Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) saw month-to-date lows at Tuesday’s Wall Street open as global bond yields spiked and crypto markets awaited a key US Senate vote on the CLARITY Act.Key points:Bitcoin dropped to $75,560, its lowest level so far in September ahead of the US Senate’s procedural vote on the CLARITY Act.Global bond yields in major economies set new macro highs as $100 oil prices remained a point of contention.Analysis expects that central banks around the world will raise interest rates going forward, traditionally a headwind for crypto markets.CLARITY Act vote keeps crypto markets nervousData from TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping under $76,000, erasing a trip to $79,600 from the day prior.BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCrypto traders remained on edge ahead of the procedural vote on the CLARITY Act, due at 2:15pm Eastern time. The legislation will go forward to a Senate-floor debate should it gain the necessary 60 votes. As Cointelegraph reported earlier, consensus sees barely any chance of success, despite optimism from some sources, with Polymarket users giving CLARITY mere 14% odds of becoming law in 2026 as of Tuesday.Implied odds for CLARITY act passing in 2026. Source: PolymarketCommenting, trading company QCP Capital stressed that the act passing Tuesday’s procedural vote would have limited impact and form just one of several hurdles for proponents..“The bill’s passage would clarify the respective regulatory roles of the SEC and CFTC, potentially strengthening the medium-term case for institutional adoption by reducing regulatory uncertainty,” it wrote in analysis on Monday.“However, procedural progress does not guarantee final passage, and the timing of remaining legislative steps will determine the immediate market impact of any vote this week.”Bond yields surge worldwide on oil-fueled inflation riskUS stocks, meanwhile, turned red on the day as bond yields around the world returned to their highest levels in decades. The US 10-year yield passed 5% for the first time since November 2023, going on to reach 5.041%, a level not seen since June 2007.Related: Bitcoin short-term holders hit 30-day profit streak as bull-market odds improve: CryptoQuantUS 10-year bond yield one-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewReuters further reported that the average 10-year yield for the world’s seven largest economies had reached 4.285%, its highest since mid-2008 around the height of the Global Financial Crisis.UK and Japanese bonds also made headlines, as the UK 30-year yield reached 5.95% for the first time since March 1998, and the Japanese 10-year hit 3.04% — the highest in 30 years.UK 30-year bond yield one-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewResponding, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter predicted that central banks would tighten policy as a result and enact interest-rate hikes. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike its benchmark rate by 0.25% on Wednesday, while the Bank of Japan is expected to do the same at its Friday meeting.“It’s clear what’s coming next. Monetary policy is shifting, rate hikes are returning, and the next battle against inflation has started. Just as we saw Treasury intervention in the US, the UK will likely soon intervene. Yields are simply unsustainable at current levels,” Kobeissi wrote in a post on X. Bond yields continued to rise due to the threat of a fresh global inflation wave on the back of high oil prices, with several key transit routes at risk from a widening Middle East conflict. WTI crude oil neared $105 per barrel on Tuesday, headed for its highest levels since early May.CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) speculators have held onto profits for nearly a month in what new analysis sees as a key sign of market strength.Key points:Bitcoin short-term holders were in partial profit for the past month, marking the longest consecutive in-profit stint of 2026.STH profitability — a historical hallmark of bullish BTC price reversals — currently stands at $168.2 billion in profit versus $102.6 billion in loss.The broader Bitcoin investor base has stayed in net profit since Aug. 19.Short-term holders boost optimism over BTC price comebackData from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that a subset of Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) cohort has been in profit since Aug. 16.STH investors are wallets holding an unspent transaction output (UTXO) for less than six months. They correspond to newer buyers who are more sensitive to short-term price moves and volatility, adding or reducing exposure more readily than seasoned Bitcoin holders.Since Aug. 16, the STH investor base has been split in terms of profits on their existing exposure. STH coins held in profit total $168.2 billion as of Tuesday, while $102.6 billion are held below acquisition price.Bitcoin STH holdings in profit and loss. Source: CryptoQuantTo CryptoQuant, however, the ratio is less important than the fact that STHs have held onto at least some profit for 30 consecutive days.“This is the first time STH have sat in profit territory for a sustained stretch since the market top. The last time was in January, but that episode didn’t last more than a week. In May, losses held by STH remained dominant,” it wrote in an accompanying blog post.The phenomenon of lengthening uninterrupted periods of STH profitability is one that has characterized Bitcoin market recoveries throughout BTC price cycles. It was also observed at the end of Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market. CryptoQuant thus sees it as a prerequisite for the return of a long-term BTC price uptrend this cycle.