Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin fails to beat $23.4K sellers as US payrolls upend inflation debate

Bitcoin fails to beat $23.4K sellers as US payrolls upend inflation debate

Uverejnil používateľ | aug 5, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) saw fresh rejection at $23,500 resistance on Aug. 5 as United States equities failed to embrace surprisingly strong payroll data.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView”Collapsing real wages” poke fun at payroll printData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as bears kept the market in its intraday trading range.Wall Street opened with a whimper despite U.S. payrolls for July coming in at twice estimated levels. The curious reaction had some analysts arguing that the numbers did not in fact show economic strength, but rather existing workers taking on second jobs due to inflation.“The gain of 528K jobs in July as the labor force participation rate fell to 62.1, means that most of the new jobs went to people who already had jobs,” gold bug Peter Schiff responded.“Collapsing real wages force many workers to moonlight to pay the bills. If the labor market were strong one job would be enough.”Schiff was far from alone in his suspicions about the state of employment, with Wealthion CEO Adam Taggart among others voicing distrust.This 6-sigma blowout jobs report smells wrong2 quarters of contracting GDP, Fed busy hiking, corp margins contracting, major companies freezing hires or actively laying off workers — these in no way indicate strong job creationI’m calling BS— Adam Taggart (@menlobear) August 5, 2022Kyle Bass, chief investment officer at Hayman Capital Management, meanwhile recalled the Federal Reserve’s optimism on employment in the years prior to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.Be a housing crisis unless we have a significant bout of unemployment. It’s never left my memory. Boy were they wrong. #recession #Jobs— Kyle Bass (@Jkylebass) August 5, 2022

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index thus both opened mildly down on the day before a relief rally entered, while Bitcoin recovered from a dip below $23,000 to retarget range highs at the time of writing. “Short corrections are possible, but trend is still up. Looking quite fine on the higher timeframes for Bitcoin,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe added.Nonetheless, data from the Binance order book had some concerned about whale activity. Notably, one entity was likely attempting to exit its position altogether at current levels, Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant warned.A whale who want to get out was/is controlling the market.Purple ($100k – $1M) made these steps 1. Bids below to support price2. Market buying to drive price up3. Price got pushed up into asks4. Heavy market selling5. Bids below are erasedData by @Mtrl_Scientist pic.twitter.com/XY8fezFHyd— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) August 5, 2022

“Historically, the purple class of whales has had the most influence over Bitcoin price,” monitoring resource Material Indicators, which provided the figures, added.Too many rejections?Bitcoin traders meanwhile weighed the possibility of a fresh leg down in the midst of repeated rejections at $24,500.Related: ‘Insane evidence’ Bitcoin has capitulated in past 2 months — analysisPopular trading account Profit Blue eyed $20,000 as the next major level of interest should the downtrend play out.#Bitcoin perspective update.The double top pattern that I warned about at 24k is playing out very nicely. There is still a lot more downside potential here, let’s find out how the 20k level holds next. pic.twitter.com/vyrV1rZCvO— PROFIT BLUE (@profit8lue) August 5, 2022

“$BTC Took out the lows and resting liquidity that was build up below $22.6K,” fellow trader Daan continued. “Nearest downside liquidity is now sitting all the way at the high volume node below $21K. The upside however has these levels much closer sitting at $23.6K–$24.7K. Seems favorable direction to me.”$BTC & $ETH Since the futures open this week.Crypto underperforming the rest of the markets this week that’s for certain. Trying to close the gap now though. pic.twitter.com/6JzM7MSRFf— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) August 5, 2022

Daan also noted that crypto was “underperforming the rest of the markets this week” but that this could already be changing.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price reaches $23.4K on 4.6% gains amid 'very mixed' outlook

