Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $64,500 after Monday’s Wall Street open as markets digested more US-Iran uncertainty.Key points:Bitcoin joins US stocks in selling off amid uncertainty over whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.The Japanese yen commands attention as it slides back toward historic lows against the dollar.Bitcoin analysis doubts market strength despite “exceptionally strong” institutional inflows.Iran warns “no military solution” to Hormuz closureData from TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $64,447 on Bitstamp, its lowest since Friday, before a modest rebound. BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThis mirrored US stocks, which initially fell as the odds of the Strait of Hormuz oil route reopening appeared to fade. Addressing Iran’s Islamic Consultative Assembly, deputy speaker Ali Nikzad said that the “opening of the Strait of Hormuz has no military solution,” as quoted by Al Jazeera and others.US WTI crude oil was up by almost 5% on the day at $80.90 per barrel at the time of writing, while the S&P 500 index nonetheless reversed to turn green, still below Friday’s all-time highs.CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAttention also remained focused on the Japanese yen, which continued to weaken against the US dollar despite an earlier rare joint intervention by Japan and the US. USD/JPY hit 159 on Monday, nearing the psychological boundary of 160 before the end of the week’s first Asia session.Economist Mohamed El-Erian warned that more decisive government policy action from the Japanese side would be required.“The yen has been weakening gradually since the large joint Japan-US FX intervention, a sharp reminder that the key to fixing a currency ‘mispricing’ is getting the policy mix right. The longer Japan delays in doing so, the more elusive the goal of this historic intervention becomes,” he wrote in a post on X.USD/JPY four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBitcoin comeback “tentative” despite $865 million ETF inflowsBitcoin analysts warned that the attempted BTC price rebound “remains tentative” despite some promising signals.Related: Markets flip for Fed rate-hike pause into CPI: Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekGlassnode’s latest Market Pulse update highlighted weak spot-market momentum as one key missing component of a sustainable recovery.“Momentum has returned toward neutral and spot taker buying has accelerated sharply, but overall centralized exchange turnover remains subdued,” the onchain analytics platform said. It added:“This divergence points to improving demand within a broader consolidation regime rather than a broad-based expansion in speculative activity.”Among the positive catalysts were institutional inflows, which Glassnode noted were “exceptionally strong.” Last week, the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net inflows of $865.3 million, per data from UK-based investment company, Farside Investors.US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside InvestorsData from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, meanwhile, showed that hedge funds had flipped net long CME BTC futures — an event that CEO Ki Young Ju described as “rare.”“The basis trade keeps them structurally short. That’s why this chart’s been red for years. You can’t carry trade into a net long. The suits are betting on upside,” he told X followers.CME Bitcoin futures positioning data. Source: Ki Young Ju on X.com

Bitcoin starts the week with new August highs as traders weigh the impact of crunch US inflation data.Key points:US CPI and PPI data comes amid fluctuating bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes in 2026.The Japanese yen remains at the forefront as it creeps back toward the key 160 level against the US dollar.Bitcoin (BTC) traders see the area around $65,800 as crucial for bulls after BTC/USD hits new month-to-date highs.Larger Bitcoin wallets contrast with retail holders after a conspicuous two-month accumulation spree.Baskets of onchain indicators still see the bear market continuing in the second half of the year. CPI, PPI data comes at crucial time for FedKey US inflation data is due as markets shift their expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate policy.The July prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.The timing of the release is important — recent US inflation cues have given mixed signals to Fed watchers, while resolution of the US-Iran war likewise remains far from certain. The latter has implications for CPI in particular, given oil’s price sensitivity to events around the Strait of Hormuz shipping route.