Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

$30K BTC price has 'severe impact' on Bitcoin miner profits — analysis

$30K BTC price has 'severe impact' on Bitcoin miner profits — analysis

Uverejnil používateľ | jún 10, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) is squeezing its miners this month as suppressed prices threaten to impact profitability.The latest data shows both narrowing profit margins and miners waiting longer to recoup their initial investment.Miner production cost faces off with BTC priceWhile Bitcoin miners have largely held off on major distribution as BTC/USD descends from all-time highs, the picture now appears precarious.Calculations from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveal that miners’ production price — how much it costs to mine a single bitcoin — could be right where current spot price resides.While “raw” costs may be around $22,000 per BTC for miners in North America, which is home to the lion’s share of hashing power, additional costs could put the total at more like $30,000.“We estimate cost basis for bitcoin miners in North America around $22K per bitcoin mined. This estimate includes the direct cost of mining and S&A expenses. It does not include depreciation and amortization charges,” CryptoQuant senior analyst Julio Moreno confirmed to Cointelegraph in private comments.“If depreciation and amortization charges are included then the cost basis for mining bitcoin is at around $30K, basically at the same level as current bitcoin price.”Bitcoin miner exchange flows vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: CryptoQuantFears of a “capitulation” event among miners should spot price deteriorate remain a talking point. So far, however, only the May dip below $24,000 saw a noticeable reaction from the mining community.“Our data shows increasing bitcoin flows from miners to exchanges during March 2022 and then a sharp spike in flows during the first week of May. This is in line with bitcoin selling reported by some mining companies in Q1 2022,” Moreno added.In January, miners’ production cost appeared to be at around $34,000, separate data showed.Bitcoin miner ROI expands in May Continuing, mining firm Luxor’s Hashrate Index metric produced more interesting insights.Related: Bitcoin miners say NY ban will be ineffective and ‘isolate’ the stateThe Index, which shows the current price in USD per terahash (TH) according to ASIC miner efficiency, confirms that that cost area has been decreasing incrementally since December 2021.At the same time, findings by Twitter user @XBTJames show, the time taken for the average participant to enter profit by seeing return on investment (ROI) is expanding.ASIC pricing, measuring in USD-per-TH, has been coming off materially since late-2021, but pricing measured in static days-to-ROI (ASIC USD price-per-TH / USD daily revenue-per-TH [aka ‘hashprice’]) tells a different story. pic.twitter.com/uFx19GRa2w— XBT James (@XBTJames) May 27, 2022“Time to ROI has been increasing steadily since the ‘China Ban’ ASIC firesale last year. While USD pricing on ASICs has come down, the selloff in BTC and the increase in difficulty have combined to severely impact mining profitability,” the account explained in a series of tweets.XBTJames added that higher BTC prices would be needed to reduce the pain for miners, including new market players and those looking to expand their hashing capabilities.Bitcoin ASIC Price Index vs. BTC/USD chart (screenshot). Source: Hashrateindex.comThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin stocks correlation 'feels like' 100% as $30K BTC price frustrates

Bitcoin stocks correlation 'feels like' 100% as $30K BTC price frustrates

Uverejnil používateľ | jún 9, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) wicked through $30,000 during June 9 as the Wall Street open revealed an ongoing stocks correlation. BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewTrader sees “relief” from US CPI printData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD threatening to head lower as the S&P 500 likewise opened with modest losses.The pair had stayed in a tight range through June 8, this following episodes of volatility, which proved dangerous for long and short traders alike.”The correlation between the $SPX and $BTC is again close to 1, it feels like,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe tweeted on the day, summarizing the mood.United States jobless claims data had little impact on markets, with the main event in the form of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due June 10. Van de Poppe predicted that the readout, which covers the month of May, would not beat the April figure, this coming after data from Europe hinted that inflation was already slowing down.”Going into tomorrow; I think we’ll see the same from the U.S. which can benefit relief,” part of a further Twitter post read.Fellow trader and analyst Pentoshi, meanwhile, predicted that BTC/USD could run to as high as $35,000 before entering its next major corrective phase, once more based on stock market movements.While SPX has played out so far the lag on btc has been disappointing. Still feel we rally to 33-35 before new lows fwiw https://t.co/tuZ9Ah7zxd— Pentoshi Flightless Bird (@Pentosh1) June 9, 2022General sentiment, while low according to indicators, was one of frustration for seasoned market pundits.”Bitcoin recently purchased a beautiful yet affordable home at a low-interest rate for 30 years in a quiet town called 30K. It apparently has settled in and intends to live there forever,” analyst and podcast host Scott Melker, known as the “Wolf of All Streets,” reacted to the current trend.BTC/USD has focused on the $30,000 mark since May 9, its surrounding corridor broken only by the immediate aftermath of the Terra LUNA implosion.BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView2018 vs. 2020 for BTC price, says analystFocusing on whether the current range would break up or down, meanwhile, opinions still varied widely.Related: Bitcoin will finish 2022 ‘flat, possibly up’ says analyst as Saylor bets on $1M BTCWhile some had previously called for a dive to as low as $14,000 or worse, others remained convinced that May was more characteristic of a macro floor.Van de Poppe had previously described predictions of $12,000 as “insane.”Weighing the chances of either outcome, meanwhile, Twitter account Trader_J compared current price action to the 2018 bear market and cross-crypto crash of March 2020.”$BTC is currently in the Bottom position of 2020. I have already said that it is exactly 2020. Maybe that’s the Bottom,” he told followers. “If it’s a Bear Market, like 2014–2018. Then there will be another crash. 2020 vs Bear Market.”An accompanying chart showed Bitcoin’s Risk Metric, a tool devised by crypto quant analyst Benjamin Cowen, supporting the idea that lower levels were unlikely to enter.BTC/USD annotated chart with Risk Metric. Source: Trader_J/ TwitterThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin will finish 2022 ‘flat, possibly up’ says analyst as Saylor bets on $1M BTC

