Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the final week of May with traders optimistic about an $80,000 rebound — will it end up as a liquidity grab?Bitcoin recovers from its trip to monthly lows as shorts above $80,000 could get squeezed next.Excitement is growing over a US-Iran peace deal, and stock markets are already heading to record highs.Inflation pressures remain a headache for the Federal Reserve as PCE data for April is released.Binance has seen conspicuously high net BTC inflows over the past ten days and has added 16,000 BTC in a month.Bitcoin faces multiple bearish catalysts, research warns, predicting a “large liquidation event” as a result.Bitcoin shorts face “significant” pressure at $80,000Bitcoin price action struggled over the weekend, dipping below $75,000 to its lowest levels since mid-April, per data from TradingView.A rebound then brought $77,000 back into focus in line with optimism around a US-Iran peace deal.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIn its latest market commentary, X analytics account Cryptic Trades called the dip a “fakeout,” noting its proximity to Bitcoin’s lowest levels of 2025, also seen in April that year.“We saw a brief deviation below the high-timeframe support range aligning with the April 2025 bottoming formation,” it summarized.BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Cryptic Trades/XCryptic Trades said that BTC/USD needed to reclaim its daily bull market support band — a “strong reversal zone over the last couple of months” — in order to have a bullish bias on low time frames.“Bulls need to keep holding this area to keep this short/mid timeframe momentum in their favor,” trader Daan Crypto Trades agreed.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/XTrader and analyst Lennaert Snyder referred to Bitcoin’s trip below $75,000 as a “very nice liquidity sweep.”“Strong daily close after the sweep and price is taking out the previous daily highs,” he told X followers. “I’m intraday bullish on Bitcoin, and I’m still eyeing that 79/80 level to retest. Would be great if the 74.2K low could get us there, I’ll watch 79/80K closely for quality shorts after my trigger.”Trader CW also eyed exchange order-book liquidity for clues as to how high the price might go next.“$BTC has risen to just before the high-leverage short position zone. The upcoming rise will be a liquidation process for short positions,” they predicted. “There is a significant amount of short position pressure until 80.5k.”BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CW/XIran peace deal bets send stocks to new highsThere may finally be some good news for risk assets when it comes to the US-Iran war this week.A peace deal between the two sides seems closer than ever, and markets are already pricing in the end of the conflict.US stocks futures surged at the weekly open, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting new all-time highs. Japan’s stock market gained 3.5%.S&P 500 futures vs. Nasdaq 100 futures one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewOil, by contrast, began to fall, with WTI crude nearing $90 per barrel. CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIn a post on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump pledged to make a deal that was “good and proper.”“Unlike those before me who should have solved this problem many years ago, I don’t make bad deals!” he wrote.Source: Truth SocialBitcoin’s response was more muted, continuing a trend from last week where stock market records failed to ignite upward momentum for crypto.Nonetheless, market participants are already betting on the peace deal acting as the next tailwind.“I think Bitcoin is ready for higher grounds,” trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe commented on X.Van de Poppe saw BTC/USD rising above $80,000 should a deal take effect.“That is likely the plan,” he concluded, seeing risk assets performing strongly across the board.BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/XInflation flips Fed hawkish ahead of PCE dataThe deal would also mean good news for US inflation trends, which have surged on the back of high oil prices.This week, however, both markets and the Federal Reserve will have to contend with April’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index print, which will reflect the full impact of the Iran conflict.PCE, known as the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge, will be the first for its new Chair, Kevin Warsh.US PCE % change (screenshot). Source: Bureau of Economic AnalysisExpectations remain that policy could tighten to contain inflationary pressures this year. In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company noted that even Fed officials themselves were changing their tone.“In a speech last week, Christopher Waller stated that ‘inflation is not moving in the right direction’ and can ‘no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road,’” it reported, referring to a member of the Fed Board of Governors. “Waller previously was a leading proponent for cutting rates on labor market concerns.”Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME GroupData from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool likewise underscores the lack of optimism when it comes to interest-rate cuts before 2027.While that is ostensibly a headwind for crypto, Mosaic acknowledged that Iran-based inflation upticks could be “temporary,” with stocks primed for further gains.Binance inflow “intensity” causes alarmGeopolitical uncertainty has led onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant to warn about a Bitcoin “sell signal.”In one of its QuickTake blog posts on Sunday, contributor Darkfost flagged nearly 10 days of BTC inflows to the largest global exchange, Binance. “On May 16th, the weekly average of inflows on Binance stood at 378 BTC. It now reaches 1,190 BTC today, representing a more than 3x increase in less than 10 days,” he revealed. “The largest single day recorded over 3,600 BTC on May 18th, a relatively high level for a single day that clearly illustrates the intensity of the movement.”Bitcoin netflows for Binance. Source: CryptoQuantDarkfost noted that Binance’s Bitcoin reserves had increased by 16,000 BTC in a single month.