Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing strong signs that its latest long-term floor is already in, according to a classic trading indicator.Key points:In August, the Fisher Transform indicator delivered a monthly bullish crossover for only the fourth time in Bitcoin’s history, according to Willy Woo.Previous monthly crossovers accompanied the end of Bitcoin bear markets, including in late 2022, when the Fisher Transform Indicator hit -3.83.A bullish divergence continued on weekly time frames, echoing the closing stages of the 2022 BTC price downtrend.Analyst sees evidence of clean BTC price reversalIn an X thread on Friday, analyst Willy Woo flagged key readings from the Fisher Transform indicator, a price trend analysis tool created in 2002.The indicator smooths an asset’s price action to create a readable trend-strength chart. Market prices tend to spend more time around extreme values than ordinary statistical data. The Fisher transform corrects this by applying a log-based transform. The indicator is formed of two trend lines, the Fisher line and the trigger line, that fluctuate on a scale with zero at its center. The trigger line is derived from the Fisher line, plotted with a delay of one period. Woo shows that for Bitcoin, a sharp upward reversal in Fisher, where its two trend lines cross over one another, has corresponded to bear-market bottoms when viewed on monthly time frames.“BTC bottoms: 3 for 3 without fake out. Latest cross is the 4th on record,” he commented.BTC/USD one-month chart with Fisher Transform data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe cross in question occurred during July at -2.26, and if it continues to play out, history suggests that BTC/USD will embark on a new macro uptrend. Woo, however, notes that price could still consolidate and continue lower, referencing a corresponding phenomenon during bull markets where Fisher delivered a bearish crossover, only to offer a fresh bullish one later.This, he argues, is due to the presence of speculative traders during long-term BTC price uptrends, who influence market momentum because they are sensitive to short-term price moves. By contrast, during bear-market bottom phases, such traders are mostly absent, boosting the reliability of Fisher bottom signals.“When price falls to a point where investors find value, buy-pressure fires back up but we are devoid of speculators. Price reverses more cleanly without the choppy fake outs seen in tops. Hence bottoms are easier to define. This is seen in many signals, also seen in the Fisher Transform here,” he added. Fisher bullish divergence tracks 2022 bear marketThe weekly chart shows another Fisher bull structure in process throughout 2026. Here, the indicator hit its swing low of -2.85 at the end of December last year, with BTC/USD still at around $90,000. Related: Bitcoin treasuries buy just 5.9K BTC in three months as paper losses lingerBTC/USD one-week chart with Fisher Transform data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewSince then, Fisher has delivered a succession of higher lows while price itself sees lower lows, creating a bullish divergence. The same pattern emerged in 2022, with a bullish divergence in Fisher accompanying the final six months of Bitcoin’s previous bear market.BTC/USD one-week chart with Fisher Transform data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewDespite various onchain metrics triggering bear-market reversal signals in recent months, doubts remain over whether Bitcoin’s 21-month lows near $57,000 on July 1 really marked a new cycle bottom.Last week, Woo himself noted a lack of typical buyer interest at these lows, with bid-side activity suggesting that only a handful of large-volume investors were accumulating at the time.

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $76,500 after Thursday’s Wall Street open as investors snapped up US stocks following their recent dip.Key points:Bitcoin consolidated after dropping below $76,000 on the back of a 0.25% interest-rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. US equities rebounded, with the Nasdaq Composite Index gaining 1.5% as analysis saw upside continuation.Bitcoin price analysis retained its bullish slant on market conditions, with CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index circling 60/100 on Thursday.Bitcoin halts losses as US stocks turn greenData from TradingView showed that BTC price volatility was cooling over the last 24 hours, with only modest moves to take nearby liquidity. BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewData from CoinGlass showed both bid and ask liquidity thickening around the current spot price, a typical feature of rangebound trading conditions.BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap (Binance). Source: CoinGlassUS equities gained on the day, as investors sought to capitalize on the local downside that followed policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 Index and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively.Nasdaq Composite Index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewOn Wednesday, the Fed voted to increase benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4%. This was its first hike since July 2023, and signaled an end to three years of easing in which the Fed either cut rates or held them in the same range between meetings.Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter suggested that assets would continue to perform strongly despite the prospect of lower-liquidity conditions associated with the rate hikes. As Cointelegraph reported, central-bank rates are notching higher globally, as the European Central Bank hiked by 0.25% last week and the Bank of Japan is expected to follow suit on Friday.