Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin price charges higher, but whales line up to sell BTC at $20K

Bitcoin (BTC) staged a welcome comeback after the Sept. 28 Wall Street open as bulls faced off with whale-sized sellers.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewWhales lie in wait at $20,000Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining over $1,000 on the day to see highs of $19,656 on Bitstamp.The move characteristically copied an uptick for United States equities, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index up 1.5% and 2.2%, respectively.Now, analysis warned that the area of around $20,000 was still flush with large-volume traders eager to continue profit-taking.The BTC/USD chart on major exchange Binance “shows brown Mega Whales dumping into BTC support to minimize slippage,” analytics resource Material Indicators commented. An accompanying snapshot confirmed the bulk of resistance lying in wait at just below the $20,000 boundary.“Let’s see if $19.5k holds to set up another potential run at the R/S flip zone ~$20k,” Material Indicators added.BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ TwitterTo the downside, meanwhile, analyst Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, noted a large area of bid interest between $18,000 and $18,500.This was worth around $65 million as of Sept. 28, potentially forming a cushion of support. As Cointelegraph reported, the area below June’s $17,600 low is conversely devoid of bid support, opening up the potential for a cascade toward $12,000.In terms of the strength of the current bounce, traders were skeptical, with popular Twitter account Cheds cautioning on exposure with “bulls starting to celebrate.”At the time of writing, BTC/USD traded around the $19,500 mark.Related: More ancient Bitcoin leaves its wallet after 10-year hibernationDollar slumps after latest two-decade highOn macro, the story of the day was the United Kingdom’s central bank returning to quantitative easing (QE) after financial turmoil hit its currency and bond market.The Bank of England sparked an instant recovery for GBP/USD after the pair hit all-time lows. The U.S. dollar, already coming off twenty-year highs, continued to give back gains.The U.S. dollar index (DXY) looked set to return below 113 at the time of writing, down a full 1.5 points on the day.“Looks like we’ll finish the week out strong for Bitcoin and Stocks as we head into Pumptober,” a hopeful IncomeSharks reacted.U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin 'great detox' could trigger a BTC price drop to $12K — Research

Bitcoin (BTC) is in a “dire condition” when it comes to adoption — but a silver lining is already visible, new research says.In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, the Week On-Chain, crypto analytics firm Glassnode said that Bitcoin was going through a “great detox.”Bitcoin adoption returns to March 2020Current BTC price action is pressuring everyone from long-term holders (LTHs) to miners, and relief is hard to come by.Macro turmoil and resistance at $20,000 is keeping BTC/USD at levels visited only once since 2020.With this week’s push above $20,000 accompanied by major profit-taking, warnings remain that more pain is due for the market first before a recovery takes place.For Glassnode, sustained lower levels are causing a seismic shift in the Bitcoin investor profile, with retail and speculators — so-called short-term holders (STHs) — now pushed out.“Network activity remains in a dire condition as network adoption levels slump to levels last seen during the COVID crisis,” it summarized.“However, one constructive observation would be the expulsion of retail participants from the network leaving just the HODLers class, career traders and everyday Bitcoin users remaining. This suggests the user-base is at its foundational level.”This reset in network composition could provide a positive nuance in the face of flatlining on-chain adoption.LTHs, as Cointelegraph reported this week, are notorious for their stubbornness during bear markets, and data shows that they are in no mood to sell.“The HODLer class remain resolute with both mature coin USD wealth reaching ATHs, and a multitude of lifespan metrics fully resetting to historical lows, emphasizing the unwillingness to spend held coins,” Glassnode continued, referencing its latest data analysis. “This suggests the majority of current market churn is associated with the Short-Term Holder class.””Large supply airgap” threatens a return to $12,000Despite the increasing prevalence of LTHs as an investor majority, STHs could nonetheless produce some dramatic downside in the event of Bitcoin falling below the $17,600 macro lows seen in June this year.Related: BTC price stays under $19K amid hopes Q4 will end Bitcoin bear marketThis, Glassnode explains, comes as a result of the volume gap below that level — meaning that any sell-off could easily snowball into the next bid zone, currently at $12,000.“A large supply airgap is apparent below $18k until the $11k–$12k range,” the Week On-Chain states elsewhere. “Trading below the current cycle low would put an extraordinary volume of Short-Term Holder coins into a deep unrealized loss, which may exacerbate downside reflexivity, and trigger yet another wide ranging capitulation event.”An accompanying chart showed the lack of volume between the two price areas, this contrasting starkly with the area around $20,000, now full of STH interest.Bitcoin entity-adjusted unspent realized price distribution annotated chart (screenshot). Source: GlassnodeMacro factors, meanwhile, have chiefly contributed to other warnings over BTC price stability in recent weeks and months, with predictions including BTC/USD dropping below $10,000.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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BTC price stays under $19K amid hopes Q4 will end Bitcoin bear market

