Autor Cointelegraph By William Suberg

Bitcoin (BTC) fell nearly 3% on Thursday after an attempt to break higher was rejected near $85,000.Key points:Bitcoin returned to near $81,500 after Tesla reported a lower-than-expected Q3 capital expenditure (capex) of $4.73 billion.South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index saw fresh weakness, closing down 3.5% on Thursday.BTC price action rejected from a resistance trend line at $84,840, preserving a pattern of lower highs.Tesla capex underspend raises questionsData from TradingView showed BTC/USD retracing around Wednesday’s daily close, subsequently returning below $82,000. The pair gave back the entirety of the gains made on that day, when price peaked at around $84,840 on Bitstamp.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewHigher-than-expected US corporate earnings had helped spark a rally in both crypto and stock markets. However, results from Tesla after the Wall Street closing bell did not provide the same promising signals as seen from SpaceX and General Motors earlier in the week.The company reported Q3 revenue of $28.05 billion, just short of Bloomberg’s $28.13 billion estimate. However, capital expenditure came in at $4.73 billion, well below the projected $7.96 billion. The capex numbers appeared to fuel concerns over the AI sector as markets recovered from last week’s Asia tech-stock sell-off.“Lower capex suggests less of an ‘all-in’ approach to the AI arms race than one would expect from Elon,” Ryan Lee, senior vice president of product ⁠and strategy at Direxion, told Reuters, referring to Tesla CEO Elon Musk.On the company’s earnings call, Musk said spending would rise through 2028.“I think capex is actually ending up being a little lower than we anticipated, but we’ll start to become more meaningful next year. And then noticeable in the tens of billions in ’28,” he said, quoted by Bloomberg.South Korea’s tech-heavy KOSPI Composite Index finished Thursday’s trading session down 3.52%, struggling to sustain a recovery after dropping to 5,460 points last week, its lowest level since late July.KOSPI Composite Index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewBitcoin sees lower high with resistance trend line still in placeOnchain data showed a marked increase in open interest (OI) across crypto trading platforms prior to Bitcoin’s reversal.Related: XRP 30-day exchange inflows pass 6B tokens as whales move to the sidelinesOI reached $55.95 billion late Tuesday, per CoinGlass figures, after gaining 4.5% over 24 hours to reach its highest tally since Sept. 25. Such increases in OI heighten the market’s susceptibility to long or short cascades that can turn brief reversals into deeper corrections.Bitcoin exchange OI data (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassOn three-day time frames, BTC/USD saw rejection at a downward-sloping trend line, preserving a cycle of lower highs. On Tuesday, crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital argued that this trend line resistance needed to be broken as a prerequisite for sustained upside momentum.BTC/USD 3-day chart with resistance trend line. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewPreviously, Cointelegraph reported on the area between $80,000 and $81,500 now forming key support, because it hosts the cost basis for the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). 

Bitcoin (BTC) passed $84,000 after Wednesday’s Wall Street open as US stocks added to gains on more strong corporate earnings reports.Key points:Bitcoin climbed nearly 2% on Wednesday to return to $84,600 for the first time since Oct. 7.SpaceX Q3 operating revenue beat expectations by nearly 15%, coming in at $14.6 billion.BTC price action needs a daily close above $83,400 to shift the focus higher in its trading range, crypto analyst Rekt Capital wrote.SpaceX Q3 earnings help propel Bitcoin to $84,600Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining nearly 2% on the day as markets reacted to a significant Q3 earnings beat from SpaceX.BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAfter the market close on Tuesday, SpaceX reported a Q3 revenue of $14.6 billion, up 161% year-on-year and beating expectations by nearly 15%. The net income of the company was $4.4 billion for the quarter.“The combination of our launch leadership, recurring Starlink revenue, and the significant expansion of our SI infrastructure continues to drive meaningful operating leverage,” chief financial officer Bret Johnsen commented on the earnings release.US stocks were green at the start of the US trading session, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index 0.7% higher at 26,601 points before retracing some of its gains. Tesla and Meta earnings are due after Wednesday’s market close.Nasdaq Composite Index one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIn a note quoted by CNBC, analysts at Truist Securities suggested that SpaceX’s performance had helped to calm market fears over corporate spending on AI buildouts. Last week, those misgivings resurfaced in a fresh tech sell-off that began in South Korea and spilled over to Asia and the US.