Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) threatened to continue an unprecedented losing streak on May 29 as BTC/USD stayed in a right intraday range.BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewStocks correlation offers no comfort to BTC bullsData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView flagged the largest cryptocurrency heading for nine weeks of downtrend in a row — the most in history.Already at a dubious record, Bitcoin’s weekly chart closes provided the backdrop to weakness that continued to disappoint analysts over the weekend.Even stock markets, troubled by central bank tightening, managed to put in gains over the week, while Bitcoin and the majority of altcoins added to losses.”Most concerning has been the divergence between Equities and Crypto. S&P and NASDAQ have traded about 10% higher since 20 May lows while both BTC and ETH have traded lower in the same period,” trading firm QCP Capital wrote to subscribers of its markets newsletter, the latest edition of which was released on May 29. “This is not the direction of decoupling we were hoping for!”QCP echoed existing sentiment over Bitcoin’s underperformance compared to previously highly-correlated equities.Continuing, popular Twitter account Il Capo of Crypto forecast fresh pressure thanks to those indices now encountering sellside friction of their own.”Last time SPX rallied making a new high while $BTC was making lower highs, we saw bearish continuation once SPX reversed. Now SPX is at resistance,” a post on the day read.Bitcoin faces the “darling dips of May”With that, BTC/USD was primed to end the month down around 22%. Related: Small Bitcoin whales may be keeping BTC price from ‘capitulation’ — analysisThis would make May 2022 the second worst May in Bitcoin’s history, data from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass confirmed.BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: CoinglassAnalysis of downtrends over time meanwhile revealed that the current descent from highs was the fourth-longest ever, now at 200 days.Noted by analyst Matthew Hyland, the longest-ever such downtrend occurred in 2014-15 and lasted more than twice as long.#Bitcoin is currently in its 4th longest downtrend in its entire history: pic.twitter.com/bnT8uXIOsb— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) May 29, 2022As Cointelegraph further reported, historical patterns dictate that a period of sideways price action could now continue, followed only later a capitulation event and macro bottom.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) clung to $29,000 at the May 27 Wall Street open as crucial support levels lay just hundreds of dollars from spot price.BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewTrader demands higher low above $28,000Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed volatility once again waning in a frustrating week’s price action.BTC/USD found itself in a tight corridor on the day, and for Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, it would not take much deviation to disrupt the status quo.”Technically speaking, when it comes to Bitcoin, you clearly want to see a higher low happening here, and if that we happens, we can start seeing continuation,” he said in his latest YouTube update.Levels to hold now were nearby — $28,600 and $28,200 in order to avoid a rematch of the week’s $28,000 low and risk giving up the chance of a higher low construction.”If that is lost, then I’m going to expect ourselves to get towards $26,000 as then we’re going to start cascading south even more,” he concluded.Equally wary was commentator Bob Loukas, who eyed the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator on the day to warn of potential incoming upset.$BTC – Weak and not a good look there, no urgency, with that primary trend lower. Should have seen at least a rally early in the cycle, coming of some capitulation. Stay safe. pic.twitter.com/fYfZka2R1C— Bob Loukas (@BobLoukas) May 27, 2022Across social media, the sense that a capitulatory move was coming for crypto prevailed, this having characterized sentiment throughout recent weeks.In-profit supply favors bearsMeanwhile, looking at the network as a whole fueled concerns that current prices could not endure.Related: Small Bitcoin whales may be keeping BTC price from ‘capitulation’ — analysisAnalyzing the percentage of the supply in profit, Kripto Mevsimi, a contributing analyst at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, drew bearish conclusions.Currently, around 55% of the supply was in profit, he explained, and compared to historical behavior, more price capitulation should enter in order to provide some guarantee of a macro bottom.First, however, there should be a sideways period for BTC/USD which precedes the final dip. This would make current price performance chime with the 2018 bear market and the March 2020 crash.”Next; 2-3 months of boring price action. Then last capitulation possible with %30-%50 additional price drop,” he summarized.An accompanying chart compared the three phases beginning with the 2017 high of $20,000.Bitcoin supply in profit vs. BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: CryptoQuantThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered from a major dip at the May 26 Wall Street open as the market quickly exhausted buy support. BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin volume surges with more expectedData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dropping to $28,000 on Bitstamp — its lowest since May 12 and the Terra LUNA implosion. Progress had already accelerated to the downside on the day, this culminating in a liquidity grab that sent 24-hour BTC liquidations to $117 million.BTC liquidations chart. Source: CoinglassA subsequent bounce saw a recovery above $29,000, where Bitcoin traded at the time of writing.For Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, the swoop to fill bids was enough to ensure some fresh upside.Now we’re good to go up as all the liquidity is taken on the downside. Let’s go!— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) May 26, 2022He added that his existing targets for BTC/USD — $32,800 and $35,000 — remained in force.Analyzing order book data, meanwhile, on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators warned that given the thin liquidity remaining at lower levels, a future dip could encounter less resistance.”We are seeing A LOT of Bitcoin liquidity changing hands today. Everywhere a bid wall appears, it gets absorbed,” it told Twitter followers alongside a chart from major exchange Binance. “Currently there are no more huge bid walls and there is only ~$122M between $28k – $25k. Expecting to see more BTC move on chain.”BTC/USD order book chart (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ TwitterFellow trading account Il Capo of Crypto, continuing a conservative outlook on near-term price action, predicted that the current bounce would be the “last bull trap” before a return to $25,000 based on order book performance.May 26 thus stood out from other trading days during the week, thanks to volume returning to BTC/USD markets. As Cointelegraph reported, its absence was becoming a source of concern for analysts.Bitcoin’s “most important chart” gives hope of recoveryCasting the net farther out, market commentators were keen to see signs of an overall change in trend on Bitcoin.Related: Bitcoin price may bottom at $15.5K if it retests this lifetime historical support levelFor popular analyst Root, those signs came from the behavior of long-term holder (LTHs) on the day.According to on-chain data, LTHs were finally slowing sales of BTC, as shown by their cost basis leveling out. Cost basis refers to the price at which LTH accounts purchased BTC on aggregate, and when it falls, it reflects declining LTH resolve.Commenting in Twitter thread, Root described the data as “perhaps the most important chart in BTC currently.” “For the past months, we’ve had LTH capitulation ⁠— shown by the rapidly falling LTH Cost Basis,” it wrote. “An uptick is a first sign that LTH’s might have stopped capitulating! Note: early signal, but finally a change in trend!”He added that those LTH entities selling were those who purchased BTC at the top and that the sales thus had a capitulatory quality to them.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.