Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin sets new 7-week high as BTC price jumps past $21K on US jobs

Bitcoin (BTC) passed $21,000 at the Nov. 4 Wall Street open as bulls tackled a formidable sell wall.BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewSellers move aside for new multi-week highsData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView breaking through resistance to hit local highs of $21,262 on Bitstamp.The pair had struggled to return to higher levels during the week, but the latest order book data from Binance showed asks now shifting up to north of $21,500.BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ TwitterThe day’s high marked Bitcoin’s best performance since Sep. 13, beating previous local peaks.Material Indicators, which provided the order book charts, noted that above-expected United States unemployment figures may be aiding risk assets by increasing the chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate pivot.“Unemployment came in at 3.7% which is 0.2% higher than forecasted and BTC whales see it as a sign that FED rate hikes may be working,” it summarized. “Note, that one month’s report doesn’t make a trend, but right or wrong, this market reacts to every data point.”Zooming out, popular Twitter account Bitcoin Bull reiterated a characteristically positive take on BTC price action, arguing that cycle lows were near.”This was just a pullback from a bigger bullish extension. The major peak is not in yet, but the bottom zone is here,” a tweet read. “The cycle continues.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Bitcoin Bull/ Twitter$30,000 on the cards for NovemberMacro markets performed similarly strongly on the day.Related: Analyst puts Bitcoin price at $30K next month with breakout dueAn hour after the open, the S&P 500 was up nearly 2% and the Nasdaq Composite Index up 1.75%.The U.S. dollar meanwhile lost ground, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) dropping to 111 support from 113 in a single day.”$DXY is tanking. Yields are ready to drop. Bitcoin at $21K,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, reacted. “It’s time for the run towards $30k in coming weeks.”U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin bulls face $21K sellers as BTC price wipes out Fed FOMC losses

Bitcoin (BTC) headed toward $21,000 on Nov. 4 as bulls attempted to reclaim lost ground.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it rose overnight to put in new daily highs of $20,683 on Bitstamp.$21,000 sell wall proves uglyWhile so far a lower high on hourly timeframes compared to the Nov. 1 and 2 spikes, the move served to make up for losses, which came on the back of the Federal Reserve interest rate hike decision.Potential for a push beyond $21,000 was limited, however, thanks to exchange sellers stacking asks at that level.“If you want to sell, place your orders slightly lower than $21k,” Onchain Edge, a contributor at analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in part of a tweet alongside data from the Binance order book.BTC/USD order book chart (Binance). Source: Onchain Edge/ TwitterMaterial Indicators, which provides the order book data, additionally noted that buy-side orders had been fickle friends in terms of support, coming and going on the order book.“THIS is why I don’t trust new, heavily weighted, Bitcoin buy walls,” it commented.BTC/USD order book chart (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ TwitterFellow CryptoQuant contributor Maartunn meanwhile added that market sell-orders were “still dominant” in the current setup.“Nothing has really changed, other than a lower Bitcoin price,” part of Twitter commentary stated on the day.Bitcoin net take buy/sell volume chart. Source: Maartunn/ TwitterAnalyst on stocks: “Big guys loading up”Beyond crypto, one analytics source noted a potential silver lining for risk assets more broadly in the current climate.Related: Bitcoin seller exhaustion hits 4-year low in ‘typical’ bear market moveThe Smart Money Confidence (SMC) sentiment indicator, traditionally used for stocks, is now at “historical highs,” Game of Trades noted.High SMC scores coincide with outperformance of the S&P 500, and given Bitcoin’s correlation to traditional markets, there could be cause for optimism on the back of its current reading of 0.61. SMC hit highs of 0.78 in late September, with a bounce thus required in future.”The big guys are loading up. Smart money confidence is at historically high levels,” an optimistic Game of Trades nonetheless summarized.Smart money confidence annotated chart. Source: Games of Trades/ TwitterThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin holds $20K post-Fed as rising dollar sparks BTC price warning

