Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) circled $78,000 on Saturday after geopolitical headwinds erased most of its May gains.Key points:Bitcoin falls below $78,000 for the first time since the start of May.Oil-supply woes combine with existing nerves over US bond markets, adding to headwinds for risk assets.Support weakness has traders looking at $75,000 and under next, while optimists see a “bear trap” forming.Multiple hurdles “coming together” for crypto, risk assetsData from TradingView confirmed new lows of $77,614 on the day — the lowest levels since May 1.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewDownside pressure stemming from concerns over US government bonds continued, with the US-Iran war also at the forefront of traders’ minds.Iran appeared to be pressing ahead with a toll system for transit through the Strait of Hormuz — the epicenter of a global oil-supply squeeze — while keeping US traffic out.As reported by trading resource The Kobeissi Letter among others, Hormuz would reportedly “remain closed to the operators of Project Freedom.”On Friday, analysis from Mosaic Asset Company spelled out the problems of the current geopolitical and macroeconomic climate for risk assets.“The prospect for another inflation wave is lining up with similarities to the surge in price levels into mid-2022,” it wrote in its latest Mosaic Chart Alerts blog post. “Disrupted supply chains from last year’s trade war, impact of war on energy markets, and stimulus via large federal budget deficits are coming together at the same time.”CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewWTI crude oil finished the week trading above $100 per barrel.Bitcoin price action teases “bear trap”Among Bitcoin traders, there were ongoing mixed feelings about the bears’ strength below $80,000.Related: Bitcoin price history suggests 77% odds of new all-time high within a year“Over the last couple of days, the price has been going down slightly, while the open interest has climbed up. But things become interesting if we correlate this with Funding Rates, which have flipped negative,” X trading account Cryptic Trades wrote on X. “This shows us that bears are DOUBLING DOWN right now and betting on a breakdown. It also shows that even though the market structure remains intact, bears are shorting as if a breakdown already happened. That’s generally how bear-traps are formed.”BTC/USDT chart with open interest, funding rate data. Source: Cryptic Trades/XFor analyst Eric Coleman, a target for new local lows lay at around $75,000.“BTC went down after the breakdown retest of the ascending triangle,” he summarized alongside a chart showing relevant support/resistance flip levels.BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: Eric Coleman/XExamining exchange order-book liquidity, Daan Crypto Trades highlighted $71,000 as the nearest zone of interest below price.“The longer price compresses around this $80K region, the more liquidity will be building up on both sides which should result in a larger more aggressive move at some point,” he told X followers.BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Bitcoin (BTC) risks starting its “next downtrend” as bulls fail to break beyond $82,000, the latest analysis warns.Key points:Bitcoin traders are beginning to sway toward a support retest or even a new “downtrend” for BTC/USD.Current price behavior has retained overhead resistance, with bulls unable to push through $82,000.Rangebound crypto markets spark $330 million in liquidations over 24 hours.Trader: BTC price will “likely break below” supportBitcoin traders are increasingly split on where BTC/USD will go next, but calls for lower levels are growing.“For now, price remains in range, within value, rotating just above the very key ‘range high,’” trading account JDK Analysis wrote in its latest updates on X.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: JDK Analysis/XAs Cointelegraph reported, that rangebound construction, in place through most of May, is bordered by a CME futures gap and a key 200-day trend line to the upside.With both staying in place for now, market participants are starting to assume that the bottom of the range will be retested instead.“Now it’s important to watch how price reacts at the support zone we already bounced from once before. In my opinion, we will likely break below it this time,” CGT Trader said. BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: CGT Trader/XTrader BitBull went further, seeing the risk of a protracted period of downside BTC price pressure about to enter.“$BTC failed to reclaim the $82,000 level again,” they told X followers on Friday. “It seems like the next downtrend could start soon.”BTC/USDC one-day chart. Source: BitBull/XHopes for Bitcoin’s “massive catch-up” to stocks persistTrading circles are not without their more optimistic takes. Related: Bitcoin price history suggests 77% odds of new all-time high within a yearCryptic Trades predicts that BTC/USD will follow in the footsteps of US stock markets, which continue to post new all-time highs.