“Despite market concerns relating to financing for AI cloud providers this past week, we believe SpaceX’s third-quarter 2026 represents the first data point during the earnings season to support the bull case for AI cloud providers,” Truist wrote.South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index finished Wednesday’s trading session 3.29% higher at 5,735 points.KOSPI Composite Index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewAnalyst: BTC needs to reclaim $83,400 at daily closeBTC price action began to clear ask liquidity around $84,000, with total crypto short liquidations nearing $110 million over the past four hours, per data from CoinGlass.Related: Bitcoin ‘top buyers’ halt BTC price upside with $87.7K now key: GlassnodeBTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlassOn four-hour time frames, BTC/USD broke above its 200-period simple moving average (SMA) at $83,878 for the first time since Oct. 14. The $84,000 mark hosted multiple equal highs originally generated between Oct. 11 and Oct. 14, reinforcing its status as a resistance level.BTC/USD four-hour chart with 200-period SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIn analysis on Wednesday, crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital said that Bitcoin still needed a daily close above $83,400 to revisit the top of its local range.“Bitcoin needs to avoid rejecting from $83400 (red) because that would once again send price below $82500,” he summarized on X alongside an explanatory chart.BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com

Bitcoin (BTC) investors sitting on unrealized losses are capping price gains at $87,700, while ETF inflows strengthen support at $80,000, analysis reveals.Key points:Bitcoin investors who bought BTC in the latter stages of 2025 have an aggregate cost basis of around $87,700, which now functions as resistance per Glassnode analysis.The area immediately above $87,000 hosts several resistance levels including the 2026 open at $87,490 and the 20-month moving average at $87,165.Bitcoin price support at $80,000 strengthens as bid liquidity focuses on this psychological level.Bitcoin 2025 buyers add to $87,000 resistance zoneNew research from onchain analytics platform Glassnode reveals that the breakeven point for a cohort of new Bitcoin holders is currently acting as resistance.Since the start of the year, two groups of holders have kept BTC/USD from moving higher once it challenges their acquisition cost basis.In November 2025, price lost the cost basis of investors with entries between six and 12 months prior, which sat at $94,000 at the time. When price attempted to break above the trendline at $97,100 in January 2026, it became resistance, triggering a rejection and sending price lower.A similar resistance trendline is given by the cost basis of investors who bought BTC one to two years prior. This cohort slipped into aggregate loss in February of this year as price lost its cost basis of $76,900. In May, the cost basis halted a price rebound at just above $82,000.In both cases, underwater buyers looking to exit their positions at breakeven produced a wall of sell-side pressure that new demand could not match. Commenting, Glassnode noted the extent of BTC price retracements after rejections from either cost basis.“Bitcoin rose to the 6-12 month cost basis in January and then fell by more than a third. It met the 1-2 year cost basis in May and fell by about a quarter,” it said. “The 1-2 year holders also stepped up their selling into the rally at the start of October.”The cost bases for the six-to-12-month cohort and one-to-two-year cohort are currently $87,700 and $99,500, respectively.BTC/USD chart with cohort breakeven levels (screenshot). Source: GlassnodeThe area above $87,000 also contains the 2026 opening price at $87,490 and the 20-month simple moving average (SMA) for BTC/USD at $87,165, a level that has historically preceded new all-time highs once reclaimed as support.ETF cost basis hosts new BTC price supportBelow current spot price, the cost basis of the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) marks one of several support levels of interest around the $80,000 mark.Related: XRP 30-day exchange inflows pass 6B tokens as whales move to the sidelinesGlassnode calculates the spot ETF cost basis at $81,500, while Bitcoin’s true market mean — the cost basis for all BTC acquired on secondary markets — sits at $77,500. Below this, the breakeven point of Bitcoin’s short-term holders — wallet entities holding a given amount of BTC for up to six months without selling — lies at $74,600.As an important psychological level, $80,000 now forms a magnet for bid liquidity across exchange order books.“The block sits just under the US Spot ETF Cost Basis, so the zone between $80K and $81.5K is where order-book and on-chain support overlap. A break below it would bring the liquidation cluster just under $80K, and then the True Market Mean near $78K, into play,” Glassnode commented.BTC/USD chart with cost-basis data, true market mean (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin (BTC) returned to $83,000 after Tuesday’s Wall Street open as US stocks gained on strong earnings reports.Key points:Bitcoin gained up to 1.5%, joining upside in US stocks on the back of some higher-than-expected Q3 earnings results.Oil prices hit $101 per barrel early on Tuesday before dropping nearly 5% in hours as equities gained.BTC price action sought to challenge the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $83,230.BTC price swings as US earnings, oil moves drive marketsData from TradingView showed BTC/USD gaining 1.5% to reach its highest levels since Oct. 14 before dropping back toward $82,000.BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewCrypto joined US stock markets in rallying as Q3 earnings reports beat expectations. Both General Motors and industrial conglomerate 3M beat earnings expectations, while the latter also increased its profit forecast.The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2% on the back of the results to hit levels last seen on Sept. 14. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index traded up 0.6% and 0.5% at the time of writing.Dow Jones Industrial Average one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewEarnings helped mitigate the impact of a fresh oil-price uptick earlier in the day, which saw US WTI crude pass $100 per barrel for the first time since Sept. 17. However, WTI fell precipitously around the start of the US trading session to trade below $96.CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewIn a note on Monday, Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, already saw markets sensing relief after last week’s tech-focused sell-off, which spread to US markets by Friday.“Improving moods regarding the prospects of modern technology have Wall Street breathing a sigh of relief as participants drop hedges, after the cost of volatility protection soared intraday on Friday, ahead of the intensifying selloff,” he wrote.SpaceX is due to report Q3 performance figures after the market close on Tuesday, with Tesla and Meta due on Wednesday. Bitcoin rejected at 21-day moving averageBitcoin broke through a nearby wall of ask liquidity with its trip to $83,000, data from CoinGlass showed. Crypto markets saw $125 million in short liquidations between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m. ET.Related: XRP 30-day exchange inflows pass 6B tokens as whales move to the sidelinesBTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlassAt the same time, total open interest on exchanges hit its highest levels since Oct. 8 at $53.86 billion, gaining around 2.1% in 24 hours.In recent analysis, Keith Alan, cofounder of crypto trading platform Material Indicators, argued that a defense of the 50-day SMA at $81,570 would be a key indicator of overall demand.“So far, repeated defenses of the 50-Day show that buyers are still protecting this range,” he commented in a post on X.Alan noted that the 21-day SMA at $83,230 was now acting as low-time frame resistance.BTC/USD one-day chart with 21, 50 SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

XRP inflows to exchanges have hit seven-month highs as more than 6 billion tokens were deposited in the last 30 days.Key points:Rolling 30-day inflows to exchanges hit 6 billion XRP on Oct. 19, their highest value in seven months.The 90-day moving average of whale outflows fell to $49.7 million, its lowest levels in five years, as analysts see a lack of interest in the XRP/USDT pair.The realized profit/loss ratio has dropped 41% in October as rangebound trading conditions return.XRP whale interest absent as exchange inflows climb: AnalysisNew research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals that on a rolling 30-day basis, XRP exchange inflows are at their highest since March.In the 30 days to Oct. 19, inflows totaled 6.05 billion XRP and have doubled since mid-August. During this time, XRP/USD increased from around $1 to a maximum of $1.70 before correcting to the current levels around $1.30.“The rise in total inflows to more than 6 billion XRP, reaching a seven-month high, signals a clear shift in asset movement toward exchanges. This could reflect increased trading activity and liquidity on these platforms, or a rise in the movement of XRP between wallets and exchanges,” CryptoQuant commented.XRP exchange inflows (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantFurther analysis covering exchange withdrawals from whales shows that XRP is “attracting less and less attention.” CryptoQuant suggests that large-volume investors may be waiting for more advantageous prices before increasing exposure.The 90-day moving average of whale outflows hit a high of $3.5 billion in February 2025, shortly after XRP’s all-time high at $3.40. Since then, whale outflows are down 98.6% and the 90-day moving average currently stands at $49.7 million. This is its lowest value since October 2021.“From a long-term perspective, this suggests XRP could lack buying volume without whale support,” CryptoQuant commented while acknowledging XRP’s “notable resilience” during the 2026 crypto bear market.XRP whale exchange outflows (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantBitcoin rangebound price action eases profit-takingOnchain data confirms that Bitcoin investors also stepped back in October as BTC/USD traded within a range between $80,000 and $87,000.Related: Stocks rebound into key tech earnings: Three things to know in Bitcoin this weekIn its latest Market Pulse bulletin released on Monday, crypto analytics platform Glassnode reported reduced profit-taking across the Bitcoin investor base. The realized profit/loss ratio dropped from 0.8 to 0.4, a decrease of 50%, over the past week.“This contrast demonstrates that profit realized activity cooled relative to loss realization onchain, highlighting a transition toward more subdued sentiment and diminished aggressive spending by market participants,” Glassnode summarized.Bitcoin realized profit/loss ratio (screenshot). Source: Glassnode