Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) falling more than 50% from its $126,200 all-time high was a “positioning correction,” BlackRock says.Key points:A BlackRock report attributes Bitcoin’s decline below $60,000 to cascading liquidations as leverage was purged from the market.The long-term BTC investment thesis as a “low-correlation diversifier” remains intact, analysts confirm.BlackRock sees Bitcoin’s risk-asset correlation declining as time goes on.BlackRock predicts falling correlation of BTC with risk assetsIn a report published this week, the world’s largest asset manager preserved its bull thesis despite waves of outflows from its spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2026.BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net outflows of $78.9 million in the week through Aug. 14. Across all ETF products, outflows totaled $267.2 million.“We view bitcoin’s ~50% pullback from October 2025 highs as a positioning correction rather than a change in its investment case. A historically overleveraged market, enabled by perpetual futures, suffered cascading liquidations compounded by slowing ETP outflows and digital asset treasury demand,” the report states.US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside InvestorsDuring last year’s peak, Bitcoin experienced a surge in speculative positioning. BlackRock pointed to open interest on Bitcoin derivatives markets passing $90 billion in early October amid heavy use of leverage. The unwinding of these positions increased the correlation between BTC/USD and risk assets more broadly. “A macro-driven risk-off catalyst (China tariff headlines) triggered large-scale deleveraging across precious metals and crypto markets. The resulting liquidation waves drove prices down to cycle lows below $60,000 per bitcoin by June 2026,” it explained.Bitcoin futures open interest data (screenshot). Source: BlackRockInstitutional Bitcoin demand has suffered this year as a combination of geopolitical uncertainty and growing inflation pressures saw capital flowing into established risk-asset classes, among them US equities, with the S&P 500 hitting record highs last week. Bitcoin has failed to follow suit, but BlackRock forecasts that this may change.“With speculative excess now largely purged, we believe bitcoin’s recent episodes of elevated risk correlation should normalize lower, consistent with its longer-term record as a low-correlation diversifier,” it continued.Longer-term resilience of BTC stands outThe report highlights that long-term BTC investment returns follow key political and macro events. These include the COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020, the US presidential election the same year, as well as the regional banking crisis and president Donald Trump’s multiple international trade-tariff declarations. Related: Bitcoin price spike to $64.5K was ‘low-volume liquidity trap’: AnalysisWhile it initially struggled following some of these events, Bitcoin produced solid returns on a 60-day basis. In the case of the 2020 election, these hit as high as 113%.“Through multiple shocks in recent years, bitcoin often outperformed both the S&P 500 and gold in the weeks and months following the onset of disruptions,” BlackRock commented.“This pattern has held true thus far in 2026 amid ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, with bitcoin delivering positive returns and outperforming equities and gold following the onset of hostilities in February and the end of the ceasefire agreement in July.”Macro asset returns comparison (screenshot). Source: BlackRockFurther data puts Bitcoin’s 12-month realized volatility at 40% compared to 26% for gold and 12% for the S&P 500. The rolling six-month correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P, presented as a 10-year average, is now 0.18 — still notably higher than gold’s 0.06 reading.“Bitcoin’s underlying investment case aligns more closely with that of gold — as a global monetary alternative and a hedge against inflation, global disorder, and declining trust in fiat currencies. Even for gold, which tends to be viewed as a standard uncorrelated, store-of-value asset, brief periods of high equity correlation exist, including COVID in 2020-2021 and the monetary easing cycle in 2023,” the report added.Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 correlation data (screenshot). Source: BlackRockSince October 2025, BTC price performance has led some to question its role as a form of “digital gold.” In a Q1 report, asset manager Grayscale described short-term behavior as being more like a growth stock than gold, noting its low correlation to the latter.