Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) is at a “pivotal” point and faces macro forces that could influence it for “months to come,” fresh research says.In its latest market update on April 8, trading suite Decentrader called for more attention to Bitcoin’s “yearly pivot” price.All eyes on the yearly pivotAfter giving $43,000 support two retests this month, Bitcoin has punctured market sentiment, having reversed direction near $50,000.The move below $46,200 — the opening price for 2022 — was particularly hard to swallow, as it had marked the BTC price resistance ceiling since Jan. 1.As lower levels get revisited, calls for $40,000 or even lower are emerging, but for Decentrader, the zone for bulls to hold is already here. This comes in the form of the yearly pivot, a price level that in 2022 lies at around $43,500 — right by April 8’s spot price.“Bitcoin was rejected off the Yearly Pivot, a level which has not been broken in either of the last 4-year cycle bear markets,” analyst Filbfilb explained. “This, although highly probable, was a disappointment for the bulls, which had an injection of hopium, having broken the major weekly support/resistance level of circa $43 thousand.”BTC/USD chart with yearly pivots marked (screenshot). Source: DecentraderShould the current scenario truly represent a “bear market” phase for BTC/USD, a close above the pivot, notably on higher timeframes, would not only be bullish but a historically unusual event.“A break above the yearly pivot would be a break from the 4-year cycle norm and could suggest that Bitcoin will be on the way to significantly higher prices, but for the immediate term, the weekly level needs to be supported by the bulls, to avoid dropping back into consolidation,” Filbfilb added.Liquidity stacks upLooking beyond the pivot, the coming months seem firmly tied to central bank policy as inflation bites and steps to combat it intensify.Related: Bitcoin plumbs April lows as US dollar strength hits highest since May 2020The United States Federal Reserve’s balance sheet reductions are likely to pressure stocks and risk assets, analysts agree, with Bitcoin thus standing to lose appeal.Filbfilb agreed on these powerful headwinds, arguing that the Fed’s action could influence BTC price action “for months to come.”How low Bitcoin could go, however, may well depend on liquidity grabs. Sentiment, shown via derivatives funding rates, continues to favor the upside despite the spot price action weakening, raising the chances of a liquidation cascade downwards.This week already saw the largest long liquidation episode since January, data from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass shows.Crypto liquidations chart. Source: CoinglassLiquidity both above and below the spot price means that the potential for a squeeze in either direction remains high, Filbfilb wrote, with the potential upside target still north of $50,000.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) may track sideways for another two years before reigniting its bull run, new data argues.In a tweet on April 6, veteran trader Peter Brandt highlighted historical patterns suggesting that hodlers will have to wait until 2024 for their next moonshot.8 months down, 25 to go?Bitcoin has surprised analysts with its performance over the past year, as the highly anticipated “blow-off” top in Q4 2021 was much lower than expected.After BTC/USD lost over 50% of those modest new all-time highs, the debate around the relationship of price to Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycles changed.The market, as Cointelegraph reported, was used to a macro price top coming once per four-year cycle, specifically the year after each of Bitcoin’s block subsidy halving events.Now, however, price action is less predictable, and while the factors controlling it are many and varied, it does not necessarily mean that bulls will get their break at a different point in the current cycle.Brandt’s data shows that the next impulse wave for Bitcoin may not be until May 2024 — which almost exactly lines up with the next block subsidy halving.Historically, this would be a year too early for a blow-off top, but could still deliver a 10X price increase based on historical patterns which go beyond halving cycles.”The past two times BTC advanced 10X or more required an average of 33 months before the next stage of the rocket kicked in,” Brandt explained. “If history repeats itself (which I do not believe it will), the next rocket stage will be ignited in May 2024.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Peter Brandt/ TwitterOne step at a timeIn terms of what could keep Bitcoin suppressed until then, analysts have pointed the finger overwhelmingly at macro triggers.Related: Bitcoin slides below $44K in April first as trader warns ‘something is off’ with BTCCentral bank tightening, if successful, should logically pressure risk assets, while a prolonged period of high inflation and low interest rates likewise paints a gloomy picture for Bitcoin — at least in the short term.Further out, the status quo could change once the initial shock of these events subsides. Both Arthur Hayes, ex-CEO of exchange BitMEX, and Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone are conspicuously more confident about Bitcoin on longer timeframes than in the coming months.”BTC is a risk-on safehaven. Gold is a risk-off safehaven. Bitcoin as an untested theoretical safehaven, this year will be the first proper market test of it,” statistican Willy Woo forecast in February about the 2022 outlook. “In a war time scenario, risk-off is the first market response, the second market response is towards safehavens.”The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.