Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Weaker dollar lifts Bitcoin to $30.7K as analyst eyes 60% BTC dominance

Bitcoin (BTC) hit 48-hour highs overnight into May 20 as U.S. dollar weakness gave bulls some much-needed respite.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewDollar strength declines after 20-year recordData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView recorded a high of $30,725 for BTC/USD on Bitstamp.Still struggling to flip $30,000 to reliable support, the pair nonetheless avoided a deeper retracement, helping calm fears that last week’s $23,800 capitulation event did not mark the bottom.The U.S. dollar index (DXY) provided the background to Bitcoin’s relatively solid performance, this coming off two-decade highs to dip 2% in a week.This appeared to relieve some pressure on stock markets, the S&P 500 finishing May 19 down a more modest 0.58% compared to previously in the week, the Nasdaq 100 less. U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewWhile treading water more than 50% below its all-time highs, the largest cryptocurrency had punished latecomers to the market, one analyst noted.“Today, newbies who joined last year are in -34% loss,” Ki Young Ju, CEO of analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in a series of tweets on the day.Ki highlighted a chart of bands of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) showing the age of investments. Those who had only experienced one “bear cycle” before were now down 39%, he concluded, while older coins were still in profit.“So here’s hopium for bears. If $BTC crashed so hard due to the macro crisis and all Bitcoiner institutions go underwater, it could go $14k based on historical MDD,” he added.As Cointelegraph reported, multiple predictions of a major BTC price retracement, some under $14,000, continue to circulate.Altcoins roll overMeanwhile, attention focused on Bitcoin’s increasing market presence over altcoins.Related: Bitcoin must defend these price levels to avoid ‘much deeper’ fall: AnalysisAfter the Terra LUNA debacle, the mood had turned cold outside BTC, and now, signs were there that alts could cede dominance rapidly.At 44.8%, Bitcoin’s share of the overall cryptocurrency market cap was at its highest since October 2021 at the time of writing.“We could see dominance rally all the way back to 60%,” popular Twitter account IncomeSharks forecast.“This is why you need to be cautious on alts and trade them with tight stops. There’s a good chance we could see money leave alts and start going back to BTC.”60% BTC market dominance would represent a level not seen since March last year. “Most alts I’ve been watching haven’t been able to break their H4 trends despite yesterday’s move on BTC,” fellow popular analyst Pierre warned. “Would still expect most of them to die twice harder if btc was to remain stuck within this same range, or resolve to the downside.” Bitcoin dominance 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin must defend these price levels to avoid 'much deeper' fall: Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) may be attempting to flip $30,000 to support on May 19, but for one group of analysts, attention is focused firmly on a fresh drop.In a tweet on the day, on-chain monitoring resource Whalemap defined the support levels Bitcoin bulls must defend in order to avoid fresh significant losses.Whales dictate “do or die” BTC price supportBitcoin’s current “no man’s land” price behavior has commentators split on whether the next decisive move will be up or down.While some are calling for $32,000 or more next, many argue that last week’s trip to $23,800 was not the lowest that BTC/USD will manage going forward.For Whalemap, which analyzes the buying and selling of Bitcoin’s biggest investors, the zone to watch is around $24,000 to $26,000.This is where larger groups of whales deployed funds, and their presence thus provides considerable on-chain support.Should sell pressure unravel the zone, the results could be a “much deeper” retracement, Whalemap analysts warn, describing the whale support levels as “do or die.”Lets keep it simpleDo or die supports for #Bitcoin right now are:$26,439$25,666$24,718$24,673This or we going much deeper pic.twitter.com/h6PEHL2HDz— whalemap (@whale_map) May 19, 2022In a separate post, however, Whalemap noted that with realized losses now dwarfing gains, Bitcoin could yet be in for a price turnaround.”2 times more losses than profits were transacted on-chain in the last couple of days,” it commented on May 18. “Last times this happened $BTC had a rally up. Lets see what happens this time.”BTC/USD moving profit/ loss (MPL) annotated chart. Source: Whalemap/ TwitterPreviously, Cointelegraph reported on mounting overall Bitcoin realized losses, these reaching their second-highest daily levels ever last week.Report predicts “rocky road” aheadAt the time of writing, BTC/USD traded at around $29,400 amid an attempt to crack 24-hour highs.Related: Price analysis 5/18: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, AVAX, SHIBThe Wall Street open was primed to unsettle the market once again, however, following the May 18 session which saw considerable sell-side pressure across equities which then spilled over into crypto.Given that last week’s ten-month lows coincided with Bitcoin’s overall on-chain realized price, meanwhile, interest remains strong as to whether this fact in and of itself will be enough to prevent the market from a new level of capitulation.”It remains to be seen if a full return to the Realized Price is required to put this bear market to rest, and if so whether it is for months, weeks, days or just a short a moment,” on-chain analytics firm Glassnode concluded in the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” released on May 16. “Perhaps those days are behind us if the accumulation we observed is indicative of the support the bulls are willing to put up in the $20ks range. Note also, there remains a plethora of macro, inflationary and monetary policy forces acting as headwinds. The road ahead will likely continue to be a rocky one.”Bitcoin realized price chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoinThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin trades in $29K 'no man's land' as Tesla ESG fallout routs stocks