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit $65,000 after Tuesday’s Wall Street open as US stocks rebounded in spite of geopolitical pressure.Key points:Bitcoin reaches $65,000 for the first time since Aug. 10 as risk assets navigate fresh US-Iran signals.Analysis warns of surging US 30-year bond yields, which hit 29-year highs of 5.34%.BTC price analysis flags decision time on a head-and-shoulders bottoming structure.Bitcoin diverges from US stocks as Trump says Strait of Hormuz “open”Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD building on the week’s gains as the S&P 500 bounced from 7,696, its lowest level since Aug. 4.BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThis came after US president Donald Trump posted a map of the closed Strait of Hormuz oil route to Truth Social where it was labeled “new US territory.”Both the US and Iran lay claim to control of Hormuz, with Trump threatening US ally Oman with military action over its plans to work with Iran on charging tolls to shipping traffic. In a subsequent post, Trump confirmed that further diplomacy with Iran was not on the agenda.“There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated,” he wrote.S&P 500 one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAs on Monday, oil avoided major volatility, with WTI crude down 1% at the time of writing at $84 per barrel. US government bonds continued to show strain, with the 30-year yield hitting 5.34%, its highest since January 2007.“Bond prices are sending warnings,” BNY Mellon analyst Geoff Yu wrote in a research note quoted by the New York Times. Yu said that the surge came as “investors demand more compensation for inflation risk,” while also attributing the upside to government borrowing. US 30-year bond yields one-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBTC price faces crunch rebound testUpdating X followers on BTC/USD, trader and analyst Aksel Kibar eyed the culmination of a potential reverse head-and-shoulders pattern at $62,300. Related: Bitcoin price spike to $64.5K was ‘low-volume liquidity trap’: Analysis“If $BTCUSD is going to rebound, it has to come from here,” he argued on Monday.Kibar offered a $53,000 target in the event of the head-and-shoulders structure failing, with $76,000 a potential upside target should the rebound sustain. BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Aksel Kibar on X.comPreviously, Cointelegraph reported that underwater investors were contributing to Bitcoin’s inability to break higher. Its rebound to $64,500 also stopped short of an overhead trend line, the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA). This moving average is now in place as resistance at $65,827.

Bitcoin (BTC) short liquidations hit their highest in almost one month as it hit $64,500 on Monday, new data reveals.Key points:Bitcoin passed $64,000 thanks to a short squeeze on derivatives markets, CryptoQuant says.An ongoing downward funding-rate reset from 0.006% to 0.003% over 24 hours could mean further short squeezes.The absence of spot demand raises doubts whether the upside is sustainable after a week of $267.2 million in net ETF outflows.Bitcoin short liquidations near one-month high BTC/USD rallied after Sunday’s weekly close, gaining up to 3% on Monday to top out at one-week highs of $64,550 on Bitstamp. BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewExamining the impetus behind the latest BTC price gains, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant pointed to illiquid markets and funding-rate imbalances among exchanges.Before rebounding on Monday, BTC circled near $62,750. Around this level, funding rates between exchanges began to diverge. Shorts were dominant on major platforms such as Binance, Bybit, OKX and Deribit, while the funding rate on HTX briefly spiked to 0.05%.Funding rates refer to periodic payments exchanged by long and short traders on Bitcoin derivatives markets in order to maintain their positions. Positive aggregate funding rates show that long traders are actively paying shorts, with the reverse true for negative funding rates.“This crowded short positioning served as the primary catalyst, fueling a short squeeze that drove prices higher,” CryptoQuant continued.BTC/USD one-hour chart with exchange funding-rate data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantData puts total Bitcoin short liquidations at 637 BTC for Monday, the largest single-day tally since July 21.Describing the event as a “low-volume liquidity trap,” CryptoQuant nonetheless suggested that the market could see more short squeezes next, with funding rates already declining again as traders increase short exposure.Bitcoin short liquidations. Source: CryptoQuantCrucial spot demand remains absentPreviously, Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin futures markets accounted for the majority of trading volume in the current range, with spot traders broadly uninterested. Related: BTC price loses 200-week trend line as 2022 repeats: Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekIn further analysis on Monday, CryptoQuant called the lack of spot demand the primary hurdle to sustained upside, alongside the lack of inflows to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).“A break below $60K alongside rising exchange inflows would weaken the structure and increase downside risk toward $50K. Selling pressure is cooling, but demand still needs to return,” it commented.Recent buyers who remain underwater on their BTC allocation have helped cement the current trading range. Short-term holders — wallets holding a UTXO for less than 155 days — have their cost basis at around $68,700, reinforcing that level as resistance.

