Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin just regained a key price trendline after its longest absence since March 2020

Bitcoin (BTC) may be consolidating at $47,000, but longer timeframes show just how significant this week’s mini bull run has been.According to the Golden Ratio Multiplier (GRM) metric, on March 27, BTC/USD reclaimed an essential support zone for securing further upside.Bitcoin exits trendline slump that beat March 2020GRM is a long-term observational metric for Bitcoin price action. It is used to determine whether Bitcoin price growth (or the opposite) is overstretched relative to its overall maturity as an asset in terms of adoption.It does so using a log scale, which comprises Bitcoin’s 350-day moving average (DMA) and Fibonacci sequences to give multiples of that trendline.As such, BTC/USD dropping below the 350DMA is a now conspicuous sign of outlier price action, as the vast majority of days have been spent above it since mid-2019.As Bitcoin matures and adoption spreads, logarithmic extremes become less pronounced. “The Golden Ratio Multiplier is an effective tool because it is able to demonstrate when the market is likely overstretched within the context of Bitcoin’s adoption curve growth and market cycles,” analyst Philip Swift, who created the tool in 2019, explained at the time.March 2020 COVID-19 crash, for example, had marked Bitcoin’s longest recent trip below the 350DMA, but 2022 managed to beat it by three months to two.As such, the first three months of this year look like a clear exception to the rule when it comes to GRM.Another use for GRM is naturally tied to predicting Bitcoin market cycle tops. In 2019, Swift estimated that the next top would be roughly three times the 350DMA.”If this decreasing Fibonacci sequence pattern continues to play out as it has done over the course of the past 9 years, then the next market cycle high will be when price is in the area of the 350DMA x3,” he reasoned.Bitcoin Golden Ratio Multiplier chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoinWeekly chart makes mincemeat of once solid resistanceOn mid-range timeframes, as Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin is already making a statement when it comes to trendlines in place throughout 2022.Related: Bitcoin sentiment hits ‘greed’ in 2022 first amid calls for $45K BTC price pullbackTwo MAs providing resistance in Q1 — the 21-week and 50-week exponential MA — saw their first challenge this week, and bulls are currently battling for them as new support, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.The two roughly divide Bitcoin’s current trading range, in effect since the start of 2021, into two parts with $28,000 and $69,000 as the floor and ceiling, respectively.Moving above them, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital previously said, would allow BTC/USD to have a shot at new all-time highs.”BTC has performed a Weekly Candle Close above the 21-week Bull Market EMA when price is in an uptrend for the first time since mid-July 2021,” he added in an update on the topic this week.BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 21-week and 50-week EMA. Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin sentiment hits 'greed' in 2022 first amid calls for $45K BTC price pullback

Bitcoin (BTC) sentiment is seeing its first significant test of the rally to year-to-date highs as bullish gains dry up.The start of Wall Street trading on March 30 failed to induce a fresh advance on BTC/USD, which threatened to lose support at $47,000. From “extreme fear” to “greed” in one weekAfter gaining nearly 30% since March 14, Bitcoin has managed to cling to its yearly opening price as support, this previously marking the resistance ceiling of its trading range for throughout 2022. Now, however, hopes of a retracement appear to be coming true, as momentum shows signs of — at least temporary — fatigue.Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView captured the turnaround overnight on March 30, with $48,000 currently the level proving stubborn for bulls to overcome.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewTraders are keenly eyeing the possibility of a support backtest, but remain mixed over how low would be “too low” and end up threatening the uptrend altogether.Popular trader Crypto Ed highlighted $45,000 as a core bounce zone in the event of a broader pullback, this nonetheless being below the all-important yearly open at $46,200.A breakdown there and move towards $40,000, he added in his latest YouTube update, was something he “doubted.”Looking at the sentiment gauge of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, however, the need for a time out becomes all the more apparent. In under a week, its normalized score went from 22/100 — “extreme fear” — to 60/100 — “greed” and its highest level since mid-November.Since the local top, the score has already begun falling toward “neutral” territory, and measured 56/100 as of March 30.Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.meInflation nightmare scenario playing outAnalyzing the sentiment issue, social media users referenced macro forces at work, which traditionally spell trouble for risk assets in order to argue that enthusiasm around Bitcoin was overheated.Related: Bitcoin hits 3-day low as Terra BTC buy-ins dry up below $48KThe highest inflation in 40 years and interest rates near zero hardly provide a fertile risk-on environment, they argued.A look at gold markets, however, could show that the trend is going nowhere despite central bank measures to tame inflation.Material Scientist, creator of on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators, noted that gold futures deliveries were following the “dysfunctional” path previously forecast by ex-BitMEX CEO, Arthur Hayes.Hayes had warned that gold would skyrocket once it became apparent that saving in major fiat currencies was a lame bet.This is what Hayes talked about in his last article https://t.co/khsadQuEGK— Material Scientist (@Mtrl_Scientist) March 30, 2022In the same piece, Hayes said that Bitcoin would ultimately benefit from the chaos via a decoupling from traditional equities.”A gold price of >$10,000 will psychologically shock the global asset markets. As global asset allocators now think chiefly about inflation and real yields, any and all hard monetary assets believed to protect portfolios from this pestilence will get bid to astronomical levels,” he wrote. “And that is the mental shift that breaks the correlation of Bitcoin with traditional risk-on / off assets, such as US equities and nominal interest rates.”