“When inflows become dominant and consistent on a platform like Binance, this is traditionally interpreted as a potential sell signal,” he continued. “Holders transferring their BTC to an exchange most often do so with the intent to sell, whether it be profit taking, reducing exposure, or a more defensive repositioning.”Last week, Cointelegraph reported on weak US demand causing consistent downside price pressure after the Wall Street open. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the difference in price between Coinbase’s BTC/USD and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs, hit its largest negative values in several months.Analysis warns of “large liquidation event”In further bad news for Bitcoin bulls, CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Japan described a cocktail of hurdles that remain unconquered.Related: Bitcoin price record 90-day uptrend ‘resembles bull market rally:’ New analysisIn addition to the weak demand, institutional capital has been exiting the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).“US spot Bitcoin ETFs have now seen more than $1.74 billion in cumulative outflows, while the Coinbase Premium has turned deeply negative. Since this metric is often viewed as a proxy for US institutional spot demand, it suggests that large investors are becoming less active buyers,” a QuickTake post read.Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuantBinance’s netflows, meanwhile, come as stablecoin volumes decrease — a sign of waning liquidity and reduced risk appetite.Traders who remain active, by contrast, are “aggressively long,” and positive funding rates imply that leverage is becoming more popular.“The problem is that Open Interest remains well below late-2025 highs. This suggests the recent rebound is being supported more by leveraged futures activity than by strong spot demand,” XWIN explained.Bitcoin open interest-weighted funding rate (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassLooking ahead, this combination of factors suggests that the market is due for a shakeout.“Historically, periods with ETF outflows, negative Coinbase Premium, weak spot demand, and crowded longs have often preceded large liquidation events,” the post concluded. “For now, Bitcoin looks less like a healthy bull market and more like a fragile rebound driven by leverage rather than real demand.”

Bitcoin (BTC) faced familiar selling pressure on Friday as US stock markets began setting fresh record highs.Key points:Bitcoin and crypto markets diverge from US stocks, with the Dow Jones pushing into price discovery at the Wall Street open.Analysis sees further potential upside for stocks coming next, including S&P 500 participants.BTC price action battles weak US demand as Binance buyers take the lead.Bitcoin slumps at US open while Dow Jones beats recordsData from TradingView showed BTC/USD retreating below $77,000 at the Wall Street open, down nearly 1.2% on the day.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe move continued a trend seen throughout the week where the start of US trading pressured crypto markets. BTC price action thus diverged from stocks, which began the day with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting fresh all-time highs — a move noticed by US president Donald Trump.The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also coiled below new record high levels.Source: Truth SocialIn its latest market commentary, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company argued that conditions could soon favor a broader stock-market push higher.“The average stock has been diverging negatively to the major indexes, which has been limiting breakout trading opportunities,” it wrote.“But an oversold breadth condition is already forming, which is also being confirmed by the MACD applied to the stocks trading above their 20-day MA. That could help spark a rally at least in the near-term and see the average stock catch up.”S&P 500 data with MACD. Source: Mosaic Asset CompanyMosaic referred to the moving average convergence/divergence indicator and stocks’ 20-day simple moving average.US Bitcoin buyers “unable to keep up” with BinanceMeanwhile, Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index continued to circle monthly lows in a sign of weak US demand.Related: Bitcoin price record 90-day uptrend ‘resembles bull market rally:’ New analysisSource: Cointelegraph/XCommenting, pseudonymous commentator Exitpump noted that unlike those on Coinbase, Binance traders were “stepping in” as buyers.“The negative value of the $BTC Coinbase Premium is growing larger,” trader CW wrote on X the day prior alongside data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant. “US investors are unable to keep up with Binance’s buying power.”Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuantCW suggested that the actions of Bitcoin whales may mean that current prices become a “buying opportunity.“Generally, whales utilize negative premiums to accumulate at relatively lower prices. This means that Coinbase whales are in a situation where they can accumulate at slightly lower prices,” they added.

