Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) traded below $82,000 after Monday’s Wall Street open as crypto diverged from rising stocks and bond yields.Key points:Bitcoin gave up early-week gains as ask liquidity amassed above $83,000 across exchanges.The Nasdaq Composite Index followed Asian equities higher, gaining 1.5% in the first hours of trading on Monday.US bond yields continued to move in lockstep with stocks, with the 10-year yield back at 5.13% ahead of major corporate earnings announcements.Bitcoin treads water as stocks, bond yields reboundData from TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping to $81,678 on Bitstamp after reaching $83,062 earlier in the day.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBoth Asia and US equities rallied to start the week, helping to recoup losses from the week prior as selling pressure on tech stocks eased. South Korea’s tech-heavy KOSPI Composite Index finished the day 1.76% higher at 5,768 points, while the Nasdaq Composite Index was up 1.5% at the time of writing.Nasdaq Composite Index one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewContinuing a pattern observed in recent weeks, US bond yields rose in lockstep with equities ahead of anticipated strong corporate earnings by tech giants. Several of these are due for release on Tuesday and Wednesday, including Meta, SpaceX and Tesla. The US 10-year and 30-year yields reached 5.13% and 5.46%, respectively.US 10-year bond yield one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIn its latest analysis, trading company QCP Capital saw bond-market stability as key to Bitcoin upside momentum. It also warned that BTC could suffer from a repeat of last week’s tech-stock sell-off.“Broader equity deleveraging dynamics could transmit to cryptocurrency markets and potentially threaten the $80,000 support level if sustained. Conversely, a sustained Treasury rally could provide support for risk assets, particularly if accompanied by declining real yields and a weaker US dollar,” it wrote.$83,000 sellers keep BTC price in checkOn lower time frames, Bitcoin price action encountered friction after ask liquidity thickened above $83,000 on exchange order books.Related: Stocks rebound into key tech earnings: Three things to know in Bitcoin this weekData from CoinGlass showed this wall of asks pressuring BTC/USD lower, while 24-hour cross-crypto liquidations totaled $335 million.Crypto liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlassAmid rangebound conditions, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant showed Bitcoin whales reducing activity. The Binance whale ratio, which records the share of the 10 largest inflow transactions relative to total inflows, fell to 0.45 from 0.54 at the start of October.“The decline in the Whale Ratio indicates that the proportion of large BTC deposit transactions relative to total exchange inflows is decreasing, potentially reflecting shifts in whales’ trading strategies and asset management activities,” CryptoQuant summarized.Binance Bitcoin exchange whale ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the third week of October at $82,000 as crypto and stock markets begin a tentative rebound.Key points:South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index gained nearly 1.8% on Monday after last week’s tech-driven losses.Markets have priced out two further interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2026, seeing 75% odds of only one 25-basis-point hike by the end of the year.Bitcoin delivered a weekly close below key local support after the Coinbase Premium Index hit -0.14, its lowest level since late June.Asia leads equities bounce ahead of tech earningsA lighter week of US macro data prints will shift the market’s attention to corporate earnings as stocks rebound from last week’s sell-off. Some 15% of S&P 500 companies are due to report third-quarter earnings figures this week, including SpaceX on Tuesday and Tesla and Meta on Wednesday. Tech-stock performance remains in focus after a major drawdown last week that began with South Korean markets. The KOSPI Composite Index lost 2.8% on Oct. 12 before dropping to the week’s low of 5,455 on Thursday, bringing the week-to-date losses temporarily to 17%. KOSPI Composite Index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewContagion spread to neighboring Asian markets before US equities began to weaken later in the week. The S&P 500 index finished Friday down 2% for the week.As in early August, tech stocks saw considerable sell-side pressure amid concerns over AI expenditure plans and the associated debt obligations. In Korea, the threat of competition in semiconductor manufacturing from China exacerbated the downturn.Warnings of a “Black Monday” event on global stock markets spread through social media over the weekend. The panic, which coincided with the 39th anniversary of the 1987 Black Monday crash, appeared misplaced, with KOSPI gaining 1.8% on Monday and S&P 500 futures 0.7% higher at the time of writing.S&P 500 futures one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCommenting on the disconnect between public sentiment and market performance, market commentator The Kobeissi Letter suggested that stocks should outperform based on investor demand. Persistent high US inflation and a global energy crisis have positioned equities for a surge on any potential signs of conditions improving.