Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin price clings to $20K as analyst says Fed ‘buried’ soft landing

Bitcoin price clings to $20K as analyst says Fed ‘buried’ soft landing

Uverejnil používateľ | aug 31, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) fluctuated around the key $20,000 mark into Aug. 31 as the outlook on United States inflation darkened.Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD again dipping below the last halving cycle’s top overnight, only to regain lost ground to circle $20,300 on the day.The rangebound moves accompanied modest recoveries for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index up 0.15% and 0.6% within the first hour’s trading, respectively.Concerns over the Federal Reserve’s plans on tackling inflation after last week’s gloomy speech by Chair Jerome Powell nonetheless lingered.Despite Powell’s earlier rhetoric, Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, told mainstream media that the entire concept of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy was now shelved.Powell’s speech had in fact “buried the concept of a soft landing,” she explained to Bloomberg, and showed that the Fed instead planned to keep growth in check to “grind inflation down.”“It is a torturous process but less torturous and less painful than an abrupt recession,” Swonk added.With the mood thus firmly conservative on risk assets, attention likewise remained on the strength of the dollar as it continued to circle twenty-year highs.“For risk-on assets, including Bitcoin, it’s essential to have a stable Dollar or a weak Dollar, as upwards pressure can be expected on the markets,” Michaël van de Poppe, CEO of trading firm Eight Global, told Twitter followers. “The coming month is going to be important for the $DXY. And this potential bearish divergence could be the first signal.”U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewMarkets “at the craps table” over Fed rate hikeSeptember, traditionally a “red” candle month for Bitcoin, also promised an essential Fed decision on key rate hikes, along with August Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.Related: Bitcoin mining has never been more competitive even as BTC loses 13% in AugustExpectations favored a 75-basis-point hike echoing July, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed on the day.“Instead of looking to the broader rate path, or the terminal rate, markets are back to trading the 21 Sep FOMC odds – whether they will hike 50bp or 75bp,” trading firm QCP Capital told Telegram channel subscribers in its latest market update.“Worse still, Powell has effectively handed this policy decision to the 2 Sep NFP and the 13 Sep CPI — which basically means investors are now all at the craps table, betting on over or under.”TAdditional impetus for a larger rate hike, QCP added, could be due to the longer-than-normal gap between July’s revision and September thanks to the August lull.Normally, rate hike decisions are taken on a monthly basis.Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME GroupThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin mining has never been more competitive even as BTC loses 13% in August

Bitcoin mining has never been more competitive even as BTC loses 13% in August

Uverejnil používateľ | aug 31, 2022 |

Data from on-chain monitoring resource BTC.com confirms that on Aug. 31, Bitcoin’s network difficulty hit new all-time highs.Bitcoin seals biggest difficulty jum since start of 2022Despite the recent BTC price drawdowns, Bitcoin’s network fundamentals are telling an optimistic tale as August comes to a close.Both difficulty and hash rate are climbing, reflecting conviction among miners over long-term profitability of their network participation. It also suggests that the mining sector is absorbing lower profits versus costs in the short term.Difficulty, which added 9.26% at its Aug. 31 automated readjustment, now stands at its highest ever. Competition among miners is as healthy as ever.For comparison, the last time that difficulty increased more at once was in January (9.32%), and before that, in August 2021 (13.24%).According to BTC.com, hash rate now stands at an average 221 exahashes per second (EH/s), a hair off its highest-ever recorded average reading of 223 EH/s from just before May’s Terra LUNA implosion.Bitcoin (BTC) fundamentals have delivered a “welcome uptick” which research says takes the edge off a classic bear market.“Personally, I think as more hashrate comes from the US, we’ll see a new annual seasonal trend like we used to see in China. ie hot months lower hashrate/helping to stabilize grid, cool months higher hashrate,” macro analyst Jason Deane wrote in part of a Twitter response to the difficulty readjustment.Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: BTC.comBitcoin “barely hanging on”The numbers provide a welcome counterpoint to troubled spot markets and gloomy projections for the rest of 2022.Related: BTC price top warnings emerge as 10K BTC leaves wallet after 9 yearsWith BTC/USD set to end August down almost 13%, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode said that a rebound in fundamentals would be a helpful antidote to an otherwise sour environment.“It remains plausible that Bitcoin is in a bottom formation range and would be historically similar to all past bear markets,” it concluded in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” released on Aug. 30 and titled “Bitcoin Barely Hanging On.”“However, Bitcoin prices are just barely hanging on, and any uptick in the fundamentals would be a welcome change.”BTC/USD circled $20,150 at the time of writing, having recovered from sub-$20,000 levels overnight, as per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin erases latest gains with BTC price back below $20K as dollar spikes