Bitcoin (BTC) hit new weekly lows into Sep. 28 as risk asset drawdown continued overnight.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewTrader: “First new lows” before Q4 recoveryData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD falling to $18,461 on Bitstamp, down almost $2,000 versus the previous day’s high. The change of direction came in lock step with stocks, which turned red after initially heading marginally higher at the Wall Street open.The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index ultimately finished the day down 0.25% and up 0.25%, respectively. Cypto, however, failed to recoup its losses, and while hopes were for Q4 to bring about a more solid recovery, traders were betting on the pain continuing first.Popular Twitter account Il Capo of Crypto appeared to confirm that he favored October copying last year’s performance — something which earned it the nickname “Uptober.”In comments, he added that he was “expecting bullish Q4. But first new lows.”Fellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile drew attention to the hurdles Bitcoin needed to overcome on monthly timeframes.“Already a sharp BTC rejection at the green ~$19800 level,” he wrote in a tweet about the upcoming monthly candle close. “Continued see-sawing in and around this level is to be expected as $BTC approaches its Monthly Close. Most important will be how the Monthly Candle actually closes relative to the green Range Low.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ TwitterRekt Capital added that a close below that green line would mean an exit from the monthly range in place since late 2020.Betting on bears bowing outDiscussing when the bear market of 2022 could end, opinions differed over the use of data from previous halving cycles.Related: More ancient Bitcoin leaves its wallet after 10-year hibernationUploading a comparative chart, Luke Martin, host of the STACKS Podcast, noted that it had been 322 days since Bitcoin’s last all-time high of $69,000.After the 2017 prior all-time high, BTC/USD spent 364 days in a bear market, suggesting that the end could be due if history were to repeat itself.“Cycle timing here is optimal,” Charles Edwards, creator of crypto asset manager Capriole, reacted.Others were less convinced, with tedtalksmacro drawing attention to the fact that the macro environment was nothing like it was in 2018, something Martin acknowledged.BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Luke Martin/ TwitterAs Cointelegraph reported, the United States Federal Reserve has given no commitment to halting the interest rate hikes pressuring risk assets, including crypto, this year.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price loses $20K as trader warns US dollar 'not quite topped out'

Bitcoin (BTC) crossed under $20,000 after the Sept. 27 Wall Street open as United States equities inched higher.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewU.S. dollar has room to run — traderData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed the $20,000 mark barely remaining as tentative support on the day.BTC/USD had managed local highs of $20,344 on Bitstamp overnight, while retracing U.S. dollar strength gave modest relief to risk assets across the board. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index had been up 0.4% and 0.65%, respectively, after two hours’ trading, but subsequently reversed.At the same time, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) was down 0.15% on the day, back below the 114 mark but still near its highest since mid-2002. “U.S. open coming up. Green numbers, while Yields & $DXY are correcting,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, commented. “Time for Q4 to be good for crypto.” Popular trader Crypto Tony nonetheless cautioned on assuming that DXY had put in a major top.“Bad news for the Bitcoin pump, the Dollar has not quite topped out yet, so we are looking for more pumps on the dollar and setbacks on $BTC,” he decided. “Keep an eye on both of these if you plan on leveraging BTC.”U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingViewBinance BTC/USDT volume hits all-time highWith days to go before the monthly close, further BTC price volatility was expected, while traders demanded that October — traditionally a better month than September for crypto return — deliver the goods in 2022.Related: More ancient Bitcoin leaves its wallet after 10-year hibernation“Tracking price action over the past decade, Sept. has far and away been the worst performing month for BTC — closing positive only 20% of the time,” popular trading account Crypto Kaleo observed in a thread on Sept. 26. “Silver lining — Oct. has been one of the best months for BTC — positive 78% of the time w/ a median gain of 28%.”A close above $20,000 would be just enough for Bitcoin’s first “green” September since 2016.BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: CoinglassIn a sign of what the monthly close might have in store, meanwhile, major exchange Binance recorded its highest-ever daily trading volume for its BTC/USDT pair, with over 439,000 BTC equivalent changing hands.BTC/USDT 1-day candle chart (Binance) with volume. Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin, British Pound trading volume soars 1150% as UK's currency risks dollar parity

