Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) consolidated above $42,000 prior to Wall Street’s opening bell on Jan. 7 as more similarities to last year’s lows emerged.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBTC “very closely” mimicking May behaviorData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a nervous Bitcoin market as BTC/USD avoided another retest of $40,000 support.Earlier, after briefly falling below $41,000, analysts had warned that a further capitulation event may occur, this having the potential to bring the pair down to $30,000 or even lower.That figure rings true for market participants, having formed the bottom of a protracted capitulation which lasted from May to July last year.Then, as now, miner upheaval combined with macroeconomic factors to temporarily take the momentum out of the Bitcoin bull market.”BTC is following May 2021 very closely,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted in a series of tweets on current price action.He noted that as of Friday, BTC/USD was performing a break of the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) — just like the mid-July move which formed the bottom of that capitulation phase. The 50-week EMA sat at $45,000 on the day.The #BTC capitulation event below the blue 50-week EMA is in progress$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/KGvl2ogbGO— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) January 7, 2022Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe meanwhile noted the differences between the two phases.A “swift correction south” this time around means that prolonged sideways movement and breakout to the upside from 2021 does not overall characterize the current market.”The $46,000 level remains a very important one to watch. If that one breaks, I think the entire bear market is over or the entire correction is over and we’re looking for upwards potential,” he said during his latest YouTube update.Ethereum has trader planning $2,200 buy-inAltcoins also saw trouble on the day, following warnings that any strong moves previously were likely a red flag — a bull trap.Related: ‘Dip,’ ‘Buy’ and ‘Fed’ top trending topics on social media, per surveyEther (ETH), the largest altcoin by market cap, traded down 4.5% at the time of writing to near $3,000 — down $700 in a week.ETH/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewSome in the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap escaped the downtrend, with Cardano (ADA) up 1.2% at $1.23 and XRP flat.A still highly cautious Pentoshi identified levels as low as $2,200 for buying ETH, expecting it to hit at “some point this year.”

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly touched $43,000 prior to Wall Street opening on Jan. 6 as new market analysis offered bad news for bears. BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView”Very similar to $30,000″Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it ranged after hitting its lowest levels in nearly six weeks.Amid six-month lows for sentiment and a feeling of foreboding on social media, analysis investigating trader behavior nonetheless concluded that all is not as bad as it seems.In a series of posts on the day, popular Twitter account Byzantine General argued that for all the downside, sellers are practically exhausted.”This is starting to feel very similar to the 30k range now,” he summarized. “The imbalance between bid & ask side is getting crazy. Spot bids keep getting filled with new orders showing up, meanwhile ask side fails to repopulate in any meaningful capacity.”Bitcoin order books involve both “active” and “passive” flows, and it is the former trading live spot that naturally sets the trajectory at a given time.Overnight, as BTC/USD lost almost 10% in hours, bears gradually lost momentum, and at current levels are hopelessly fighting active buyer interest.”At this point it’s a waiting game… Because price is sitting on top of a thick bid side and the active (sell) flow has given up,” Byzantine General continued.Looking ahead, the status quo cannot last, as those buyers will want to move the market by shifting their bids higher. This, the theory goes, should spark a snowball effect to “slice through the book like it’s butter.””This is the feeling I got at the 30k range and I’m getting it again,” he added.”Maybe there’s a little less buying juice left in the tank than before, but I still think this range is probably accumulation and not re-distribution.”BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp) showing summer consolidation period. Source: TradingViewResponding, fellow trader Pentoshi, who has adopted a conspicuously cool perspective on Bitcoin’s cycle future since November, warned that it was not just a matter of order book cues.”Live, die, repeat”November’s $69,000 all-time highs saw the beginning of selling from long-term holders, this is common with every bullish cycle top.Related: Bitcoin monthly RSI lowest since September 2020 in fresh ‘oversold’ signalThe short-lived nature of the “top” in 2021, however, has left many assuming that the real cycle peak has indeed not yet arrived.For the meantime, however, the similarities to summer’s $30,000 floor were undeniable for market participants on the day.#Bitcoin Update $42,333 was the first wick low and retest of key trendline. Today we retesting the wick low while trendline is at $39,915min pot bull div, SL below $42.333Relcaim or one more month of similar choppy PA like at $30k. Revisit the thread. https://t.co/TT9iPkSau8 pic.twitter.com/MUCzzqU2GA— AN₿ESSA (@Anbessa100) January 6, 2022″Uncanny how BTC is in a Jun-Jul deja vu. Live, die, repeat,” statistician Willy Woo tweeted.

