Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) whipsawed around $64,000 on Wednesday as geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions pressured US stocks.Key points:Bitcoin constricts near $64,000 as traders contend with multiple macro headwinds.Downside in Asian stocks continues to spill over into US markets.The US Federal Reserve prepares to release its next interest-rate decision, a potential risk-asset volatility catalyst.Risk-asset hurdles pile up ahead of FOMC meetingData from TradingView showed BTC/USD halting a local rebound at the Wall Street open, having hit 11-day lows of $62,700 the day prior.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThese came as part of a risk-asset rout by a selloff in Asian chip-stocks. This trend continued on Wednesday as markets showed increasing concern over the debt obligations by semiconductor and AI giants.Renewed nerves over escalation in the US-Iran war added to the headwinds, with US President Donald Trump threatening a “beating” as tit-for-tat strikes continued.“We’ll be hitting them hard. They’re going to get a beating,” he said in an interview with Fox News.Oil prices snapped higher as a result, with WTI and Brent crude up 7.6% and 5.4%, respectively. Oil-price hikes could significantly impact trends in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with inflation concerns having a knock-on effect on interest-rate expectations.CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewMarkets are awaiting the result of the Federal Reserve’s latest decision on the federal funds rate. The July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will include a statement and press conference by Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. Though Warsh has given less guidance than his predecessor, traders will watch for cues to future policy shifts.Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted split opinions as to the Fed’s move on rates. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed 66.3% odds of current levels of 3.5%-3.75% remaining in place, with a 0.25% hike attracting 33.7%.“Market expectations for tomorrow’s Fed decision are among the most divided in recent history,” it wrote.Fed target-rate expectations for July 29 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupBitcoin price caught between daily moving averagesAhead of fresh macro catalysts, BTC price action acted broadly within a range bounded by its 50-day simple (SMA) and exponential (EMA) moving averages.Related: Markets eye Bank of Japan meeting on Friday as yen repeats 40-year US dollar lowsBTC/USD four-hour chart with 21-day, 50-day EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThis range had begun in mid-July, with failed breakouts taking advantage of liquidity zones on either side.The latest data from CoinGlass showed potential liquidations building on either side of the current range, with clusters at $63,500 and $64,900.BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlassTrading volumes, however, remained conspicuously low, with spot-market volume at its lowest levels since July 2023.“CME open interest remains near multi-year lows, perpetual futures open interest has stalled around 300,000 BTC, and average daily spot volume came in at just $2.2 billion for the month,” crypto analytics company K33 Research added in a bulletin on Tuesday. Retail investor interest in both Bitcoin and the broader crypto market has been in decline since the latter’s October 2025 all-time highs. AI stocks have formed a major destination for the investor pivot.

Bitcoin (BTC) hit ten-day lows at Tuesday’s Wall Street open as BTC price action followed a US stocks sell-off.Key points:Bitcoin price action reacts to contagion from an Asia stocks sell-off as it hits US markets.Chip makers are at the epicenter of the reversal with South Korea’s KOSPI Index closing the day down 10.8%Crypto long liquidations pass $500 million in 24 hours.Semiconductor giants fuel major Asia stock comedownSemiconductor-led losses from Asia spilled over into US trading. South Korea’s KOSPI Index finished the day down 10.8% in a single session, fueled by 14.8% losses for chip-maker SK Hynix, while Japan’s memory manufacturer Kioxia Holdings fell 18.3% on the day.In the US, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index was down just over 1% at the time of writing. Notably, semiconductor manufacturer Micron Technologies, which fell by more than 10% at the open, erased a rebound and saw its lowest levels since May 22.Micron Technologies one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewSemiconductor stocks are contending with intensifying scrutiny over the sustainability of hyperscaler capital expenditure. Investors increasingly question whether the underlying economics of AI infrastructure buildouts can justify their scale. Combined 2026 capex guidance from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta is now tracking toward $725–730 billion, with Wall Street projecting that figure could climb toward $900 billion in 2027. Alphabet posted its first cash burn on record in the second quarter, at $5.9 billion, even as its cloud unit posted 82% growth.Layered on top of the financing concerns are competitive pressures on US-based AI companies from Chinese startups. Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 open source model, first launched two weeks ago, was benchmarked competitively against top proprietary systems from Anthropic and OpenAI. This has intensified questions about the return profile assumed by the spending commitments of Western hyperscalers, given their capabilities may be replicated at a fraction of the cost.Crypto short liquidations pass $500 millionToday’s sell-off in the semiconductor and AI sector has not left Bitcoin unscathed. Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping below $63,000 for the first time since July 17.BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCrypto markets saw elevated long liquidations on the back of the day’s reversal, with data from CoinGlass putting these in excess of $510 million over 24 hours.Related: Markets eye Bank of Japan meeting on Friday as yen repeats 40-year US dollar lowsCryptocurrency liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassOn Monday, crypto analytics platform CoinAnk warned of the risk of a long liquidation “cascade” below $64,700.“Extremely large long liquidity has accumulated below this level,” it commented.CoinAnk added that to the upside, little resistance remained, with the area between $65,800 and $66,200 being a “major short liquidation zone.”