“All while the AI Revolution continues to accelerate and many large-cap technology stocks become cheaper on a forward earnings basis, even as their stock prices rise. And in the background, the demand for asset ownership is historically robust,” it summarized in analysis last week.Kobeissi noted that while tech giants led S&P 500 strength, 80% of index stocks are trading at least 10% below all-time highs.Fed rate-hike bets cool despite inflation data overshootAhead of the Federal Reserve’s next decision on interest-rate changes on Oct. 28, markets have tempered their expectations on policy tightening.Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows 85% odds of rates staying within their current 3.75-4.00% range in October. The Fed’s December meeting, meanwhile, carries just 11% odds of a further pause. Instead, markets see a 75% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, with a 50-basis-point move attracting 13% odds.Fed target-rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME GroupIn a discussion with International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva last week, Fed chair Kevin Warsh avoided any hints of forward guidance on policy, reinforcing a pledge made at the Jackson Hole economic symposium in August. “I don’t prejudge meetings. I don’t believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year,” he said.Markets, however, interpreted the lack of information as a dovish signal, doubling down on the Fed hiking rates just once more before 2027.Adopting a cautionary tone, meanwhile, market commentator Mosaic Asset Company saw inflation trends forcing the Fed to avoid easing off, keeping a crypto and risk-asset headwind in place.“While investors expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady at its next meeting later this month, a growing inflation problem will keep favoring tighter monetary policy,” it wrote in analysis on Sunday.The September print of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) released last week showed the ongoing impact of the Middle East crisis on fuel prices. PPI delivered its largest month-on-month increase since March 2022 at 1.7%.“Half of the September increase in the index for final demand goods can be traced to prices for gasoline, which jumped 20.3%,” the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.Fuel also accounted for more than half of the September increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which beat expectations by 0.1% to hit 3.7% year-on-year.Related: Bitcoin, Ether ETFs shed $549M as October ETH outflows near $1BBTC price analysis sees more $80,000 support retestsBitcoin price action completed a weekly candle close below a key support zone of interest between $82,500 and $82,800.The weekly close came in at $82,000, a move that crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned could spark further retests of the $80,000 mark in the future.“Such a Weekly Close would position Bitcoin for a potential bearish retest of ~$82500 into new resistance. And if that bearish retest occurs successfully then it could set price up for a drop below $80k within the next few weeks,” he wrote in analysis on X.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewPreviously, Cointelegraph reported on September’s local high near $87,000 now hosting multiple resistance components, including the 2026 yearly open and its 20-month simple moving average (SMA). In its latest market overview, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant flagged declining US investor demand as a reemerging BTC price headwind this month. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the difference in price between Coinbase’s and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs, fell to -0.141 on Oct. 18, its lowest levels since June 30.“This reading is particularly significant. If the index remains in negative territory, it could indicate insufficient demand to absorb selling pressure, potentially increasing the likelihood of a continued price correction in the short term,” CryptoQuant commented. Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuantThe lack of demand contrasts with BTC/USD holding gains made since the end of June, having bounced from new multiyear lows under $58,000 on July 1.Magazine: Can the SEC and CFTC’s pro-crypto rules be overturned? Legal opinion

