Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) price gains do not yet reflect enough new capital entering the market, analysis warns.Key points:Rolling 30-day cumulative inflows of “new money” to Bitcoin reached $4.9 billion on Oct. 5, per Glassnode data.Existing investors still accounted for three-fifths of the $12.8 billion growth in realized cap in that period.Short-term holders accounted for more than 80% of profit-taking above $85,000.Bitcoin capital inflows not responsible for realized cap growthIn the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain, crypto research platform Glassnode revealed that existing holders were behind much of Bitcoin’s recent upside.“New money” inflows into Bitcoin — purchases by corporate treasuries, “stablecoin growth” and inflows to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) — totaled around $4.9 billion in the 30 days to Oct. 5.Bitcoin’s realized cap, which values each coin at the price it last moved onchain, grew by $12.8 billion, more than twice as much over the same period.“New money therefore covers less than two fifths of that rise. The rest is coins changing hands at higher prices among money already in the market,” Glassnode commented.Bitcoin new money inflows vs. realized cap (screenshot). Source: GlassnodeAccompanying data shows that recent rallies in BTC/USD have showed the same divergence since the ETFs launched in January 2024. Currently, however, conditions are different, with inflows still modest compared to short-term realized-cap gains. “The rallies of 2024 and 2025 showed a similar mix, but on far larger inflows,” Glassnode added. “Until those inflows pick up, the move depends on existing holders paying more.”Newer investor profit-taking surged at $85,000Since Sept. 21, Bitcoin has attempted to rise beyond $87,000 four times. Each of these attempts failed as buyers faced thickening overhead ask liquidity on exchange order books. BTC/USD circled $83,000 at the time of writing on Thursday, down 1% month-to-date.Related: Bitcoin price drops to $82.7K October low as bond sell-off resumes on Iran nervesContinuing, Glassnode flagged increased profit-taking among recent buyers over the weekend, when Bitcoin saw its first weekly close above $85,000 since January.“Of all the coins sent to exchanges that day, about 86% came from short-term holders, those holding for less than 155 days, moving coins at a profit. That is the highest share of any day in the past year; on a typical day it is under two fifths,” it continued.Bitcoin STH profit-taking data (screenshot). Source: GlassnodeShort-term holders are traditionally considered to be more sensitive to price volatility. The cohort remains in net profit, with its aggregate cost basis, also known as realized price, still at around $78,250 as of Oct. 7, per data from CryptoQuant.Bitcoin STH realized price by transaction age. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin (BTC) fell further at Wednesday’s Wall Street open as oil prices gained on US-Iran war headlines and stocks came off all-time highs.Key points:Bitcoin fell to $82,734 on Bitstamp, marking its lowest levels so far traded in October.US bond yields spiked to new 24-year highs and Brent crude oil prices rose to $102 per barrel after Iranian comments on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.BTC price analysis warns of lackluster demand on both spot and derivatives markets.Bond yields set new 24-year high on Iran oil clampdownData from TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping below $83,000, setting new month-to-date lows.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewMixed signals over oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude oil to $102 per barrel on the day, while WTI crude reached $91.An adviser to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ Commander quoted by Reuters on the day warned of a clampdown on traffic that it had “deemed illegal.”“The Strait of Hormuz is ​closed, and the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran ​have full control over it. This situation will continue until Iran’s legitimate demands are met,” he said.CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewUS bond yields, highly sensitive to concerns about inflation and government debt loads worldwide, reacted with new 24-year highs. The 10-year and 30-year yields reached 5.36% and 5.73%, respectively. US 10-year bond yield one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAt the same time, US stock markets headed lower after hitting fresh all-time highs on Tuesday. The S&P 500 traded down 0.6% on the day to 7,773 points.S&P 500 one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewMuhammad Qubbaj, co-head of North America interest rate product sales and trading at Goldman Sachs FICC and Equities, predicted that yields would “likely be under ongoing pressure amid elevated energy prices and subdued demand from institutional investors,” as reported on Tuesday.He forecast in a webinar that rising oil prices would “likely be the key factor in longer-term interest rates.”Bitcoin demand lacking as upside momentum fadesWith Bitcoin still unable to break through overhead ask liquidity around $87,000, analysis warned of waning demand on both spot and derivatives markets.Related: Binance BTC outflows hit highest since mid-2023 as whales deposit stablecoins“Since September 22, Bitcoin has remained at a similar price level, while Bitcoin Open Interest has declined by nearly 10%, from approximately $28.8B to $26.0B,” onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reported on Wednesday. “This suggests that, amid subdued spot demand, futures traders have also shown limited willingness to take on additional risk.”Bitcoin open interest data. Source: CryptoQuantThe move to $83,000 invalidated support previously provided by Bitcoin’s 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $83,850. CryptoQuant added that on higher time frames, $69,500 is worth monitoring as the average cost basis for Bitcoin short-term holders — entities holding a given allocation without selling for up to six months.

Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $84,000 on Wednesday as flash downside liquidated over $500 million in crypto long positions.Key points:Bitcoin briefly dropped to $83,560 but held support at its 21-day moving average, which currently stands at $83,850.Analysis flagged 40x-leveraged BTC shorts on Hyperliquid appearing immediately before the downside ensued. Analysis by Rekt Capital viewed a daily or three-day close above $86,700 as necessary to confirm upside continuation.Hyperliquid shorts in focus after BTC price dropData from TradingView showed BTC/USD falling up to 2.3% over two hourly candles before returning to circle $84,000 at the time of writing.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe move came after overhead ask liquidity thickened on exchange order books, keeping spot price from rising past $86,500 on Tuesday. Cumulative 24-hour crypto long liquidations hit $550 million, per data from CoinGlass.BTC/USD vs. crypto liquidations (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassJust before the overnight drop, four wallets used stablecoin USD Coin (USDC) to open shorts on 148.49 BTC with 40x leverage on Hyperliquid, onchain data from Lookonchain and others reveals. After the long position flush, open interest (OI) immediately began to rebound across the 21 exchanges tracked by CoinGlass — potentially a sign that traders were comfortable with increasing BTC exposure at the local lows. OI increased from around $54.2 billion to $55.3 billion over six hours between 4 a.m. and 10 a.m. UTC. BTC exchange OI data (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassBitcoin preserves nearby support levelsDespite trading 1.8% lower on the day, Bitcoin preserved nearby support in the form of its 21-day simple moving average (SMA) near $83,850. Previously, Cointelegraph reported that this level forms a line in the sand for bulls on low time frames.Related: Binance BTC outflows hit highest since mid-2023 as whales deposit stablecoinsBelow this trend line, $82,500 remains as a decisive area for Bitcoin’s broader uptrend. It forms a key level as part of an inverse head-and-shoulders reversal pattern, which is still playing out on the weekly chart. Price last visited the level on Sept. 28.In his latest market commentary, trader and analyst Rekt Capital explained that a daily candle close above $86,700 would be required to maintain a bullish setup.“At the moment, Bitcoin is lacking that lower timeframe confirmation relative to this key level for continuation,” he told X followers on Tuesday.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

Bitcoin (BTC) continued to circle $86,000 on Tuesday as US stock markets hit fresh all-time highs.Key points:Bitcoin attempted to move toward $87,000 but faces ongoing friction from ask liquidity clustered around this key level.US stock markets returned to all-time highs, with the S&P 500 Index adding 0.8% to reach 7,835 points.BTC price analysis saw the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $83,500 as nearby key support.Bitcoin rangebound as S&P 500, Nasdaq see new highsData from TradingView showed BTC/USD attempting to return to $87,000 after another failed attempt to break higher on Monday.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewStocks were in focus after the Wall Street open as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index hit new record highs of 7,835, 31,312 and 27,683 points, respectively.S&P 500 one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCommenting on the move, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that the S&P 500 had added 24%, or $71.3 trillion, in value since March 30.In new analysis looking at the outlook for stocks, Mosaic Asset Company suggested that cooling expectations of interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in Q4 2026 could propel markets higher.“Shifting views around the Fed and a slower pace of rate hikes could become the catalyst for a durable rally,” it summarized on Tuesday.Mosaic reiterated that stock-market breadth remained near its lowest levels in six months, with just 25% of stocks trading above their 50-day simple moving average (SMA) last week. Tech companies supplied the lion’s share of the latest upside.