“The bear market trend only truly reverses once profits settle in for good STH and then push them to hold their positions and ride the upside,” it added.Bitcoin STH holdings in profit and loss through year-end 2023. Source: CryptoQuantNewer investor cost bases cluster above $70,000The data echoes a similar stint of aggregate profitability currently being witnessed across the Bitcoin investor base as BTC/USD retains the majority of its 25% August upside.Related: CLARITY Act vote meets Fed rate hike: Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekAs Cointelegraph reported, the spent output profit ratio (SOPR), which tracks net profits or losses across all investors, passed its breakeven level of 1 on Aug. 19 and has narrowly held above it since. Last week, onchain analytics suite Checkonchain argued that STH profitability in particular was “starting to look more like those early bull-market recoveries.” STH profitability is currently being driven by entities holding between one and three months, CryptoQuant data shows, with that cohort having a cost basis (also known as realized price) at $63,372. The cost basis of the more mature end of the STH base — wallets holding for between three and six months — now sits at $73,190.Bitcoin realized price by wallet age. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to $79,000 after Monday’s Wall Street open as markets dissected mixed signals over the US-Iran war.Key points:Bitcoin rises above $79,000 as oil prices fall after US President Donald Trump suggests the Iran war could be nearing an end.Markets raise the odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike to more than 90%.Bitcoin tests its 50-week exponential moving average after closing below the key trend line on Sunday.Bitcoin gains as Trump references end to Iran warData from TradingView showed BTC/USD erasing its weekend losses and gaining around 3% on the day.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCrypto saw fresh upside as US President Donald Trump boosted prospects of a peace deal with Iran. “The failing Nation of Iran wants to make a deal, quickly and badly. I will determine whether or not the U.S.A. will choose to engage – The concept of which we are open to,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social.US equities initially gained at Monday’s Wall Street open but subsequently turned red amid ongoing uncertainty over the fate of key oil-transit routes in the Middle East. The S&P 500 was down 0.3% at the time of writing.In addition to the Strait of Hormuz, both Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and the Bab El-Mandeb Strait were under threat as the conflict expanded beyond Iran.US WTI crude oil remained above $100 per barrel at the time of writing, while Brent crude traded at $105 per barrel.CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewTrump later doubled down on his prediction of lower oil prices while also alluding to an end to the Iran conflict, causing oil prices to dip.“With the temporary exception of Oil, prices are coming down sharply, and Oil will drop like a rock as soon as the Military Conflict with Iran is over, and that will not be long,” a separate Truth Social post read.The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of a hike at 92.7%, up from 59.4% a week ago. Fed target rate probability comparison for Sept. 16 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupCommenting on the developments, trading company QCP Capital predicted that continued high oil prices would directly impact US financial policy. The Federal Reserve will announce its latest decision on interest-rate changes on Wednesday, with markets predicting a 25-basis-point hike to 3.75-4%.“A prolonged disruption would increase the risk of higher energy costs feeding into transport and logistics pricing, potentially lifting inflation expectations and constraining the Fed’s ability to pause tightening even as growth slows,” QCP wrote on Monday, adding:“This dynamic creates policy tension: continued energy prices could keep the Fed restrictive, while economic data weakness from higher energy costs could argue for patience.”Focus shifts to Fed wording around interest-rate moveDiscussing the implications of the week’s Fed decision for BTC price action, QCP argued that risk assets had already priced in a 0.25% hike, with less volatility expected as a result.Related: CLARITY Act vote meets Fed rate hike: Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekAn overall muted response to last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, it argued, means that Fed officials’ language now mattered more than the decision itself.“This containment reflects a shift in focus: the binary question of whether the Fed will hike has been answered; the critical issue for positioning is now how policymakers frame the move and what it signals about the path ahead,” it wrote.BTC/USD returned above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,430 on Monday after initially closing the weekly candle below it. As Cointelegraph reported, the 50-week EMA represents a key support target for Bitcoin bulls to reclaim as part of a bull-market comeback.BTC/USD one-week chart with 50 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) is starting the third week of September below key weekly support levels as traders eye volatility cues.The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday amid stubborn inflation and a mounting oil-price squeeze.The Senate will vote on whether to advance the crypto CLARITY Act on Tuesday — a key moment for market sentiment.Bitcoin finished last week below its 50-week moving average near $77,400, although a bullish RSI divergence continues to play out.Fed’s Warsh seen hiking rates despite Trump pressureThe Federal Reserve takes the spotlight for risk-asset traders this week as Wednesday’s decision on interest rates dictates the mood.On the back of high inflation and cautious words from chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed is widely expected to hike benchmark rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4% despite several dissenting officials in favor of holding them at current levels. The setup echoes that of the Fed’s July rate decision, when Warsh held rates while several voices argued for a hike.  