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $82,000 around Friday’s Wall Street open as crypto markets stabilized alongside a rebound in South Korean stocks.Key points:Bitcoin price volatility eased as South Korean stocks rebounded 2% on Friday, offering relief after a steep sell-off.Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh gave no indication of further interest-rate hikes during a public discussion, as traders lowered the odds of a 25-basis-point increase in October to 15%.Analysts warned of difficult choices for Washington as the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed back to 5.13% and US stocks traded in a narrow range.Traders see dovish edge to Warsh commentsData from TradingView showed BTC/USD holding most of its reclaimed ground after bouncing at $80,000 on Thursday.BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe earlier decline followed a weeklong sell-off in South Korean tech stocks, although Friday’s Asian trading session brought some relief. The KOSPI Composite Index closed at 5,668, up 2% on the day but still down 8.3% for the week.KOSPI Composite Index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewUS stocks largely avoided the sell-off in Asian markets but were mixed on Friday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index down 0.5% and the S&P 500 up 0.5%.Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh offered investors some relief by avoiding any mention of further interest-rate hikes during a discussion with International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.“I don’t prejudge meetings. I don’t believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year,” he said.Markets appeared to take Warsh’s tone as a dovish signal on rate hikes. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October falling to 15%, down from 27% the previous day.Fed target-rate probabilities for October FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupEconomist Robin Brooks suggested that stress in the AI sector, a key driver of the Korea sell-off, could be at the heart of the Fed chair’s more aloof approach.“Warsh gave no indication the Fed’s in any hurry to hike, so the October meeting is now pretty much off the table in terms of a hike,” he wrote in a blog post, adding:“What’s helping the Fed is fears of an AI blow-up, which is making markets more receptive to a dovish message.”US bond yields eye rebound as stocks halt upsideElsewhere, US bond yields began rising as stocks steadied, prompting suggestions that the US treasury may ultimately be forced to choose between taming the bond sell-off and keeping stocks bullish.The US 10-year yield stood at 5.07% on Friday, having briefly attempted to reverse higher, reaching 5.13%.US 10-year bond yield one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewRelated: Bitcoin may seek 20-month trend line reclaim before new record highs: CryptoQuantMarket commentator The Kobeissi Letter noted that stock weakness has been the sole source of bond-yield corrections since August. In an X analysis published Thursday, Koebissi suggested equities may be in a paradoxical “‘bull-bear’ market.”Without the US-Iran war, stocks would be far higher, it argued, adding that persistent inflation was driving investor demand for asset exposure — even as the Fed began a new rate-hike cycle.“Even as the S&P 500 hits year #5 of its bull market, we believe a steep discount is currently priced into equities. This discount has functioned as a ‘stealth’ bear market, suppressing equity valuations in the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies,” it concluded, adding:“This backdrop has the ability to catalyze a violent rally in the S&P 500 if and when it is ultimately priced-out.”S&P 500 average bull-market returns comparison. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X.com

Bitcoin is attempting to break through an “inflection frontier” that has historically triggered runs to new macro highs.Key points:Bitcoin (BTC) may continue to new all-time highs if it successfully breaks through its 20-month moving average at $87,165, CryptoQuant reported.The market cycle signals metric showed BTC/USD poised to reclaim this “inflection frontier,” which it lost in December 2025. CryptoQuant’s bull-bear market cycle indicator continued to show Bitcoin as being in a bull market.Analysis: Bitcoin “reset” complete as key trend line reappearsData from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals that BTC/USD has begun a fresh battle with its 20-month simple moving average (SMA).The 20-month SMA, at $87,165 as of Oct. 16, is the trend line around which the popular Bollinger Bands metric is constructed. This in turn forms the basis for CryptoQuant’s market cycle signals tool, which seeks to pinpoint Bitcoin’s position within its market cycle.Bollinger Bands uses standard deviation to add an upper and lower band around the 20-month SMA. Currently, these sit at $121,640 and $52,694, respectively. CryptoQuant’s indicator describes the zone between the lower band and SMA as an “accumulation base,” while the SMA itself is referred to as an “inflection frontier,” a previous point of investor capitulation as price broke below it from above, most recently in December 2025.BTC/USD one-month chart with Bollinger Bands. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewWith Bitcoin now preparing to challenge the capitulation zone from below, history shows that successful breakouts have led to new cycle highs.“Just over a year after the all-time high (ATH) of $124,709 on October 6, 2025, the market has concluded its ‘reset,’” CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain summarized in a blog post.While Bollinger Bands are not intended to offer buy and sell signals, market cycle signals sees “smart money” taking profit once BTC/USD reaches its upper band. While this currently sits just below Bitcoin’s most recent all-time high of $126,200 from October 2025, CryptoQuant sees the next rally continuing beyond that level.