“The asset owner economy just keeps getting better,” it wrote in a post on X, referencing the day’s gains in the Nasdaq.Analysis sees BTC price trend “cooling, not turning”Bitcoin also enjoyed relief after falling to new month-to-date lows on Tuesday. At the time of writing, BTC/USD traded 0.5% higher on the day.Related: Bitcoin treasuries buy just 5.9K BTC in three months as paper losses lingerCommenting on the current market landscape, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant described macro conditions as a hurdle to the continuation of Bitcoin’s previous rebound that totaled 25% in August.“The trend is still bullish, but momentum and macro are working against it near-term,” head of research Julio Moreno wrote in its latest weekly report sent to Cointelegraph.Moreno noted that one of CryptoQuant’s proprietary indicators tracking BTC price cycles, the Bull Score Index, had dropped from 80 to 60 — the cut-off point for what it describes as “bullish conditions.”“Bitcoin is cooling, not turning. A Bull Score of 60 keeps the trend bullish, but fading US demand, rising altcoin inflows, and a week of macro risk — the delay of the CLARITY Act and a likely Fed hike — argue for consolidation. Watch $70K and $62K–$65K as support,” the report summarized.Bitcoin Bull Score Index. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin (BTC) is no longer a target for corporate treasuries as current buyers sit on unrealized losses, new research shows.Key points:Bitcoin corporate treasuries added just 5,900 BTC over three months, a fraction of 2025 acquisition rates.Previous buyers remained in unrealized losses on their holdings, with their aggregate cost basis at $80,500.Analysis shows fresh investor capital inflows stalling this week.BTC price action refuses to let Bitcoin treasuries break evenOnchain analytics platform Glassnode reveals that in 2026, listed companies bought around 5,900 BTC — less than 7% of their purchases in July 2025 alone. During that month, companies bought 89,000 BTC, even as BTC/USD traded above $100,000.Glassnode notes that for extant corporate treasuries, profitability remains conspicuously lacking.“Their average entry, the Corporate Treasury Cost Basis, sits at $80.5K, about 6% above spot, so the group as a whole is under water,” it commented in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain.Data shows that 2026 has only seen two attempts to reclaim that cost basis, both of which were ultimately unsuccessful as price failed to hold above it.“A buyer that has stopped buying and holds a paper loss is not support,” it continued.“A reclaim of $80.5K would put the treasuries back in profit and remove one layer of overhead supply; until then their entry is one more ceiling.”Bitcoin corporate treasury data. Source: GlassnodeBusiness intelligence company Strategy, which holds the world’s largest Bitcoin treasury, made its most recent BTC purchase at the end of August, adding 4,603 BTC in its first acquisition in two months. The cost basis of its 845,050 BTC holdings is currently $75,412.Glassnode sees “market in waiting” as capital dries upThe trend highlights the changes in sentiment that have accompanied Bitcoin’s ongoing bear market, with current macro conditions leaving investors uncertain about BTC price strength going forward.Related: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium hits monthly low as CLARITY Act vote squeezes US demandOn Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve enacted its first interest-rate hike since July 2023, marking the potential start of a cycle of policy tightening that traditionally presents a headwind for crypto market liquidity. Buyer appetite for Bitcoin exchange-traded products remains sensitive to short-term price fluctuations. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net outflows of $462.7 million in the five trading days through Sept. 11, reversing a trend that saw three consecutive weeks of net inflows.Glassnode attributes the ETF performance to a “market in waiting.” In addition, Bitcoin’s realized cap — the cumulative price at which the supply last moved onchain — has begun to fall as of Sept. 15, indicating a lack of fresh buyer appetite at current prices. Realized cap currently sits at around $1.069 trillion.“A return to positive daily Realized Cap changes would say the buyers are back; a run of outflows while price sits under the mean would mean the range’s buyers have started to give up,” it concluded.Bitcoin realized cap vs. exchange 30-day net position change. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed near monthly lows at Wednesday’s Wall Street open as markets awaited the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates.Key points:Bitcoin continued to trade under $76,000 into the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. It stands near its lowest levels since Aug. 21.Markets saw nearly 93% odds of the Fed enacting a 0.25% rate hike, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75-4%.Onchain support thickened at $68,000 as bid liquidity moved toward the current spot price.Fed rate-hike odds pass 90% despite Trump demandsData from TradingView showed BTC/USD trading below $76,000 after hitting new September lows of $74,960 the day prior.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe weakness occurred as the CLARITY Act failed to garner enough votes in the Senate to advance to the debate stage, falling short of the 60 required. Now, attention has turned to the Fed, as it is facing a balancing act between taming inflation and satisfying the demand of US president Donald Trump, who has repeatedly demanded that rates be cut.The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the odds of officials confirming a 0.25% rate hike at over 90% at the time of writing, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75-4%.Fed target rate probabilities for Sept. 16 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupCommenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that these odds made a rate hike a near certainty.