“Breadth has been this oversold just one other time this year, which was back in late March as the S&P 500 fell near correction territory. Oversold conditions helped spark a reversal back then, and could do so again,” it commented.S&P 500 stocks trading above 50-day SMA. Source: Mosaic Asset CompanyData from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows a modest positive correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500. It currently sits at 0.51 as of Oct. 2, its highest since early June.BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 correlation. Source: CryptoQuant.BTC price support hinges on 21-day trend lineBTC price action continued to face overhead resistance near range highs thanks to ask liquidity on exchange order books. Related: Binance BTC outflows hit highest since mid-2023 as whales deposit stablecoinsData from CoinGlass showed the largest concentration of liquidity around $87,000 on Tuesday. A “ladder” of asks extended down to $86,500, likely contributing to capped price upside.BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlassIn his latest market overview on X, Keith Alan, cofounder of crypto trading suite Material Indicators, identified support at $83,500, Bitcoin’s current 21-day SMA. This level was last traded on Sept. 18.“I’m watching price around $83,555, the structure of any $82,500 support test, and whether buyers can clear the Monthly signal’s $87,375 invalidation threshold,” Alan wrote in analysis on Oct. 1.“Beyond that, a reclaim and successful retest of the Yearly Open at $87,496 would strengthen my case for a durable move above $91,540 which would act as another validation of a confirmed bull market.”BTC/USD one-day chart with 21 SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) outflows from largest crypto exchange Binance set multiyear records in late September, new analysis reveals.Key points:Binance net Bitcoin outflows passed 23,000 BTC in the fourth week of September, their highest in over three years.CryptoQuant analysis saw better odds of BTC/USD breaking out of its current range as a result.Whales increased stablecoin inflows to Binance by 40% since mid-August.Binance Bitcoin reserves fall by nearly 40,000 BTC since Sept. 20Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that in the seven days through Sept. 27, Binance’s net outflow reached 23,137 BTC.On a weekly basis, the total marked Binance’s largest outflow since June 2023, when its BTC balance dropped by 44,942 in a single week. While last month saw merely half this amount, CryptoQuant sees similar conditions sparking both withdrawal runs.“The more BTC leaves a widely accessible platform like Binance, the stronger the signal that accumulation is taking place. Withdrawing BTC from an exchange is a longer-term investment behavior, and therefore a positive signal,” it wrote in a blog post.Binance BTC daily, weekly netflows data. Source: CryptoQuantIn June 2023, BTC/USD went from $26,300 to $30,500 in the weekly candle that followed the Binance outflows, seeing new 12-month highs as part of its recovery from the 2022 bear market.A similar accumulation pattern, CryptoQuant continued, is also reflected in Binance’s reserves dropping by nearly 40,000 BTC since Sept. 20.“Combined with fading sellers, this accumulation could be enough to push Bitcoin out of this consolidation phase fairly quickly,” it added.BTC/USD has traded in a range between $82,500 and $87,400 since Sept. 21. As Cointelegraph reported, walls of liquidity on exchanges have dictated low-timeframe price moves during that time, with the 2026 yearly open at $87,570 still overhead as resistance. Binance whales line up stablecoin capitalSeparate data shows that large-volume whale entities have increased the supply of stablecoins to Binance over the past six weeks. Related: Bitcoin price fails to break higher after best weekly close in eight monthsStablecoin supply on exchanges is considered “dry powder” waiting for deployment into cryptoassets, and increasing balances suggest mounting interest in increasing capital exposure.CryptoQuant reports that between Aug. 15 and the end of September, whale entities increased their rolling 30-day stablecoin inflows to Binance by 40% — from $21.7 billion to $30.5 billion.“This change in behavior comes after a long lull, during which their inflows receded from the October peak, when they exceeded $61B,” it commented, referring to crypto markets’ current all-time highs from October 2025.Bitcoin whale stablecoin inflows to Binance (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant