Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin ‘dormant’ for 7+ years moved right before BTC price dropped 5%

Bitcoin (BTC) dived $3,000 into the morning of April 1 as a widely-predicted pullback seemed to accompany fresh moves by major investors. As revealed by the Whale Shadows indicator, over 11,000 BTC suddenly left its wallet on March 29, having previously sat there for most of a decade.Dormant coins echo December 2017Whale Shadows, coined by analyst Philip Swift, tracks coins that become active again after spending a considerable amount of time out of circulation.Tuned to only record when 100 BTC or more leave their long-term wallet, spikes in the metric have previously coincided with what Swift argues are “major highs” in price.“There was a significant movement on-chain yesterday, with +10k BTC that has not moved for the past 7-10yrs finally moving,” he noted on March 31. The spike in that age band, described as involving 7-9 year dormant coins on Swift‘s analytics site, LookIntoBitcoin, is one of the two largest ever in Bitcoin‘s history. The only other time that old coins moved on such a scale was in December 2017 when BTC/USD hit an all-time high that would remain unbeaten for three years.Bitcoin Whale Shadows chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoinDiscussing the data on Twitter, however, opinions varied considerably over the significance of the latest event.ℹ️ The massive amount of activated dormant #BTC in the previous posts are possibly linked to the #Cryptsy hack/theft.— Whale Alert (@whale_alert) March 29, 2022Swift argued that the funds involved were likely tied to a 2014 hack of cryptocurrency exchange Cryptsy, while others disagreed.Popular user Nunya Bizniz further noted that the spike had occurred after Bitcoin‘s comedown from its latest $69,000 all-time highs, not before.Past 3 moved prior to substantial corrections.Why do you think this move is occurring after a substantial correction?— Nunya Bizniz (@Pladizow) March 31, 2022

Bitcoin fails to escape the Ides of MarchAs Cointelegraph previously reported, appetites were keen for Bitcoin to retrace after reaching its highest levels of 2022, gaining as much as 29.4% between its March lows and highs.Related: Bitcoin just regained a key price trendline after its longest absence since March 2020Fellow popular trader Pentoshi nonetheless still entertained the potential for a trip over $50,000 next.For Crypto Ed, however, the outlook was less rosy. Having failed to hold its support zone of around $45,000, in addition to the $46,200 yearly open, Bitcoin now faced a deeper retracement and reentry back into its established trading range.In case the green box doesn’t hold, #BTC will do a full retrace of the previous pump. Just like every other pump in the current cycle….back to the demand zone and bounce. pic.twitter.com/ovGwuJrBSR— Ed_NL (@Crypto_Ed_NL) March 31, 2022

Previously, whales on exchange Bitfinex had caught the market‘s attention with a sell wall near current spot prices, one which bulls nonetheless managed to overcome temporarily.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin suddenly dives to $46K as attention focuses on large CME futures gaps

Bitcoin (BTC) began to show fresh signs of an impending correction on March 31 as BTC price action began to eat into last weekend’s CME futures gap.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewUp or down, CME futures gaps provide targetsData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD abruptly spiking down by $1,000 in minutes on Bitstamp after March 31’s Wall Street open. The pair had ranged after failing to cement $48,000 as support earlier in the week, amid calls for a retest of lower levels as a necessary step after considerable gains.At the time of writing, Bitcoin circled $46,700, having hit its lowest levels since the night of March 27.A look at the CME futures chart showed that short-term price performance could have a downside target in the form of the “gap” left over from last weekend.CME futures ended trading at around $44,650 on March 25, only to open on March 28 at $46,725.The resulting “gap” could very well get “filled” based on historical precedent, meaning that Bitcoin would be in for a further $2,000 dip.CME Group Bitcoin futures 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingViewPopular Twitter account @CivEkonom, nonetheless, noted that a “stealthy” previous gap from last year between $52,000 and $54,000 also remained open.”Gaps always get filled on The CME Bitcoin futures,” he commented.Everything according to planThe retest, meanwhile, fell into the short-term gameplan for some popular traders.Related: Bitcoin just regained a key price trendline after its longest absence since March 2020In an update on the day, Anbessa said that he likewise favored a return to the mid-$44,000 range, while only a deeper move would challenge his so far bullish perspective.#Bitcoin Gameplan Update ✔️Following green projection:-Resistance hit after 27% bounce from channel support- 360MA HTF target hit (slightly above)- channel breakout Now: – green projection stays in tact if S/R flip above $44,333 -prefer retest, patience here @ resist pic.twitter.com/sjzUdeduF9— AN₿ESSA (@Anbessa100) March 28, 2022Cheaper coins would further favor the main buyer of late March, Blockchain protocol Terra, buy-ins from which reached 30,000 BTC on March 31.Cross-crypto sentiment, meanwhile, also continued to adjust down, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index having hit t”greed” territory for the first time in 2022.Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.meThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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'Hold my beer' — Terra already up $165M from buying Bitcoin as BTC stash nears Tesla

