Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to $79,000 on Friday after key US inflation data broadly conformed to expectations.Key points:US core CPI inflation data gained 0.3% month-on-month, surpassing expectations of 0.2%.Implied probabilities of an interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the Sep. 16 meeting rose to 85%.US bond yields will cause Bitcoin pain amid Fed policy tightening, QCP analysis warns.Bitcoin jumps 3% as “nervous” market digests CPI numbersData from TradingView showed renewed BTC price volatility ensuing after the August release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which came in at 3.4% year-on-year.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAfter initially dropping to $76,000, BTC/USD quickly reversed upward, gaining more than 3% on the day.The move echoed US equities, which also turned green after a weak start to the session. This was catalyzed by CPI conforming to expectations only a day after the Producer Price Index (PPI) overshot. The S&P 500 was up 1% at the time of writing, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index gained 1.1%.S&P 500 one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewUS bond yields also saw snap volatility. On the back of the CPI print, the 30-year yield whipsawed, first reaching its highest levels since June 2004 before falling to 5.309%.“This is a nervous market,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized in a response on X.US 30-year bond yield one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAs WTI crude oil continued to circle $100 per barrel, the impact of the expanding US-Iran war and associated oil-supply squeeze was noticeable in the CPI numbers.“The index for gasoline rose 3.9 percent in August, accounting for over one third of the monthly all items increase. The index for energy increased 2.1 percent over the month,” an official news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed.The release also reported that core CPI increased by 0.3% in August, 0.1% more than anticipated.US CPI 12-month % change. Source: BLSIn response, traders doubled down on bets that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 0.25% at its Sept. 16 meeting. The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed odds of such an outcome rising to 85% on Friday, increasing from 60% a week ago.Fed target-rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupFed officials are known to be split on the correct path for policy, with governor Christopher Waller last week indicating that he would be inclined to hold rates in their current 3.50-3.75% range should inflation data show at least “some signs of disinflation.”“What’s the cost of waiting one meeting? Hiking 25 basis points, one meeting right now, is not going to bring the CPI down to 2%,” he told Reuters.Analysis: Yield surge to become Bitcoin headwindDiscussing the implications of high bond yields going forward, trading company QCP Capital warned that Bitcoin bulls had little to look forward to. This is despite BTC/USD surging 25% in August after the US Treasury announced that it would step up debt buyback interventions.Related: Bitcoin buyers wary of July sub-$58K floor amid onchain data ‘anomaly’“The rise in US yields this year has been driven increasingly by tighter policy expectations and a risk premium common to both stocks and bonds, rather than by growth,” it wrote in its latest analysis. “This is the worst mix for Bitcoin: a competing 5% risk-free rate without the nominal-growth impulse that usually accompanies yield moves. It directly undercuts the narrative that carried Bitcoin from $63,000 to $82,000 in the second half of August, which leaned on the idea of a Treasury liquidity put providing structural support.”QCP argued that Bitcoin would ultimately benefit from these developments, but only once buyback operations have had time to inject sufficient liquidity into markets.

Bitcoin (BTC) buyers avoided “buying the dip” as BTC price fell to $57,800 in July, analysis reports.Key points:The Bitcoin HODL Waves metric showed that buyers did not rush to enter the market as BTC/USD fell below $58,000 at the start of July.A single whale may have been among the only dip-buyers at the time, said analyst Willy Woo.Analysis continued to warn that the bear market shows no concrete signs of structural shift based on current price action.Willy Woo: Bitcoin bottom buyer could be lone whaleData from Bitcoin’s HODL Waves metric shows an unusually muted reaction to the most recent macro lows.HODL Waves group the BTC supply by how long coins have remained dormant in their wallets, plotting each group over time to create the chart’s signature wave-like pattern. The newest supply, coins dormant between one and seven days, offers insight into investor buying activity following key BTC price events.On July 1, BTC/USD briefly dropped below $58,000, reaching its lowest levels since September 2024. On that day, the portion of the supply dormant between one and seven days stood at 1.97%, per data from Look Into Bitcoin. The figure increased only marginally in the days after, reaching a mere 2.35% on July 5.Bitcoin HODL Waves data. Source: Look Into BitcoinFor onchain analyst Willy Woo, this lack of onchain movement stands out among long-term BTC price lows. Previously, he noted, buyers rushed to buy new lows — a knee-jerk reaction absent in July.“Whoever bought the bottom did it slowly. Possibly even a single whale,” he wrote in a post on X this week, describing the event as an “anomaly.”Woo acknowledged that the interpretation was not infallible, with institutional investment vehicles possibly impacting the HODL Waves data.“I haven’t found any other thesis to explain the anomaly apart from slow steady buying by all investors involved this implies it’s a handful of buyers because if it was many they tend to act like a herd around price action and create spikes in the buying pattern,” he added.Misgivings over bear-market floor remainThe findings add to the debate around whether July marked Bitcoin’s latest bear-market bottom.Related: Bitcoin bear market ‘over’ as price metric copies 2023 recovery: CryptoQuant CEOAs Cointelegraph reported, opinions diverged significantly as BTC/USD rebounded above $80,000, with previous BTC price cycles dictating the need for a new macro low in the coming months.In his latest analysis, trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that the structure of the bear market ostensibly remains intact in the form of a series of lower highs within a broader downtrend.“At this very moment, Bitcoin is positioned for a repeat of bearish price history. However, Bitcoin has a few more days to turn things around before the new Weekly Close, if it can. A Weekly Close below ~$78300 could set price up for a breakdown like in May,” he wrote on Thursday.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.comAugust, meanwhile, saw a rebound in buyer appetite, with the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) seeing $3.8 billion in net inflows over a three-week period.

Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $77,000 around Thursday’s Wall Street open as risk assets faced resurgent macro headwinds.Key points:Bitcoin saw downside on the back of higher-than-expected US PPI inflation data, which hit 5.4% in August.Middle East strikes sent WTI crude oil over $100 per barrel for the first time since May.The US 30-year bond yield shrugged off a $6 billion buyback operation to hit its highest level since June 2007.US bond yields surge despite $6 billion interventionData from TradingView showed BTC/USD on track for 2% losses on the day, following weakness in US equities.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewOngoing escalation in the Middle East fueled a fresh surge in oil prices, with WTI crude passing $100 per barrel for the first time since May 21. Brent crude passed $105 per barrel on the day, nearing a new 16-week high.CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAgainst a backdrop of increasing inflation due to higher oil prices, markets also faced a fresh breakout in long-dated US bond yields. These came despite the Treasury executing the first of its stepped-up debt buyback operations and repurchasing $6 billion worth of Treasurys on Wednesday. The US 30-year yield reached 5.353% on the day, a level last seen in June 2007, while the 10-year yield hit its highest levels since November 2023 at 4.924%.US 30-year bond yield one-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCommenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter warned of knock-on effects from high borrowing costs for both government and consumers.“The bond market is quite literally fighting the US Treasury,” it wrote in a reaction on X.Hot US PPI data adds to crypto’s macro headacheThe August print of the Producer Price Index (PPI) underscored increased inflation, coming in at 5.4% year-on-year, 0.1% higher than expected. July’s headline PPI print was likewise revised higher.Related: Bitcoin sell-side risk returns to rare lows as $80K sellers fade from view“The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.3 percent in August after moving up 0.4 percent in July. For the 12 months ended in August, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 4.7 percent,” an official news release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) stated.US PPI one-month % change. Source: BLSMarket expectations of interest-rate hikes from the Federal Reserve jumped on the data. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed the odds of a 0.25% hike at the Fed’s Sept. 16 meeting at 69.8% at the time of writing versus 61.2% the day prior.Fed target-rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupAs Cointelegraph reported, concerns over Fed policy tightening had already increased on the back of stronger nonfarm payrolls data. Friday will see the release of another key US inflation report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will form the last major inflation print before the Fed rate decision.On Thursday, the European Central Bank enacted its own 0.25% hike, the second such move in 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC) sell-side risk remains near historic lows as August profit-taking cools, new data shows.Key points:Bitcoin’s sell-side risk ratio fell to seven from 16 in September, placing it among its lowest-ever readings.Selling pressure eased while Bitcoin held most of its 25% August gains.Bitcoin ETF investors have spent 229 sessions below their aggregate breakeven level near $86,000.Bitcoin hodlers are “selling less” in September, Glassnode saysIn the latest edition of Glassnode’s The Week Onchain newsletter, the crypto analytics platform said Bitcoin’s sell-side risk ratio (SSRR) had reset lower.Sell-side risk sums total onchain realized profits and losses and divides that figure by Bitcoin’s realized market cap. The result is a snapshot of the US dollar value realized over a given period relative to realized cap.Glassnode describes lower values as signals of “macro market bottoms, accumulation phases and relatively low sell-side risk environments.”SSRR reached 16 as Bitcoin’s price hit multimonth highs above $80,000 in late August. As of this week, however, the metric has more than halved to 7, one of the lowest readings on record.Bitcoin SSRR data. Source: GlassnodeGlassnode said the August Bitcoin price rebound had “drawn little supply,” as measured by onchain activity.“At the July 2025 and October 2025 highs the same measure spiked to 35 and 23 basis points. Only a small share of days in the past year have run lower than today,” it noted.Data also shows that long-term holders — defined as wallet entities that hold a UTXO without spending it for at least six months — are realizing profits onchain at a lower rate this month.