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to $64,000 after Monday’s Wall Street open as US stocks gave way to gold.Key points:Bitcoin continues a rebound from Sunday’s weekly close, gaining 2% on Monday.Oil stays steady after US president Donald Trump threatens to bomb Oman over the Strait of Hormuz.Bitcoin funding rates hit 20-month highs of 0.022 last week, data reveals. Bitcoin inches up as US-Iran rhetoric spreads to OmanData from TradingView showed BTC/USD up by more than 2% on the day, rebounding from Sunday’s weekly close. BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewUS equities turned lower as an agreed 60-day ceasefire between the US and Iran was set to expire, with the S&P 500 index down 0.5% from Thursday’s all-time highs. S&P 500 one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewSpeaking to Fox News, Trump threatened Oman with military action amid an ongoing dispute over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz oil route.“If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the s*** out of them,” he told the network.Oil markets appeared unfazed by the tensions, with WTI crude flat at $82.35 per barrel at the time of writing.Safe haven gold was more volatile, gaining just over 1% to start the week to reach a daily high of $4,427 per ounce. Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on a combination of retail and government interest fueling gold’s multiweek highs.XAU/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewData from investment research platform Bytetree tracking the 30-day change in inflows to gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) put the figure at nearly $12 billion through Aug. 13.In a note on Monday quoted by Investing.com, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett wrote that long gold remained the trade, describing it as “still [sic] best hedge against dollar debasement, bond collapse, asset inflation, capitalist populism vs socialist populism politics of 2020s.”Related: BTC price loses 200-week trend line as 2022 repeats: Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekFunding rates hit levels not seen since late 2024In its latest Market Color bulletin published on Monday, trading company QCP Capital noted Bitcoin’s continued ability to weather macro tailwinds without a major breakdown from its current range.“Rather than treating individual price levels as directional signals, the more useful observation is that BTC remains close to the lower end of its recent range. A sustained move outside that range would provide more information about market positioning than the relatively contained moves seen within it,” it wrote.Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on expectations that a return to $61,000 would trigger an unwinding of BTC long positions, adding to downside BTC price momentum.The latest data from CoinGlass showed liquidations remaining muted as BTC/USD returned toward $64,000, with 24-hour cross-crypto liquidations at $180 million.Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassIn a sign of long BTC becoming an increasingly crowded trade, derivatives market funding rates hit 20-month highs of 0.022 on Aug. 14, per data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.“The derivatives market sentiment is positive within the current BTC price range, indicating that most traders are taking long positions,” it commented on the readings.CryptoQuant previously noted that futures trading volume on Binance was outweighing spot markets by almost eight times.Bitcoin funding rates chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin (BTC) is starting the new week at around $63,000, but bear-market history continues to repeat with weekly close below a key long-term trend line.Key points:Bitcoin has been trading in a range between $57,700 and $67,300, but last week’s close came with a drop below the key 200-week moving average at $64,216.Markets are pricing in near-70% odds of a hold by the Federal Reserve in September, as July meeting minutes are due this week.Japan Q2 GDP figures fall short of expectations at 1.1% as analysis warns of “global tightening” that could impact Bitcoin and risk assets. Bitcoin sees weekly close below 200-week moving averageBitcoin price action enjoyed a modest rebound after Sunday’s weekly close, seeing local highs of $63,655 on Bitstamp.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewData from TradingView shows BTC/USD continuing to tread water as the week begins, failing to challenge either side of a narrow trading range.Analyst Benjamin Cowen, however, drew attention to the fact that BTC/USD is now back below its 200-week simple moving average (SMA). As Cointelegraph reported, this moving average was a defining feature in the 2022 bear market, when it turned resistance in August before BTC entered its long-term bottoming phase.“What is interesting is how in both summer 2022/2026, Bitcoin capitulated below the 200W SMA, then bounced, then gave it up in mid-August,” he wrote in a post on X.BTC/USD one-week chart with 200 SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCommenting, trader and analyst Rekt Capital added that price had failed to reach his own weekly-close target of $63,220, thus positioning for further downside in future.“A rejection from $63,220 would fully confirm the breakdown and send price lower within the current ~$58,000-$66,000 Range (blue-blue)” he told X followers alongside an explanatory chart.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.comFed minutes due amid policy dissentFriday sees the release of preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing and services sectors. The data has recently been in an uptrend diverging from relatively weak employment figures, which have seen several months of downward revisions. Last week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases, meanwhile, painted a softer-than-expected picture of US inflation trends.  