Japan’s central bank is in focus this week as its next interest-rate meeting comes amid new 40-year yen lows against the US dollar.Key points: The Japanese yen is approaching new 40-year lows against the US dollar, nearly beating its latest record from last week.The Bank of Japan will decide on interest-rate changes on July 31, with rates already at 1%, their highest since September 1995.Analysts have been warning that the yen carry trade could unwind again, repeating a major crypto headwind from 2024.Dollar-yen seeks to reclaim 40-year recordData from TradingView showed USD/JPY approaching 164 on Tuesday, just a fraction below new 40-year highs seen last week.USD/JPY 12-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe yen’s status as a funding currency is making BoJ monetary policy have an outsized influence on global markets. Japan’s currency markets are characterized by minimal capital controls and unmatched liquidity among non-dollar currencies. Japan’s persistent current account and trade surpluses in earlier decades along with systemically low interest rates have made JPY the most important global funding currency. However, since Japanese inflation picked up in 2022, this has created the risk of carry trade unwinds accompanied by a liquidity crunch. On Thursday and Friday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will decide on whether to adjust its benchmark rate, which at 1.0% is currently at its highest since 1995.Markets expect rates to stay the same, with market-implied probabilities of a rate hold at 98%, given that policymakers enacted their latest raise in June. Prediction service Polymarket puts the odds of no change at 99% as of Tuesday.At the time, however, the BoJ suggested that fresh hikes would come later. In a summary from the June meeting, it referenced inflationary trends in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), coupled with historically low rates in place for the past three decades, as grounds for the change.“As for the future conduct of monetary policy, given that underlying CPI inflation has been approaching 2% and financial conditions have been accommodative, it is appropriate for the Bank to continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation, in response to developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions,” BoJ said.Since then, a concurrent headwind, the weakening of the yen, has gathered pace, staying above the key 160 level against the dollar despite a dip following the June rate hike.The BoJ previously noted the potential for a weaker yen to weigh on CPI growth, constricting consumer spending power.“Attention should also be paid to the point that, with firms’ behavior shifting more toward raising wages and prices recently, exchange rate developments are, compared to the past, more likely to affect prices, and that such moves could affect underlying CPI inflation through changes in inflation expectations,” its Outlook for Economic And Prices document, issued after its April meeting, read.Yen carry trade unwind risks global spreadFor crypto traders, developments in the yen are of key importance.  The yen carry trade, which can act as a liquidity source for crypto markets, is heavily influenced by BoJ moves to stabilize the yen’s exchange rate against the dollar. As Cointelegraph reported, interventions in August 2024 sparked a snap “unwinding” of the carry trade, with an immediate detrimental impact on Bitcoin and altcoins.Related: Rate path still divides investors: Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekNow, with USD/JPY building on new 40-year highs, concerns of a repeat are growing.“That trade only works if two conditions remain intact. Japanese interest rates remain exceptionally low. The yen remains broadly stable or continues depreciating,” analyst Ricky Ho wrote in his latest X commentary on Monday.Ho said that carry-trade unwinds are “rarely gradual” thanks to high amounts of leverage deployed by participants. He warned that any changes in BoJ policy could thus have wider-reaching consequences for a global economy already accustomed to the Japanese economic status quo.“Ultimately, we think investors remain too focused on whether the BOJ hikes in September, October or December. The more important issue is that the direction of policy has fundamentally changed,” Ho said.