“$BTC is going to play a massive catch-up in the upcoming weeks,” it summarized.Examining the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, meanwhile, trader Cai Soren said that bulls “stepped in instantly” to defend support.Earlier, Cointelegraph noted bullish signals from the bands, which even caused their creator, John Bollinger, to act.“As long as support keeps holding, momentum still looks strong for continuation higher,” Soren forecast.BTC/USDT four-hour chart with Bollings Bands data. Source: Cai Soren/X Data from CoinGlass shows the impact of rangebound moves across crypto markets, with 24-hour liquidations roughly equal across both long and short positions.These totaled around $330 million at the time of writing.Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Bitcoin (BTC) touched $80,000 around Thursday’s Wall Street open as US stocks hit fresh all-time highs and oil retested $100.Key points:Bitcoin rebounded to $80,000 while US stock markets hit new records, ignoring high inflation.Risk appetite is “skyrocketing,” analysis says, despite worries over central-bank policy tightening.Bitcoin can still head to $85,000 next, traders agree.Bitcoin recoups losses as US stocks ignore inflationData from TradingView showed BTC/USD recovering much of the previous day’s losses, which followed some of the highest US inflation data in four years. BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewUS stocks quickly shook off the numbers, despite the implications for future financial policy tightening. The S&P 500 posted its highest daily close on record, and continued to surge on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average revisited 50,000 points for the first time since early February.S&P 500 versus Dow Jones one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCommenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter reported “skyrocketing” risk appetite among investors.“Assets under management (AUM) in US leveraged ETFs are up to a record $177 billion. Since the March bottom, total leveraged ETF AUM has surged +$45 billion,” it wrote in its latest analysis on X.Leveraged ETF AUM data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/XKobeissi used the same term to describe global money-supply growth — a crypto and risk-asset tailwind at odds with concerns that central banks were adopting a “hawkish stance.” “Meanwhile, US M2 money supply jumped +$1 trillion YoY, or +4.6%, to a record $22.7 trillion,” it continued. “Money supply growth is accelerating.”Global money supply data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/XAs the US-Iran war rumbled on, oil prices seemed unable to crack new highs, with WTI crude retesting the $100 per barrel mark from above.CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView”Most important” BTC price support still in playLooking at BTC price action, trader Daan Crypto Trades saw the market at a “pivotal level.”Related: Bitcoin price history suggests 77% odds of new all-time high within a year“Hanging on to that ~$79.4K level which marked the previous highs in April,” he told X followers.An accompanying chart showed the 200-period simple (SMA) and exponential (EMA) moving averages trending higher toward the spot price.BTC/USDT perpetual contract four-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/XOn the same topic, fellow trader CrypNuevo saw the potential for BTC/USD to head to new multi-month highs at the 50-week EMA should that support hold.“Bitcoin is at the most important level,” he agreed on Wednesday. “If it holds the range highs here, then it’ll push towards the 1W50EMA at $84k-$85k. But a failure to hold this level could trigger a rotation back to the mid-range, potentially exposing range lows if momentum doesn’t shift.”BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $80,000 into Wednesday’s Wall Street open as US inflation data continued to alarm.Key points:Bitcoin price action sees fresh downside pressure thanks to US PPI inflation reaching its highest since 2022.Odds of further financial tightening by the Federal Reserve increased in a headwind for crypto.BTC price analysis sees the CME futures gap staying as resistance “until further notice.” BTC price action loses $80,000 in fresh inflation blowData from TradingView showed a trip to near $79,500 accompanying the April release of the Producer Price Index (PPI).BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewLike the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print the day prior, PPI delivered a surprise to the upside — a headwind for crypto and risk assets due to the implied future tightening of financial conditions by the Federal Reserve. “The April increase is the largest advance since rising 1.7 percent in March 2022,” an official news release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) stated. “On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 6.0 percent for the 12 months ended in April, the largest 12-month increase since moving up 6.4 percent in December 2022.”US PPI one-month % change. Source: BLSThe US-Iran war and its associated impact on oil prices thus continued to filter through to the economy, with even more serious upheaval to come.