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Bitcoin hits 3-day low as Terra BTC buy-ins dry up below $48K

Bitcoin (BTC) hinted at a welcome retracement overnight into March 30 after relentless upside failed to flip $48,000 to support.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewTrader: BTC still on target to crack $50,000Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping to $46,572 on Bitstamp as Wednesday began — its lowest since March 27.A susbequent rebound alleviated some of the losses, and at the time of writing, the pair traded at around $47,400.The change of tack followed a cooling of the narratives which had surrounded Bitcoin’s initial push beyond its yearly open price of $46,200 — a significant achievement which ended the cryptocurrency’s multi-month trading range.Blockchain protocol Terra, on its way to amassing an inital $3 billion in BTC for its new stablecoin, was now on an unofficial break from purchases, data from its target wallet appeared to show.BTC last arrived on March 28, but since then, the wallet’s 27,784 BTC ($1.32 billion) balance has remained unchanged.Do Kwon, the Terra co-founder who had initially made the buy-in public, had not made any comments about a potential change in strategy at the time of writing.For popular trader Pentoshi, there was nonetheless still room for further gains above $50,000 in Bitcoin’s next impulse move, whenever it might come.For now should expect yearly open and purple box to act as support. Potential smol pullback as LFG and Do Kwon appear to be AFK from the green button Looking for continuation to 51-53k during the next rally for $BTC pic.twitter.com/uMQhUI5XqB— Pentoshi (@Pentosh1) March 30, 2022As Cointelegraph reported, the yearly open was of key importance for many as new support. Losing this at such an early stage, they warned, would mean that the trading range had not been genuinely broken.Risk asset drawdown risk remains in focusAnother more sobering take on current BTC price action focused on Bitcoin trading habits.Related: Bitcoin ‘could easily see $30K’ with stocks due to 30% drawdown in 2022 — AnalystAs previously noted by Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, Bitcoin is being treated less like gold and more like a tech stock under current conditions, adding to an existing stocks correlation which must be broken to avoid price repercussions.The discussion continued on social media this week, as popular Twitter account @4adybug laid out misgivings based on Bitcoin’s performance this year.Hodlers, it argued, had been disappointed by Bitcoin’s failure to act as an inflation hedge. “Bitcoin does not have the characteristics of gold to withstand rate hikes and tightening cycles or black swan events,” one post read.Existing concerns over how United States monetary policy changes would impact performance were also heeded, these extending beyond Bitcoin to risk assets more broadly.5/ A hawkish Fed and monetary policy is approaching. This would be catastrophic for high-risk asset classes.— 창이 (@4adybug) March 29, 2022

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin hits 2022 high as analyst gives new $80K BTC price target

