Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) has a “possibility” of winning back more lost ground this month, but a retest of $40,000 may test bulls beforehand.In its latest market update on Feb. 11, trading suite Decentrader voiced cautious optimism over BTC price action.Derivatives turn complementaryAfter rallying above $45,500 on the back of U.S. economic data, BTC/USD has since dropped back into the range which has defined it this week.For Decentrader, the chances of a low-timeframe decline are there, even if on-chain metrics are putting in rare bull signals.”Bitcoin is at a relatively neutral level with clear zones of resistance and support above and below,” the update summarized.Acting in bulls’ favor is sentiment, now in “neutral” rather than “fear” territory, and encouraging signs from derivatives markets — low funding rates and a negative long/short ratio.”We have now finally had a sustained period of negative funding rates, seen OI drop over time, and importantly, saw Long/Shorts ratio go negative,” Decentrader continued. An accompanying chart showed that under such rare circumstances, BTC/USD went on to rally three times since late 2020.Funding rates are still overall negative as of Friday, data from monitoring resource Coinglass shows.BTC funding rates chart. Source: Coinglass”Nothing changed” on short-term outlookMoving to the forecast, a downturn could produce a rebound at $39,000 should bulls not be too shaken by the $40,000 mark being broken.Related: Exchange stablecoin reserve hits $27B as Bitcoin rises toward $50K ‘fair value’”To the upside, there are resistance levels on either side of the important point of breakdown from the summer crash at $47,950 and $52,660,” the update added.For the meantime, however, it is yet another case of “wait and see.””Nothing changed,” popular trader and analyst Crypto Ed argued in his latest social media update. “Expecting a move towards $40k. Bullish scenario indicates a bounce to 48k. Bearish comes in play when we break 40k.” BTC/USD chart with expected trajectories. Source: Crypto Ed/ Twitter

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around $44,000 on Feb. 9 as a modest uptick towards the Wall Street open provided relief for support levels. BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewMelt-up or breakdown?Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD acting in the range defined in recent days without significant downside pressure.Circling $44,000, traders were mostly preoccupied with a potential retracement, this having the potential to wipe out practically all recent progress.”Now that we are at monthly resistance we may see a pullback. Even if we do, a higher low to 38K–40K would be “healthy” followed by continuation to 50K+ and a reclamation of our monthly resistance after which point, I’ll have my sights set on a new ATH,” Credible Crypto argued on Twitter.The long-term picture differed considerably, depending on the source and interpretation of macro market phenomena. While some called for a “melt-up” in stocks that would likewise aid BTC, others were far from convinced that 2022 would be an easy ride.Has #Bitcoin Bottomed? It Looks Unlikely If #StockMarket Hasn’t – Most assets in 2022 face strong deflationary forces from the excesses of 2021, but Bitcoin appears well poised to come out ahead as it matures to the status of global digital collateral and shows divergent strength pic.twitter.com/oI7dhRvq1i— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) February 9, 2022A contrasting theory reasoned that with short sellers shaken out, there would now be less pressure to drive BTC/USD down to take liquidity.”The biggest question is: How much more pain can we inflict? All the liquidity’s taken from Short Term Holders, there’s no sell pressure. Market’s had a full healthy reset, while maintaining a bullish structure on the large time frames,” Twitter account Crypto5max summarized.MACD delivers classic bull signalIn a separate development, Feb. 9 saw the return of a classic bullish chart signal, which has got one analyst particularly excited.Related: Bitcoin needs to reclaim these two levels to avoid another dip to $28KBitcoin’s moving average convergence/ divergence (MACD), a key frontrunner of bullish phases in 2021 and prior, printed a fresh key crossover this week.For Matthew Hyland, the implications of the event are clear, based on historical patterns.”I have been waiting and updating this key reversal indicator to cross for nearly a month and it has finally happened,” he commented alongside a chart showing the MACD signal’s previous impact on BTC price action.BTC/USD annotated chart with MACD. Source: Matthew Hyland/ TwitterAs Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) likewise flashed green last week, breaking out of a downtrend in place since November’s all-time highs.