“Crude oil prices remain ​caught between opposing forces, as markets assess the possibility of a breakthrough over the Strait of Hormuz ‌against ⁠Iran’s conditions for reopening the strategic waterway,” Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based research company SS WealthStreet, told Reuters on Monday.CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewLast month’s CPI and PPI results both surprised to the downside, with the former seeing its largest monthly decline since April 2020. Nonfarm payrolls numbers last week continued the trend, showing weaker-than-expected labor-market conditions.Both bolstered odds of a more dovish Fed going forward, with markets switching from a 0.25% rate hike probability to a continued pause as the most likely outcome at its Sept. 16 meeting. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed a 56% chance of a pause as of Monday.“A week ago, market-implied odds strongly favored a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting in September. Those odds now slightly favor the Fed keeping rates on hold, with just one hike before pausing well into next year,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company wrote in the latest edition of its newsletter, The Market Mosaic.Fed target rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupMosaic added that last week’s ISM Manufacturing and Services data pointed to the US economy “holding up just fine,” despite the data sparking concerns over signs of future “stagflation” — rebounding inflation gauges combined with slow economic growth and rising unemployment. Yen reverses days after US interventionThe US role in manipulating the Japanese yen remains a key point on the radar for traders worldwide after the first joint US-Japanese intervention since the late 1990s. After JPY/USD weakened to its lowest levels since 1986 at the start of August, the New York Fed, acting on behalf of the US Treasury, purchased yen using euros via the Exchange Stabilization Fund, or ESF, a stockpile of foreign exchange reserves.At the time, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that the door was open to repeat interventions in future. “We strongly support Japan’s decisive market and monetary steps to correct the substantial undervaluation of the yen,” he wrote in a post on X.In the interim, however, the yen has begun to weaken again after initially strengthening to around 156 per dollar. At the time of writing, it was back above 158.50, closing in on the key 160 level once more.Analyzing the history of yen interventions, Robin Brooks, a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution, warned that the mechanism would be unable to change the status quo on its own.“You’d think — given everything that’s getting thrown at markets — that the yen would have risen more than during the previous two intervention episodes we saw earlier this year, but that’s not true,” he wrote in a blog post on Friday. He said:“Price action is comparable to the NY Fed’s rate check on Jan. 23, which came just ahead of Japan’s Feb. 8 general election. That’s underwhelming and supports my general take that this intervention – like past ones – will fail to stop the Yen’s weakening trend.”USD/JPY one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewPreviously, Cointelegraph reported on the longer-term implications for the yen carry trade, a key liquidity consideration for crypto and risk-asset traders.“For global markets, the question is less about any single intervention and more about whether higher Japanese yields alter the incentives for domestic investors to allocate capital overseas,” trading company QCP Capital commented last week.Trader eyes BTC bullish divergences with $65,800 now keyBitcoin saw new month-to-date highs of $65,420 into Sunday’s weekly close, subsequently consolidating progress as TradFi markets returned.Data from TradingView still showed BTC/USD acting in a stubborn range, with the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) in place as resistance overhead at $65,827.BTC/USD one-day chart with 50-month EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIn his latest market analysis, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe saw three BTC price breakout signals nonetheless locking in on classic price indicators. The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) and  relative strength index (RSI) both have “strong” bullish divergences on both three-day and one-week time frames, he reported at the weekend.Alongside a chart showing the divergences, in which the indicators set higher lows while price makes lower lows, Van de Poppe put $65,800 as the key target for bulls to break through next.“All in all, if $65,800 breaks (which is the crucial weekly level), I expect to see a volatile move upwards as short-side liquidity will be forced to move out of its position after this consolidation,” he said.BTC/USDT one-week chart with MACD, RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe on X.comThe latest exchange order-book data from CoinGlass shows liquidity building either side of spot price, with $65,800 likewise a key area for potential short-position liquidations. The new August highs appeared not to catch traders by surprise, with 24-hour cross-crypto short liquidations at $53 million at the time of writing.BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlassAndrew Kamsky, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, eyed a breakout from a falling wedge construction on the daily chart. He suggested that a “decision window” could determine the fate of the range by Aug. 17.