Bitcoin (BTC) has already netted its biggest new buyer almost $200 million in profit from price increases, data suggests.Analysis of the wallet related to Blockchain protocol Terra reveals that since it began amassing BTC in Q1 this year, it is up $165 million.Terra co-founder rejects idea LFG moved BTC priceThe Luna Foundation Guard (LFG), a nonprofit organization around Terra, is currently following through on its plans to back its new TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin with both Bitcoin and its native LUNA token.The plans were only revealed this month by Terra co-founder Do Kwon, but the destination wallet for the funds has been active longer and saw a significant inflow back in January.Since mid-March, buying has accelerated, and in just a few short weeks, LFG’s balance has passed 30,000 BTC.If that weren’t impressive enough, Bitcoin’s bull run, whether associated or not with Terra’s purchases, has netted the organization $165 million in circumstantial profits. At this week’s three-month highs above $48,000, the tally hit $186 million.LFG wallet data showing USD profits. Source: BitinfochartsCountering criticism of Terra’s plans by gold bug Peter Schiff, meanwhile, Kwon appeared to deny the idea that such a large-volume investment run could produce BTC price upside.2/ Purchasing significant amounts of bitcoin creates information asymmetry between insiders (prof traders & desks) and everyone else. _I_ am not buying bitcoin, the reserve is for the communities of users that use UST – numbering in the millionsEveryone should know.— Do Kwon (@stablekwon) March 30, 2022″If I was capable of moving btc it would not be fit as a reserve asset,” he wrote as part of a Twitter debate with Schiff Thursday.Schiff had argued that the aim of backing a U.S. dollar stablecoin with anything other than USD “makes no sense.”Terra to Tesla: “Hold my beer”As Cointelegraph reported, Terra plans to buy a total of $10 billion worth of BTC.Related: Bitcoin just regained a key price trendline after its longest absence since March 2020This would make its holdings dwarf those of other well-known “whale” entities, including MicroStrategy, which currently has the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin treasury of 125,051 BTC ($5.89 billion).While MicroStrategy plans to keep buying, there has been no such commitment from runner-up Tesla, which holds an estimated 43,200 BTC.LFG, it would appear, will soon outpace it.Hold my beer. https://t.co/918awsBRne— LFG | Luna Foundation Guard (@LFG_org) March 30, 2022

In terms of net profits, Tesla is up 1.36 times versus its initial purchase price, while MicroStrategy is up 1.6 times, data from monitoring resource Bitcoin Treasuries shows.Largest Bitcoin corporate holdings summary. Source: Bitcoin TreasuriesThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin just regained a key price trendline after its longest absence since March 2020

