Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) gave back early-week gains into Monday’s Wall Street open as doubts compounded over a Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire.”Key points:Bitcoin reached $84,250 before falling 2.2% amid market nerves over oil supplies and the Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire.”Analysis saw too much “risk premium” priced in to oil markets in the face of improving shipping volumes.BTC options traders positioned “defensively” while keeping $90,000 and above on the table. Bitcoin pressured as Brent crude oil rises above $107Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $84,254 on Bitstamp, its highest level since Wednesday, before dropping up to 2.2%. BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe retreat came as Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of continuing to target energy infrastructure despite US president Donald Trump announcing a moratorium on such strikes. Elsewhere, Iran reported that an oil tanker had been hit and was ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz.Oil prices reacted sharply, with WTI crude spiking past $94 per barrel and Brent crude reaching $107.25 — its highest since Sept. 16.CFDs on Brent crude oil four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe increases come with markets already on edge ahead of key US inflation data in the form of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), due out on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. As Cointelegraph reported, CPI has proven particularly sensitive to rising oil prices.Commenting, Robin Brooks, former chief FX strategist at Goldman Sachs, argued that oil markets had priced in “too much risk premium,” pointing to improving Hormuz transit volumes.“Oil volumes out of the Persian Gulf are around 13 mb/d compared to a high of 16.5 mb/d a few weeks ago. This is still way better than the height of the war in March and April, but oil prices are back to their highs,” he noted in a blog post on the day.BTC bid support seeks to protect $82,000 Looking ahead to possible BTC price targets, trading company QCP Capital reported duality in Bitcoin options markets, with “defensive” positioning combined with traders considering an upside breakout to still be possible.Related: BTC price support holds ahead of US CPI data: Three things Bitcoin traders need to know this week“Implied volatility has held firm even as spot settled back into the range, while risk reversals show a less pronounced premium for puts than usual. Read together, the market looks less defensively positioned but still priced for a possible breakout,” it summarized in its latest analysis.“A clean move above $87k would bring $94k into focus.”Trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged $83,400 as local resistance on the day, with that level mirroring the area around $77,000 from mid-August through Sept. 21, when BTC/USD broke higher.BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.comData from CoinGlass showed ask liquidity clustered around $84,500 on exchanges, with the total at that level circling $180 million. Bids were building around $82,000 at the time of writing, with spot price trending toward that level.BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the third week of October by defending support at $82,500 ahead of key US inflation data.Key points:US CPI print on Wednesday and PPI data on Thursday provides the week’s major risk-asset volatility catalyst, with markets seeing CPI at 3.7% year-on-year.Oil prices react to the US plan to buy Russian diesel, but WTI crude heads higher after dropping below $90 per barrel on Monday.Bitcoin seals a weekly close above key support at $82,500, avoiding a drop into its previous 2026 macro range between $60,000 and $80,000.Markets see September inflation creeping higherUS inflation data is in traders’ crosshairs this week ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Oct. 28 meeting on interest-rate policy. The September prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. In August, CPI broadly conformed to expectations at 3.4% year-on-year, with markets now seeing an uptick to 3.7% this month on the back of ongoing military action in the Middle East and associated fuel-price surges. PPI is expected at 0.3% month-on-month versus 0.2% in August.US CPI 12-month % change by category. Source: Bureau of Labor StatisticsCrypto, stocks and gold traditionally benefit from lower-than-expected inflation readings as these reduce the odds of the Fed tightening policy, allowing for capital inflows to strengthen. Speaking to Reuters about current gold prices and US bond yields, Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, drew attention to the impact of a surprise move to the downside for CPI and PPI readings in particular.“In the ⁠short term, a cooler-than-expected US inflation reading would be the clearest near-term catalyst, as it ​would reduce the odds of further Fed tightening and ease pressure on real yield,” he said.CME FedWatch shows that markets see just an 18.8% chance of a rate hike on Oct. 28 from the current 3.75-4.00% range. The following meeting, in December, is attracting 70.6% odds of the Fed hiking by 25 basis points to 4.00-4.25%.Fed target-rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME GroupFed chair Kevin Warsh is due to hold a discussion with Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), at an event in Bangkok, Thailand on Friday.Oil briefly cools on US-Russia diesel announcementUS bond yields have come off 24-year highs seen last week, with the 10-year and 30-year yields at 5.24% and 5.60%, respectively, on Monday.US 10-year bond yield one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewStocks futures were green to start the week, with the S&P 500 index up 0.25% and around 30 points off new all-time highs.S&P 500 futures one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAn announcement by US President Donald Trump over a deal to buy 300,000 tons of diesel from Russia appeared to have only a modest knock-on effect on oil prices, with the plan facing growing bipartisan backlash. Trump also announced an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine.“Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed,” he wrote on Sunday in a post on Truth Social. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was unaware of the energy ceasefire. WTI crude traded around $91.50 per barrel on Monday, up 2% from the day’s low of $89.60. Data from motorist group AAA put the average price of diesel at $6.26 per gallon versus all-time highs of $6.52 seen on Sept. 22.CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewPVM ​analyst Tamas Varga told Reuters Russia’s reduced output capacity made the impact of the deal “questionable.”“However, Moscow has partially lifted its ban on diesel exports, allowing 500,000 tonnes (around 3.7 million barrels) to be released onto the international market, equivalent to roughly one day of US consumption and around 13% of global demand,” he noted.Bitcoin avoids support breakdown at weekly closeAt around $83,700 on Bitstamp, Sunday’s weekly candle close cemented a 3.2% weekly decline for BTC/USD.Related: Here’s what happened in crypto todayBTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAt the same time, the pair preserved a key support level at $82,500 on weekly time frames, thus avoiding a return to its previous long-term range between $60,000 and $80,000. As Cointelegraph reported, $82,500 remains on traders’ radar as a crucial line in the sand for Bitcoin bulls.Last week, trader and analyst Rekt Capital wrote that a weekly close above $82,500 would mark a “successful” support retest. This in turn could see investors continue to reaccumulate BTC at current levels, opening up the path higher in a manner similar to Bitcoin’s recovery from its 2022 bear market.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.comIn light of Bitcoin’s multiple support retests after its initial breakout in July, trader and analyst Aksel Kibar drew comparisons between crypto and stock markets. Since May, the S&P 500 has seen multiple retests at key levels, initially at 7,300 points and then at 7,600 points.S&P 500 one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBitcoin could be experiencing a “hard retest” of support in a similar manner, with the implication that BTC/USD should shift higher if those retests continued to be successful, Kibar wrote in an X post on Sunday.BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Aksel Kibar on X.com 

Bitcoin (BTC) sought to avoid fresh losses on Friday as crypto markets digested reports of an exploit affecting Ledger hardware wallets.Key points:Bitcoin rebounded from local lows of $80,350 to reclaim $83,000 at the Wall Street open.Crypto markets avoided significant selling pressure following reports of funds being stolen from Ledger hardware wallet users.BTC/USD continued to trade around $82,500 as traders looked ahead to the weekly close.BTC price rebounds to $83,000 despite Ledger theft reportsData from TradingView showed BTC/USD hovering around the key $82,500 support level on Friday.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAfter dropping to $80,350 on Thursday, BTC/USD saw fresh buyer interest as rolling 24-hour crypto liquidations passed $1 billion.The latest data from CoinGlass showed spot price cutting through ask-side liquidity on exchange order books, with that liquidity thickening around $84,000.BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlassUS stocks opened higher Friday as technology shares rebounded from selling earlier in the week. The recovery included the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, which CNBC reported had come under pressure following weaker-than-expected earnings projections from OpenAI.“The sell-off reflected extreme positioning imbalances that have further to unwind in our view, which is why the whole AI-linked tech stock complex is unlikely to simply stage a sharp, V-shaped rebound,” the publication quoted Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge as commenting.Crypto markets appeared to brush off reports of funds being stolen from Ledger hardware wallet users. In an X post, Ledger acknowledged the claims and linked them to CryptoBillis, a reseller based in Southeast Asia.“If you have set up your Ledger device, consider moving assets to a new Ledger signer (with new seed),” it advised.Crypto hardware wallets have faced increased security scrutiny in recent months after manufacturer Coldcard suffered a multi-phase hack in July and August.US macro data seen as next BTC price volatility catalystBitcoin traders were increasingly focused on the upcoming weekly candle close.As Cointelegraph reported, $82,500 remained a key level for bulls to reclaim, having served as support since mid-September. The level also formed part of a potential inverse head-and-shoulders reversal pattern similar to one that emerged in 2023.On Wednesday, Bitfinex Alpha, the research arm of crypto exchange Bitfinex, forecast range-bound trading conditions continuing until Oct. 14, when fresh US inflation data is due for release.“Our primary outlook anticipates range-bound consolidation between $81,300 and $86,500 heading into the 14 October US CPI data, with repeated retests of $84,000,” it wrote in a blog post.Related: Binance BTC outflows hit highest since mid-2023 as whales deposit stablecoins

A Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins sell-off triggered more than $1 billion in liquidations over 24 hours as short-term holders sent tens of thousands of BTC to exchanges at a loss.Key points:Crypto liquidations hit nearly $1.1 billion over 24 hours after Bitcoin dropped to $80,350.BTC price downside further boosted the odds of a breakdown below key support, analysis by Rekt Capital warned.Bitcoin short-term holders sent more than 55,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss on Thursday.Bitcoin drop to $80,350 fuels $1.1 billion liquidationsData from CoinGlass put total crypto liquidations at $1.09 billion for the 24 hours to 10 am UTC on Friday.This was the largest daily tally since Aug. 21, when BTC/USD rose from $73,000 to $79,500, setting two-month highs and triggering $1.3 billion in crypto short liquidations. Conversely, long positions accounted for $1.05 billion of Thursday’s total.BTC/USD vs. crypto liquidations. Source: CoinGlassThe sell-off followed reports of the US government moving more than 12,000 BTC that it had previously confiscated. Such transfers can fuel potential sales.BTC/USD dropped to $80,350 on Bitstamp, its lowest level since Sept. 18, before recovering to around $82,500 on Friday. That level remained key during Bitcoin’s broader uptrend since early July, and the breakout point for an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Bitcoin would need to hold it as support to confirm the bullish reversal.Trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who has tracked the reversal pattern and its similarities to Bitcoin’s 2023 recovery, now sees the upcoming weekly candle close as key.“Bitcoin is currently failing its retest of ~$82500. Weekly Close below $82500 and turn it into resistance however and Bitcoin will be back in its Macro Accumulation Range,” he said Thursday on X.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.comShort-term holders send 55,600 BTC to exchanges at a lossOnchain data also showed stress among newer Bitcoin investors as the market fell.Related: Bitcoin monthly ‘new money’ inflows near $5B as BTC price rally stallsAnalytics platform CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha reported that short-term holders — entities holding Bitcoin for up to six months without selling — sent 55,600 BTC to exchanges at a loss on Thursday.Transactions at a loss refer to coins being sent to exchanges at a lower price than during their previous transaction. They often reflect investors’ impulsive urge to exit their positions at a loss, fearing further downside if they delay their sales.CryptoQuant notes that Thursday’s loss tally was more than on June 26, when Bitcoin fell below $60,000 for the second consecutive day.“Notably, Bitcoin was trading above $81,000, compared with $59,300 in June — a price difference exceeding 36%,” the contributor wrote, adding that exchange users may not have opted to sell the entirety of their positions, even after moving them to their accounts.Bitcoin STH transactions in profit and loss to exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant“Historically, aggressive loss-driven selling by short-term participants can coincide with short-term capitulation, potentially exhausting weaker holders and creating conditions for a subsequent price recovery,” the report said.

Bitcoin (BTC) risked losing key support at $82,500 after Thursday’s Wall Street open as oil prices gained over concerns of US-Iran military action.Key points:Bitcoin returned to $81,000 for the first time since Sept. 21 amid fresh concerns about US-Iran military action.US 30-year bond yields set another multidecade high as a senior Fed official saw more interest-rate hikes coming.BTC price action increasingly suggested the loss of an important support level at $82,500.Oil spikes over reports of fresh US-Iran strikes to come Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping to $81,000 on Bitstamp — its lowest since Sept. 21.BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCiting a Pentagon official and a source familiar with the matter, NBC News reported that the US could be preparing for fresh military strikes on Iran. This sent oil prices higher on the day, with WTI crude reaching $93.20 per barrel, its highest since Oct. 2, and Brent crude hitting $105.88.CFDs on WTI crude oil four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewSpeaking to supporters at a rally in San Antonio, Texas, US president Donald Trump said that Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff was making progress with Iran on a peace deal, while acknowledging little personal interest in a diplomatic outcome.“I think the deal isn’t really something that I want to do, but they’re willing to offer us anything to stop,” he said, quoted by the Independent, seeing an end to the conflict “very soon.”The US 30-year bond yield set a new 24-year high of 5.73% on the day before dropping to 5.65% as markets stayed nervous about the war’s impact on fuel prices and inflation. US 30-year bond yield one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewComments by Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller added pressure to yields as he saw the need for further interest-rate hikes to tame inflation.“If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2 percent goal. But there is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur,” he said in a speech at a Central Bank of Turkey forum in Istanbul.“The hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings, but they should be in place in an acceptable period of time.”Fed target-rate probability comparison for December FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupThe latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed markets increasing bets on a 0.25% hike at the Fed’s December meeting. The odds of this outcome passed 70% on Thursday. Consensus for the October meeting continued to favor a rate pause at the current level of 3.75-4%.Bitcoin’s $82,500 support hangs in the balanceBTC price action kept traders waiting for a clear move around the $82,500 support level.Related: Bitcoin monthly ‘new money’ inflows near $5B as BTC price rally stallsPreviously, Cointelegraph reported that this support has significance within Bitcoin’s broader rebound from multiyear lows near $57,000 thanks to similarities with the end of the 2022 bear market.“Bitcoin is still in a transitional phase and at critical technical juncture. ~$82500 is the deciding price point when it comes to where Bitcoin builds out its next market structure,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital wrote in updated X analysis on the day.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.comBitcoin’s dip below $82,000 exacerbated cross-crypto long liquidations, with these at around $430 million at the time of writing, per CoinGlass data.