Bitcoin (BTC) has trended up for 90 days and is seeing a “bull market rally,” analysis says.Key points:Bitcoin has trended up for 90 days within its bear market — something that has never happened before.Analysis thus sees price as being in a “bull market rally,” with February’s macro lows untouched.Separate commentary calls for a reclaim of the weekly supertrend nearer to $90,000 to confirm that bulls are back.Bitcoin internal bear-market uptrend makes historyIn a post on X on Thursday, trader and analyst Matthew Hyland said that Bitcoin’s recent rebound from macro lows has been unlike any other in history.“This BTC rally resembles a bull market rally NOT a bear market rally,” he summarized.BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAccording to Hyland, BTC/USD has been in a fresh uptrend since the last week of February. At the start of the month, the pair briefly fell below $60,000, hitting its lowest levels since late 2024.Since then, relief has taken over, with Bitcoin reaching local highs near $83,000 exactly three months after the February bottom, data from TradingView confirms.“There has NEVER been a rally that trended upward for 89 days ever in a bear market in BTC history,” he continued.“The break of high time frame resistance also has marked the start of a bull market rally the prior three times.”BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Matthew Hyland/XAn accompanying chart shows that resistance was cleared when the price first broke above and held $77,000.“Both of these characteristics are characteristics of a bull market rally NOT a bear market rally,” Hyland reiterated.Analyst: BTC price needs $88,000 reboundOn the topic of bear market expirations, independent analyst Filbfilb demands a higher resistance reclaim for confirmation that bulls are back in control.Related: Bitcoin due ‘5%+’ move as analysis stays bullish on BTC price outlookBitcoin’s weekly supertrend, currently near $90,000, is the line in the sand to watch.“The last 2 BTC bear markets ended with a >+20% weekly candle and a break of the weekly super trend – presently around $ 88k,” he told X followers. “If the bearish move we see in play at the moment fails, I’m expecting one of those candles to happen rather than much messing about around these levels.”BTC/USD one-week chart with supertrend data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe super trend is calculated using the average true range of price, coupled with a multiplier. BTC/USD last had a weekly close above the supertrend line in early November 2025.

