Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) pierced the top of a stubborn trading range on Aug. 11 as a decidedly awkward rally took hold of risk assets.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin retracement warnings intensify near $25,000Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting highs of $24,750 on Bitstamp, marking its best performance since June 13.The pair had attempted several breakouts to the top of the range in prior weeks, these all failing in the face of stiff selling pressure. New United States inflation data released this week formed a long-awaited catalyst for change, however, with Bitcoin and altcoins rising in step with equities as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for July suggested that inflation had peaked.On Aug. 10, the day of the release, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index gained 2.1% and 1.9% respectively. BTC/USD, on the other hand, saw a daily candle of around $900.Rather than pile on the optimism, however, market commentators were anything but blanket bullish as the dust settled. Sentiment, investor Raoul Pal noted, was treating the post-CPI rally as a black sheep.“Well, this appears to be one of the most hated rallies I’ve seen in quite few years in equities,” he told Twitter followers in a dedicated thread.Pal nonetheless argued that there was a “very decent chance” that equities had seen their lows in June.Forecasting a major change of tune in crypto, meanwhile, popular trader and analyst Il Capo of Crypto stuck by $25,500 as the maximum likely target before a new downtrend began.Almost there. https://t.co/oJFpD5BVz9 pic.twitter.com/2pjpUgw85T— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) August 11, 2022“$BTC Pumped almost 40%. Huge Possibility, Retrace Coming. Buy The Dip,” fellow account Jibon continued in further Twitter comments.A slightly more hopeful Crypto Tony meanwhile said that hodlers would be “in for a treat” if the range high managed to hold.Eyeing potential similarities between the Bitcoin chart now and in March 2020, BTCfuel added that a further breakout was not off the cards.The #Bitcoin March 2020 bull trap and crash are quite similar to the current setup. Bitcoin looks like breaking out right now pic.twitter.com/WkITQ2G7py— BTCfuel (@BTCfuel) August 10, 2022

Doubts emerge over Ethereum rallyThe impressive performance across altcoins meanwhile put largest altcoin Ether (ETH) firmly in the spotlight after ETH/USD gained over 11%.Related: Bitcoin dominance hits 6-month lows as metric proclaims new ‘alt season’The pair continued its gains on the day, passing $1,900 for the first time since June 6 and now approaching the psychologically significant $2,000 mark.The CPI momentum added to an already excitable Ethereum market, with the Goerli testnet merge — a  key preparatory step for the full Merge event in September — concluding successfully.“Since the start of this bear market rally, in the middle of June, Ethereum is gaining dominance in terms of trading volume relative to Bitcoin. In the latest few days, Ethereum and Bitcoin Dominance has even crossed,” Maartuun, a contributing analyst at on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, wrote in a blog post on Aug. 10.Maartuun cautioned that historical precedent nonetheless did not favor a sustained rally across crypto should this continue to be led by ETH.“It is clear that Ethereum is very populair on exchanges, because of the gaining dominance. That makes sense because of the upcoming 2.0 merge,” he added. However, from my 5-year experience in the cryptomarket, rally’s which are led by Ethereum are usually not the healthiest thing for the market. As you already could read in my previous analysis, I’m very conservative. Especially because Ethereum already made a > 100% move from the lows:”However, from my 5-year experience in the cryptomarket, rally’s which are led by Ethereum are usually not the healthiest thing for the market. As you already could read in my previous analysis, I’m very conservative. Especially because Ethereum already made a > 100% move from the lows.”ETH/USD 1-day candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing fresh competition from altcoins this month as data shows that — technically — it is already “alt season.”Figures from CoinMarketCap and TradingView show that BTC currently makes up around 41% of the overall crypto market capitalization — its lowest since the start of 2022.Bitcoin sheds market cap prowessAfter suffering at the hands of the Terra LUNA — now renamed Terra Classic (LUNC) — collapse, altcoin markets have rallied considerably in recent months. Alongside Bitcoin’s return from 18-month lows of $17,600 in June, altcoins have enjoyed their own renaissance, one tha is now giving Bitcoin bulls a run for their money. According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin’s market cap share is now at its lowest since mid-January, with the largest altcoin Ether (ETH), in particular, stealing the limelight in recent weeks.From lows of 14.3% on June 19, Ethereum’s market cap dominance now stands at 19%.Bitcoin market cap dominance 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingViewThe case for altcoin bets is further bolstered by a dedicated metric tasked with calling “altseason” — a period where altcoins outshine Bitcoin as investments.With a normalized score of 94/100, the Altcoin Season Index is currently flashing its most convincing altseason reading since June 2021. The closer to zero the score is, the more the metric favors Bitcoin over altcoins. Alt season is called once “75% of the Top 50 coins performed better than Bitcoin over the last season,” its description explains, adding that a “season” equates to the past 90 days.Altcoin Season Index (screenshot). Source: Blockchaincenter.Bitfinex ETH long bets crash to May lowsControversy over the upcoming Merge event, meanwhile, meant that ETH performed similarly unconvincingly on short timeframes this week.Related: What the fork? Ethereum’s potential forked ETHW token is trading under $100In the 24 hours to the time of writing on Aug. 9, ETH/USD was down almost 7%, while BTC/USD shed $1,000 in hours on the day.Nerves over the Aug. 10 United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) readout contributed to the downside, analysts including Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe argued.Whale closed 300.000 Long positions on BitfinexLet’s find out WHY this is important and WHAT it could mean for the market #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #Bitfinex #Futures pic.twitter.com/oiAotLM1Ll— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) August 8, 2022On-chain monitors, meanwhile, noted that a major player on exchange Bitfinex had drastically reduced their long ETH exposure, indicative of a belief that downside was all but guaranteed next.At the time of writing, longs were at the same lows as immediately before May’s Terra incident.ETH/USD longs 1-day candle chart (Bitfinex). Source: TradingViewVan de Poppe nonetheless called for constraint when it came to upcoming ETH price action.”People already flashing targets of $300 or $600 for Ethereum on the first slight correction,” he tweeted. “There’s literally no need for that, despite the fact that people are heavily stuck in their bias. Due to that bias, they won’t be able to watch markets objectively.”ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.