Bitcoin will finish 2022 ‘flat, possibly up’ says analyst as Saylor bets on $1M BTC

Uverejnil používateľ | jún 9, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) retains two of its best-known proponents but one has cooled his BTC price forecasts considerably.In an interview with CNBC on June 9, Tom Lee, co-founder of independent research firm Fundstrat, revealed he was unsure if BTC/USD would end the year above its starting price.Lee suggests market has “already bottomed”Bitcoin price projections for 2022 have plummeted as macro pressures combine with black swan events such as the Terra LUNA implosion to send sentiment to near record lows.While many argue that a capitulation event will enter in the coming months to send BTC/USD to $20,000 or under, Lee believes that underlying strength is worth paying attention to now.“It’s a risk-on asset, so I think to the extent that Nasdaq and Bitcoin rally, it’s helping us become more comfortable that the market’s already bottomed,” he told CNBC’s CB Overtime segment.At the same time, Lee brushed off the Terra debacle and redundancies at major crypto companies including United States exchange Coinbase, saying that Bitcoin was “acting far better than people expect.”Asked where BTC price action was headed by the start of 2023 — even if correlated stock markets put in gains — the response was less optimistic.“I think Bitcoin’s going to make its way to flat for the year, possibly up,” he concluded.Lee was previously famous for his bullish takes on Bitcoin, among which was a prediction of $200,000 for 2022 made shortly after the latest all-time high of $69,000 last November.Saylor on BTC: “If it’s not going to zero, it’s going to a million”Meanwhile, unapologetically bullish was MicroStrategy CEO, Michael Saylor, who his own comments to mainstream media firmly brushed aside any suggestion of permanent price downside.Related: BTC price gains 4% pre-Fed as MicroStrategy vows to protect Bitcoin from $21K crashThose who claimed that Bitcoin would be banned or go to zero, he told CNBC on June 8, had already been “discredited.”“If the deniers are wrong and the skeptics are wrong — and it’s pretty obvious they’re both wrong at this point — it’s not going to zero, and if it’s not going to zero, it’s going to a million,” Saylor forecast.While nothing new, Saylor being “very bullish on where we go from here” increasingly grates with the downbeat perspective on risk assets across the board in the new era of central bank monetary tightening.As Cointelegraph reported, some believe that it will take until the next block subsidy halving in 2024 for a meaningful price recovery to enter.Saylor meanwhile said that when it comes to buying more BTC for its existing reserves, there was no point in “timing the market.”“We’re kind of doing the equivalent of dollar cost averaging for a large corporation,” he explained.“We’re not trying to time the market; I think all the statistics on the S&P and on the Bitcoin index show you can’t time the market. We’re just reinvesting free cash flows in the market as circumstances allow us.”BTC/USD traded at around $30,500 at the time of writing on June 9, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.BTC/USD 1-day candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Wall Street sends BTC price to $30.8K as latest US dollar uptick fails