Bitcoin (BTC) delivered fresh volatility on Jan. 6 as rangebound behavior saw its first shake-up in weeks.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewOpen interest remains highData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping overnight to hit $42,000 for the first time since December.Although not the upside breakout that many had wanted, the move was nonetheless predicted, Bitcoin essentially “filling” the space left after it briefly wicked to $41,800 early last month.Those lows were the result of a liquidation cascade, and while long positions also felt pain this time around, scepticism remained as to whether the revisiting of $42,000 had been enough to put in a price floor.”Honestly surprised we didn’t see more of a flush today if this was aggressive longs built up. Could still resolve to the upside,” analyst William Clemente wrote in a series of tweets about the action.”All I know for sure is that this party is just getting started.”Btw this isn’t a doom post. Honestly surprised we didn’t see more of a flush today if this was aggressive longs built up. Could still resolve to the upside. All I know for sure is that this party is just getting started. pic.twitter.com/RAgXKzHTnl— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) January 6, 2022Clemente was among those already calling for more volatile conditions this month and noted that the majority of Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) remained. As Cointelegraph reported, OI had hit all-time highs in BTC terms during the week.As ever, those zooming out found comfort and familiarity in Bitcoin price action versus historical behavior.Fibonacci levels analyzed by fellow analyst TechDev showed that Bitcoin was still at least attempting to copy patterns built up from previous halving cycles.Based on everything I have shared for months, and until my invalidation points are reached, it remains my belief that there is a higher than not probability that #Bitcoin finds support near linear 2.618 and moves higher, as it has done twice before.— TechDev (@TechDev_52) January 5, 2022

“Comparisons to past cycles aside, price/indicator action and volume behavior suggest to me that 2021 was effectively a year of consolidation (similar to 2019-Q3 2020) and that is likely to lead to another market impulse before the next major correction,” he added in his own set of posts as the market began to dip.Market most fearful since July 2021For the average retail investor, however, it looked as if there was little hope left — at least on the day.Related: New year, same ‘extreme fear’ — 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this weekThe Crypto Fear & Greed Index halved during the dip to 15/100 — deep within the Index’s “extreme fear” zone and its lowest level since last July.At that time, BTC/USD traded at a maximum of $33,000.Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.meAs Cointelegraph reported, jitters in sentiment were already palpable as 2022 began.

A key Bitcoin (BTC) metric has just reached its lowest levels since the months after the March 2020 market crash.As noted by popular analysts on Jan. 5, Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) is printing a “hidden bullish divergence” on monthly timeframes — and if it plays out, they say, the result will be very pleasing for hodlers.RSI falls below summer 2021 floorAmid frustration at the lack of direction on BTC/USD, it is no secret that a host of on-chain indicators has long demanded higher price levels.The current $46,000 may slide further, but the classic RSI metric now shows just how comparatively “oversold” Bitcoin is at that price.”Bitcoin monthly RSI is currently lower than the May–July 2021 correction,” popular analyst Matthew Hyland revealed, referring to Bitcoin’s summer correction after the May miner upheaval.Whereas that period sent BTC/USD to $30,000 and monthly RSI to around 60, now, the price is higher but RSI lower — just 58.95. The metric was lower only in September 2020, with BTC/USD at around $10,000.BTC/USD 1-month candle chart (Bitstamp) with RSI. Source: TradingViewAlong with the one-month lows, monthly RSI is additionally printing a pattern that has only been observed once before, fellow trader and analyst TechDev responded.”Only been one other hidden monthly bull dive in Bitcoin’s history I could find. Let’s see if it confirms,” he wrote.RSI is traditionally used to determine how overbought or oversold an asset is at a given price point and has served Bitcoin particularly well in recent months.In mid-October, for example, RSI was at 68, TechDev noted that that level was still far from the point at which Bitcoin hits long-term price tops.Timing an exitBitcoin, meanwhile, has not convinced everyone that the future is bright.Related: Bitcoin open interest matches record high amid predictions of BTC price ‘fireworks’ this monthSome popular traders have high price targets, which they say must be broken for the market to flip bullish.Among them is Pentoshi, who has said that he will only reevaluate the market significantly on a macro perspective once $58,000–$60,000 returns and holds.The structure of the market as 2022 begins, he argues, is wholly unlike at other points in the period beginning in March 2020.”Odds aren’t favorable imo. Although I think Q1 gives some decent exits for many,” he concluded in a digest of his outlook at the start of the year.