“All of the data is very clear: consumers are about to face another wave serious pressure on spending power,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in a reaction on X.The results further reduced the odds of the Fed cutting interest rates at its June meeting, with just a 1.4% chance of that outcome, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Fed target rate probabilities for June 17 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME GroupOn Monday, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company summarized the risk that high oil prices, in particular, pose to the risk-asset uptrend.“The prospect of rising interest rates on the short- and long-end of the yield curve could pose a challenge to stock market valuations,” it wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic. “The easing bias in central banks around the world is shifting to a more hawkish stance.”CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBitcoin futures gap in control “until further notice”Bitcoin traders maintained hope for a successful breakout from current resistance for BTC/USD.Related: Bitcoin price history suggests 77% odds of new all-time high within a year“Break above that ~$82K region and that gap at $84K will surely be filled. Likely continuing quite a lot higher at that point,” Daan Crypto Trades wrote in his latest X analysis.Daan Crypto Trades described US stocks as recovering “nicely” from their initial weakness over the CPI data.“Market mostly awaiting some clarity in regards to the conflict in the middle east,” he added.BTC/USDT perpetual contract one-day chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/XTrader and analyst Rekt Capital, meanwhile, saw BTC/USD moving within an open “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market — a common short-term price magnet.“Bitcoin finally Weekly Closed below the top of the red area, confirming that price will be consolidating within the CME Gap until further notice,” he told X followers.CME Bitcoin futures one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Bitcoin may have a roughly 77% chance of reaching new all-time highs within a year if historical BTC price patterns repeat.Key points:Bitcoin reduces its drawdown from all-time highs from 50% to 35% with its rebound to $80,000.History shows that new all-time highs have come within a year during similar events.The Buffett indicator could be calling Bitcoin’s new $160,000 record highs in advance.BTC price drawdown: Odds favor new all-time highNew research from network economist Timothy Peterson released on Tuesday shows what happens when BTC/USD claws back significant losses.“I looked at every time Bitcoin went from a -50% drawdown to a -35% drawdown (the situation we are in today),” he revealed in a post on X.Bitcoin dipped below $60,000 in late February, a move that brought its drawdown versus its $126,200 all-time highs beyond 50%.Since then, conditions have eased, and price currently trades around $81,000. Against its October 2025 peak, the pair is 35% lower, per data from TradingView.BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAs Peterson confirms in an accompanying chart, such moves have characterized price action throughout its past bear markets. What is more exciting for Bitcoin bulls, however, is what traditionally comes next.He added that “7 out of 9 times it hit a new all-time high within a year.” BTC price drawdown data. Source: Timothy Peterson/XThe last time that a similar recovery took place was at the end of the 2022 bear market, which saw a maximum drawdown of just over 70%.Data from onchain analytics platform Glassnode shows that it took until December 2023 for that correction to become 35% against all-time highs from two years prior.Bitcoin’s new record high then came in March 2024.BTC price drawdowns from all-time highs. Source: GlassnodeBitcoin “looks cheap” amid $160,000 targetDespite uncertainty over geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions going forward, Bitcoin is not without its bullish predictions this month.Related: BTC price target becomes $85K next: Five things to know in Bitcoin this weekExamining Bitcoin versus gold, Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, offered $160,000 per coin as a conservative estimate.Sigel reported that the so-called Buffett indicator — the ratio of the total US stock market to GDP named after Warren Buffett — implies a BTC comeback move.“Bitcoin looks cheap,” he told X followers on Monday.“If it regains the 35x XBT/XAU cross implied by current levels of the Buffett Indicator, we’re looking at $160k, and that’s just catching up to where equities already are.”BTC/USD versus Buffett indicator. Source: Matthew Sigel/X