Wall Street sends BTC price to $30.8K as latest US dollar uptick fails

Uverejnil používateľ | jún 8, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) showed strength at the June 8 Wall Street open as impatient traders waited for a trend to emerge.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin still in “no trade zone” Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD jumping to near $30,850 after the opening bell, helping claw back some of the ground lost in an overnight correction.Choppy trading conditions prevailed within a familiar range on the day, however, leading to both long and short traders seeing increased risk on low timeframes.For popular trader Crypto Chase, this was a prime period for the transfer of value to “smart money” — away from small-volume speculators and those with “weak hands.”A prior Twitter post had argued for a hands-off approach until a decisive level had been breached.Little interest in $BTC until one of these levels is breached. At that point, we watch for either continuation or price to re-enter range. If re-enter range, I expect the other side to fail and continuation in that direction (as drawn). I tend to lean towards left most drawing. pic.twitter.com/d5JgsAM4LR— Crypto Chase (@Crypto_Chase) June 7, 2022Fellow trader Crypto Tony argued that $29,700 needed to hold as support for a further upward momentum to enter.“Simple playing field for Bitcoin,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe added. “Break through $31.5K = $32.8K and/or $35K. Support zones for longs probably $30K and $29.3K still. In between = no trade zone.”Stocks were flat at the time of writing, with 48 hours still to go until the latest United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) readout.Laying out the possible reactions from BTC/USD, Twitter account PlanC identified between 8% and 8.3% as having a “neutral” effect.This CPI print on June 10, will be very interesting. > 8.3%, short-term all markets tank (Bearish)8% – 8.3%, slight dump or pump (Neutral)< 8%, short-term all markets pump (Bullish)#Bitcoin #Crypto— Plan©️ (@TheRealPlanC) June 7, 2022Japanese yen losses contrast with weaker dollarElsewhere in macro, the poor performance of the Japanese yen versus the U.S. dollar was again on crypto commentators’ radar.Related: ‘Can it get any easier?’ Bitcoin whales dictate when to buy and sell BTCEven as the U.S. dollar index (DXY) failed to continue its rally above 20-year highs, USD/JPY reached levels not seen since the start of 2002.U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewBTC/USD traded in a more modest territory near local highs from before May’s crypto dip, still far from its record peak, as with the dollar seen in November 2021.BTC/JPY 1-day candle chart (Bitflyer). Source: TradingViewJapan’s central bank continues a policy of quantitative easing, in stark contrast to both the U.S. and European Union, both of which are aiming to reduce their central banks’ balance sheets.The third largest currency in the world is falling off a cliff vs. the USD.Make no mistake. This is the fate awaiting every fiat currency vs. the USD, and eventually the fate of the USD vs. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/vZkN6Uyl5e— Stack Hödler (@stackhodler) June 8, 2022“Turns out that the monetary experiment in Japan is not going too well,” analyst Jan Wüstenfeld responded.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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'Can it get any easier?' Bitcoin whales dictate when to buy and sell BTC

'Can it get any easier?' Bitcoin whales dictate when to buy and sell BTC

Uverejnil používateľ | jún 8, 2022 |

Bitcoin (BTC) left both long and short traders behind in May and June, but data suggests trading it may be “easier” than many imagine.According to on-chain analytics resource Whalemap, Bitcoin whales have all but dictated market performance in recent weeks.Whales help pin Bitcoin at $30,000In fresh analysis published on June 7, Whalemap researchers showed that BTC/USD local tops and bottoms have coincided with areas of heightened whale activity.When Bitcoin’s largest wallet entities choose to buy or sell, price reacts accordingly. For those looking to reduce risk trading short timeframes, it may thus suffice to act according to where popular whale levels lie.“Can it get easier than this?” Whalemap summarized in part of a Twitter post. Bitcoin whale wallet inflows annotated chart. Source: Whalemap/ TwitterAs Cointelegraph reported, some whales are of more interest than others. Over the past week, one such entity on Binance has been contributing to Bitcoin’s narrow trading range with a series of buys and sells.“This binance whale has marked every local top/bottom for the last two weeks,” popular analyst Credible Crypto added in new Twitter comments on June 8. “Been watching him come and go. Accumulating at the lows, capping price at the highs. Most recently filled 2,000 BTC (60 million) at the local lows at 29.2k before this pump we are seeing now.”That “pump,” just like that from earlier in the week, has been short lived, with BTC/USD plateauing then reversing, losing practically all the gains from its initial uptrend, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView”Annoying” stocks correlation keeps pressure on BTCZooming out beyond internal factors, meanwhile, optimism remains thin for inflationary macro conditions favoring crypto strength going forward.Related: BTC price snaps its longest losing streak in history — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekWhile whales keep prices rangebound, Bitcoin’s correlation to stock markets is also frustrating traders. The correlation with the stock markets is annoying.— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 7, 2022Stocks themselves are further unlikely to feel relief in the short term, commentator Bob Loukas admitted on June 7, as monetary tightening worldwide gathers pace.”Still don’t see macro catalyst (yet) for bottom in equities. As stated before has look of a cyclical bear market that needs more time,” he said.”Price action on Cycle front confirms, move down into summer months. Been underweight a while, happy to be wrong. Wont fomo a ripping rally.”The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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