Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin sees worst monthly close in 2 years as traders watch $16.7K

Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to flip $17,000 to support on Dec. 1 after sealing its lowest monthly close in two years.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin gains inch up as November endData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD circling $17,100 in a second intraday charge at higher levels. The pair managed to avoid losses as the monthly candle closed, instead seeing solid daily gains of around 4.5% for Nov. 30.Nonetheless, Bitcoin shed 16.2% for the month, making November 2022 its worst since 2019.BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: CoinglassThe more buoyant mood coincided with comments from the United States Federal Reserve. In a speech on inflation and the labor market, Chair Jerome Powell openly stated that smaller interest rate hikes could begin as soon as December.“Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with uncertain lags, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt,” he said. “Thus, it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down. The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.” Powell characteristically cautioned on heralding a full turning point in policy, something markets had been keenly awaiting throughout the year.“Given our progress in tightening policy, the timing of that moderation is far less significant than the questions of how much further we will need to raise rates to control inflation, and the length of time it will be necessary to hold policy at a restrictive level,” he added.Nonetheless, stocks reacted positively, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index ending the day up 3.1% and 4.4%, respectively, in line with Bitcoin.No euphoria among tradersIn responses of their own, meanwhile, crypto market commentators were equally cool on the immediate prospects despite the moderate month-end gains.Related: Bitcoin capitulation 4th-worst ever as BTC hodlers lose $10B in a weekCrypto Tony warned that bulls were “getting cocky” into December, and that now was not a suitable blind entry point.“Now is not the time to go all in, thinking this is the bottom on Crypto,” he told Twitter followers.“We have yet to see : – A macro higher high and higher low (Market structure trend change) – Bull volume coming in – Spot buys on the increase – Completed corrective structure.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/ TwitterA key level to hold for continuation of the “bullish market structure,” he added, was $16,700.Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, agreed on the importance of an area focused on $16,700 for his own strategy.The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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BTC price taps $17K as analysis warns of inbound Bitcoin ‘risk events’

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly returned to $17,000 into Nov. 30 as monthly close volatility loomed.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewTrader: $17,500 monthly close “most bullish outcome”Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD following traders’ predictions to sweep higher levels before consolidating.Highs of $17,072 appeared on Bitstamp, with the pair nonetheless unable to flip the highs to support. At the time of writing, Bitcoin hovered around $16,900.$17,000 marks a key range for bulls to reclaim, Cointelegraph reported the day prior, and until this happens, the status quo remains.“$BTC bulls want to hold 16.8k as first counter trend S/R flip. Back below would represent a minor upthrust,” popular analyst Cheds summarized, revealing a short at the highs.Hours away from the monthly candle close, markets expected volatility to kick in, with losses following the Nov. 27 weekly close already erased.“Looking for a monthly close back above 17.5k (June lows) for the most bullish possible outcome here,” fellow analyst Credible Crypto wrote in part of a Twitter update.BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Credible Crypto/ TwitterAt the time of writing, BTC/USD was down around 17.5% for the month of November, according to data from Coinglass.BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: CoinglassBTC price “risk events” stack upThe macro picture remained stable on the day, with Asia stocks seeing another day of strength ahead of the Nov. 30 Wall Street open.Related: Bitcoin capitulation 4th-worst ever as BTC hodlers lose $10B in a weekHong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 2.2% at the time of writing, with the Shanghai Composite Index managing to recoup initial losses.Hang Seng Index (HSI) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingViewAnalyzing the prospects for December, however, trading firm QCP Capital outlined several “risk events” for Bitcoin hodlers to take note of.These came in the form of United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Dec. 13, this coinciding with United States lawmakers’ initial hearing on the FTX debacle.The day after, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is due to outline inflation expectations and policy.“Thus we believe that while more one-off shocks might not be so forthcoming in a market filled with fear, a continued deflation of the crypto market will continue well into next year as many are forced to continually sell assets to raise liquidity,” QCP commented in its latest Crypto Circular newsletter:“This will likely only end in late Q2-Q3 next year when the real economy gets badly hit from the 4.75% overnight rate and the Fed is then forced to pivot – releasing much needed liquidity which could then find its way into crypto markets once again.”An extra potential catalyst for BTC price volatility, it added, would come courtesy of reimbursements to creditors of defunct exchange Mt. Gox slated for January.The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Bitcoin capitulation 4th-worst ever as BTC hodlers lose $10B in a week