Bitcoin (BTC) lingered lower on Nov. 3 as the aftermath of the Federal Reserve interest rate hike subsided.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewTrading range forms with $20,000 at centerData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hovering just above $20,000 on the day.The pair had seen flash volatility as the Fed hiked 0.75%, fakeout moves up and down triggering liquidations both long and short.Cross-crypto liquidations for the 24 hours to the time of writing totaled $165 million, data from Coinglass confirmed.Bitcoin ultimately finished slightly lower than its pre-Fed level, an area which continued to hold on the day as analysts awaited fresh cues.For popular Twitter trader Crypto Tony, there was little need to adjust an existing forecast involving downside resuming short term.“My main bias has not changed as i expect more consolidation and one more drop to produce a spring like motion to kick start the bull run,” he told followers on the day.Data from monitoring resource Material Indicators highlighted potential support and resistance zones using trades from the Binance order book.$19,000 and $21,000 were in focus for analyst Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.”Two order clusters are added at $19000 & $21000. These are placed around the FOMC,” he noted. “Will this be the new trading range?”BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ TwitterDXY hints at bad news for risk assetsFellow trader John Wick meanwhile voiced caution over increasing U.S. dollar strength following the rate hike.Related: Bitcoin seller exhaustion hits 4-year low in ‘typical’ bear market moveU.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewUploading charts of the U.S. dollar index (DXY), he warned that the impact of USD gaining ground would be felt across risk assets.“First chart is the wrecking ball weaponized Dollar. Bouncing off recent lows, targeting the top of the uptrend channel, just as I said it would after we see another hike,” he wrote. “This will pressure all asset prices including BTC. Notice how RSI staying bullish above midline.”U.S. dollar index (DXY) annotated chart. Source: John Wick/ TwitterThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin seller exhaustion hits 4-year low in 'typical' bear market move

Bitcoin (BTC) sellers may not have capitulated enough, but current trends are “typical” of the end of bear markets.According to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, seller behavior suggests that a macro price bottom is forming.Analyst: Seller exhaustion “near” bear market lowsIn the latest hint that Bitcoin’s latest bear market is nearing its end, Glassnode has revealed that the network is currently weathering a “perfect storm” of low volatility and high on-chain losses.The Seller Exhaustion Constant, calculated from one-month rolling volatility and on-chain transaction profitability, is thus at long-term lows of its own.As a Twitter post explains, such lows are rare, having only appeared seven times before. Six of those times, upside volatility resulted, implying that Bitcoin could soon put an end to its bearish trend.“The Bitcoin seller exhaustion constant has recorded the lowest value since November 2018,” Glassnode commented.In a subsequent discussion, lead on-chain analyst Checkmate described the data as “typical” of bear markets, adding that such levels occur “near the lows.”The Seller Exhaustion Constant was originally created by ARK Invest and David Puell, responsible for the popular Puell Multiple indicator.“The seller exhaustion constant shown below is the percentage of bitcoin total circulating supply in profit multiplied by its volatility over the last 30 days,” ARK analyst Yassine Elmandjra explained in an article last year. “This metric measures whether the two factors align. Specifically, the combination of low volatility and high losses is associated with capitulation, complacency, and a bottoming out of the bitcoin price.”Bitcoin Seller Exhaustion Constant annotated chart. Source: Glassnode/ TwitterNot quite there yetAdditional data on unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) nonetheless shows that current levels of BTC moved on-chain at a loss do not match historical bear market bottoms.Related: New Bitcoin Yardstick metric says $20K BTC now ‘extraordinarily cheap’Bitcoin % UTXOs in profit/ loss chart. Source: GlassnodeAs of Oct. 29, the latest date for which statistics are available, 75% of UTXOs were in profit — a stark contrast to late 2018, when the tally dipped well below 50%.Bitcoin % UTXOs in profit chart. Source: GlassnodeThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price hits $20.8K as volatility ensues over Fed 75-point rate hike

Bitcoin (BTC) saw instant volatility on Nov. 2 as the United States Federal Reserve enacted a fourth consecutive 0.75% interest rate hike.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewFed hints more hikes to comData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD initially dropping to $20,200 before momentarily rebounding to $20,800.The Fed confirmed the 0.75% hike, which marks its most intensive hiking schedule in forty years, in a statement.“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-3/4 to 4 percent,” it stated. “The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.”Analysts had long predicted increased volatility around the rate decision. At the time of writing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was still to deliver comments on the move, something markets would be keenly eyeing for trajectory cues.“Beware, volatility will remain high during this event, fake-outs happen before the real move takes place!” Michaël van de Poppe, founder of trading firm Eight, told Twitter followers.The Fed’s decision had been nonetheless widely expected, as per CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, with Cointelegraph reporting on a theory that sticking to the script would still offer crypto a shot at further upside.Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME GroupHow long can the hikes go on?Should Powell hint at possible slower increases or a pivot in policy, the situation could however turn dramatically.Related: New Bitcoin Yardstick metric says $20K BTC now ‘extraordinarily cheap’“The market rallying ~13% off the lows was this expected 75 bps. It’s all about the presser now,” popular account CryptoISO summarized. “We knew the fed had telegraphed an eventual slowdown/pause Not a pivot but more of a reassessment as data comes out to see how it is flowing through. 75 bps each time wont work.”Federal funds rate chart. Source: St. Louis FedThe statement confirmed that Fed officials had voted unanimously for 0.75%. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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