Now, Warsh faces pressure from US president Donald Trump not only to avoid a hike but to enact rate cuts.The latest data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool puts the odds of rates staying at their current levels at just 13.3% at the time of writing. A week ago, the implied probability of a rate pause was above 40%, but it pulled back in the face of recent inflation data and oil-price gains from escalation in the Middle East.Fed target rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupWhile the August print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both avoided major upside surprises, markets reacted hawkishly as oil prices returned above $100 per barrel with no end to the supply crisis in sight.CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCommenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter warned of the severity of the resulting energy shock, as 30 million barrels per day will be unable to transit through the Strait of Hormuz or Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, with the Bab el-Mandeb Strait now also at risk.“Even after accounting for some overlap between these routes, the scale of the potential disruption is enormous relative to the ~100 million barrel per day global oil market,” it wrote in a post on X.Kobeissi noted increasing inflation expectations among US consumers, who saw price increases hitting 4.6% over the coming year — 1.1% more than their outlook at the start of 2026 — with gas prices and trade tariffs frequently referenced.US consumer inflation expectations data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X.comCLARITY Act rewrite faces crucial voteOn Tuesday, a day prior to the Fed decision, crypto markets will face their own reckoning as US officials debate the CLARITY Act.On Monday, Senate Republicans released what they called their “last, best and final offer” for the text of the Act, part of bipartisan negotiations that seek to provide the industry with a clear legal framework in the US.“After a year of intense daily bipartisan negotiations, this bill is ready,” Senator Cynthia Lummis, who released the 635-page updated proposal, said in an official release. “President Trump voluntarily agreed to unprecedented ethics restrictions, holding every federally elected official, judge, and their spouses to some of the toughest ethics restrictions in US history.”CLARITY now faces a procedural vote at 2:15 pm on Tuesday, requiring 60 votes to pass. Snap volatility could ensue on the back of the result. If the bill passes in its latest form, it can advance to the floor for Senate debate.“A no vote on Tuesday means opposing real ethics reforms on politicians’ personal investments, handing American leadership in digital assets to our foreign competitors, and leaving Americans with zero protections in the digital asset markets,” Lummis added.Speaking to podcast host Kyle Chasse on Saturday, crypto policy insider Tyler Williams, formerly a crypto adviser to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, was upbeat about Tuesday’s prospects.“What are the odds? I think they are better than they have ever been. We are closer — we are on the precipice of this becoming law,” he said. Among Polymarket users, the odds of CLARITY being signed into law in 2026 remain low. At the time of writing, there was a mere 34% chance of that outcome. Higher odds were last seen at the start of August.Betting odds for CLARITY Act passing into law. Source: PolymarketCrypto traders de-risk in advance of CLARITY, FedThe latest market analysis indicates that traders are removing risk prior to Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s headline events.Examining changes in open interest (OI) across exchanges, crypto sentiment platform Santiment argued that markets are already prepared for volatility ahead of both the CLARITY Act vote and Fed interest-rate announcement.“Everyone is watching Tuesday’s cloture vote and Wednesday’s Fed. The positioning data says the market already made its move,” it commented on Monday.Santiment data shows that OI in BTC terms, calculated from USD-denominated OI divided by the BTC price, fell 13.5% in the week through Sept. 11, from 321,497 BTC to 278,151 BTC, subsequently rebounding only modestly. At the same time, spot price itself fell by 5%.“Positioning sits about 20% below where it was before the mid-August rally,” Santiment added.Bitcoin OI data. Source: SantimentFunding rates repeat bullish trendsFunding rates continue to build bullish sentiment as BTC/USD trades near $80,000, new research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant argues.Since the end of May, aggregate funding rates across exchanges have gradually increased, following the end of a negative-rate period that began in early March. Funding rates reflect the balance of long and short interest among traders.