Autor Cointelegraph By Ray Salmond

Increased activity across Bitcoin’s (BTC) futures markets is playing the dominant role in its short-term price action, which keeps tracing back to where leveraged positions are stacked. Prices tend to gravitate toward where liquidity is most concentrated, and as Bitcoin battles to hold above $64,000, reviewing current liquidation scenarios may provide insight into BTC’s next move. Liquidation heatmap data shows a cluster of short positions concentrated between $65,500 and $66,000, roughly 3% away from current market pricing. A push through $65,600 may put that shelf in play and could accelerate a larger rally toward $67,000.Below market pricing, support is layered in the $63,500 to $63,750 range, with the closest cluster 1% away, and larger liquidity pools are found at $63,000-$63,250 (about 1.5% down) and $62,500-$62,750 (about 2.3% down). Combined, long-side liquidity across the tracked window outweighs short-side liquidity by nearly two to one, potentially signaling that the bulk of a leverage built up over the past month hasn’t fully closed out.BTC liquidation heatmap, 1-month lookback. Source: Hyblock In the most bearish scenario, a wide liquidation band near $55,000 (which has built up over the full month lookback) is visible and stands out more than almost anything else on the chart. This magnet could exert its pull on price if support in the $62,500 to $63,750 were to give way.The last few weeks of price action suggest that Bitcoin may remain rangebound between $60,000 and $67,000, and BTC’s aggregate open interest and funding rate back this view. BTC spot and cumulative volume flows. Source: HyblockWhile OI has come down more than 3% from Tuesday’s peak, BTC price has barely moved, and as funding cooled toward neutral, spot and futures flows have favored the buy side over the past week. 

Bitcoin (BTC) spent the week split across two scenarios. One highlighted improving onchain buying pressure and ETF inflows, while the other remained synced to sentiment gauges and news events that projected fear.The spot and futures cumulative volume delta, a running tally of buy and sell orders, confirmed a $925 million net buying day for Bitcoin on July 15. This orderbook activity absorbed the entire post-CPI pullback in open interest and price rather than collapsing into it. Meanwhile, the spot Bitcoin ETFs added $107.7 million in net inflows on July 15, marking the second consecutive positive day following $181 million on July 14.Bitcoin price, funding, open interest. Source: Hyblock Funding rates spent most of the past week between 0.10% and 0.22%, then cooled sharply to 0.048%. Paired with open interest down 3.4% from Tuesday’s peak, this suggests leverage unwinding without a corresponding price decline, as Bitcoin was down only about 1.5% over the same stretch. This suggests that the longs deleveraging are simply stepping back from the post-CPI trade to adjust for Bitcoin hitting its local range highs near $65,000 to $66,000. Despite the traction in spot, futures, and ETF markets, market sentiment has yet to catch up. The Fear & Greed Index sits near 26, still in “Fear” territory, despite Bitcoin’s roughly 4.4% bounce off its recent $62,100 low. For traders that use the metric in a contrarian sense, positive flows holding up while sentiment stays depressed has historically been a more durable setup than a rally where sentiment has already priced in. An alternate interpretation is that real risk-off events remain present on the horizon. This week the US war in Iran resumed, oil prices shot above $85 and projections for a Fed rate hike by September 2026 remain above 44%. The positive data for the week do not confirm a change in trend. Yes, two days of confirmed buying are notable, but they are not decisive. Currently, funding is cooling toward neutral, spot ETF flows remain negative for the year, and a cluster of long liquidations sits roughly 1.5% below the current price ($63,200).