Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin sees first downward difficulty move in 5 months amid 'uncertainty' over hodler spending

Bitcoin (BTC) is in a tight battle between bulls and bears and the network is now reacting, data shows.Trackers reveal that this week, Bitcoin difficulty snapped an 18-week green streak to post its first decrease since July.Difficulty adjusts to 20% BTC price dip Amid cyclical short-term price action, concern remains that Bitcoin is not done retracing from its latest $69,000 all-time highs.Having surprised analysts and even rejected one lifelong price model, BTC/USD over the past month feels like uncharted territory — despite roughly doubling year to date.“With Bitcoin now over 20% below the all-time-high, headlines in traditional media have declared that Bitcoin has entered a bear market,” on-chain analytics firm Glassnode summarized in its latest weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain.”“However, it may surprise some readers that this current market correction is actually the least severe in 2021. Some might even say business as usual for a Bitcoin HODLer.”Nonetheless, network fundamentals are now taking the latest dip into account. On Dec. 28, difficulty fell 1.5% — after rising continually for nine straight periods. The next adjustment is currently slated to produce a further decrease of nearly 2%.Bitcoin difficulty 7-day average chart. Source: BlockchainLong-term holder spending sparks “uncertainty”Surveying the landscape, Glassnode did not rule out further price declines. Related: Bitcoin tests traders’ nerves as analyst reissues $400K BTC price forecastA combination of long-term holder selling, high open interest on derivatives markets and other phenomena could spark a continuation of the downtrend to new local lows.“Open interest leverage in options and futures at or near ATHs, which is cause for some concern regarding heightened “flush out” potential. Funding rates suggest an only slightly positive bias, making both a long- or short-squeeze plausible scenarios,” it concluded.Regarding LTH behavior, it added:“Long-Term Holders have distributed 5.8% of the supply accumulated since March and some uncertainty exists based on their spending patterns.”Long-term holder spent price annotated chart. Source: GlassnodeDiscussing open interest, meanwhile, analyst Willy Woo noted that in a post-exchange-traded fund (ETF) environment, activity may just remain higher and not necessarily signal turbulence on the horizon.“IMO it doesn’t necessarily need to be flushed,” he tweeted. “It could be a sign of the time with and uptake of the cash and carry trade post futures ETFs.”BTC/USD circled $56,000 at the time of writing on Dec. 2 after spending the past 24 hours repeating a run to $59,000 and subsequent rejection.

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Bitcoin tests traders’ nerves as analyst reissues $400K BTC price forecast

Bitcoin (BTC) was on repeat on Dec. 2 as markets watched another attack on $60,000 end in defeat.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView“Nothing has changed”Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD back at $57,000 Thursday, having come full circle in 24 hours.The pair had briefly hit $59,000 into the Wall Street open the day prior, this failing to hold as another round of macro triggers skewed sentiment to the downside once more.Bitcoin thus fell in line with stocks reacting, it seemed, to continued concern over the new coronavirus omicron variant. The S&P 500 ended the day down 1.2%.With a sense of frustration pervading crypto markets, analysts took the opportunity to reassert a longer-range perspective.“It’s very simple. Below $60K I’ve remained cautious/bearish as I’d like to see that area flip,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized. “Levels to watch for buys; $53K-54K zone and $47-50K zones for Bitcoin. When to buy altcoins? December. Nothing has changed past weeks.”Those buy target lows were accompanied by renewed predictions for this cycle’s bullish peak, which, as in April this year, place BTC/USD at up to $400,000.Reminder, peak high bull cycle prediction; #Bitcoin to $350,000-450,000#Ethereum to $10,000-17,500#Polkadot to $250-350#Chainlink to $250-350#Cardano to $10-20#Zilliqa to $5-7#Elrond to $1.500-1.750 (already hit – > revised now)#DIA to $50-75Some might be conservative. https://t.co/rgZOEyljC0— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) December 1, 2021Fellow analyst TechDev, eyeing Fibonacci levels on the two-week chart, also described Thursday as “another day to zoom out.”Open interest stays near all-time highsOn exchanges, open interest, meanwhile, remained a source of concern due to its sheer volume relative to price action.Related: Bitcoin fails ‘worst-case scenario’ monthly close for the first time, starts December sub-$57KData from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode showed open interest on Bitcoin futures recently matching its second-highest levels in history, nearing its April record.“At some point, this open interest is going to get flushed out one direction or the other,” analyst William Clemente commented.Bitcoin futures open interest 7-day moving average chart. Source: William Clemente/TwitterWith cyclical price action characterizing the week, the mood thus stayed favoring an ultimate exit up or down, with derivatives structures being “reset” as a result. Funding rates were mostly neutral across exchanges Thursday.

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