Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) bears will probably be too “stoneless” to keep prices down much longer, fresh BTC price analysis argues.In a Twitter series published Dec. 18, popular account Light summarized the events which led to Bitcoin’s recent 39% correction.Sheep in bear’s clothingA combination of macro factors and smart action from big players left retail investors holding the bags in both Bitcoin and altcoins, Light explained.This was apparent before the comedown from $69,000 accelerated into December’s liquidation cascade — smart money knew that such levels were unsustainable, and reacted accordingly.”25% of derivatives OI was closed or liquidated. Billions upon billions lost. If people were cautious before, they were now properly risk averse,” the account wrote. “Those who did not take heed of the market’s message a month before, now began to panic in an accelerating fashion.”After bottoming and since remaining broadly below $50,000, however, there is fresh cause for optThose same early sellers are now beginning to look the other way, while BTC/USD is at solid support and appetite for Bitcoin is returning.”Whereas bulls have been cautious, bears have taken to aggression, pushing perpetuals basis negative on some venues and building OI, while the large players who derisked in the $60k area have reversed course and begun to absorb panic- and short-selling,” Light continued.”Funds are likely done (or close to it) with structural sell flows, are cashed-up, and will now consider frontrunning the other way, namely, incoming buy flows in January.”Despite narratives arguing otherwise, the future for Bitcoin bears, therefore, is likely not nearly as “exciting” as the start of the month.”It’s the bears that will likely turn out to be stoneless soon enough,” Light summarized.BTC/USD chart except showing trader position data. Source: Light/ TwitterWill altcoins spoil the party?Putting a potential spoke in the wheel are altcoins, these continuing to see distribution after considerable gains throughout 2021. Related: Happy ‘bearday,’ Bitcoin: It’s been 3 years since BTC bottomed at $3.1KFor the short term, however, Ether (ETH) continues to “carry the market,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe argued this week.Even here, however, the tide is turning as data shows Bitcoin dominance waning.”Many altcoins are down 80% since their peak high in May. They are also on higher timeframe support levels or approaching those,” Van de Poppe told Twitter followers. “The sentiment is ultra bearish all across the markets. I’m heavily buying. Are you?”Bitcoin market cap dominance 1- chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) may be flagging below $50,000, but its bull market is actually three years old this month.Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms that Bitcoin bulls have at least something to celebrate as 2021 draws to a close.Three years, 2,125% upsideDespite disappointing when it comes to end-of-year price expectations, BTC/USD remains an order of magnitude higher than where it was even 18 months ago.March 2020 marked a brief return to near cycle lows in what had otherwise been a solid bull market ever since December 2018. At that time, Bitcoin capitulated to lows of $3,100 — a level that was never seen, and likely never will be seen again.SAME DAY THREE YEARS AGO #Bitcoin  BOTTOMED OUT THE BEAR MARKET OF 2018— CRYPTO₿IRB (@crypto_birb) December 15, 2021It was Dec. 15, 2018 that Bitcoin ended an entire year of retracement from then all-time highs of near $20,000. Compared to this year’s $69,000 peak, BTC investors have thus had exposure to as much as 2,125% gains.Consolidation lasted for several months afterwards, with April 2019 the watershed moment as the market climbed towards the year’s high of $13,800.The anniversary of “peak bear” is timely, coming as analysts weigh the chances of consolidation and a slow grind upwards chraracterizing the end of this year and the beginning of the next.”Welcome to the chop season,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized.”The season where all the gains of day 1 are lost on day 2 and everything flip/flops within 24 hours, also the ideas of people on the markets.”As Cointelegraph reported, Sept. 15 formed another birthday for Bitcoin in the form of it spending an entire year above $10,000.BTC/USD 1-month candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewHoping for a “flush”While a return even to $20,000 is not on the cards for the majority of market participants, analysts are not discounting the idea that Bitcoin will dip considerably again in the short term.Related: Analyst lists 21 factors calling for Bitcoin price upside — But just 4 bearish signalsFor popular trader Pentoshi, this could take the form of another leverage cascade to “flush” excessive speculation from the market.Major support levels revolve around $40,000, a breach of which would put BTC/USD on course to challenge its dip from after May’s miner rout.Conversely, a “max pain” scenario would in fact be a run higher towards $60,000, fellow trader filbfilb argued this week.

