Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) swiftly climbed above $20,000 after the Sept. 30 Wall Street open as end-of-month volatility began. BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin volatility back for monthly closeData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining 3% in a single hourly candle to hit local highs of $20,171 on Bitstamp.The move followed predictions from traders, who were looking for slightly higher levels to precede a fresh downside move.”Moving my stop to my entry now at 19.3k but letting it ride first to 21.7k where I think there’s some major resistance,” popular trader Pentoshi wrote in part of a fresh Twitter update about his trading plans.”Looks like strength to me,” trading account IncomeSharks continued.”Great way to finish the week off after seeing people switch back to being bearish every other day depending on the candle color.”Fellow trader Cheds called $20,000 a “pivot,” focusing attention on the psychologically significant level, having previously flagged declining U.S. dollar strength — a classic catalyst for risk asset performance. The downturn in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) continued on the day, approaching 112 points after meeting resistance during a rebound.U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewA further macro catalyst came in the form of United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data, which came in hotter than expected, increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve.In Europe, record Consumer Price Index (CPI) readings caused shock for some, highlights including The Netherlands’ 17.1% year-on-year increase.The fate of September’s candle hangs in the balanceWith hours to go until the September monthly candle close, meanwhile, eyes were firmly on whether bulls could stay the course.Related: Bitcoin profitability for long-term holders declines to 4-year low: DataWhether BTC/USD would finish the month up or down versus the start remained open to interpretation, as did the fate of monthly support. BTC/USD 1-month candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewAt press time, the pair was 0.35% higher than on Sep. 1 — still enough to post its first “green” September since 2016, data from Coinglass confirmed.Looking ahead, analyst William Clemente reiterated that statistically, Q4 was a solid period of returns for hodlers.”Historically Q4 has been Bitcoin’s best performance by far, with an average quarterly return of +103.9%,” he tweeted. “October and November have been its best performing individual months with avg returns of 24% and 58%. Does seasonality matter? Let’s see.”Coinglass data likewise showed that for Q3, BTC/USD was currently at 0.92%.BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: CoinglassThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) traders lay in wait for fresh volatility on Sept. 29 as BTC/USD cooled near $19,000.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewVolatility absent a day before the monthly closeData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView charted a calm overnight phase for the largest cryptocurrency, which hit intraday highs above $19,600 the day prior. Those 6% gains were a welcome relief after heavy losses earlier in the week, but it no clear direction, market participants were still uncertain over how Bitcoin would handle the September monthly close.“Can certainly build a case for local support holding in this range, at least until the monthly and quarterly close on Friday, unless, of course, we get the mother of all rug pulls,” on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators summarized.Material Indicators referenced order book data which suggested that $18,000 could provide range support in the event of fresh market weakness.More broadly, however, popular trading account Doctor Profit argued that rangebound behavior was still the trend on BTC/USD, this in place for multiple months.“Interesting, $BTC usually moves between 30-50 days in a sideway movement before a leg down. For the first time within two years, BTC decides to move more than 108 days in a sideway movement,” it wrote on the day:“This is how accumulation cycle looks like.”BTC price action annotated chart. Source: Doctor Profit/ TwitterDollar back on the up after brief retracementMacro triggers remained firmly on the radar in crypto circles the day after the Bank of England enacted a major policy shift, bringing back quantitative easing (QE) by buying long-term government bonds — a move to be worth $65 billion.Related: Bitcoin ‘great detox’ could trigger a BTC price drop to $12K: ResearchGrimly familiar to those who remember the birth of Bitcoin, the intervention was viewed by many as a point of no return in the current inflationary environment.For veteran investor Stanley Druckenmiller, while the time was not right to own risk-on assets such as crypto, the writing was on the wall.“I don’t own Bitcoin… I — it’s tough for me to own anything like that with central banks tightening,” he told CNBC host Joe Kernen in an interview on Sept. 28:“But yeah, I still think — if the Bank of England, what they did is followed by stuff like that by other central banks in the next two or three years, if things get really bad… I could see cryptocurrency having a big role in a Renaissance because people just aren’t going to trust the central banks.”His words caught the attention of Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of derivatives giant, BitMEX, who earlier this year predicted a “doom loop” taking hold of the world’s major fiat currencies.The euro, he claimed this month, had already commenced its doom loop.Elsewhere on the day, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) was recouping recent losses after hitting its latest two-decade highs.U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.