Bitcoin price reaches $23.4K on 4.6% gains amid 'very mixed' outlook

Uverejnil používateľ | aug 5, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded overnight into Aug. 5 as a fresh trendline reclaim opened the door to further gains.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewDaily BTC pricechart sets up “tentative” long signalData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD bouncing off a local bottom at $22,400 to add around 4.6%.The pair had reversed direction right at key bid support on major exchange Binance, this helping avoid a more substantial loss of the 200-week moving average (MA) at around $22,800.While that key zone remained uncertain for bulls, a reclaim of the 21-period MA on the daily chart gave on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators cause for optimism.BTC/USD might not spark a long signal at the daily candle close, it told Twitter followers overnight.Helps if I post the chart with it. It was worth the wait. #BTC reclaimed the 21-DMA and the Trend Precognition A2+ aglo started flashing a new signal. It’s tentative until the D close. pic.twitter.com/gpTSxrikeT— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) August 5, 2022Trader and analyst Rekt Capital nonetheless voiced ongoing caution over Bitcoin’s poor record at turning the 200-week MA into solid support this bear market.“Historically, BTC has been able to generate tremendous buy-side interest at the 200-week MA,” he argued. “But if $BTC fails to retest the MA in the short-term, that would probably serve as further evidence that this recovery is merely one of relief.”BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 200-week MA. Source: TradingViewSimilarly conservative in its price outlook was trading firm QCP Capital, which in its latest market update sent to Telegram channel subscribers that the overall picture was “very mixed.”Pointing to complex macro triggers, QCP said that the United States Federal Reserve’s monetary policy would be a decisive market-moving factor going forward. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, it noted, had not achieved consensus over the pace and scope of future key interest rate hikes.“Economic data globally is pointing to poor growth and a coming global recession,” the update read, highlighting upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for July due for release on Aug. 10.“We continue to think that markets will trade sideways and will be sensitive to economic data releases. US CPI next Wednesday will be the next important one to watch.”Ethereum strength fails to convinceOn altcoins, Ether (ETH) and other large-cap tokens joined in Bitcoin’s relief push higher.Related: 3 key Ether derivatives metrics suggest $1,600 ETH support lacks strengthETH/USD circled $1,665 at the time of writing, with ETH/BTC nonetheless failing to crack resistance closer to the 0.075 mark after a second retest.ETH/BTC 1-day candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingViewWith the Ethereum merge around one month away, concerns were also increasing over the likelihood of a contentious hard fork of the network.“The more pressing and immediate risk in the crypto markets is the ETH merge that is scheduled to take place in September,” QCP continued.It added that markets had already “started to price in the possibility of a material hard fork.”The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price retests key $22.8K as metric points to 'BTC buying spree'

Bitcoin price retests key $22.8K as metric points to 'BTC buying spree'

Uverejnil používateľ | aug 4, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to base on Aug. 4 as higher levels gave way to a battle for the 200-week moving average (MA).BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBattle for classic Bitcoin price trendline rages Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD falling to repeatedly test the key bear market trendline as support.The day’s Wall Street open provided only a brief change in the mood, with the pair spiking above $23,000 before continuing previous behavior. The atmosphere was unchanged by news that investment giant BlackRock had partnered with major exchange Coinbase to provide crypto trading to clients.Instead, the familiar status quo involving the 200-week MA just above $22,800 entered another chapter, with bulls and bears still tussling for control. On-chain analytics resource Material Indicators noted that one class of whales active on the largest global exchange, Binance, was in a more risk-off mood on the day.“The purple class of whales have historically had the most influence over Bitcoin price action,” it wrote on Twitter alongside a chart of data from the Binance order book. “Interesting to see them dumping into other classes pumping.”BTC/USD buy and sell levels (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ TwitterSupport was thin near the spot price, the chart showed, with more substantial bid interest only at around $22,400 in the event of a breakdown. Resistance, meanwhile, was building at $23,400.“Lots of chop here on lower time frames but with this local sweep of the highs we finally look ready to get that flush down into downside targets,” popular trader Credible Crypto meanwhile added in his latest forecast on Aug. 3. “Looking for a higher low and a reversal to continue upwards to 25k+ $BTC.”Buying data hints of upcoming BTC supply shockOn the topic of buyer interest, on-chain data additionally showed a marked increase in the portion of the overall BTC turning illiquid.Related: ‘Insane evidence’ Bitcoin has capitulated in past 2 months — analysisOriginally created by William Clemente, lead insights analyst at Blockware and statistician Willy Woo, the Illiquid Supply Shock (ISS) ratio metric saw what popular commentator Game of Trades called a “massive spike” in July.ISSR increases when BTC is primarily being taken out of circulation, which in turn increases the likelihood of a price surge based on demand outweighing supply.“The HODLers have gone on a buying spree unlike anything seen since 2018,” Game of Trades commented on the day, uploading SSR data hosted by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.Bitcoin Illiquid Supply Shock ratio annotated chart. Source: Games of Trades/ TwitterGlassnode itself meanwhile noted that hodlers en masse were still selling more BTC at a loss than a profit, but that demand was likewise apt to be increasing currently.“This is typical of bear markets, and a reversal is often associated with a pick up in demand,” it commented on a chart showing realized profits and losses per day.Bitcoin realized profit and loss annotated chart. Source: Glassnode/ TwitterThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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'Insane evidence' Bitcoin has capitulated in past 2 months — analysis