Bitcoin erases latest gains with BTC price back below $20K as dollar spikes

Uverejnil používateľ | aug 30, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) fell back below $20,000 after the Aug. 30 Wall Street open as data showed hodlers selling at a loss.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewJune lows look increasingly attractiveData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView captured the latest dive below the 2017 bull market peak for BTC/USD, with United States equities dropping in step.The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index lost 1.1% and 1.25% in the first hour, respectively, while BTC/USD shed 2.5% during a single hourly candle.The latest moves came as no surprise to traders already wary of a deeper correction for the largest cryptocurrency. Previously, many had called for a retracement toward the macro lows seen in June. For popular trader Crypto Ed, both Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) offered good opportunities for an upcoming short trade. In Bitcoin’s case, the target was $18,000 if the area of around $19,800 failed to hold.Fellow popular account Il Capo of Crypto stuck by a prognosis for major support at $19,000, with $16,000 then becoming a target should weakness prevail.$BTC https://t.co/Mwr6gx07F8 pic.twitter.com/tJMptAEvFt— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) August 30, 2022He subsequently noted that fading ask positions on derivatives platforms had opened up the potential for a fresh relief bounce.“Feels like Bitcoin has a date with the red range below, between $17.8k–$18.9k. Is it guaranteed? Absolutely not, but it’s certainly something I’ll be watching for,” Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, stated the day prior alongside various charts. “Quite simply, each breakdown has resulted in price retesting the low of the prior selloff. These “capitulation wicks” became the nice price target once the support trendline failed, eventually leading to a new “capitulation wick.” Bulls want this pattern to end.”Weekly lows stood at $19,500 for BTC/USD, these coming in slowfor a test as the pair slid below $19,800 at the time of writing.Dollar heads higher Turning to the U.S. dollar as risk assets tumbled, analyst JACKIS hoped that a top would soon be in after twenty-year highs reappeared this week.Related: BTC price top warnings emerge as 10K BTC leaves wallet after 9 years$DXY closed the daily truly as an SFP and continues its correction today.Remember lads, not confirmed top, until the low is lost but its a startA break of the low would most likely result in BTC going to 22.5K ✍️ https://t.co/5kV7yz7gLU pic.twitter.com/PVbR9wDGJv— JACKIS (@i_am_jackis) August 30, 2022

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) nonetheless saw a spike on the day, taking it above 109 and to within 0.5 of the highs from the day prior. Should an about turn occur on shorter timeframes, he forecast, Bitcoin could gain the momentum to crack $22,500.U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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BTC price top warnings emerge as 10K BTC leaves wallet after 9 years

