CryptoHarlem founder Matt Mitchell says government and corporate surveillance and citizens’ inability to protect against it are great threats to personal security.
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Crypto markets crumbled for a second day as the fallout from FTX’s liquidity troubles continued to negatively impact investor sentiment. Bitcoin (BTC) price fell to a new yearly low at $16,800 as anonymous unconfirmed sources suggested that after a closer review of FTX’s books, Binance could back out of their agreement to acquire the beleaguered exchange. Crypto market performance. Source: Coin360.comOther factors having a potential impact on the market is a wave of successive liquidations in Solana’s DeFi markets. Earlier in the day, Crypto.com exchange emailed its users to inform them that all Solana blockchain-based USDC deposits were suspended A notice on the Crypto.com website also said: “Please be informed that we have suspended deposits and withdrawals of the USDC and USDCT on the Solana Blockchain in the Crypto.com App and Exchange.”At the time of writing, Solana (SOL) price is down 34% and trades at $16.10. FTX’s native FTX Token (FTT) is also 32% down on the day and trades for $3.78Daily liquidations data from Coinglass shows $832 million in total liquidations over the past 24-hours, and many traders expect the figure to increase. Total daily crypto market liquidations. Source: CoinglassRelated: Galaxy Digital discloses $77M exposure to FTX, $48M likely locked in withdrawalsThe views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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On this week’s episode of Market Talks, we welcome Jake, also known as “Korean Jew Crypto” on Twitter and the founder of “The Trading Dojo,” a platform that provides quality coaching and education to help traders identify profitable trades on their own. The wide reaching interview covered KJ’s take on how to trade the Federal Open Markets Committee and Consumer Price Index events, along with his views on how Federal Reserve policy is impacting crypto prices. According to KJ: “In regards to what Powell said, and the way the news cycle has been, a few weeks ago I was adamant that something has changed. I was quite bearish and expecting a support break for BTC, ETH and everything else. We got the dip on Friday that swept everyone out of the tight range but it was immediately bought back…Bullard from the Fed had some bullish things to say and we reclaimed the support and held on with nice volume, as well as in stocks. I said to my friends and the dojo, something is different. That was supposed to breakdown but there were buyers there. The market just feels very different.” When asked about whether or not Dogecoin’s (DOGE) recent 100%+ pump is a one-off or a sign of a wider trend change, KJ said: “I feel there’s something bigger behind it, personally. When you’re comparing structure, even thorough price rejected at a certain level, it’s actually starting to look quite bullish to me. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a reflation trade where price goes up to like $0.55, comes down and then marks up again.” KJ suggested that Elon’s new leadership of Twitter “people are speculating that there is going to be some sort of DOGE integration involved. I think it’s a reasonable speculation actually.” Is the market bottom in? In regards to a wider turn around in sentiment, investors’ appetite for risk and the crypto market carving out a bottom, KJ explained that DOGE’s recent bullish price action is: “Showing that there’s a greed element that is there again. In the past the DOGE move would have gotten sold off, somewhat immediately, not the numbers that it did. We might have got a 20% move that was sold off by the end of the day. Litecoin as well also shows greed in the market and risk taking behavior and this risk, in my opinion, is not being taken by “normies” yet. These are more powerful players that are willing to do so.”To hear more alpha from KJ, tune in to Market Talks here, and come back every Thursday at 12:00 pm ET to hear feature interviews with some of the most influential and inspiring people from the crypto and blockchain industry. Head on over to Cointelegraph’s YouTube page and smash those Like and Subscribe buttons for all our future videos and updates.The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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Bitcoin’s (BTC) lack of volatility has been the dominant discussion point among traders for the past two weeks and the current sideways trading within the $18,000 to $25,000 range has been in effect for 126 days. A majority of traders agree that a significant price move is imminent, but exactly what are they basing this thesis on? Let’s take a look at three data points that predict a spike in Bitcoin volatility. Muted volatility and seller exhaustionAccording to Glassnode research, the “Bitcoin market is primed for volatility,” with on- and off-chain data flashing multiple signals. The researchers note that 1-week realized volatility has fallen to 28%, a level that is typically followed by a sharp price move. Bitcoin 1-week realized volatility. Source: glassnodeExploration of Bitcoin’s aSOPR, a metric which “measures an average realized profit/loss multiple for spent coins on any given day” shows: “A large divergence is currently forming between price action, and the aSOPR metric. As prices trade sideways or decline, the magnitude of losses that being locked in are diminishing, indicating an exhaustion of sellers within the current price range.”Bitcoin adjusted SOPR. Source: glassnodeIn addition to the divergence between the price and the adjusted SOPR, short-term Bitcoin holders are approaching their breakeven level as the short-term holder SOPR approaches 1.0. This is significant because a reading of 1.0 during a bear market has historically functioned as a level of resistance and there is a tendency