Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) fell through $40,000 as Wall Street opened on Feb. 18 with analysts watching lower levels.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin falls to two-week lowsData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD teasing a $40,000 breakdown throughout Feb. 18, with several attempts seeing bounces higher before the level finally gave way.At the time of writing, the situation was still unclear, with 24-hour losses for the pair approaching 5% and volatility heightened.The last time that Bitcoin traded below $40,000 was on Feb. 4, making current levels a two-week low.Correlation to stocks, themselves, rattled by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions, remained in focus.#bitcoin remains highly correlated to risk assets. It too remains in a confirmed downtrend. Day 25 heading into the Half Cycle Low. It has a new Cycle Low scheduled around March 24th, same as stocks! It’s on a clear path, bulls are the one’s who need to change that. pic.twitter.com/tPxhKmAiRU— Bob Loukas (@BobLoukas) February 18, 2022Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile noted that February’s strength had still failed to see BTC/USD reclaim two key exponential moving averages he had previously argued to be essential for an attack on all-time highs in the future.”Bitcoin wasn’t able to reclaim the two Bull Market EMAs, therefore failing to break into the upper half of the macro range,” he tweeted. “$BTC will continue to occupy the lower half of the macro range until further notice.” BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/ TwitterThat macro range includes a floor price of just under $30,000 — the yearly open from 2021, since which time Bitcoin has effectively acted in a range between there and $69,000.Altcoins share the pain as BTC fallsLosses were equally mounting among altcoins on the Wall Street open, with some of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap losing 8% or more.Related: Here are the BTC price levels to watch with Bitcoin ‘hanging on $40K cliff’Ether (ETH) was back below $3,000, while all but one of the top 50 altcoins were in the red at the time of writing, the exception being Klaytn (KLAY), which was up 2%.ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) saw its first major test of $40,000 for several weeks overnight, but what price zones are traders watching next?Whether long or short-term, the answer for many is simple: the range is still intact.Bitcoin wobbles after “moment of truth”On the back of macro pressures, BTC/USD saw a moderate sell-off on Feb. 17 which continued into Friday, with local lows of $40,330 appearing on Bitstamp, as per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.A bounce took the pair above $41,000, but nerves remain over further challenges to the strength of bulls’ resolve.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewA popular bounce zone in the event of a break below currently lies at $38,000, and as last night’s lows set in, popular Twitter account Credible Crypto reiterated the need to hold that number going forward.”Moment of truth,” he summarized alongside a forecast chart. “Lows taken, if our bottom is in at 32k then downside should be limited to the GREEN region below to form a higher low. Again, this is my primary, and I expect we hold this region and continue up to challenge monthly resistance once more.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Credible Crypto/ TwitterSome were less enthusiastic about that prospect, with popular trader Crypto Ed concerned about even the $40,000 test.”Hanging on the 40k cliff, feels like a miracle is needed after that (for me) surprising move down yesterday,” he said.The structure of derivatives markets meanwhile reinforces the macro bottom being around $32,000. As noted by analyst Dylan LeClair, bidders entered at that point when it hit in January, providing more than a mere line in the sand for price stability.”The speculative air in the $BTC derivative market has essentially completely unwound, with spot market bidders taking hold at 33k in early January,” he said in one of a series of tweets about the environment. Honestly fam, if I had to judge by the weekly chart I would say pack your stuff it’s over but…yeah… let’s see pic.twitter.com/95Z9cObaS3— muro – won’t DM you (@MuroCrypto) February 17, 2022While some were decidedly queazy about longer timeframes, LeClair argued that zooming out, nothing had really changed and that Bitcoin remained on track in terms of its four-year halving cycles.”Macro environment aside, the bitcoin monetization process continues on. With all the uncertainty, bitcoin is ranging around approximately an order of magnitude higher than it was during the previous cycle. Don’t lose sight of the bigger picture,” he concluded.True to form, the overnight lows filled a CME Bitcoin futures gap left over from the exit out of the $30,000-$40,000 corridor at the start of the month.CME Bitcoin futures 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingViewFidelity analyst: Price debate “mostly noise”Observing the past year’s highs and lows, Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at asset manager Fidelity, called for a refocus of attention to multi-year network growth instead of price analysis.Related: Bitcoin ‘whales’ and ‘fishes’ pause accumulation as markets weigh March 50bps hike odds”Bitcoin has been in a choppy trading range for almost a year now, bouncing between 30k and 65k. The up-or-down debate continues to be a favorite hobby for many, but it’s mostly noise. For Bitcoin, the network is what matters,” he told Twitter followers this week.BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Jurrien Timmer/ TwitterFor Timmer, Bitcoin’s price targets lie in a similiar regression curve to Apple’s metamorphosis from the 1990s to today.The result could be a much slower journey to $1 million and beyond than many hope, but at the same time, the solidity of network fundamentals and adoption should come first.Bitcoin demand model chart. Source: Jurrien Timmer/ TwitterAs Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s hash rate and difficulty are already at unprecedented levels.