Bitcoin (BTC) gave $48,000 a second grilling on March 29 after a modest overnight correction provided welcome respite from upside.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewTrader has “strong doubts” over crash below $30,000Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it dipped to local lows of $46,900 before returning to crack $48,000 prior to Tuesday’s Wall Street open.The pair maintained support at the yearly open even while consolidating, fueling hopes that the 2022 trading range had been truly broken.Now, while acknowledging the need for a further pullback in an ideal scenario, popular trader Crypto Ed said that the time was right to be “very bullish” on BTC going forward.”Hope for a little bit more down today, but often in these kind of bull markets it’s too much asking for,” he said in his latest YouTube update.Zooming out, Ed eyed an ongoing construction in place since the lows of Summer last year. While these could technically still reappear, there were “strong doubts” about such a situation, and should the bullish follow-through occur, the target for completion was beyond current all-time highs.”That gives me a target of around $80,000,” he concluded.No signs of an intraday pullback were visible at the time of writing, meanwhile, as Bitcoin bulls fought for $48,000 support.The supertrend is your friendThe hunt for trend confirmations was truly on among traders Tuesday, cemented by the push out of the range ceiling.Related: Bitcoin a ‘nice buy’ at $47K despite macro dangers as key trendline nears — ResearchFor analyst Matthew Hyland, it was Bitcoin’s supertrend indicator on the three-day chart worth taking notice of.Supertrend indicators use price range and volatility data to discern when an asset is in an up or downtrend. They give the signal once a trend has already started, and are thus useful confirmation devices if used correctly.Bitcoin has been sideways ranging for all of 2022, and its comedown from all-time highs sparked a three-day chart supertrend bear flag in early December.”The Bitcoin 3-Day Supertrend is VERY close to flipping bullish!” Hyland announced. “We have been waiting since the start of December to see this flash green.”To follow through, BTC/USD would need to hit and close above $49,000 on the three-day chart, he added.Bitcoin supertrend chart. Source: Matthew Hyland/ Twitter

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Bitcoin a 'nice buy' at $47K despite macro dangers as key trendline nears — Research

Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to reclaim a key long-term moving average, but the time to buy is before, not after, one metric hints.In a series of tweets on March 29, on-chain monitoring resource Ecoinometrics eyed a classic entry for BTC/USD as flagged by the Mayer Multiple.Mayer Multiple nears pivotBitcoin price strength has endured as the week gets underway, the largest cryptocurrency putting in its highest levels of 2022 overnight.Some key moving averages have also fallen to bulls, and while the trend is not yet definitive, optimism is increasing that Bitcoin could even challenge November’s all-time highs based on that fact.Next in line, meanwhile, is the 200-day moving average (DMA), currently at $48,300 and just tapped in the past 24 hours. The 200DMA is a key component of the Mayer Multiple metric, which measures spot price ratio to it in order to determine potential profitable market entry points.A score below 2.4 on the Multiple tends to signal good long-term rewards for investors. Having bottomed in January at around 0.76, its trend has reversed since, and as of Tuesday — almost right at the 200MA — Bitcoin has a Mayer Multiple score of 0.98.”That’s a good time to buy,” Ecoinometrics argued in comments, adding that even if a breakout from the 200DMA ends up being a bull trap, losses in such situations have historically been “small.””So even though the macro backdrop isn’t looking good, this is a buy,” a further post continued. “When it comes to these strategies with asymmetric returns you have to be systematic.”Bitcoin Mayer Multiple chart (screenshot). Source: BuyBitcoinWorldwideDerivatives lose their speculative tingeThose macro tensions, which include inflation and central banks’ attempts to fight it with monetary policy tightening, remain a key topic of debate this month.Related: Buy pressure ‘in bull market territory’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekAs Cointelegraph reported, multiple analysts have warned that the outlook could still turn firmly against Bitcoin and risk assets more broadly as rates rise and a “stagflationary” environment emerges.The sense that a sustained rally in BTC cannot possibly form the new paradigm is evident among professional traders, as derivatives markets funding rates remain flat despite weekly gains approaching 20% for BTC/USD.”Excessive long biased derivative market speculation is near non-existent currently,” analyst Dylan LeClair noted in a Twitter thread on the topic Monday.Displayed below are annualized perpetual future funding rates (24 hour MA).Traders were paying ~100% annualized to go long $BTC early in 2021. A similar but less severe speculative market arose in the fall. Today? Funding has been flat/negative for most all of 2022.2/3 pic.twitter.com/lliXS72hrR— Dylan LeClair (@DylanLeClair_) March 28, 2022The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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