Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin could 'consolidate until 2022' after mass wipeout sends BTC price to $41K

Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $47,000 on Dec. 4 after a sudden crash confirmed bulls’ worst nightmares with 22% daily losses.BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewCrypto liquidations pass $2.5 billionData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting local lows of $41,960 on Bitstamp — its lowest since Sep. 30.As panic set in, leveraged positions unwound and traders capitulated, 24-hour cross-crypto liquidations passing $2.5 billion.Crypto liquidations chart. Source: Coinglass”$50k is likely to be resistance for a decent amount of time now unless stonks to incredible things,” filbfilb, co-founder of trading platform Decentrader, summarized in a fresh synopsis after the move. “Size of dump & distribution likely to mean consolidation into Q1 next year. Moon mission is not dead but some will think cycle over.”The scale of the dip wiped out some important support levels, including Bitcoin’s $1 trillion asset valuation — previously a popular choice for long bets.As Cointelegraph reported, concern over traders’ behavior was present as recently as Friday, as data showed that the market could easily be overleveraged at previous levels nearer $60,000.With that leverage now all but flushed out, optimism among familiar faces remained, with Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe announcing the sub-$42,000 spike as a “bottom.””We’re still in a bull market,” he added.Bitcoin meanwhile just avoided an attack on $40,000 support, something which would be a reason to “flip bearish” should it form weekly resistance, analyst TechDev said.”Wait. Relax. Market will reveal,” he told Twitter followers. “If cycle bull phase deviates substantially from history, expect any bear phase to do the same.”Close week below 20W SMA (50.8) ➡️ ConcerningMacro LL on a weekly close (40K) ➡️ Flip bearishLose the 2W RSI Floor ➡️ Flip bearishWait. Relax. Market will reveal.If cycle bull phase deviates substantially from history, expect any bear phase to do the same. https://t.co/6smUaIWlKY— TechDev (@TechDev_52) December 4, 2021Ethereum preserves strength on BTC pairA small silver lining came from Ether (ETH) on the day, which neared a rematch of its highest levels since mid 2018. Related: Ethereum ‘about to go parabolic’ against Bitcoin as analysts weigh BTC bear caseLosing less than Bitcoin in the crash versus the dollar, ETH/BTC bucked the trend to pass 0.0831.ETH/BTC 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewAll of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap were down over 10% against the U.S. dollar, however, led by Polkadot (DOT) with 21%.

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Ethereum 'about to go parabolic' against Bitcoin as analysts weigh BTC bear case

Ethereum’s Ether token (ETH) is due to launch a “parabolic” attack on BTC to beat all-time highs, one analyst believes.2-week predicts “crazy” ETH moveETH/BTC 1-month candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows ETH/BTC sitting near three-year highs — but its next move should be even stronger.Ethereum against Bitcoin is one of the few bullish narratives in the short-term crypto markets this month.In a tweet on Dec. 3, popular Twitter account Galaxy reinforced optimistic predictions for the largest altcoin, even suggesting that ETH/BTC is about to eclipse its already strong performance with a vertical move.”I’ve been waiting and publicly charting ETH/BTC on the big picture for years, and now we are finally here,” he told followers alongside a predictive chart. “$ETH is about to start going into parabolic mode. Just wait and see how crazy things are about to get.”ETH/BTC 2-week annotated candle chart (Binance). Source: Galaxy/ TwitterETH/BTC reached 0.085 this week, its highest since a brief spike in May this year. Beyond that, only 2018 stands in the way of new all-time highs, that year nonetheless seeing a significantly higher ceiling of up to 0.15 on some exchanges.In USD terms, the picture is similarly promising, Ethereum having set repeated new records in early November and staying broadly within 20% of $5,000 since.”This in theory should be the part where if strength continues we see that strong run based on structure,” fellow trader Pentoshi tweeted as part of separate comments on Ethereum Friday.While not everything points to the $5,000 level falling, ETH/USD traded at around $4,550 at the time of writing.ETH/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin old hands tweak bull caseFor Bitcoin, meanwhile, the mood remains conservative.Related: Victory is for the taking in Friday’s $950M Bitcoin options expiryAfter several weeks of underwhelming price performance, analysts are beginning to give more credence to “bearish” theses, while ostensibly remaining bullish on BTC.Bull case:- OC supply dynamics: illiquid supply, LTH supply, HODL waves, etc.- OC oscillators never reached exuberance/reset over summer – Summer included OC behaviors that resemble bear market- Funds have fresh PnLs in January, hunger to take on risk- Macro uncertainty— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) December 2, 2021As Cointelegraph reported, on-chain metrics likewise present little cause for concern, yet small cues, such as long-term holder selling activity, point to decreased conviction.Sentiment, having risen to “neutral” territory this week, is now back in the “fear” zone, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index measuring 31/100.Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me