Bitcoin (BTC) will see increased interest from the United Kingdom “very quickly” as fiat currency volatility makes BTC look like a stablecoin.That was the conclusion from Gabor Gurbacs, strategy adviser at investment giant VanEck, one of many flagging Bitcoin’s appeal over the pound this week.UK becomes fertile ground for Bitcoin “orange pill”As the U.S. dollar runs rampant, its strength has come at the expense of trading partner currencies, notably the euro, pound and Japanese yen.The pound’s disintegration gathered pace this week, however, as GBP/USD hit its lowest on record at nearly $1.03.With the United Kingdom’s central bank, the Bank of England, avoiding interventions so far, nerves are showing as purchasing power takes a double hit from currency weakness and inflation at forty-year highs.“The United Kingdom will get orange-pilled very quickly given GBP volatility,” Gurbacs predicted.“Given that the UK is now outside of the EU bureaucratic apparatus, it will get another chance to become a Bitcoin hub. I think UK leaders will use this opportunity reasonably well.”The pound was down nearly 25% year-to-date at one point in USD terms. While Bitcoin beats it at 56%, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, the longer the time horizon, the more attractive a BTC hedge becomes.“Over the past four years the dollar has collapsed -67% gains USD,” Michael Saylor, former CEO of MicroStrategy, noted in his own assessment of fiat currency losses on Sept. 26.BTC/USD vs. GBP/USD chart. Source: TradingViewAccording to data from CoinShares head of research James Butterfill, trade volume for the GBP/BTC pair on major exchanges Bitstamp and Bitfinex, normally worth a combined $70 million per day, hit a giant $881 million on Sept. 26 — an increase of over 1,150%.Butterfill argued that this showed that “when a FIAT currency is threatened, investors start to favour Bitcoin.”Reacting, Saifedean Ammous, author of the popular book, “The Bitcoin Standard,” called the phenomenon “fascinating.”GBP/USD trade volume on Bitstamp, Bitfinex chart. Source: James Butterfill/ TwitterG20 is “starting to understand” the need for a BTC hedgeGurbacs, meanwhile, acknowledged that while he “might be too optimistic about the UK,” G20 countries could yet enact a major policy shift vis-a-vis BTC acceptance.Related: Bitcoin gains 5% to reclaim $20K, eyes first ‘green’ September since 2016“Like gold, Bitcoin could be a hedge against their own policies. Which is worth a small % allocation and support,” he continued. “Some are starting to understand this.”Beyond the pound, data shows that it is the major fiat currencies that are suffering more at the hands of a surging greenback than those of emerging markets (EMs).“The tables have turned,” Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, declared this week. “Emerging markets like Brazil and Mexico are year-to-date outperforming G10 currencies against the Dollar. This is a big pivot in global markets that’s unprecedented. EM monetary policy is these days more orthodox than in advanced economies. Well done EM…”An accompanying chart from Bloomberg showed the Brazilian real and Mexican peso gaining even on the dollar in 2022.The pound brought up the rear along with the yen, while the Russian ruble was notably absent, having hit its highest in USD since 2015.Fiat currency returns vs. U.S. dollar as of Sept. 26. Source: Robin Brooks/ TwitterThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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