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed $1,000 lower on May 19 after a grim trading session on Wall Street the day before put pay to further upside.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewMusk blasts ESG “scam” after S&P 500 exitData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling $29,000 at the time of writing, having bounced at $28,600 on Bitstamp.The pair had declined in step with United States equities, with the S&P 500 particularly in focus as it set its largest intraday decline since June 2020.Drama over Tesla, which was removed from the index amid ongoing controversy, fuelled the poor performance.The firm’s CEO, Elon Musk, publicly rebuked those behind the decision, which appeared tied to adherence to so-called Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria.”ESG is a scam. It has been weaponized by phony social justice warriors,” part of a Twitter response read.Further proof that ESG is a scam.Tesla (a literal EV company) is also invested in Bitcoin, the most powerful “S” holding one can have, something that boosts financial powers for tens of millions of people worldwide under authoritarian regimes and emerging markets https://t.co/g2cRc4Tows— Alex Gladstein ⚡ (@gladstein) May 19, 2022Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of investment giant Ark Invest, called the decision to exclude Tesla “ridiculous” and “not worthy of any other response.”As counter-inflation measures begin to bite, the outlook for risk assets was at best one of “consolidation” in the months ahead, some argued.Popular trading account CredibleCrypto agreed that Bitcoin was copying behavior exhibited by the S&P 500 during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.Do you remember the sentiment in ’08 when the housing bubble popped? Do you remember the stock market crash of ’08 and the subsequent recovery? Range highs taken, range lows taken, deviations, expanded flat, whatever you want to call it- we have seen it before. $BTC https://t.co/CmQ6a031Pg— CrediBULL Crypto (05.27) (@CredibleCrypto) May 19, 2022

While bond markets could notionally benefit from financial tightening by central banks worldwide, little faith remained in their investment premise among pro-Bitcoin sources. Analyst Dylan LeClair, highlighting readings from Vanguard’s Total Bond Market exchange-traded fund (ETF), called it the “global everything bubble collapsing in real time.””It’s going to get crazier,” he added on the day.Outside crypto, as Cointelegraph reported, markets commentator Holger Zschaepitz frequently refers to the situation as the “biggest bond bubble in 800 years.”Concerns remain over fresh Bitcoin macro lowReturning to shorter timeframes for Bitcoin, the prognosis remained focused on potential moves above $30,000 before a deeper correction sets in.Related: First 7-week losing streak in history ― 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week”Probably some momentum towards $29.7K possible. Question whether we can hold $29.3K for continuation, but overall I’m still expecting a HL to be happening on Bitcoin in which we continue towards $32.8K/$34K,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe told Twitter followers overnight.Fellow trader Crypto Tony meanwhile reiterated his thesis that BTC/USD did not in fact bottom during last week’s tip to $23,800 and that a more substantial “capitulation” was due.I am going to be sharing some quantitive charts and analysis soon to back up why i do not think capitulation has not happened yet Many believe it has happened already, but it is important to see what it looks like and actually means — Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) May 19, 2022

An additional post described the day’s BTC price action so far as being in “no man’s land.”The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin price drops under $29K as Walmart, Target stock lose most since 1987