'Insane evidence' Bitcoin has capitulated in past 2 months — analysis

Uverejnil používateľ | aug 4, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) is providing overwhelming evidence that it is capitulating, and it is time to flip bullish as a result, new analysis believes.In a Twitter thread on Aug. 3, Charles Edwards, CEO of crypto asset manager Capriole, revealed what he called the “The 12 Bitcoin Capitulations.””Risk-returns skewed positively” for BitcoinWith BTC price action recovering from multi-year lows but still hovering near key bear market support, opinions vary widely as to what will happen next.Some are demanding a return to levels even lower than June’s $17,600 trough, while others argue that a “bear market relief rally” could take BTC/USD as high as $40,000 first.For Edwards, the raw evidence suggests that the past months have been bearish enough, and that behind the scenes, Bitcoin has been quietly capitulating.“The raw count of evidence for major Bitcoin capitulation today is insane,” he wrote about his twelve key examples. “Each occurrence alone is a rare event and adds to the probability that forward risk-returns are skewed positively.”In addition to popular on-chain signals previously covered by Cointelegraph including MVRV and NUPL, Edwards’ evidence includes macro triggers such as poor United States equities performance and stagnant M2 money supply growth.“We have just seen the _worst_ inflation-adjusted downdraws in traditional markets in the last 8 generations. Enough said,” he continued, noting that the S&P 500 had delivered its worst returns in real terms since 1872.S&P 500 returns annotated chart. Source: Charles Edwards/ TwitterThe cherry on the cake in the 2022 Bitcoin bear market, however, is the rate at which industry players themselves have capitulated.For Edwards, bankruptcy events at Celsius, Voyager and others, combined with Tesla selling the majority of its BTC holdings at a loss, is the “ultimate sign of capitulation.” “Take a look at the level of institutional capitulation here,” he commented.“Leverage is one of the best indicators for relative over- and under-valuation in Bitcoin, and many major leveraged crypto institutions have been wiped out.”According to separate data from monitoring resource Bitcoin Treasuries, Tesla remains the public company with the second-largest BTC reserves but is now far behind leader MicroStrategy and its 129,698 BTC stack.Public companies’ Bitcoin holdings as of Aug. 4 (screenshot). Source: Bitcoin Treasuries”Great accumulation zone” returnsAs Cointelegraph recently noted, capitulation has also been apparent among Bitcoin miners since the dip to the lowest prices since late 2020.Related: Historically accurate Bitcoin metric exits buy zone in ‘unprecedented’ 2022 bear marketAfter initially selling their BTC inventory, however, miners have staged a dramatic about turn, new data suggests, in yet another sign that the worst of the capitulation may already be over.Beyond miners, the amount of the BTC supply being transferred at a lower price than that which was paid for it has hit levels Edwards says are indicative of accumulation.Bitcoin % supply transferred at a loss annotated chart. Source: Charles Edwards/ Twitter”The percentage of total supply transferred at a loss hit 1.9% last month,” he wrote alongside a chart from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. “Historically, when this metric breaches 1.5% it demonstrates that a large portion of the market is in pain. Most were also great accumulation zones.”The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price battles $23.5K resistance amid relief over Pelosi Taiwan trip

Bitcoin price battles $23.5K resistance amid relief over Pelosi Taiwan trip

Uverejnil používateľ | aug 3, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) rose to daily resistance at the Aug. 3 Wall Street open as United States equities gained on relief over Taiwan.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewStocks gain as US dollar coilsData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD returning to the area just below $23,500 which had figured as resistance since the start of the month.The pair had previously held the same zone as support, and was now deciding on whether a new resistance/ support flip was on the cards. For popular trader Crypto Tony, $23,500 was thus the price to watch to long BTC.$BTC / $USD – Update Keep it simple this morning on #Bitcoin ..- Long above resistance at $23,500- Short below support at $22,650 pic.twitter.com/onXXRvdXx8— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) August 3, 2022To the downside, fellow trader Pentoshi highlighted the area between $21,800 and $22,000 as the “line in the sand” for BTC.Stocks performed well on the day, meanwhile, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index gaining 1.2% and 2%, respectively, after the open. News that U.S. house speaker Nancy Pelosi had begun a visit to Taiwan without repercussions from China buoyed the mood.The U.S. dollar index (DXY), after solid gains of its own at the start of the week, consolidated after facing resistance at 106.8 on hourly timeframes. The intra-day lows matched with highs from May, analysis noted, with the potential for new two-decade highs still in play in what would represent friction for crypto and risk assets.”As the dollar starts to show potential signs of strength (and yields begin to rip higher), will stocks continue to remain resilient? Price action throughout 2022 tells us ‘no,'” market analyst Caleb Franzen warned.U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewARK taps “emerging risk-on environment”In a summary of the status quo in Bitcoin and Ether (ETH), meanwhile, investment firm ARK Invest painted a mixed picture of where the market could go in 2022.Related: ARK Invest ‘neutral to positive’ on Bitcoin price as analysts await capitulationIn the latest edition of its research series, “The Bitcoin Monthly,” ARK analysts including CEO, Cathie Wood and others said that “all eyes” were now on macro triggers.”Given the positive correlation between bitcoin and US equities since COVID, the US being the leading price mover of bitcoin suggests an emerging risk-on market environment,” they wrote.The U.S., ARK added, had likely represented the majority of buy interest in Bitcoin during July’s recovery.Going forward, however, the odds of an extended rebound were uncertain. Describing its stance as “neutral,” ARK delivered a potential “unlikely” bearish target of just under $14,000.”Comparable to the selloff at the peak of the COVID crisis, bitcoin’s price did not reach its delta cost basis, a price adjusted cost basis that subtracts the life-to date moving average of market price from its market cost basis and serves as bitcoin’s strongest support level,” the report stated.”While the likelihood of touching its delta cost basis has diminished, bitcoin’s downside risk in a bear market technically stands at its delta cost basis, currently $13,890.”Bitcoin cost basis chart (screenshot). Source: ARK InvestThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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