“While retail fears the current $82,442, thinking it’s the ‘top,’ the on-chain indicator BTC: Market Cycle Signals reveals that we are just warming up,” GugaOnChain added, referring to a current BTC price support zone.Bitcoin market cycle signals chart. Source: CryptoQuantThe 20-month SMA has confluence with Bitcoin’s 2026 opening level at $87,490, boosting its strength as resistance. As Cointelegraph reported, large walls of ask liquidity remain in the vicinity across exchange order books.Onchain data shows entrenching Bitcoin bull marketCryptoQuant maintains a broadly optimistic stance on Bitcoin’s emerging bull market despite crypto and risk assets navigating macroeconomic headwinds.Related: Here’s what happened in crypto todayThis week, contributor XWIN Research Japan flagged data from three onchain metrics that they said gave reason for “cautious optimism” for bullish momentum to return through the end of October.In late August, CEO Ki Young Ju officially stated that the bear market was “over” based on readings from the bull-bear market cycle indicator. This uses composite data from several onchain profitability metrics, and shows bullish momentum accelerating with a reading of 0.186 on its scale versus 0.042 in August.Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle Indicator. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $80,000 on Thursday as US Producer Price Index (PPI) data significantly beat expectations.Key points:Bitcoin briefly traded below $80,000 on the back of a 100-basis-point overshoot in US PPI inflation data.September PPI measured 6.3% against market expectations of 5.3%, the biggest monthly jump since March 2022.BTC price analysis saw the potential for a “volatile retest” of trend lines around $78,000 next.Biggest PPI increase since March 2022 adds to Bitcoin tailwindsData from TradingView showed BTC/USD slipping to its lowest levels since Sept. 18, declining as much as 1.8% on the day, before rebounding to around $81,000.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewSeptember PPI came in at 6.3%, a full 100 basis points above its anticipated level, while core PPI rose to 5% versus an expected 4.4%, per data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).“The September increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7% in March 2022. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand climbed 6.3% for the 12 months ended in September, the largest 12-month increase since moving up 6.4% in December 2022,” an official news release confirmed.US PPI one-month % change. Source: BLSThe numbers come a day after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) also overshot estimates, causing crypto and risk assets to fall. Risk assets were already under pressure from a tech sell-off centered in South Korea, where the KOSPI Composite Index fell 7.5% on Thursday.Economist Mohamed El-Erian described PPI as “even more striking” than the CPI result. El-Erian and others noted that US bond yields were not rising on the back of higher inflation numbers. The US 10-year bond yield was down almost 3% at the time of writing, at its lowest levels since Sept. 23.US 10-year bond yield one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewRobin Brooks, former chief FX strategist at Goldman Sachs, repeated earlier findings which suggested that yields had “decoupled” from US macro data as market priorities switched to the government’s handling of the federal budget deficit.Brooks compared the 30-day correlation between upside data surprises and daily moves in the 10-year yield, and revealed that it had dropped from near 0.6 earlier in 2026 to just below zero as of the end of August.“That indicates that yields have decoupled from data and the obvious explanation for this is that markets are more focused on the trajectory of the deficit, so they’re pushing up longer-term yields regardless of what data surprises are doing,” he summarized in a blog post last month.Analysis eyes “early-stage bull market” support retestBTC price action meanwhile brought two support trend lines back into focus: the 21-week and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMA) at $76,144 and $78.459, respectively.Related: CryptoQuant’s 3 charts keeping Bitcoin’s ‘Uptober’ thesis validTrader and analyst Rekt Capital noted that BTC/USD could still retest both and preserve its overall bullish trend.“Deviating below them on a volatile retest to find a pullback bottom has historically happened in early-stage Bull Markets. These deviations however would occur after a bullish crossovers of these two EMAs, whereas Bitcoin is still pre-crossover,” Rekt Capital said in an X post.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.comBitcoin remained below the area between $82,500 and $82,800, a key support zone of interest in recent weeks.Analyst Aksel Kibar said that Bitcoin’s latest weekly close around $83,700 lacked strength as a breakout. “A weekly close inside the range can resume wide consolidation between 60K-82.8K 75K can be utilized as the pattern (rectangle bottom reversal) negation level,” he said.BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Aksel Kibar on X.com