Bitcoin (BTC) focused on $77,000 on Thursday as analysis eyed a minimum 5% BTC price move.Key points:Bitcoin waits for a breakout move as it circles the $77,000 mark.Analysis sees risk in shorting price at current levels, with bears in the firing line.Macro hurdles keep risk assets down across the board, while US bond yields cool.Trader sees 5% BTC price move “soon”Data from TradingView showed BTC price action sticking to a narrow range, with leveraged positions on either side of spot.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView“Some big clusters right around price. Most notably: the ~$78K area and the $76.5K-$77K area in the short term,” trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in his latest analysis on X. “Price has been in a pretty tight price range the past few days so expecting some larger 5%+ move to occur here soon again.”Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassData from CoinGlass revealed that short positions had taken the majority of losses across crypto over the 24 hours to the time of writing.“Bears on $BTC are getting SQUEEZED in real-time,” X analytics account Cryptic Trades commented. “While the price is going up, the Open-Interest has dropped by over 12K. This is exactly why you don’t short a BULLISH BACKTEST.”BTC/USDT one-hour chart with open interest data. Source: Cryptic Trades/XCryptic Trades remained optimistic about BTC market strength despite the loss of various support levels in recent days. Holding above $74,000, it continued, was the “most likely outcome.”“Shorting here, or hedging your spot holdings simply doesn’t make sense from a technical perspective, because the market structure remains intact,” it argued.BTC/USD three-day chart. Source: Cryptic Trades/XOil returns to triple figures on Iran cuesBitcoin and other risk assets faced familiar macro headwinds on the day, with WTI oil prices heading back above $100 per barrel.Related: BTC price ‘bull trap’ at $76.5K? Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekThe US-Iran war remained the key catalyst amid mixed reports over uranium enrichment and a permanent toll on oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe day prior, US President Donald Trump had sent oil and US bond yields lower with hints that an Iran peace deal was near.“It’s the same recipe, if this trend is prolonged and the deal is likely finalized, you’ll see yields continue to fall even more, especially in Japan,” crypto trader and analyst Michaël Van de Poppe responded. “If those yields come down — > risk-on assets to rally even higher.”US 30-year treasury yield one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) halted its latest recovery at Wednesday’s Wall Street open as US traders sold off.Key points:Bitcoin nears $78,000 before the US open spoils momentum, continuing a trend from earlier in the week.US stock markets await Nvidia earnings amid a tense macro atmosphere.Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium sees multi-month lows in a sign of “soft” US demand.BTC price stops short of $78,000 ahead of Nvidia numbersData from TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $77,678 on Bitstamp before the US trading session sparked fresh losses.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCopying its moves from the week’s first two trading days, Bitcoin faced tailwinds as US market sentiment stayed bearish on the macroeconomic outlook.The S&P 500 fell 1.3% before rebounding, with traders waiting for the week’s key potential volatility catalyst: Q1 earnings from tech company Nvidia.On Monday, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter described the numbers as the “biggest earnings event of the quarter.”Continuing, it noted the role of tech stocks in driving S&P 500 strength — even as the US-Iran war and associated inflation risk spooked other markets.“A handful of tech stocks are driving the entire market,” it summarized in a post on X.S&P 500 one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBitcoin Coinbase Premium reflects “soft” demandIn crypto circles, attention focused on the Coinbase Premium Index, which highlighted the ongoing lack of bullish sentiment during US trading sessions.Related: BTC price ‘bull trap’ at $76.5K? Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekThe Index, which measures the difference in price between Coinbase’s BTC/USD and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs, fell to its lowest levels since February on the day.Commenting in one of its QuickTake blog posts, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant said that spot Bitcoin demand “remains soft.”“The latest Coinbase Premium Gap reading stands near -$66.8, meaning Bitcoin is trading at a lower price on Coinbase Pro’s USD pair compared with Binance’s USDT pair. This is deeper than the late-March reading of around -$62.6, when Bitcoin was trading near $68,000,” contributor Amr Taha wrote. “The comparison is important because Bitcoin is now trading much higher, around $77,200, yet the Coinbase discount versus Binance is wider than it was when BTC was nearly $9,000 lower.”Bitcoin Coinbase Premium gap (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantOthers monitored familiar trend lines, including the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).As Cointelegraph reported, BTC/USD reclaimed that level on weekly time frames in late April, only to lose it again this week.“Bitcoin has Weekly Closed below the 21-week EMA (green) which technically positions price to potentially turn it into new resistance on any upcoming rebound,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital told X followers on Tuesday while analyzing the weekly chart. “Turning the 21-week EMA into new resistance would fully confirm the breakdown from it.”BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X