BTC price top warnings emerge as 10K BTC leaves wallet after 9 years

Uverejnil používateľ | aug 30, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) hodlers are asking questions after 10,000 BTC dormant since 2013 suddenly left its wallet.On-chain data flagged on Aug. 28-29 confirmed a large tranche of Bitcoin had become liquid again after nearly a decade.“Lawless era” Bitcoin hit the roadAnalysts first began to notice curiously high transaction volumes this weekend as 5,000 BTC was included in a block.Having stayed in the same wallet since 2013, the funds, the owner of which remains unknown, were soon joined by a near identical 5,000 BTC a day later.In total, 10,000 BTC moved for the first time since 2013, and on-chain sleuths are curious as to the motive of the whale in charge.Analysis of the destination wallets has concluded that the funds were not sent to anexchange for sale. Instead, they were split among a large number of new wallets.Considering the reasoning behind the move, Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, suggested that privacy may play a part.Quick investigation of @IT_Tech_PL 1. Bitcoin moved to new address2. From new address to multiple addresses of small amountsBasically the scenario as @ki_young_ju described herehttps://t.co/FHgIJsv24P— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) August 29, 2022Maartunn linked to comments from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who last week argued that those in ownership of “older” coins, especially in large amounts, likely needed to avoid drawing attention to their now greatly-increased wealth. In 2013, BTC/USD traded at a maximum of around $1,165.For Ki, these coins were “minted in the lawless era.”“We uncovered that these whales were highly likely: a) early visionaries that accumulated bitcoin via mining and trading, and b) coins coming from the Cryptsy bitcoin exchange just before it was ‘hacked’ (allegedly stolen customer funds),” a CryptoQuant research piece into old fund movements from Aug. 3 added.Just six such transactions in Bitcoin historyThe transactions were, meanwhile, picked up by the Whale Shadows indicator by Philip Swift, creator of on-chain analytics resource LookIntoBitcoin. Related: US dollar hits new 20-year high — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekClearly showing the two spikes in older coins occurring, the data prompted discussion over their implication for BTC price action.As Swift and CryptoQuant showed, previous such spikes marked local highs for BTC/USD throughout Bitcoin’s history.Bitcoin whale shadows annotated chart. Source: Philip Swift/ TwitterOther social media commentators even suggested that the funds were tied to the rehabilitation process at defunct exchange Mt. Gox. As Cointelegraph reported, fears that compensation of creditors would begin this weekend, sparking a significant sell-off, ultimately appeared unfounded.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin reaches 'short squeeze' trigger zone as BTC price nears $20.4K

Bitcoin reaches 'short squeeze' trigger zone as BTC price nears $20.4K

Uverejnil používateľ | aug 29, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) regained some lost ground at the Aug. 29 Wall Street open amid talk of an imminent short squeeze.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewShorts lose out in modest squeeze higher for BTCData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD climbing to near $20,400 on Bitstamp as United States equities began trading.The move signaled welcome relief for hodlers, who had looked on as the pair dove increasingly below $20,000 during the weekend.Now, with the market “aggressively short positioned,” conditions appeared to favor a further relief bounce to burn those nursing short trades.Looks like we’re doing a little bearbecue. https://t.co/smRfCWC2C0— Byzantine General (@ByzGeneral) August 29, 2022“You know what is next,” popular Twitter account Il Capo of Crypto warned, reinforcing his belief that the bounce would be followed by a deeper retracement.Short squeeze https://t.co/D8rNtSVwsl— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) August 29, 2022

Data from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass meanwhile showed liquidations beginning to mount at the time of writing, with combined cross-crypto liquidations at $166 million in 24 hours.U.S. stocks themselves opened slightly in the red, while the U.S. dollar index (DXY), having earlier put in a new twenty-year high, began retargeting its peak after a prior retracement.U.S. stock markets are opening red, while the $DXY shows some weakness today.Wouldn’t expect much further downside on risk-on assets and expect a slight bounce through the day.— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) August 29, 2022

“$DXY could be nearing its macro top similar way Bitcoin has in April 2021,” trader JACKIS summarized. “Many bearish divergences seen on the Daily chart is defo something to keep an eye on. The moment DXY tops is the moment major assets print the macro bottom.”U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView”Hard to get too excited”Zooming out, the mood among analysts remained lackluster in the face of ongoing macro turmoil.Related: US dollar hits new 20-year high — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekAfter last week’s Federal Reserve comments removed any hope of a policy pivot, stocks had little impetus for optimism as quantitative tightening, known as QT, looked set to continue.”It’s hard to get too excited about $BTC and major pump pumps when the SPX looks like this,” trader and analyst Josh Rager concluded on the day. “There are going to be outlier assets that outperform and still pump in this bearish environment. But overall, outside of those tokens it’s hard to want to go heavy with equities downtrend.”ALtcoins meanwhile offered mixed progress as Bitcoin gained, with Ether (ETH) leading the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap.ETH/USD traded up around 6% on the day at the time of writing, passing $1,500.ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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