Bitcoin (BTC) sought to build on local highs at Monday’s Wall Street open as US stocks opened in the green.Key points:Bitcoin approached new local highs with the start of the week’s first US trading session.Stocks also opened higher amid relief over a hiatus in the US-Iran war and potential progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.BTC price action defended two daily moving averages on Sunday’s weekly close.Bitcoin follows stocks higher as Iran news offers risk-asset tailwindData from TradingView showed BTC/USD spiking to near $66,000 as markets reacted to a pause in strikes between the US and Iran. BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAdditional reports cited an Iranian foreign ministry spokesman announcing that Tehran and Oman were “trying to establish mechanisms regarding maritime traffic” through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route currently closed.US WTI crude oil fell toward $82 per barrel on Monday before a modest rebound. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index were both up by around 0.3% at the time of writing.CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAcknowledging a potential stumbling block in the form of higher US bond yields, trading company QCP Capital voiced that they were anticipating tailwinds for the crypto market going forward. “Digital assets have generally outperformed equities in July despite a more challenging macro backdrop,” the firm wrote in its latest Market Color analysis. “BTC and ETH are up approximately 11.6% and 24.6% month-to-date, respectively, even as higher Treasury yields and periodic risk-off sentiment have weighed on broader markets.”QCP referenced developments around the CLARITY Act, a key piece of proposed crypto legislation still under consideration.“Market attention also remains on developments surrounding the proposed CLARITY Act, which continues to be closely followed by digital asset participants given its potential implications for the US regulatory framework,” it continued.BTC price support holds but remains fragileAmong Bitcoin traders, caution mixed with quiet optimism over BTC price action on shorter time frames.Related: Rate path still divides investors: Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekCrypto trader and analyst Michaël Van de Poppe highlighted that BTC was holding the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) as support. These stood at $64,289 and $63,261, respectively.“This is a strong signal for the markets to be betting on the long side of this asset, however, it’s still a little fragile,” he wrote in ongoing updates on X. “I’d much prefer to see a strong move to $66,000-67,000 over the next 1-3 days to see a continuous bid coming in.”BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël Van de Poppe on X.comData from CoinGlass showed crypto short liquidations spiking as the market rose, with these nearing $250 million over a 24-hour period.BTC/USD vs. crypto liquidations (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Bitcoin (BTC) heads into the end of July juggling volatility catalysts as the Federal Reserve reacts to US inflation.Key points:The Fed will deliver its latest decision on interest rates as US bond yields spike, with markets seeing a September hike as likely. June PCE inflation is due on Thursday after hitting a three-year high of 4.1% last monthSigns of a shift in the equities uptrend places the focus on Bitcoin’s macro correlation.Whales exchange inflows cool by 44% since June Markets remain split on rate outlookAttention turns once more to the US Federal Reserve this week, with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), chaired by Kevin Warsh, set to announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, July 29.A combination of geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation pressures has reshaped expectations for Fed policy and put the possibility of further rate hikes back on the table as the US 2-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.3% last week. The latest data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently sees a 31% chance of a hike this week, with a hike at the September meeting having odds as high as 50%.Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME GroupThese rate hike expectations were tempered slightly as oil prices dropped 8% in the early hours of Monday as the US and Iran paused strikes. Rate hike odds therefore shifted from 37.4% to 33.7%. Ongoing developments in the Middle East thus continue to introduce volatility into the macroeconomic outlook, even as PPI inflation data released earlier in the month came in below expectations.Fed target rate probability comparison for July FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupCommenting, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company also noted a pending upward breakout in 30-year bonds. Although the long end of the bond curve now plays a diminished role in funding the US government, this could notionally add to pressure on Warsh as he shapes his language at the post-FOMC press conference.“The 30-year Treasury yield is also testing a key breakout level once again. In May, the 30-year yield saw a false break above the 5% level which has served as resistance since late 2023,” it summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic.US 30-year bond-yield data. Source: Mosaic Asset CompanyEven before the latest turmoil, new Fed chair Warsh had steered clear of dovish language on the economy and kept his post-FOMC statement and press conference notably brief.