Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) crept higher after the June 14 Wall Street open as analysts hoped that long-term support had been preserved.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewHopes for “relief” from FOMC meetingData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it traded above $22,500 at the time of writing, having hit local highs of $23,300 on the day.The pair had seen a strong bounce after nearing $20,800, with traditional markets likewise recovering after panic set in over United States inflation.Eyeing where Bitcoin could go next, on-chain analytics resource Material Indicators noted that the market had reclaimed the 200-day simple moving average (200 SMA), an important feature of Bitcoin bear markets that acted as support throughout previous price cycles.Nonetheless, it was “too early to tell” if the 200 SMA would continue to provide an attractive zone, a tweet stated, with the Federal Reserve due to provide inflation cues on June 15.#BTC just reclaimed the 200 Week MA. Some decent bid liquidity seen on #FireCharts, but too early to tell if it will hold. Expect all eyes to be on the #FOMC conference Wednesday. pic.twitter.com/OEV18iTSrD— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) June 14, 2022Keeping the Fed in mind were most crypto social media commentators, as expectations showed that the majority now favored an outsized rate hike next — 75 basis points instead of 50.Tomorrow’s FOMC expectations are weighted heavily towards extreme 150-175 bps rate hikes pic.twitter.com/l5EW64mnvP— CRYPTO₿IRB (@crypto_birb) June 14, 2022

“Currently the market gives a 96% probability that the Fed delivers a 75bps hike on Wednesday. The market had recently been pricing in a 50bps hike but last week’s hot inflation data changed that sentiment. (This time last week a 75bps hike was given ~4% chance of occurring),” popular Twitter account @tedtalksmacro wrote in one of a series of tweets on the day.He added that a 50-point rise would mean both stocks and crypto “should rally really hard,” while volatility was slated to mimic a “sell the rumor, buy the news” event.”Maybe they provide some relief,” Decentrader co-founder Filbfilb agreed in his own post.Time to buy, says metric in green for first time since $3,600Meanwhile, excitement was brewing over an on-chain metric reaching the “buy” zone for the first time since March 2020.Related: ‘Nothing issue’ — MicroStrategy CEO plans to hodl Bitcoin ‘through adversity’The MVRV-Z score, an expression of how many standard deviations spot price is away from realized price, returned to negative territory as BTC/USD dived under $23,400.MVRV-Z has historically caught the generation price bottoms of Bitcoin, and buying in its green zone has thus resulted in significant returns.Cointelegraph reported on the significance of Bitcoin’s realized price earlier in the week.Bitcoin MVRV-Z score chart. Source: GlassnodeThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at its lowest since mid-December 2020 on June 13, but the bottom could be anywhere.As the weekend sell-off intensifies, BTC/USD has now broken below its realized price for the first time since March 2020, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.Bitcoin clings to realized priceAt around $23,400, the realized price — the average price at which each BTC last moved — is acting as the first solid support so far on lower timeframes.Bitcoin realized price vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: GlassnodePrevious levels, including those highlighted as potential bottoms, have failed to hold, and sentiment continues to favor further sell-side pressure thanks to the Celsius aftermath, inflation and forthcoming actions by the United States Federal Reserve.Where BTC/USD could put in a final macro floor, meanwhile, is now a topic of heated debate.The first port of call for a significant drawdown is the 200-week simple moving average (200 SMA), traders and analysts agree.At $22,370 as of June 13, the 200 SMA has acted as key support throughout Bitcoin’s lifetime, with only brief wicks below it marking generational spot price bottoms. The 200 SMA has never broken its own uptrend, and the hope is that reaching it will allow bulls a period of respite.BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 200 SMA. Source: TradingView”People are looking to buy there, it’s going to bounce more than likely at that area,” Josh Rager argued in a dedicated video update on the day.While describing the bounce at the 200 SMA as a “self-fulfilling prophecy,” thanks to the scope of interest in it, he warned that there was a guarantee that BTC/USD would not continue south this time around.This is thanks to historical precedent, which shows Bitcoin bottoming out up to 84% below its latest all-time high. At $69,000, such a bottom would thus lie at just $11,000.”That would be detrimental; I don’t think the price drops that low, I mean you’re basically looking at a full retrace of the entire bull market and we have never seen that,” Rager continued.Instead, areas of interest are the 2017 all-time high around $20,000, as well as the area immediately below, extending to $17,000. Also worth paying attention to is $14,000, equating to an 80% retracement from the current all-time highs, he added.As Cointelegraph reported, several of those levels have already been underscored by others as potential bottoms, among them by trader and analyst Rekt Capital.In a series of tweets on June 13, the significance of the 200 SMA again came into play. Historically, #BTC tends to wick -14% to -28% below the 200-week MAA -14% wick this time around would translate to a ~$19000 $BTCA -28% wick would mean BTC could reach as low as ~$15500 before reversing to the upside#Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/j9tal7ZSt0— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 13, 2022Fed becomes bulls’ last chance saloonAt the time of writing, meanwhile, BTC/USD had managed to avoid a fresh dive in line with U.S. equities markets.Related: Lowest weekly close since December 2020 — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekThe S&P 500, by contrast, lost down 3% within the first hour of trading, while the Nasdaq Composite Index shed 3.6%.To halt crypto’s decline, some claim only the Fed can step in, reversing monetary tightening as rising interest rates throttle growth.”Realize how little this crypto dump has to do with Celsius and the stETH drama and all to do with the widespread panic in risk assets (equities and crypto alike) and broken charts,” economist, trader and entrepreneur Alex Krueger told Twitter followers on the day, brushing aside the Celsius news.A further post read:”This is just my opinion, I’m often wrong. My guesstimate is Celsius added 1.2x to the fuel. Everybody making it about Celsius. Watch the media tomorrow. But without Friday’s CPI numbers and equities collapsing this would not have happened.”Nonetheless, illusions were few and far between for longtime Bitcoin market participants. Should BTC/USD drop below $20,000, it would be the first time ever that a previous halving cycle’s all-time high would be crossed.#Fed FOMC starts tomorrow. Chances of 50 bps vs 75 bps hike. pic.twitter.com/ftdQ9ZpmcL— Ansel Lindner (@AnselLindner) June 13, 2022

“Without a Fed pivot, I expect this will be the first cycle Bitcoin drops below the prior cycles’ all-time high,” Charles Edwards, CEO of asset manager Capriole, concluded.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.