for traders to exit their positions near breakeven. If the aSPOR were to crest above 1.0 and turn the level to support, it could be an early sign of a fledgling trend change within the market. Bitcoin short term holder SOPR. Source: glassnodeTrading indicators are also at pivot pointsMultiple technical analysis indicators are also flashing a signal that a strong directional move is in the cards, a point noted by independent market analyst Big Smokey. According to the analyst: Bitcoin price range, SuperGuppy and Bollinger Bands are getting real tight. ETH looks the same. You know what that means. pic.twitter.com/e7s6ScG7jz— Big Smokey (@big_smokey1) October 18, 2022Crypto research firm Delphi Digital recently issued a similar perspective, citing “compression” within the Guppy Multiple Moving Average as a sign of “shorter-term momentum and the potential for a rally as this cohort attempts to flip the longer-term moving averages.” On Oct. 10, Delphi Digital researchers referenced the Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) metric and suggested the possibility of “a big move brewing for BTC.” The researchers explained that “historically, BBWP readings above 90 or below 5 have marked major swing points.”BTC price and Bollinger Band Width Percentile. Source: Delphi DigitalRelated: Bitcoin mirrors 2020 pre-breakout, but analysts at odds whether this time is differentThe state of Bitcoin derivativesCrypto derivatives markets are also flashing multiple signals. Bitcoin futures open interest has reached an all-time high of 633,000 contracts, while trading volumes have plummeted to a multi-year low of $24 billion daily. Glassnode notes that these levels were “last seen in December 2020, before the bull cycle had broken through the 2017 cycle $20K ATH.” Bitcoin futures open interest. Source: glassnodeAs one would expect during a bear cycle, liquidity, or the amount of money flowing in and out of the market, has declined, re-enforcing the reason for believing that an eventual spike in volatility could result in a sharp price move. While derivatives metrics like futures open interest, long liquidations and coin margined futures open interest are breaking multi-year records, it’s important to note that neither provide absolute certainty on market directionality. It’s difficult to determine whether a majority of market participants are positioned long or short and most analysts will suggest that the surge in open interest is reflective of hedging strategies that are in play. One thing that is certain is that on-chain data, derivatives data and basic technical analysis indicators all point toward an impending explosive move in Bitcoin price. Bitcoin’s current prolonged period of low volatility is somewhat unusual, but reviewing the data presented by glassnode and Delphi Digital could provide valuable insight on what to expect when certain on-chain metrics hit specific thresholds and this should give investors some ideas on how to position. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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On Oct. 4 and 5, Bitcoin (BTC) took another step through the $20,000 mark, bringing the price above a long-term descending trendline that stretches all the way back to April 22 or Nov. 15, depending on one’s style of technical analysis.Some traders might be feeling a bit celebratory now that the price trades outside of the descending trendline, but have any relevant metrics or macro factors changed enough to support a bullish point of view for Bitcoin price? In reality, BTC price simply “consolidated” its way through the trendline by trading in a sideways manner where price has been range bound between $18,500 and $24,500 for the past 114 days. BTC/USDT. Source: TradingViewDirection-wise, Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) tend to trade in tandem with equities, and BTC’s Oct. 4 rally to $20,365 comes as the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed the day with 2% to 3% gains.BTC, ETH and S&P 500 correlations. Source: Coin MetricsAs a reminder that short-term price action is not necessarily reflective of a larger trend change, Coin Metrics said: “Correlations among BTC, ETH and with the S&P 500 have increased recently as the benchmark index fell in price to 3600, which had not been breached since December of 2020.”Despite the Oct. 4 “all-in rally” in stocks and crypto markets, larger fears of global runaway inflation, rising interest rates and other economic concerns continue to suppress investors’ appetite for interacting with markets, a fact that is clearly reflected in Q3 results. Q3 2022 asset performance. Source: Coin MetricsOn Oct. 5, OPEC announced plans to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day, which is roughly equivalent to 2% of the global oil demand. Oil stocks rallied at the announcement, but the White House is likely concerned that the reductions will complicate the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation and possibly contribute to higher petrol prices. Generally, institutional investors like Citi and Goldman Sachs expect volatility in equities markets to continue, and both have revised down their end-of-year targets for the S&P 500, while investors are still predicting a down year in 2023. All said, inflation remains high across the globe, corporate earnings expectations are being adjusted to the downside, and the Fed appears confidently resolute in its current plans for reducing inflation. None of these developments are conducive to boosting investors’ risk sentiment, and given Bitcoin’s correlation with equities markets and sensitivity to bearish economic news flow, it seems unlikely that BTC breaking through the descending trendline is a sign of a trend change. A more convincing development would be a range-break and a series of daily closes above $25,000. The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
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