailing across the economy. “BTC has lost the Higher Low, which represented a lower timeframe technical uptrend,” he told Twitter followers alongside an illustrative chart. Elsewhere on macro, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its July 2022 World Economic Outlook, forecasting a significant slowdown in global growth, which should average 3.2% this year and 2.9% in 2023.”The risk of recession is particularly prominent in 2023, when in several economies growth is expected to bottom out, household savings accumulated during the pandemic will have declined, and even small shocks could cause economies to stall,” it read.”For example, according to the latest forecasts, the United States will have real GDP growth of only 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 on a year-over-year basis, which will make it increasingly challenging to avoid a recession.”Eyeing daily timeframes, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that with the Fed event still to come, Bitcoin had already lost its uptrend.”BTC has lost the Higher Low, which represented a lower timeframe technical uptrend,” he told Twitter followers on the day.”The trend has shifted.”A further post described the current pullback as the logical sequel to Bitcoin giving up its 200-week moving average level as support after briefly regaining it last week.This #BTC pullback is the technical aftermath of rejecting from the 200-week MA after a Weekly Close below it$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/SRl2Qlcdp3— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 26, 2022″Patience is a virtue,” fellow trader and analyst Anbessa continued. “Wait for a reversal pattern to re-enter. No setup for an entry at $21,6k, so we stay patient.”Anbessa additionally said that that there was “no need to FOMO” into the markets at current prices.Still in line for $1 million?Others had reason to be cautiously bullish on Bitcoin, with conviction increasing in line with timeframes under observation.Related: 3 signs Bitcoin price is forming a potential ‘macro bottom'”Volatile week playing out as expected,” fellow Twitter account IncomeSharks continued. In a more optimistic forecast, IncomeSharks said that it would eye a $30,000 price tag “in a few months.””Now is not the time to get bearish and sell, that was last week,” it added.PlanB, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow Bitcoin price models, meanwhile maintained that BTC/USD could still trade as high as $1 million by 2027.At the same time, he predicted on the day, U.S. equities would reach new heights never seen before.Some of you are afraid of macro and the link between bitcoin and stock markets etc.IMO the next ~5 years S&P500 will be in the $5K-$6K range and bitcoin in the $100K-$1M range. Short term is noise, long term is signal. pic.twitter.com/rhz4cigHRc— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) July 26, 2022

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price struggles to defend $21K as Coinbase faces new SEC wrath

Bitcoin price struggles to defend $21K as Coinbase faces new SEC wrath

Uverejnil používateľ | júl 26, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $21,000 on July 26 after it emerged that major the United States cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase was under investigation.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView$21,000 now “super critical” for BTC bullsData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed a swift reversion to lower levels for BTC/USD as reports emerged of fresh legal problems for Coinbase over securities trading.The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Bloomberg originally reported, was looking into whether the exchange had allowed users to trade unregistered securities.Part of a wider battle between the U.S. crypto industry and regulators over compliance, the move appeared to frighten the market, coming amid parallel allegations that a former executive conducted insider trading.Ironic the peak euphoric events of the Bull Market were Tesla buying #Bitcoin and Coinbase IPO’ing on the Stock Exchange Now in the last week Tesla has sold and Coinbase is under investigation by the SEC— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) July 26, 2022With that, Bitcoin was back to defending $21,000 as support on the day, with commentator Mark Cullen stressing that the level must hold for bulls to stay in control.“The 21k level for BTC is super critical for the bulls to hold if they have any hope of this regaining a bullish posture,” he told Twitter followers:“A 4hr close below there and the bitcoin ball is well and truly in the [bears’] court.”Trader Crypto Tony eyed a slightly lower level as a short-term floor, warning that a “drop deeper” was nonetheless a likely future outcome.$BTC / $USD – Update $20,700 is my target on this drop, following my chart yesterday. Looking for at least another drop to that level, but i do think we drop deeper ‼️ pic.twitter.com/WXYUCWZm6O— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) July 26, 2022

For its part, Coinbase had been anything but passive in the U.S. regulatory debate, last week releasing a dedicated blog post on why the SEC should change course.“If the Commission starts an open process where all of us can provide input, we look forward to sharing our thoughts on how to answer the important questions our petition raises, and we would encourage others to do the same,” chief policy officer Faryar Shirzad wrote:“We may not agree every step of the way, but it’s critical that this is an open and transparent process, where the public has a chance to offer their views. Policymaking at this level is far too important to be made in a black box.”Coinbase shares were down 3.7% pre-market, adding to 5.3% losses the previous day.Trader warns Ether could “take out lows” nextA similar mood was visible on altcoin markets, with fellow account TraderSZ forecasting a return to $1,000 for Ether (ETH) even before the bulk of Bitcoin’s losses materialized.Related: Will the Fed prevent BTC price from reaching $28K? — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekETH/USD, previously the best performer in the July crypto market rebound, traded at just over $1,400 at the time of writing. Versus its peak on July 24, the pair was down 15%.ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingViewOn July 25, TraderSZ warned that Ether and Bitcoin could both soon challenge lows, the latter aiming for $18,500.i dont like the way ethusd looks…i think even if it wants to go higher, makes more sense to take out the lows…which means btc could squeeze lower. going to cut my btc long. if it is low, il get back in higher up after low is in https://t.co/u6sFHpzPH1 pic.twitter.com/6BbfmB6VRY— TraderSZ (@trader1sz) July 25, 2022

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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