“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy,” he said at the time.PCE inflation seen falling from three-year highBeyond the FOMC, markets will be watching the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index on Thursday for fresh signals over the impact of the US-Iran war on inflation trends. The June print of the index, currently sits at three-year highs.PCE volatility can have a snap impact on risk-asset performance as traders reprice potential Fed reactions. June’s release coincided with Bitcoin dropping to macro lows around $58,000.Prefacing its latest analysis, the International Monetary Economics Network (IMEN) predicted that PCE would be moderately lower compared to May’s 4.1% year-on-year tally. “U.S. inflation: We currently expect June PCE inflation to be 3.7% year‑over‑year,” it wrote on X. US PCE inflation data (screenshot). Source: Bureau of Economic AnalysisCorrelation between Bitcoin and equities remains absentOn higher timeframes, correlations between Bitcoin and major equity indices have largely disappeared. Data from TradingView currently puts the daily correlation between BTC/USD and the S&P 500 with a 20-week loopback window as practically absent, at its lowest levels since March. Against the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, meanwhile, its current correlation coefficient of 0.11 was last observed in mid-February. While correlations on the weekly timeframe move slowly, bearish geopolitical and macro events have the potential to make the two asset classes move in lockstep again. BTC/USD one-week chart with rolling 20-week stocks correlation. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewFor now, corporate earnings in the US have continued to surpass expectations. However, given the historically high valuations, this is unlikely to shield the market from potential pullbacks. Several major US tech stocks saw significant drawdowns last week. The Magnificent 7 falling by an aggregate 5.3% through Friday after $GOOGL and $TSLA had already suffered sell-offs earlier in the week.In spite of this, “Alphabet, $GOOGL , is the single largest margin contributor after significantly beating earnings estimates,” the Kobeissi Letter commented on the topic at the weekend. “Meanwhile, 86% of reporting S&P 500 firms have so far beaten EPS estimates, while 80% have exceeded revenue expectations. AI is driving historic earnings growth.”S&P 500 net profit-margin data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X.comMosaic Asset Company highlighted the risks that the rate environment may exert on US equities.  “Rising rates across the yield curve could keep pressuring stock prices, where indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq peaked in early June and are now losing key support levels. At the same time, market breadth is deteriorating while the backdrop for seasonality is transitioning from a bullish tailwind to bearish headwind. Seasonality during mid-term election years also tends to produce lower average returns and larger drawdowns.”With these emerging hurdles, the S&P 500 is at risk of losing its bullish setup altogether, Mosaic warns.“The S&P already lost one key support level with the 50-day moving average (MA – black line). If trendline support in the triangle gives way, that could set up a test of the 200-day MA (green line) that’s currently near the 7,000 level (or 5% downside from current levels),” it added alongside an explanatory chart.S&P 500 data. Source: Mosaic Asset CompanyOn shorter time frames, the picture remains fluid, with a pause in hostilities between the US and Iran providing a bullish impulse across risk assets. US WTI crude oil dropped as low as $83 per barrel to start the week, having previously eyed $95.“The market is beginning to price-in a peace deal again,” Kobeissi responded.CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView“Boring” BTC price range tests 50-month trend lineBitcoin went on to seal new local highs after Sunday’s weekly close, reaching $65,680 on Bitstamp. Still in a familiar range, BTC/USD battled its 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) trend line, having previously flipped it to resistance in a copycat move from the 2022 bear market.BTC/USD one-day chart with 50-month EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCommenting on the current market setup, trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged resurgent sell-side pressure.“The more seller-dominant the volume becomes while Bitcoin is at resistance, the greater the chances for a rejection from here,” he warned X followers on Sunday.Rekt Capital brought the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) into the equation, describing price as “sandwiched” between it and its 50-month counterpart.“Continued price compression here is unsustainable and will eventually force major volatility,” he forecast. “And if the seller volume keeps coming in at this rate, then there’ll likely be a breakout on seller volume to precede a rejection from this local resistance area.”BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.comBinance whale inflows nearly halve since mid-JuneCommenting on the FOMC meeting and its impact on crypto markets, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant sees a potential knock-on effect for sell-side pressure on major exchanges.Related: BTC supply in profit eyes 60%, but analysis hints recovery may ‘roll back over’According to their data, BTC inflows from whales to Binance, have dropped by up to 44% since June 12, while retail inflows fell 22%.“This leaves retail inflows at roughly twice the level of whale inflows, with a gap of $3.9 billion,” contributor Amr Taha wrote in a blog post on Monday. “The divergence suggests that the composition of BTC transfers into Binance has shifted: retail participants are currently significantly more active than whales in sending BTC to the exchange.”Bitcoin whale inflows to Binance (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantTaha described the FOMC meeting as a “major macro catalyst” that could reshape the approach of all investor cohorts to the market.“With retail inflows now running at 2x whale inflows, Wednesday’s Fed decision could provide an important test of whether the current divergence between the two BTC cohorts persists or begins to converge,” he concluded.As Cointelegraph reported, Binance saw single-day withdrawals of over 9,000 BTC last week.