Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Global recession may last until near 2024 Bitcoin halving — Elon Musk

Global recession may last until near 2024 Bitcoin halving — Elon Musk

Uverejnil používateľ | okt 21, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) may spend the time until its next block subsidy halving battling recession, Elon Musk suggested.In a tweet on Oct. 21, the Tesla CEO revealed his belief that the world would only exit recession in Spring 2024.Musk: Recession will “probably” stay until Q2, 2024After the United States entered a technical recession with its Q3 GDP data, debate continues over how much worse the scenario could get.For Musk, while long predicting the U.S. economy would enter recession, the likelihood of a global downturn lingering is now real.Asked on Twitter how long he considered a recession to last, the world’s richest man was noncommittal, but erred on the side of years rather than months.“Just guessing, but probably until spring of ‘24,” he wrote, having also said that “it sure would be nice to have one year without a horrible global event.”Musk’s latest prognosis appeared particularly painful for crypto commentators.Still sensitive to macro market moves, BTC/USD dipped below $19,000 on the day, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed. Reactions to Musk digested the idea that it might take until Bitcoin’s next halving for price performance to see a significant trend change. The halving is currently scheduled to occur on May 1, 2024.“If true, half of CT will be in a mental asylum,” on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators commented.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewDaily chart faces make-or-break momentCloser to home, further research warned that “time is running out” to save the Bitcoin daily chart from a breakdown. Related: New Fidelity report flags ‘stark contrast’ between Bitcoin and fiat currenciesAccording to commentator Matthew Hyland, a daily close above $20,500 is now a necessary step.“Bitcoin has consistently made lower highs since June,” he summarized. “Needless to say, the pressure is now on to make a higher high above $20.5k after retesting the $18k region. Time is running out.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Matthew Hyland/ TwitterEarlier this week, Hyland flagged relative strength index (RSI) behavior potentially copying the latter stages of Bitcoin’s last halving cycle bear market in 2018. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin faces tough daily resistance as BTC price matches UK pound volatility

Bitcoin faces tough daily resistance as BTC price matches UK pound volatility

Uverejnil používateľ | okt 20, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) showed no signs of a breakout on Oct. 20 as tantalizing sideways action dragged on.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewAnalyst: Bitcoin range “congested and critical”Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD firmly rangebound at around $19,000 overnight, moving only around $400 up or down.United States equities opened with no significant volatility, this focused more on the United Kingdom, where the pound reacted to news that Liz Truss had resigned as Prime Minister.Chart data circulating on social media at the time of writing showed that GBP and BTC volatility had become practically identical, the latter already in its least volatile period since 2020.GBP vs. BTC volatility chart. Source: db/ TwitterWith macro triggers failing to have an impact, analysts flagged solid support and resistance levels keeping price action in check.“Bitcoin continues to trade in a congested and critical range,” Keith Alan, founder of analytics resource Material Indicators, summarized on the day.Alan highlighted two key moving averages (MAs) closing in on each other and acting as resistance boundaries to the trading range.“The 21-Day MA has confluence with resistance at the trend line from the ATH and the 50-Day MA has confluence with resistance at the 2017 Top,” he explained.BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) with 21, 50 MA. Source: TradingViewExchange data hints at strength of breakdownContinuing investigation of the current trading range, Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, had some lackluster news for bulls.Related: Capitulation or profit-taking? Bitcoin whale moves 32K BTC dormant since 2018Analysis of liquidation data on major exchange Bitfinex yielded a conclusion that an upside breakout from the range would “not have the momentum that a downside break would achieve.”The danger of a serious support loss thus remained a firm possibility based on trader activity.Alongside a chart of liquidations, Filbfilb summarized that “a break above the range will likely be less brutal than one to the down.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Filbfilb/ TwitterThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Capitulation or profit-taking? Bitcoin whale moves 32K BTC dormant since 2018

Capitulation or profit-taking? Bitcoin whale moves 32K BTC dormant since 2018

Uverejnil používateľ | okt 20, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) worth over $600 million moved for the first time since the last bear market on Oct. 18, analysis has revealed.In a Twitter thread, monitoring resource Whalemap flagged a transaction involving 32,000 BTC.Buyer could be “willing to acquire” 32,000 BTC at $19,000In the latest sign that current spot price is affecting the behavior of even longer-term holders, a whale entity who purchased BTC near the pit of the last bear market appears to have sold.According to Whalemap, 32,000 coins left their wallet for the first time since December 2018 this week.“32,000 Bitcoins belonging to a whale wallet moved yesterday. They were dormant since Dec 2018,” the Whalemap team wrote in accompanying commentary. While it is unknown exactly what was behind the decision, Whalemap was quick to argue an alternative perspective to the classic bear market narrative — major investors capitulating at the lows. The team added:“Transactions like this usually signify OTC trades, meaning someone is willing to acquire those 32k bitcoins right now.” Despite BTC/USD being down over 70% from all-time highs, the 32,000 BTC stash would have made a significant profit, having been purchased at $3,900.Four years later, they are worth $612 million versus the roughly $124 million paid.Bitcoin whale outflows annotated chart. Source: Whalemap/ TwitterContinuing, Whalemap noted that due to the popularity of the 2018 lows as a buy-in point, that price zone represents a significant area of support.“Not many people know about this but a lot of Bitcoin was accumulated by whales exactly in the region that the above transaction is coming from,” it wrote. “Even right now, 337k of accumulated BTC is still being HODLed in those wallets. A super important area in BTC land to keep ur [eye] on.”Bitcoin wall inflows annotated chart. Source: Whalemap/ TwitterExchange balances accelerate fallSigns that even $19,000 is becoming popular as a BTC trading or investment play are coming from exchanges this month. Related: Here’s what could spark a ‘huge BTC rally’ as Bitcoin clings to $19KData from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that over the past few days, major exchanges have seen their BTC balances decreasing more per day relative to the previous month than at any time since mid-July.The 19 trading platforms tracked by Glassnode were down roughly 100,000 BTC in the past 30 days on both Oct. 18 and Oct. 19.The last date that exchanges ended the day with more BTC than they started with versus a month prior was Oct. 8.Bitcoin exchange 30-day net position change chart. Source: GlassnodeExchanges’ total balance was just over 2.34 million BTC as of Oct. 19, down from 2.46 million at the end of September.Bitcoin exchange balance chart. Source: GlassnodeThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Here's what could spark a 'huge BTC rally' as Bitcoin clings to $19K