Bitcoin (BTC) traders may be experiencing some “extreme panic,” but one analyst argues that practically all the technical metrics point to price upside.Speaking to Cointelegraph on Dec. 16, filbfilb, co-founder of trading platform Decentrader, listed more than 20 signs that bullish momentum should be next for Bitcoin.”Enough there” for Bitcoin upside breakoutBTC/USD gained with equities late Wednesday thanks to comments on policy from the United States Federal Reserve.Reaching $49,300, the pair then began to consolidate below the $49,000 mark, a point at which it remains at the time of writing.Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.meSentiment, however, has yet to show any faith in the short-term future of BTC price action, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at just 29/100 — something filbfilb believes is misplaced.”Basically looking at it, I think there is reason to think that there is enough there to think that we could break to the upside and I feel like no trading exposure doesn’t fit the analysis,” he summarized.An accompanying list of bullish triggers numbered 21 items, and included seller exhaustion, miner accumulation and a selection of on-chain metrics.In the bearish camp, by contrast, were just four — the lost 20-week moving average and 50 and 100-day moving averages, bear signals on the 3-day chart and a “horrible” weekly chart.BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) with 50, 100 and 140-day moving averages. Source: TradingViewStoch RSI lines up rare bottoming structureHis comments chime with those of others in the space, with popular Twitter account TechDev highlighting several other factors to support an imminent price uptick.Related: Bitcoin sheds ‘dumb money’ as retail buys most BTC since March 2020 crash#BTC 3-day hidden bull div getting ready to play out in my opinion with RSI just over 40, an imminent stoch RSI cross, all following a prior bear div-marked local distribution top. pic.twitter.com/warqTBc27d— TechDev (@TechDev_52) December 15, 2021One of them, the stochastic relative strength index (stoch RSI), has been proven to act as a bull flag at local bottoms throughout Bitcoin’s history.For Jeff Ross, founder and managing director of Vailshire Capital Management, stoch RSI is now the chart to watch.What I’m watching…Check out the last four stochastic RSI (14) bottoms since late 2019 on the weekly #bitcoin chart.We are at or near #5.Shoot your shot. pic.twitter.com/l96rASOWXq— Dr. Jeff Ross (Pleb counselor) (@VailshireCap) December 14, 2021

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed by over $2,000 on Dec. 15 as markets quickly reacted to news that the United States Federal Reserve would raise interest rates and curtail its bond-buying program starting in 2022.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView”Kind of what we were thinking”Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $49,310 on Bitstamp, its highest since Dec. 12,  when the price briefly popped above the $50,000 mark.The momentum came after the Fed hinted that it could raise its benchmark rate three times next year, surpassing investor expectations. It would also increase the pace of its asset purchasing taper, the central bank said.Concerns previously focused on such plans having a negative impact on both traditional and crypto markets, thanks to drying up of the “easy” availability of liquidity. In the event, however, it seemed that the information lay uncertainty over the policy to rest.”From an equity perspective, now they just have to focus on earnings, margins and growth,” CNBC quoted Jim Caron, a senior portfolio manager and chief strategist on the global fixed Income team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management as saying. “It’s kind of a sigh of relief to the equities market who thought it might be much more aggressive. It’s kind of what we were thinking anyway.”With that, the S&P 500 added modest gains, while altcoins joined Bitcoin in inching up just under 5%. At the time of writing, BTC/USD was consolidating at around $49,000. BREAKING: FED keeps its interest rate at 0-0.25% as it is committed to employing the full range of instruments available to help the US economy.Which means.The bull market continues for #Bitcoin.— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) December 15, 2021Popular analysts remained cautious. While Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe maintained that the BTC bottom was hit on Dec. 4, William Clemente opted to hold off on advising a market entry at current prices.”My gut has been telling me to buy BTC, but sticking to my plan to be a buyer at $53K confirmation. Must follow plan,” he told Twitter followers.An exit from the most recent range for December would be marked by $53,000, which would also return Bitcoin to a $1 trillion market cap valuation.Ethereum tops $4,000Major cap altcoins continued to be led by Solana (SOL), which capitalized on previous gains to deliver 14% daily growth at the time of writing.Ethereum (ETH), the largest altcoin by market cap, recaptured the $4,000 mark during its own Fed-induced rally.ETH/BTC 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewAgainst Bitcoin, ETH returned above the 0.08 BTC mark after hitting local lows of 0.078 earlier in the day.