Bitcoin (BTC) may be consolidating at $47,000, but longer timeframes show just how significant this week’s mini bull run has been.According to the Golden Ratio Multiplier (GRM) metric, on March 27, BTC/USD reclaimed an essential support zone for securing further upside.Bitcoin exits trendline slump that beat March 2020GRM is a long-term observational metric for Bitcoin price action. It is used to determine whether Bitcoin price growth (or the opposite) is overstretched relative to its overall maturity as an asset in terms of adoption.It does so using a log scale, which comprises Bitcoin’s 350-day moving average (DMA) and Fibonacci sequences to give multiples of that trendline.As such, BTC/USD dropping below the 350DMA is a now conspicuous sign of outlier price action, as the vast majority of days have been spent above it since mid-2019.As Bitcoin matures and adoption spreads, logarithmic extremes become less pronounced. “The Golden Ratio Multiplier is an effective tool because it is able to demonstrate when the market is likely overstretched within the context of Bitcoin’s adoption curve growth and market cycles,” analyst Philip Swift, who created the tool in 2019, explained at the time.March 2020 COVID-19 crash, for example, had marked Bitcoin’s longest recent trip below the 350DMA, but 2022 managed to beat it by three months to two.As such, the first three months of this year look like a clear exception to the rule when it comes to GRM.Another use for GRM is naturally tied to predicting Bitcoin market cycle tops. In 2019, Swift estimated that the next top would be roughly three times the 350DMA.”If this decreasing Fibonacci sequence pattern continues to play out as it has done over the course of the past 9 years, then the next market cycle high will be when price is in the area of the 350DMA x3,” he reasoned.Bitcoin Golden Ratio Multiplier chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoinWeekly chart makes mincemeat of once solid resistanceOn mid-range timeframes, as Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin is already making a statement when it comes to trendlines in place throughout 2022.Related: Bitcoin sentiment hits ‘greed’ in 2022 first amid calls for $45K BTC price pullbackTwo MAs providing resistance in Q1 — the 21-week and 50-week exponential MA — saw their first challenge this week, and bulls are currently battling for them as new support, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.The two roughly divide Bitcoin’s current trading range, in effect since the start of 2021, into two parts with $28,000 and $69,000 as the floor and ceiling, respectively.Moving above them, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital previously said, would allow BTC/USD to have a shot at new all-time highs.”BTC has performed a Weekly Candle Close above the 21-week Bull Market EMA when price is in an uptrend for the first time since mid-July 2021,” he added in an update on the topic this week.BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 21-week and 50-week EMA. Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin sentiment hits 'greed' in 2022 first amid calls for $45K BTC price pullback

Bitcoin (BTC) sentiment is seeing its first significant test of the rally to year-to-date highs as bullish gains dry up.The start of Wall Street trading on March 30 failed to induce a fresh advance on BTC/USD, which threatened to lose support at $47,000. From “extreme fear” to “greed” in one weekAfter gaining nearly 30% since March 14, Bitcoin has managed to cling to its yearly opening price as support, this previously marking the resistance ceiling of its trading range for throughout 2022. Now, however, hopes of a retracement appear to be coming true, as momentum shows signs of — at least temporary — fatigue.Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView captured the turnaround overnight on March 30, with $48,000 currently the level proving stubborn for bulls to overcome.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewTraders are keenly eyeing the possibility of a support backtest, but remain mixed over how low would be “too low” and end up threatening the uptrend altogether.Popular trader Crypto Ed highlighted $45,000 as a core bounce zone in the event of a broader pullback, this nonetheless being below the all-important yearly open at $46,200.A breakdown there and move towards $40,000, he added in his latest YouTube update, was something he “doubted.”Looking at the sentiment gauge of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, however, the need for a time out becomes all the more apparent. In under a week, its normalized score went from 22/100 — “extreme fear” — to 60/100 — “greed” and its highest level since mid-November.Since the local top, the score has already begun falling toward “neutral” territory, and measured 56/100 as of March 30.Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.meInflation nightmare scenario playing outAnalyzing the sentiment issue, social media users referenced macro forces at work, which traditionally spell trouble for risk assets in order to argue that enthusiasm around Bitcoin was overheated.Related: Bitcoin hits 3-day low as Terra BTC buy-ins dry up below $48KThe highest inflation in 40 years and interest rates near zero hardly provide a fertile risk-on environment, they argued.A look at gold markets, however, could show that the trend is going nowhere despite central bank measures to tame inflation.Material Scientist, creator of on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators, noted that gold futures deliveries were following the “dysfunctional” path previously forecast by ex-BitMEX CEO, Arthur Hayes.Hayes had warned that gold would skyrocket once it became apparent that saving in major fiat currencies was a lame bet.This is what Hayes talked about in his last article https://t.co/khsadQuEGK— Material Scientist (@Mtrl_Scientist) March 30, 2022In the same piece, Hayes said that Bitcoin would ultimately benefit from the chaos via a decoupling from traditional equities.”A gold price of >$10,000 will psychologically shock the global asset markets. As global asset allocators now think chiefly about inflation and real yields, any and all hard monetary assets believed to protect portfolios from this pestilence will get bid to astronomical levels,” he wrote. “And that is the mental shift that breaks the correlation of Bitcoin with traditional risk-on / off assets, such as US equities and nominal interest rates.”

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