Here's what could spark a 'huge BTC rally' as Bitcoin clings to $19K

Uverejnil používateľ | okt 19, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) sagged with United States equities at the Oct. 19 Wall Street open as markets awaited tech earnings.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewEurozone sees fresh all-time high inflationData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling $19,000 after falling steadily overnight.Still trapped in a tight range, the pair offered few cues to traders seeking advantageous short-term plays, while some sources argued that overall, current levels represented solid buy levels.“With little calendar events till the next FOMC in early November, crypto continuing to lag behind equities, and skews near flat, protective downside structures are the cheapest levels they have been since June,” trading firm QCP Capital concluded to Telegram channel subscribers on the day.QCP Capital was referring to the upcoming meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, at which a decision on interest rate hikes would be made.Those numbers would be apt to spark risk asset volatility, with the U.S. more influential in crypto markets than other nations when it comes to inflation.The United Kingdom reported a new forty-year high in year-on-year inflation on the day, this reaching 10.1% as food prices took their toll. The eurozone told a similar story, with annual inflation hitting 10.9% in September — the highest ever recorded.”The euro area annual inflation rate was 9.9% in September 2022, up from 9.1% in August. A year earlier, the rate was 3.4%,” a statement from Eurostat confirmed. “European Union annual inflation was 10.9% in September 2022, up from 10.1% in August. A year earlier, the rate was 3.6%. These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.”Eurozone annual inflation rates chart (screenshot). Source: EurostatAnalyst eyes dollar parabola breakElsewhere, the Japanese yen was on track to hit the psychologically significant 150 per dollar level. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) climbed on the day, seeking to crack 113 within an overall consolidation structure.Related: Bitcoin mirrors 2020 pre-breakout, but analysts at odds whether this time is differentU.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewThe day prior, market analyst Kevin Svenson had made a bold prediction for the dollar, arguing that Bitcoin would see explosive growth should the DXY 2022 “parabola” break down definitively.“The $DXY is about to break below the parabola folks,” he summarized. “If it does a huge BTC rally is likely to occur.”U.S. dollar index (DXY) chart with parabola lines shown. Source: Kevin Svenson/ TwitterThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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New Fidelity report flags ‘stark contrast’ between Bitcoin and fiat currencies

New Fidelity report flags ‘stark contrast’ between Bitcoin and fiat currencies

Uverejnil používateľ | okt 19, 2022 |

Bitcoin’s (BTC) future may “stand in stark contrast to the rest of the world,” asset manager Fidelity Investments predicts.In a recent research piece, “The Rising Dollar and Bitcoin,” released Oct. 10, Fidelity Digital Assets, the firm’s crypto subsidiary, drew a line between Bitcoin and other currencies.Bitcoin “does not correspond to another person’s liability:” ReportWhile hardly a stranger to bullish takes on Bitcoin, Fidelity continues to publicly reiterate its faith in the largest cryptocurrency despite the near year-long bear market.In the report, analysts stated just how far Bitcoin as an asset has diverged from what is currently considered the norm. In the new high-inflation environment, Bitcoin’s fixed issuance and supply are of particular importance.“Therefore, bitcoin may soon stand in stark contrast to the path that the rest of the world and fiat currencies may take – namely the path of increased supply, additional currency creation, and central bank balance sheet expansion,” they explained.Related: Bitcoin price ‘easily’ due to hit $2M in six years — Larry LepardWhile the report’s title places influence on the strength of the United States dollar relative to other world currencies, it was the crisis in the British pound that Fidelity highlighted as the kind of event impossible on a Bitcoin standard.Summing up, the firm forecast that “more monetary debasement may be needed to alleviate the high debt load among developed economies, while recent events in the United Kingdom have shown counterparty and liability risks in the system, making monetary intervention and doses of liquidity features that are not likely to go away any time soon.” “Comparatively, bitcoin remains one of the few assets that does not correspond to another person’s liability, has no counterparty risk, and has a supply schedule that cannot be changed,” it concluded:“Whether those properties begin to look more attractive is ultimately up to investors and the market to decide.”Bitcoin monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: CoinglassVolatility remains crypto-sector base caseElsewhere, Fidelity’s optimistic take on the current state of the Bitcoin network itself diverges from the nervousness of its crypto-sector peers.The firm’s round-up of research for the month of October pointed to the BTC illiquid supply hitting a ten-year record, as well as surging network fundamentals.As Cointelegraph reported, meanwhile, in its latest weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” on-chain analytics firm Glassnode concluded that volatility would be likely what characterized Bitcoin going forward.“The Bitcoin market is primed for volatility, with both realized and options implied volatility falling to historical lows. On-chain spending behavior is compressing into a decision point, where spot prices intersect with the Short-Term Holder cost basis,” it concluded, summarizing the data points covered.More widely, traders are preparing for a violent exit of Bitcoin’s narrow trading range within weeks.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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