Bitcoin (BTC) headed toward an “interesting” liquidity area on May 18 as United States stock markets opened with a bearish bang.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBTC price nears “interesting” rematch with lowsData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it broke through the $29,000 support after the Wall Street open.U.S. markets saw a swift reversal of prior gains on the day, with the S&P 500 down 2% and the Nasdaq 100 down 2.3% within the first hour of trading.The big surprise, however, came from grocery giants Walmart and Target, both of which saw the biggest intraday declines since the weeks prior to the 1987 “Black Monday” market crash.At the time of writing, WMT was down over 15% in five trading days, while TGT was nearing 25%. Both had come after reported of deteriorating earnings amid a squeeze on consumer spending from inflation.”Bear market rallies can last weeks or just a few days. The combo Walmart/Target bombs indicate the U.S. consumer might not be as healthy as thought. The 3-day rally could be over,” Fred Hickey, editor of The High-Tech Strategist, told Twitter followers on the day.As standard, BTC declined with the indices to threaten a break below $29,000 toward an area of liquidity which represented the daily closes from last week’s drop which had seen spikes below $24,000.”Looks like a clean breakdown to me. Price action has been choppy but we should at least sweep the lows,” popular trader and analyst Nebraskan Gooner tweeted in his latest update. “Lows break and we probably see $22K. Lows hold and we can break back above $30K.”Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe agreed, descrbing the area at around $28,400 as “interesting.”#Bitcoin is making that dropdown and the low has been swept. An interesting area for me, the next one is around $28.4K. pic.twitter.com/FnEqJ6mz73— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 18, 2022Fellow longstanding social media trading presence Josh Rager hoped for a bounce at the key level to take Bitcoin higher once more.”Many times these compressions break one way for a fakeout and then reverse,” he tweeted regarding declining volatility potentially now resulting in a price move. “Would love to see $BTC break down, get shorts off sides, and move up. Not certain this happens at all but would be a great set up.”A subsequent post confirmed that BTC/USD was moving according to plan.Related: Aave price risks a 25% plunge as a classic bearish reversal pattern emergesAltcoins risk 90% “standard bear market correction”On altcoins, losses began to mount faster as Bitcoin abandoned any short-term bullish signals.Out of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap, Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) were the worst performers, with daily losses near 8%.Ethereum (ETH) lost $2,000 support and headed towards its lowest levels since the May 12 cross-crypto capitulation.”Altcoins have retraced a lot. But previous bear markets suggest they could go lower,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned on the day. “If BTC loses its Macro Range Low, that would confirm more downside in the Crypto market. Which could enable Altcoins to follow their standard Bear Market correction of over -90%.”ETH/USD 1-hour candle chart (Binance). Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin shakes of Fed volatility as analysts remain split on return under $24K

Bitcoin (BTC) circled $30,000 on May 18 after fresh comments from the United States Federal Reserve sparked n volatility.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewAnalyst: Extra Fed rate hikes “biggest risk”Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD consolidating within a range in place since May 12.The pair had come unstuck as Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered economic policy insights during the Wall Street Journal’s Future of Everything Festival.”I don’t know if financial conditions have tightened more than this in a very long time,” he told the paper’s chief economics correspondent, Nick Timiraos, in an interview. Powell appeared to confirm that 50-basis-point key interest rate hikes would continue in subsequent meetings of the Fed’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) and could reach “neutral” levels in Q4. Hikes afterward, however, could nonetheless continue if necessary to tame inflation further.With traditional markets already pricing in such a scenario, volatility overall was limited as Powell avoided surprises.BTC/USD saw a brief drop to $29,500 before recovering during Powell’s words.With risk assets set for difficult times as financial tightening continues, however, crypto market commentators had little by way of highly bullish news.”Hawkish reminder. This is the biggest risk for markets,” macro analyst Alex Krueger responded in a series of Twitter posts on the potential for ongoing rate hikes into next year:“Every Fed official has a different view of what ‘neutral’ is. Estimates are in the 2% to 3% range. Futures markets have now 3.25% priced in by December.”According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets expect the target rate to be between 275 and 300 basis points at the FOMC’s December meeting.Target rate expectations for December 2022 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group$33,000 “makes sense” nextShort term, some saw continued relief for BTC.Related: Fear & Greed Index hits lowest since March 2020 even as Bitcoin price hits $30.5K“Did manage a nice close above the $28.8K range low as well as the $30K low which marked the initial wick down in May 2021. The next HTF resistance is the $33K area. A test of that area makes sense imo,” popular trading account Daan Crypto Trades summarized in his latest Bitcoin-focused update.Fellow account DonAlt meanwhile highlighted $34,500 as a crucial breaker for a more bullish perspective on BTC to enter.$BTCThis is what I’m looking at, we reclaim $34.5k and I think there is good reason to be bullish towards at least $44k.While we’re below $34.5k beartarding is allowed, above there less so. pic.twitter.com/CzLY89rPAa— DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) May 17, 2022An increasing number of players, as Cointelegraph reported, still favor a return below the $23,800 lows seen last week at the height of the Terra LUNA and TerraUSD (UST) implosions.“Bottoms take time to form, so do not expect it within the next day or two,” trader Crypto Tony told Twitter followers on the day. “Likely we will find support, bounce for some relief and to trap late shorts and continue the trend.”Others, meanwhile, feel that a $20,000 retreat is unlikely.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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