“In data going back to 2008, whenever expectations of a hike have been this high, the Fed has invariably delivered one. If the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged today, it would mark the biggest dovish surprise at a scheduled policy meeting since 1994,” it wrote in a post on X.The meeting marks just one of three central-bank rate decisions this month. The European Central Bank enacted a 0.25% hike last week, while the Bank of Japan is expected to do likewise at its Friday meeting, bringing its benchmark rate to 1.25%, its highest in 31 years.Central banks worldwide face increasing price pressures as oil supply chains battle the impact of an expanding war in the Middle East. US WTI crude oil hit $106.70 per barrel on Tuesday, its highest level since May 4.CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAs Cointelegraph had reported earlier, oil-price increases have had a pronounced knock-on effect on US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation.Bitcoin price support converges around $70,000Analyzing short-term BTC price action, onchain analytics platform Glassnode considered where BTC/USD could fall to should it deviate further from its local range, which has been in place since Aug. 21.Related: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium hits monthly low as CLARITY Act vote squeezes US demand“Resting bids, the buy orders waiting in the book, have pulled in toward price. Nearly two thirds of the bids resting within 20% of price now sit between 1% and 10% below it, up from about half at the start of the year,” it reported in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain.Bitcoin spot-market order-book depth data. Source: GlassnodeExchange order-book bid liquidity points to $68,000 as the next line of support. Price currently sits just below the True Market Mean, the aggregate cost basis of the currently active BTC supply. The aggregate cost basis of short-term holders, defined as wallets holding an unspent transaction output (UTXO) for less than six months, provides another potential support level at $71,300.“If the range breaks and those bids are used up, the next floor is the on-chain one at $62K to $65K, where the heaviest block of supply below the market was last bought,” Glassnode added, referring to the price at which around 9% of the supply last moved onchain.

Bitcoin (BTC) demand is under pressure in the US as investors react to the failure of the CLARITY Act to advance in the Senate.Key points:Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium Index fell to -0.079 on Tuesday, its lowest level since Aug. 16.US sell-side pressure diverged from other major exchanges as the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate.Short-term holders sent 34,000 BTC to exchanges in the last 24 hours, potentially for sale at a loss. This constitutes the largest inflow in a month.Analyst sees “bullish” signal as Coinbase selling diverges from BinanceSenators failed to give CLARITY the necessary 60 votes on Tuesday, leaving only a handful of options for returning the key piece of crypto legislation to the debate stage before 2027. Bitcoin saw downside pressure on the back of the news, as US demand in particular suffered from the decision. Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows the Coinbase Premium dropping to one-month lows of -0.079 on Tuesday.The Coinbase Premium, which measures the difference in price between Coinbase’s and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs, briefly turned positive at the start of the week, reaching 0.004, but fell deeper over the course of Monday. It currently sits at its lowest levels since Aug. 16, when BTC/USD traded at around $63,000.Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuantA negative Coinbase Premium implies a comparative lack of demand from Coinbase traders compared to Binance users. The premium has spent much of 2026 in the red, underscoring the exodus of investor capital as Bitcoin fell from its latest all-time highs of $126,200 seen in October 2025.Responding, onchain analyst Willy Woo flagged that the divergence in seller behavior between Coinbase and non-US exchanges intensified around the vote. Woo produced a chart of cumulative volume delta (CVD) data by exchange, denominated in BTC since Sept. 6. CVD measures the difference between net buyer and seller volume over a single candle, adding each candle’s data to the total for a given period. Around Sept. 11, Binance CVD began to move higher, while Coinbase continued to fall as sellers there remained firmly in control.“I see the US selling with the failed Clarity Act (on Coinbase) Meanwhile the more dominant global offshore continues accumulating (on Binance),” Woo wrote in a post on X, describing the scenario as “bullish.”BTC/USD chart with CVD data. Source: Willy Woo on X.comShort-term holders send BTC to exchanges in unrealized lossContinuing, CryptoQuant showed that the bulk of reactive selling from the CLARITY failure came from newer Bitcoin investors.Related: CLARITY Act vote meets Fed rate hike: Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekShort-term holders (STH), wallets holding an unspent transaction output (UTXO) for less than six months, sent up to 34,000 BTC to exchanges on a rolling 24-hour basis. The majority of these coins were transferred to exchanges at a lower price than when they last moved onchain.“With 23 200 BTC sent to exchanges at a loss, this STH capitulation event is the largest recorded over the past month,” CryptoQuant reported in a blog post.Bitcoin STH cumulative 24-hour profit and loss to exchanges (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantPreviously, Cointelegraph reported that STH unrealized profitability had reached a key milestone for 2026, potentially boosting the odds of a long-term bullish BTC price trend change.