“A rejection between $66.4K and $66.8K, followed by a series of higher lows, could begin forming an ascending triangle and create another opportunity for an upside breakout. A move back inside the wedge would weaken the bullish setup, while a crack below wedge support would invalidate it and suggest that the market is forming a different structure,” he said.As an upside target, Kamsky gave $72,000 as a “possible scenario.”BTC/USD one-day chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantLarge BTC investor accumulation hits multimonth highLarger Bitcoin investors are drawing attention to themselves this week as new analysis flags a “sharp shift toward accumulation.”Data from CryptoQuant shows a rapid increase in Bitcoin exposure involving addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC. On a 60-day rolling basis, the cohort’s balance increased by 46,420 BTC on Aug. 9, marking the largest uptick since March 15.“More notably, the latest reading is nearly double the 23,238 BTC accumulation peak recorded in mid-March, pointing to a significant acceleration in activity among the largest balance group,” CryptoQuant commented.More recently, larger hodlers have begun to diverge from smaller wallets traditionally associated with retail investors. After initially accumulating through July, addresses holding between 0.1 BTC and 1 BTC distributed around 9,700 BTC for the 60 days through Aug. 9.“The divergence is notable because it shows two very different positioning trends developing simultaneously: the largest BTC balance cohort is increasing exposure while smaller holders are reducing it,” CryptoQuant said, noting the timing of the accumulation coinciding with the upcoming US CPI and PPI data releases.Bitcoin accumulation and distribution by cohort. Source: CryptoQuantLast week, Cointelegraph reported what CryptoQuant called “strong accumulation” between $62,000 and $65,000, with around 0.7% of the total BTC supply — around 155,000 coins —  last moving onchain within that range. At the same time, a record divergence between spot and futures trading volumes has placed doubt over Bitcoin’s ability to recover lost ground in the current climate.Commenting on daily spot-market turnover relative to market size, Rafael Schultze-Kraft, cofounder of onchain analytics platform Glassnode, described spot markets as “virtually dead.”“Daily spot turnover ratio sits at just 0.32%, the lowest level in our data, while dollar volume is down ~64% YoY. Textbook apathy. A healthier move higher needs participation to come back,” he told X followers last week.Bitcoin spot turnover data. Source: Rafael Schultze-Kraft on X.comIndicators see Bitcoin bear market continuingOn aggregate, Bitcoin onchain metrics and associated price gauges still demand cooler conditions before a reliable long-term reversal hits.Related: BIP-110 ends with a whimper, CLARITY vote punted: Hodler’s Digest, Aug. 9In separate research, Schultze-Kraft revealed a record “capitulation” phase in a basket of 45 price indicators which make up Glassnode’s Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap. This compares market health across four-year BTC price cycles, with current conditions characteristic of the final stages of the bear market.“Today it sits in its coldest stretch since FTX: late in the bear, but not yet the unanimous deep blue that previously marked a floor,” Schultze-Kraft commented on the heatmap’s latest readings last week.A similar compilation from CoinGlass, which it dubs its Bull Cycle Peak Indicators, currently sits at 32% toward its ideal “sell” zone.Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Indicators. Source: CoinGlassThe data ties in with the views of an growing number of Bitcoin traders looking at historical patterns to determine BTC price performance for the rest of 2026. This week, trader and analyst Rekt Capital drew particular comparisons to the 2022 bear market.“Bitcoin is forming Lower Highs here relative to the July upside wick In 2022, August actually developed a Higher High relative to the preceding July,” its weekend post said. Rekt Capital reiterated Bitcoin’s current inability to reclaim the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $65,827 — a classic predecessor of a final bear-market capitulation. “No matter the structure however, 4 years ago Bitcoin positioned itself for a bearish retest of the 50 Month EMA (purple) to reject and drop lower later. Today as things stand, Bitcoin is technically positioned for the same thing,” he added.BTC/USD one-month chart with 21, 50 EMA. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