This sparked a rethink on future interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows near-70% odds that the Fed will hold rates at their current 3.50-3.75% range, compared with 42% odds a month ago.Fed target-rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group“A pair of reports showing moderating inflation is helping keep the outlook for monetary policy from turning too hawkish,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company summarized in analysis released on Sunday.Mosaic noted that while CPI came in at 3.4% year-on-year, this was still far above the Fed’s 2% target — a goal that chair Kevin Warsh continues to state will be achieved. On Wednesday, the Fed will publish the minutes of its July meeting.  Rate hikes were paused in the prior meeting with the largest split among officials over the move since 1970.Last week, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank president Beth Hammack, who was one of three dissenting voices calling for a 0.25% rate hike in July, questioned whether public patience would tolerate it if the return to 2% rates took several years.“Maybe we’d get there, but if it takes another three to four years to get there, is that OK? Is that enough?” she said at an event with the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce in Kettering, Ohio, quoted by Bloomberg.Japan on the radar as GDP disappointsJapan’s central bank is on the radar for risk-asset traders this week after Q2 GDP figures significantly missed expectations. Quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year GDP increased 0.3% and 1.1%, respectively — below the anticipated 0.5% and 2.0%.The timing of the print comes as markets see the Bank of Japan (BoJ) hiking rates from current 1.0% levels in September amid surging bond yields and continued weakening in the yen. Previously, Cointelegraph reported on a rare joint intervention in yen currency markets by Japan and the US after JPY/USD weakened to new 40-year lows.BoJ interest-rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: RateProbabilityThe GDP print, meanwhile, included the first drop in private consumption in eight quarters, signaling that existing stimulus measures were failing to prop up consumer confidence.“The boost to consumption from policy measures is already fading, and inflation will increase in H2 as firms will pass on increased costs, deteriorating consumers’ purchasing power,” Norihiro Yamaguchi, lead Japan economist at Oxford Economics, told CNBC.The yen avoided major volatility on the back of the GDP data, lingering near 159 per dollar on Monday.USD/JPY four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewResponding to the aftermath, Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, noted potential implications for risk assets to come. Japan’s 10-year bond yield hit 2.93% on Monday, its highest levels since 1996.“For now, this is not a signal to sell risk assets. But the market is approaching an important point: JGB > 3% + further BOJ rate hikes + a stronger yen + rising US Treasury yields,” he wrote in an X post. “If these factors align, Japan’s rate normalization could turn into a global tightening of financial conditions and hit stocks and Bitcoin.”Japan 10-year bond yields one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBitcoin forgotten as consumer sentiment lows contrast with stocks gainsRising stocks paired with record-low consumer sentiment are flashing a new warning sign for Bitcoin, which is increasingly being overlooked.In the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain, crypto analytics platform Glassnode revealed a striking divergence between Bitcoin and equities in terms of sentiment.“Consumer Confidence remains among the weakest readings of the past decade even after two consecutive improvements, while the US Stock Market Index set a fresh all-time high on August 7 and holds just beneath it,” it summarized.The softer US inflation prints helped send the S&P 500 to all-time highs of 7,816 on Thursday. At the same time, the consumer sentiment survey by the University of Michigan is expected to drop 7.6% in August.“Weak sentiment next to record prices looks like a contradiction until the driver is named: households that expect living costs to rise and the economy to soften are moving out of cash and into assets. The equity market, carried above all by the AI trade, is where that capital lands,” Glassnode commented.US consumer sentiment data. Source: University of MichiganBitcoin continues to be left out of this capital rotation. A sign of change, Glassnode argued, would be a sustained rebound in institutional inflows to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).Last week, these saw net outflows of $267.2 million, per data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors. Just one out of five trading days finished with net inflows, totaling a mere $7.8 million.US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside InvestorsExchange BTC reserves grow with whale inflows in focusBitcoin supply dynamics are the latest troubling feature for its price trajectory, CryptoQuant analysis reports.Related: Here’s what happened in crypto todayWhales have started to dominate exchange inflows, exacerbating an existing absence of retail interest and causing exchange BTC reserves to reverse higher. Binance’s whale ratio reached 0.71 on Aug. 10, its highest since early March. “Exchange deposits do not necessarily mean immediate selling, but they increase the amount of BTC available for trading or hedging,” CryptoQuant commented.Binance exchange whale ratio. Source: CryptoQuantBinance’s BTC reserves totaled 674,332 BTC on Sunday, up 2.57% month-to-date and at their highest since November 2025.“The long-running trend of BTC leaving exchanges may therefore be weakening,” CryptoQuant continued.Binance BTC reserves. Source: CryptoQuantAs Cointelegraph reported, exchange activity has been driven by derivatives markets as BTC/USD trades in a tight range since early June. On Binance, futures trading volume was eight times that of spot markets in early August.