“After a disbelief phase, during which funding rates reflected one of the most bearish sentiments ever seen in Binance derivatives, the buildup of shorts that followed a -52% drawdown ended up fueling May’s rally,” CryptoQuant commented in a blog post on Sunday. “It’s particularly interesting to observe how this bearish consensus has consistently shown up whenever Bitcoin was nearing the end of a correction.”CryptoQuant data shows that negative cumulative 30-day funding rates on Binance have accompanied the final stages of Bitcoin bear markets, as well as major corrections within bull markets.Bitcoin 30-day summed funding rates (Binance). Source: CryptoQuantPreviously, Cointelegraph reported on the ongoing lack of spot-market participation in Bitcoin’s recent upside, with analysis warning that the derivatives-led market momentum was unlikely to last.Bitcoin weekly support slips from bulls’ graspBitcoin’s price failed to defend a key support level during Sunday’s weekly close, ending around $76,800.Related: Here’s what happened in crypto todayBTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIn comments on Sunday, trader and analyst Rekt Capital reiterated that $78,300 was necessary to hold at the weekly close. Failure to do so, he warned, would open the path for Bitcoin to repeat its failed breakout from early May.An accompanying chart shows BTC/USD continuing to form a pattern of lower highs, keeping the long-term bear-market structure intact.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.comBitcoin also closed below its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,380, a trend line necessary to clear as part of a sustainable bullish trend change. Rekt Capital eyed the 21-week EMA at $72,270 as bulls’ next line in the sand.“Both of these EMAs tend to act as support in a Bull Market. So if they can’t hold sustainably as support then that would be a confirmation of the trend not being in a full-blown Bull Cycle yet,” he told X followers.The close nonetheless preserved a weekly bullish divergence on Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI), which continues to see higher lows through 2026.BTC/USD one-week chart with 21, 50 EMA; RSI. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to $79,000 on Friday after key US inflation data broadly conformed to expectations.Key points:US core CPI inflation data gained 0.3% month-on-month, surpassing expectations of 0.2%.Implied probabilities of an interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the Sep. 16 meeting rose to 85%.US bond yields will cause Bitcoin pain amid Fed policy tightening, QCP analysis warns.Bitcoin jumps 3% as “nervous” market digests CPI numbersData from TradingView showed renewed BTC price volatility ensuing after the August release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which came in at 3.4% year-on-year.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAfter initially dropping to $76,000, BTC/USD quickly reversed upward, gaining more than 3% on the day.The move echoed US equities, which also turned green after a weak start to the session. This was catalyzed by CPI conforming to expectations only a day after the Producer Price Index (PPI) overshot. The S&P 500 was up 1% at the time of writing, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index gained 1.1%.S&P 500 one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewUS bond yields also saw snap volatility. On the back of the CPI print, the 30-year yield whipsawed, first reaching its highest levels since June 2004 before falling to 5.309%.“This is a nervous market,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in a response on X.US 30-year bond yield one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAs WTI crude oil continued to circle $100 per barrel, the impact of the expanding US-Iran war and associated oil-supply squeeze was noticeable in the CPI numbers.“The index for gasoline rose 3.9 percent in August, accounting for over one third of the monthly all items increase. The index for energy increased 2.1 percent over the month,” an official news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed.The release also reported that core CPI increased by 0.3% in August, 0.1% more than anticipated.US CPI 12-month % change. Source: BLSIn response, traders doubled down on bets that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 0.25% at its Sept. 16 meeting. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed odds of such an outcome rising to 85% on Friday, increasing from 60% a week ago.Fed target-rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupFed officials are known to be split on the correct path for policy, with governor Christopher Waller last week indicating that he would be inclined to hold rates in their current 3.50-3.75% range should inflation data show at least “some signs of disinflation.”“What’s the cost of waiting one meeting? Hiking 25 basis points, one meeting right now, is not going to bring the CPI down to 2%,” he told Reuters.Analysis: Yield surge to become Bitcoin headwindDiscussing the implications of high bond yields going forward, trading company QCP Capital warned that Bitcoin bulls had little to look forward to. This is despite BTC/USD surging 25% in August after the US Treasury announced that it would step up debt buyback interventions.Related: Bitcoin buyers wary of July sub-$58K floor amid onchain data ‘anomaly’“The rise in US yields this year has been driven increasingly by tighter policy expectations and a risk premium common to both stocks and bonds, rather than by growth,” it wrote in its latest analysis. “This is the worst mix for Bitcoin: a competing 5% risk-free rate without the nominal-growth impulse that usually accompanies yield moves. It directly undercuts the narrative that carried Bitcoin from $63,000 to $82,000 in the second half of August, which leaned on the idea of a Treasury liquidity put providing structural support.”QCP argued that Bitcoin would ultimately benefit from these developments, but only once buyback operations have had time to inject sufficient liquidity into markets.