Bitcoin (BTC) hit new August highs into Friday’s Wall Street open as markets reacted to weaker US jobs numbers.Key points:Crypto and risk assets gained after US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July.Fed interest-rate bets for September shift from a 0.25% hike to a pause on signs of a weaker labor market.Bitcoin and altcoins stayed “resilient” after a week of bearish surprises, per analysis from QCP Capital.Crypto, stocks higher on low nonfarm payrolls printData from TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $65,340 on Bitstamp, up 1.3% on the day, as fresh US labour-market data was released.BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewThe US economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, per nonfarm payrolls data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), with the unemployment rate at 4.1%, numbers it described as “little changed” versus the month prior.“The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 66,000, from +129,000 to +63,000, and the change for June was revised down by 37,000, from +57,000 to +20,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 103,000 lower than previously reported,” an official statement added.The combination of negative July values and downward revisions appeared to boost both crypto and US stocks, with traders linking weaker labor-market conditions with potential policy softening from the Federal Reserve.The S&P 500 index opened 0.5% higher, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index added just over 1%.Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool reveals that markets are now expecting the Fed to hold interest rates at current levels at its September meeting. As late as yesterday, majority odds had favored a 0.25% rate hike.Fed target-rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting. Source: CME GroupPrior to the employment data release, Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, said that it would “set the tone” for both the September meeting and the Fed’s annual economic Jackson Hole economic symposium, taking place at the end of August. Fabian Dori, CIO at Sygnum Bank, predicted that Fed chair Kevin Warsh would be influenced by the extent to which payrolls data shifted lower. “An orderly slowdown supports the liquidity relief case, while a print weak enough to raise growth concerns can still pressure risk assets even as rate odds move,” he said in comments sent to Cointelegraph.Analysis praises Bitcoin, altcoin “resilience”In its latest crypto and macro overview released on the day, trading company QCP Capital described the macro picture as “uncertain” for Bitcoin.Related: Bitcoin price-metric basket sees longest capitulation since FTX blow-up: Glassnode“For crypto, the week’s price action points to resilience rather than clear directional confirmation,” it summarized.QCP noted that the fallout from the Coldcard wallet exploit, along with BTC sales by corporations including Strategy, had only sparked “limited demand for panic protection” on options markets.Previously, Cointelegraph reported on option traders’ expectations for a BTC price trading-range breakdown to occur next month.

Bitcoin (BTC) derivatives trading volumes are now nearly eight times higher than spot markets on Binance.Key points:Bitcoin daily spot trading volumes on Binance are diverging from futures more than ever.Spot demand has declined in recent months, while futures demand is still net positive, per data from CryptoQuant.Options traders are hedging for downside in September after months of rangebound BTC price action.Binance sees record split in Bitcoin spot vs. futures tradingData from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant released on Friday reveals record readings for Bitcoin futures-to-spot trading volume ratios. The ratio now stands at 7.82, meaning that futures volume outweighs spot nearly eight times over.Daily futures volume on Binance hit $57.82 billion this week, while spot trailed at $6.08 billion.“Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading near $64,000, while futures trading volume continues to grow at a faster pace than spot trading volume,” CryptoQuant contributing analyst Arab Chain commented on the data. “This trend reflects a shift in market activity, with more investors and traders preferring to use futures for leverage, risk management, and short-term trading strategies.”Bitcoin futures-to-spot trading volume ratio (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantThe record comes after months of retreating investor demand, with the exodus particularly noticeable in the retail trading sector. Previously, Cointelegraph reported that AI stocks have become a key destination for retail capital.CryptoQuant data shows that on a rolling 30-day basis, both spot and derivatives demand continue to deteriorate, with spot showing a more consistent decline since June. BTC/USD has spent the past two months in a narrow range above $60,000, contributing to a lack of interest among spot traders. Traders initiated a major spike in onchain realized losses in February, when Bitcoin first dropped to the $60,000 mark. However, subsequent retests have seen lower