Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) may already be beginning its new macro uptrend if historical “hodl” habits repeat.That was the conclusion from research into the latest data covering the amount of the BTC supply dormant for one year or more as of July 2022.Hodled BTC hints that the bear market is overAccording to independent analyst Miles Johal, who uploaded the findings to social media on July 29, a “rounded top” formation in “hodled” BTC is in the process of completing. Once it does, the price should react — just like on multiple occasions before.The clue lies in Bitcoin’s HODL Waves metric, which breaks down the supply according to when each Bitcoin last moved. One year ago or more — the one-year HODL Wave — currently reflects the majority of the supply.Johal’s accompanying chart shows that the greater the proportion of the overall supply stationary for at least a year, the closer BTC/USD is to a macro bottom.More importantly, however, a slowing of the one-year HODL Wave — indicating accumulation is calming down — followed by the start of a reversal has always come at the start of a new long-term BTC price uptrend.This “rounded top” chart phenomenon is thus being keenly eyed as a potential source of hope with Bitcoin already making up lost ground.In comments, Johal argued that few had been paying attention to HODL Waves.Bitcoin 1-year+ HODL Wave annotated chart. Source: Miles Johal/ TwitterExchange balances lowest since 2018Separate data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, meanwhile, highlighted the ongoing trend of Bitcoin leaving exchanges.Related: Bitcoin bull run ‘getting interesting’ as BTC price hits 6-week highBTC in exchange wallets now accounts for just 12.6% of the overall supply, down 4.6% of the overall supply since the March 2020 crash, staff noted.#Bitcoin balance on exchanges continues its macro decline, reaching 12.6% of the Circulating Supply (2.4M $BTC).Exchange balances have now seen a macro outflow of over 4.6% of the circulating supply since the March 2020 ATH.Live Chart: https://t.co/zJnfaG05zt pic.twitter.com/vhKCudqGUr— glassnode (@glassnode) July 29, 2022In BTC terms, the figure is 2.4 million BTC now compared to 3.15 million BTC in March 2020. The number is the lowest since July 2018.BTC balance on exchanges chart. Source: GlassnodeEarlier this month, Cointelegraph reported on the accelerating trend of removing coins from exchanges.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) sought to pin $24,000 as support before the July 29 Wall Street open as fresh inflation data sparked worries for the euro.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewEurozone inflation estimate shows no peakData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD maintaining most of its latest gains after spiking to nearly $24,500 overnight. The day’s macro action delivered painful news for the European Economic Area (EEA), as the latest estimates for euro inflation came in at 8.9% for July — still climbing from June’s 8.6%.“Looking at the main components of euro area inflation, energy is expected to have the highest annual rate in July (39.7%, compared with 42.0% in June), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (9.8%, compared with 8.9% in June), non-energy industrial goods (4.5%, compared with 4.3% in June) and services (3.7%, compared with 3.4% in June),” an accompanying report compiled by Eurostat read.The data provided a curious contrast in some European Union member states, where growth outperformed expectations despite the highest inflation figures in the history of the euro’s existence. This led some commentators to suspect that all was not what it seemed.800B Euro spending fund papering over sad realities. https://t.co/31m7ZviKtb— Tamay Ozgokmen (@TOzgokmen) July 29, 2022The European Quandary, nonetheless, buoyed the United States dollar, which had been retreating from its latest two-decade highs against a basket of trading partner currencies through July.The U.S. dollar index (DXY) touched 105.54 on the day, its lowest reading since July 5, before rebounding to near 106 at the time of writing. A key inverse correlation for crypto markets, additional DXY advances could signal fresh pressure on BTC price action.“DXY just dropped to the previous high now support and seems to be holding. A possible bounce here to 107, 108 before further drop,” popular trading account Mikybull Crypto predicted in a fresh Twitter update, adding that this scenario would entail a pullback to $22,800 for BTC/USD.U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView—-In an arguably unexpected bullish turn, meanwhile, Arthur Hayes, ex-CEO of derivatives platform BitMEX, implied that a weaker dollar was now imminent.Related: Bitcoin bull run ‘getting interesting’ as BTC price hits 6-week highFollowing the Federal Reserve’s latest key rate hike, Hayes stated that the central bank’s return to accommodative monetary policy and more neutral rates had now begun.Fed Chair Jerome Powell, he wrote on July 28, would not be increasing hikes any longer, something he called the “Powell pivot.”The Powell Pivot is here, my body is ready and so is my portfolio. pic.twitter.com/hlI8lzqLcX— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) July 28, 2022

The theory, as Cointelegraph recently reported, revolves around the Fed having little room left to maneuver thanks to rate hikes increasing the likelihood of a deeper recession in the U.S. economy.The latest GDP data released this week had already placed the U.S. in a technical recession thanks to two straight quarters of negative numbers.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) delivered a swift six-week high into July 29 as the aftermath of the latest macro developments boosted risk assets. BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewMonthly close could seal 20% gainsData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView captured local highs of $24,445 for BTC/USD on Bitstamp, its best since the week beginning June 13.After consolidating around $23,000, bulls got a second wind to propel the market higher on the back of the United States Federal Reserve’s latest rake hikes and GDP data confirming that the U.S. was now in a recession.Risk assets outperformed across the board, with Bitcoin and altcoins joining gold in giving traders and analysts cause for positivity on the outlook. Gold #GOLD $GLD $GC_F held the lower boundary of a 23-month rectangle (yellow) that will serve as the Handle for a massive C&H. The bull market has started. Prices head north. Target headed to $3,000+ over next couple of years pic.twitter.com/ympPpf7ojP— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) July 28, 2022“This is getting interesting,” on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators tweeted in an update on its short and long signal thread for the daily BTC/USD chart on June 28. It eyed the potential for Bitcoin to make a higher high (HH) next:“All Trend Precognition signals printing Long on the D chart, plus the 21-DMA and the 50-DMA unwinding. If BTC can make a HH there is little friction to the next HH, and then the macro channel comes into range YES, this is still a bear market rally.”Material Indicators added that $25,000 would also be a key price level to watch should the higher high at $24,300 hold for a daily close.“If this rally can push past $25k, then $28k comes into focus very quickly,” part of a further post read.“Parabolic downtrend from ATH broken,” Blockware lead insights analyst William Clemente meanwhile summarized in a wry alternative take on current BTC price action in 2022.Versus the same point last week, BTC/USD was up a modest 4% at the time of writing. With two days left before the July weekly close, the pair was on track to seal monthly gains of over 20%, data from Coinglass confirmed.BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: CoinglassETH eyes key support reclaim above $1,700The picture on altcoins was similarly rosy on the day, with Ether (ETH) moving past $1,700 to challenge highs from the week of June 6.Related: 3 Bitcoin trading behaviors hint that BTC’s rebound to $24K is a ‘fakeout’Does this freak you out or get you very, very excited?#ETH https://t.co/Mc62xW4m1x— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) July 29, 2022

While Material Indicators played with the idea of a further retracement and lower low far beneath $1,000, others acknowledged the strength of short-term price action across altcoins.“$ETH as well as many Altcoins have performed successful retests of old resistances into new supports and have since rebounded strongly,” popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital reacted.Strong rebound from $ETH following a successful retestETH is slowly approaching its next immediate resistance (upper orange box)ETH would need to reclaim the bottom of that box as support if it is to move even higher#ETH #Crypto #Ethereum https://t.co/tkPGBVW76d pic.twitter.com/CiaYKNh6ha— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 28, 2022

Additional analysis demanded that ETH/USD reclaim a support zone beginning at around $1,730 for continuation.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.