Bitcoin (BTC) hodlers have capitulated more than at almost any point in Bitcoin’s history this month.Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode confirms that the November 2022 BTC sell-off was the fourth-largest ever.Bitcoin investors see multi-billion-dollar lossesIn the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” Glassnode got to grips with the impact of the FTX debacle on BTC investors.The results have been mixed, it reveals, with a major loss of confidence, on one hand, triggering loss-making divestment of funds, while “strong accumulation” has also occurred.For those entering BTC in current conditions, however, life has been anything but easy.“One consistent event which motivates the transition from a bear back towards a bull market is the dramatic realization of losses, as investors give up and capitulate at scale,” Glassnode explained. “November has seen the fourth largest capitulation event on record, recording a 7-day realized loss of -$10.16B. This is 4.0x larger than the peak in Dec 2018, and 2.2x larger than March 2020.”Bitcoin realized loss 7-day sum annotated chart (screenshot). Source: GlassnodeWhile the dollar-value capitulation can be explained thanks to BTC/USD trading five times higher than in late 2018 and 4.5 times higher than in March 2020, it is no secret that cold feet have characterized crypto markets since FTX imploded.As Cointelegraph reported, directly following the event, hodlers were sitting on 50% of the BTC supply at an unrealized loss.Glassnode referenced Bitcoin’s adjusted market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio, which shows that coins moving on-chain are returning loss-making levels rarely seen before in what it calls “peak under-performance.”Adjusted MVRV ratio is the relationship between the market value of BTC and its realized value, minus the profit impact of coins dormant for seven years or longer.“This metric is currently returning a value of 0.63 (average unrealized loss of 37%), which is very significant since only 1.57% of trading days in bitcoin history have recorded a lower Adjusted MVRV value,” the newsletter stated. “In other words, if we discount profit held across the presumably lost supply, the current market is the most underwater it has been since the near pico-bottom set in Dec 2018 and Jan 2015.”Bitcoin adjusted MVRV ratio annotated chart (screenshot). Source: GlassnodeBuying the dip like it’s December 2018“The Week On-Chain” nonetheless contains some good news for market participants.Related: Bitcoin shrugs off BlockFi, China protests as BTC price holds $16KDespite the previous losses, hodlers have been accumulating BTC aggressively since — and the trend is encompassing everyone, from the smallest “shrimps” to the largest whales.“From a comparative point of view, the recent strong accumulation score following the recent sell-off resembles that of late 2018,” Glassnode stated.It added that similar black swan events in Bitcoin’s past, including recent ones such as the collapse of Terra’s LUNA, sparked similar investor reactions.An accompanying chart, the seven-day moving average (MA) of the Accumulation Trend Score, showed current conditions as purple — characteristic of mass accumulation. Yellow, conversely, points to mass distribution of BTC on the market.Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score (7-day MA) annotated chart (screenshot). Source: GlassnodeThe views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Bitcoin shrugs off BlockFi, China protests as BTC price holds $16K

Bitcoin (BTC) held crucial $16,000 support into Nov. 29 as bulls weathered ongoing FTX fallout and macro triggers.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewTrader teases BTC long as $16,500 reappearsData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed BTC/USD leaving lower levels untouched overnight.The pair had seen a flash downturn after the Nov. 27 weekly close thanks to uncertainty from China over COVID-19 measures.A recovery nonetheless took the market higher, with $16,500 coming into play at the time of writing. As Cointelegraph reported, traders and analysts had warned that it was all but essential to preserve current support, with a violation opening up the road to $14,000 or lower.Popular trader Crypto Tony even felt comfortable going long BTC on the day.“Flipping the EQ would be a safer long entry, but keeping this open with a tight stop loss is the best way for me,” he revealed to Twitter followers.An accompanying chart identified support and resistance zones in play on midrange timeframes.BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/ TwitterEven fresh repercussions over the FTX debacle failed to dent Bitcoin’s performance. Meanwhile, these came in the form of a bankruptcy filing and lawsuit from crypto lender BlockFi.The latest in a chain reaction sparked by FTX going under, the news came alongside a surprise resumption of salary payments by the defunct exchange.“Makes sense after this bounce, as we’ve created a HL on Bitcoin and aiming at resistance again,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, continued about a higher low (HL) on the 4-hour chart:“Taking out the range between $16.5-16.8K would trigger continuation towards $18K.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/ TwitterChina woes cool ahead of Fed Powell speechChina meanwhile formed the main macro focus on the day, with anti-lockdown protests’ impact on market sentiment nonetheless seeming to ease.Related: New BTC miner capitulation? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekAsian markets bounced back strongly, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up 5.2% at the time of writing and the Shanghai Composite Index gaining 2.3%.Hang Seng Index (HSI) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView“We do not expect China policy to publicly shift away from the Zero Covid stance, however, we could see some easing of the policy privately and in localized areas,” Mohit Kumar, an analyst at investment banking firm Jefferies, wrote in a note quoted by Bloomberg.Nov. 30 looked set to be the key trading day of the week, with Bitcoin’s monthly close accompanied by a speech from Jerome Powell, Chair of the United States Federal Reserve.The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Bitcoin will ‘teleport’ to $14K or worse if BTC breaks $16K — Analyst

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered above $16,000 on the Nov. 28 Wall Street open as analysts diverged on what to expect from the next market move.BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingViewBitcoin spot price near key supportData from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD maintaining the $16,000 support level at the time of writing amid misgivings over China’s impact on risk assets.After a modestly higher weekly close, the pair still lacked volatility as one commentator warned of a “teleport” toward $12,000 should $16,000 break.“When it breaks below 16k, it teleports to 12k-14k,” Il Capo of Crypto insisted.Popular Twitter account Credible Crypto asked where the volatility had gone, while Crypto Tony likewise identified $16,000 as a line in the sand for his own trading strategy.“Finally some movement .. Stop loss firmly remains at $16,000, but will close if hit and look for shorts if we then proceed to close below the support zone and flip into resistance,” part of a tweet read on the day. BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/TwitterFellow trader Pentoshi meanwhile focused on macro triggers as Chinese protests over the country’s COVID-19 containment strategies weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500, he predicted, was due a rejection next, setting the tone for a long-term downtrend to continue.S&P 500 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingView$19,500 could become the new BTC price ceilingOthers drew attention to the upcoming monthly close amid a lack of catalysts elsewhere at the start of the week.Related: New BTC miner capitulation? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this weekBeyond a source of potential volatility, trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin’s monthly closing price would determine its longer-term price range.“When BTC lost the ~$19500 level as support… It broke down into the ~$13900-$19500 Monthly Range,” he explained on the day. “Monthly Candle Close is coming up soon. A Monthly Close below ~$19500 would likely confirm the ~$13900-$19500 Range as its new playground.”BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/TwitterBTC/USD was down around 21% for the month of November at the time of writing, marking its worst November performance since its last bear market year in 2018. BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: CoinglassCointelegraph previously outlined potential bottom targets for the pair, among them those based on performance during previous bear markets.The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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