“Long-term holders’ share of realized profit has fallen to 47% from 88% at the August peak, and September’s realized profit spike on September 3, 2026 was under half the size of August’s,” Glassnode continued. “The sellers this month are recent buyers, and even they are selling less.”Bitcoin ETF buyers eye breakeven pointThe SSRR reading may ease concerns that even a modest Bitcoin price correction could trigger panic selling.Related: New Bitcoin whales spark sell-side risk as unrealized gains hit $9BBitcoin investor cohorts have returned to aggregate profit after Bitcoin reclaimed $80,000, potentially increasing the temptation to sell if the price retraces further. As Cointelegraph reported, the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has remained in net profit for its longest stretch of 2026.SOPR reflects the net profitability of spent coins, with 1 representing breakeven. Sustained readings above 1 can support a bullish long-term trend change.Glassnode added that US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors would return to aggregate profit at $86,000. Bitcoin has closed below that level for the past 229 sessions, with ETF investors’ paper losses currently around $3.9 billion.Bitcoin ETF profitability data. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin (BTC) struggled below $80,000 on Wednesday as attention refocused on the Japanese yen.Key points:Bitcoin saw further macro headwinds as US-Iran strikes pushed Brent crude oil above $100 per barrel.The Japanese yen continued to trade around 153 per dollar, its highest levels since February as yen shorts stayed near record highs.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted at further interventions in yen currency markets to come.Bitcoin lacks momentum as Iran strikes sour risk-asset moodData from TradingView showed the local upside in the BTC/USD pair reversing as it attempted to revisit the $80,000 mark. BTC is currently down by around 0.4% on the day. BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewUS stocks also drifted lower at the Wall Street open, fueled by fresh US strikes on Iranian oil tankers. The tensions helped send oil prices to new three-month highs, building on gains from the day prior. At the time of writing, WTI crude traded above $96 per barrel, while Brent crude surged above $101 per barrel for the first time since late July.CFDs on Brent crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewTraders also eyed fresh developments in the yen as Japan’s currency hit its highest levels against the dollar since February. It is currently at $0.0065, up 6.5% since the start of August.JPY/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewPreviously, Cointelegraph reported on repeated joint interventions in foreign exchange markets by Japan and the US, which resulted in the rapid strengthening. The yen’s gains continued despite speculation that Washington may keep Japan from selling US Treasuries as part of future interventions.Yen short interest lingers near record highsCiting data from Bloomberg on Wednesday, Barchart flagged record yen short positioning at the start of September, with the total hovering above 5 trillion yen. Related: Bitcoin SOPR metric sees longest profit run of 2026 as new analysis challenges bear marketJapanese yen short positioning. Source: Barchart on X.comIn subsequent commentary, Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, told Reuters that the yen’s continued strength would have implications for these shorts as part of an unwinding of the yen carry trade. The USD/JPY pair is key for liquidity conditions that could ultimately impact crypto markets.“The carry trade is vulnerable because this unwind is happening before the BOJ has even delivered its expected hike,” she said. “Some yen shorts have already been cut, but positioning still looks sizeable, so further yen strength can turn a gradual reduction in leverage into a much faster, self-reinforcing unwind.”The risk was exacerbated by the Bank of Japan’s anticipated 0.25% interest-rate hike at its next meeting on Sept. 28.Last month, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that the door was open to future yen intervention operations. This week, he doubled down on those hints, appearing to dare short traders to bet against central banks.“When we intervene with the Japanese yen, I have pretty good insight into what the Bank of Japan is going to do, what Japanese policymakers are going to do. I have asymmetric information. I am the house now,” he said in an event at Southern Methodist University in Texas on Tuesday, quoted by the Financial Times.