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Bitcoin sees first downward difficulty move in 5 months amid 'uncertainty' over hodler spending

Bitcoin (BTC) is in a tight battle between bulls and bears and the network is now reacting, data shows.Trackers reveal that this week, Bitcoin difficulty snapped an 18-week green streak to post its first decrease since July.Difficulty adjusts to 20% BTC price dip Amid cyclical short-term price action, concern remains that Bitcoin is not done retracing from its latest $69,000 all-time highs.Having surprised analysts and even rejected one lifelong price model, BTC/USD over the past month feels like uncharted territory — despite roughly doubling year to date.“With Bitcoin now over 20% below the all-time-high, headlines in traditional media have declared that Bitcoin has entered a bear market,” on-chain analytics firm Glassnode summarized in its latest weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain.”“However, it may surprise some readers that this current market correction is actually the least severe in 2021. Some might even say business as usual for a Bitcoin HODLer.”Nonetheless, network fundamentals are now taking the latest dip into account. On Dec. 28, difficulty fell 1.5% — after rising continually for nine straight periods. The next adjustment is currently slated to produce a further decrease of nearly 2%.Bitcoin difficulty 7-day average chart. Source: BlockchainLong-term holder spending sparks “uncertainty”Surveying the landscape, Glassnode did not rule out further price declines. Related: Bitcoin tests traders’ nerves as analyst reissues $400K BTC price forecastA combination of long-term holder selling, high open interest on derivatives markets and other phenomena could spark a continuation of the downtrend to new local lows.“Open interest leverage in options and futures at or near ATHs, which is cause for some concern regarding heightened “flush out” potential. Funding rates suggest an only slightly positive bias, making both a long- or short-squeeze plausible scenarios,” it concluded.Regarding LTH behavior, it added:“Long-Term Holders have distributed 5.8% of the supply accumulated since March and some uncertainty exists based on their spending patterns.”Long-term holder spent price annotated chart. Source: GlassnodeDiscussing open interest, meanwhile, analyst Willy Woo noted that in a post-exchange-traded fund (ETF) environment, activity may just remain higher and not necessarily signal turbulence on the horizon.“IMO it doesn’t necessarily need to be flushed,” he tweeted. “It could be a sign of the time with and uptake of the cash and carry trade post futures ETFs.”BTC/USD circled $56,000 at the time of writing on Dec. 2 after spending the past 24 hours repeating a run to $59,000 and subsequent rejection.

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Bitcoin tests traders’ nerves as analyst reissues $400K BTC price forecast

Bitcoin (BTC) was on repeat on Dec. 2 as markets watched another attack on $60,000 end in defeat.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView“Nothing has changed”Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD back at $57,000 Thursday, having come full circle in 24 hours.The pair had briefly hit $59,000 into the Wall Street open the day prior, this failing to hold as another round of macro triggers skewed sentiment to the downside once more.Bitcoin thus fell in line with stocks reacting, it seemed, to continued concern over the new coronavirus omicron variant. The S&P 500 ended the day down 1.2%.With a sense of frustration pervading crypto markets, analysts took the opportunity to reassert a longer-range perspective.“It’s very simple. Below $60K I’ve remained cautious/bearish as I’d like to see that area flip,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized. “Levels to watch for buys; $53K-54K zone and $47-50K zones for Bitcoin. When to buy altcoins? December. Nothing has changed past weeks.”Those buy target lows were accompanied by renewed predictions for this cycle’s bullish peak, which, as in April this year, place BTC/USD at up to $400,000.Reminder, peak high bull cycle prediction; #Bitcoin to $350,000-450,000#Ethereum to $10,000-17,500#Polkadot to $250-350#Chainlink to $250-350#Cardano to $10-20#Zilliqa to $5-7#Elrond to $1.500-1.750 (already hit – > revised now)#DIA to $50-75Some might be conservative. https://t.co/rgZOEyljC0— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) December 1, 2021Fellow analyst TechDev, eyeing Fibonacci levels on the two-week chart, also described Thursday as “another day to zoom out.”Open interest stays near all-time highsOn exchanges, open interest, meanwhile, remained a source of concern due to its sheer volume relative to price action.Related: Bitcoin fails ‘worst-case scenario’ monthly close for the first time, starts December sub-$57KData from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode showed open interest on Bitcoin futures recently matching its second-highest levels in history, nearing its April record.“At some point, this open interest is going to get flushed out one direction or the other,” analyst William Clemente commented.Bitcoin futures open interest 7-day moving average chart. Source: William Clemente/TwitterWith cyclical price action characterizing the week, the mood thus stayed favoring an ultimate exit up or down, with derivatives structures being “reset” as a result. Funding rates were mostly neutral across exchanges Thursday.

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