Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed wedged in a tight range on June 4 as traders’ demands for a new macro low persisted.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewLong-term holders begin ‘distribution’Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD stuck between $29,000 and $30,000 into the weekend.The pair had managed a revival to near $31,000 the previous day, but the last Wall Street trading session of the week put pay to bulls’ efforts.As “out-of-hours” markets offered thin volumes but little volatility, eyes were on the potential direction of what would be an inevitable breakout.”The weekly chart on Bitcoin looks nothing short of horrific and so the trend continuation remains. I do think we consolidate a little longer in this range before dropping eventually,” Crypto Tony announced on the day in part of a series of tweets.A further post reiterated a target of between $22,000 and $24,000 for Bitcoin once that forecast drop took hold.”I am looking for another drop down to $24000 – $22000, but of course distribution takes time. So we may be hovering around this support zones before any drops just yet,” it read.Others planned to make the most of incoming weakness, including popular Twitter account Cryptotoad, which announced a strategy of accumulating at $27,000 and under in what would be a “swing low” for BTC/USD.$btcI don’t know what you’re gonna do, but My plan is to start accumulating my long term position at 27k swing low all the way down to the 0.382 fib at 21.5k. #btc #bitcoin pic.twitter.com/JCdHv0pMdr— Cryptotoad (@Mesawine1) June 4, 2022As Cointelegraph reported, other sources keenly eyeing lower lows for Bitcoin range from on-chain analysts to well-known pundits such as ex-BitMEX CEO, Arthur Hayes.Adding fuel to the fire was data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, which signaled that long-term holders were starting to divest themselves of their stash in a classic bear market move.”Long-term holders capitulation phase has begun,” contributing analyst Edris summarized in one the site’s QuickTake market updates released on June 3.Commenting on a chart of long-term holders’ Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), Edris drew comparisons to conditions that preceded generational bottoms in Bitcoin’s history. These included the 2014 and 2018 bear markets, as well as the COVID-19 cross-market crash of March 2020.”Currently, the long-term holders are entering the capitulation phase and are selling at a loss, indicating that the smart money accumulation phase has begun, and the next few months would present a great opportunity for long-term investing in the market,” the post read.It noted that such a capitulation event “usually marks a multi-year bottom.”Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR annotated chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantExchanges still see big buysIn a hint that some were already buying the dip, meanwhile, exchange data showed that outflows were beating inflows markedly in recent days.Related: Over 200K BTC now stored in Bitcoin ETFs and other institutional productsAccording to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, on June 3, netflows from major exchanges totaled -23,286 BTC, the most since May 14.Bitcoin exchange netflows chart. Source: GlassnodeDiscussing long-term holder behavior earlier in the week in the latest edition of its newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” Glassnode lead on-chain analyst Checkmate additionally delineated classes of investor currently least interested in selling.Specifcally, those who bought near the November 2021 all-time highs “appear to be relatively price insensitive,” he wrote, adding that the investor profile was increasingly composed of such stubborn hodlers. “Despite continued drawdowns in price, and a major spot liquidation event of 80k+ BTC, they remain unwilling to let their coins go,” he added.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered to $30,000 prior to the June 2 Wall Street open as cold feet remained across crypto markets.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView”Crucial breaker rejecting” on BitcoinData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD climbing to local highs of $30,182 on Bitstamp after wicking down to near $29,300 overnight.Amid testing times for equities, Bitcoin followed in giving up recent gains, with Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe insisting that $29,000 needed to hold to avoid more serious retracement.”Cascade further south for Bitcoin towards the level that caused the breakout,” he summarized on the day. “Resistances above us are $30.5K and $31.5K. Let’s see how it goes, has to hold $29.2–29.3K to avoid any massive breakdowns.”A subsequent tweet highlighted what Van de Poppe described as an intraday “crucial breaker” level acting as resistance.Crucial breaker for #Bitcoin rejecting. pic.twitter.com/vYdLUlNxyw— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 2, 2022Analyzing what had led Bitcoin to reverse downward, meanwhile, on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators pointed the finger at large-volume investors engineering volatility.”Large orders chased price to the top, then switched sides, alongside whales starting to market-sell. Now, some buying by $1M+ on support,” part of an explanatory Twitter post read.BTC/USD thus remained firmly in a narrow trading range in place since the second week of May.Positivity creeps in over BTC price floorMeanwhile, one of the industry’s best-known figures gave cause to consider that much deeper corrections may not be in store for Bitcoin.Related: Price analysis 6/1: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, AVAX, SHIBIn his latest blog post released on June 2, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, argued that last month’s bottom could well have been the bottom that everyone was looking for.He flagged data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which presented BTC/USD drawdowns from all-time highs over the years.Looking back at past halving cycles, there should be strong support at around $25,000 given that $69,000 marked the latest all-time high.”Don’t take these levels as an exact science. There could be an exchange that traded at a higher or lower intraday level than what’s observed on glassnode,” Hayes reasoned. “The point is to be generally correct, and with a bit of fudging around the edges we can approximate a range that corresponds to what we believe is the local bottom. For Bitcoin, that’s $25,000 to $27,000. For Ether, that’s $1,700 to $1,800.”BTC/USD drawdown from all-time highs annotated chart. Source: Arthur Hayes/ Entrepreneur’s HandbookAs Cointelegraph reported, however, the same data had been used earlier in the week to deliver a more bearish BTC price target.Hayes, himself, has said that he would be a “buyer” of Bitcoin at $20,000 and Ether (ETH) at $1,300.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.