volume as both buyers and sellers have become exhausted.Bitcoin net realized profit/loss data. Source: CryptoQuant“Bitcoin spot demand is weakening. Futures demand remains net positive, but is significantly lower than during the rebound three months ago,” CEO Ki Young Ju reported in a post on X late last month.Bitcoin spot vs. futures demand. Source: Ki Young Ju on X.comTraders position for September BTC price range breakdownExamining the odds of a Bitcoin price breakout from its local trading range this week, crypto exchange Bitfinex flagged decaying volume across both spot and derivatives markets.Related: Bitcoin treasury trade ‘breaking’ and fund holdings drop 10%: Analysis“For now, volumes cluster in the middle of the range and thin out near the extremes. Taker volume especially is a sign that neither side is pushing hard to break the range in either direction,” its analytics arm, Bitfinex Research, wrote in an update.Bitfinex said that options traders were positioned for rangebound conditions to continue in August, following a 7.4% gain for BTC/USD in July. In September, meanwhile, they expect the range to resolve to the downside, following familiar Bitcoin bear-market behavioral patterns.“Options traders are effectively pricing in a continuation of the range and, on aggregate, hedging for a downside resolution of it several weeks from now,” it added alongside data from onchain analytics platform Glassnode.Bitcoin options composite chart. Source: Bitfinex

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed motionless at Thursday’s Wall Street open as analysis saw signs of reemergent US “stagflation.”Key points:Bitcoin stays below $65,000 as Iran tempers expectations over the Strait of Hormuz oil route reopening.US PMI data analysis sees “stagflation” return as a potential future risk.BTC price indecisiveness means that the market still lacks a “genuine breakdown,” says Bitfinex.Iran cools market hopes of Hormuz dealData from TradingView showed BTC/USD hovering above $64,000, down around 0.5% on the day, while US stocks opened flat.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAnticipation of a deal between Iran and Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz oil route did little to spark volatility — in the absence of US participation, it remained uncertain whether international shipping would fully resume.“This understanding does not, in itself, mean that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen,” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said in an interview with the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), quoted by CNN.US WTI crude oil was little changed on the day at $76 per barrel, having hit three-week lows of $74.30 the day prior.CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAs markets awaited further geopolitical cues, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter turned to the latest US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI and employment data. Released on Wednesday, this showed a divergence continuing, with PMI rising 0.1 point in July to 54.1, while employment dropped 3.6 points to 47.4, its lowest reading since March.“At the same time, the prices paid index surged +2.6 points, to 70.3, near the highest since October 2022. Prices paid have now trended higher for over 2 years, rising +16.9 points since March 2024. In other words, the economy is increasingly under pressure from both rising prices and a weakening labor market,” it reported on X.Kobeissi added that the odds of stagflation was thus “intensifying” based on the combined PMI readings.US services PMI data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X.comAnalysis debates solution to BTC price paralysisWith Bitcoin failing to break beyond a local range in place since the start of June, onchain analytics platform Glassnode described BTC/USD as showing “boredom rather than capitulation.”Related: Bitcoin treasury trade ‘breaking’ and fund holdings drop 10%: AnalysisIn its latest analysis on Thursday, Glassnode noted Bitcoin’s lack of reaction as gold hit its highest levels in six weeks and the S&P 500 reached all-time highs. “The regime in one line: a compressed, under-owned market that global risk appetite has left behind, with bottom conditions assembling but incomplete,” it summarized.BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewPreviously, Cointelegraph reported on bear-market comparisons seeing history repeating itself in 2026, with Bitcoin slowly eroding support before dropping to the cycle’s next macro floor.Echoing Glassnode’s sentiment, Bitfinex Research, the analytics arm of crypto exchange Bitfinex, also saw the need for a more decisive macro bottom trigger than current conditions could produce.“While macro developments and bitcoin’s underperformance compared with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 signal underlying stress, a genuine breakdown requires something more forceful, followed by volume-supportive price action,” it wrote in an update on Wednesday.